Yes, which is why it’s subsidized and you want a full boat every time. Works much better to not have the mortgage monkey on your back.
Even more so if your line can self finance without loans.
Does the OTU have Cruise Ships?
- Thread starter Spinward Scout
- Start date
Even more so if your line can self finance without loans.
Even looking at it that way, there will be more ‘leftovers’ from higher pop and I postulate higher high passage for rich and more low berth for the poor.
Which also begs the question, what does that look like? I’m guessing those boats take reservations months in advance and most are booked solid, leaving travellers the small ship option for adhoc on demand flight.
The system is missing determination of the available shipping and passenger accommodation from the perspective of the Traveller and shipper. Might be waiting at a Class D for a few weeks…. and tough to book a J4 even at A/B ports.
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Spinward Flow
SOC-14 5K
This is where you need to start paying attention to the MAP and thinking in terms of second order factors, rather than just treating everything as being equal inside of a vacuum when thinking about things from a Tramp Merchant operating perspective.
Let me give you an example.
J1 Free Trader vs J3 Subsidized Liner
Let's say that both ships arrive at the same world and advertise that they're looking passengers and cargo going outbound, but their next destination is going to depend on where the greatest demand for their services is directing them go (supply, meet demand).
So let's imagine that our two competitors are starting at Paya/Aramis/Spinward Marches.
This is what the map of destination opportunities looks like for the J1 Free Trader:
And here's what the map of destination opportunities looks like for the J3 Subsidized Liner:
Going STRICTLY by LBB2.81, p11 (so we're all looking at the same reference source material), here are the yields for the destination opportunities from Paya/Aramis/Spinward Marches (Pop: 2, TL=9) for the two respective ships:
J1 Free Trader:
- Rethe (Pop: A, TL=-1DM): High 1D-1D+3-1 Middle 1D+3-1, Low 2D+3-1, Major 1D-2+1-1, Minor 1D-1+1-1. Incidental Cargo none
- Dhian (Pop: 6, TL=-1DM): High 1D-1D+0-6-1 Middle 1D+0-6-1, Low 2D+0-6-1, Major none, Minor 1D-1-1. Incidental none
Compare that to the alternative.
J3 Subsidized Liner:
- Wochiers (Pop: 8: TL=0DM): High 1D-1D+3-6+0 Middle 1D+3-6+0, Low 2D+3-6+0, Major none, Minor 1D-1+1+0. Incidental Cargo none
- Algine (Pop: 9: TL=-5DM): High 1D-1D-12-5 Middle none, Low none, Major none, Minor none. Incidental Cargo none
- Yurst (Pop: 6: TL=-1DM): High 1D-1D+0-1 Middle 1D+0-1, Low 2D+0-1, Major 1D-2+0-1, Minor 1D-1+0-1. Incidental Cargo none
- Treece (Pop: 8: TL=-1DM): High 1D-1D+3-1 Middle 1D+3-1, Low 2D+3-1, Major 1D-2+1-1, Minor 1D-1+1-1. Incidental Cargo none
- Moughas (Pop: 5: TL=+2DM): High 1D-1D+0+2 Middle 1D+0+2, Low 2D+0+2, Major 1D-2+0+2, Minor 1D-1+0+2. Incidental Cargo none
- Rethe (Pop: A: TL=0DM): High 1D-1D+3+0 Middle 1D+3+0, Low 2D+3+0, Major 1D-2+1+0, Minor 1D-1+1+0. Incidental Cargo none
- Inthe (Pop: 7: TL=0DM): High 1D-1D+0+0 Middle 1D+0+0, Low 2D+0+0, Major 1D-2+0+0, Minor 1D-1+0+0. Incidental Cargo none
- Keanou (Pop: 3: TL=-2DM): High 1D-1D-3-2 Middle 1D-3-2, Low 2D-3-2, Major 1D-2-4-2, Minor 1D-1-4-2. Incidental Cargo none
- Dhian (Pop: 6, TL=-1DM): High 1D-1D+0-1 Middle 1D+0-1, Low 2D+0-1, Major none, Minor 1D-1+0-1. Incidental none
- Kinorb (Pop: 4: TL=0DM): High 1D-1D-3+0 Middle 1D-3+0, Low 2D-3+0, Major 1D-2-4+0, Minor 1D-1-4+0. Incidental Cargo none
- Focaline (Pop: 5: TL=-2DM): High 1D-1D+0-2 Middle 1D+0-2, Low 2D+0-2, Major 1D-2+0-2, Minor 1D-1+0-2. Incidental Cargo none
- Violante (Pop: 4: TL=+1DM): High 1D-1D-3+1 Middle 1D-3+1, Low 2D-3+1, Major 1D-2-4+1, Minor 1D-1-4+1. Incidental Cargo none
).However, there are multiple Population: 7+ worlds to choose from as possible destinations (Wochiers, Algine, Treece, Rethe, Inthe), although Wochiers (Amber) and Algine (Red) are unlikely to be preferred destinations, due to -DM modifiers to number of passengers and availability of cargoes.
Once again, Rethe is the most likely destination before throwing dice, but it's also perfectly possible for Rethe to not be the best option.
When you look at the yields for passengers and cargo, Treece, Rethe and Inthe are all really close to each other for possible quantities of pending passengers and cargo. As a captain, you'll want to "roll the dice" on everything before deciding, since rolls for Rethe could be low and rolls for Treece and Inthe could be higher. In other words, you need to check the demand going everywhere before you can determine which is the best next destination to choose between the 3 most populous options of where to go. If none of those yield particularly satisfying results, you have the option to start scanning down the list for other possibilities.
Complicating that decision of where to go next is the opportunity for Speculative Goods. If you're able to score a "good deal" on speculative goods that are most likely to sell high in a specific trade code market, you may want to bias your choice of where to go next so as to move your starship either to such a destination directly or put yourself into position to reach such a destination 1 jump later. So depending on the Speculative Goods opportunities for arbitrage (which is where the REAL money is to be made!) having a longer jump range makes it both easier and quicker to reach those buy low/sell high market opportunities in less time (and therefore, greater profit margins when playing with your own money!).
This is why I say that in the J1/J2 range, as an operator you're going to be more dependent on passenger and freight tickets in order to make your overhead expenses in order to just stay afloat (let alone turn a profit). Once you step up into the J3+ range, however, your "reach" between markets giving you greater scope for arbitrage in speculative goods becomes MUCH MUCH GREATER. Once you're working in the J3+ regime, the whole profitability game CHANGES ... because now you're dabbling in passenger and freight tickets to mitigate your losses and defray overhead expenses, while cruising around seeking out speculative goods opportunities as your primary means to profit.
J1/J2 = passengers and freight are your primary business, with speculation on the side
J3+ = speculation is your primary business, with passengers and freight on the side
J3+ lets you "get away with" speculative goods plays that otherwise simply wouldn't be possible (or happen often enough) while trading in the J1/J2 regime. Needless to say, relying on speculation for profits is inherently riskier (and requires deeper pockets!), but having a J3+ starship to move speculative cargoes around RAPIDLY in effect "stacks the deck" in your favor (as an operator) in ways that a difficult to quantify on spreadsheet analyses done in a vacuum.
In other words, take my word for it (I've tested the proposition already, hence my interest in designing merchant clipper ships).
This is why finding a region of space with LOTS of different trade codes within relatively reasonable distances from each other can be such a JACKPOT score for a J3+ clipper ship, while at the same time being more difficult for a J1/J2 tramp ship to take advantage of. When all the trade codes of worlds in a subsector are "substantially the same" (such as in the Aramis subsector of the Spinward Marches), that limits the opportunities for arbitrage in speculative goods (doesn't stop it, but it doesn't happen as often/as advantageously). However, in a location with lots of different trade codes all over the place, such as District 268, such opportunities abound ... and having a long jump range to make arbitrage in speculative goods happen faster and more reliably is both a better and often quicker path to achieving tremendous profits.
"You see, there are millions upon millions of worlds in the universe. Each one filled with too much of one thing and not enough of another. And the Great Continuum flows through them all like a mighty river, from have to want and back again. And if we navigate the continuum with skill and grace, our ship will be filled with everything our hearts desire!"
"Right now I'd settle for a stabilizer and a captain's desk."
"The river will provide."
"Hngh. If it doesn't sink us first."
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Though I can see a game where the players are the crew of a large liner.
Ok, I have put a fair amount of time in to the Liner Trade in the past year.
A "Cruise" ship is going to be on a route between two high volume destinations. Kinda like the Liners of the late sail to early steam eras. Honestly the Titanic and the like are examples from the later era, but eventually the same model. In that you are going somewhere in Style.
In the OTU there will probably little Travel for just the sake of being on a ship going somewhere and coming back.
A "Cruise" ship is going to be on a route between two high volume destinations. Kinda like the Liners of the late sail to early steam eras. Honestly the Titanic and the like are examples from the later era, but eventually the same model. In that you are going somewhere in Style.
In the OTU there will probably little Travel for just the sake of being on a ship going somewhere and coming back.
Spinward Flow
SOC-14 5K
Here's a fun corollary to this notion, that makes sense when you think about it.
If the business model for your merchant ship relies primarily on passengers and freight tickets (J1/J2), you're going to need to avoid low population mainworlds as well as Amber and Red Zone star systems. Why? Because low population worlds will have a scarcity of outbound passengers and freight. In a LBB2 "small ship universe" this means that starships oriented around passengers and freight tickets as their main revenue source (with speculative goods on the side) will "need" to avoid the Population: 4- worlds and prioritizing Population: 5+ (and more to the point, 8+) wherever possible.
The "penalty" for not respecting this low population factor ... is measurably moving towards bankruptcy as a result of operational choices, due to limitations on demand for passenger and freight tickets resulting empty manifests. Staterooms without passengers generate no revenue while operational expenses persist. Cargo holds without cargo generate no revenue while operational expenses persist.
There is a very curious thing that happens if you "lower your expectations" for passengers and freight tickets, where instead of trying to scare up 8 passengers (because you've got a steward) every single time, having capacity for only 2-4 passengers instead means that your ship can "afford" to visit low population (Pop: 4-) and if you can't fill all of your passenger staterooms you're "losing less" than if you had 8 passenger staterooms. At the same time, you want to have something in the range of 40-60 tons of cargo capacity, which you're very likely to be able to secure tickets for if you can't find any speculative goods at a price you want to buy. So if your passenger/cargo capacity is "right sized for low end markets" you can actually turn Population: 4- Non-industrial worlds as opportunity markets rather than a no go zone that costs more than its worth to choose as a destination.
And ironically as it turns out ... as drive power increases, tonnage available for generating revenue decreases ... and there's this really peculiar confluence point where you can have a J3 clipper ship design that has SOME revenue tonnage capacity adequate for most speculative goods lots, but not too much that will be a challenge to fill up in low end markets.
You then have something of a "lean" starship design that can venture into low population world markets without expecting to take a massive haircut on their profit margins.
You can then take that "small capacity, but enough to be useful, in a fast mover" factor that's really good for a tramp operator ... and get a subsidy serving a collection of worlds with a diversity of trade codes, but limit the number of Non-industrial worlds (except where necessary) along the subsidy route. But when you do that, there are still going to be plenty of Non-industrial worlds almost everywhere you go (they're not exactly scarce) so you can use your "30% per year off subsidy route" to visit nearby Non-industrial destinations whenever it is advantageous for you to do so.
And sure enough, District 268 is almost ideal for this kind of diversity of trade codes scattered around can be found ... and with more range in your jump drive you "have to" visit fewer and fewer low population markets, but can still profit from visiting them with speculative goods ... which the wide variety of trade codes and rapid mobility between them makes more likely to happen.
And then down in the sub-200 ton starship realm, there is the "cargo+xmail only delivery van" really low end business model that can reliably generate profits just from delivering mail alone, with the freight tickets just being "bonus" money with the cargo capacity basically there for sniping opportunities on speculative goods. With that business model, if you can make a profit on mail deliveries alone, you can visit Population: 0 mainworlds and STILL not lose money on the trip.
mike wightman
SOC-14 10K
Well put.
Free Traders should stick to worlds where they can make a profit until they can afford speculative trade.
Ideally look for three worlds in a jump 1 triangle such as Jewel-Ruby-Emerald.
Once you can afford speculative trade pay off your free trader and build a Far Trader.
The Far Trader has more destinations available to sell the speculative trade.
Once the Far Trader is paid off or you have enough banked get a jump 3 to concentrate on speculative trade.
Hire crews for the ships you have moved on from or sell them for more speculative potential.
Free Traders should stick to worlds where they can make a profit until they can afford speculative trade.
Ideally look for three worlds in a jump 1 triangle such as Jewel-Ruby-Emerald.
Once you can afford speculative trade pay off your free trader and build a Far Trader.
The Far Trader has more destinations available to sell the speculative trade.
Once the Far Trader is paid off or you have enough banked get a jump 3 to concentrate on speculative trade.
Hire crews for the ships you have moved on from or sell them for more speculative potential.
The Oz
SOC-14 1K
I ran a game where the PCs were the junior officers aboard a 60 kton liner (yes, a former AHL). Again, the ship was a setting; the adventures were catching smugglers, solving murders, stopping thieves, etc.
Spinward Flow
SOC-14 5K
Exactly.
Although the "rules" of the Small Ship Universe stay the same ... how you play the merchant trader game CHANGES as drive power and jump range increases.
You play checkers and chess on the same game board, but the pieces you use and the moves they make are very different because you're playing different games with different capabilities on the exact same playing field.
In other words, the J1/J2 traders are focusing on different business model advantages than the J3+ traders do. They aren't playing the same tramp trading game (because they can't, their "game pieces" can't make the same "moves" around the playing field).
This is why trying to make 1:1 comparisons in the revenue potential of J1/J2/J3 starships on a single spreadsheet criteria (passenger and freight tickets) is something of a Fool's Errand. It's an attempt at oversimplification into a One Size Fits All mentality, when the different categories of starships are actually best utilized serving different markets and different routes, with different business imperatives and different goals in order to achieve success.
J1 traders are CAPABLE of navigating to low population (4-) worlds, but are very likely to operate at a loss when doing so. The demands of profitability therefore mandate that such destinations are to be avoided in favor of more lucrative opportunities. Along J1 mains of consecutive star systems, this means that there are going to be "profit dead zones" that Free Traders have an economic incentive to AVOID rather than service.
J2 traders are likewise CAPABLE of navigating to low population (4-) worlds, are also very likely to operate at a loss when doing so (just like the J1 traders), but because of their increased jump range can potentially "skip over" such worlds (or empty hexes on the map!) in order to bypass them and reach more lucrative market opportunities (on the other side). The "tramp trading game" CHANGES due to the increased freedom of navigation offered by the increase in jump range. J2 is when it starts becoming reasonable to start expecting a greater share of profit margins to come from speculative goods arbitrage, because as an operator you are no longer limited to ONLY adjacent star systems 1 parsec away as your list of available destinations. However, you are still heavily dependent on passenger and freight tickets for the bulk of your revenue stream while searching for speculative goods opportunities which will typically mean wanting to stay away from low population (4-) worlds whenever possible.
J3 traders are also CAPABLE of navigating to low population (4-) worlds, but will typically only do so if they have a speculative goods cargo to sell at an arbitrage advantage for profit. With greater range capacity on every jump, J3 clipper ships have the comparative "luxury" of having a wider selection of next destinations to travel to and are therefore the least constrained by sequences of low population (4-) world markets (except when there are 3+ of them in a row along a J1 main of star systems). This increased range capacity means that the J3 trader can "cherry pick" only the most lucrative markets to visit next with a flexibility that is the envy of their J1/J2 competitors, resulting in a wider range of possible astrogation moves leading to a more "reliable" mix of opportunities to take advantage of for profit.
All three merchant types (J1/J2/J3) CAN GO to low population (4-) worlds ... but tramp traders don't have to go if they don't want to (and the profit motive is a powerful incentive not to!), creating "mercantile barriers" to navigating to such destinations which result in "interstellar trade deserts" in certain regions. For J1 traders, these profit margin barriers can potentially be insurmountable, even if the starship is perfectly capable (by engineering) of going there, forcing operators to avoid such destinations. For J2 traders, the profit margin barriers remain, but with J2 range such destinations can potentially be avoided (except when they can't on jump through routes). For J3 traders, however, low population (4-) worlds become almost entirely optional as destinations (except, once again, when they can't on jump through routes).
Same "rules" apply to each category of merchant starship ... but the strategies and business model for each category of starship CHANGES as drive power and jump range increases, because the "moves" they make around the map changes.
Same "rules" ... different way to play a different game.
One subtlety that is overlooked was the original 77 merchant dev game.
Had to use trade route jump tapes until enough money was saved to buy generate program.
Trade routes tended to go to better trade planets, but the encounter system tended to create more pirate encounters, benefit of better money offset by more risk.
So you risked those first trips, got the generate program and went scraping by on low margin low pop planets until you built up the millions for a proper weapons fit.
Later versions scrapped the trade route gen and reversed the encounters to fit with a more simulationist approach of major ports deter pirates. This made the milk run between major planets the desirable guaranteed run.
Had to use trade route jump tapes until enough money was saved to buy generate program.
Trade routes tended to go to better trade planets, but the encounter system tended to create more pirate encounters, benefit of better money offset by more risk.
So you risked those first trips, got the generate program and went scraping by on low margin low pop planets until you built up the millions for a proper weapons fit.
Later versions scrapped the trade route gen and reversed the encounters to fit with a more simulationist approach of major ports deter pirates. This made the milk run between major planets the desirable guaranteed run.
Condottiere
SOC-14 5K
Low volume, high value merchandise.
Pharmaceuticals and iPhones.
Pharmaceuticals and iPhones.
But without any provision for how market saturation would make the milk runs self-correcting. Yeah, at a couple of hundred Td at a time, tops, it's not going to happen quickly. But then, the trade mini-game is supposed to be (or was retconned into being) what's left over after the major players move everything they can, so market saturation kicks in faster.
Market saturation makes sense for say Pop 6-. Above that, nawwww.
Another outcome possible was selling some speculation to a planet that should not want it, like low pop or mismatched TL. My take is that the market may not be the planet at all, but another speculator just storing the cargo until it can be forwarded to a better market- or even another ship.
Yes, and no.
Yes, because spec trade is big money.
No, because spec trade using someone else's ship is also big money -- big enough to cover the hauler's costs and still clear a decent profit.
In general, higher-Jn ships will be dedicated to specific world-pairs. They'll be either subsidized or run at charter rates that cover operating costs.
ETA: It'll be difficult to finance a ship that needs to rely on spec trading to turn a profit. Need a long track record or cash up front. This means used ones will be hard to find, and/or worn out.
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Spinward Flow
SOC-14 5K
While both statements ARE TRUE in isolation, context makes all the difference here.
Yes, you can transport speculative goods on someone else's ship (just pay for freight tickets), the reliability of such an option for an independent trader amounts to hitchhiking (just stick out your thumb!).
Yes it can be done, with enough patience ... but you're at the mercy of whatever interstellar traffic is passing through the system. For highly populated worlds, there will often time be sufficient traffic to make this work ... but that won't always be the case. You can in fact potentially get "stranded" at a low population world that is rarely visited by interstellar merchants (a different sort of "marooned" type of circumstance).
Hiring 3rd parties to transport your goods is DOABLE ... but it isn't necessarily RELIABLE in the same way that it would be for a starship operator who can control their destiny (in terms of timing and where to go next).
Speculative trading CAN be big money, but it's also a "feast or famine" type of business because you're trying to "surf the waves" of arbitrage to your own advantage ... and the opportunities to do so are not going to be happening reliably/like clockwork. Having access to a wider range of destinations (3+ parsecs vs 2 parsecs or just 1) has a kind of "stack the deck (more) in your favor" effect on your opportunities for favorable arbitrage, but it won't guarantee such outcomes.
I'm going to have to dispute this notion, mainly because it's overly simplistic and eliminates too many opportunities.
The way I see it, there's going to be a VARIETY of subsidized operations, rather than just a single type.
- When you have high population worlds adjacent/nearby to each other (Pop: 8+ each), it makes sense to have a 2 world subsidy and rake in the profits on short haul tickets between those two worlds. This can also be the case for fuel procurement operations that "need" to jump to a nearby star system in order to obtain L-Hyd fuel resources for star systems lacking in both water oceans and gas giants (in which case, passengers and freight are beside the point because full time charters for transport of fuel capacity is the mission).
- Some worlds are going to be more interested in expanding their sphere of influence to a collection of (nearby?) worlds, not just 1. This can take the form of creating trade dependencies on the subsidizing world in order to create a "first among equals" hegemony over neighboring star systems. This can take the form of a hub and spoke/point to point type of arrangement "centered" around the subsidizing world. Such a subsidy arrangement can involve things like the movement of raw materials and agricultural products "in" to an industrialized world, followed by the movement of finished goods "out" to less developed worlds and star systems within the subsidy remit.
- Some routes are going to be more along the lines of "vital lines" between major population centers/subsector capitals, such as Iderati/Five Sisters to Glisten/Glisten, for example. These will tend towards being "shuttle runs" between the two end points of the route, preferably with some favorable "pit stop" opportunities along the way.
- Some routes can be "circuits" that loop around on a route, always returning to the subsidizing world. The operational idea here is to migrate around the chain of star systems that doesn't need to reverse course in order to return to the starting point.
It's an inherently risky proposition because speculative trading is, in effect, "gambling with your own money" (so to speak), so you're going to need to have deep pockets from the beginning just in order to ante up when opportunities present themselves. Best to have funding reserves so as to cover the times when there is nothing to buy at favorable prices ... and to cover any losses that you might incur along the way.
Plus, bank financing is "expensive" no matter what you do. Having a longer jump range is more expensive to finance, but that longer range increases the rate of chances to "get lucky" on speculation with a windfall ... so "in for a penny, in for a pound."
The trick is to "right size" the revenue tonnage capacity of your starship such that you spend most of your jumps with a full manifest where every stateroom is booked and your cargo hold is full. If you have a huge capacity for both, your destinations will skew towards the most highly populated worlds (because that's where the volume is). Designing a starship that deliberately has a "small but still useful" capacity passengers and cargo makes it possible to visit low population worlds (that everyone else shuns!) and still make a profit, allowing your ship to compete (and possibly even monopolize!) transport to backwater systems where other merchants prefer not to go. There's an evolutionary niche role andvantage in being able to service the needs of worlds that your competitors prefer to steer clear of (because it's not profitable for them). The trick is ... being able to build a starship class that can take advantage of such "austere and lean" markets to be found on low population backwater worlds.
After all ... when everyone else leaves, that makes it that much easier for you to corner whatever market there is to be had and keep it all to yourself.
Competition-B-Gone!
Just to reiterate (and clarify) my point: Higher Jn ships (I'm not getting into variable-tonnage ships here, which I think is central to your point) are more expensive to run on a payload-ton basis. It's always cheaper to run a ship of the minimum-required Jn on a given trip (I think Z Drives are always cheapest though, but I'd have to find that spreadsheet). The highest-Jn ships will be kept to the links where they're essential, and fed by shorter-ranged ships along the remainder of the route. (This is how normal shipping lines would work, and where the used-up ones that hit the market originate.)While both statements ARE TRUE in isolation, context makes all the difference here.
Yes, you can transport speculative goods on someone else's ship (just pay for freight tickets), the reliability of such an option for an independent trader amounts to hitchhiking (just stick out your thumb!).
Yes it can be done, with enough patience ... but you're at the mercy of whatever interstellar traffic is passing through the system. For highly populated worlds, there will often time be sufficient traffic to make this work ... but that won't always be the case. You can in fact potentially get "stranded" at a low population world that is rarely visited by interstellar merchants (a different sort of "marooned" type of circumstance).
Hiring 3rd parties to transport your goods is DOABLE ... but it isn't necessarily RELIABLE in the same way that it would be for a starship operator who can control their destiny (in terms of timing and where to go next).
Speculative trading CAN be big money, but it's also a "feast or famine" type of business because you're trying to "surf the waves" of arbitrage to your own advantage ... and the opportunities to do so are not going to be happening reliably/like clockwork. Having access to a wider range of destinations (3+ parsecs vs 2 parsecs or just 1) has a kind of "stack the deck (more) in your favor" effect on your opportunities for favorable arbitrage, but it won't guarantee such outcomes.
I'm going to have to dispute this notion, mainly because it's overly simplistic and eliminates too many opportunities.
The way I see it, there's going to be a VARIETY of subsidized operations, rather than just a single type.
In other words, there's more than just one step to the dance of subsidization.
- When you have high population worlds adjacent/nearby to each other (Pop: 8+ each), it makes sense to have a 2 world subsidy and rake in the profits on short haul tickets between those two worlds. This can also be the case for fuel procurement operations that "need" to jump to a nearby star system in order to obtain L-Hyd fuel resources for star systems lacking in both water oceans and gas giants (in which case, passengers and freight are beside the point because full time charters for transport of fuel capacity is the mission).
- Some worlds are going to be more interested in expanding their sphere of influence to a collection of (nearby?) worlds, not just 1. This can take the form of creating trade dependencies on the subsidizing world in order to create a "first among equals" hegemony over neighboring star systems. This can take the form of a hub and spoke/point to point type of arrangement "centered" around the subsidizing world. Such a subsidy arrangement can involve things like the movement of raw materials and agricultural products "in" to an industrialized world, followed by the movement of finished goods "out" to less developed worlds and star systems within the subsidy remit.
- Some routes are going to be more along the lines of "vital lines" between major population centers/subsector capitals, such as Iderati/Five Sisters to Glisten/Glisten, for example. These will tend towards being "shuttle runs" between the two end points of the route, preferably with some favorable "pit stop" opportunities along the way.
- Some routes can be "circuits" that loop around on a route, always returning to the subsidizing world. The operational idea here is to migrate around the chain of star systems that doesn't need to reverse course in order to return to the starting point.
It's an inherently risky proposition because speculative trading is, in effect, "gambling with your own money" (so to speak), so you're going to need to have deep pockets from the beginning just in order to ante up when opportunities present themselves. Best to have funding reserves so as to cover the times when there is nothing to buy at favorable prices ... and to cover any losses that you might incur along the way.
Plus, bank financing is "expensive" no matter what you do. Having a longer jump range is more expensive to finance, but that longer range increases the rate of chances to "get lucky" on speculation with a windfall ... so "in for a penny, in for a pound."
The trick is to "right size" the revenue tonnage capacity of your starship such that you spend most of your jumps with a full manifest where every stateroom is booked and your cargo hold is full. If you have a huge capacity for both, your destinations will skew towards the most highly populated worlds (because that's where the volume is). Designing a starship that deliberately has a "small but still useful" capacity passengers and cargo makes it possible to visit low population worlds (that everyone else shuns!) and still make a profit, allowing your ship to compete (and possibly even monopolize!) transport to backwater systems where other merchants prefer not to go. There's an evolutionary niche role andvantage in being able to service the needs of worlds that your competitors prefer to steer clear of (because it's not profitable for them). The trick is ... being able to build a starship class that can take advantage of such "austere and lean" markets to be found on low population backwater worlds.
After all ... when everyone else leaves, that makes it that much easier for you to corner whatever market there is to be had and keep it all to yourself.
Competition-B-Gone!
Spec trading is risky enough that, as noted, you're going to have to prove to the bank that you can make a go of it (needs a high relevant skill, implying experience/talent, plus a suitably large bankroll) before they'll even consider forking over the money. Doesn't happen often. Maybe there are a lot of folks out there who can just buy for cash?
Timerover51
SOC-14 5K
That is a pretty good description of a cruise ship. My father-in-law described it as a tour when you bring your hotel with you. The ship itself has various amenities to attract you to a specific ship, while the main focus for most people is the itinerary. That is a big factor in choosing a ship for me and my wife. First, where does it go? Then, what does it have on it? Where does it start and end? On a trip through the Panama Canal, you typically start in either a Florida port and end in Los Angeles, or do the reverse. If you are on a repositioning cruise, you spend 5 to 6 days at sea, and the visit a couple of ports prior to the new starting point. If you spend the money, you can do the repositioning cruise and the first cruise from the new port. You do have to fly home from the new port, unless you have a LOT of money, and can spend your summer or winter on the ship.
Basically, you are back to the era of the large ocean liners, prior to air travel. They moved people from one continent to another, with the speed difference being reflected in the Jump Capacity of the ship.
Spinward Flow
SOC-14 5K
Yes ... and no ... on the variable tonnage/modular approach (via external towing capacity) in starship design that I've been researching for the past year or so.
In comparison terms, yes ... a "variable tonnage starship" (I like that term!) is going to be more expensive to construct and buy than a "fixed tonnage starship" will ... partially because you're buying more than one hull and potentially more than one set of drives and one computer (and so on and so forth). That gets expensive in a hurry.
However, that's when you're doing a 1:1 "ton for ton" comparison, LIMITING the "variable tonnage starship" to only a single configuration. One of those "tie one hand behind your back because your opponent only has one arm" kinds of deals.
The more fulsome answer is ... no ... because the "variable tonnage ship" can TRADE drive performance for an increased load capacity when needed and advantageous to do so (assuming sufficient demand for service to fill the increased supply).
So let me give you an example of how my thinking on this question works.
Let's say you want to compare a J2 Far Trader with my currently pending J3 SIE Clipper that I'm hoping to finalize and post this coming week (sometime).
- 200 ton J2/1G Far Trader = MCr59.56 (unarmed), 3 crew, 6 high passengers, 4 low passengers, 61 tons cargo
- 332 ton J3/3G SIE Clipper = MCrCr194.2048 (stock, complete), 6 crew, 3 high passengers, 0 low passengers, 36 tons cargo
- 3x (200 ton J2/1G Far Trader) = 3x (MCr59.56 (unarmed), 3 crew, 7 high passengers, 4 low passengers, 61 tons cargo)
= MCr178.68, 9 crew, 21 high passengers, 12 low passengers, 183 tons cargo ... no fuel purification, pay full life support cost - 3x 100% manifest ticket revenue = 210,000+12,000+183,000 = Cr405,000 * 2 = Cr810,000 per month
- Recurring monthly overhead expenses = 3x(17,200 crew salary) + 3x(40,000+800 life support) + 3x (200 berthing fees) = Cr174,600
- Net revenue before paying for fuel: Cr635,400
Now look at what happens with my SIE Clipper build, where transporting third party freight externally (at 90% charter price, rather than 100% owned cargo capacity price) in easily obtained 12 ton Cargo Boxes pushes things:
- 332 ton + 168 tons external load J2/2G SIE Clipper = MCrCr194.2048 (stock, complete), 6 crew, 3 high passengers, 0 low passengers, 36 tons owned cargo capacity, 96 ton hangar bay, 72 tons external third party cargo ... fuel purification plant, regenerative biome life support
- 100% manifest ticket revenue = 30,000+36,000+96,000+(72,000*0.9) = Cr226,800 * 2 = Cr453,600 per month
- Recurring monthly overhead expenses = (31,150 crew salary) + (0 life support) + (200 berthing fees) = Cr31,350
- Net revenue with wilderness refueling: Cr422,250 per month on 100% manifests
And that's when comparing an UNarmed 1G merchant ship with no fuel purification that needs to stick to type A/B starports ONLY or risk being forced to surrender by pirates or misjumping EVERY YEAR ... versus a (in this comparison) 2G merchant ship with onboard fuel purification that is "armed" with a 5G Laser Fighter (with Emergency Agility=6 capability) mounting a pulse laser, 2 sandcasters and a model/4 computer that can drive off pirate attacks rather reliably.
Add just ONE Gunner (for a single turret) on each of the three Far Traders ... and that profit advantage of Cr63,150 per month shrinks down to Cr150 per month due to a reduction in high passenger tickets and an increase in crew salaries ... which is a mere Cr50 per Far Trader per month, relative to what the SIE Clipper "armed with a Laser Fighter" can do.
- Against hostile adversaries, those three Far Traders are still Agility=0-1 with model/1bis computer gunnery practice targets.
- The SIE Clipper with Agility=2 is very likely to break off by acceleration from the Reserve (+2 Agility) while the Laser Fighter engages (starting at long range) from the Front Line using Agility=5, a model/4 computer, a pulse laser and 2 sandcasters.
Go on.
I'll wait.
Condottiere
SOC-14 5K
You want to be truly speculative, start a hedge fund with proceeds from selling your starship.
Recruit one or more people with requisite psionic skills.
If you want to cheat, bribe politicians, possibly sabotage your target market, or send mercenaries to disrupt production and trade flows.
Recruit one or more people with requisite psionic skills.
If you want to cheat, bribe politicians, possibly sabotage your target market, or send mercenaries to disrupt production and trade flows.
Ok sports fans, I have been working on what I am now referring to he J3 model.
In which I am looking at how ships operate with a jump 3 drive. And well j4 works within this model as well.
Which really be comes a exploration of the liner trade, in that liner meaning ships the operate on regular routes. Traditionally the terminals of a ship on a line tend to aggregate freight for movement on said line. Note intervening stops on a route also can have cargo booked for but the prices with be in line for the entire trip. (Note Traveller stipulates that cargo and passage is per destination not per jump)
Now couple this with the Trade routes rules that included in T5 (though the '77 edition rules work along similar lines as well) in the Main Trade routes are between "Important" worlds i.e. using the world importance rating. Note following one then subsidiary routes will trend on individual "important" worlds from lesser worlds.
With all this the regular lines locally will use lower performance ships in local trade. Considering the subsidized trader rules you start to see the flow of trade.
Now then there is the Tramp trade which runs on the spot market of when a ship arrives at a port. Which different from the Liner trade as it takes up cargos that have yet to be taken up by which ever line that might serve that port, or excess. Then there is speculative trade.
The issue is the rules are focused on the tramp trade which is a different model than the Liner trade.
In which I am looking at how ships operate with a jump 3 drive. And well j4 works within this model as well.
Which really be comes a exploration of the liner trade, in that liner meaning ships the operate on regular routes. Traditionally the terminals of a ship on a line tend to aggregate freight for movement on said line. Note intervening stops on a route also can have cargo booked for but the prices with be in line for the entire trip. (Note Traveller stipulates that cargo and passage is per destination not per jump)
Now couple this with the Trade routes rules that included in T5 (though the '77 edition rules work along similar lines as well) in the Main Trade routes are between "Important" worlds i.e. using the world importance rating. Note following one then subsidiary routes will trend on individual "important" worlds from lesser worlds.
With all this the regular lines locally will use lower performance ships in local trade. Considering the subsidized trader rules you start to see the flow of trade.
Now then there is the Tramp trade which runs on the spot market of when a ship arrives at a port. Which different from the Liner trade as it takes up cargos that have yet to be taken up by which ever line that might serve that port, or excess. Then there is speculative trade.
The issue is the rules are focused on the tramp trade which is a different model than the Liner trade.