Arsulon sez--
"Brilliant work Liam. So it looks like the RC Expeditionary Force cuts its teeth on the vampires while Solee edges ever closer, knocking the wind out of the Guild and absorbing non-aligned worlds to coreward of the RC."
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Between Solee and the RC, the Guild in Thoezennt-Shenk-Karse subsectors is doomed. Many turnb "Free Trader" to escape being "co-opted" (Solee), or Attacked-captured (RC)= one and the same thing
. Deprived of of their TEd markets by Soleean TKHL shipping (out of Jayna subsector-GALINES/ CZERNIAK), the GUild is economically facing a losing war (and losing ships fast too!).
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"Based on your calculations, do you think Solee would use its time to consolidate its holdings and build up thier fleet, or go for a sucker punch while the RC is busy with the vampires?"
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Solee's actions IMTU are based on gathered Intelligence (see also, Spies -subversion (August Delparo- "Death of Wisdom" (estranged hubby of the RCS Hornet's ship's DR., owner of Novastar INC- they make the freshers for the RCN btw..!
)/ Shadowing RC vessels in the RC "AO" of Thoezennt-Shenk-Karse). By my calculations, anyone with presumptions of making good n "margaret's Dream" of re-expansionism (in imperiacl sense) would go for the Build up first. The rapid growth of their "empire" is outpacing their ability to defend it. Sucker punching is tempting, but the Prime targets Oriflamme & Aubaine have heavy SDB forces insystem! (and sensors, insats/ survsats to relay when a foe approaches). The shorter supply line for them in Shenk places the RC into using its J-4 recovered engine ships to the max, while they plug about at J-1 & J-2. My SOlee uses their SDB-Monitors as Battle riders (Or why else did I buy the box set?? Why else did GDW add in an RC-Solee battle (btw I ran that, and the clippers got pasted by Soleean Missile barrages! Yeah, the Sollies took some meson hits from the manticore LBRs, but the Sollies understand BR technique--they have to use it themselves with their dearth of Jump-fleet ships to make the empire "work".). The bad news for the Soleeans, they can't afford to lose ships--the RC can, they have more A-class yards by 1204 than Solee does, and beter tech in sensors, and missiles (thanks to the "helpful" HIvers (smug rubbish eaters that they be!)
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"The RC has an impossibly broad front (coreward) to defend along, which Solee could take advantage of by launching a series of probing attacks to mask the "big push" into the soft "safe" of the coalition. It seems to me that Solee's message in 1202 was intended to test the RC's political will rather than act as a casus belli.
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We share the same conclusion in that act (Marathon Victrix incident-DEC-1201/Jan 1202). Like China holding the Orion Recon ASW plane in Dubya's first six months, a test of wills.
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In a way, this is virgin territory for the RC as they have had little opportunity to interact with other stellar polities. Their "foreign policy", for lack of a better term, assumes that there are NO OTHER spacefaring states out there, but rather isolated, backward planets. I wonder what contact with Solee and Sufren will do to the Centrist-Feralist debate?
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IMTU, the neutral ground for Solee and RC to discuss talks was Mueller/Shenk. Sufren's existence becomes known by March 1202, wih return of the crew of the DLS "Lady Elise" (see Canon CINET releases CHallenge Magazine/ Vampire Fleets).
Outside of Solee (a hostile polity), the RC had no friendly polity contact. I ran the RCS Belladona throught o completeion by 01 April, with an all volunteer crew (as warships got the first cut as trouble with sOlee was brewing up), and arrived at SUfrem 06 June 1202. Returned by 02 September 1202 with the AVV weapon, "Snake". In October, the previous campaign (96-99) My guys and gals (6 & 2) had done the VF adventures, so in October 1202 I kicked off "Operation Free Promise".
What did it do for the Centrist-Federalist debate? Thats a planet by Planet/ subsector by subsector question to answer. In "Spinward Distractions" I discuss something of this, Khulam was rife with lo pop but freindly worlds towards the RC. (UPon recognition which was a federalist policy, they would demand uplifting--a centrist policy, build up of infrastructure, etc.) Solee targeted where they went, the RC had to do the same, or have a bazillion worlds under her banner, of which maybe less than a third could contribute serious manpower and tech (TL-7 minimum+) towards re-expansion of Space.
Thats some of your answer.
Promise itself (TL-9), became a new venture in several ways...It COULD support the effort to retake the stars (along with Exeter & Eloji TL-8 worlds, Daaliisia TL-7), the rest of the main needed help--but Promise with the "Freebots" (sons of Sandman)would become a mini polity allied "buffer state for a while, while the RC Kicked Soleean butt, and managed Hiver escorted convoys towards sufren 1203-onwards). A Second mini polity in Khulam-Madoc arose, called Shield (based on Richard perks (RichardP here on Coti) of BITs fame in the UK), and this meshed with my view of "what to do with the lo-pop worlds." The RC found an ally with a TL-9-7 space programme, tenuously holding this region versus the Guild and Vampires, and Shield allwed them to turn to corewards.
Sufren never contacted Solee (as a matter of "foreign policy"). ALthough ships from Sufren do picture in my "divestment of the SSE" in late 1204-early 1205 projections from across Khavle & Pasdaruu subsectors.
It is after he RC and Regency meet in 1206 when the Vampires from Core realize something is making a comeback rimwards of them, and "decide" to deal with it. Here I lean towards MJD's OTU pick up.
That's me answer.
Liam Devlin,TNE-HIC
(Traveller New Era-Heretic in Chief)