mike wightman
SOC-14 10K
Hmm, so a lucky four term pirate could sell his ship and buy a brand new free trader - for cash 
And still have money left for speculative trade...
And still have money left for speculative trade...
Fixing Book 2 Starship Economics
- Thread starter tbeard1999
- Start date
A pure Bk2 universe operate on Speculation as the primary mode, not haulage.
Since you can readily get an average rate in excess of 3K/Td, you can make far more by speculation than hauling in the same space.
Further, with a single good spec run per year, worth MCr5+, and using broker 3's, and a net 3-6 point difference from trade codes, one can make the annual expenses on the trip; there is a 1*3/(6^6) chance of loss on a broker 3 transaction with a 3 point spread on trade code mods. If you can push to a broker 4 on both ends, you have a 1/(6^6) of a "Breakeven" (which is still a loss due to brokerage fees), no chance of loss of cargo value, and are likely to make a more than 100% profit.
Further, the prices will be set based upon paid off vessels since payoff is less than half the expected life of the vessel. Lines will amortize over the 70-100 year lifespan of the vessels, not the forty years of payments. One good whack of computers will pay off a Type A or even A2 (buy 5-6 tons at MCr3/T, sell at MCr40/T... MCr30/T after brokerage, and that's up to 150 MCr.
BTW, alternate (and mathematically equivalent) formula for payments: 40 years monthly payments of 1/192 of financed amount, rather than 1/240 of value.
Last Bk2 group I had got a lucky break, just that set of mods on computers, turned over their Type R, and bought a new one cash in full.
In fact, I've never had a Bk2 nor T20 merchant NOT pay off due to a few good spec runs unless they were destroyed. But you really need the best broker you can find, and under Bk2, need to follow the spec, not a fixed route, so as to leverage the markets.
Since you can readily get an average rate in excess of 3K/Td, you can make far more by speculation than hauling in the same space.
Further, with a single good spec run per year, worth MCr5+, and using broker 3's, and a net 3-6 point difference from trade codes, one can make the annual expenses on the trip; there is a 1*3/(6^6) chance of loss on a broker 3 transaction with a 3 point spread on trade code mods. If you can push to a broker 4 on both ends, you have a 1/(6^6) of a "Breakeven" (which is still a loss due to brokerage fees), no chance of loss of cargo value, and are likely to make a more than 100% profit.
Further, the prices will be set based upon paid off vessels since payoff is less than half the expected life of the vessel. Lines will amortize over the 70-100 year lifespan of the vessels, not the forty years of payments. One good whack of computers will pay off a Type A or even A2 (buy 5-6 tons at MCr3/T, sell at MCr40/T... MCr30/T after brokerage, and that's up to 150 MCr.
BTW, alternate (and mathematically equivalent) formula for payments: 40 years monthly payments of 1/192 of financed amount, rather than 1/240 of value.
Last Bk2 group I had got a lucky break, just that set of mods on computers, turned over their Type R, and bought a new one cash in full.
In fact, I've never had a Bk2 nor T20 merchant NOT pay off due to a few good spec runs unless they were destroyed. But you really need the best broker you can find, and under Bk2, need to follow the spec, not a fixed route, so as to leverage the markets.
Fritz_Brown
Super Moderator
tbeard, you missed the bit, though about the muster giving possession v ownership for most of the ships. Plus, I would love to see the pirate try to sell his ship and buy a trader - after all, he has been a pirate for a while, and he might have a hard time going down to Little Joe's Ship Sales and taking one for a test drive.
(Of course, why would he buy a new one when he can just capture one?) (And, I like your "pirate banking scheme"....)
You also neglect to mention if you simply allow all the rolls with the +1 from rank. That makes a big difference (makes a difference with that Gambling bonus on the cash tables, too).
You also neglect to mention if you simply allow all the rolls with the +1 from rank. That makes a big difference (makes a difference with that Gambling bonus on the cash tables, too).
far-trader
SOC-14 10K
"Arrr matey, an ain't tha wha all pierats aspire to."Originally posted by Sigg Oddra:
Hmm, so a lucky four term pirate could sell his ship and buy a brand new free trader - for cash
And still have money left for speculative trade...
It is silly I think, on many many levels. From the design of the ship to the suggestion that it could be sold. In my opinion it'd be a silly ref who allowed that, without it biting the character in the ass.
Any character generated as a Pirate should have a bounty on thier hide in several systems or whole polities to start with, dead or alive if they are actually the Captain (i.e. mustered as such by virtue of the ship roll). Never mind having to be constantly on the watch for their backstabbing crewmates looking for a chance to make Captain and muster out with their own, slightly bloodier, Corsair
Fritz_Brown
Super Moderator
That's why I came up with a detailed background (including hiding his identity) for my Pirate turned legit cargo-haulin' minor (very) nobleman. You will see him in the Patron Encounters in Flynn's Stellar Reaches #3.
far-trader
SOC-14 10K
I still need to find time to read SR#3 but it sounds like a good show Fritz88. Especially if you're saying you made a Pirate into an Ethical Patron! Nice twist of thinking there!
mike wightman
SOC-14 10K
I can't help but think of the Dread Pirate Roberts...
hmm, Westley Roberts, proud owner of a brand new free trader...
hmm, Westley Roberts, proud owner of a brand new free trader...
far-trader
SOC-14 10K
That would be a good plot to throw into a game Sigg
tbeard1999
SOC-14 1K
Well, COTI p.14 states "A variety of starships may be received as *benefits*...", and then proceeds to list the various ships. The most reasonable reading of this that I could see was that the person owns the ship. And note that page 15 flatly states that the Corsair could "probably bring about one-quarter its [MCr180] value..."Originally posted by Fritz88:
tbeard, you missed the bit, though about the muster giving possession v ownership for most of the ships. Plus, I would love to see the pirate try to sell his ship and buy a trader - after all, he has been a pirate for a while, and he might have a hard time going down to Little Joe's Ship Sales and taking one for a test drive.(Of course, why would he buy a new one when he can just capture one?) (And, I like your "pirate banking scheme"....)
You also neglect to mention if you simply allow all the rolls with the +1 from rank. That makes a big difference (makes a difference with that Gambling bonus on the cash tables, too).
But even if we accept your "possession" explanation, there's still the problem of receiveing starships that have no bank notes attached. This allows owners to effortlessly generate hundreds of thousands in profits each month, by just engaging in mundane commerce. Indeed, I can't see any sane reason to bother adventuring if you own (or "possess") such profit centers. In my view, this is an unnecessary hassle for a referee who wants to run a gritty, low resource campaign.
And please remember that I have *never* said that a reasonably competent referee couldn't find ways to separate the players from their money. My own players can (bitterly) attest to my own talents in that area.
What I don't like is being forced *by the economic system* into doing so constantly (or allowing the characters to pile up staggering amounts of money). All too often, the result is that players become embittered (or merely fatalistic) at being screwed by the referee so often. And frankly, I have never enjoyed having to do so. Well...not much.
--Ty
Fritz_Brown
Super Moderator
I understand, tbeard. The "possession" angle gives you a way to not only plop a mortgage in their lap, but also a way to hang them on adventure hooks.
I guess, though, our players always saw owning a ship as a way to get from problem to problem, rather than a way to get rich quick. We were too busy running from homicidal megacorp managers and secret cabals and such to have time to even carry any cargo. So, it was probably a good thing we didn't have to make any crew salaries or mortgage payments......
I guess, though, our players always saw owning a ship as a way to get from problem to problem, rather than a way to get rich quick. We were too busy running from homicidal megacorp managers and secret cabals and such to have time to even carry any cargo. So, it was probably a good thing we didn't have to make any crew salaries or mortgage payments......
Thrash:
The economics of operating under Bk 2 (it can and frequently is done by players, no matter your text citation) are that the only way ships on loans operate is by speculation.
Haulage CAN NOT PAY THE LOANS. You again, completely misrepresent my argument. It's not "Most goods move by spec" but "most ships survive by spec" and "Spec is what gets ships (and thus goods) moving in the Imperium."
Quite also ironic is that the quote you use is from the section on speculative trade.
Those average of 20 tons of spec can, however, pay the bills quite nicely... Heck, 6 tons of computers will pay the bills for the year, provided that you use Broker 4's at both ends. WIth broker 3's, even, one is quite likely to make a decent profit.
Haulage is what ships do after pay-off for a nice quiet life, or to maximize hold usage. It's not how they pay the bills, it's just how they minimize their losses.
It is the reality of the CT Bk-2 rules: paid off ships can make it on haulage. Mortgaged vessels can not, but can make it on speculative cargos, with haulage to top out.
An example of this is Farm Machinery from an industrial world (-5 DM for source purchase, with a Broker 2, even, that is a maximum roll of 5 (12-5(In)-2(Broker)), for maximum 80% buy: no more than KCr120/Td. Jumping to an Ag world gives a sale DM+5. This gives a minimum sale roll of 9 (2+5(Ag)+2(Broker)), for a minimum sale value of 120%, or KCr180. Nominal values provide 40% purchase, and 300% sale; this is KCr60 and KCr450, or KCr360/T improvement in value.
Now, those are not counting brokerage fees...
worst case of above: pay KCr132 including broker+2 fees, sell to broker at KCr162. You still edge out KCr30 for 1 ton...
Nominal case: Pay KCr66, sell 405, thus KCr339 per ton profit.
Best case is still Pay KCr66, sell 540 (600-60), for KCr474/ton.
With only a net DM-5 buy and +5 sale (between broker and trade), there is a 9/1296 chance of NOT making a profit. Any time the lot and broker potential hits +4 or more, it's worth making the trip to make that combination pay on anything worth more than KCr10. If you don't have money to speculate, you are going to go broke anyway under Bk-2. Speculation drives the travel.
It may be less than 1/3rd the volume, but without it, the prices would fail; haulage would skyrocket in price, Ships would be worth far less, and it would be a very different game.
The economics of operating under Bk 2 (it can and frequently is done by players, no matter your text citation) are that the only way ships on loans operate is by speculation.
Haulage CAN NOT PAY THE LOANS. You again, completely misrepresent my argument. It's not "Most goods move by spec" but "most ships survive by spec" and "Spec is what gets ships (and thus goods) moving in the Imperium."
Quite also ironic is that the quote you use is from the section on speculative trade.
Those average of 20 tons of spec can, however, pay the bills quite nicely... Heck, 6 tons of computers will pay the bills for the year, provided that you use Broker 4's at both ends. WIth broker 3's, even, one is quite likely to make a decent profit.
Haulage is what ships do after pay-off for a nice quiet life, or to maximize hold usage. It's not how they pay the bills, it's just how they minimize their losses.
It is the reality of the CT Bk-2 rules: paid off ships can make it on haulage. Mortgaged vessels can not, but can make it on speculative cargos, with haulage to top out.
An example of this is Farm Machinery from an industrial world (-5 DM for source purchase, with a Broker 2, even, that is a maximum roll of 5 (12-5(In)-2(Broker)), for maximum 80% buy: no more than KCr120/Td. Jumping to an Ag world gives a sale DM+5. This gives a minimum sale roll of 9 (2+5(Ag)+2(Broker)), for a minimum sale value of 120%, or KCr180. Nominal values provide 40% purchase, and 300% sale; this is KCr60 and KCr450, or KCr360/T improvement in value.
Now, those are not counting brokerage fees...
worst case of above: pay KCr132 including broker+2 fees, sell to broker at KCr162. You still edge out KCr30 for 1 ton...
Nominal case: Pay KCr66, sell 405, thus KCr339 per ton profit.
Best case is still Pay KCr66, sell 540 (600-60), for KCr474/ton.
With only a net DM-5 buy and +5 sale (between broker and trade), there is a 9/1296 chance of NOT making a profit. Any time the lot and broker potential hits +4 or more, it's worth making the trip to make that combination pay on anything worth more than KCr10. If you don't have money to speculate, you are going to go broke anyway under Bk-2. Speculation drives the travel.
It may be less than 1/3rd the volume, but without it, the prices would fail; haulage would skyrocket in price, Ships would be worth far less, and it would be a very different game.
OK, let’s talk about shipping economics.
First of all, I proceed from two assumptions. The first is that the LBBs only provide a framework for Traveller rather than being all inclusive. The second is that the authors of LBB 2 did/do not have a background in shipping.
If LBB 2 is taken at face value, then interstellar transport in Traveller is a system in which credit is cheap, ships are extremely reliable and durable despite requiring virtually no maintenance, and prices are controlled, allowing no market fluctuations or qualitative competition.
In order to breathe life into the skeleton of a system set out in the LBBs, we need to look at all aspects of the shipping business model: how shipping works, the ships, finance and economics, and the risks. Let’s start with briefly establishing a broad vision of how shipping works in Traveller.
Vision of shipping
There are three basic models of shipping as an industry:
Liner Dominance – Ships tend to follow established routes. Shippers, receivers, and crew tend to be certified and possibly unionized. Law is present and businesses tend somewhat law abiding and rely on repeat business, service, and reputation. Ships tend to be in good material condition, and ships and crews must meet certain minimum standards enforced by government.
Tramp Dominance – Ships go where the cargoes take them. Shippers use whatever ship has free cargo space and cannot rely on repeat business. Profit has priority and deceit is common. No central authority exists to enforce safety standards or business practices.
Mixed – A mixture of Liners and Tramps. Trade in the core and along major trade routes is dominated by larger vessels, owned by larger lines, which follow established schedules. Near the border and in technological and population backwaters, tramps come to the fore, going to planets the larger lines don’t service, either because they are less profitable, have less volume, or are more corrupt or dangerous.
I tend to prefer the mixed model, but, as always, YMMV IYTU.
Next, we’ll talk about the ships themselves.
First of all, I proceed from two assumptions. The first is that the LBBs only provide a framework for Traveller rather than being all inclusive. The second is that the authors of LBB 2 did/do not have a background in shipping.
If LBB 2 is taken at face value, then interstellar transport in Traveller is a system in which credit is cheap, ships are extremely reliable and durable despite requiring virtually no maintenance, and prices are controlled, allowing no market fluctuations or qualitative competition.
In order to breathe life into the skeleton of a system set out in the LBBs, we need to look at all aspects of the shipping business model: how shipping works, the ships, finance and economics, and the risks. Let’s start with briefly establishing a broad vision of how shipping works in Traveller.
Vision of shipping
There are three basic models of shipping as an industry:
Liner Dominance – Ships tend to follow established routes. Shippers, receivers, and crew tend to be certified and possibly unionized. Law is present and businesses tend somewhat law abiding and rely on repeat business, service, and reputation. Ships tend to be in good material condition, and ships and crews must meet certain minimum standards enforced by government.
Tramp Dominance – Ships go where the cargoes take them. Shippers use whatever ship has free cargo space and cannot rely on repeat business. Profit has priority and deceit is common. No central authority exists to enforce safety standards or business practices.
Mixed – A mixture of Liners and Tramps. Trade in the core and along major trade routes is dominated by larger vessels, owned by larger lines, which follow established schedules. Near the border and in technological and population backwaters, tramps come to the fore, going to planets the larger lines don’t service, either because they are less profitable, have less volume, or are more corrupt or dangerous.
I tend to prefer the mixed model, but, as always, YMMV IYTU.
Next, we’ll talk about the ships themselves.
The Ships
Once again, we will proceed from two assumptions. First, all ships are not equal, even when comparing two examples of a single class. Second, ships are mechanical constructs which age, wear out, and require maintenance.
Condition
Condition is used to reflect the fact that a fifty year old rust-bucket does indeed differ from a brand new ship in her ability to reliably and efficient transport passengers and cargo. The concept is based on vehicular maintenance rules in Twilight 2000, modified for Traveller. The ship’s condition may reflect the overall state of the ship, or, in Grognard campaigns, the condition of each individual system may be tracked separately.
Material condition of a ship always begins at zero, when the ship is new, and varies from 0-5 as a result of age and damage.
Factors affecting condition are:
Age = .1 per year as modified by Routine maintenance (see below)
Annual Maintenance = .1 worse per quarter past scheduled annual maintenance. Effect is permanent.
Damage = .1 worse per instance of damage. Items replaced, rather than repaired, after battle do not contribute to worsening of ship’s condition, and may even improve it, as indicated by the referee.
Effect of Condition on reliability:
Condition = positive DM when rolling for breakdown (see below)
Effect of Condition on Revenue:
3 x condition = minus DM for attracting High Passengers
1 x condition = minus DM for attracting Middle Passengers
1 x condition = minus DM for attracting freight from Ag, Wa, or Ri planets
For speculative cargo, the referee must determine whether the cargo in question is perishable or fragile and roll one die. Result under ship’s condition indicates some or all of the cargo was damaged in transit. Cargo damage will be discussed further in the Risks section.
Age
Starships are built to be durable, but over time, even the most reliable of systems will wear out due to age and use. Ships have a planned service life equal to the tech level of the ship x 5 years. Thus, a tech nine trader will have a planned service life of 45 years whereas a tech fifteen Imperial cruiser will have a planned service life of 75 years. Ships will continue to function past their planned service life, but will require more maintenance and be more expensive to operate. Ships operating past planned service life require double the time and cost for routine and annual maintenance.
Routine Maintenance
Deck Maintenance = tonnage/10 work hours per week
Engineering Maintenance = tonnage of drives/10 work hours per week
Cost: 10Cr per hour per week for minor parts and supplies
For example, a Type A Free Trader will require 35 hours per week of routine maintenance at an average cost of 350Cr whereas a Type R would require 75 hours of maintenance per week at a cost of 750Cr. This does not mean that replacing filters, painting, replacing batteries, lubing seals, re-soldering damaged circuit cards, rebuilding valves, re-conditioning pumps, or any of the other myriad task necessary to keep something as complex as a ship running will cost exactly that sum each week, but that will be the average cost over time.
Effect of Routine Maintenance on Condition:
Age will reduce the condition of a ship at the rate of .1 per year (1 full level per decade).
Baseline routine maintenance for an entire year results in no worsening of condition other than normal aging. Not performing routine maintenance for a year results in an additional .1 worsening of condition for the year (total 1 level per five years). Doubling the time and money expended on routine maintenance for an entire year results in no worsening of ship’s material condition for that year due to age.
For example, the brand-new Oberlindes Fat Trader St, Profitus receives 75 hours and 750Cr routine maintenance per week per year will gradually deteriorate due to age until, after ten years of trading, she is at material condition 1 and, after twenty years, at material condition 2. She is then sold to private investors, who put their own Captain onboard. The new Captain draws 750Cr per week from the ship’s accounts, but, other than some token painting, does no maintenance. Instead, he pockets the cash, supplementing his salary in doing so by 3000Cr per month. The investors, with no shipping background, are none the wiser, until the ship reaches material condition 3 at twenty five years and the class surveyors (discussed in the section on economics) refuse to re-certify her in class. The Captain, having signed off a couple months before the survey was due, is nowhere to be found. Doubtless, he has taken the 150,000 or so credits he skimmed from the maintenance money over nearly five years, and is drinking umbrella drinks on a beach a few parsecs away.
Breakdowns
As previously stated, ship’s condition is used as a positive DM when rolling for breakdown. Although Book 2 leaves the specifics of a breakdown up to the referee, the following chart may come in handy to give the referee some ideas about what to inflict on the hapless players:
</font><blockquote>code:</font><hr /><pre style="font-size:x-small; font-family: monospace;">System affected:
1 2 3 4 5 6
1 * Computer Computer Avionics Sensors Sensors
2 Transponder * Comms Power Plant Life Support Boat
3 Maneuver Maneuver * Gravitics Jump Jump
4 Jump Fuel Tanks Fuel Purifier * Fuel Scoops Ramps
5 Cargo Airlock Loading Gear Weapons Fire Control * Plating
6 Hatches Airlock Landing Gear Lights Control Surfaces *
* = System in worst condition. If not tracking by system, apply result to the left or right.
Severity:
Minor Major Catastrophic
Computer Requires Reload Tape Wipes Crashes
Avionics -1 Piloting Unable to Fly Crash
Sensors Loss Range Loss Function Visual Only
Transponder Intermittant Down
Comms Loss Range Loss Transmit Down
Power Plant Loss of ?% Temp Down Down Hard
Life Support Unpleasant Loss of time Danger to personnel
Maneuver Drive -1 Piloting Unable to land Unable to stop
Gravitics Fluc in one space Inop one space All inop
Jump Drive Misjump +1 Inop Misjump
Fuel Tanks Small Leak Out Small Leak In Major Leak
Fuel Purifier Manual Op Down Fire
Fuel Scoops Manual Cycle Stuck Shut Stuck Open
Hold Dirty Cargo Damage Cargo Breach
Loading Ramps Manual Cycle Stuck Shut Stuck Open
Loading Airlocks Stuck Shut Stuck Open Breach
Cargo Loading Gear Breaks Damages Cargo Injures Personnel
Boat Manual Launch Unable Launch Unable Recover
Turrets
Weapons -1 Hit Jam Fire/Explosion
Fire Control -1 Hit Jam Random Fire
Hull
Hull Plating Slow Leak Breach Explosive Decompression
Hatches: Manual Cycle Stuck Shut Stuck Open
Personnel Airlocks Pump Breaks Stuck Shut Stuck Open/Breach
Landing Gear Manual Crank Stuck Down/Up Collapse
Lights One Out All Out Fire
Control Surfaces -1 Piloting Unable to Fly Crash
</pre>[/QUOTE]Breakdown:
2 or less under, equals, or exceeds condition = minor
3 or more less than condition OR existing minor = major
6 or more less than condition OR existing major = catastrophic
Next, I'll post some thoughts about finance and economics, but it may take me a couple days to have time to post again, so please be patient.
Also, any feedback about what I have already posted is of course appreciated. Hope it helps.
Once again, we will proceed from two assumptions. First, all ships are not equal, even when comparing two examples of a single class. Second, ships are mechanical constructs which age, wear out, and require maintenance.
Condition
Condition is used to reflect the fact that a fifty year old rust-bucket does indeed differ from a brand new ship in her ability to reliably and efficient transport passengers and cargo. The concept is based on vehicular maintenance rules in Twilight 2000, modified for Traveller. The ship’s condition may reflect the overall state of the ship, or, in Grognard campaigns, the condition of each individual system may be tracked separately.
Material condition of a ship always begins at zero, when the ship is new, and varies from 0-5 as a result of age and damage.
Factors affecting condition are:
Age = .1 per year as modified by Routine maintenance (see below)
Annual Maintenance = .1 worse per quarter past scheduled annual maintenance. Effect is permanent.
Damage = .1 worse per instance of damage. Items replaced, rather than repaired, after battle do not contribute to worsening of ship’s condition, and may even improve it, as indicated by the referee.
Effect of Condition on reliability:
Condition = positive DM when rolling for breakdown (see below)
Effect of Condition on Revenue:
3 x condition = minus DM for attracting High Passengers
1 x condition = minus DM for attracting Middle Passengers
1 x condition = minus DM for attracting freight from Ag, Wa, or Ri planets
For speculative cargo, the referee must determine whether the cargo in question is perishable or fragile and roll one die. Result under ship’s condition indicates some or all of the cargo was damaged in transit. Cargo damage will be discussed further in the Risks section.
Age
Starships are built to be durable, but over time, even the most reliable of systems will wear out due to age and use. Ships have a planned service life equal to the tech level of the ship x 5 years. Thus, a tech nine trader will have a planned service life of 45 years whereas a tech fifteen Imperial cruiser will have a planned service life of 75 years. Ships will continue to function past their planned service life, but will require more maintenance and be more expensive to operate. Ships operating past planned service life require double the time and cost for routine and annual maintenance.
Routine Maintenance
Deck Maintenance = tonnage/10 work hours per week
Engineering Maintenance = tonnage of drives/10 work hours per week
Cost: 10Cr per hour per week for minor parts and supplies
For example, a Type A Free Trader will require 35 hours per week of routine maintenance at an average cost of 350Cr whereas a Type R would require 75 hours of maintenance per week at a cost of 750Cr. This does not mean that replacing filters, painting, replacing batteries, lubing seals, re-soldering damaged circuit cards, rebuilding valves, re-conditioning pumps, or any of the other myriad task necessary to keep something as complex as a ship running will cost exactly that sum each week, but that will be the average cost over time.
Effect of Routine Maintenance on Condition:
Age will reduce the condition of a ship at the rate of .1 per year (1 full level per decade).
Baseline routine maintenance for an entire year results in no worsening of condition other than normal aging. Not performing routine maintenance for a year results in an additional .1 worsening of condition for the year (total 1 level per five years). Doubling the time and money expended on routine maintenance for an entire year results in no worsening of ship’s material condition for that year due to age.
For example, the brand-new Oberlindes Fat Trader St, Profitus receives 75 hours and 750Cr routine maintenance per week per year will gradually deteriorate due to age until, after ten years of trading, she is at material condition 1 and, after twenty years, at material condition 2. She is then sold to private investors, who put their own Captain onboard. The new Captain draws 750Cr per week from the ship’s accounts, but, other than some token painting, does no maintenance. Instead, he pockets the cash, supplementing his salary in doing so by 3000Cr per month. The investors, with no shipping background, are none the wiser, until the ship reaches material condition 3 at twenty five years and the class surveyors (discussed in the section on economics) refuse to re-certify her in class. The Captain, having signed off a couple months before the survey was due, is nowhere to be found. Doubtless, he has taken the 150,000 or so credits he skimmed from the maintenance money over nearly five years, and is drinking umbrella drinks on a beach a few parsecs away.
Breakdowns
As previously stated, ship’s condition is used as a positive DM when rolling for breakdown. Although Book 2 leaves the specifics of a breakdown up to the referee, the following chart may come in handy to give the referee some ideas about what to inflict on the hapless players:
</font><blockquote>code:</font><hr /><pre style="font-size:x-small; font-family: monospace;">System affected:
1 2 3 4 5 6
1 * Computer Computer Avionics Sensors Sensors
2 Transponder * Comms Power Plant Life Support Boat
3 Maneuver Maneuver * Gravitics Jump Jump
4 Jump Fuel Tanks Fuel Purifier * Fuel Scoops Ramps
5 Cargo Airlock Loading Gear Weapons Fire Control * Plating
6 Hatches Airlock Landing Gear Lights Control Surfaces *
* = System in worst condition. If not tracking by system, apply result to the left or right.
Severity:
Minor Major Catastrophic
Computer Requires Reload Tape Wipes Crashes
Avionics -1 Piloting Unable to Fly Crash
Sensors Loss Range Loss Function Visual Only
Transponder Intermittant Down
Comms Loss Range Loss Transmit Down
Power Plant Loss of ?% Temp Down Down Hard
Life Support Unpleasant Loss of time Danger to personnel
Maneuver Drive -1 Piloting Unable to land Unable to stop
Gravitics Fluc in one space Inop one space All inop
Jump Drive Misjump +1 Inop Misjump
Fuel Tanks Small Leak Out Small Leak In Major Leak
Fuel Purifier Manual Op Down Fire
Fuel Scoops Manual Cycle Stuck Shut Stuck Open
Hold Dirty Cargo Damage Cargo Breach
Loading Ramps Manual Cycle Stuck Shut Stuck Open
Loading Airlocks Stuck Shut Stuck Open Breach
Cargo Loading Gear Breaks Damages Cargo Injures Personnel
Boat Manual Launch Unable Launch Unable Recover
Turrets
Weapons -1 Hit Jam Fire/Explosion
Fire Control -1 Hit Jam Random Fire
Hull
Hull Plating Slow Leak Breach Explosive Decompression
Hatches: Manual Cycle Stuck Shut Stuck Open
Personnel Airlocks Pump Breaks Stuck Shut Stuck Open/Breach
Landing Gear Manual Crank Stuck Down/Up Collapse
Lights One Out All Out Fire
Control Surfaces -1 Piloting Unable to Fly Crash
</pre>[/QUOTE]Breakdown:
2 or less under, equals, or exceeds condition = minor
3 or more less than condition OR existing minor = major
6 or more less than condition OR existing major = catastrophic
Next, I'll post some thoughts about finance and economics, but it may take me a couple days to have time to post again, so please be patient.
Also, any feedback about what I have already posted is of course appreciated. Hope it helps.
Documents
Starships require a veritable forest of documents in trading. Although these can mostly be ignored by the campaign (in order to keep things moving), some require attention. At the bare minimum, the ship should have the following after purchase: Ownership Certificate (costs 1000Cr and is approved by the subsector government or Imperial rep), Bill of Sale (free to 250Cr for notarization, depending on law level), Imperial Registration Certificate (10Cr per ton), Deletion Certificate (paid by seller), Mandatory/Statutory (Class) Certificates (varies, see surveying), and Proof of Insurance/Certificate of Financial Responsibility (varies). Although the Bill of Sale and Deletion certificate can be ignored once the sale is complete, the others must be carried on board at all times. Otherwise, the ship may face heavy fines.
Surveys
Surveyors exist as a vehicle for ships to convince shippers and insurance companies that their vessels can carry cargo and passengers safely. There are three broad classes of surveyors: the Sisters, Deneb class, and Planetary Certificates. The oldest, and most prestigious, surveying societies are collectively referred to as the sisters (originally there were seven). They are also the most restrictive. Somewhat more generous are the societies which grew up in the frontier regions of the expanding Imperium, roughly 800 years ago. Known collectively as the Deneb class, they provide a cheaper alternative to the Sisters. For vessels which find even Deneb’s generous requirements onerous, each planetary government in the Imperium has the right to issue Statutory certificates. Some are quite stringent (statutory certificates from the Regina Bureau of Shipping, for example, are considered on par with the Sisters, and are about as expensive), whereas in others little details like a non-functioning life support system or a breached hull aren't enough to prevent a ship from passing inspection. Getting a survey costs 500-8000Cr depending on class. Correcting the deficiencies noted on a typical surveyor’s inspection costs:
Sisters Class: 10-25KCr plus 30-70KCr for each material condition past zero (up to Condition 2 max)
Deneb Class: 5-10KCr plus 10-20KCr for each material condition past zero (up to Condition 4 max)
Planetary: 500-1000Cr
At first glance, Planetary Certificates seem like a tremendous bargain, but they will significantly negatively impact a starship’s revenue and value as seen below.
Cargo Surveyors
A different animal than class surveyors, a cargo surveyor inspects the hold of a ship prior to loading perishable or fragile cargo. The cargo surveyor’s role will be more closely examined in the Risks section.
Depreciation and Value
A starship will depreciate 10% per decade of age. In addition, she loses 10% of her value per level of condition past zero. However, a starship maintained in Sisters survey class adds 10-20% to her sale price, whereas a starship which only has Planetary certificates subtracts ten percent.
For example, the aforementioned Type R St. Profitus had an original sale value of roughly 100MCr. When Oberlindes decide to sell her, after twenty years and at material condition 2, her value was 60MCr (60% of her original sale price). Now, let’s say Oberlindes, kept her certified through BV (a Vilani surveying society of Sisters level), which is not particularly hard to do with a new ship. The survey certification document alone adds 10-20MCr to her resale price.
Starships stop depreciating at roughly 10% of their original value, regardless of age or condition, as long as they remain able to trade. A starship unable to trade is worth about 1% of her original sale price to a stripping yard.
Revenue
As seen in the Ships section, poor material condition affects a ship’s ability to attract freight and passengers (shippers and passengers both tend to avoid banana boats). Passenger and freight rates are affected in the following fashion:
A Starport – minus 100Cr per ton/passenger (more competition)
B or Starport – minus 50Cr per ton/passenger
C Starport – even
D Starport – plus 50Cr per ton/passenger
E Starport – plus 100Cr per ton/passenger (ships don’t want to go to an E Starport for reasons discussed in Risks)
X Starport – referee’s discretion
8+ Population – minus 50Cr per ton/passenger (more competition)
5- Population – plus 50Cr per ton/passenger
Material Condition 0-1 – plus 100Cr per ton/passenger (nice new, clean ship)
Material Condition 2 – even
Material Condition 3 – minus 50Cr per ton/passenger (so, not exactly new is she?)
Material Condition 4 – minus 100Cr per ton/passenger (what a piece of junk!)
Material Condition 5 – minus 200Cr per ton/passenger (my God, can that thing still fly?)
Sisters Class Certificates – plus 50Cr per ton/passenger
Deneb Class Certificates – minus 50Cr per ton/passenger
Planetary Certificates – minus 100Cr per ton/passenger
Returning to our old friend the St. Profitus, when she was new and Oberlindes had her making the Rhylanor-Porozlo run, she would typically earn 1000Cr per ton of freight. Later, at 25 years old and material condition 3, she would only earn 800Cr per ton (assuming Deneb certificates). Her owners at that point would have to choose between accepting less profit or moving her to a less contested route.
One last note on revenue: the cost per jump model listed in book 2 is only viable until the second time the captain of a far trader and the captain of a free trader talk to a cargo broker. The first time, the cargo broker may say, “I have x tons of freight to move two parsecs, what are you boys charging”? The free trader answers, “2000Cr and it’ll get there in three weeks”, but the far trader answers “1000Cr and it’ll get there in a week”. The far trader gets the job (ya think?), but the far trader captain says to himself, “next time I’ll say 1800. I’m still sure to get the job and I’ll nearly double my profit”. Whether a referee uses 1000Cr base plus 500 per jump number above one or 1000Cr per parsec or some formula in between, the 1000Cr per jump formula is simply nonsensical and should be avoided.
Insurance
All ships are required to have P&I insurance at a minimum. As there is an excellent thread on insurance, by someone experienced in the business, underway in the Lone Star, it would be redundant to delve further here.
Next up: the Risks (hoestly, it probably will be a couple days until I post this one due to work).
Starships require a veritable forest of documents in trading. Although these can mostly be ignored by the campaign (in order to keep things moving), some require attention. At the bare minimum, the ship should have the following after purchase: Ownership Certificate (costs 1000Cr and is approved by the subsector government or Imperial rep), Bill of Sale (free to 250Cr for notarization, depending on law level), Imperial Registration Certificate (10Cr per ton), Deletion Certificate (paid by seller), Mandatory/Statutory (Class) Certificates (varies, see surveying), and Proof of Insurance/Certificate of Financial Responsibility (varies). Although the Bill of Sale and Deletion certificate can be ignored once the sale is complete, the others must be carried on board at all times. Otherwise, the ship may face heavy fines.
Surveys
Surveyors exist as a vehicle for ships to convince shippers and insurance companies that their vessels can carry cargo and passengers safely. There are three broad classes of surveyors: the Sisters, Deneb class, and Planetary Certificates. The oldest, and most prestigious, surveying societies are collectively referred to as the sisters (originally there were seven). They are also the most restrictive. Somewhat more generous are the societies which grew up in the frontier regions of the expanding Imperium, roughly 800 years ago. Known collectively as the Deneb class, they provide a cheaper alternative to the Sisters. For vessels which find even Deneb’s generous requirements onerous, each planetary government in the Imperium has the right to issue Statutory certificates. Some are quite stringent (statutory certificates from the Regina Bureau of Shipping, for example, are considered on par with the Sisters, and are about as expensive), whereas in others little details like a non-functioning life support system or a breached hull aren't enough to prevent a ship from passing inspection. Getting a survey costs 500-8000Cr depending on class. Correcting the deficiencies noted on a typical surveyor’s inspection costs:
Sisters Class: 10-25KCr plus 30-70KCr for each material condition past zero (up to Condition 2 max)
Deneb Class: 5-10KCr plus 10-20KCr for each material condition past zero (up to Condition 4 max)
Planetary: 500-1000Cr
At first glance, Planetary Certificates seem like a tremendous bargain, but they will significantly negatively impact a starship’s revenue and value as seen below.
Cargo Surveyors
A different animal than class surveyors, a cargo surveyor inspects the hold of a ship prior to loading perishable or fragile cargo. The cargo surveyor’s role will be more closely examined in the Risks section.
Depreciation and Value
A starship will depreciate 10% per decade of age. In addition, she loses 10% of her value per level of condition past zero. However, a starship maintained in Sisters survey class adds 10-20% to her sale price, whereas a starship which only has Planetary certificates subtracts ten percent.
For example, the aforementioned Type R St. Profitus had an original sale value of roughly 100MCr. When Oberlindes decide to sell her, after twenty years and at material condition 2, her value was 60MCr (60% of her original sale price). Now, let’s say Oberlindes, kept her certified through BV (a Vilani surveying society of Sisters level), which is not particularly hard to do with a new ship. The survey certification document alone adds 10-20MCr to her resale price.
Starships stop depreciating at roughly 10% of their original value, regardless of age or condition, as long as they remain able to trade. A starship unable to trade is worth about 1% of her original sale price to a stripping yard.
Revenue
As seen in the Ships section, poor material condition affects a ship’s ability to attract freight and passengers (shippers and passengers both tend to avoid banana boats). Passenger and freight rates are affected in the following fashion:
A Starport – minus 100Cr per ton/passenger (more competition)
B or Starport – minus 50Cr per ton/passenger
C Starport – even
D Starport – plus 50Cr per ton/passenger
E Starport – plus 100Cr per ton/passenger (ships don’t want to go to an E Starport for reasons discussed in Risks)
X Starport – referee’s discretion
8+ Population – minus 50Cr per ton/passenger (more competition)
5- Population – plus 50Cr per ton/passenger
Material Condition 0-1 – plus 100Cr per ton/passenger (nice new, clean ship)
Material Condition 2 – even
Material Condition 3 – minus 50Cr per ton/passenger (so, not exactly new is she?)
Material Condition 4 – minus 100Cr per ton/passenger (what a piece of junk!)
Material Condition 5 – minus 200Cr per ton/passenger (my God, can that thing still fly?)
Sisters Class Certificates – plus 50Cr per ton/passenger
Deneb Class Certificates – minus 50Cr per ton/passenger
Planetary Certificates – minus 100Cr per ton/passenger
Returning to our old friend the St. Profitus, when she was new and Oberlindes had her making the Rhylanor-Porozlo run, she would typically earn 1000Cr per ton of freight. Later, at 25 years old and material condition 3, she would only earn 800Cr per ton (assuming Deneb certificates). Her owners at that point would have to choose between accepting less profit or moving her to a less contested route.
One last note on revenue: the cost per jump model listed in book 2 is only viable until the second time the captain of a far trader and the captain of a free trader talk to a cargo broker. The first time, the cargo broker may say, “I have x tons of freight to move two parsecs, what are you boys charging”? The free trader answers, “2000Cr and it’ll get there in three weeks”, but the far trader answers “1000Cr and it’ll get there in a week”. The far trader gets the job (ya think?), but the far trader captain says to himself, “next time I’ll say 1800. I’m still sure to get the job and I’ll nearly double my profit”. Whether a referee uses 1000Cr base plus 500 per jump number above one or 1000Cr per parsec or some formula in between, the 1000Cr per jump formula is simply nonsensical and should be avoided.
Insurance
All ships are required to have P&I insurance at a minimum. As there is an excellent thread on insurance, by someone experienced in the business, underway in the Lone Star, it would be redundant to delve further here.
Next up: the Risks (hoestly, it probably will be a couple days until I post this one due to work).
Subsidized Freighter:
</font><blockquote>code:</font><hr /><pre style="font-size:x-small; font-family: monospace;">Annual Subby # Rate Sub# SubRate
JFuel 500000 25 20000 40 500
PPFuel 65000 13 5000 10 500
LS-HP/MP 650000 25 26000 13 2000
LS-LP 17500 25 700 7 100
Annual Maint 101030 1 101030 0.001 101030000
Landing Fees 2600 26 100 1 100
Salaries 273000 13 21000 1 21000
Mail -625000 25 -25000 5 -5000
Cargo-Nom -4125000 25 -165000 165 -1000
HP-Nom -750000 25 -30000 3 -10000
MP-Nom -800000 25 -32000 4 -8000
LP-Nom -175000 25 -7000 7 -1000
-4865870
Revenue
Cargo PerJ Units Rate/unit
Pop5->(Pop5-7) min 910000 35000 2M10+3m5 35 1000
Pop5->(Pop5-7) Max 1716000 66000 6M60+7m30 66 1000
Pop5->(Pop5-7) Midline 4290000 165000 4M30+5M15 165 1000
HP
Pop5->(Pop5-7) min 0 0 HPm=2-6=0 0 10000
Pop5->(Pop5-7) Max 2080000 80000 HPM=12-1=11 8 10000
Pop5->(Pop5-7) Midline 780000 30000 HPc=7-4 3 10000
MP
Pop5->(Pop5-7) min 0 0 MPm=3-12=0 0 8000
Pop5->(Pop5-7) Max 1664000 64000 MPM=18-2=16 8 8000
Pop5->(Pop5-7) Midline 832000 32000 MPc=11-7=4 4 8000
LP
Pop5->(Pop5-7) min 0 0 LPm=3-6=0 1000
Pop5->(Pop5-7) Max 234000 9000 LPM=18-1=17 9 1000
Pop5->(Pop5-7) Midline 182000 7000 LPc=11-4=7 7 1000</pre>[/QUOTE]This is listed as expenses... she makes a about MCr4.5 on haulage on nominal runs; she runs 1/6th empty hull nominally.
</font><blockquote>code:</font><hr /><pre style="font-size:x-small; font-family: monospace;">Annual SubLiner # Rate Sub# SubRate
JFuel 2250000 25 90000 180 500
PPFuel 195000 13 15000 30 500
LS-HP/MP 650000 25 26000 13 2000
LS-LP 17500 25 700 7 100
Annual Maint 236970 1 236970 0.001 236970000
Landing Fees 2600 26 100 1 100
Salaries 464100 13 35700 1 35700 PNEEESSSMG
Mail -625000 25 -25000 5 -5000
Cargo-Nom -3100000 25 -124000 124 -1000
HP-Nom -750000 25 -30000 3 -10000
MP-Nom -800000 25 -32000 4 -8000
LP-Nom -175000 25 -7000 7 -1000
-1633830</pre>[/QUOTE]Not quite MCr2 per year; half is the subsidy payment.
The SubLiner replaces in 290 years, in a nominal route. SInce the implied devaluation effect suggests a lifespan of 100 years, the sub liner is NOT operating effectively; even if the replacement is taking the full profit, rather than the investor's half, she's not paid off in 145 years, on a nominal pop5 route. On a pop8-pop8 route, she pays off in 24... and under subsidy is fixated for 40 years... and pays off 166%. Less even than loans.
The SubMerch replaces in 41 years, on the investor's half.
Neither can buy-out without forfeit. However, when one adds a reasonable allotment for speculative trade (which on the SubMerch is 30 tons available), we can add some Cr700-MCr3 for an average 5 tons, on about 1/6th of route runs, if the route is set up alternating In-Ag. Or, the cargoes could be carried multiple jjumps is the usually empty space,
Here's the subby, showing a profit on loans
</font><blockquote>code:</font><hr /><pre style="font-size:x-small; font-family: monospace;">Annual Subby # Rate Sub# SubRate
JFuel 500000 25 20000 40 500
PPFuel 65000 13 5000 10 500
LS-HP/MP 650000 25 26000 13 2000
LS-LP 17500 25 700 7 100
Loans 5472458.3333 13 420958.33333 0.00416666667 101030000
Annual Maint 101030 1 101030 0.001 101030000
Landing Fees 2600 26 100 1 100
Salaries 273000 13 21000 1 21000
Mail -625000 25 -25000 5 -5000
Cargo-Nom -4100000 25 -164000 164 -1000
HP-Nom -4250000 25 -170000 17 -10000
MP-Nom -800000 25 -32000 4 -8000
LP-Nom -225000 25 -9000 9 -1000
-2918411</pre>[/QUOTE]So, yes, the Type R is fundable, with a nominal run.
By adding speculation, however, in the expected 30 empty tons, for nominal runs, one can make an extra MCr2-3 per year under Bk2, simply by making key purchases at key times; lucky shots (typically 3/decade IME) will be several million credits in a single hack, often as many as 10 after brokerage. The once-a decade buy-comps-on-ind can make more than MCr30 on a single ton; if one gets 6 tons, one can then BUY OUTRIGHT a new free-trader or Subbie, and return the subbie to the subsidizer, or turn it over to the first officer, or otherwise do away with needing to operate it.
SubLiners can't operate under a loan, either.
</font><blockquote>code:</font><hr /><pre style="font-size:x-small; font-family: monospace;">Annual SubLiner # Rate Sub# SubRate
JFuel 2250000 25 90000 180 500
PPFuel 195000 13 15000 30 500
LS-HP/MP 650000 25 26000 13 2000
LS-LP 17500 25 700 7 100
Loans 12835875 13 987375 0.00416666667 236970000
Annual Maint 236970 1 236970 0.001 236970000
Landing Fees 2600 26 100 1 100
Salaries 464100 13 35700 1 35700
Mail -625000 25 -25000 5 -5000
Cargo-Nom -3100000 25 -124000 124 -1000
HP-Nom -5250000 25 -210000 21 -10000
MP-Nom 0 25 0 0 -8000
LP-Nom -225000 25 -9000 9 -1000
7452045</pre>[/QUOTE]Well, here we have a ship that can't operate under a loan under Bk2 even with reasonable 2-5 MCr of Spec per year. Note, to operate with the shown full HP rates, she's also running PopA-Pop-A+, and has a good purser
The Type R has an escape clause: spec trade will allow her to be replaced on a nominal route very often.... Pirates can expect any working subbie to have a scad of CASH aboard...
Type M's are subsidized because they are financial slobs. Given their long hauls, they operate as line-craft or subsidy ships only. But only a fool would subsidize one for other than producing local tourism...
Of the canonical cargo ships, only the Type R is capable of making the payments on haulage.
Here's the aggregate ratio (based upon the World Gen Tables, the Ship Encounter tables, and the resultant Probability rates...)
S&SP:160704 A:262872 R:270972 M:99198 T:150390
Considering only AR&M tonnages of cargo,
We wind up with A=21555504 R=54194400 M=12796542...
But when we add the Type T&TP rates...T=7519500
and the Scouts: S=482112
So: Subsidy dependent tonnage: = 12796542
Can make non spec cargo tonnage = 54194400
Must Speculate (A,S,T):=29557116
Right around 1/3 of cargo tonnage is speculation dependent; and more than half the ships; that really is a broken number, because most T's are patrol, not mercantile nor pirate, but that's below the scope of the tables. Scouts, well, we can figure about half are detached duty vessels (given the aforementioned 100year lifespan, and the rules on DD Scoutships...)
But, given the returns of that 1/4th of cargo tonnage in Type A's, will be mostly from spec, and that Type R's can more than treble their profits by carrying spec, there is no convincing reason they wouldn't. One can be choosy. Spec can account for more than half the INCOME from merchants.... and most of the profit.
Chris, no offense, but given the rules in Bk2, the spec is the thing, and haulage is solely for filling out the hold and making all the hold pay off. That quote is misleading, and mispoints the reader to thinking that the major Finanacial role is haulage; the money to be made by spec, and the ease of making it pay over a long term make spec the primary motivator, even if it's less than 1/10th of the volume of trade.
I can understand why spec is reduced to practically worthless in Bk7; At most a few hundred credits per ton above haulage; bk7 also makes almost all the commercial designs except the R unable to operate on a mortgage, even with spec.
(MT escapes this Bk-7 fate by decreasing fuel rates for jump; it's dicey, but doable to make money in MT by using spec...)
(T20 increases available lots, and allows Merchants to take the ability to predict 1 die, rarely a second, and reduces the peak viability while increasing the average good's value for spec, thus making spec even more valuable.)
</font><blockquote>code:</font><hr /><pre style="font-size:x-small; font-family: monospace;">Annual Subby # Rate Sub# SubRate
JFuel 500000 25 20000 40 500
PPFuel 65000 13 5000 10 500
LS-HP/MP 650000 25 26000 13 2000
LS-LP 17500 25 700 7 100
Annual Maint 101030 1 101030 0.001 101030000
Landing Fees 2600 26 100 1 100
Salaries 273000 13 21000 1 21000
Mail -625000 25 -25000 5 -5000
Cargo-Nom -4125000 25 -165000 165 -1000
HP-Nom -750000 25 -30000 3 -10000
MP-Nom -800000 25 -32000 4 -8000
LP-Nom -175000 25 -7000 7 -1000
-4865870
Revenue
Cargo PerJ Units Rate/unit
Pop5->(Pop5-7) min 910000 35000 2M10+3m5 35 1000
Pop5->(Pop5-7) Max 1716000 66000 6M60+7m30 66 1000
Pop5->(Pop5-7) Midline 4290000 165000 4M30+5M15 165 1000
HP
Pop5->(Pop5-7) min 0 0 HPm=2-6=0 0 10000
Pop5->(Pop5-7) Max 2080000 80000 HPM=12-1=11 8 10000
Pop5->(Pop5-7) Midline 780000 30000 HPc=7-4 3 10000
MP
Pop5->(Pop5-7) min 0 0 MPm=3-12=0 0 8000
Pop5->(Pop5-7) Max 1664000 64000 MPM=18-2=16 8 8000
Pop5->(Pop5-7) Midline 832000 32000 MPc=11-7=4 4 8000
LP
Pop5->(Pop5-7) min 0 0 LPm=3-6=0 1000
Pop5->(Pop5-7) Max 234000 9000 LPM=18-1=17 9 1000
Pop5->(Pop5-7) Midline 182000 7000 LPc=11-4=7 7 1000</pre>[/QUOTE]This is listed as expenses... she makes a about MCr4.5 on haulage on nominal runs; she runs 1/6th empty hull nominally.
</font><blockquote>code:</font><hr /><pre style="font-size:x-small; font-family: monospace;">Annual SubLiner # Rate Sub# SubRate
JFuel 2250000 25 90000 180 500
PPFuel 195000 13 15000 30 500
LS-HP/MP 650000 25 26000 13 2000
LS-LP 17500 25 700 7 100
Annual Maint 236970 1 236970 0.001 236970000
Landing Fees 2600 26 100 1 100
Salaries 464100 13 35700 1 35700 PNEEESSSMG
Mail -625000 25 -25000 5 -5000
Cargo-Nom -3100000 25 -124000 124 -1000
HP-Nom -750000 25 -30000 3 -10000
MP-Nom -800000 25 -32000 4 -8000
LP-Nom -175000 25 -7000 7 -1000
-1633830</pre>[/QUOTE]Not quite MCr2 per year; half is the subsidy payment.
The SubLiner replaces in 290 years, in a nominal route. SInce the implied devaluation effect suggests a lifespan of 100 years, the sub liner is NOT operating effectively; even if the replacement is taking the full profit, rather than the investor's half, she's not paid off in 145 years, on a nominal pop5 route. On a pop8-pop8 route, she pays off in 24... and under subsidy is fixated for 40 years... and pays off 166%. Less even than loans.
The SubMerch replaces in 41 years, on the investor's half.
Neither can buy-out without forfeit. However, when one adds a reasonable allotment for speculative trade (which on the SubMerch is 30 tons available), we can add some Cr700-MCr3 for an average 5 tons, on about 1/6th of route runs, if the route is set up alternating In-Ag. Or, the cargoes could be carried multiple jjumps is the usually empty space,
Here's the subby, showing a profit on loans
</font><blockquote>code:</font><hr /><pre style="font-size:x-small; font-family: monospace;">Annual Subby # Rate Sub# SubRate
JFuel 500000 25 20000 40 500
PPFuel 65000 13 5000 10 500
LS-HP/MP 650000 25 26000 13 2000
LS-LP 17500 25 700 7 100
Loans 5472458.3333 13 420958.33333 0.00416666667 101030000
Annual Maint 101030 1 101030 0.001 101030000
Landing Fees 2600 26 100 1 100
Salaries 273000 13 21000 1 21000
Mail -625000 25 -25000 5 -5000
Cargo-Nom -4100000 25 -164000 164 -1000
HP-Nom -4250000 25 -170000 17 -10000
MP-Nom -800000 25 -32000 4 -8000
LP-Nom -225000 25 -9000 9 -1000
-2918411</pre>[/QUOTE]So, yes, the Type R is fundable, with a nominal run.
By adding speculation, however, in the expected 30 empty tons, for nominal runs, one can make an extra MCr2-3 per year under Bk2, simply by making key purchases at key times; lucky shots (typically 3/decade IME) will be several million credits in a single hack, often as many as 10 after brokerage. The once-a decade buy-comps-on-ind can make more than MCr30 on a single ton; if one gets 6 tons, one can then BUY OUTRIGHT a new free-trader or Subbie, and return the subbie to the subsidizer, or turn it over to the first officer, or otherwise do away with needing to operate it.
SubLiners can't operate under a loan, either.
</font><blockquote>code:</font><hr /><pre style="font-size:x-small; font-family: monospace;">Annual SubLiner # Rate Sub# SubRate
JFuel 2250000 25 90000 180 500
PPFuel 195000 13 15000 30 500
LS-HP/MP 650000 25 26000 13 2000
LS-LP 17500 25 700 7 100
Loans 12835875 13 987375 0.00416666667 236970000
Annual Maint 236970 1 236970 0.001 236970000
Landing Fees 2600 26 100 1 100
Salaries 464100 13 35700 1 35700
Mail -625000 25 -25000 5 -5000
Cargo-Nom -3100000 25 -124000 124 -1000
HP-Nom -5250000 25 -210000 21 -10000
MP-Nom 0 25 0 0 -8000
LP-Nom -225000 25 -9000 9 -1000
7452045</pre>[/QUOTE]Well, here we have a ship that can't operate under a loan under Bk2 even with reasonable 2-5 MCr of Spec per year. Note, to operate with the shown full HP rates, she's also running PopA-Pop-A+, and has a good purser
The Type R has an escape clause: spec trade will allow her to be replaced on a nominal route very often.... Pirates can expect any working subbie to have a scad of CASH aboard...
Type M's are subsidized because they are financial slobs. Given their long hauls, they operate as line-craft or subsidy ships only. But only a fool would subsidize one for other than producing local tourism...
Of the canonical cargo ships, only the Type R is capable of making the payments on haulage.
Here's the aggregate ratio (based upon the World Gen Tables, the Ship Encounter tables, and the resultant Probability rates...)
S&SP:160704 A:262872 R:270972 M:99198 T:150390
Considering only AR&M tonnages of cargo,
We wind up with A=21555504 R=54194400 M=12796542...
But when we add the Type T&TP rates...T=7519500
and the Scouts: S=482112
So: Subsidy dependent tonnage: = 12796542
Can make non spec cargo tonnage = 54194400
Must Speculate (A,S,T):=29557116
Right around 1/3 of cargo tonnage is speculation dependent; and more than half the ships; that really is a broken number, because most T's are patrol, not mercantile nor pirate, but that's below the scope of the tables. Scouts, well, we can figure about half are detached duty vessels (given the aforementioned 100year lifespan, and the rules on DD Scoutships...)
But, given the returns of that 1/4th of cargo tonnage in Type A's, will be mostly from spec, and that Type R's can more than treble their profits by carrying spec, there is no convincing reason they wouldn't. One can be choosy. Spec can account for more than half the INCOME from merchants.... and most of the profit.
Chris, no offense, but given the rules in Bk2, the spec is the thing, and haulage is solely for filling out the hold and making all the hold pay off. That quote is misleading, and mispoints the reader to thinking that the major Finanacial role is haulage; the money to be made by spec, and the ease of making it pay over a long term make spec the primary motivator, even if it's less than 1/10th of the volume of trade.
I can understand why spec is reduced to practically worthless in Bk7; At most a few hundred credits per ton above haulage; bk7 also makes almost all the commercial designs except the R unable to operate on a mortgage, even with spec.
(MT escapes this Bk-7 fate by decreasing fuel rates for jump; it's dicey, but doable to make money in MT by using spec...)
(T20 increases available lots, and allows Merchants to take the ability to predict 1 die, rarely a second, and reduces the peak viability while increasing the average good's value for spec, thus making spec even more valuable.)
The rewards of shipping are clearly expressed in Book 2. The potential to generate six figures of profit in two weeks is a powerful attraction. Much less space is devoted to business risks and pitfalls in shipping. Let’s consider the stages in a tramp freighter’s business cycle. Then we’ll step through each phase, focusing on some of the potential risks of each.
The Phases
1. Off Hire
2. Cargo Loading
3. Passenger Embarkation and Clear Port
4. Transit to Jump
5. Jump
6. Transit to Port
7. Land, Clear Customs
8. Discharge Cargo
9. Repeat
Off Hire
After the vessel completes a voyage charter (freight contract) until she begins her next cycle, she is technically off hire. A profit minded group will attempt to keep this time as short as possible, but the vagaries of fixing hires, finding passengers, performing routine maintenance, and adventuring may contribute, or at least fill, the time between cargoes. Except for the adventuring part, this not the riskiest period in the ship’s cycle.
Cargo Loading
The heart of trading operations lies in cargo handling. Except for unusual circumstances, ship’s crews do not load or unload cargo for many reasons. First, it is probably against the law if the planet has a stevedore’s union. Second, most ships can’t spare the manpower (sophontpower?). Thirdly, and by far most importantly, it is not in the ship’s interests to do so. Stevedores are paid by the charterer/shipper, and any damage or delay incurred by the stevedores is the responsibility of the charterer and not the ship. Even if the ship and not the stevedores are the proximate cause, the crew can often confuse the issue enough to convince the shipper that the stevedores may have caused the damage. If the crew is doing the work, then all responsibility for any damage will devolve back to the ship.
The Stevedores
A stevedore can move tech level squared tons of cargo per man per work hour. For example, two tech level seven stevedores, working hard, with forklifts or pallet jacks can empty a Type A Free Trader’s hold in a little over an hour. It would take a gang of ten tech level 1 stevedores at least an entire day (over eight work hours) to accomplish the same job. What constitutes a work day and working hours is variable from planet to planet. Additionally, stevedores will generally not work at full efficiency. Fifty to seventy five percent efficiency is more common. Since stevedores typically get paid by the hour, or on some planets are salaried government employees, they do not have any incentive to work full speed.
A crewmember should be present for all cargo operations to prevent, or at least witness, stevedore damage to the ship or ship’s gear, stevedore damage to the cargo, stevedore theft of ship’s equipment, and to ensure all cargo is properly loaded and secured for space.
A trader’s drives may be her heart, but the hold is the money-maker. After decades of being banged into by grav pallets, enduring extreme changes in temperature and humidity between space and re-entry, and having various chemicals and substances poured, dropped, slammed, or leaked into her, it is to be expected that the hold would be somewhat beat-up. A stevedore slowing a grav pallet late, letting the load slam into the bulkhead (weakening it and possibly causing a small fuel leak), a front end loader clipping a hydraulic piston for the loading ramp (breaking it and causing a hydraulic leak), a forklift knocking the overhead sprinklers (separating the head and causing a mini-rainstorm in the hold), or a stevedore grazing the airlock door while carrying something sharp (cutting the gasket so the door won’t seal properly), are everyday examples of how the the ship can sustain damage during loading and rack up minor (or major) expenses.
Stevedore damage to the cargo may be caused by carelessness or incompetence, or it may be willful. Consider a ship loading a mixed cargo of palletized metal ingots (7-11 cubic feet per ton, depending on the metal) and cases of Hava-cola. A forklift driver sets a pallet of ingots on top of a pallet of cola and voila! – a big mess in the hold and a big delay in loading until the shipper’s agent arrives and surveys the damage (note: if it is speculative cargo hope the players have bought insurance). Then another delay as the crushed cola is unloaded and the deck cleaned before loading operations can re-commence.
On poor or corrupt worlds, the stevedores should be expected to try to steal items from the cargo or the ship. If they steal from the cargo, it is not normally a problem for the ship unless the master signs the Bills of Lading `Clean” (meaning the ship accepts responsibility for inspecting the cargo for completeness and quality). On many ship classes, the cargo hold is not far from the ship’s locker, the drive rooms, crew accommodations, or other spaces, which may contain valuables. If given the opportunity, ship’s items could “walk”.
Although stevedores are technically responsible to ensure the cargo is properly loaded and secured, it should be checked by a member of the crew. If cargo shifts or breaks loose in space or atmospheric re-entry, it is not the stevedores who will be endangered, it is the crewmembers. Likewise, an unsecured 10ton cargo container or bundle of steel rods won’t be punching a hole in the stevedore’s house, they’ll be punching a hole in the side of the ship.
The Cargo Surveyor and the Supercargo
Most shippers will rely on the ship’s certificates as a guideline for the condition of the ship, but charter parties (freight contracts) for valuable, perishable, or fragile cargo invariably include clauses allowing the shipper to have a cargo surveyor inspect the hold before loading and to place a supercargo on the ship for the duration the cargo is on board. If the cargo surveyor rejects the ship, then the ship may have to scramble for a new cargo. IMTU cargo surveyors are quite common, but supercargoes less so. The supercargo travels free, but must pay his life support.
Take two instances of cargo damage as examples. In the first, an aging free trader lifts off with fifty tons of Château Regina 1094 champagne onboard. At 300 bottles per ton (allowing a healthy amount of packing), 100CR per bottle, the bubbly is worth 30,000Cr per ton. As the ship leaves the atmosphere, it becomes apparent the loading ramp did not completely seal. The crew stabilizes the pressure at 0.5atm, but by that time all the stoppers have popped, ruining the 1.5MCr cargo. The ship is responsible for the loss. Of course, the shipper won’t have to collect himself, his insurance company will pay him, then their legions of high-powered attorneys will come after the ship. Another example, the ship loads fifty tons of coffee valued at, say, 3000Cr per ton. The ship leaves the atmosphere and begins transit to jump point. In the hold, the temperature drops from tropical humid 40C to shipboard comfortable 20C. Unbeknownst to the crew, the tainted atmosphere of the planet has clogged the life support’s moisture removal filter. The humidity condenses in the hold. By the time the ship lands eight days later, the entire cargo has been ruined by mildew. In both cases, routine maintenance and a thorough pre-flight inspection could have found and prevented the damage. However, if the crew was distracted, say by hurrying off planet during a firefight (not that PCs have ever done that), then, well, tough break.
The referee can roleplay cargo risk or assign a cargo vulnerability number. The number should range from zero for the most fragile cargoes (virgin skymelons too sensitive to be touched by human hands) to four (scrap steel, impossible to damage short of jettisoning it into a star). A single die is rolled, adjusted by the cargo vulnerability number. If the adjusted roll is less than the ship’s material condition, then the cargo has sustained damage during the trip. The exact extent and nature of the damage is left to the referee.
Speculative Cargo
Although often ignored, insurance, stevedoring (20-50Cr per ton for each loading or unloading), and customs duties on speculative cargo must all be payed by the players. Stevedore cargo damage to speculative cargo may be paid by the insurance (if any), but the legal hassle of trying to prove the ship was not at fault for the damage is often not worth the effort. Unless the characters want to spend days visiting distributors and retailers on the destination world trying to sell cargo themselves, all speculative cargos will be sold through cargo brokers.
Clearing Port
Passengers typically embark a few hours before departure. Although the crew has no legal authority to search them, passengers attempting to smuggle, either in their luggage or on their persons, can present problems for the ship. If the authorities decide to conduct a departure inspection, any contraband found may result in delays as the passenger is either fined or arrested and perhaps a wider search of the ship itself is conducted. If contraband is found during that search, the penalties may range from delay and fines, to detention, to imprisonment for the crew and seizure of the ship.
Before a ship can leave port, she must have no outstanding accounts, including port costs. I find the port costs listed in Book 2 to be far too low. I roll once, per Book 2, but instead of making the result the weekly charge, I make a note of it and call it the day rate for the port.
Jump
Probably the safest time in the cycle for player characters, the major risks are breakdown and passenger problems.
Transit to Port
Piracy, space disaster, and micro-meteor strikes may all distract a crew from reporting arrival to port control, contacting the receiving agent, and contacting brokers to inform them of the ship’s arrival. The longer a ship delays in informing the receiving agent and the cargo brokers on the planet, the longer the delay will be until unloading commences and the fewer cargo offers the ship will receive.
Landing and the Port
Terrestrial weather may also prove problematic. A hurricane, volcanic eruption, or other similarly violent "Act of God" may require the ship to delay landing or make a piloting roll to land safely. Depending on the region and nature of your campaign, various characters may be detained on board or have to arrange and pay for entry visas to leave the ship/port. Depending on the port and the local law level, clearing customs may range from non-existent to time-consuming and expensive.
Class A, B, and C starports will generally have traffic control, a portmaster and agents to arrange power, communications, chandler’s services,, and garbage disposal for the ship, established cargo brokerages, and space supply stores for routine maintenance or repair supplies. In addition, local authorities will have established procedures for arrival inspections, customs, and passenger debarkation.
Class D starports will lack some or all of the above services. At least one agent should be present, but some of the services normally provided by agents may not be (power or landline communications for example).
Class E starports will have no services. Customs, law enforcement, or military inspections may be irregular, unannounced, or simply not happen. The port may have no established perimeter and no security, allowing people to simply walk up to the ship. The crew may have to search for the receiver themselves, if the receiver did not see the ship land. Picture a low-tech world with a Class E starport. Ship’s crews dispose of shipboard garbage by dumping it out the engineering airlock, where a small crowd of locals have gathered to pick through it for anything valuable. If an entrance is left open or unguarded, locals swarm through it grabbing for anything not nailed down. Prostitutes bang on the ship’s hatches soliciting business. A sophont in uniform is a sophont seeking a bribe. God help the ship that breaks down here, because machine shops don’t exist and parts are nearly impossible to find. Nasty places, but good for tramp adventures.
Cargo Discharge
Having made contact with the receiving agent, the ship lands and clears customs. The agent arrives, arranges ground transportation for the crew, ensures port services are connected, and asks the captain when the ship will be ready to discharge cargo. Depending on the time of day, discharge could begin immediately or it could begin the next working day (which could be tomorrow, could be after the three-day weekend, or could be next week if the ship had the misfortune to arrive during a prolonged holiday). At any rate, the ship’s captain will want to verify receipt of payment before opening the hold. Typically, for freight, the charter payment is made after the ship is loaded or when she is enroute to jump point. In dangerous areas, where the possibility of cargo theft exists, or when the shipper and receiver have a less than trusting relationship, payment can be made during the trader’s inbound flight or after landing. The receiver may try to abuse this arrangement to cheat the ship. Let’s say the ship has just landed on a class D starport, tech 4 world. The agent comes onboard, says the receiver has wired payment to the ship’s account at the port, and asks the captain when the ship will be ready to discharge. A phone has not been connected (so sorry the agent says, but phone service is not working in the port today). The captain wants to discharge quickly, so he can arrange the quickest outbound cargo he can and spend the minimum time necessary on this planet, but he doesn’t want to get cheated. The agent suggests starting the cargo discharge while the captain walks to the port authority office and confirms payment. It is only a five minute walk, so the captain agrees. He walks over to the port authority with the wire transfer number. After about twenty minutes, the cashier at the Port authority apologizes, but says she can’t find a wire transfer with that number anywhere. Realizing he’s being cheated, he comms the ship and tells the First Officer to close the hatches. She does, but by this time, the stevedores have already unloaded forty tons of the sixty ton cargo. At first, the agent tries to bluster. The captain stands firm and the agent goes to contact the receiver “to straighten this mess out”. The receiver now has to make a decision. Depending on the value of the remaining twenty tons of cargo, the receiver may just walk away from it, figuring that free shipping for the forty tons he got makes up for losing the remaining twenty. If corruption is rife on the planet, he may bribe the authorities to place a detention on the ship for `defrauding him of his cargo’. Or the receiver may authorize the payment, give the agent a valid wire transfer number and send him back to the ship with a simple cover story (like, “my idiot of a secretary copied the number down wrong”). The ruse cost the receiver nothing, and was worth a try.
Delay and Demurrage
A freight contract will fix the amount of time allowed for loading and discharge. For ships under 1000tons, this is normally three days. Non-working days may or may not count, depending on the contract. The shipper or receiver (normally the receiver since most delays happen on that end) is responsible for compensating the ship for any time needed in excess of that allowed in the contract at the ship’s time charter rate, pro-rated daily. This is called demurrage. For example, a ship lands on a given planet with forty tons of freight electronic parts. The stevedores arrive the afternoon the ship lands, but as they are setting up their gear, a 200kph wind storm hits. Unable to maneuver the grav lifters and shipping containers in the powerful winds, the stevedores cease operations. The storm lasts four days. The fifth day, the winds abate and the stevedores offload the ship. As three days were allotted in the shipping contract, but discharging technically took over four full days, the receiver owes the ship almost 5,000Cr (charter value/30 for the extra day). Whether or not the receiver actually pays (after all, he already has his cargo) depends on the law level of the world and whether or not he thinks the ship will be able to collect. On some worlds, the legal fees to bring such a suit would quickly exceed the value to be collected. The ship may simply have to eat the lost time.
Fixing New Cargos
Freight cargos will take 0-3 days to arrange for delivery once the ship agrees to the contract. This reflects that the cargo may not be sitting in the starport warehouse, but may be coming from halfway around the planet to be loaded. Speculative cargoes tend to be nearby, so will only take 0-2 days for delivery. After that, the cargos still have to be loaded. Once the cargo arrives at the port, any warehousing costs due delay in loading caused by the ship not being ready to receive is chargeable to the ship. Short-term warehousing costs may vary from 5-20Cr per ton per day. In the demurrage example in the above paragraph, the ship would not be liable for warehousing costs of inbound cargo as the delay is caused by weather, not the ship. Cases where the ship may be held responsible for delay include: crew in jail, crew not onboard, ship impounded, cargo hatches broken or damaged, and annual maintenance.
Once the ship is ready to begin loading, the cycle begins again.
A well run merchant campaign will give the players the feeling they will have worked for their gains, rather than simply rolling dice and collecting credits. What I have posted is not meant to be the final answer to Traveller shipping economics, but hopefully serves as a source of ideas for referee's looking to run a merchant campaign. I used the information in my last four posts to great success in what was easily the longest running, and by far the most enjoyable, Traveller campaign I ran. By the end of the seven year campaign, the player characters had eventually accumulated a fair amount of wealth, but they all felt they had earned it.
For anyone looking to run a merchant campaign and is searching for background info, I heartily recommend, in order: Deadweight by Max Hardberger (out of print, may be hard to find), Freighter Captain also by Max Hardberger (available through Amazon), the Shipmaster's Handbook on ship's Business (expensive), Marine Cargo Operations (also expensive), and the Chanur novels by C.J Cherryh for inspiration.
Hope it is of some use.
The Phases
1. Off Hire
2. Cargo Loading
3. Passenger Embarkation and Clear Port
4. Transit to Jump
5. Jump
6. Transit to Port
7. Land, Clear Customs
8. Discharge Cargo
9. Repeat
Off Hire
After the vessel completes a voyage charter (freight contract) until she begins her next cycle, she is technically off hire. A profit minded group will attempt to keep this time as short as possible, but the vagaries of fixing hires, finding passengers, performing routine maintenance, and adventuring may contribute, or at least fill, the time between cargoes. Except for the adventuring part, this not the riskiest period in the ship’s cycle.
Cargo Loading
The heart of trading operations lies in cargo handling. Except for unusual circumstances, ship’s crews do not load or unload cargo for many reasons. First, it is probably against the law if the planet has a stevedore’s union. Second, most ships can’t spare the manpower (sophontpower?). Thirdly, and by far most importantly, it is not in the ship’s interests to do so. Stevedores are paid by the charterer/shipper, and any damage or delay incurred by the stevedores is the responsibility of the charterer and not the ship. Even if the ship and not the stevedores are the proximate cause, the crew can often confuse the issue enough to convince the shipper that the stevedores may have caused the damage. If the crew is doing the work, then all responsibility for any damage will devolve back to the ship.
The Stevedores
A stevedore can move tech level squared tons of cargo per man per work hour. For example, two tech level seven stevedores, working hard, with forklifts or pallet jacks can empty a Type A Free Trader’s hold in a little over an hour. It would take a gang of ten tech level 1 stevedores at least an entire day (over eight work hours) to accomplish the same job. What constitutes a work day and working hours is variable from planet to planet. Additionally, stevedores will generally not work at full efficiency. Fifty to seventy five percent efficiency is more common. Since stevedores typically get paid by the hour, or on some planets are salaried government employees, they do not have any incentive to work full speed.
A crewmember should be present for all cargo operations to prevent, or at least witness, stevedore damage to the ship or ship’s gear, stevedore damage to the cargo, stevedore theft of ship’s equipment, and to ensure all cargo is properly loaded and secured for space.
A trader’s drives may be her heart, but the hold is the money-maker. After decades of being banged into by grav pallets, enduring extreme changes in temperature and humidity between space and re-entry, and having various chemicals and substances poured, dropped, slammed, or leaked into her, it is to be expected that the hold would be somewhat beat-up. A stevedore slowing a grav pallet late, letting the load slam into the bulkhead (weakening it and possibly causing a small fuel leak), a front end loader clipping a hydraulic piston for the loading ramp (breaking it and causing a hydraulic leak), a forklift knocking the overhead sprinklers (separating the head and causing a mini-rainstorm in the hold), or a stevedore grazing the airlock door while carrying something sharp (cutting the gasket so the door won’t seal properly), are everyday examples of how the the ship can sustain damage during loading and rack up minor (or major) expenses.
Stevedore damage to the cargo may be caused by carelessness or incompetence, or it may be willful. Consider a ship loading a mixed cargo of palletized metal ingots (7-11 cubic feet per ton, depending on the metal) and cases of Hava-cola. A forklift driver sets a pallet of ingots on top of a pallet of cola and voila! – a big mess in the hold and a big delay in loading until the shipper’s agent arrives and surveys the damage (note: if it is speculative cargo hope the players have bought insurance). Then another delay as the crushed cola is unloaded and the deck cleaned before loading operations can re-commence.
On poor or corrupt worlds, the stevedores should be expected to try to steal items from the cargo or the ship. If they steal from the cargo, it is not normally a problem for the ship unless the master signs the Bills of Lading `Clean” (meaning the ship accepts responsibility for inspecting the cargo for completeness and quality). On many ship classes, the cargo hold is not far from the ship’s locker, the drive rooms, crew accommodations, or other spaces, which may contain valuables. If given the opportunity, ship’s items could “walk”.
Although stevedores are technically responsible to ensure the cargo is properly loaded and secured, it should be checked by a member of the crew. If cargo shifts or breaks loose in space or atmospheric re-entry, it is not the stevedores who will be endangered, it is the crewmembers. Likewise, an unsecured 10ton cargo container or bundle of steel rods won’t be punching a hole in the stevedore’s house, they’ll be punching a hole in the side of the ship.
The Cargo Surveyor and the Supercargo
Most shippers will rely on the ship’s certificates as a guideline for the condition of the ship, but charter parties (freight contracts) for valuable, perishable, or fragile cargo invariably include clauses allowing the shipper to have a cargo surveyor inspect the hold before loading and to place a supercargo on the ship for the duration the cargo is on board. If the cargo surveyor rejects the ship, then the ship may have to scramble for a new cargo. IMTU cargo surveyors are quite common, but supercargoes less so. The supercargo travels free, but must pay his life support.
Take two instances of cargo damage as examples. In the first, an aging free trader lifts off with fifty tons of Château Regina 1094 champagne onboard. At 300 bottles per ton (allowing a healthy amount of packing), 100CR per bottle, the bubbly is worth 30,000Cr per ton. As the ship leaves the atmosphere, it becomes apparent the loading ramp did not completely seal. The crew stabilizes the pressure at 0.5atm, but by that time all the stoppers have popped, ruining the 1.5MCr cargo. The ship is responsible for the loss. Of course, the shipper won’t have to collect himself, his insurance company will pay him, then their legions of high-powered attorneys will come after the ship. Another example, the ship loads fifty tons of coffee valued at, say, 3000Cr per ton. The ship leaves the atmosphere and begins transit to jump point. In the hold, the temperature drops from tropical humid 40C to shipboard comfortable 20C. Unbeknownst to the crew, the tainted atmosphere of the planet has clogged the life support’s moisture removal filter. The humidity condenses in the hold. By the time the ship lands eight days later, the entire cargo has been ruined by mildew. In both cases, routine maintenance and a thorough pre-flight inspection could have found and prevented the damage. However, if the crew was distracted, say by hurrying off planet during a firefight (not that PCs have ever done that), then, well, tough break.
The referee can roleplay cargo risk or assign a cargo vulnerability number. The number should range from zero for the most fragile cargoes (virgin skymelons too sensitive to be touched by human hands) to four (scrap steel, impossible to damage short of jettisoning it into a star). A single die is rolled, adjusted by the cargo vulnerability number. If the adjusted roll is less than the ship’s material condition, then the cargo has sustained damage during the trip. The exact extent and nature of the damage is left to the referee.
Speculative Cargo
Although often ignored, insurance, stevedoring (20-50Cr per ton for each loading or unloading), and customs duties on speculative cargo must all be payed by the players. Stevedore cargo damage to speculative cargo may be paid by the insurance (if any), but the legal hassle of trying to prove the ship was not at fault for the damage is often not worth the effort. Unless the characters want to spend days visiting distributors and retailers on the destination world trying to sell cargo themselves, all speculative cargos will be sold through cargo brokers.
Clearing Port
Passengers typically embark a few hours before departure. Although the crew has no legal authority to search them, passengers attempting to smuggle, either in their luggage or on their persons, can present problems for the ship. If the authorities decide to conduct a departure inspection, any contraband found may result in delays as the passenger is either fined or arrested and perhaps a wider search of the ship itself is conducted. If contraband is found during that search, the penalties may range from delay and fines, to detention, to imprisonment for the crew and seizure of the ship.
Before a ship can leave port, she must have no outstanding accounts, including port costs. I find the port costs listed in Book 2 to be far too low. I roll once, per Book 2, but instead of making the result the weekly charge, I make a note of it and call it the day rate for the port.
Jump
Probably the safest time in the cycle for player characters, the major risks are breakdown and passenger problems.
Transit to Port
Piracy, space disaster, and micro-meteor strikes may all distract a crew from reporting arrival to port control, contacting the receiving agent, and contacting brokers to inform them of the ship’s arrival. The longer a ship delays in informing the receiving agent and the cargo brokers on the planet, the longer the delay will be until unloading commences and the fewer cargo offers the ship will receive.
Landing and the Port
Terrestrial weather may also prove problematic. A hurricane, volcanic eruption, or other similarly violent "Act of God" may require the ship to delay landing or make a piloting roll to land safely. Depending on the region and nature of your campaign, various characters may be detained on board or have to arrange and pay for entry visas to leave the ship/port. Depending on the port and the local law level, clearing customs may range from non-existent to time-consuming and expensive.
Class A, B, and C starports will generally have traffic control, a portmaster and agents to arrange power, communications, chandler’s services,, and garbage disposal for the ship, established cargo brokerages, and space supply stores for routine maintenance or repair supplies. In addition, local authorities will have established procedures for arrival inspections, customs, and passenger debarkation.
Class D starports will lack some or all of the above services. At least one agent should be present, but some of the services normally provided by agents may not be (power or landline communications for example).
Class E starports will have no services. Customs, law enforcement, or military inspections may be irregular, unannounced, or simply not happen. The port may have no established perimeter and no security, allowing people to simply walk up to the ship. The crew may have to search for the receiver themselves, if the receiver did not see the ship land. Picture a low-tech world with a Class E starport. Ship’s crews dispose of shipboard garbage by dumping it out the engineering airlock, where a small crowd of locals have gathered to pick through it for anything valuable. If an entrance is left open or unguarded, locals swarm through it grabbing for anything not nailed down. Prostitutes bang on the ship’s hatches soliciting business. A sophont in uniform is a sophont seeking a bribe. God help the ship that breaks down here, because machine shops don’t exist and parts are nearly impossible to find. Nasty places, but good for tramp adventures.
Cargo Discharge
Having made contact with the receiving agent, the ship lands and clears customs. The agent arrives, arranges ground transportation for the crew, ensures port services are connected, and asks the captain when the ship will be ready to discharge cargo. Depending on the time of day, discharge could begin immediately or it could begin the next working day (which could be tomorrow, could be after the three-day weekend, or could be next week if the ship had the misfortune to arrive during a prolonged holiday). At any rate, the ship’s captain will want to verify receipt of payment before opening the hold. Typically, for freight, the charter payment is made after the ship is loaded or when she is enroute to jump point. In dangerous areas, where the possibility of cargo theft exists, or when the shipper and receiver have a less than trusting relationship, payment can be made during the trader’s inbound flight or after landing. The receiver may try to abuse this arrangement to cheat the ship. Let’s say the ship has just landed on a class D starport, tech 4 world. The agent comes onboard, says the receiver has wired payment to the ship’s account at the port, and asks the captain when the ship will be ready to discharge. A phone has not been connected (so sorry the agent says, but phone service is not working in the port today). The captain wants to discharge quickly, so he can arrange the quickest outbound cargo he can and spend the minimum time necessary on this planet, but he doesn’t want to get cheated. The agent suggests starting the cargo discharge while the captain walks to the port authority office and confirms payment. It is only a five minute walk, so the captain agrees. He walks over to the port authority with the wire transfer number. After about twenty minutes, the cashier at the Port authority apologizes, but says she can’t find a wire transfer with that number anywhere. Realizing he’s being cheated, he comms the ship and tells the First Officer to close the hatches. She does, but by this time, the stevedores have already unloaded forty tons of the sixty ton cargo. At first, the agent tries to bluster. The captain stands firm and the agent goes to contact the receiver “to straighten this mess out”. The receiver now has to make a decision. Depending on the value of the remaining twenty tons of cargo, the receiver may just walk away from it, figuring that free shipping for the forty tons he got makes up for losing the remaining twenty. If corruption is rife on the planet, he may bribe the authorities to place a detention on the ship for `defrauding him of his cargo’. Or the receiver may authorize the payment, give the agent a valid wire transfer number and send him back to the ship with a simple cover story (like, “my idiot of a secretary copied the number down wrong”). The ruse cost the receiver nothing, and was worth a try.
Delay and Demurrage
A freight contract will fix the amount of time allowed for loading and discharge. For ships under 1000tons, this is normally three days. Non-working days may or may not count, depending on the contract. The shipper or receiver (normally the receiver since most delays happen on that end) is responsible for compensating the ship for any time needed in excess of that allowed in the contract at the ship’s time charter rate, pro-rated daily. This is called demurrage. For example, a ship lands on a given planet with forty tons of freight electronic parts. The stevedores arrive the afternoon the ship lands, but as they are setting up their gear, a 200kph wind storm hits. Unable to maneuver the grav lifters and shipping containers in the powerful winds, the stevedores cease operations. The storm lasts four days. The fifth day, the winds abate and the stevedores offload the ship. As three days were allotted in the shipping contract, but discharging technically took over four full days, the receiver owes the ship almost 5,000Cr (charter value/30 for the extra day). Whether or not the receiver actually pays (after all, he already has his cargo) depends on the law level of the world and whether or not he thinks the ship will be able to collect. On some worlds, the legal fees to bring such a suit would quickly exceed the value to be collected. The ship may simply have to eat the lost time.
Fixing New Cargos
Freight cargos will take 0-3 days to arrange for delivery once the ship agrees to the contract. This reflects that the cargo may not be sitting in the starport warehouse, but may be coming from halfway around the planet to be loaded. Speculative cargoes tend to be nearby, so will only take 0-2 days for delivery. After that, the cargos still have to be loaded. Once the cargo arrives at the port, any warehousing costs due delay in loading caused by the ship not being ready to receive is chargeable to the ship. Short-term warehousing costs may vary from 5-20Cr per ton per day. In the demurrage example in the above paragraph, the ship would not be liable for warehousing costs of inbound cargo as the delay is caused by weather, not the ship. Cases where the ship may be held responsible for delay include: crew in jail, crew not onboard, ship impounded, cargo hatches broken or damaged, and annual maintenance.
Once the ship is ready to begin loading, the cycle begins again.
A well run merchant campaign will give the players the feeling they will have worked for their gains, rather than simply rolling dice and collecting credits. What I have posted is not meant to be the final answer to Traveller shipping economics, but hopefully serves as a source of ideas for referee's looking to run a merchant campaign. I used the information in my last four posts to great success in what was easily the longest running, and by far the most enjoyable, Traveller campaign I ran. By the end of the seven year campaign, the player characters had eventually accumulated a fair amount of wealth, but they all felt they had earned it.
For anyone looking to run a merchant campaign and is searching for background info, I heartily recommend, in order: Deadweight by Max Hardberger (out of print, may be hard to find), Freighter Captain also by Max Hardberger (available through Amazon), the Shipmaster's Handbook on ship's Business (expensive), Marine Cargo Operations (also expensive), and the Chanur novels by C.J Cherryh for inspiration.
Hope it is of some use.
tbeard1999
SOC-14 1K
Indeed it is. Good stuff. Unfortunately, the Max Hardberger books are out of print. I'd love to get my hands on copies of them...
--Ty
Ty,
Sorry, I knew Deadweight was OOP, but I didn't realize Freighter Captain was too. A shame. They were printed by Palm Island Press. I don't know if they're still operating, but it may be worth a phone call:
Palm Island Press
Address: 411 Truman Ave.
Key West, FL 33040
Contact: Michael Keith
Phone: (305)294-7834
Actually, scratch that. I just checked the website for Bluewater Books, www.bluewaterweb.com They list both both Deadweight ($25) and Freighter Captain ($9) as in stock.
edited to fix the link.
Sorry, I knew Deadweight was OOP, but I didn't realize Freighter Captain was too. A shame. They were printed by Palm Island Press. I don't know if they're still operating, but it may be worth a phone call:
Palm Island Press
Address: 411 Truman Ave.
Key West, FL 33040
Contact: Michael Keith
Phone: (305)294-7834
Actually, scratch that. I just checked the website for Bluewater Books, www.bluewaterweb.com They list both both Deadweight ($25) and Freighter Captain ($9) as in stock.
edited to fix the link.
tbeard1999
SOC-14 1K
Thanks; I just ordered them. You seem awfully familiar with merchant operations. Do you do that in the real world?Originally posted by OIT:
Ty,
Sorry, I knew Deadweight was OOP, but I didn't realize Freighter Captain was too. A shame. They were printed by Palm Island Press. I don't know if they're still operating, but it may be worth a phone call:
Palm Island Press
Address: 411 Truman Ave.
Key West, FL 33040
Contact: Michael Keith
Phone: (305)294-7834
Actually, scratch that. I just checked the website for Bluewater Books, www.bluewaterweb.com They list both both Deadweight ($25) and Freighter Captain ($9) as in stock.
edited to fix the link.
--Ty
WARNING: RAMBLING AND LONG
Lines: Shipping line vessels MUST use speculation in order to meet a replacement schedule based upon the nominal expected life of an in-service frieghter; to wit, 40 years. (Exception: Type R's on nominal routes). It's a far closer deal, and so less risk need be taken, and one can be far pickier about what one carries...
One finances so that income provides a profit.
We can infer that at least 50% of ships are still in service at 40 years by the fact that at book rates, 40% is minor stuff (but on par with the estimated 0.5% Annual Inflation rate, compounded, pretty close to the 22.08% lifetime inflation/interest indicated; interest making almost twice inflation. (note: Not my estimate... someone on the TML made a convincing argument back in 1995 or so....) So, in order to pay for itself, one must be able to replace 80% of a ship with payments from another ship. So the real profit is that ships more than make 50% to 40 years...
Really, it could be longer with little problem, but that shifts it further. IMTU, I assume a "Half-life" of shipping of 30 Years. (Details see below.)
So, if we assume a line needs to replace a ship every 40 years, on average, (a serious stretch from the above; it implies a lot of maths I can't recall how to do properly), a payoff purchase value in 40 years needs to be the margin; of the canon vessels, only the Type R can do this without specific EXCELLENT routes, which are not supported by the encounter tables. (Of which encounter tables' being broken, well, it's a safe bet... but this is purely a Bk2 extrapolation...)
AS for 1-in-6 routing to an In: The same In can be a hub on a hub-and-star routing. Probably the best way to do it, even... There are several 3-10 world routings in the Spinward Main which result in such routes. It's not a given, but it is possible, and I've never approved a route that didn't have at least 1-in-6 jumps between an advantaged pair... specifically because such a pair allows payoff. Ag-In isn't the only such pairing, but is the most obvious (and most profitable)
It is ironic... the freighter which is canonically the staple of subsidy is the only one that doesn't NEED spec for financing; on subsidy routes, it's paying off in half the time. Which tells us those routes are probably running a 50% break of about 30 years, rather than 40...
Even reducing the top bracket by a factor of 10 (I only have the BoJTAS 1-4, and don't recall any errata in them about Bk2 T&C), the potential to make millions of Cr on a single jump, and hence make the payments, simply by use of Brokers +3, is a powerful feature; the net 6 differential is well worth it. Heck, if one rolled low, and got a 30% buy, one need not even spend as much on the sale broker to insure multi-hundred-KCr profits.
It doesn't break the model to drop those a factor of 10; it does reduce the "One-good-deal pays the ship off" factor, tho. Anything worth KCr10 or more that one can leverage -4 buy and +4 sale net mods will pay off handsomely more than 95% of the time... it is a function of the AVT, not the goods themselves; most goods on the table qualify. (Far more in T20...)
For any merchant, empty space is a waste; if one has unfilled space, and can leverage a -4B+4S combo, even grain is better than empty. In fact, that is about the only non-demand reason to carry grain! (And, at best case, grain can go from 390B/960S (Cr570/ton profit), which is a sure sight better. (This includes Brokers +4, plus 10% to split the lot to fill out only the available space. It isn't worth shipping grain on spec, if one can fill the space any paying way. So grain is probably moved mostly by Type R's looking to fill out, rather than noon-emergency demand. (Tis also part of why I assume near-independence of worlds from food trade in staples... it moves only with known purchase or nothing better to do with the space. Under T20, there is usually SOMETHING better to move...)
ANyway, back to lines: lines have two advantages: given a two-world route (short enough for "Stationing crew"; comparable to the way North Slope workers work), one has a few people stationed at either end, plus the crew's home port. Let us assume (as is implied slightly but never strongly in Bk2 that it is one roll per person searching, not one roll per ship) that each broker can find and purchase a spec cargo each week. Two brokers on planet saves you half the costs of the broker less their salary. Each has three weeks to find lots.... Week jumping away, week in other system, and week jumping in... we'll assume selling the incoming takes the fourth week. These lots then get "purchased" by the ship, and the lots aboard are sold, and the ship gets "paid". (Truth is, the outgoing isn't paid, nor is the incoming paid for. The outgoing is purchased from the speculation pool, the incoming is sold, and the SpecPool repaid for from the proceeds, the corporate share calculated and forwarded elsewhere, the brokerage salary slice taken, and the ship handed bonus plus operational expenses, if those are not handled directly by the Line's Brokerage office).
Now, home ports are likely to be In worlds... because having an Ag world feed to/from an In world is a happy thing. This also means the ship can be part of a star with other ships, and see more worlds, and prevent particular crews from killing a leg by mistreatment of goods/passengers/locals... Only on the In "Hub" is it worthy to make them behave; home-porting there, and encouraging local spouses (be they locals married in, or spouses moved there as dependents) one maximizes chances of good behavior.
Multiple-jump viability:Now, for anything worth KCr 25+, it's profitable to keep it for a second jump if that makes the Ag-In or In-Ag bonuses kick-in. At KCr 40+, it's still better than haulage to do it over 3 jumps.
Peter Newman did the math on that; I followed it, but don't remember it. He convinced my players; with him running the ship's purser, the party upgraded ships REGULARLY. (One group got to running a squadron of 3 Type A's, a Type R, and three type T's, and paying for a no-cargo Gazelle as "Escort." )
Heck, with spec, a used Type T is quite capable of profits, and hard to pounce... But often it is two or three weeks down, to make a second roll under Bk2 strict, to assure a cargo of sufficient value. (T20 allowing specifically one roll per searching broker or person with broker, and choices of cargo per such searcher, grain and ores become almost impossible to get moved by spec, even for Type R's on sub-par routes.
As to Type R's on sub-par routes: Yup... take an otherwise viable design, and put it places where even it can't make a decent profit by haulage...
Half-life of SHipping: I make the assumption that the hallf life is about 20 years. after 40 years, only 1/4th of ships are still operating; at 20 years.
Years/Percentage of replacement unmet, using 13 payments/year.
10 25.833333333
20 -28.333333333
30 -82.5
40 -87.916666667
So, if we assume losing one qat each break point, we still get a HUGE payoff; 120% above investment at 40 years over four ships. (Break-even is 15 years ship by ship... break-even with 0.5% annual inflation is 19 years. For 12 payments per year, it's 16 years break even, 21 for break even with inflation.
[small]
</font><blockquote>code:</font><hr /><pre style="font-size:x-small; font-family: monospace;"> ------ 12pymt ------ ------ 13 pymt ------
%made N Loss(?N*%m) %made N Loss(?N*%m)
0 80 40 0 80 40 0
1 75 38.91 82.04 74.58 38.64 101.62
2 70 37.84 74.47 69.17 37.32 91.03
3 65 36.81 67.26 63.75 36.05 81.05
4 60 35.8 60.39 58.33 34.82 71.63
5 55 34.82 53.84 52.92 33.64 62.77
6 50 33.87 47.61 47.5 32.49 54.42
7 45 32.94 41.68 42.08 31.38 46.57
8 40 32.04 36.03 36.67 30.31 39.2
9 35 31.17 30.67 31.25 29.28 32.27
10 30 30.31 25.57 25.83 28.28 25.77
11 25 29.49 20.72 20.42 27.32 19.67
12 20 28.68 16.13 15 26.39 13.96
13 15 27.89 11.76 9.58 25.49 8.61
14 10 27.13 7.63 4.17 24.62 3.62
15 5 26.39 3.71 -1.25 23.78 -1.05
16 0 25.67 0 -6.67 22.97 -5.4
17 -5 24.97 -3.51 -12.08 22.19 -9.46
18 -10 24.28 -6.83 -17.5 21.44 -13.23
19 -15 23.62 -9.96 -22.92 20.71 -16.73
20 -20 22.97 -12.92 -28.33 20 -19.98
21 -25 22.35 -15.71 -33.75 19.32 -22.99
22 -30 21.73 -18.33 -39.17 18.66 -25.77
23 -35 21.14 -20.8 -44.58 18.03 -28.34
24 -40 20.56 -23.12 -50 17.41 -30.7
25 -45 20 -25.3 -55.42 16.82 -32.87
26 -50 19.45 -27.35 -60.83 16.25 -34.85
27 -55 18.92 -29.26 -66.25 15.69 -36.66
28 -60 18.4 -31.04 -71.67 15.16 -38.31
29 -65 17.9 -32.71 -77.08 14.64 -39.8
30 -70 17.41 -34.26 -82.5 14.14 -41.14
31 -75 16.93 -35.71 -87.92 13.66 -42.35
32 -80 16.47 -37.05 -93.33 13.2 -43.43
33 -85 16.02 -38.29 -98.75 12.75 -44.39
34 -90 15.58 -39.43 -104.17 12.31 -45.23
35 -95 15.16 -40.48 -109.58 11.89 -45.96
36 -100 14.74 -41.45 -115 11.49 -46.59
37 -105 14.34 -42.33 -120.42 11.1 -47.12
38 -110 13.95 -43.13 -125.83 10.72 -47.56
39 -115 13.57 -43.86 -131.25 10.35 -47.92
40 -120 13.2 -44.52 -136.67 10 -48.2
-117.83 0 0 -203.81</pre>[/QUOTE](the funky character is a Delta...)
What this shows is that, based upon 13 payments per year, and a half-life of 20 years, the mortgage company still makes a profit of 203.81% of the base vessel. Not much, but long term sustainable in an inflation-free imperium
Based upon 12 payments, and doubling time 25 years, one can afford at the end to finance 41 ships from an initial investment of 40. At 30 years, we get the following table with 13 payments (MTU):
</font><blockquote>code:</font><hr /><pre style="font-size:x-small; font-family: monospace;"> ------ 13 pymt ------
%made N Loss(?N*%m)
0 80 40 0
1 74.58 39.09 68.14
2 69.17 38.19 61.75
3 63.75 37.32 55.61
4 58.33 36.47 49.72
5 52.92 35.64 44.08
6 47.5 34.82 38.66
7 42.08 34.03 33.47
8 36.67 33.25 28.5
9 31.25 32.49 23.73
10 25.83 31.75 19.17
11 20.42 31.02 14.8
12 15 30.31 10.63
13 9.58 29.62 6.64
14 4.17 28.95 2.82
15 -1.25 28.28 -0.83
16 -6.67 27.64 -4.31
17 -12.08 27.01 -7.63
18 -17.5 26.39 -10.79
19 -22.92 25.79 -13.81
20 -28.33 25.2 -16.69
21 -33.75 24.62 -19.42
22 -39.17 24.06 -22.03
23 -44.58 23.51 -24.5
24 -50 22.97 -26.85
25 -55.42 22.45 -29.08
26 -60.83 21.94 -31.19
27 -66.25 21.44 -33.19
28 -71.67 20.95 -35.09
29 -77.08 20.47 -36.88
30 -82.5 20 -38.57
31 -87.92 19.54 -40.16
32 -93.33 19.1 -41.66
33 -98.75 18.66 -43.07
34 -104.17 18.23 -44.4
35 -109.58 17.82 -45.64
36 -115 17.41 -46.8
37 -120.42 17.01 -47.89
38 -125.83 16.62 -48.9
39 -131.25 16.25 -49.84
40 -136.67 15.87 -50.71
0 0 -352.19</pre>[/QUOTE]one is able to finance 43.52 from 40...
With 40 years Half-life, and 12 payments, one gets -221% BSV on 40 vessels.
With 40 years Half-life, and 13 payments, one gets -373% BSV on 40 vessels.
With 50 years Half-life, and 12 payments, one gets -227% BSV on 40 vessels.
With 50 years Half-life, and 13 payments, one gets -359% BSV on 40 vessels.
BSV= base ship value of ONE ship
This really low return is why, IMTU, ship loans are usually IMoT...
Sicne the numbers are not significantly better at 35-30 years, I tend to keep down to that level (matches the risk in play, IMTU, pretty well...).
If one can, however, bend the curve so that the half-life is say, 100 years for the first forty, then 10 after that, one can make far more on the standard loan terms.
opinions
Why offer subsidies? Because a subsidy can, IF THE SHIP SPECULATES WELL, pay far better than a normal run to the financier. (This is vastly more true in T20...) If banks are involved, it will probably be a subsidy, IMTU, due to the profit potential.
Why rigid routes? Only for ships with a business plan that provides a strong profit EVERY JUMP or two...
To my mind, T20 solves most of CT's problems...
and speculation drives the system, with haulage being for most the point where less than 1/2 of ships pay the bills. (Since, IMTU, only 40% of ships make it to 40 years...)
Of course, MTU is a nasty MT rules, CT/PT setting, T20 Trade, T4 Psionics Rules mishmash...
If one doesn't fixate on "Orders must be the basis of trade-flows" then speculation can be the prime mover... it's not the majority of flow in volume, but definitely works with the Bk2 setting to be the primary mode of paying the bills... hence, driving the system. WIthout it, all cargo ships are Type R or close to it. Perhaps an R2... but the breakpoints are Bridge Min Volume, and the badly broken Bk2 PP Fuel rates, which make 200Td ships unable to break even under payments. (On a Type A, Dropping minimum bridge to 5Td opens 15x26xCr1000=375,000 per year, and fixing the fuel rate to 0.01HPn gives another KCr208, while reducing fuel costs by KCr52 per year...)
Lines: Shipping line vessels MUST use speculation in order to meet a replacement schedule based upon the nominal expected life of an in-service frieghter; to wit, 40 years. (Exception: Type R's on nominal routes). It's a far closer deal, and so less risk need be taken, and one can be far pickier about what one carries...
One finances so that income provides a profit.
We can infer that at least 50% of ships are still in service at 40 years by the fact that at book rates, 40% is minor stuff (but on par with the estimated 0.5% Annual Inflation rate, compounded, pretty close to the 22.08% lifetime inflation/interest indicated; interest making almost twice inflation. (note: Not my estimate... someone on the TML made a convincing argument back in 1995 or so....) So, in order to pay for itself, one must be able to replace 80% of a ship with payments from another ship. So the real profit is that ships more than make 50% to 40 years...
Really, it could be longer with little problem, but that shifts it further. IMTU, I assume a "Half-life" of shipping of 30 Years. (Details see below.)
So, if we assume a line needs to replace a ship every 40 years, on average, (a serious stretch from the above; it implies a lot of maths I can't recall how to do properly), a payoff purchase value in 40 years needs to be the margin; of the canon vessels, only the Type R can do this without specific EXCELLENT routes, which are not supported by the encounter tables. (Of which encounter tables' being broken, well, it's a safe bet... but this is purely a Bk2 extrapolation...)
AS for 1-in-6 routing to an In: The same In can be a hub on a hub-and-star routing. Probably the best way to do it, even... There are several 3-10 world routings in the Spinward Main which result in such routes. It's not a given, but it is possible, and I've never approved a route that didn't have at least 1-in-6 jumps between an advantaged pair... specifically because such a pair allows payoff. Ag-In isn't the only such pairing, but is the most obvious (and most profitable)
It is ironic... the freighter which is canonically the staple of subsidy is the only one that doesn't NEED spec for financing; on subsidy routes, it's paying off in half the time. Which tells us those routes are probably running a 50% break of about 30 years, rather than 40...
Even reducing the top bracket by a factor of 10 (I only have the BoJTAS 1-4, and don't recall any errata in them about Bk2 T&C), the potential to make millions of Cr on a single jump, and hence make the payments, simply by use of Brokers +3, is a powerful feature; the net 6 differential is well worth it. Heck, if one rolled low, and got a 30% buy, one need not even spend as much on the sale broker to insure multi-hundred-KCr profits.
It doesn't break the model to drop those a factor of 10; it does reduce the "One-good-deal pays the ship off" factor, tho. Anything worth KCr10 or more that one can leverage -4 buy and +4 sale net mods will pay off handsomely more than 95% of the time... it is a function of the AVT, not the goods themselves; most goods on the table qualify. (Far more in T20...)
For any merchant, empty space is a waste; if one has unfilled space, and can leverage a -4B+4S combo, even grain is better than empty. In fact, that is about the only non-demand reason to carry grain! (And, at best case, grain can go from 390B/960S (Cr570/ton profit), which is a sure sight better. (This includes Brokers +4, plus 10% to split the lot to fill out only the available space. It isn't worth shipping grain on spec, if one can fill the space any paying way. So grain is probably moved mostly by Type R's looking to fill out, rather than noon-emergency demand. (Tis also part of why I assume near-independence of worlds from food trade in staples... it moves only with known purchase or nothing better to do with the space. Under T20, there is usually SOMETHING better to move...)
ANyway, back to lines: lines have two advantages: given a two-world route (short enough for "Stationing crew"; comparable to the way North Slope workers work), one has a few people stationed at either end, plus the crew's home port. Let us assume (as is implied slightly but never strongly in Bk2 that it is one roll per person searching, not one roll per ship) that each broker can find and purchase a spec cargo each week. Two brokers on planet saves you half the costs of the broker less their salary. Each has three weeks to find lots.... Week jumping away, week in other system, and week jumping in... we'll assume selling the incoming takes the fourth week. These lots then get "purchased" by the ship, and the lots aboard are sold, and the ship gets "paid". (Truth is, the outgoing isn't paid, nor is the incoming paid for. The outgoing is purchased from the speculation pool, the incoming is sold, and the SpecPool repaid for from the proceeds, the corporate share calculated and forwarded elsewhere, the brokerage salary slice taken, and the ship handed bonus plus operational expenses, if those are not handled directly by the Line's Brokerage office).
Now, home ports are likely to be In worlds... because having an Ag world feed to/from an In world is a happy thing. This also means the ship can be part of a star with other ships, and see more worlds, and prevent particular crews from killing a leg by mistreatment of goods/passengers/locals... Only on the In "Hub" is it worthy to make them behave; home-porting there, and encouraging local spouses (be they locals married in, or spouses moved there as dependents) one maximizes chances of good behavior.
Multiple-jump viability:Now, for anything worth KCr 25+, it's profitable to keep it for a second jump if that makes the Ag-In or In-Ag bonuses kick-in. At KCr 40+, it's still better than haulage to do it over 3 jumps.
Peter Newman did the math on that; I followed it, but don't remember it. He convinced my players; with him running the ship's purser, the party upgraded ships REGULARLY. (One group got to running a squadron of 3 Type A's, a Type R, and three type T's, and paying for a no-cargo Gazelle as "Escort." )
Heck, with spec, a used Type T is quite capable of profits, and hard to pounce... But often it is two or three weeks down, to make a second roll under Bk2 strict, to assure a cargo of sufficient value. (T20 allowing specifically one roll per searching broker or person with broker, and choices of cargo per such searcher, grain and ores become almost impossible to get moved by spec, even for Type R's on sub-par routes.
As to Type R's on sub-par routes: Yup... take an otherwise viable design, and put it places where even it can't make a decent profit by haulage...
Half-life of SHipping: I make the assumption that the hallf life is about 20 years. after 40 years, only 1/4th of ships are still operating; at 20 years.
Years/Percentage of replacement unmet, using 13 payments/year.
10 25.833333333
20 -28.333333333
30 -82.5
40 -87.916666667
So, if we assume losing one qat each break point, we still get a HUGE payoff; 120% above investment at 40 years over four ships. (Break-even is 15 years ship by ship... break-even with 0.5% annual inflation is 19 years. For 12 payments per year, it's 16 years break even, 21 for break even with inflation.
[small]
</font><blockquote>code:</font><hr /><pre style="font-size:x-small; font-family: monospace;"> ------ 12pymt ------ ------ 13 pymt ------
%made N Loss(?N*%m) %made N Loss(?N*%m)
0 80 40 0 80 40 0
1 75 38.91 82.04 74.58 38.64 101.62
2 70 37.84 74.47 69.17 37.32 91.03
3 65 36.81 67.26 63.75 36.05 81.05
4 60 35.8 60.39 58.33 34.82 71.63
5 55 34.82 53.84 52.92 33.64 62.77
6 50 33.87 47.61 47.5 32.49 54.42
7 45 32.94 41.68 42.08 31.38 46.57
8 40 32.04 36.03 36.67 30.31 39.2
9 35 31.17 30.67 31.25 29.28 32.27
10 30 30.31 25.57 25.83 28.28 25.77
11 25 29.49 20.72 20.42 27.32 19.67
12 20 28.68 16.13 15 26.39 13.96
13 15 27.89 11.76 9.58 25.49 8.61
14 10 27.13 7.63 4.17 24.62 3.62
15 5 26.39 3.71 -1.25 23.78 -1.05
16 0 25.67 0 -6.67 22.97 -5.4
17 -5 24.97 -3.51 -12.08 22.19 -9.46
18 -10 24.28 -6.83 -17.5 21.44 -13.23
19 -15 23.62 -9.96 -22.92 20.71 -16.73
20 -20 22.97 -12.92 -28.33 20 -19.98
21 -25 22.35 -15.71 -33.75 19.32 -22.99
22 -30 21.73 -18.33 -39.17 18.66 -25.77
23 -35 21.14 -20.8 -44.58 18.03 -28.34
24 -40 20.56 -23.12 -50 17.41 -30.7
25 -45 20 -25.3 -55.42 16.82 -32.87
26 -50 19.45 -27.35 -60.83 16.25 -34.85
27 -55 18.92 -29.26 -66.25 15.69 -36.66
28 -60 18.4 -31.04 -71.67 15.16 -38.31
29 -65 17.9 -32.71 -77.08 14.64 -39.8
30 -70 17.41 -34.26 -82.5 14.14 -41.14
31 -75 16.93 -35.71 -87.92 13.66 -42.35
32 -80 16.47 -37.05 -93.33 13.2 -43.43
33 -85 16.02 -38.29 -98.75 12.75 -44.39
34 -90 15.58 -39.43 -104.17 12.31 -45.23
35 -95 15.16 -40.48 -109.58 11.89 -45.96
36 -100 14.74 -41.45 -115 11.49 -46.59
37 -105 14.34 -42.33 -120.42 11.1 -47.12
38 -110 13.95 -43.13 -125.83 10.72 -47.56
39 -115 13.57 -43.86 -131.25 10.35 -47.92
40 -120 13.2 -44.52 -136.67 10 -48.2
-117.83 0 0 -203.81</pre>[/QUOTE](the funky character is a Delta...)
What this shows is that, based upon 13 payments per year, and a half-life of 20 years, the mortgage company still makes a profit of 203.81% of the base vessel. Not much, but long term sustainable in an inflation-free imperium
Based upon 12 payments, and doubling time 25 years, one can afford at the end to finance 41 ships from an initial investment of 40. At 30 years, we get the following table with 13 payments (MTU):
</font><blockquote>code:</font><hr /><pre style="font-size:x-small; font-family: monospace;"> ------ 13 pymt ------
%made N Loss(?N*%m)
0 80 40 0
1 74.58 39.09 68.14
2 69.17 38.19 61.75
3 63.75 37.32 55.61
4 58.33 36.47 49.72
5 52.92 35.64 44.08
6 47.5 34.82 38.66
7 42.08 34.03 33.47
8 36.67 33.25 28.5
9 31.25 32.49 23.73
10 25.83 31.75 19.17
11 20.42 31.02 14.8
12 15 30.31 10.63
13 9.58 29.62 6.64
14 4.17 28.95 2.82
15 -1.25 28.28 -0.83
16 -6.67 27.64 -4.31
17 -12.08 27.01 -7.63
18 -17.5 26.39 -10.79
19 -22.92 25.79 -13.81
20 -28.33 25.2 -16.69
21 -33.75 24.62 -19.42
22 -39.17 24.06 -22.03
23 -44.58 23.51 -24.5
24 -50 22.97 -26.85
25 -55.42 22.45 -29.08
26 -60.83 21.94 -31.19
27 -66.25 21.44 -33.19
28 -71.67 20.95 -35.09
29 -77.08 20.47 -36.88
30 -82.5 20 -38.57
31 -87.92 19.54 -40.16
32 -93.33 19.1 -41.66
33 -98.75 18.66 -43.07
34 -104.17 18.23 -44.4
35 -109.58 17.82 -45.64
36 -115 17.41 -46.8
37 -120.42 17.01 -47.89
38 -125.83 16.62 -48.9
39 -131.25 16.25 -49.84
40 -136.67 15.87 -50.71
0 0 -352.19</pre>[/QUOTE]one is able to finance 43.52 from 40...
With 40 years Half-life, and 12 payments, one gets -221% BSV on 40 vessels.
With 40 years Half-life, and 13 payments, one gets -373% BSV on 40 vessels.
With 50 years Half-life, and 12 payments, one gets -227% BSV on 40 vessels.
With 50 years Half-life, and 13 payments, one gets -359% BSV on 40 vessels.
BSV= base ship value of ONE ship
This really low return is why, IMTU, ship loans are usually IMoT...
Sicne the numbers are not significantly better at 35-30 years, I tend to keep down to that level (matches the risk in play, IMTU, pretty well...).
If one can, however, bend the curve so that the half-life is say, 100 years for the first forty, then 10 after that, one can make far more on the standard loan terms.
opinions
Why offer subsidies? Because a subsidy can, IF THE SHIP SPECULATES WELL, pay far better than a normal run to the financier. (This is vastly more true in T20...) If banks are involved, it will probably be a subsidy, IMTU, due to the profit potential.
Why rigid routes? Only for ships with a business plan that provides a strong profit EVERY JUMP or two...
To my mind, T20 solves most of CT's problems...
and speculation drives the system, with haulage being for most the point where less than 1/2 of ships pay the bills. (Since, IMTU, only 40% of ships make it to 40 years...)
Of course, MTU is a nasty MT rules, CT/PT setting, T20 Trade, T4 Psionics Rules mishmash...
If one doesn't fixate on "Orders must be the basis of trade-flows" then speculation can be the prime mover... it's not the majority of flow in volume, but definitely works with the Bk2 setting to be the primary mode of paying the bills... hence, driving the system. WIthout it, all cargo ships are Type R or close to it. Perhaps an R2... but the breakpoints are Bridge Min Volume, and the badly broken Bk2 PP Fuel rates, which make 200Td ships unable to break even under payments. (On a Type A, Dropping minimum bridge to 5Td opens 15x26xCr1000=375,000 per year, and fixing the fuel rate to 0.01HPn gives another KCr208, while reducing fuel costs by KCr52 per year...)
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