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Lineal v Exponential Technological growth...

I used to own both, but gave them to a friend... I think that I have a pdf of Book 8 on a disk around here somehwere.

I found the system to be pretty antiquated by 2000, not to even mention now...
 
Originally posted by Matthew Bailey:
... it helps to have a human face and body attached to the interface between human and machine...
Matthew,

That's the same thinking that led to earlier automobiles being 'gussied up' to look like horses. The idea was not to scare the horses and to make them more acceptable to people. The whole 'horse-form' idea lasted about a generation until people got used to the idea and horses were supplanted. The first robots that interact with people will be humano-form or whatever, after that there won't be any need.

These are not dumb people... They are Phd's and the current leaders in computer, AI and Robotics technology, inventors of most of the computer technology that we take for granted.
I didn't say they were dumb. However, they've been able to predict the future about as well as anyone else, that is to say very poorly.

Machines are never used exactly how their inventors thought they would be. Edison thought the phonograph would be used primarily by the blind, microwaves were supposed to cook entire Thanksgiving dinners not popcorn, computers were supposed to usher in the 'paperless' office (ROFLMAO), and no one involved in Arpanet forsaw the Internet's most profitable use; distributing ⌧ography on demand. There will be multi-functional robots in use 20 years from now and they'll primarily be used in ways that you simply cannot predict.

Their combined opinion is that by the middle of this century (2020 to 2140 respectively) we will undergo such an enormous phase shift that humanity will essentially be at the end of its era as rulers of the world. In short... It will be the end of manknd as we now know it.
The Singularity is old, old news. Even the fellow who popularized the term, Vinge, has backed away from most of the assumptions surrounding it.

Things will change, things always change, and they'll change in ways you cannot foresee.

In terms of Traveller... It is going to make the game look quite out of date in years to come...
Traveller was out of date technologically before it first left the printing press. I don't know of anyone who seriously considers it a 'guide' to the future. It's a game and should be seen as such. The 'explanations' we post here for this or that aspect of the 57th Century are explanations meant for in-game use and not serious predictions of the future.


Have fun,
Bill
 
Originally posted by Matthew Bailey:
I used to own both, but gave them to a friend... I think that I have a pdf of Book 8 on a disk around here somehwere.

I found the system to be pretty antiquated by 2000, not to even mention now...
What exactly did you find antiquated about it? It allows building robots of the type you find missing from Traveller (and 101 Robots contains many examples of such) and it has the AI you wanted as well.
From anthropomorphic butlerbots to full-fledged robot hospitals, the works.
The one thing I found lacking was that it didn't really address miniaturization - a decent robot AI would still have to be desktop-PC size - but as far as capabilities go, it was pretty much far out.
 
Originally posted by Bill Cameron:
Machines are never used exactly how their inventors thought they would be. Edison thought the phonograph would be used primarily by the blind, microwaves were supposed to cook entire Thanksgiving dinners not popcorn, computers were supposed to usher in the 'paperless' office (ROFLMAO), and no one involved in Arpanet foresaw the Internet's most profitable use; distributing ⌧ography on demand. There will be multi-functional robots in use 20 years from now and they'll primarily be used in ways that you simply cannot predict.
Hey, I used my microwave to cook an entire Thanksgiving dinner, once! But Bill's absolutely right. Humans are supremely adaptable creatures who seem to take a perverse delight in finding ever new ways to (ab)use tools and toys, especially those of the emergent technology variety, in ways their developers never intended. Humans also seem to delight in making (often outlandish) predictions, the vast majority of which will never come to pass. Both are examples of the human need to have control over our world(s). It is human nature.

Robots, by definition (in Czech, robota means slave), are designed solely to relieve the labor load of their creators. They are appliances, even when they are high-functioning ones. The moral and ethical line which is crossed when AI forms a true cyborg removes this being from the category of robot and places it in the sophont class, subject to legal standing with the same rights and responsibilities as other sophonts. And that is when the real headaches begin...
 
Originally posted by Arthur hault-Denger:
[...]
Robots, by definition (in Czech, robota means slave), are designed solely to relieve the labor load of their creators. They are appliances, even when they are high-functioning ones. The moral and ethical line which is crossed when AI forms a true cyborg removes this being from the category of robot and places it in the sophont class, subject to legal standing with the same rights and responsibilities as other sophonts. And that is when the real headaches begin...
...and headaches in Traveller parlance means "plot hooks". In this special case, it can also mean "character generation".
 
A point well made... An AI should be in the "Player Character class", as should other forms of non-biological substrate sophonts...

Still, I have found these to ve pretty lacking...

Now, onto the subject of wild predictions:

Have you read much Kurzweil. His predictions seem somwhat far fetched, but his past predictions have been pretty much spot on. Maybe his past success is getting the better of him, but the case that he makes for our current and future tech trends seems to be pretty well supported from all I have seen... I can show most of it to anyone who wants to take the time to read all of the materials.
 
Yes, he is the same guy, he also invented the optical scanner, speech to text, and text to speech systems,a s well as predicting the rise of the internet in the mid-90's as well as several other things that have come to pass (Chess computer beating a human chess master in 1999, except that it actually happened two years earlier than he predicted, cars being driven by computers before 2010 - already happening, and so on).

He also has a lot to say about the specific predictions about the future.

You cannot for instance predict who will be the developer fo a piece of technology, or what type of technology will eventually be the specific driving force for a certain application (memory, CPUs, Power Generation, etc), but that they ALL appear to be on an unbroken line of continuous increasing capabilities. When one technological pradigm begins to hit an asymptotic wall, another paradigm will take over for it.

To take a few specific cases:

In the case of internal combustion engines for example: First was the deisel, then gasoline spark ignition engines, then along came turbo adn supercharging of those same technologies, then came Turbines, and MHD turbines, Ramjets, Scramjets, etc. Each continuing the increase of capabilities until the paradigm of their use switches to another paradigm, say that of electric motors of some sort, which will slowly replace internal combustion engines and continue to develop in capability. Eventually, you will only see internal combustion engines in applications where there is some sort of aesthetic behind the application.

Or, take for instance, bateries. They began as large Leyton Jars, full of acid. Eventually they were replaced by slightly safer batteries that were enclosed, but still basically a leyton jar. Then the dry cell was invented as the capabilities of the Liquid cell were beginning to reach their max... Then hybrid cells that contained the properties of both. Now we see Lithium and other alloy batteries that exceed the capabilities of both earlier paradigms, and even there the alloyed-core battery is being overtaken by nano-scaled developments of the older paradigms, which when applied to the alloy-core batteries will again put them in a position to be able to provide more power with less hear, in a smaller package.

The same thing is true of semi-condutors. First came mechanical relays, then vacuum tubes, then the solid-state transistor, then integrated circuits, and lithographed chips, and so on... Each paradigm giving way to a new one when the previous one began to see an asymptote appear. At a fine scale you will see the "s' curves, but when plotted on a scale of years to decades, the progression remains firmly exponential.
 
Originally posted by Matthew Bailey:
At a fine scale you will see the "s' curves, but when plotted on a scale of years to decades, the progression remains firmly exponential.
Do you have a link to an example? I hear this type of statement fairly often and would like to see a real example of it. I have trouble imagining a progression where the delta T between paradigms becomes infinitely small or where capabilities begin to approach the infinite. It might help to see the real thing.
 
Originally posted by Matthew Bailey:
...

Have you read much Kurzweil. His predictions seem somwhat far fetched, but his past predictions have been pretty much spot on. Maybe his past success is getting the better of him, but the case that he makes for our current and future tech trends seems to be pretty well supported from all I have seen...
Originally posted by atpollard:
Looks like the same guy:
Kurzweil
[in my best Vulcan accent] Fascinating!

It is the same fellow: what a Renaissance Man.
 
I will need to dig through his web-site, and there is one in his recent book... It will be the same one that is on his web-site though...

I am leaving to go back to TX in the morning, so If I cannot find it tonight, I will call him and ask him where to look...
 
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