Dealing with Lockdown
- Thread starter Timerover51
- Start date
BlackBat242
SOC-14 1K
Here in Utah, with a population of 3.3 million, we have tested 68,311, confirmed 3,213 cases, hospitilized 268, had 218 recover, and had 25 die.
In neighboring Colorado, with a population of 5.8 million, tested 47,466, confirmed 10,106, hospitilized 1,880, recovered (no data), and had 449 die.
Utah has only done a partial shutdown, while Colorado went into nearly-full lockdown 4 weeks ago.
Utah public & private schools are shut down for the rest of this school year (will reopen in late August).
A first cousin of mine is one of Colorado's confirmed-hospitilized-recovered patients.
In neighboring Colorado, with a population of 5.8 million, tested 47,466, confirmed 10,106, hospitilized 1,880, recovered (no data), and had 449 die.
Utah has only done a partial shutdown, while Colorado went into nearly-full lockdown 4 weeks ago.
Utah public & private schools are shut down for the rest of this school year (will reopen in late August).
A first cousin of mine is one of Colorado's confirmed-hospitilized-recovered patients.
Timerover51
SOC-14 5K
The word that my church is getting from its missionaries and schools in South Africa is that the virus is picking up steam there, but the government is either not getting reports or is sitting on them. Further north, things are complicated by a massive locust outbreak in combination from the virus. All in all, Africa is just at the beginning stages.
The have been reports in the U.S. of major losses in Ecuador, but again, government data is very sketchy and the reports have all been coming from the seaport of Guayaquil. Venezuela reports are very sketchy, but since Maduro is blasting the U.S. over it, it may be starting to hit hard. Brazil is gambling on "herd immunity", so is a very large test case of whether a shut-down helps or not.
Protests against state shutdowns have been growing, and Facebook has announced that any posts advocating protests against the state shut-downs will be taken down. Side note: There were 2.3 million firearms sold in the U.S. in the month of March. Gun shops are having problems keeping up with the demand, and some calibers of ammo are also in short supply. This is with a fair number of states refusing to allow gun shops to open.
The have been reports in the U.S. of major losses in Ecuador, but again, government data is very sketchy and the reports have all been coming from the seaport of Guayaquil. Venezuela reports are very sketchy, but since Maduro is blasting the U.S. over it, it may be starting to hit hard. Brazil is gambling on "herd immunity", so is a very large test case of whether a shut-down helps or not.
Protests against state shutdowns have been growing, and Facebook has announced that any posts advocating protests against the state shut-downs will be taken down. Side note: There were 2.3 million firearms sold in the U.S. in the month of March. Gun shops are having problems keeping up with the demand, and some calibers of ammo are also in short supply. This is with a fair number of states refusing to allow gun shops to open.
Disinfectants (like Lysol), sanitizers, and related cleaning supplies are still hard to find down here at my store. Same with pasta, rice, flour. They exist, but not in volume, and the brands many times are not recognizable. We just got a load of small, 2lb bags of flour apparently produced by Navajo's. Not a typical item our store stocks.
The COBOL thing is interesting, in that I think it's more a testament to the ubiquity and longevity of IBM than of COBOL per se. I don't know, but I'm guessing the vast majority of this code is running on IBM systems.
COBOL is not particularly difficult to learn, especially when you have thousands of lines of working example code. But dealing with the IBM operating environment, that is a different beast.
It is very unfamiliar to most people, even those who have used "computers".
The COBOL thing is interesting, in that I think it's more a testament to the ubiquity and longevity of IBM than of COBOL per se. I don't know, but I'm guessing the vast majority of this code is running on IBM systems.
COBOL is not particularly difficult to learn, especially when you have thousands of lines of working example code. But dealing with the IBM operating environment, that is a different beast.
It is very unfamiliar to most people, even those who have used "computers".
(laugh) one notes that in all the apocalypse movies and books, guns really aren't all that common, probably because if they were common the movies and books would be really short ....
keep remembering that line in the movie "we were soldiers" when somebody asks sergeant major grandpa why he doesn't carry a weapon - "by the time I need a weapon there'll be plenty laying on the ground."
our local walmart loaded up on mexican bleach. not sure it's because of covid19 though, the mexicans here only buy mexican. mexican powdered milk, mexican coke, even mexican lottery tickets.
paper stuff aisle is still empty, just bare metal shelf top to bottom front to back all the way across the store, looks like something out of the soviet union or venezuela. don't understand that.
flykiller;611895... paper stuff aisle is still empty said:
Condottiere
SOC-14 5K
Looking at local statistics, if you're seventy plus and catch it, fatality rates skyrocket; fifty plus infection rates are high, but it becomes deadly from sixty onwards.
Considering the natural tendency of youth to congregate, and likely family interaction, this is probably far from over, especially if it turns out a lot of people are carriers.
Considering the natural tendency of youth to congregate, and likely family interaction, this is probably far from over, especially if it turns out a lot of people are carriers.
They all take place after all the ammo is gone. Look how long it's taken The Walking Dead to run out of ammo. Now they're using sticks.
Sure, we have some of that here. Not a lot of Navajos, however.
The pasta aisle trended toward having just the house brand pasta vs the "name brands". But recently even that was gone. We did have some boxes of "Chickpea Spaghetti" however.
Yea, paper goods are still raided as well.
Beyong those standouts, most everything else is coming back. The meat counter is slowly filling up. Milk, bread, eggs are all filled up. At one point they were giving away bread and milk. They had so much of it, they were just handing it out.
The bread and milk industry are well suited to this since they're pretty much on a daily, to 2 day production schedule. So the entire industry is built around restocking everything every couple of days. The pasta sauce folks -- not so much. When you have 30 different pasta sauces with 1 yr shelf life, one smaller plant can fill a lot of store shelves over time. They probably make large batches at a time and store it, then dwindle the supplies out until they're low.
Even in the world of "just in time" manufacturing, I think canned food makers stockpile quite a bit and build their production lines around that assumption that the stockpile will last them some days/weeks while they churn out a different recipe. "This week, we make 100,000 cans of chick soup. Next week, barley beef."
Condottiere
SOC-14 5K
Meanwhile... Can Farts Spread The Coronavirus?
Quarantinewhile... It turns out that farts may be as dangerous as coughs and sneezes when it comes to spreading the coronavirus.
https://youtu.be/Nbmr_eM2DnQ?t=315
Social distancing.
Australia, the cutting edge on cutting the cheese.
Quarantinewhile... It turns out that farts may be as dangerous as coughs and sneezes when it comes to spreading the coronavirus.
https://youtu.be/Nbmr_eM2DnQ?t=315
Social distancing.
Australia, the cutting edge on cutting the cheese.
Straybow
SOC-14 1K
No, the main difference is that SK had one outbreak locus. Almost all traffic goes to Seoul. We had both far greater traffic and multiple destinations. The SF Bay area had about 5000/day until Trump stopped flights. LA had about 8000/day. I have no figures on NYC. If the US only had to worry about NYC, there would never have been restrictions on the rest of the country and we wouldn't be in this economic bind.
Second, the early tests available were Chinese or WHO, and the US CDC didn't trust them. It turns out many were defective, although the some batches of CDC designed tests were also defective. Note also that China was telling everyone that it didn't spread human-to-human. As late as Jan 15 China would only admit that it "may" spread in human population.
Third, the truth is we really only needed to worry about NYC because of their dependence on mass transit becoming a mass infection vector. As Dennis Prager said, if Montana had thousands of cases and NYC and other major urban areas had single digits we wouldn't see the one-size-fits-all solution put in place.
Here in beautiful California, only 34 of 58 counties have any CV19 deaths. Only 10 counties have 10 or more deaths. The entire 39M pop state has 542 deaths, compared to 8.3M NYC with 13k deaths. LA has 10M and only 220 deaths. There is simply no comparison of risk.
Under normal circumstances CA would declare LA, San Diego, and Santa Clara as outbreak zones. They'd put some restrictions in place and investigate hot spots. They'd leave the rest of us to handle sensible social distancing and hygiene on our own.
Lastly, the movement and commerce restriction will not stop the spread. As soon as we're allowed to go back to work the infection rates will climb. "Flatten the curve" does not mean stopping infection, only delaying infection. If anything, the flattened curve will be extended in time until "herd immunity" pushes effective R0 down again.
If it behaves like seasonal cold and flu, then the weather will help push that down quickly. Unless we're still restricted. If we aren't released until the fall, then we're headed back into cold and flu season and that would be a positive feedback situation.
The caveat here is that perhaps the virus has already spread to half the population with little or no symptoms, so reaching herd immunity will be achieved fairly quickly once normal commerce returns.
Timerover51
SOC-14 5K
After this virus episode, that is going to be an underestimate. Guys are buying cases of 500 to a 1000 rounds a month.
Last edited:
Pure cotton or linen undies and wool, cotton, or linen trews provide sufficient filtration that 6' is reasonable...
after all, trouser weaves are often tighter than the sheet/shirt weight fabrics for which 2 layers are recommended as the standard for mask making. Don't have the link to hand.
Condottiere
SOC-14 5K
The only solution is developing a vaccine, and hoping it doesn't mutate, otherwise it becomes an issue of tolerable collateral damage.
This thing is going to get weaponized. Or has, by some fringe theories.
Early on I knew it would be historic, and change us socio economically: there has been some push towards reshoring for some form of self sufficiency, just no economic or political incentive to do so.
My brother tells me there was panic buying, and my sister still complains of shortages in Florida, whereas my experience was basically a potato famine which may have stretched over a weekend.
You can wash fruits and vegetables, what may get iffy is if it hits the meat packaging industry, not that I ever held the American one in any high regard once I understood how it operated.
This thing is going to get weaponized. Or has, by some fringe theories.
Early on I knew it would be historic, and change us socio economically: there has been some push towards reshoring for some form of self sufficiency, just no economic or political incentive to do so.
My brother tells me there was panic buying, and my sister still complains of shortages in Florida, whereas my experience was basically a potato famine which may have stretched over a weekend.
You can wash fruits and vegetables, what may get iffy is if it hits the meat packaging industry, not that I ever held the American one in any high regard once I understood how it operated.
Some restaurants up here in NDakota are doing just that.
The current situation is a good example of why biologicals make a poor weapon: indiscriminate, hard to control, poorly focused. One is as likely to cripple one's allies as one's enemies, and impacts on bystanders can have unwanted effects: A hits B and suddenly finds that C's output of some critical commodity has been curtailed by an uncontrolled infection there. Seems to be useful only as a doomsday weapon, forcing a negotiated end to hostilities if you find yourself losing by threatening to take everyone with you if they take you down.
The players in the international arena seem to be getting much better mileage out of cyberwar and infowar, both of which have the advantage that the enemy is not likely to start shooting if you engage in them.
I've been working from home the past month and a half. Interesting experience, hard to draw a clear boundary between work and home. You stop work to do some dishes, work a bit late to compensate, find yourself working longer than usual to meet some deadline or get something off the plate. Not having the office resources to print or scan or mail things has complicated things quite a bit. I'm glad to be able to work and earn an income without putting the family at risk, but it's created some conflict here at times.
