Dealing with Lockdown
- Thread starter Timerover51
- Start date
Straybow
SOC-14 1K
SARS-COV-2 is an RNA virus. There are no vaccines against any RNA viruses. Polio, various poxes, rubella, etc are all DNA viruses. RNA viruses mutate at about 100 times the rate of DNA viruses. In the nearly 70 years since Salk's first polio vaccine, polio might have mutated as much as the SC2 has mutated since it appeared in November.
I'm afraid you're wrong in this. Polioviruses are RNA ones, as are measles, influenza, mumps, or rabies, and we have vaccines against all of them (though influenza one must be renewed, as it mutates quite quickly, as you say, and rabies immunization is for limited time).
Not that I believe we can erradicate it, as there are animal reservoirs for it (as for influenza or rabies, again to give some examples).
As an aside, about Polio. There were 3 diferent viri producing it (poliovirus 1, 2 and 3). Type 3 was considered erradicated in 2015, and type 2 last October, but it went unnoticed, at least in Spanish press (much to my surprise, as it's a good piece of news, and we've not much of those last times). It seems good nwed don't sell newspapers...
Xerxeskingofking
SOC-13
a very quick look at the wiki page for RNA viruses says that Polio, rubella, Rabies and several other commonly vaccinated viruses are also RNA based. form a significantly different family of RNA Viruses, yes, but still RNA based. So, clearly, being RNA based alone is not a preventative to a vaccine being developed.
It might well be only valid for a short period of time (like the annual flu jabs), but it still should be possible to develop a vaccine.
If it was utterly pointless due to the (well known for many decades) fundamental properties of coronaviruses in general, Im sure some of the many hundreds of virologists around the world would have leaked such a fact by now.
Timerover51
SOC-14 5K
I will not be doing any more posting here. Any comments will be reserved for my blog.
As of the end of April, there were 8 different vaccine candidates that had begun trials per WHO:
https://www.who.int/who-documents-detail/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines
Nevertheless, I wouldn't be betting on a vaccine near-term. On average only 6% of vaccine candidates are found safe and effective so even with 8, it is a 3:2 dog that any of them work out.
https://www.who.int/who-documents-detail/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines
Nevertheless, I wouldn't be betting on a vaccine near-term. On average only 6% of vaccine candidates are found safe and effective so even with 8, it is a 3:2 dog that any of them work out.
Straybow
SOC-14 1K
Really? <read read read> Hmmmph. OK.
Well, influenza shot isn't a vaccine because rapid mutation makes exact match impossible. It doesn't confer immunity, it merely helps make the infection easier to fight off (shorter duration, less dangerous for people with susceptible conditions). It only works that well when they correctly project which strains are likely to dominate. They typically chose only 3 strains to include. If a different strain hits, the flu shot does nothing. If it is h3n2, as in 2018, it is very hard to match it properly in the flu shot.
The common cold is rhinovirus, which doesn't have a vaccine because there are too many strains. Between flu and rhino I had (wrongly) understood that it was characteristic of RNA viruses to mutate too quickly for vaccine to work.
Maybe it is something about the way flu mutates that is different from polio, rubella, etc.
Well, influenza shot isn't a vaccine because rapid mutation makes exact match impossible. It doesn't confer immunity, it merely helps make the infection easier to fight off (shorter duration, less dangerous for people with susceptible conditions). It only works that well when they correctly project which strains are likely to dominate. They typically chose only 3 strains to include. If a different strain hits, the flu shot does nothing. If it is h3n2, as in 2018, it is very hard to match it properly in the flu shot.
The common cold is rhinovirus, which doesn't have a vaccine because there are too many strains. Between flu and rhino I had (wrongly) understood that it was characteristic of RNA viruses to mutate too quickly for vaccine to work.
Maybe it is something about the way flu mutates that is different from polio, rubella, etc.
Condottiere
SOC-14 5K
To me, the real problem was connected with globalization in it's current form, in that with air travel it could be anywhere in the world within a day, though despite what appears the usual bureaucratic cover my ass in Wuhan, the central Politburo had a rather rapid understanding what was going on, and acted covertly immediately in securing medical supplies from international sources.
While at first glance those under sixty appear reasonably safe, there are reports it's triggering some form of severe reaction in kids.
I pretty much suspect that Westworld is a lot more closer in our future, since robots won't get infected by that form of virus.
While at first glance those under sixty appear reasonably safe, there are reports it's triggering some form of severe reaction in kids.
I pretty much suspect that Westworld is a lot more closer in our future, since robots won't get infected by that form of virus.
Spain is begining to deescalate th elockdawn, though at a parudent tempo (and Madrid, Barcelona and their metropolitan zones are likely to be the last ones, as they are the most dangerous and affected zones).
Now we can already leae home for a walk (at determined times, according age, to avoid eldelry and kids to coincide), and, while numbers have raised a little, expansión is quite low ("only" about 3-400 new cases a day, far from the nearly 4000 we reached). Coundown to now is about 225000 infected and over 26000 deaths (out o fa population of about 47M). Deaths take a Little more to decline, as the disease usually takes about 3-4 weeks to kill, but we reduced it to less thatn 200 deaths a day, and ICU's are no longuer in risk of saturation at short term. And the risk of a new outbreak in autumn is still a wild card...
Economical effects are stil lto see, but they are expected to be catastrophic or nearly so, though recuperation is also expected to be quite quick (even so we talk about 2 years or so), asa the cause is not economical properly.
Please ,don't be hurried in deescalate it. US is about 3-4 weeks ehind Spain in the CoVid-19 effects, for good or bad, and you have the possibility to learn from other's mistakes. Please, don't throw this possibility away.
Now we can already leae home for a walk (at determined times, according age, to avoid eldelry and kids to coincide), and, while numbers have raised a little, expansión is quite low ("only" about 3-400 new cases a day, far from the nearly 4000 we reached). Coundown to now is about 225000 infected and over 26000 deaths (out o fa population of about 47M). Deaths take a Little more to decline, as the disease usually takes about 3-4 weeks to kill, but we reduced it to less thatn 200 deaths a day, and ICU's are no longuer in risk of saturation at short term. And the risk of a new outbreak in autumn is still a wild card...
Economical effects are stil lto see, but they are expected to be catastrophic or nearly so, though recuperation is also expected to be quite quick (even so we talk about 2 years or so), asa the cause is not economical properly.
Please ,don't be hurried in deescalate it. US is about 3-4 weeks ehind Spain in the CoVid-19 effects, for good or bad, and you have the possibility to learn from other's mistakes. Please, don't throw this possibility away.
Straybow
SOC-14 1K
The whole idea of "flattening the curve" was to keep hospitals from being overwhelmed. But this extended shut-down instead has lead to hospital layoffs and potential bankruptcies because normal elective surgeries and even outpatient services are suspended.
It is a fool's errand to think that the virus can be eliminated. Our actions can't really change the pool of virus in the population without a vaccine.
It is a fool's errand to think that the virus can be eliminated. Our actions can't really change the pool of virus in the population without a vaccine.
creativehum
SOC-14 1K
Not quite.
Making sure hospitals were not overwhelmed was part of it.
Another massive part of "flattening the curve" was to give the federal government time to put in place systems for testing and tracing -- like any other functioning first world nation managed to do.
The fact that the current administration chose to slough off that responsibility doesn't mean we shouldn't have flattened the curve. It means the feds blew the window they were given to get work done.
This is clearly not true. Testing and tracing are actions that can change the pool of virus in the population before a vaccine is found.
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Condottiere
SOC-14 5K
I'm pretty much afraid that we all will now be legally tracked, and determined who we have, and who has, contact with us, making the wiping of automobile license plates and faces in front of massage parlours by Streetview rather quaint.
I'm betting a lot of people start turning off their mobile devices and dumping them into aluminium foiled chips packets.
I'm betting a lot of people start turning off their mobile devices and dumping them into aluminium foiled chips packets.
coliver988
SOC-14 1K
to sort of get out of the political area this is shifting to, here's how I cope with the lockdown.
I am working from home - my company started early and we did a few test days of everyone working from home back in February to figure out what we needed to do. Such as really beefing up the VPN. Then in March they decided that at risk people and anyone over 50 would be working from home. As I am over 50, there I went. By the end of the day they decided the whole company should work from home.
So the last 10+ weeks I've been working from home. I am a software developer and my home rig is better than my work system so for me it is actually better. Plus, more than 14 years of working from home taught me a number of things about keeping work and real life in some sort of balance.
The main difference is not being able to get out. I've been on 3 grocery trips the last 3 weeks, and helped my son clear out his dorm so I have managed to get out of the house. But the lack of gym access has made me use the little bits of gym stuff I have in the garage - hey, finally using that chin up bar I put up a few years ago!
My car, due to lack of driving, died completed. Managed to jump start it yesterday for a quick drive, and hopefully a longer drive today.
The 1st few weeks were rough as it had been more than a decade since working from home. And at one point 75% of the company was going to get furloughed (we design shirts for companies like Disney, Ron Jon, etc. As they shut down, so did orders and revenue). Somehow I was considered an essential employee so was going to stay, but the developers I manage were to get furloughed. So that was really depressing. But then the loan did come through, so we're all still employed, if at a discount rate. Company is doing better - we are the ones designing and making all the Disney masks, and they just ordered 10.2 million. So perhaps I am wondering why I am still at 76% of my normal salary?
And while the lockdown here in NC is slightly reduced for phase 1, so we'll see what happens, my office will probably be working from home through the end of the year.
My son is working at a smoothie place in the mall, wears gloves and a mask, and does a lot of hand washing. But my wife, who survived cancer 3 years ago and has basically no immune system, is staying at her mother's house once my son started working. So that is not a good thing, but I happen to like her alive and at a distance rather than potentially dead and nearby.
So each day, I get up, make something for breakfast (which used to be my favorite meal as I normally go to the gym & have no breakfast, so only having it on the weekends made it special. it is no longer special), then wander down to the basement to work. I do have a office-like space so it is easier to get away, so to speak. Although this is also my mini-painting area so there is some fun stuff on video calls! My son & I do some sort of workout about mid-day, then I work the rest of the day & figure out something for dinner. We watch an episode of something we have on DVD (currently started the 70's Wonder Woman, season 1. Fight choreography has evolved quite a bit but it is a fun show. I killed off cable & TV when my son was little so I would not become one of "those" parents who plop their kid down in front of the TV. Must have worked, Eagle Scout and Dean's List at college for a high GPA). Then I read then go to bed and he plays XBox until something like 2 or 3am while I snore, alone, upstairs.
So far, I've stayed away from junk food and stuff. Dealing with stuff one day at a time, but honestly, other than the lack of a real gym, once I adjusted I am good. Being a developer implies I am not the most social of people to begin with!
Gaming has adjusted - playing via Skype is not the same but better than nothing. While it works for the theater of the mind type of games, I also GM a Fantasy Trip game which is more tactically oriented. So I share my screen with the map and have them tell me where they are. My blog in my sig goes over some of how we've managed so far with that. But I am looking forward to face to face games again! My Sunday group, a father & his two sons, are even more paranoid than my wife I think. His wife works in the health field and they self-quarantined early as she knew the impact. Hopefully we can restart face to face and get to play with all our toys in the next few weeks.
I am working from home - my company started early and we did a few test days of everyone working from home back in February to figure out what we needed to do. Such as really beefing up the VPN. Then in March they decided that at risk people and anyone over 50 would be working from home. As I am over 50, there I went. By the end of the day they decided the whole company should work from home.
So the last 10+ weeks I've been working from home. I am a software developer and my home rig is better than my work system so for me it is actually better. Plus, more than 14 years of working from home taught me a number of things about keeping work and real life in some sort of balance.
The main difference is not being able to get out. I've been on 3 grocery trips the last 3 weeks, and helped my son clear out his dorm so I have managed to get out of the house. But the lack of gym access has made me use the little bits of gym stuff I have in the garage - hey, finally using that chin up bar I put up a few years ago!
My car, due to lack of driving, died completed. Managed to jump start it yesterday for a quick drive, and hopefully a longer drive today.
The 1st few weeks were rough as it had been more than a decade since working from home. And at one point 75% of the company was going to get furloughed (we design shirts for companies like Disney, Ron Jon, etc. As they shut down, so did orders and revenue). Somehow I was considered an essential employee so was going to stay, but the developers I manage were to get furloughed. So that was really depressing. But then the loan did come through, so we're all still employed, if at a discount rate. Company is doing better - we are the ones designing and making all the Disney masks, and they just ordered 10.2 million. So perhaps I am wondering why I am still at 76% of my normal salary?
And while the lockdown here in NC is slightly reduced for phase 1, so we'll see what happens, my office will probably be working from home through the end of the year.
My son is working at a smoothie place in the mall, wears gloves and a mask, and does a lot of hand washing. But my wife, who survived cancer 3 years ago and has basically no immune system, is staying at her mother's house once my son started working. So that is not a good thing, but I happen to like her alive and at a distance rather than potentially dead and nearby.
So each day, I get up, make something for breakfast (which used to be my favorite meal as I normally go to the gym & have no breakfast, so only having it on the weekends made it special. it is no longer special), then wander down to the basement to work. I do have a office-like space so it is easier to get away, so to speak. Although this is also my mini-painting area so there is some fun stuff on video calls! My son & I do some sort of workout about mid-day, then I work the rest of the day & figure out something for dinner. We watch an episode of something we have on DVD (currently started the 70's Wonder Woman, season 1. Fight choreography has evolved quite a bit but it is a fun show. I killed off cable & TV when my son was little so I would not become one of "those" parents who plop their kid down in front of the TV. Must have worked, Eagle Scout and Dean's List at college for a high GPA). Then I read then go to bed and he plays XBox until something like 2 or 3am while I snore, alone, upstairs.
So far, I've stayed away from junk food and stuff. Dealing with stuff one day at a time, but honestly, other than the lack of a real gym, once I adjusted I am good. Being a developer implies I am not the most social of people to begin with!
Gaming has adjusted - playing via Skype is not the same but better than nothing. While it works for the theater of the mind type of games, I also GM a Fantasy Trip game which is more tactically oriented. So I share my screen with the map and have them tell me where they are. My blog in my sig goes over some of how we've managed so far with that. But I am looking forward to face to face games again! My Sunday group, a father & his two sons, are even more paranoid than my wife I think. His wife works in the health field and they self-quarantined early as she knew the impact. Hopefully we can restart face to face and get to play with all our toys in the next few weeks.
FORTRAN is still alive and well, although perhaps not so much new development going on in it. Because of the way it works, FORTRAN compilers can do certain optimisations that aren't possible with C, so it's still king of the hill in fast number crunching circles. The back-end of pretty much anything that does vector bashing is written in FORTRAN - NumPy, MATLAB and so forth.
My first ever paid programming gig was on FORTRAN, found through student job search - porting a finite element modelling app for heat transfer in steel beams to run on DEC Visual FORTRAN. As it turned out the only changes needed were in the date functions, and writing a makefile.
Micro Focus is doing quite nicely out of keeping folks' old COBOL apps running. Their COBOL system supports about 20 dialects, comes with a CICS emulator and interfaces for Java and .Net (the .Net version can compile down to IL). Just before I left NZ, the company I was working for looked into starting a practice to migrate legacy apps using it.
Condottiere
SOC-14 5K
I suspect there's going to be an uptick in demand for private transportation, though this might benefit Teslaesque manufacturers, with a push to attract customers from the right side of the road.
creativehum
SOC-14 1K
Without doubt. And I would never say otherwise. Testing and tracing doesn't solve the problem. But it does get us one step closer to being able to open the economy effectively -- even if there will have to be new rules and habits.
My point was simply that the plan was never "Shut down the economy and hope for the best." It was "We flatten the curve to get time to take action..." And the actions were not taken.
Timerover51
SOC-14 5K
For Corona Virus Deaths by Country, look here.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/coronavirus/
Take a good look at the deaths per million figure.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/coronavirus/
Take a good look at the deaths per million figure.
