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Suppose the Toba super-eruption had been just a bit worse

Barrel

SOC-12
I've been reading about the eruption of a supervolcano in what is now Lake Toba in Indonesia about 70,000 years ago. It was supposedly the most powerful eruption in the last 25 million years. While the idea is controversial, many scientists think this caused a multiyear global volcanic winter that nearly caused the extinction of the human race. There is some evidence of a "genetic bottleneck" around that time. IIRC this is supported by evidence of a genetic bottleneck in lice, which because they depend on human hosts, would also have had a drastic population decline if the human population dropped catastrophically. You can read more about it here, if you like https://infogalactic.com/info/Toba_catastrophe_theory

Because I have Traveller on the brain, the question that occurred to me was: if this had been just a bit worse, and homo sapiens on Earth died out, how would this have changed the history of the OTU? This would have been after the Ancient period, so you would still have Vilani, Zhodani, Vargr, and a plethora of minor human races, but no Solomani to challenge the First Imperium.

Some thoughts:
--Ideas about the evolution of humaniti would remain really messed up. I'm sure the Vilani would eventually have found and colonized Earth, but it seems they would be uninterested in hunting about for fossilized bones.

--The Aslan
wouldn't have got jump drive from Terrans.

--If the Vilani do colonize Earth, it seems likely to eventually become a major world. After all, it suits humans so well! I think eventually terran microbes would adapt to take advantage of the now millions of human hosts, and Vilani medical science might not be up to the task. There could be enormous pandemics that sweep through the crumbling First Imperium at the speed of Jump 1. Might this precipitate the end of the Vilani empire? Could an alternate Long Night be brought on by smallpox or influenza?

--IIRC the Vilani were, for some reason not much interested in settling or exploiting Deneb or the Spinward Marches sectors, and while the Zhodani were aware of the First Imperium, they also were not much interested. Is there a minor (in the OTU) race from that area that might have discovered Jump Drive, or figured it out from a stray scout or free trader, and built up their own small polity in the power vacuum? The Darrians, maybe?

--How would things have gone differently on Darrian without the arrival of the Solomani fleet?

That's all I've got for now. Any thoughts?
 
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