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Escape Velocity Problem Returns in T5!

Crunching the numbers on a ship design revealed that I could generate enough profit on 1 trade to completely pay off the mortgage on a 200-300 dTon J6 ship. With the reduced turn-around time on my 'deals', I could afford to increase the number of J6 speculative cargoes from 2 per year to 4 per year ... and after the first trip, the ship had no mortgage ... fuel, crew and annual maintenance, that's it. So I only needed to reserve the subsidized ship for 4 trips per year, the rest of the year the crew could carry cargo at a greatly reduced operating cost and keep whatever money they earn. I earned more just buying the ship and using it as needed rather than waiting to ship my goods and get my pay via J2 commercial shipping.

How did you account for the existence of business rivals who could outbid you by the difference in transportation costs and leave you with no goods to buy? Or business rivals who would likewise build J6 ships and underbid you at the market, being satisfied with a slightly less fabulous profit?


Hans
 
An actual look at the published X-boat routes shows that they don't even routinely maintain J4.

Looking at just the imperial side of the Solomani Rim sector:
A: 3, 4 (7/2)
B: 2, 2, 3, 4 (11/4)
C: 2, 3, 4 (9/3)
D: 3, 2, 3, 3 (11/4)
E: 1, 2, 1, 2, 4, 4, 3, 3 (20/8)
F: 2, 3, 2, 2, 3 (12/5)
G: 3, 1, 2, 2, 3, 3 (14/6)
H: 4, 4, 3, 2 (13/4)
I: 4, 3, 3, 2 (12/4)
J: 3, 3, 2, 3, 3, 4, 4, 3, 3, 3, 3 (34/11)
K: 3, 2, 2, 2, 1, 4 (14/6)
L: 3, 4, 2, 2, 4 (15/5)
162 Pc over 62 jumps is 2.6Pc per average X-boat link.
If we take the three where it may be the middle world is not in the route out of the jump count, it goes up to 2.7Pc.
 
How did you account for the existence of business rivals who could outbid you by the difference in transportation costs and leave you with no goods to buy? Or business rivals who would likewise build J6 ships and underbid you at the market, being satisfied with a slightly less fabulous profit?

Hans
Traveller is a game, remember?
I used the rules for speculative trade, as written, and found a pair of worlds with something like a -2 modifier to purchase price (plus my broker skill) and a +2 to the sale price (plus the skill of the broker that I did business with). Then I rolled for speculative cargos and purchased those that I could both afford and expect to generate a profit on. IIRC, computers, electronics and radioactives fared well as trade goods between those two worlds ... but buying them tied up most of my cash and forced me to pass on any good deals that occurred for the next 12 weeks or so. So reducing the total trip time from 12 weeks to 3 weeks allowed me to get back to trading sooner ... which increased my total annual revenue.
 
Traveller is a game, remember?

Yes! Sing it, brother!

I used the rules for speculative trade, as written, and found a pair of worlds with something like a -2 modifier to purchase price (plus my broker skill) and a +2 to the sale price (plus the skill of the broker that I did business with). Then I rolled for speculative cargos and purchased those that I could both afford and expect to generate a profit on. IIRC, computers, electronics and radioactives fared well as trade goods between those two worlds ... but buying them tied up most of my cash and forced me to pass on any good deals that occurred for the next 12 weeks or so. So reducing the total trip time from 12 weeks to 3 weeks allowed me to get back to trading sooner ... which increased my total annual revenue.

I love CT trading.

I love figuring out wonky UWPs, too--bringing reason to rhyme.

Some of my most fun and interesting science fiction backgrounds, descriptions, and situations have sprung from UWPs that didn't make sense on first inspection.



Let's see...

Pysadi is TL 4. That's equivalent to early WWII. It's a small world with lower gravity. And, it's got a tainted atmosphere.

How to make all these things work...

I find this kind of "problem" fun. It gets my creative juices flowing.

So...the people wear these huge gas-masks that look like a Fash Gordon version of a WWI gas mask. That's where their tech takes them. The people decorate them--they're fashionable, since they must be worn outside.

The world must be a colony--and from the Traveller Adventure, I know a little about the Religious government. Part of the religion must be a bit of a rejection of technology--which is ironic, because they need it to survive.

The buildings are all sealed environments with big, thick, replaceable filters in the windows. Temperature on Pysadi is cold to cool around the starport and the largest city. Coats are normal, with big pockets to carry spare filters for the masks.

The world is dependent to off-worlders for the g-plating. That's not manufactured locally. Here's a speculative trade item--maybe. Parts--possibly techs--to fix things. No robots, because of the rejection of technology (they're a complicated people).

G-plate installation and maintenance is expensive, but there's a socialistic subsidized system in place by the government. When somebody needs g-plate attention, they petition their local church, which puts the request through channels, and if approved, the state (church) pays for it out of local taxes.

I picture lots of heavy robes, hoods, capes, and coats, thick boots, when describing the Pysadians. I don't know why, but I'm thinking faded greens and browns--very early WWII Russian looking, I think--which a sci-fi twist. Functional wardrobe. Not flashy at all, except when it comes to symbols or clothing of the church. Although still reserved, it's more flashy than normal Pysadian clothing.

Starport is rented and operated by a MegaCorp, though not Tukera. They pay a lease to the Pysadian government to operate it.

And...I could go on and on.

All this just be looking at the UWP and getting creative.




I would often do that--look at a UWP and then just start making up stuff, based on the world's code, brainstorming, free-flow ideas, until a "feel" of the place was evident to me.

This is one of the reasons I love CT specifically and Traveller in general--it brings out a real creative side of me.

I enjoy the stream-of-consciousness creating.
 
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Traveller is a game, remember?
I remember. I wondered if you and Guy did. It's a game that, among other things, doesn't factor in the existence of business rivals. The Traveller setting, OTOH, is supposed to be every bit as complex as Real Life, which IMO includes the existence of business rivals. In reality, if a business opportunity seems too good to be true, it usually is. Nothing wrong with taking advantage of something like that in a game, if your referee will let you, but I don't think it is valid for setting-building.

I used the rules for speculative trade, as written, and found a pair of worlds with something like a -2 modifier to purchase price (plus my broker skill) and a +2 to the sale price (plus the skill of the broker that I did business with). Then I rolled for speculative cargos and purchased those that I could both afford and expect to generate a profit on. IIRC, computers, electronics and radioactives fared well as trade goods between those two worlds ... but buying them tied up most of my cash and forced me to pass on any good deals that occurred for the next 12 weeks or so. So reducing the total trip time from 12 weeks to 3 weeks allowed me to get back to trading sooner ... which increased my total annual revenue.
And great fun was had by all. Good for you and good for your referee that he let you. In my early days as a referee I probably wouldn't have let you, arguing that such an opportunity would have been spotted and exploited long ago, and I would have been wrong to ruin your fun. Nowadays I'd most likely have let you do it once and then started tapering off the profit margin as NPCs jumped on your bandwaggon.

What I wouldn't have done and still won't do is to deduce the existence of a major jump-6 traffic between those two worlds.


Hans
 
Some of my most fun and interesting science fiction backgrounds, descriptions, and situations have sprung from UWPs that didn't make sense on first inspection.
I likewise love coming up with explanations that make sense of what didn't make sense on first inspection.

What I don't enjoy so much is spending lots and lots of time trying to come up with an explanation and failing, and then being told that there must be one and that even though whoever is telling me can't provide one himself, he's sure it must be possible and I'm a terrible person with a despicable deficiency in imagination who is trying to ruin everybody else's fun for suggesting otherwise.

People like that do tend to provoke me into incivility and while I acknowledge that I ought not to let me be provoked, I can't really manage to believe that the guilt is entirely on my side.


Hans
 
What I wouldn't have done and still won't do is to deduce the existence of a major jump-6 traffic between those two worlds.

Hans
Major traffic, neither would I (generally speaking).
Having crunched the numbers at least once, I would be far more willing to entertain the possibility that a single J6 trader with a 20 ton cargo capacity and a pair of High Passage staterooms may make regular trips between any two worlds 6 parsecs apart that have beneficial trade classifications (like an industrial world and an agricultural world).

On the other hand, an argument could be made that a pair of trade codes like industrial and agricultural could reflect the sort of comparative advantages that drive large scale trade patterns ... the sort of thing that might attract a Megacoporation super freighter to transport the regular shipments of bulk cargo that would be suggested by that sort of comparative advantage and fall beyond the scope of the small tramp freighter speculative trade rules.

Given the numbers in the starship creation rules, J6 would still be quite a stretch (further than I am comfortable with), but J3 or J4 seems plausible. Why are the rules on per-jump pricing sacred, but the rules on trade code cost modifiers for goods so quickly dismissed? I see both rules as reflecting the majority of cases for "adventure class ships", while not eliminating the possibility that other arrangements can co-exist.
 
On the other hand, an argument could be made that a pair of trade codes like industrial and agricultural could reflect the sort of comparative advantages that drive large scale trade patterns ... the sort of thing that might attract a Megacoporation super freighter to transport the regular shipments of bulk cargo that would be suggested by that sort of comparative advantage and fall beyond the scope of the small tramp freighter speculative trade rules.
I have no doubt whatsoever that such a combination would generate trade. I just think that unless the goods are time-sensitive or the astrography precludes J2 and J3, the ships involved would be J2 or J3 rather than J4.

Given the numbers in the starship creation rules, J6 would still be quite a stretch (further than I am comfortable with), but J3 or J4 seems plausible. Why are the rules on per-jump pricing sacred, but the rules on trade code cost modifiers for goods so quickly dismissed?
The rules of per-jump pricing is "sacred" because I don't think there's a snowball's chance in a very hot place that Marc Miller will ever change the ship construction rules significantly. And I believe that human nature is such that people will usually prefer a larger profit to a smaller one. The business deal that can keep a J4 ship in the black will be able to keep a J2 ship in the black and provide a hefty profit on top of that (unless the above-mentioned conditions apply).

I'm not dismissing the rules on trade code modifiers for goods for showing which way the trade wind is blowing, figuratively speaking. But I do believe that if there's a pair of world that allow humongous profits to be made, normal business competition will pare those profits down and down very quickly.


Hans
 
...and then being told that there must be one and that even though whoever is telling me can't provide one himself, he's sure it must be possible and I'm a terrible person with a despicable deficiency in imagination who is trying to ruin everybody else's fun for suggesting otherwise.

:eek: Naw, Hans. I'm sure you are a fine human being. I think you've just got a different play style, is all.

Hell, it's a game. We're meant to enjoy it.

Nobody is "right" and nobody is "wrong".

It's just differing opinions, that's all.
 
I have no doubt whatsoever that such a combination would generate trade. I just think that unless the goods are time-sensitive or the astrography precludes J2 and J3, the ships involved would be J2 or J3 rather than J4.
I can agree with that. Especially since Aramis pointed out that the X-Boat routes are actually closer to J3 than J4 in practice.

In land development (my field of employment), I see deals all the time that come with strings attached ... "Sure we can provide water to your site, you just need to extend the water main 2500 feet and dedicate it to the utility so we can serve you and all of the other properties along the way."

I wonder if Megacorporations might be subject to "strings attached" for some of their deals ... you get lots of lucrative J2 and J3 links (with mail contracts and guaranteed financing) but you must provide regular service (at a loss) to a few J4 links. Overall, the contract is profitable even if a few links are not.

Now that will not change the economic landscape that fleets of J4 traders trying to operate on that same link will quickly land in bankruptcy court. It just allows a few ships to operate at a loss in a line that is servicing an entire subsector capital to sector capital link.

Of course this still leans a little closer to IMTU than OTU. Personally, I think that it is a more logical concept than the x-boat fleet concept.

The rules of per-jump pricing is "sacred" because I don't think there's a snowball's chance in a very hot place that Marc Miller will ever change the ship construction rules significantly.
I can't argue with that, except to point out the obvious that the starship construction rules actually suggest per-parsec freight rates should be the norm rather than per-jump freight rates.

I'm not dismissing the rules on trade code modifiers for goods for showing which way the trade wind is blowing, figuratively speaking. But I do believe that if there's a pair of world that allow humongous profits to be made, normal business competition will pare those profits down and down very quickly.
"Humongous" becomes the operative word. The speculation rules allow for profit margins over 400% as a possibility, but those are statistically rare and not sustainable (anyone who rolls "2" for purchase price and "12" for sale price every time is cheating). So there I agree completely.

However, a simple -1 purchase price modifier and a +1 sale price modifier, both due to an innate economic advantage on the world, will generate an additional 10% profit margin. Coupling that with a 10% market fluxuation (which seems both reasonable and sustainable) will yield a 20% price difference between two worlds. If the goods cost MCr 1 per dTon (like some of the trade goods), then that 20% is a Cr 200,000 per ton profit margin. Is that not reasonable for something like the Far Future equivalent of importing electronics from SE Asia to North America or Europe? Might there be SOME* demand for the Far Future equivalent to Air Freight rather than PanaMax Container ships for some* items?

* [I emphasize 'some' because I agree that most cargo will travel by the cheapest means available. I do not advocate a fleet of J4 superfreighters based on an occasional 10 dTon shipment of multi-million credit cargo.]
 
Actually, it's more than 400%... an adjusted 2 is 40%, and an adjusted 15 is 400%. That's a potential for 1000%.

And, using book 2...

Wood has an Ag purchase mod of -6; this means that any roll of 8 or less is adjusted to a 2, or 26/36, with a peak purchase roll of 6 (90%)...
An Ag !Ri to Ri !Ag lot of wood is purchased at DM-6 and sold at DM+2 or more (due to brokers.) Without brokers, average purchase price is 47% base, and average sale is 128%. Broker +1 at sale raises to 150% for a 5% cost of sale (1.5-.08=1.42, still a net improvement); +2 is 177% sale for 10% (1.77 - .18= 1.59; still an improvement); +3 is 210% for 15% (2.10 -.32 is 1.78; again, still an improvement), and +4 is 246% sale for 20% (2.46 - .5 = 1.96; again, still an improvement). But, with a base price of Cr1000, the typical shipping is thus Cr470/ton purchase, Cr 1280/ton sale, a net loss at base cost, but with a broker 2 available at sale, a profit even as commercial shipped freight.

Now, radioactives, from an NI to an In, has a purchase -3 and sale +6...
70% average purchas and 246% average sale, and a base price of Cr1,000,000...
add a broker +3 at the sale end, and you cannot lose money if you manage to deliver. Even if you can't carry the lot yourself, shipping it is worth the money and the price of sending a factor with it round trip! (A broker +4 pushes the average sale up to 374%, and worst possible rolls produces purchase 130% and sell at 170%, for a Cr400,000/ton return. 2 Tons is a monthly payment on a Type R.)
One good load of radioactives, if you can afford them in the first place, pays off a ship.

Gems, likewise - if purchased at a Po Ni, have a DM-11. Sell at a Ri In, and you've a DM+12 sale. Base price is MCr1/Td again. minimum sale is MCr3 per ton, and maximum purchase is KCr400/Td... a ton or two pays for a lot of ops.

It's actually not hard to make a raft of money with a J2 tramp... but you have to go where you can leverage the odds.
 
Actually, it's more than 400%... an adjusted 2 is 40%, and an adjusted 15 is 400%. That's a potential for 1000%.

And, using book 2...

Wood has an Ag purchase mod of -6; this means that any roll of 8 or less is adjusted to a 2, or 26/36, with a peak purchase roll of 6 (90%)...
An Ag !Ri to Ri !Ag lot of wood is purchased at DM-6 and sold at DM+2 or more (due to brokers.) Without brokers, average purchase price is 47% base, and average sale is 128%. Broker +1 at sale raises to 150% for a 5% cost of sale (1.5-.08=1.42, still a net improvement); +2 is 177% sale for 10% (1.77 - .18= 1.59; still an improvement); +3 is 210% for 15% (2.10 -.32 is 1.78; again, still an improvement), and +4 is 246% sale for 20% (2.46 - .5 = 1.96; again, still an improvement). But, with a base price of Cr1000, the typical shipping is thus Cr470/ton purchase, Cr 1280/ton sale, a net loss at base cost, but with a broker 2 available at sale, a profit even as commercial shipped freight.

Now, radioactives, from an NI to an In, has a purchase -3 and sale +6...
70% average purchas and 246% average sale, and a base price of Cr1,000,000...
add a broker +3 at the sale end, and you cannot lose money if you manage to deliver. Even if you can't carry the lot yourself, shipping it is worth the money and the price of sending a factor with it round trip! (A broker +4 pushes the average sale up to 374%, and worst possible rolls produces purchase 130% and sell at 170%, for a Cr400,000/ton return. 2 Tons is a monthly payment on a Type R.)
One good load of radioactives, if you can afford them in the first place, pays off a ship.

Gems, likewise - if purchased at a Po Ni, have a DM-11. Sell at a Ri In, and you've a DM+12 sale. Base price is MCr1/Td again. minimum sale is MCr3 per ton, and maximum purchase is KCr400/Td... a ton or two pays for a lot of ops.

It's actually not hard to make a raft of money with a J2 tramp... but you have to go where you can leverage the odds.

This is also my answer to Han's comment of using a J4 ship, partially, for warehousing. Buy cheap, hold it till the right market is reached a sell, sell, sell. With a moderate sized hold on a large ship, sooner or later you ALWAYS have the right speculative trade goods for the right market.

Get your own Broker aboard as supercargo, plan your operating routes and you will do just fine. (You are also ripe for pirates but you can afford weapons, shipboard security and even escort ships.)
 
Actually, it's more than 400%... an adjusted 2 is 40%, and an adjusted 15 is 400%. That's a potential for 1000%.

And, using book 2...

Wood has an Ag purchase mod of -6; this means that any roll of 8 or less is adjusted to a 2, or 26/36, with a peak purchase roll of 6 (90%)...
An Ag !Ri to Ri !Ag lot of wood is purchased at DM-6 and sold at DM+2 or more (due to brokers.) Without brokers, average purchase price is 47% base, and average sale is 128%. Broker +1 at sale raises to 150% for a 5% cost of sale (1.5-.08=1.42, still a net improvement); +2 is 177% sale for 10% (1.77 - .18= 1.59; still an improvement); +3 is 210% for 15% (2.10 -.32 is 1.78; again, still an improvement), and +4 is 246% sale for 20% (2.46 - .5 = 1.96; again, still an improvement). But, with a base price of Cr1000, the typical shipping is thus Cr470/ton purchase, Cr 1280/ton sale, a net loss at base cost, but with a broker 2 available at sale, a profit even as commercial shipped freight.

Now, radioactives, from an NI to an In, has a purchase -3 and sale +6...
70% average purchas and 246% average sale, and a base price of Cr1,000,000...
add a broker +3 at the sale end, and you cannot lose money if you manage to deliver. Even if you can't carry the lot yourself, shipping it is worth the money and the price of sending a factor with it round trip! (A broker +4 pushes the average sale up to 374%, and worst possible rolls produces purchase 130% and sell at 170%, for a Cr400,000/ton return. 2 Tons is a monthly payment on a Type R.)
One good load of radioactives, if you can afford them in the first place, pays off a ship.

Gems, likewise - if purchased at a Po Ni, have a DM-11. Sell at a Ri In, and you've a DM+12 sale. Base price is MCr1/Td again. minimum sale is MCr3 per ton, and maximum purchase is KCr400/Td... a ton or two pays for a lot of ops.

It's actually not hard to make a raft of money with a J2 tramp... but you have to go where you can leverage the odds.

The only problem on this is that you must find the right prodcts in the right planets, and, as for Bk2 trade rules, what you find is trully random.

OTOH, if the broker is part of the crew (let’s say the owner of the ship), his percentages is forfeited, being part of the ship’s profits…

Gems, <snip>. Sell at a Ri In, and you've a DM+12 sale

Shame Ri and In are mutually exclusive, both for Pop ranges (Ri requires Pop 6-8, while In requires it at 9+) and atmosphere (Ri requires it breathable, while In requires it either tainted or unbreathable).

And all of this is for Bk2 rules, for MP will allow you to find a golden pair that can be profitable:

e.g. at Glisten (SM 2036) the nomatterwats are purchased at 1500 Cr (KCr 4 -1 (Hi) -1 (In) -1 (As) -1 (stA) + 15*0.1 = KCr 1.5), while the same nomatterwats are sold at Tirem (SM 2233, 4 parsecs away) at 13500 Cr (KCr 5 + 1 (Hi to Hi) + 1 (In to Hi) +1 (In to Ind) + 1 (In to Fl) + 50% TL difference), 12000 Cr profit per dton, while the reverse trade is 5000 Cr per ton (KCr 4 – 1 (Hi) -1 (In) +1 (Fl) + 1 (stC) + 10*0.1) and sold for (KCr 5 + 1 (Hi to Hi) + 1 (In to In) + 1 (In to Hi) + 1 (Fl to In) – 50% TL diff) 4500, for a loss of 500 Cr/dton, but if you carry freight, this will give you 1000 Cr/dton, achieveing a 13000 Cr/dton profit per round trip (modified by actual value table, that, if you have a broker in your crew will give you a 10-20% extra profit).

I have not run the numbers, but I guess this might maintain a J4 trader…

And in MgT, situation comes back to Bk2 style, but giving you steady supplies of high value goods at right planets:

e.g in Glisten you’ll always find radioctives (As) albeit at -1 purchase modifier (+2 per As, -3 per In), luxury goods (hi) at 0 mod or advanced weapons (hiTech) at -2 mod, that will sell at Tirem at modifiers +3, 0 and 0, and in Tirem you will find Advanced vehicles (In at 0 mod), Luxury goods (Hi) at 0 mod, that will sell at Glisten at 0 mod too, but broker skill will apply both to purchase and to sell, so allowing you a nice margin of profits too.

But this thread is the T5 forum, isn’t it (and I don't know what system T5 uses)?
 
I ran some quick numbers using the T5 ACS shipyard site. Given my lack of familiarity with the site and with T5, there may be some inadvertent errors, but hopefully they are at least consistent across the analysis. I assumed a 2000-ton freighter, built at TL-12 for J-2 service or TL-13 for J-4 service; I also assumed a 40-year working life, with 25 jumps/year. I did NOT include operating costs (such as crew, fuel, or maintenance). I did require that each ship operate at maximum Jump at all times, and required a 20% return on the investment in the ship to cover mortgage interest, operating costs, and profit for the shipowner.

For the J-2 freighter, I get a cost of MCr 400 and 1300 tons capacity, for a cost of Cr 184.6 per ton-parsec. For the J-4 freighter, I get a cost of MCr 560 and 700 tons capacity, for a cost of Cr 280 per ton-parsec. This is a difference of 95.4 credits per ton-parsec, or about 51.7%.

For a hypothetical high-value trade, I ran two scenarios. In both scenarios, money invested in the freight represents a 5% annual percentage rate cost. This could be a direct credit charge indicating that we borrowed money at 5% annual interest to buy the cargo in expectation that a profitable sale at the destination will pay off the loan and make us a net profit. This could also be an opportunity charge, meaning that we could have chosen to invest the money in some other way that would earn at least 5% interest on an annualized basis.

In the first scenario, the goods are shipped to the destination 4 parsecs away by either J-2 or J-4 freighter, and the proceeds of the sale are returned by J-4 X-boat, meaning that the only difference is the one-way trip time for the goods. In this scenario, the J-4 ship is economically competitive for cargoes that are worth 50,000 credits per ton or more. In the second scenario, the proceeds are returned via the same ship that delivered the goods; this effectively doubles the time advantage of the J-4 ship, making it economically competitive for cargoes that are worth 25,000 credits per ton or more. If you assume a 10% APR, the numbers change to 33,800 and 16,400 respectively.
 
As for air traffic, some goods do move by airplane, but even without having checked the figures, I'm quite confident that the majority of goods (by bulk) go by ship.

They do; worldwide air freight is a few percent by weight, but a larger share by value, since air freight is most cost-effective for low-mass, high value items.

No, the Al Morai routes do not follow the X-boat routes as such (that is, follow them because they are there).

I don't think anybody is arguing that trade follows the X-boat routes simply because they are there. I'm certainly not.

While some materials state that "trade generally follows x-boat links", this much like saying that trade generally follows major highways and shipping lanes. It is a silly statement, but people say things like that all of the time. It is silly because it has the cause and effect backwards. While it might be true that building a highway has created trade in some cases, the reality is the other way around: the infrastructure is built where it is needed. For the most part, highways, shipping lanes, and the like are created to increase and facilitate trade where it already existed.

Similarly, if you look at the canonical history of the Imperium, trade came first. When the X-boat system was created, the X-boat links "generally" followed the major trade links at the time. There were of course exceptions - the X-boat system was also required to include capitals and other strategic systems. Given that the decision-making would have been a political process, I'm also quite sure that some X-boat links were created or moved based on the political influence of influential nobles and planets. In the hundreds of years since the system was set up, trade patterns may have changed faster than the X-boat system changed its route structure. Finally, it is well-known that the X-boat system is sub-optimal for rapid communications - clearly, other factors (such as politics) were more important than ensuring that the system utilized the maximum jump capacity of its ships.

The biggest issue with trade and X-boat links are the game mechanics for creating X-boat links. In most versions of Traveller, there is little or no economic justification for the placement of the links. This is something that I feel a good referee or author should address when building up subsectors and sectors: X-boat links should be thoughtfully placed to (roughly) align with trade routes, accounting for politics, capitals, borders, history, and other factors that might influence them. T5 is somewhat better by calculating an Importance rating for systems (based on population, bases, and a few other factors), and requiring X-boat links for highly Important systems.
 
I wonder if Megacorporations might be subject to "strings attached" for some of their deals ... you get lots of lucrative J2 and J3 links (with mail contracts and guaranteed financing) but you must provide regular service (at a loss) to a few J4 links. Overall, the contract is profitable even if a few links are not.
I would have no quibble with any official canon to that effect. What I object to with the bit that S4 quoted was a) that the trade routes that follows the X-boat routes are described as 'major' and b) the implication that the X-boat connections contribute to the status as major trade routes.

I can't argue with that, except to point out the obvious that the starship construction rules actually suggest per-parsec freight rates should be the norm rather than per-jump freight rates.
Sure, but if I'm getting stick for not following CAW (canon as written ;)), I reserve the right to use CAW to defend my opinion. Even CAW that I consider equally broken.

"Humongous" becomes the operative word. The speculation rules allow for profit margins over 400% as a possibility, but those are statistically rare and not sustainable (anyone who rolls "2" for purchase price and "12" for sale price every time is cheating). So there I agree completely.
My take is that these kind of profits crop up once in a blue moon for tramps; that the rules that allow them are for PC-run free traders and not regularily sheduled freighters. Regular shipping would be a lot more averaged out.

* [I emphasize 'some' because I agree that most cargo will travel by the cheapest means available. I do not advocate a fleet of J4 superfreighters based on an occasional 10 dTon shipment of multi-million credit cargo.]
So not the backbone of a major trade route then?


Hans
 
This is also my answer to Han's comment of using a J4 ship, partially, for warehousing. Buy cheap, hold it till the right market is reached a sell, sell, sell. With a moderate sized hold on a large ship, sooner or later you ALWAYS have the right speculative trade goods for the right market.
Using the trade RAW, sure. That's part of what's unrealistic about the trade RAW. Which, I suppose I'd better repeat, can be fine for a game[*] but not so fine for setting-building.

[*] I still remember fondly the game with a referee who played By The Book where we earned 3 billion credits in three game evenings. Mind you, that did force our referee to change the game drastically (First thing we did was hire a bunch of NPCs to do the quest we'd been forced to accept :devil:).


Hans
 
I don't think anybody is arguing that trade follows the X-boat routes simply because they are there. I'm certainly not.
And yet the statement that I'm getting aggro for disrespecting says just that. Or, should I say, appears to me to be saying just that. If all it actually says is that X-boat routes and major trade routes tend to overlap, with no cause and effect involved, then I'm fine with it.

The biggest issue with trade and X-boat links are the game mechanics for creating X-boat links. In most versions of Traveller, there is little or no economic justification for the placement of the links.
There's not supposed to be any. The X-boat network was designed to tie together the Imperial bureaucracy. That means the primary links going from subsector capital to subsector capital, not major trade world to major trade world. In between, worlds with major political power would be lobbying for their own X-boat links, and worlds with political power will often be worlds with lots of trade, but that's not quite the same thing.

This is something that I feel a good referee or author should address when building up subsectors and sectors: X-boat links should be thoughtfully placed to (roughly) align with trade routes, accounting for politics, capitals, borders, history, and other factors that might influence them. T5 is somewhat better by calculating an Importance rating for systems (based on population, bases, and a few other factors), and requiring X-boat links for highly Important systems.
The canonical X-boat links seems to have been established by random die rolls and Marc Miller's old "I don't know the explanation myself but I'm sure there must be one, so no retcons!" attitude (thankfully slightly softened recently) has kept the official routes unchanged. Giving us such gems as the detour to Pixie on the three-parsec route from Boughene to Kinorb and the nine-link route between Rhylanor and Regina and the multiple doglegs on routes that don't have any tracks to force such doglegs.

Meanwhile, the IN's jump-6 couriers must have been beating the X-boats like a big bass drum since 1000 (and their jump-5 couriers must have been outperforming the X-boats since 700). That nine-link route from Rhylanor to Regina is a two link route by "NavyNet".


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And yet the statement that I'm getting aggro for disrespecting says just that. Or, should I say, appears to me to be saying just that. If all it actually says is that X-boat routes and major trade routes tend to overlap, with no cause and effect involved, then I'm fine with it.

As far as I can tell, the citation that touched off this entire discussion is from The Traveller Book, at the bottom of page 150:

Xboat Routes: The heavy lines connecting several worlds are express boat routes providing communications between worlds of the Imperium. These routes are also common trade and transport routes with regular commercial transportation provided by one or more transport megacorporations. Service to locations not on these routes is less frequent and less dependable.

Note the use of "also", which which is used to append additional information without indicating a causal relationship. My read of this statement is that X-Boat routes and trade routes commonly coincide, but no cause-and-effect connection is explicitly stated or implied.

Other Traveller canon material makes it clear that the trade routes came first, and subsequently "selected locations along major trade routes are established as express stations" (Supplement 8, page 26). There is no information on what the selection criteria were. From the available evidence, I would suggest it was more political than practical, resulting in a system that overall averages less than J-3.

The X-boat network was designed to tie together the Imperial bureaucracy. That means the primary links going from subsector capital to subsector capital, not major trade world to major trade world.

Yes - as you point out, even by this criteria the network in the Marches doesn't make a lot of sense. I suggest that the in-universe "reality" is that the Imperial charter for the X-boat system was to tie together the subsector, sector, domain, and Imperial capitals by establishing J-4 links along major trade routes.

In between, worlds with major political power would be lobbying for their own X-boat links, and worlds with political power will often be worlds with lots of trade, but that's not quite the same thing.

Yes, and rather than play politics or push back, the Scout service (which has always been the least politically well-connected of the Imperial services) decided to appease almost everyone. The result is that political forces have been able to distort the network to the point where it arguably does not actually meet its charter. This distortion is particularly evident in the frontier regions such as The Spinward Marches.

IMTU, Scout officials in the Marches readily agree that the network makes little sense, but claim that their hands are tied: The IISS has no budget to establish new links, and it is politically impossible to re-route existing links due to long-standing opposition to such changes by the Duchess of Mora and other nobles allied with her. It is interesting to note that the existing network places Delphine of Mora close to her allies in Trin and Lunion (6 weeks from Mora) and to the Domain capital (10 weeks from Mora), while isolating her primary rival near the end of a long branch of the network (Regina is 22 weeks from Deneb and 12 weeks from Mora). This puts Norris in an interesting position: either he can govern from Deneb and put Mora in a position to meddle in Marches with a relative free hand, he could govern from Regina but have to deal with long communication delays, or he could govern from Mora where Delphine has her power base. But that's just IMTU.


The canonical X-boat links seems to have been established by random die rolls

Agreed. In the 1977 edition of Book 3, there are rules and a table for determining jump routes between worlds, at the bottom of Page 1 and the top of Page 2. Routes are based on the starport types of the two worlds and the distance of the Jump (from J-1 to J-4) and a die roll, resulting in effectively random routes. I suspect that a version of this approach was used in creating the Spinward Marches.

The revised (1981) edition of Book 3 and The Traveller Book instead put the entire process in the referee's hands. These rules state that "Within the subsector, local governments will have established communications or trade routes connecting some (but not all) worlds. These routes serve as a conduit for messages between businesses and between governments as well as between people. They also serve as the basic routes that liners and large freighters travel. The referee should examine the subsector map and connect key worlds with communications routes." (TTB, page 81). Presumably this approach was used for The Solomani Rim, and the routes arguably make more sense.

Traveller5 introduces a new procedure, where you calculate Importance based on starport type, tech level, trade codes, population, and bases. The world with highest Importance is the capital (number of trade codes is used to break ties). All Important worlds (typically Starport A or B, TL-10+, Population 7+, and either military bases or some combination Ag, Ri, Hi, or In) are on the X-boat network; the referee is responsible for designating links, possibly via less-important worlds, to ensure that all of the Important worlds are on the network.

Overall, I think that the T5 approach is the best of the bunch. Done well, generation using this procedure should make X-boat routes roughly align with trade lanes (and I presume this is the overall goal). It is still pretty subjective (and still leaves us with a Spinward Marches map with some very weird X-boat routes).

Meanwhile, the IN's jump-6 couriers must have been beating the X-boats like a big bass drum since 1000 (and their jump-5 couriers must have been outperforming the X-boats since 700). That nine-link route from Rhylanor to Regina is a two link route by "NavyNet".

Agreed, and this is definitely canonical. There are multiple references in MT that key Navy officers and political figures would be informed of important developments well in advance of the public notification through the X-boat network.
 
Yes - as you point out, even by this criteria the network in the Marches doesn't make a lot of sense. I suggest that the in-universe "reality" is that the Imperial charter for the X-boat system was to tie together the subsector, sector, domain, and Imperial capitals by establishing J-4 links along major trade routes.
My suggestion is that everything we read about the X-boats be considered viewpoint writing rather than the authorial voice material it appears at first sight to be. In other words, it's what Imperial propaganda tells the broad population is the truth, but it isn't the truth.

The real truth[*] is that when Jump-5 was invented, the IN managed to get it classified and thus restricted to its own use. When J5 navy couriers came along (one of the first uses for the J5 drive), Imperial dukes began sending duplicate copies of their report by navy courier and the Emperor and the ministeries began sending duplicate orders the same way (the originals no doubt went by X-boat ;)). When pressure from the civilian side caused the J5 drive to be declassified (in, say, 30 years or so?), the X-boat were already sidelined, but after having been hyped so thoroughly as they had, sheer pride prevented the Emperor from admitting it. So the X-boats didn't get the funds to upgrade to J5. Possibly some clumsy language even made it illegal for them to employ J5 X-boats. Much the same thing happened after the invention of J6. Classified by the IN, X-boats even more marginalized (though still useful for local news distribution :devil:).

What this means is that for 400 years the X-boats have been a gigantic boondoggle. Getting an X-boat connection has been a matter of local pride and the X-boat service has had no reason not to create as many links as they could get permission for. Indeed, the more links, the bigger budget. And if a few Scout administrators got some nice bribes out of it, who's to care?

Admittedly this does not explain X-boat stations on worlds too poor to bribe anyone, but it's a start. Places like Pixie may be the result of pure budget-padding (Though I still think it should have been possible to find a less blatantly silly place for an X-boat station).

[*] That is, my suggestion for what the real truth might be, not my dictatorial decree that everybody MUST accept, on pain of... um... ah... or ELSE!!! :p
IMTU, Scout officials in the Marches readily agree that the network makes little sense, but claim that their hands are tied: The IISS has no budget to establish new links, and it is politically impossible to re-route existing links due to long-standing opposition to such changes by the Duchess of Mora and other nobles allied with her. It is interesting to note that the existing network places Delphine of Mora close to her allies in Trin and Lunion (6 weeks from Mora) and to the Domain capital (10 weeks from Mora), while isolating her primary rival near the end of a long branch of the network (Regina is 22 weeks from Deneb and 12 weeks from Mora). This puts Norris in an interesting position: either he can govern from Deneb and put Mora in a position to meddle in Marches with a relative free hand, he could govern from Regina but have to deal with long communication delays, or he could govern from Mora where Delphine has her power base. But that's just IMTU.
Why this wouldn't work IMTU: Both Norris and Delphine have access to navy couriers and would be using them rather than (or in addition to -- regulations quite possibly still require reports sent by X-boat) the X-boat network. None of Delphine's shenanigans would have the slightest effect.

Another thing that gets overlooked all the time is than an X-boat route doesn't rely on anything analogous to railroad tracks. An X-boat link is two X-boat tenders within 4 parsecs of each other, one or more X-boats, and a set of jump coordinates. One implication of this is that practically no expense is involved in changing an X-boat route assuming the X-boat service is already maintaining a vessel capable of transporting an X-boat tender. Another implication is that there is absolutely no reason why an X-boat-conveyed message from, for example, Regina to Efate should take four weeks to get through (Regina-Roup-Feri-Boughene-Efate). It can be done in two: Regina-Roup-Efate. (Of course, a navy courier can do it in one :devil:).
Agreed, and this is definitely canonical. There are multiple references in MT that key Navy officers and political figures would be informed of important developments well in advance of the public notification through the X-boat network.
Though not much in advance of public information conveyed by J5 and J6 passenger liners between high-population worlds and by private corporate couriers.

Yes, the existence of J5 and J6 passenger liners is an assumption on my part (Though I'd prefer to call it a deduction ;)). The existence of private J5 couriers, OTOH, is canonical (Oberlindes is said to have some).


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