How Do *You* Calculate YTU's Budgets?

[RainOfSteel]

Originally posted by thrash:
After much argument I think I've managed to convince Hans (the most vocal proponent of the position you've taken) that the figures and forces in I:E and FFW were at least intended by the authors to be an accurate depiction of canon, whether they are flawed for other reasons or not.

Did you save the discussions, or the links to the discussions, so that I may go off and enlighten myself?

And please do not think I've "taken" a position. I just remember reading some stuff, somewhere, maybe back in 2003 on the TML, that's all.

Originally posted by thrash:
</font><blockquote>quote:</font><hr />Originally posted by RainOfSteel:
</font><blockquote>quote:</font><hr />Originally posted by thrash:
That's maybe 6-7 million Marines organized in regiments,

Is that for the Spinward Marches based on FFW, or the Solomani Rim based on I:E?
</font>[/QUOTE]Total, for the entire Imperium, and even then I made a mistake. It should be: [...] for the Imperium is around 20 millions; maybe as many as 30 millions.
</font>[/QUOTE]

Except that the Imperium can, obviously, afford far more. Even if I subtitue the verbatim GT:Far Trader Per Capita Chart, which would lower the numbers I've posted substantially, under the tax structure I propose, the Imperium has more than enough wealth to field a lot more than that.

 

[RainOfSteel]

Originally posted by thrash:

</font><blockquote>quote:</font><hr />Originally posted by RainOfSteel:
Did you save the discussions, or the links to the discussions, so that I may go off and enlighten myself?

It wasn't so much a single coherent debate, as several rounds of argument over related points.
</font>[/QUOTE]Ouch! I was affraid of that. Searching the TML via Google is a real chore.

Originally posted by thrash:
[...] which quote specific unit strengths (10 SDB's at Regina and 25 divisions on Rhylanor) that exactly match their FFW values; and the campaign narratives of Spinward Marches Campaign, which closely mirror the initial setup and fleet organization of FFW.

The above is very reminiscent of whatever it was I was reading before.

Your knowledge of the matter of the applicability of FFW and I:E is far superior to mine (especially since I don't have the games and can't evaluate them).

However, this does not change the fact that the official unit strengths supplied are way too low. I would say impossibly low.

Regina is wealthy enough to have a self-defense fleet that would include hundreds of SDBs and many full-fledged monitors.

Originally posted by thrash:
</font><blockquote>quote:</font><hr />Except that the Imperium can, obviously, afford far more.

Sure -- if warfare in the Third Imperium is always total [...]

I infer rather that warfare in Traveller is normally limited and largely dynastic [...]
</font>[/QUOTE]Perhaps. But if you check my model, it does not imply a &#147;Total&#148; warfare footing for the Imperium. It has 2% taxation of a world's GWP in peacetime, and 4% during general war (in those subsectors declared to be in that status).

The figures I have given are for the peacetime taxation rate, and the volume of wealth pouring through that channel is sufficient to field far more strength, at the world, subsector, and sector (IN, IM, and IA) levels, than appears to have been given in FFW and I:E.

Originally posted by thrash:
A cadre that is both loyal and flexible enough to be effective at the far end of Traveller's communications lags [...] eventually cause them to fragment, most likely along regional lines -- i.e., create the conditions for the Rebellion.

We wander further afield IMTU:

For the nobility of the Imperium, I have them welded together (in large but not absolute part) by the Imperial Studies Colleges (one per domain), that almost all attend (and all of the Ruling Nobility's children attend).

For the military, the Imperial Depots obviously serve as the sector by sector multi-force Imperial Military Academies. Instruction and inculcation of forces is centralized and replicable.

MTU's intelligence services (Imperial Interstellar Intelligence and the Imperial Secret Service) are also a part of the scheme that watches for and guards against just what is suggested (fragmentation and rebellion).

 

[robject]

Hey, this is new info for me. I had no idea of the contrast between (or even the existence of) dynastic versus industrial armies.

I wonder how this can possibly work in an interstellar setting. For example, how might one 'deal with' a high-population, industrial world in a dynastic empire?

 

[mike wightman]

This idea could also help to explain how one high population world on an industrial war setting was able to confront and eventually defeat an interstellar empire's dynastic military

 

[robject]

Ah. Hey, that's a great insight. Wow, the idea actually ties up a seriously huge loose end... much more nicely than the clones concept. Who'd'a thunk it??

So then, an industrial world would use numbers in line with Trillion Credit Squadron, but perhaps an interstellar empire necessarily defaults to a dynastic model... (hands waving furiously)

Wild hair mode on: how about the earlier chatter about mercenary armies (free companies?). Perhaps a sufficiently militarized, high population industrial system could offer significant booty to previously loyal free companies to switch sides...

 

[The Oz]

What I imagine this would mean (the dynastic model) is that the 3rd Imperium does not tax as much as it could, nor spend as much of the taxes it collects on the military, as a government operating on the "total war" model of Earth's Age of Industrial Warfare.

Now, this would also have to mean that the enemies of the 3rd Imperium also operate on the dynastic model, or they would be able to outbuild the Imperium, at least on a local/regional level (the area of contact between the two empires). I would agree that the Aslan and Vargr operate this way, but I'm not sure about the Zhos (though I think it likely, especially with the Zhos spending so much on the Core Expeditions) and I would think the Solomani Confederation would at least be trying to spend at the total war level, although internal politics might be preventing them from doing so.

 

[RainOfSteel]

Originally posted by thrash:
As soon as you start talking about what the Imperium can afford, as opposed to what it needs or wants to spend, you are by definition discussing total rather than limited warfare, and an industrial rather than a dynastic model.

I think the problem is in the definition of the snippet, "can afford". There is, "Oh, I can afford this because it's within my existing, normal, everyday, ho-hum budget," and then there is, "I can afford this because I tighten my belt, put my nose to the grindstone, and work like a madman without regard to my health or well-being".

I believe I was implying the first, which is not connected to any definition of Total War.

WWI saw only the first glimpse of Total War. It wasn't until WWII, when a whole nation's industry and economy were turned to the purpose of warfare, that we really saw Total War. My model of the Imperium has it spending far less, as a percentage of Imperial GDP, than the US or Germany of WWII were spending. By the end of WWII, both nations had transformed their economy's outputs (although Germany probably went further, and used slave labor and worked people to death all over the place on top of that).

An Imperium under a model of Total War would be taxing at a higher rate (higher than 4% for my "general war"), and would afford even more than was noted. Probably a lot more. What little social and charitable services are offered by the Imperium would disappear, and the big loveable friendly Imperium (that nukes its opponents without mercy) would be replaced by a frightening Evil Empire (as the Imperium is often viewed by some) that expanded without end and crushed everything in its path; and that which it could not crush it would be at war with (all the time, overtly and covertly; and I don't mean the 500 years w/5 wars Zhodani conflict).

Originally posted by thrash:
Contrast continental armies pre-1793, with a maximum of perhaps 100,000 soldiers under arms, with those in 1815, with millions. Same economies (or worse, after two decades of war); different attitude. The (CT) canonical evidence suggests that the Imperial military more closely resembles a limited, dynastic army of the 18th Century than a post-levee en masse nation in arms.

The trouble is, I believe the same thing you do.

I believe that the large number of ships and troops that are affordable under the model I propose are the "dynastic level" of forces you mention. As I discuss above, a Total War footing would produce vastly larger numbers of forces.


On a further note: You mention that the authors of Traveller writing canon didn't really intend for such large forces to exist.

As counterpoint, I will say that the authors of Traveller writing canon did intend for trade between the stars to not just be a huge part of the Imperium, but the key part of the Imperium's economy (several quotes I could rely on, for that). As we know, other factors show that isn't quite true.

 

[robject]

Let me try to back this thread up a bit and get a birds-eye view. For what reason do each of you work the numbers?

One reason might be a consistency check: there seems to be a disconnect between rule X and rule Y. So we choose a likely rule and reconcile the other against it.

Or, alternately, one might figure the rules are not merely inconsistent but wrong. Therefore, one might seek to determine a reasonable rule, and reconcile the TU against it.

Either way, I seem to see reconciliation as the heart of the task. So then, what other purposes might I be missing?

 

[RainOfSteel]

robject,

I run these numbers so I can use them to estimate the size of the Imperial Government and all it's various components.

How much for the IN? How much for the IISS? We've got to start somewhere.

There is little point in stating that 20 BatRons of Battleships are stationed at Rhylanor as an advanced strategic reserve against Zhodani and Vargr attack unless you have the numbers to back up that size of force (and yes, I did throw 20 BatRons out for this example, that was not an actual estimate IMTU).

Yes, I fully admit that my numbers are based on some guessing, but it is the GT:Far Trader GWP calculation that is being used.

The output numbers are an estimate, but so what? The whole shebang is imaginary anyway. I feel that these numbers are what I have to work with, and therefore, I'll use them.

 

[RainOfSteel]

Originally posted by thrash:

Originally posted by RainOfSteel:
I think the problem is in the definition of the snippet, "can afford".

No, from my point of view you're still asking fundamentally the wrong question.

In a dynastic system, Regina does not pay 2% of its GDP into the Imperial coffers. Instead, she provides two squadrons of ships, a tithe on btwo bottles of local vintage for the Duke's table, as was specified in her charter nine centuries ago when she joined the Imperium.

I'm not sure who I had this dicussion with before. It may even have been Hans.

I guess we just stand on opposite sides of a fence here.

I don't see anywhere that says those are the "ancestral" forces that are supplied to the Imperium by Regina. Well, I don't have the entirety of Traveller, please point out where that is stated (or mention specifically of that is IYTU).

Nor have I read evidence that would support such a system of "actual forces" vs. "actual taxes".

Regina is only TL-12, and the IN/IM is TL-15. Locally raised forces would be beyond useless to the IN/IM due to incompatibility of equipment and capabilities.

I believe the above arrangement is impossible, impractical, and highly unlikely in a massive super-tech force requiring general uniformity of equipment and training for forces deployed across vast distances.

This does not mean that such a setup is invalid in a particular TU. I do not believe it is OTU (I believe the OTU is open and undefined in this regard; even known sources discussing the military do not really pin it down; and no, I don't have the PDF-only Grand Fleet).

Originally posted by thrash:
But the 10 "heavy" SDB's at Regina are canonical "fact" until proven otherwise

I can't remember that point exactly, but wasn't it a TNS blurb? The TNS is hardly fully knowledgeable about the full forces deployed at Regina. Even if that blurb said those were the only forces in Regina, that doesn't mean they really were the only forces there.

Originally posted by thrash:
the loss of interstellar trade is not that big a deal.

I'll have to do some digging. That is not the way I was reading the quotes regarding The Long Night.

Originally posted by thrash:

Every major race by definition bootstrapped itself to interstellar travel without outside contact:

AFAIK, there were exceptional worlds among each races that never lost the technology, and eventually "brought" that technology back to the others. There may have been a world here or there that bootstrapped its way back to jump travel after losing it, but they were not the pivotal worlds like Vland and Sylea.

Originally posted by thrash:
If you run Hard Times without the black war factors,[...]
Note, too, that in Striker,[...]

If you have Hard Times, I:E, FFW, or Stiker.

I looked into buying the Games reprint a couple of days ago. I have never wanted Striker because I am not into miniatures battles. FFW and I:E have never attacted me eye, and did no more so now than on previous occasions.

I wouldn't mind having Hard Times, but it can be very expensive.

Originally posted by thrash:
[...]TL9 (Cr10,000) to TL15 (Cr22,000)[...]

GT:Credits.

Originally posted by thrash:
One simple way to reconcile these statements is to understand that "the Imperium" refers to the participants in interstellar society (around 1.5 billion Travellers, total), and only peripherally to the mass of planet-bound locals.

That's one way of looking at it. It isn't really mine.

Originally posted by thrash:
No contradiction, no flaw: canon can stand as written.

Well . . .

 

[RainOfSteel]

Originally posted by thrash:
The named counters supplied by Regina in FFW are:

We are definitely swimming around in oceans on different planets.

It's unlikely FFW or I:E or Striker will be sources for me in the near future. The amount of time I'd need to invest to figure them all out would be enormous and, worse (with no one to play with and never having attracted my attention), tedious. Not to mention that I can't afford it.

Originally posted by thrash:
Charters for Imperial worlds are discussed in Double Adventure 3, Argon Gambit, pp. 12 and 17.

I've got charters for Member Worlds IMTU, as well. They just read that the Member World is required to pay its taxes in Credits.

Originally posted by thrash:
The discussion was intended to illustrate that the forces depicted in canon need not depend in a dynastic model on GDP or even "taxation," not to quote canon per se.

Ok, I understand far better now.

Originally posted by thrash:
You misundertand: [...]

Oh, I thought you meant during the end of the Long Night. You meant at the beginning of their histories.

Originally posted by thrash:

Originally posted by RainOfSteel:

Originally posted by thrash:
[...]TL9 (Cr10,000) to TL15 (Cr22,000)[...]

GT:Credits.

No, those are CT credits. Productivity in GURPS roughly doubles every TL, which leads to erroneous conclusions if you try to apply GT figures retroactively to CT.

Well, I recall that I asked for your help in building my own Per Capita by TL Table. Your answer seemed, at the time, that it wasn't possible. So I went with my original conversion. Yes, you did tell me it wasn't convertible, but lacking anything to go on that I could figure out, I chose to go with what I originally conceived rather than redo it and still not be sure anyway.

Originally posted by thrash:
I tend to agree with Anthony Jackson that TTL15 should really be only GTL10 or so. He bases his argument on technological capability; I concur based on the much flatter progression in per capita GDP in CT.

I know you've probably either written or otherwise know the location of what was written the materials or cites that defines this "flat" progression of per capita earnings by TL?

That TL-15 should barely be beyond TL-8 in economic output . . . I can't buy into that. We're talking eight leaps of technology, here.

Maybe, if we're lucky, all that will get reforged into some comprehensible whole in T5. <stop laughing! />

Oh, and it's stuff like the following that has me believe that the Long Night was bad.

The Long Night (2750 AD to 4550 AD). When interstellar trade shut down, the Rule of Man ceased as an interstellar government. Each world found itself on its own, living or dying on its own resources. Outpost worlds dependent on food or supplies shipped in from agricultural worlds simply died. Scattered starship trade kept other worlds alive, but after a few centuries, even the starships stopped running. Each world found itself along in a sea of space, completely dependent on its own resources. This Long Night lasted for more than 1700 years.