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What does 'Commerce Raiding' entail?

Seriayne

SOC-12
Commerce raiding's something listed in a lot of Traveller scenarios as a wartime activity going on behind enemy lines. I've always pictured this as the equivalent of WWII convoy strikes by submarines - but I'm starting to wonder exactly how accurate that imagery fits the bill. I'm wondering what size task force, what size ships, where would they hit, and what are their limitations would be in a given engagement.

Are we talking massive trade ships only, supply ships only, anything caught without an escort belonging to the state they're warring with, or ignoring small fry and only looking for superfreighters and bulk cargo ships? Hitting civilian ships indiscriminately can function as a punitive action, but with empires like the Consulate, Julain Protectorate or the Solomani Confederation, wouldn't this activity work to prolong a war rather than shorten it?

Does 'commerce raiding' include, for the Imperium at least, Letters of Marque, legitimizing smaller pirate ships to enter enemy territory, or would the Imperial Navy frown on such things because it puts elements of the war outside of their control?

A little more specifically I'm interested in the major players of the 3rd and 5th Frontier Wars, and the Interstellar Wars era. My (still nascent) ideas.

Frontier Wars
Vargr
I'm pretty sure the vargr are pretty much 'shoot, loot and scoot' with any force consisting of less than 10k tons of task force tonnage, (and maybe even up to 150k-200k) if their leader's really into the whole romantic corsair image. Organized Vargr forces probably have a more 'by the book' proceedure for accepting surrender, prisoners, goods, or practice a wholesale 'scorched earth' policy to reduce enemy industrial/commerce effectiveness.

Imperial
I'm picturing small task forces, 1-3 cruiser sized ships working their way deep behind enemy lines, and hitting any jump capable trader they catch within their sights. Some commanders probably give the crew a warning to abandon ship' before its destroyed, though others might, if they're close to the Zhodani border, order a prize crew to board and jump the ship to extra-Imperial space - though I think this is less likely.

Industrial bombardment (if possible - I doubt that many worlds that close to the border wouldn't have a decent planetary picket and or surface defenses) would be limited to spinal mount or HE, non-nuclear, or at least very low nuclear yield bombardment. I think anything more would likely have dire consequences for ever coming to a peace agreement, and reparations demanded of either side would be crippling to either local economy otherwise. In essence, these are 'civilized' and limited wars - they're about taking and holding territory and limiting the other side's ability to wage war without reducing populations of any but the lowest pop worlds.

The whole Letters of Marque thing would be -very- rare, if even allowed by the powers that be, but I'd say the farther back you go in the Marches history, probably the more likely some romantic sector admiral might be willing to issue them to wealthy and capable individuals. After the war, the letters would be revoked and the privateers called home.

Zhodani
Strictly military, no Letters of Marque (the Vargr fill that role anyways), strictly strike, hit everything as hard as you can, retreat as fast as possible. Any target of opportunity will be considered, whether independent trader, Imperial megacorp*, or extra-Imperial merchant. (for ex: Sorry for that Aslan clan trader that got caught at Villis - you just were in the wrong place and the wrong time.)

Darrian
Strictly military strikes, and mostly only against the Sword's Worlds. While a few Darrian might be wealthy enough to own ships capable of committing 'sanctioned piracy', I doubt there are enough of them to provide a pool of willing privateers, and the Darrians might be a bit more cautious, being surrounded by a lot of no-man's land systems, of giving anyone a taste of the pirate's life - they might decide to continue after the wars are over, and smaller states may be easier to prey upon the trade of than larger ones.

Industrial raids, at least against the Swords Worlds would be a priority - their entire capability to wage war is immediately reachable by the Darrian Navy and any hole in Swords Worlds defenses could lead to orbital bombardment of industrial sites. The same would be reversed

Swords Worlds
We all go a-Viking? In some ways I'd see the Swords Worlds as even less predictable/organized than the Vargr. At the rumblings of any war every merchant that isn't arm is quickly loaded with missile turrets, or mothballed until the cessation of hostilities. Every captain with a sense of honor and the desire to bloody the nose of the Imperium will call upon his crew to join in punitive raids against the Impies and the Darrians - at least until a Swords Worlds task force absorbs them into their force as an auxiliary. Some less honorable, or grudge holding Swordies might even raid rival Sword worlds while everyone else is looking the other way. 'Letters of Marque' would likely be issued by individual worlds as opposed to the Confederation allied forces and may include some vagueness about who its legal to attack, for how long, and the conditions under which safe haven may be granted.

The Interstellar Wars


Terrans
During the Second Interstellar war the first commerce raids commenced, with individual Terran war ships engaging and either destroying or capturing small Vilani merchants, crewing their captures with prize crews and sending them back to Earth to be repurposed and/or studied.

Though never officially sanctioned, the Free Traders Foundation filled the function of privateers during the early Interstallar Wars (2130's or 3rd Interstellar war onward), and often got off with little more than fines back in Terran space if they escaped Imperial capture or destruction. A very few remained engaged in acts of piracy during the times of peace between the wars, and while a few were later sanctioned black ops and intelligence ships and forgiven their peace-time activities, others were treated with extreme prejudice by the Terran Navy and either destroyed or captured. In no case, however, were Confederation citizens extradited to Vilani space for trial.

Later wars saw a 'maturing' of strategy as the required number of ships became available to actually carry out blockades, planetary seiges, and commerce raiding and disruption well behind enemy lines. Task forces would be comprised of 3-5 ships perhaps, within the contemporary 'destroyer to light cruiser' range - 1k-5k tonnage each. By this time also, Terran Naval intelligence had begun to track Vilani supply lines and make surgical strikes against general commerce, supply worlds or convoys that would disrupt trade and logistics for parsecs around the target. The use of nuclear weapons against Terran cities during the 3rd War led to Terran diplomatic attempts at nuclear arms control with the Vilani that fell upon deaf ears.

Although the stops were pulled out for use of nuclear weapons against Imperial ground targets, the Terrans kept this practice to a minimum as more Vilani Kimashargur worlds defected toward the Terran side, with the majority of nuclear strikes reserved for strictly military or military industrial production sites.

Imperial
Commerce raiding perse' was less a Vilani policy by the Interstellar Wars than an arrogance of total interdiction, misjudging how thoroughly porous their frontier had become. During times of border interdiction, Terran ships that were caught were ordered to surrender unconditionally, or simply destroyed. During wars where the Vilani were on the offensive, no distinction between military and civilian shipping was made. If they were barbarians, and they didn't take the fleet too far out of the way from its target, it was destroyed. The first five Interstellar Wars weren't even viewed as 'wars' by the Imperium, being too small to even register more than a subsector away from the front.

As free traders made a shambles of millenia old monopolies and trade controls, any Terran merchant came to be seen as guilty until proven innocent, stopped boarded and impounded until everything cleared with local Imperial authorities - or until said authorities had been properly paid off. Over time, arrangements were arrived at and local governments would often order their patrols to stand down or allow certain companies or individual ships to land unmolested.

When naval assets were rotated in, oft times such worlds would be 'reset' and either written off temporarily or a new regimen of bribery and/or 'understandings' would eventually be hammered out. Some of these worlds would remain friendly to Terrans even during the Interstellar Wars if Imperial Naval presence was busy elsewhere or even had bigger fish to fry locally. Some Terran ships would even become falsely registered under the local Bureaux and be recognized as Imperial ships, operating 'legally' inside Vilani space for years.



Thoughts, alterations, comments, addendums?
 
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Ah, forgot the asterix *

Do some truly 'international' Megacorps manage to negotiate 'neutrality' clauses with major empires to avoid being fair game during times of war?

I doubt these would get honored all that often by most military commanders, but I wouldn't put it past certain corporations with enough clout to try to act as independent powers to protect their interests.

Are there any real world parallels aside from mercy organizations (Red Cross) that might apply? Companies that did business with both sides during WWI or WWII without being thoroughly sanctioned/nationalized? Like Fanta being Germany's soda via Coca Cola during WWII - though I kinda place this in the 'sanctioned restructuring' category, rather than a true neutral treatment.
 
Imperial
I'm picturing small task forces, 1-3 cruiser sized ships working their way deep behind enemy lines, and hitting any jump capable trader they catch within their sights. Some commanders probably give the crew a warning to abandon ship' before its destroyed, though others might, if they're close to the Zhodani border, order a prize crew to board and jump the ship to extra-Imperial space - though I think this is less likely.

Industrial bombardment (if possible - I doubt that many worlds that close to the border wouldn't have a decent planetary picket and or surface defenses) would be limited to spinal mount or HE, non-nuclear, or at least very low nuclear yield bombardment. I think anything more would likely have dire consequences for ever coming to a peace agreement, and reparations demanded of either side would be crippling to either local economy otherwise. In essence, these are 'civilized' and limited wars - they're about taking and holding territory and limiting the other side's ability to wage war without reducing populations of any but the lowest pop worlds.

The whole Letters of Marque thing would be -very- rare, if even allowed by the powers that be, but I'd say the farther back you go in the Marches history, probably the more likely some romantic sector admiral might be willing to issue them to wealthy and capable individuals. After the war, the letters would be revoked and the privateers called home.

Zhodani
Strictly military, no Letters of Marque (the Vargr fill that role anyways), strictly strike, hit everything as hard as you can, retreat as fast as possible. Any target of opportunity will be considered, whether independent trader, Imperial megacorp*, or extra-Imperial merchant. (for ex: Sorry for that Aslan clan trader that got caught at Villis - you just were in the wrong place and the wrong time.)

Darrian
Strictly military strikes, and mostly only against the Sword's Worlds. While a few Darrian might be wealthy enough to own ships capable of committing 'sanctioned piracy', I doubt there are enough of them to provide a pool of willing privateers, and the Darrians might be a bit more cautious, being surrounded by a lot of no-man's land systems, of giving anyone a taste of the pirate's life - they might decide to continue after the wars are over, and smaller states may be easier to prey upon the trade of than larger ones.

Industrial raids, at least against the Swords Worlds would be a priority - their entire capability to wage war is immediately reachable by the Darrian Navy and any hole in Swords Worlds defenses could lead to orbital bombardment of industrial sites. The same would be reversed

Swords Worlds
We all go a-Viking? In some ways I'd see the Swords Worlds as even less predictable/organized than the Vargr. At the rumblings of any war every merchant that isn't arm is quickly loaded with missile turrets, or mothballed until the cessation of hostilities. Every captain with a sense of honor and the desire to bloody the nose of the Imperium will call upon his crew to join in punitive raids against the Impies and the Darrians - at least until a Swords Worlds task force absorbs them into their force as an auxiliary. Some less honorable, or grudge holding Swordies might even raid rival Sword worlds while everyone else is looking the other way. 'Letters of Marque' would likely be issued by individual worlds as opposed to the Confederation allied forces and may include some vagueness about who its legal to attack, for how long, and the conditions under which safe haven may be granted.

The Interstellar Wars


Terrans
During the Second Interstellar war the first commerce raids commenced, with individual Terran war ships engaging and either destroying or capturing small Vilani merchants, crewing their captures with prize crews and sending them back to Earth to be repurposed and/or studied.

Though never officially sanctioned, the Free Traders Foundation filled the function of privateers during the early Interstallar Wars (2130's or 3rd Interstellar war onward), and often got off with little more than fines back in Terran space if they escaped Imperial capture or destruction. A very few remained engaged in acts of piracy during the times of peace between the wars, and while a few were later sanctioned black ops and intelligence ships and forgiven their peace-time activities, others were treated with extreme prejudice by the Terran Navy and either destroyed or captured. In no case, however, were Confederation citizens extradited to Vilani space for trial.

Later wars saw a 'maturing' of strategy as the required number of ships became available to actually carry out blockades, planetary seiges, and commerce raiding and disruption well behind enemy lines. Task forces would be comprised of 3-5 ships perhaps, within the contemporary 'destroyer to light cruiser' range - 1k-5k tonnage each. By this time also, Terran Naval intelligence had begun to track Vilani supply lines and make surgical strikes against general commerce, supply worlds or convoys that would disrupt trade and logistics for parsecs around the target. The use of nuclear weapons against Terran cities during the 3rd War led to Terran diplomatic attempts at nuclear arms control with the Vilani that fell upon deaf ears.

Although the stops were pulled out for use of nuclear weapons against Imperial ground targets, the Terrans kept this practice to a minimum as more Vilani Kimashargur worlds defected toward the Terran side, with the majority of nuclear strikes reserved for strictly military or military industrial production sites.

Imperial
Commerce raiding perse' was less a Vilani policy by the Interstellar Wars than an arrogance of total interdiction, misjudging how thoroughly porous their frontier had become. During times of border interdiction, Terran ships that were caught were ordered to surrender unconditionally, or simply destroyed. During wars where the Vilani were on the offensive, no distinction between military and civilian shipping was made. If they were barbarians, and they didn't take the fleet too far out of the way from its target, it was destroyed. The first five Interstellar Wars weren't even viewed as 'wars' by the Imperium, being too small to even register more than a subsector away from the front.

As free traders made a shambles of millenia old monopolies and trade controls, any Terran merchant came to be seen as guilty until proven innocent, stopped boarded and impounded until everything cleared with local Imperial authorities - or until said authorities had been properly paid off. Over time, arrangements were arrived at and local governments would often order their patrols to stand down or allow certain companies or individual ships to land unmolested.

When naval assets were rotated in, oft times such worlds would be 'reset' and either written off temporarily or a new regimen of bribery and/or 'understandings' would eventually be hammered out. Some of these worlds would remain friendly to Terrans even during the Interstellar Wars if Imperial Naval presence was busy elsewhere or even had bigger fish to fry locally. Some Terran ships would even become falsely registered under the local Bureaux and be recognized as Imperial ships, operating 'legally' inside Vilani space for years.



Thoughts, alterations, comments, addendums?[/QUOTE]

Sword Worlders despite their reverence for Vikings, are a very different culture. Most of their habits seem to come from the on-planet mindset rather then the intersteller mindset and they don't have a distinct culture of enterprising, or enough room to develop it being caught between the Imperium and the Zho. If they acted like vikings they would be spreading as eagerly as Aslan or Vargr. Maybe they did that in the past, they are not doing that "now". Tizonians are slightly different from most Sword Worlders, but I got the impression of Tizonians as genteel merchant princes running small family shipping lines rather then as salty semi-barbarian chieftains.

Be that as it may, being a privateer would probably be a respected job among Sword Worlders. I would picture local jarls and thanes getting together a privateer on the spur of the moment and even issuing their own letters of marque(Gungnirians are a Balkanized planet and so that would be more applicable). However most Sword Worlders are landsiders and couldn't do this without the permission of the local starport. This would restrict the ability to do this. Vargr of course are under the same restriction, but they consider blatant piracy respectable even in peacetime. I don't think that Swordies would be more unpredictable then Vargr as privateers simply because starfaring is not as inate to their culture. I picture Swordies IMTU more as infantrymen then as a naval power and they probably have some of the best line infantry in the marches(I do not count elites like the Imperial Marines as "line" infantry; I mean the basic PBI's of that respective state, and I think Swordies would be better then the Imperial Army and certainly better then Imperial planetary forces). On the other hand, the Sword Worlds have a lack of naval power that makes privateering attractive.

As for the Terran Confederation, I get the impression that Terrans have a rather cavilier attitude toward non-terran laws that would certainly be considered arrogant. Someone could be a respectable citizen in Terran space and a criminal in Vilani space quite easily. The Free Traders Foundation in fact seem to be exemplars of this.
IMTU the Free Traders during the ISW formed a collection of ministates roughly aligned with the Terran Confederation as the war progressed; comparable to cossacks in space. As the war came to a conclusion, they preserved their independence by migrating into uncharted space not controlled by the new Second Imperium.
 
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I've always pictured this as the equivalent of WWII convoy strikes by submarines...


Seriayne,

Given the technologies of Traveller, the historical convoy strike model is the best historical analogy for commerce raiding in the OTU across all eras and races. Please note, I said it was the best historical model and not a perfect historical model.

Historically, commerce raiding shifted from it's emphasis away from commerce seizure and towards commerce destruction over 150 years thanks to technological advances and those advances further shifted the commerce raiding model towards commerce destruction with each passing decade.

Just as form follows function in both nature and engineering, the technologies available to a raider shape and constrain how a raider can operate. The major problem with "classic" piracy in the OTU is the time and effort it takes a pirate to intercept, board, loot, and withdraw from their targets and commerce raiders who focus solely on the commerce seizure rather than commerce destruction face the same nearly insurmountable hurdles. That is why commerce destruction takes precedence. Because a raider will have far more opportunities to destroy and/or damage an opponents ships and cargoes than it will have to seize the same, it can make more of an impact for less effort and less risk.

Let me direct you to this link for an essay that answers your questions. I posted the material in several parts to the TML several years ago where some kind soul cleaned it all up and compressed it into a single document. (The disjointed nature of the document is due to my piss poor prose style and the fact that it was once several posts to a mailing list.)

Commerce raiding is a vast topic and it's application will regularly vary as combatants try new tricks and employ new defenses. Because of that, we can only speak about commerce raiding in terms of trends and tendencies. Technological constraints will give us the broad brush strokes, such as the increasing emphasis on destruction rather than seizure. An emphasis, however, will not mean that no seizures ever take place across Charted Space, rather than seizures will be relatively rare to other activities because of the constraints imposed by technology.

I hope this helps you somewhat.


Regards,
Bill
 
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And let's not forget commerce raiding would include more than just looking for merchant ships. Strikes against any form of "commerce" would be included.
Attacking:
Shipyards
Orbital warehouses
Resource operations (ie belt mining, surface mining, etc)
Area denial attacks
Starports

Basically anything that denies the necessary commercial goods from your enemy. Obviously destroying Shipyards and Resources would be high on any list. But burning crops on an Ag world, causing starvation on a Hi Pop world could also be a major target. Obviously I'd have to station ships at the Ag world to stop just this sort of thing. And mining the approaches to Gas Giants or Starports could cause major disruptions and tie up resources. Which is the goal of commerce raiding after all.
 
In the mid ISW it is likely that sources of jump fuel were a key target for the absence of this could stop a fleet.

Gas giants couldn't be eliminated but the Vilani fleet was likely not made on the assumption that bases would be destroyed, or bereft of supplies.
 
And mining the approaches to Gas Giants or Starports could cause major disruptions and tie up resources. Which is the goal of commerce raiding after all.


There aren't enough mines in the universe to deny access to a target the size of a planet. It would take in place fleets.
 
But the *possibility* of mines might make you more cautious.

Not really. Mines would be warmer than the background IR level and would stick out like torches. As an example, the newest air-air IR homing missiles don't even need to lock onto the engine heat. In outer space the temp difference is even more extreme.
 
There aren't enough mines in the universe to deny access to a target the size of a planet. It would take in place fleets.

10 D-tons of assorted bolts placed into 10 polar orbits and 10 inclined counterspin equatorial orbits should do the trick nicely of interdicting a world for half a century or so.

The threat at that point is literally thousands of pin pricks each doing damage like a stick of TNT because they moving at between 25,000kmh+ to 100,000kmh+ (size dependent) relative to a ship trying to land...

And a shoal of those will be at or near a much more visible IR source... lost in the glare. Won't prevent trans-orbital distance bombardment, but then again, pretty much nothing will.
 
I like Aramis's tactic, but it doesn't foster much hope of using the gas giant or planet's resources yourself if you had to, or even got into a position to capture the planet later. It interdicts the planet for -ALL- sides. Scorched earth/black war tactic.

I don't know about mining with inert 'bombs' in the historical wet navy sense - space is just too freaking big. But freefloating missiles left in orbit with enough brains to fire rockets (or grav drives) and suicide against nice juicy targets. Scifi is full of AI level 'smart bombs' - while that's going a little overboard for the standard Traveller verse, at TL 11 through 15, you can get a lot of processing power into a tiny one-shot package.

Could also 'mine' with false negatives. The system's own nav beacons, repeaters, etc. could probably be spoofed by an enemy missile set to home in when it gets (or doesn't get) a certain ident from any approaching ship.

Doesn't really make for a proper 'mine field', but yeah ... space is big. Matching vectors with a determined ship already at V will be tough - Tradeships, however, do have to slow down to make planetfall - a much easier target, much bigger window to intercept. A system that gets a few of these added to its reputation will likely be avoided in the future.
 
I like Aramis's tactic, but it doesn't foster much hope of using the gas giant or planet's resources yourself if you had to, or even got into a position to capture the planet later. It interdicts the planet for -ALL- sides. Scorched earth/black war tactic.


Seriayne,

Not exactly...

The tactic Wil wrote of is nifty, nasty, and - most importantly - not permanent. We're experimenting now with aerogels and other substances to "sweep" the increasingly littered low Earth orbits, so the 57th Century Imperium is going to have it's methods and materials too.

Of course, cleaning up those "spilled bolts" will take time and resources, both of which are in short supply during a war.

The bolts can be also used both defensively and offensively. Just as how mines were routinely dropped by aircraft or laid by submarines around an enemy's ports, a load of "bolts' delivered into orbit around an enemy's world will require sweeping up. And that's just another example of the many commerce raiding tactics I wrote about.

Littering the orbits of fuel sources to limit their use by an enemy is going to be a tactic used by both sides. We've already seen how a defender will not have the number ships to deny use of every gas giant or moon in a system to an invader, but a few hundred dTons of "bolts" can certainly make using those gas giants or moons very problematic for any invader. Just as decisions regarding maritime movements had to take into account mines which needed to be avoided or swept, the presence of orbital bolts is going to effect decisions regarding astrographic movements.

Of course, "bolt" laying and "bolt" sweeping, whether in war or peace, is dangerous, thankless, and best left to unimportant people. People like the players!


Regards,
Bill
 
10 D-tons of assorted bolts placed into 10 polar orbits and 10 inclined counterspin equatorial orbits should do the trick nicely of interdicting a world for half a century or so.

Actually, not at all. Ship hulls are designed to be proof against kinetic energy thousands of times greater than this. Per the rules based on interplanetary travel velocity & micro-meteors, a hull can withstand at LEAST 41,952,800,000 joules...
 
Actually, not at all. Ship hulls are designed to be proof against kinetic energy thousands of times greater than this. Per the rules based on interplanetary travel velocity & micro-meteors, a hull can withstand at LEAST 41,952,800,000 joules...


What is this based on? Force equation? If so, probably correct.
 
I like Aramis's tactic, but it doesn't foster much hope of using the gas giant or planet's resources yourself if you had to, or even got into a position to capture the planet later. It interdicts the planet for -ALL- sides. Scorched earth/black war tactic.

I don't know about mining with inert 'bombs' in the historical wet navy sense - space is just too freaking big. But freefloating missiles left in orbit with enough brains to fire rockets (or grav drives) and suicide against nice juicy targets. Scifi is full of AI level 'smart bombs' - while that's going a little overboard for the standard Traveller verse, at TL 11 through 15, you can get a lot of processing power into a tiny one-shot package.

Could also 'mine' with false negatives. The system's own nav beacons, repeaters, etc. could probably be spoofed by an enemy missile set to home in when it gets (or doesn't get) a certain ident from any approaching ship.

Doesn't really make for a proper 'mine field', but yeah ... space is big. Matching vectors with a determined ship already at V will be tough - Tradeships, however, do have to slow down to make planetfall - a much easier target, much bigger window to intercept. A system that gets a few of these added to its reputation will likely be avoided in the future.

How about mine-missiles that are dropped behind a ship in a stern chase and either left to drift or towed by a wire or similar device, until an enemy ship comes into range.
 
How about mine-missiles that are dropped behind a ship in a stern chase and either left to drift or towed by a wire or similar device, until an enemy ship comes into range.


Jatay,

I don't see how towed ordnance fits into a discussion about "mines", but with light-second ranged lasers in the mix?

No.


Regards,
Bill
 
Actually, not at all. Ship hulls are designed to be proof against kinetic energy thousands of times greater than this. Per the rules based on interplanetary travel velocity & micro-meteors, a hull can withstand at LEAST 41,952,800,000 joules...

Gee, 3954kph is orbital velocity of earth at 10 diameters. Effective collision velocity for a ship attempting to land will be 2x that given counterorbiting bolts. Gives us 7908kph, or 28.4E9m/s (which =(J/m)0.5 * 44.84 according to 3g3)... 403E15J. vs your 41.9E9J. 10,000,000. times more energy. Before we scale up for size of the bolt.

A 50g bolt will have 2.5E3 times more energy.

The energy is well more than high enough. multiple hundreds of terajoules for a 50g bolt; the polar ones will be about 250TJ, and the counterorbitals about 1000TJ....

can we say "BANG!!!!"???

Thing is, they will more than likely just hole the ship repeatedly, rather than kill it, but still, if they hit something dangerous (like holing fuel into crew space or venting a drive), that's all she wrote.
 
Gee, 3954kph is orbital velocity of earth at 10 diameters. Effective collision velocity for a ship attempting to land will be 2x that given counterorbiting bolts. Gives us 7908kph, or 28.4E9m/s (which =(J/m)0.5 * 44.84 according to 3g3)... 403E15J. vs your 41.9E9J. 10,000,000. times more energy. Before we scale up for size of the bolt.

A 50g bolt will have 2.5E3 times more energy.

The energy is well more than high enough. multiple hundreds of terajoules for a 50g bolt; the polar ones will be about 250TJ, and the counterorbitals about 1000TJ....

KE in Joules = 1/2 (M * (V * V))
M in kilograms =.05 (50g)
V in meters/sec = 2197 m/sec (7908 kph)

= 120,670 Joules
 
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KE in Joules = 1/2 (M * (V * V))
M in kilograms =.05 (50g)
V in meters/sec = 2197 m/sec (7908 kph)

= 120,670.225 Joules

Plugging this into equations from 3G3, it gives a DV of ~210* which converts to a pen of ~7 in MT terms

* this assumes a bolt diameter that gives about 20mm effective diameter for a given impact
from 3G3 chart that assumes steel and a 2:1 length/diameter ratio
 
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