Resource Scarcity in the Far Future
- Thread starter Bartleby
- Start date
I agree. However the real issue is "Relative Plenty". If you want to see something interesting ...
- Locate a chart of the relative abundance of elements in the Universe (or Solar System). This will give you the Fair Market Value of each element based on abundance/scarcity on the WHOLE MARKET.
- Now locate a chart of the relative abundance of elements in the EARTH'S CRUST. This will serve as a first approximation of the COST of each element mined on the world. Compare the two lists and see which elements are far more abundant in the CRUST than the solar system in general. These elements are cheaper to mine on the planet and export to other worlds/colonies. The greater the difference the greater the profit. Compare the two lists and see which elements are far more abundant in the SOLAR SYSTEM than the CRUST. These elements are cheaper to import than to mine on the planet. The greater the difference the greater the profit.
- Now locate a chart of the relative abundance of elements in the EARTH'S MANTLE/CORE. This will serve as a first approximation of the COST of each element mined on an ASTEROID. Compare the two lists and see which elements are far more abundant in the ASTEROID than the solar system in general. These elements are cheaper to mine on the ASTEROID and export to worlds/colonies. The greater the difference the greater the profit. Compare the two lists and see which elements are far more abundant in the SOLAR SYSTEM than the ASTEROID. These elements are cheaper to import than to mine locally. The greater the difference the greater the profit.
- If you really want to get fancy, go find a chart about how elements are created. Which rare elements are created by White Dwarfs and which by Supernovas. Those elements will get a boost in abundance (lower COST) in systems with White Dwarfs or located in Nebula.
The idea of people "creating elements" is a red herring. We can "create" GOLD now and have created several man-made elements ... but that is not economical when there are far less expensive ways to do it. Hydrogen can be created from water, but is created from OIL instead because it is cheaper to create chemically than by electrolysis. Economics will not change. Creating matter from energy is post TL 16 (I don't remember the exact TL), so the Imperium is not "post scarcity".
Yes we have had that discussion here before too, one of the longer ones in the Beltstrike thread.
That argument is persuasive from today's technology, but we dont need to create matter from energy (TL16 you say?) to replace mining with a lab.
Already at our paltry tech levels, it is more economical to get diamonds from a lab than the ground. How much more so will it be when we have unlimited fusion power and can manipulate the fundamental atomic forces, gravity, and inertia in something the size of a car by TL13 (in CT)
Sure, this is all under-specified but claiming mining "atoms" is important given that technology seems... whats the phrase, makes my suspenders snap? Introduce some handwavium deep-sub-atomic property that we have to go find and those same suspenders are just fine. At least mine are.
Not me, it was The Traveller Book (and the LBB1-3 before that) which placed "disintegration" and "matter transport" at TL 16 ... that is where you disassemble matter and put it back together ... what YOU advocate as ubiquitous technology to render mineral extraction superfluous.
It seems disingenuous to describe compressing coal (carbon) to create diamond (carbon), throw in the word "handwavium", and suddenly equate that with compressing coal to create Lanthanum.
"Disingenuous" is a provocative choice of words. I would say the diamond example is analogous to your cracking water example. Neither is what we are positing, both are things that happen today at our low tech,
My use of the term " handwavium" in this case is not about tech. B4 & B5 are explicit about controlling the strong nuclear force. If you can do that (and have all the other grav & energy tech of the setting) then fusing or splitting atoms to order is easy. I dont need "matter transport" or "disintegration" for that.
The "handwave" part is about asserting there is something below the standard model that all the tech doesnt help with so you still have to go mine it.
You may have the last word, lest I repeat too much
(and lets not think to hard about makers and what they render obsolete. Why is there trade at all when there are makers?)
My use of the term " handwavium" in this case is not about tech. B4 & B5 are explicit about controlling the strong nuclear force. If you can do that (and have all the other grav & energy tech of the setting) then fusing or splitting atoms to order is easy. I dont need "matter transport" or "disintegration" for that.
The "handwave" part is about asserting there is something below the standard model that all the tech doesnt help with so you still have to go mine it.
You may have the last word, lest I repeat too much
(and lets not think to hard about makers and what they render obsolete. Why is there trade at all when there are makers?)
mike wightman
SOC-14 10K
Makers are general purpose construction machines, the range of things they can construct is huge but:
they are slower than bespoke manufactories
they require processed raw materials
they are energy intensive
they are slower than bespoke manufactories
they require processed raw materials
they are energy intensive
We can create GOLD today by bombarding Atoms ... that is not how the world gets its supply of gold. Being TECHNOLOGICALLY POSSIBLE is not the same as being the most economical means of production. [That was the point about creating Hydrogen. It has been POSSIBLE to create hydrogen with Electricity and Water since the 1800's ... TL 3-4 ... but even at TL 7-8 Hydrogen is still produced in COMMERCIAL quantities from Oil because it is cheaper.]
That same "controlling the strong nuclear force" and "other grav & energy tech of the setting" will also make separating minerals into COMMERCIAL elements cheaper and easier, so mining has every chance to remain lower cost than manufacturing elements from Hydrogen [the most abundant element in the Universe] until TL 16 when matter to energy conversion becomes the norm.
Setting aside the "what ifs", if you are correct about creating elements, then ANYTHING is a feedstock and mining is superfluous [just scoop sand or skim a Gas Giant for raw matter] ... however, the TRAVELLER SETTING is quite clear that PROSPECTING exists as a skill and BELTER exists as a career, so mining must exist. If Mining EXISTS, then the setting itself tells us that ANYTHING is not feedstock to be converted into the desired element. In addition, with all elements manufactured and POWER essentially free (via fusion), all manufactured ELEMENTS should cost the same. The TRADE TABLE tells us that Gold, Silver, Copper and Iron do not cost the same ... indicating they were MINED rather than MANUFACTURED (so abundance impacts price).
... but if that is POST SINGULARITY, then the NEED for matter may be rendered obsolete. [Typical, right? Just when you can have whatever you want, you can't use anything! ... The SYSTEM is rigged against the little guy.
]I feel like you are missing my point, as your ate construing it to mean the opposite of what I writing.
A) Mining & trade & transport are important by canon;
B) Canon makes technology readily available that mining for types of atoms would not be important;
Ergo
C) What they are mining for is not something we describe at current tech/understandings if physics but something else. Otherwise we have a contradiction
A) Mining & trade & transport are important by canon;
B) Canon makes technology readily available that mining for types of atoms would not be important;
Ergo
C) What they are mining for is not something we describe at current tech/understandings if physics but something else. Otherwise we have a contradiction
Even with some kind of matter creation tech, and lots of energy, mining is liking still cheaper, especially for more abundant material.
Nobody is going to make IRON or SILICON out of water and carbon. That's a silly idea.
What may well happen, though, is the refining process become much more precise. Toss the raw ore into the processor, break it down into molecules, shatter the molecules into elements, sorta and collect them at the end. Even that has to be more efficient than converting Lead into Gold.
I am not familiar with makers. Are they a general sci-fi thing or does Traveller say something about them?
Well the OP us asking about scarcity.
If iron and silicon are what you are saying is the scarce thing needed for interstellar society, perhaps you just mine it, but then it isnt scarce. Those arent elements that justify the expense of an interstellar mining & transport megacorp.
I dont want to to repeat the whole thread, but to have scarcity in the setting, it has to be something more exotic. I suggest it has to be something more exotic than any atom.
mike wightman
SOC-14 10K
In a post scarcity society the only currency that matters is energy.
Is it cheaper to make the machines to make the elements you need or is it cheaper to sent a gravitic craft to use mining robots to dismantle asteroids with more mineral wealth than the entire Earth's crust?
Is it cheaper to make the machines to make the elements you need or is it cheaper to sent a gravitic craft to use mining robots to dismantle asteroids with more mineral wealth than the entire Earth's crust?
From the LBB2 Trade and Speculation Table:
- Radioactives = Cr 1,000,000
- Gems = Cr 1,000,000
- Special Alloys = Cr 200,000
- Silver = Cr 70,000
- Crystals = Cr 20,000
- Tin = Cr 9,000
- Copper = Cr 2,000
- Aluminum = Cr 1,000
- Steel = Cr 500
Spinward Flow
SOC-14 5K
I've been of the opinion for some time that starship fuel purification plants, in game play, border on alchemy. Big black box connected to pumps and fuel scoops; Ice, water, and/or GG atmo goes in; hydrogen and waste come out.
Krikkitone
SOC-12
Well there is more than just energy, there is “machine time”.
And based on how much machines need to be used to manufacture nucleosynthesized elements…or to refine them from poor ores, the amount of “machine-hours” needed to just find and mine high quality ores and jump them in are cheaper.
Spinward Flow
SOC-14 5K
If that's true ... then PETROLUEM REFINERIES ALSO border on alchemy!
The high octane gasoline you pour into your ground car ... that's the result of (borders on) alchemy!
"Big black (smoke and fire belching) box" connected to pumps and petroleum storage tanks; crude oil goes in; the following comes out:
- Gaseous fuel such as liquified petroleum gas and propane, stored and shipped in liquid form under pressure.
- Lubricants (produces light machine oils, motor oils, and greases, adding viscosity stabilizers as required), usually shipped in bulk to an offsite packaging plant.
- Paraffin wax, used in the candle industry, among others. May be shipped in bulk to a site to prepare as packaged blocks. Used for wax emulsions, candles, matches, rust protection, vapor barriers, construction board, and packaging of frozen foods.
- Sulfur (or sulfuric acid), byproducts of sulfur removal from petroleum which may have up to a couple of percent sulfur as organic sulfur-containing compounds. Sulfur and sulfuric acid are useful industrial materials. Sulfuric acid is usually prepared and shipped as the acid precursor oleum.
- Bulk tar shipping for offsite unit packaging for use in tar-and-gravel roofing.
- Asphalt used as a binder for gravel to form asphalt concrete, which is used for paving roads, lots, etc. An asphalt unit prepares bulk asphalt for shipment.
- Petroleum coke, used in specialty carbon products like electrodes or as solid fuel.
- Petrochemicals are organic compounds that are the ingredients for the chemical industry, ranging from polymers and pharmaceuticals, including ethylene and benzene-toluene-xylenes ("BTX") which are often sent to petrochemical plants for further processing in a variety of ways. The petrochemicals may be olefins or their precursors, or various types of aromatic petrochemicals.
- Gasoline
- Naphtha
- Kerosene and related jet aircraft fuels
- Diesel fuel and fuel oils
- Heat
- Electricity
- Over 6,000 items are made from petroleum waste by-products, including fertilizer, floor coverings, perfume, insecticide, petroleum jelly, soap, vitamin capsules (and many more).
But refining hydrogen out of a variety of feedstocks?
Hey, now ... let's not start dabbling in alchemy ...
