Why the long night?

[DangerousThing]

Hi,

I'm trying to figure out why, when the 2nd Imperium and the Rule of Man fell there was such a long "Long Night".

This is also about trade and manufacturing.

I'm making one assumption here:

1. Most relatively high population planets are self-sufficient, for the most part.

I can understand that any low population world that needs imports to survive would have problems, but any high population system with a reasonable tech level should have survived without much problems.

I don't know what the TL/populations of planets were right before the Long Night.

I tend to agree in the main with John Sneed's article in Freelance Traveller #11, in which he mainly talks about the background tech in Traveller. The article is "Traveller for the 21st Century" and it talks about increasing computer and genetics technology while still keeping Traveller pretty much the same game.

John has limited nanotech at TL-12, which is merely another, more efficient, way of manufacturing. The nanotech "vats" take programming and raw materials in, and output finished products. It should be possible to sell these "vats" to lower tech worlds (such as Regina at TL-10). The main advantage of using this sort of nanotech is that it is very easy to change a factory from producing steel beams to producing food.

Even without nanotech, lower-tech robots could still do this sort of job. Things would take a little longer to change their purpose, but it could still be done relatively easy.

Therefore, most systems with enough population to need large-scale manufacturing should have it.

As for new star ships, it might take a bit longer for them to be built, but it should be possible to do this with either a robot factory or a nanotech factory, or even with plain basic humans. It wouldn't be as quick to build them on the ground as it would in space, but it could be done. And once you have the ships, you can build the 0-g dry docks to build more. And yes, if the TL is high enough and there are some ships around to hunt for the right rare materials. Lanthanum, which is considered a rare-earth element, is actually much cheaper than gold (also used for industrial uses); unless this is more common on Earth than other systems, it should be found in enough quantity to build more jump drives.

So within 10-20 years there should be enough ship-building around that exploration from pretty much everywhere should begin again.

So my question again is, why the long night?

I ask this because IMTU I also had a long night. This was nothing like the OTU, but there was a large republic (around 2,000 systems) that fell hard due to fighting between the haves and the have-nots (basically). IMTU, one of the groups that lost spread a computer bacteria - a germ that had a long incubation period but that ate modern electronics. I figure this was enough to wreck the local tech levels and ships.

So I have an answer that works for MTU, but not for the OTU.

Any thoughts? Am I missing something obvious?

 

[Hyphen]

Cool! A request for an in-game explanation of a meta-game problem (I think these posts are some of my favourites).

I hope Hans and Bill will chime in here (they may even have solved this one years ago, knowing them!)

My simplistic guess has always been that Marc & Loren simply filed the serial numbers off the Roman Empire, and multiplied everything by 10... <g, d & r!>



(The other amusing thing is that while there is an official Library Data entry for Twilight, there isn't one specifically for the Long Night!) o:

 

[CosmicGamer]

I have a question re:

I'm making one assumption here:

1. Most relatively high population planets are self-sufficient, for the most part.

Do you only want responses that adhere to this assumption or are you open to discussion that challenges it?

 

[Strummist]

Is nanotech strictly canon? There are serious doubts in the real world about whether it is a genuinely viable technology - that is "true nano" as described in SF. however, 3D printing seems to fill the same niche.

 

[Andrew Boulton]

I'm making one assumption here:

1. Most relatively high population planets are self-sufficient, for the most part.

There's your problem - many aren't.

Check the Trade Classifications:

Non-Ag - need to import food
Non-Ind - need to import manufactured goods

Some may find tech workarounds, but not all, and without trade they're in big trouble.

 

[far-trader]

There's your problem - many aren't.

Check the Trade Classifications:

Non-Ag - need to import food
Non-Ind - need to import manufactured goods

Some may find tech workarounds, but not all, and without trade they're in big trouble.

Well, per CT and my long held interpretation, not really.

CT Book 3:

"Non-agricultural worlds must import much of their foodstuffs from off planet."

...which jives with your interpretation, but there's more:

"While such worlds may produce synthetic foodstuffs for local consumption, it probably imports quality foods as luxury items."

...which jives with my interpretation.

Of course there's literally Mdtons of wiggle room what with the "much" and "may" and "probably"

NI is similar.

Perhaps the emphasis changed in later rules?

What I'm saying is not all NA or NI worlds are going to be doomed just because trade stops. Many will be self sufficient enough to survive. Oh sure the upper classes may suffer ("Spam again Jeeves? And why isn't the Tri-D working?") but they'll survive, and the bulk of the population probably won't notice a difference...

...on the other hand a double-jeopardy world of NA and NI probably would be in some trouble. More needs to be looked at than just the trade codes.

Yeah, the Long Night has bothered me a bit too. Without some other factors involved it is a bit suspender snapping to believe.

 

[DangerousThing]

I have a question re: Do you only want responses that adhere to this assumption or are you open to discussion that challenges it?

Please challenge away. I find that I get more ideas when I'm challenged than when people just agree with me.

And on another board, the battles between the Bird and the Bear are legendary. (My alias on many boards is the name of my parrot: NerdBird.)

 

[Carlobrand]

I think we need to clarify the difference between "doomed" and "impaired". Humans are pretty ingenious about surviving when the chips are down, but that's not the same as maintaining an interstellar economy. Where there is a lot of interdependence, even nominally independent economies can sometimes be surprised by the degree to which they were dependent on imports. Fine, you've got industry, but World X had cheap sources of platinum that made their widgety-goos less expensive even after import costs, so your world fell out of the widgety-goo industry and now finds itself in an awkward position.

Retooling from a disruption takes time, and even after that occurs, there's a key question: is there actually any money to be made in building multi-million dollar ships to go see if the MARKET that was out there 50 or a hundred or 2 hundred years ago is still out there? The answer to THAT question could delay a recovery more than anything else, at least until either the local government got up enough resources and gumption to put taxpayer money to answering it or the commercial interests had enough capital to spare and saw potential profit in answering it.

We landed men on the moon more than 40 years ago, we know there are resources to be had in space, but we haven't in all the intervening decades been able to get over the very big hump of the initial investment needed to make space travel not only practical but economically worthwhile.

 

[BillDowns]

I don't see an issue with a long Long Night. First off, the highest TL was 11. Second off, it's really a socio-political concept. Doesn't matter that world X had some technology remaining, but that World X did not consider itself part of a greater Imperium until the Sylean Federation reformed it around Core sector, and extended its borders back out everywhere.

 

[onthe1]

I always assumed he took the idea from Poul Anderson's books, one of which is titled, The Long Night, although I never read more than one of those books and even that was a while back. I'm sure someone here can verify or correct me on this.

 

[Dragoner]

I always assumed he took the idea from Poul Anderson's books, one of which is titled, The Long Night, although I never read more than one of those books and even that was a while back. I'm sure someone here can verify or correct me on this.

This is where I thought it was from as well.

 

[far-trader]

Retooling from a disruption takes time...

What disruption though? It was as noted political/socioeconomic. Something about an interstellar currency collapse iirc. And that killed ALL interstellar trade. Sure it did.

...and even after that occurs, there's a key question: is there actually any money to be made in building multi-million dollar ships to go see if the MARKET that was out there 50 or a hundred or 2 hundred years ago is still out there?

But why? Why any trade stop at all? You just trade in what has value between the partners. You already have fleets of many (many to the X according to some) trade ships. They don't stop working overnight. Heck they don't stop working for decades or longer. You don't have to wonder "Golly, does Arglebargle still make the finest Gargleblaster in the subsector?" You've still been trading with them if they were in your trade sphere before. No need to mount a big expedition to see if they are still there 2 parsecs distant.

IF there was any profitable interstellar trade between worlds it isn't going to just stop.

We landed men on the moon more than 40 years ago, we know there are resources to be had in space, but we haven't in all the intervening decades been able to get over the very big hump of the initial investment needed to make space travel not only practical but economically worthwhile.

Non issue. In the Traveller case the costs are trivial, the research is done and the technology mature. Now IF you want to say that Imperia Prime is the ONLY place in all of charted space that can build or maintain Starships and they have a built in anti-tamper and planned obsolescence to maintain a monopoly on ships... THEN maybe all interstellar trade could collapse in short order and be a long time coming back.

I don't see an issue with a long Long Night. First off, the highest TL was 11. Second off, it's really a socio-political concept. Doesn't matter that world X had some technology remaining, but that World X did not consider itself part of a greater Imperium until the Sylean Federation reformed it around Core sector, and extended its borders back out everywhere.

So it was a Long Night in name only? And only as far as a Big Imperium concept is concerned? Interstellar trade never really stopped? It is all a big fiction?

TL 11 is plenty high enough. Any world with TL9 can build starships, regardless of local Starport class.

 

[DangerousThing]

Is nanotech strictly canon? There are serious doubts in the real world about whether it is a genuinely viable technology - that is "true nano" as described in SF. however, 3D printing seems to fill the same niche.

I think it depends with whom you talk. At any rate, it would do most of its work in the background. It would be part of the technology behind the scenes that just makes things work.

However, most of what I'm thinking about could be done by robot factories. Nanotechnology just makes things easier. I could see large nano-tech factories that could be changed from processing steel to creating synthetic food in just a few hours.

The type of nanotech I'm thinking about is the definitions as put by John Sneed in his article.

Low Nanotech (TL-10) is a weak form of nanotech. The nanomachines cannot survive in the real world; they get eaten by bacteria, they decay, they are light sensitive, etc. They are used inside a "vat" which uses nano-assemblers to create the nano-machines that actually do the work. I'm thinking that the "vat" might look sort of like a thin box standing on edge. The raw materials go in the back and might have to be preprocessed into a power or liquid. Or maybe not, I'm not sure. The nano-assemblers could be programmed to do different tasks.

Household versions of these could act like a 3d printer or even an auto-chef.

A shipboard one could create spare parts or even cargo, given the right raw materials.

Medium Nanotech (TL-16) has stronger nano-machines that can last longer in the outside world, but there is still a vat of assemblers. However, the nano-machines could be released as sort of a gas to do a job. Still no loose nano-assemblers, so no gray-goo problem.

High Nanotech is at a much higher TL and has all the bells and whistles that one could expect, in which case people might just be clouds of nano-tech. At this point, I'm not sure that I could suspend my disbelief enough to play a game of Traveller. It's not that I don't believe in the technology, bur rather I don't believe that the people would be comprehensible to me.

 

[mike wightman]

The long night was brought about by the collapse of the interstellar banking system - no banks means no mortgages for ships and no investment in start up colonies.

Planetary governments suddenly having to find huge amounts of real wealth when the electronic shuffling of numbers suddenly can't support itself - sound familiar?

If you are a self sufficient world - or at least close to it - you stop exchanging your goods for worthless monetary promises from other worlds, you want cold hard goods in exchange - interstellar barter at its best

 

[mike wightman]

I don't see an issue with a long Long Night. First off, the highest TL was 11. Second off, it's really a socio-political concept. Doesn't matter that world X had some technology remaining, but that World X did not consider itself part of a greater Imperium until the Sylean Federation reformed it around Core sector, and extended its borders back out everywhere.

Earth had achieved meson weaponry and jump 3 drives by the end of the Interstellar Wars - that makes Earth TL12 well before the Long Night falls.

And I agree that the Long Night was probably not the sort of collapse that 3rd Imperium propaganda would later retcon it to be.

Systems became more insular, and looked to trading with their immediate neighbour worlds only for hard currencies. It was the concept of being a part of a greater Imperium that really collapsed, worlds just ceased paying taxes to an Empire that had long ago ceased to function in any useful form to enable the welfare of member worlds, and with the collapse of the Imperial credit the empire fell.

 

[BillDowns]

I always assumed he took the idea from Poul Anderson's books, one of which is titled, The Long Night, although I never read more than one of those books and even that was a while back. I'm sure someone here can verify or correct me on this.

I actually thought it was taken from history & the Foundation, myself.

 

[BillDowns]

Earth had achieved meson weaponry and jump 3 drives by the end of the Interstellar Wars - that makes Earth TL12 well before the Long Night falls.

Where did you get that? Not being difficult - just curious.

I was going off the short article in the front of my 1980 print of Library Data A-L and reading between the lines, too. What I read said Jump-2 was what allowed Sol to defeat the Vilani who only had Jump-1.

 

[mike wightman]

Where did you get that? Not being difficult - just curious.

I was going off the short article in the front of my 1980 print of Library Data A-L and reading between the lines, too. What I read said Jump-2 was what allowed Sol to defeat the Vilani who only had Jump-1.

Library Data N-Z explicitly mentions the Terrrans achieving jump 3.

The Vilani had had jump 2 for thousands of years. In the early Interstellar Wars period the TL11 Vilani enjoyed a tremendous technological advantage over the TL9 Terrans, trouble is the Terrans weren't bound by the same scientific and engineering conservatism that existed in The First Imperium.

Through reverse engineering and espionage the Terrans rapidly closed the TL gap, and then were probably able to play join the dots to make the leap to TL12 - something the Vilani didn't do due to social manipulation.

 

[BlackBat242]

I always assumed he took the idea from Poul Anderson's books, one of which is titled, The Long Night, although I never read more than one of those books and even that was a while back. I'm sure someone here can verify or correct me on this.

I actually thought it was taken from history & the Foundation, myself.

Poul Anderson wrote a series of short stories and novels dealing with the concept... most in the form of Dominic Flandry (who first appears in print in 1951) trying to hold the Terran Empire together long enough to allow preparations to be made to lessen the depth and duration of the coming econo-political collapse.

Many other sci-fi writers in the 1950s and 60s included similar themes... from Asimov's Foundation series [1942+] on through H. Beam Piper (Star Viking [1962] has a collapsed "Old Federation" and a thriving collection of feudal worlds called "The Sword Worlds" looting the OF's carcass), and so on.

 

[rancke]

But why? Why any trade stop at all? You just trade in what has value between the partners. You already have fleets of many (many to the X according to some) trade ships. They don't stop working overnight. Heck they don't stop working for decades or longer.

The canonical story is that there was a breakdown in authority and a concomitant upsurge in piracy, making long-distance trade uneconomical. Trade with close trading partners continued. There is also talk of several "false dawns" when one pocket empire or another seemed to be growing big, only to shrink back again. Finally, the point is made that the early Imperium had an interest in portraying the Long Night as darker than it actually was. The story that goes around in the Classic Era is "what everybody knows", not necessarily the truth.


Hans