Quick summary: nothing short of ships using the LBB2 Z-sized drives can turn a profit on cargo at Cr1K/Td/jump at higher than J-1 (and those will have difficulty filling their holds).
And that's because under LBB2.81 RAW, Drive-Z is 2.5x "too powerful" in terms of power density relative to everything else. Drive-Z will basically "move" 12,000 displacement tons using a drive that in terms of installation tonnage and construction cost ought to be only capable of "moving" 4800 displacement tons.
12,000 / 4800 = 2.5
In other words, Drive-Z is "cheating wildly" using the LBB2.81 RAW ... but "It's the RAW" ... and the
Most Holy RAW Must Never Be Questioned ...
blah blah blah ... you know the drill by now.
The fact that it's basically "impossible" to put 1 Drive-Z (let alone 3 of them!) into anything that might be usefully classified as an ACS (that can be taken "off road" on adventures) helped to shield this fact from
envious eyes.
Yes, it's broken -- good enough to keep a Type A or Type R going, but if you want to upgrade to J-2, you'll need to transition to speculative trading.
I think this was deliberate design.
Undoubtedly deliberate.
From a game design standpoint (risk vs reward) ... ticket sales are low risk/low reward. Therefore, ticket sales ought to be sufficient to "pay the bills" but not enough to generate enormous profits. Contrast that with speculative goods, which are high risk/high reward ... in which you are quite literally "gambling with your own credits" as a way to increase your profits. There are also downsides, in which traders can make losses on speculative goods, rather than profits, so
theoretically (broadly speaking) the two paradigms are somewhat "balanced" against each other.
Ticket sales pay for overhead operating expenses.
Speculative goods arbitrage "pays for the whole operation" in ways that make business expansion possible. It's only through speculative goods arbitrage that you can HOPE to make sufficient profits to "roll over" into buying a new starship or "retire" into a life of (adequate) luxury.
That assumes you're getting hired enough to cover your mortgage.
Assuming you're even operating on a mortgage basis.
If your starship is subsidized, long term charters (in excess of 2 weeks/1 jump) are entirely possible. If there's a 3rd party that wants to put together a "shuttle circulator" business, but doesn't want to operate the craft themselves in order to do it (we would call that "outsourcing" today), then all they need is an operator who is willing to work on a long(er) term charter contract basis.
I would assume that any ship that can single-jump the same route would outsell me.
Maybe ... maybe not.
Let's take 2 scenarios and pit them against each other.
I've done this before, but it bears repeating.
Let's say that you've got 2 starships (a J1+1 and a J2) competing on a shuttle service between 2 worlds that are 2 parsecs apart.
- The J1+1 starship operator enters a long term (renewed annually) interstellar charter with a 3rd party company for services on this route.
- The J2 starship operator wants to be an independent free trader without any strings attached or obligations to 3rd parties.
What happens in terms of ticket sales?
Let's start with the J2 starship operator, because that's going to be the more familiar case.
The J2 starship departs every 2 weeks (1 week in jump, 1 week of business on each world) and they just keep jumping back and forth between these 2 worlds.
Let's stipulate that 1 of the 2 worlds is the "home port" for the starship operator, so they always want to perform annual overhaul maintenance at their home port every year. This then means that the starship will be departing (outbound) 24 times per year and will effectively have 24x 1 week of business operations per year while the starship is berthed at the starport and running their business operations. Everything operates on a "just in time" basis of negotiation for passengers and freight cargo tickets when the starship arrives at each world ... so call it 24 weeks worth of business dealings per year, with a 1 month vacation for the crew every year during which annual overhaul maintenance occurs at the "home port" for the starship.
So far, so ordinary, right?
Now compare that business model with a J1+1 starship operator that has a long term (renewed annually) charter contract with a 3rd party business that has local offices on both worlds in this example.
The J1 starship departs every 3 weeks (2 weeks in jump, 1 week of business on each world) and they just keep jumping back and forth between these 2 worlds (just like the previous example).
Let's also stipulate (again) that 1 of the 2 worlds is the "home port" of the starship operator, so they always want to perform annual overhaul maintenance at their home port every year. This then means that the starship will be departing (outbound) 16 times per year ... but the shipping manifests are not being filled by the starship operator, they're instead being filled by the 3rd party with the long term charter contract.
What this means (in practice) is that the 3rd party company is "getting roll" for passengers and cargoes "once per week" on EACH WORLD that they have offices on (which would be both worlds). This means that the 3rd party is conducting "business" to secure passenger and freight cargo ticket sales for 16*3=48 weeks per year PER WORLD in this example.
In other words, the 3rd party company is able to conduct "96 weeks worth of business" securing ticket sales to customers per year for the J1+1 starship, compared to the "24 weeks of business" that the J2 independent free trader can do every year.
In other words, the 3rd party company with local offices on the 2 worlds can do
4x the amount of business annually than the independent can. That kind of partnership can EASILY increase the "volume of trade" demand for the J1+1 starship operator, making it practical for them to run a larger starship with a higher revenue tonnage fraction/absolute capacity compared to their J2 competitor.
Everything operates on a "preset schedule" basis, with the J1+1 starship arriving for unloading and loading on a relatively routine (predictable) timetable. The 3rd party company office
on each world therefore has basically
6 weeks to "scoop up" all of the ticket sales for the next departure by the starship. Compare that to having only
1 week on each world to gather up ticket sales in the case of the J2 independent.
The J1+1 starship operator also gets a 1 month vacation for the crew every year during which annual overhaul maintenance occurs at the "home port" for the starship.
Now, if you were to compare those two business models against each other ... which one would you expect to be more "successful" in the long run?
- The J2 independent
- The J1+1 charter operator partnered with a 3rd party
I would be putting my investment credits on the charter operator and the 3rd party.
Why?
While the J1+1 starship may not be "as fast" to transit 2 parsecs, the 3rd party "dispatcher" company is able to more efficiently aggregate more business per year, leading to a higher demand for ticket sales and services. Therefore, it's not the "speed" of the starship that matters (4 week round trip vs 6 week round trip), it's the volume of demand for services that sustains the operation. It's a classic case of "we make it up in volume" which in turn "keeps the trains running on time" in a dependable way that supply chains then come to rely upon.
And that's not even including the fact that the J2 independent operator would be earning 24 ticket cycles per year, while the J1+1 charter contract operator would be earning 32 ticket cycles per year (2 tickets per departure).
The J2 independent is cheaper ... but the J1+1 charter operator can manage higher volumes of demand, sufficient to need either a bigger starship or "more than 1 starship" in order to meet the demands for transport.
Guess which operation will tend to generate higher profits in the long run?
If it's purely a matter of ticket sales, my investment credits would be going to the operation that is conducting more business per year ... which would then be the 3rd party "shore support" and annually renewed charter contract operation, simply because they are able to sell tickets "continuously, year round" on each world they have an office on. By contrast, the independent operator can only sell tickets on each world "only 1 week out of every 4 weeks" that they are on world and able to conduct business there ... meaning that the 3 weeks out of every 4 that the starship is NOT there on each world are "lost opportunities" for additional business.
Point being that "how you structure" your operations can make a huge difference in the volume of trade (and therefore, ticket demand) you can expect as a starship operator.
Note that the megacorporations are basically doing an "incestuous 3rd party" version of the above scenario as a matter of standard practice, basically EVERYWHERE. Go figure how much of an advantage that gives them over the "small time independent Free Trader" who is (desperately) fighting for table scraps on a "catch as catch can" basis in the spot market of every world they go to.
There's a reason why 90% of Free Traders go bankrupt, while the megacorporations stick around ...
