Ranke2 said:
Anyway, someone is storing and selling refined fuel and someone is providing annual maintenance ('Available' doesn't mean 'Well, we could provide this service but we're not gonna"). Although I do believe that it's possible to provide annual maintenance without a shipyard, I think you'd need one hell of a story to explain a mothballed shipyard right next to a functioning annual overhaul facility. Or a starship repair facility if you'll allow the implied 'repairs available'.
Taking Pop digit of 0 to mean 0-9 people: how many folks does it take to operate a pump or perform an overhaul?
A shipyard and refinery could be mothballed, but fuel tanks still have some refined fuel and the in-system beacon still advertises repairs and overhaul... still a Class A port by definition.
At least at the time of the last data update (survey)!
I've seen plenty of abandoned and mothballed facilities - large and expensive ones that just didn't pan out. All the local marketing and reference material didn't just magically get updated. In fact, in many cases, the people who would update such are the ones no longer around or financially capable - or have a vested interest in the truth not being advertised. Just as I've seen material stating a facility existed that never was completed or staffed. I've travelled extensively through the U.S. Atlases provided information about gas and hotel facilities. But that information is not always correct - more than once we've pulled off highways only to find derelict structures. Highways also have signs indicating fuel and lodging at an exit - again, I have seen those be no longer true (if they ever were in the first place...).
An abandoned system is not necessarily going to have updated records - by definition nobody goes there anymore. At least nobody who cares about keeping others informed. In the OTU one has the Grand Survey's - which makes dated information even more likely. Bear in mind, UWPs appear intended for use as an in-game prop - as much, if not more, than a meta-game design mechanic.
As to defending an abandoned facility... Who is going to steal a whole shipyard? :devil: In an abandoned system - who is going to care? More saliently to the point - who is going to record the fact and how is that going to get into the hands of PCs?
Now, I'm not even remotely suggesting this is the case for every Pop 0/Starport A. But it easily explains one or two per sector. We are talking about a game that officially has gravitics, FTL transport, and twice the number of pages devoted to Psionics as to Trade in the original rules (not to mention uplifted cat and dog style aliens in its official setting). Compared to handwaving away those - this doesn't even bend a pinky.
Ranke2 said:
I'm afraid your knowledge of probability math is letting you down. ...
Have no fears regarding my math skills!
'Taken together, those two rolls makes the outliers much rarer than the '..
rest of the data set. Which is what you were arguing the results should look like.
Now, if you had stated that a higher population should have a higher percentage of Class A starports -
that would not be supported by the probability built into the rules which we all know give equal odds of having a particular set of facilities at any given Starport regardless of any other factors.
I think we agree correlating population directly to Starport type is unsupportable. Making an indirect correlation work within the simplistic style of the rules and the limits of the UWP - I haven't seen a believable example.
Since nothing about the capacity of the Starport is mentioned - those facilities can amount to 1 ship serviced per year or even, well, none. Which works quite well in terms of the game and 'explaining' otherwise inexplicable results of the mechanics. The UWP is simply recording existence and supposed availability of facilities - for which a random number is a good choice at the fidelity of the data being given. If one takes into account capacity - then trade and and all the things that factor into that should be taken into account.
Taking Starport Type for what it is - not how it has been abused by Trade Systems that were tacked onto the game nearly ten years later... consider:
- All systems are designed to have a higher probability of offering repairs and some fuel (A-B-C).
- Not shipyards required for construction and annual maint. - since these are not directly related to trade.
- The mechanics make such available elsewhere.
- Original trade rules did not factor in Starport Type.
(That last, btw, was posted as a statement supporting the notion that, by design, Starport Type was not intended to be part of Trade rules - not a refuting of anything you posted directly.)
Ranke2 said:
Please point out where my chain of logic breaks and explain why.
Note, I wrote: 'Starport Type
does not in any way relate to capacity of a starport.' I stated what was, not what should be in a perfect system that factored in all related data elements. The fundamental problem with your 'proof' is that you presumed a given that does not exist. There are no Trade volumes in the original design.
Further, Trade only demands capacity. Sure it provides a services for starships market
potential, but there are a lot of other factors especially considering that potential exists as a non-local phenomena. One has to get to the ports along one or more connected routes where the
odds of needing the facilities and services exist equally well. (I.e. a match for the probabilities used in the mechanics.) Sure, one could argue that the high volume one in the nexus of several routes would be the more likely to have facilities. But that argument falls flat when other factors are considered - such as another nearby system already having a shipyard. Factor in the fact that a high population world may exist in a system that simply does not have the other resources desirable for creating and maintaining a shipyard. Not just metals, but financial capital as large trading volumes does not equate to profit margins nor being rich, just like a high population does not correlate to financial wealth. One needs Trade Volumes in Ships/Tonnage and Credits to address this part properly. This is not the purpose of the UWP, so this is not available at the time of World generation - and the game has to focus and start somewhere.
Some key economics points that are being glossed over:
- Fuel and a few weeks time is nothing compared to the cost of starship construction.
- Such cost is nothing compared to the investment in a shipyard.
- Shipyards are required for annual maintenance (which also is not cheap).
- Shipyards require resources other than just people - all the people in a system are useless if the metals, etc. are not available.
Additionally, a political and corporate climate has to exist that doesn't preclude the existence of a shipyard (since that is really what we are largely talking about with Starport Type).
I don't see the original rules as broken, so much as the follow on expansions to be faulty due to a misapplication of a defined data element. I'm not speaking about the OTU - I don't use it. It doesn't exist as a unified design, rather a hacked together conglomeration of various authors conceptions with its UWPs based on known flawed BASIC programming and historically poor data handling - which, to my knowledge, didn't have any consideration initially paid to trade volumes, trade routes, nor even explanation of any UWPs.
I understand your desire to see correlations, but existence of
facilities is not readily quantifiable, even if Trade volumes were known. Given the data set and probabilities to work with, I can't see any working correlations that would be any more believable. The best solution I see is to fix the later broken trade rules and vary the size of starports to accommodate trade volumes (hence correlating to population).
If you have a better solution within the context of single world generation - love to see it.
(As to me writing up unusual Starports, if I stop responding to forum posts maybe I'll have the time...
)