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How to address the problem of the numbers

Oh, one other thought happened while discussing this with Cryton... that 10-50Td per week from earth to regina? that's a 3-4 year investment... The opportunity cost for 4 years?
Well, it wouild be if someone on Terra outfitted a ship and sent it to Regina with a cargo. But it's extremely unlikely that anyone would do that. Rather they would send a cargo to Muan Gwi, sell it, buy Reginan nutberry brandy, and return to Terra. That cargo gets sold to someone who transports it to Libert/Diaspora. From there it goes through more links until at last it is sold on Mora to someone who takes it to Regina.

And, yes, all those middlemen do add frightfully to the cost. The number of links may be fewer and their lengths greater.


Hans
 
Well, it wouild be if someone on Terra outfitted a ship and sent it to Regina with a cargo. But it's extremely unlikely that anyone would do that. Rather they would send a cargo to Muan Gwi, sell it, buy Reginan nutberry brandy, and return to Terra. That cargo gets sold to someone who transports it to Libert/Diaspora. From there it goes through more links until at last it is sold on Mora to someone who takes it to Regina.

And, yes, all those middlemen do add frightfully to the cost. The number of links may be fewer and their lengths greater.


Hans
Except that GTFT says there won't be middlemen. They use a demand-trade based model. Stuff only goes when someone demands it.

There might be up to 5 middlemen - that would make it akin to the worst cases for the silk road. Bought in china, sold in india, sold again in iran, and again in lebanon, then in france or england, and then again at the final city, and then on to the end user... that's about the largest handover chain documented between manufacturer's warehouse and point of sale to end user I recall reading about. And that promptly got shortened when the trade started to stabilize... china to an overland merchant in Arabia, then to an english, french, spanish, or italian merchant on the other side of arabia, and then to a final country importer, and on to final sale.

Why? higher margin and lower end cost.

But in the case of those GTFT long distance trade numbers, everything will have some means of production closer. Livestock, you just X-mail the genome to the buyer's nearest TL12+ ag world, and grow a starter herd, ship those where you want them. Just like you don't ship the stud bull now, you ship his semen.

Given the markup, it's probably pretty easy to chemically manufacture your 1992 Chateau Rothchild by exact chemical replication after a chromatographic analysis... and you ship the formula, not the bottle... at least you do so far enough away that they can't easily get to you. 3-4 months travel time is plenty... You duplicate one bottle, and sell 3-4 thousand... TL12+ manufacturing at work.

Only information is worth shipping that far.
 
This I don't understand, but you two seem to understand each other so I'll wait to see what evolves from it.



And this I really don't understand.

The slope is "draw a best fit line along the relative costs"

the ratio is "what do we multiply the distance by before we look up the penalty for trade flows with distant worlds to match the slope of the target game system."

With a ratio of 3.5 for MGT, earth isn't trading goods with the marches even under the GTFT model of demand trade for all significant flows.

For CT-77 a ratio of 0.71, Earth trades with imperial worlds in Foreven and sends probably 5x as much to the marches...
 
The slope is "draw a best fit line along the relative costs"

the ratio is "what do we multiply the distance by before we look up the penalty for trade flows with distant worlds to match the slope of the target game system."

With a ratio of 3.5 for MGT, earth isn't trading goods with the marches even under the GTFT model of demand trade for all significant flows.

For CT-77 a ratio of 0.71, Earth trades with imperial worlds in Foreven and sends probably 5x as much to the marches...

This solves about 1/2 of the problem. The other portion requires noting that the cost of goods is about 1/2 (Cr4000 vs $10K to $50K) per dton. The GT $ is about 40% stronger than the CT Cr. So while the trade using the CT shipping may go further, the amount of trade is 1/10 (or there abouts) as much.

I really like the GT:FT trade system. And the underlying process could be adapted to a CT, HG, or MGT universe assuming the definitions of WTN and BTN are adjusted correctly to reflect the underlying cost of goods and travel.
 
I think the real solution is a similar methodology, but rebuilt from first principles.

Also, to be able to account for in-system travel times, another term needs be added.

And it would be good to use a wider range of values to be able to have more finely graded output, and to use actual logarithms (for those who want even more granularity).

So, using Pop, rather than Pop/2, and scaling trade by a factor of 1.77 per BTN, etc.
 
Except that GTFT says there won't be middlemen.
Does it actually say that? Or do you infer it from what it does say?

They use a demand-trade based model. Stuff only goes when someone demands it.
That makes absolutely no sense to me (that Jim McLean should have assumed demand-trade over any appreciable distance). Are you, perhaps, assuming that a gravity-based trade model absolutely has to be a demand-trade model? And, if so, is that actually estasblished fact? Why can't you have a gravity-based model that works like pre demand-trade trade? And what would you suggest we use instead?

There might be up to 5 middlemen - that would make it akin to the worst cases for the silk road. Bought in china, sold in india, sold again in iran, and again in lebanon, then in france or england, and then again at the final city, and then on to the end user... that's about the largest handover chain documented between manufacturer's warehouse and point of sale to end user I recall reading about.
I believe you. But that merely means that five middlemen is a proven possibility. It doesn't prove that more are not possible. In any case, six legs reduces your four year opportunity costs to 8 months. And we know of historical trade expeditions that took that long.

But in the case of those GTFT long distance trade numbers, everything will have some means of production closer. Livestock, you just X-mail the genome to the buyer's nearest TL12+ ag world, and grow a starter herd, ship those where you want them. Just like you don't ship the stud bull now, you ship his semen.
You can't get Terran tobacco anywhere but on Terra or Reginan nutberry brandy anywhere but on Regina. That's MY assumption.

Given the markup, it's probably pretty easy to chemically manufacture your 1992 Chateau Rothchild by exact chemical replication after a chromatographic analysis... and you ship the formula, not the bottle... at least you do so far enough away that they can't easily get to you. 3-4 months travel time is plenty... You duplicate one bottle, and sell 3-4 thousand... TL12+ manufacturing at work.
If it pleases you to assume that anything can be synthesized, that's your privelege, but there's nothing in canon that says so. And the luxury item that can only be grown on one particular world is a standard SF trope. I see no reason to discard it. And by stating that Regina and Terra have a bilateral trade, GT explicitly implies that there are, in fact, stuff created on Terra that can't be produced anywhere closer to Regina and vice versa. So, in effect, canon says you're dead wrong about that.


Hans
 
A question out of ignorance: As a ship trader, how do you determine demand for "demand trading" (whatever that is)? Do you fly around and hope you can find a place that will take your goods?

I mean, by the books, you can guess that there's some small demand for your goods, whatever they are, but do the rules ever tell you, "Sorry, we don't need any left-handed widgets. Some big freightliner came through last week and filled the market with cheap left-handed widgets"?
 
You can't get Terran tobacco anywhere but on Terra or Reginan nutberry brandy anywhere but on Regina. That's MY assumption.


If it pleases you to assume that anything can be synthesized, that's your privelege, but there's nothing in canon that says so. And the luxury item that can only be grown on one particular world is a standard SF trope. I see no reason to discard it. And by stating that Regina and Terra have a bilateral trade, GT explicitly implies that there are, in fact, stuff created on Terra that can't be produced anywhere closer to Regina and vice versa. So, in effect, canon says you're dead wrong about that.


Hans

No matter how well something can be "synthesized," there is a perversity in humanity to want the "precious real thing." Thus, while coffee beans, grapes, and corn will likely be grown in the Marches, there will ALWAYS be a luxury demand for "real Terran coffee," "real Boone Farm Wine with genuine twist-off bottlecap," and of course, "real Terran popcorn." Each will be dreadfully expensive, because it DOES pass a whole year or two from Sol to Regina.

Yes, Hans and I are agreeing. I think that leaves only one seal left on the Apocalypse.
 
A question out of ignorance: As a ship trader, how do you determine demand for "demand trading" (whatever that is)? Do you fly around and hope you can find a place that will take your goods?

As a ship trader, you don't determine demand. The idea is that World A decides it needs/wants some goods. And World B supplies them. The only thing the ship trader is doing is hauling boxes already filled on World B with goods already ordered (and presumably sold) to World B.

I do remember Jim MacLean posting a note to the effect he wished he had spent more time developing the GT:FT Speculative Trade Rules, since that's where the adventures take place.
 
As a ship trader, you don't determine demand. The idea is that World A decides it needs/wants some goods. And World B supplies them. The only thing the ship trader is doing is hauling boxes already filled on World B with goods already ordered (and presumably sold) to World B.
But there's another way to do it. You know, or think you know, that there are people on Muan Gwi who will buy Terran Havana cigars, so you buy several containers full and bring them to Muan Gwi, where it turns out that your belief was sound. Some of these cirgars are then sold to someone who believes that there are people on Libert/Diaspora who will buy them. And so on and so forth until six crates arrive at Mora and one of them is bought by someone who ships it to Regina in the belief that there are some billionaires there who will buy them -- maybe even bid against each other in an auction. (YAY!)


Hans
 
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But there's another way to do it. You know, or think you know, that there are people on Muan Gwi who will buy Terran Havana cigars, so you buy several containers full bring them to Muan Gwi, where it turns out that your belief was sound. Some of these cirgars are then sold to someone who believes that there are people on Libert/Diaspora who will buy them. And so on and so forth until six crates arrive at Mora and one of them is bought by someone who ships it to Regina in the belief that there are some billionaires there who will buy them -- maybe even bid against each other in an auction. (YAY!)

Right. This is the speculative trade system. You speculate that someone on Muan Gwi wants your cigars. The Trade system in Book 2, where the ship owner buys the cargo and attempts to find a buyer at one or more of the worlds they visit.

I remember several people describing using the system (and manipulating the goods pricing) to buy one or two crates of something (Computers was a favorite) at 20% of original cost, then later reselling them at 150% of cost when the rolls came up right. They made enough money to buy another ship outright.

This works pretty good for PC scale adventures. But not so much for a modern technology society.
 
Right. This is the speculative trade system. You speculate that someone on Muan Gwi wants your cigars.
Yes and no. Technically it may be speculation, but I don't think the China Tea Trade was all that speculative. Is it speculation if you know beyond reasonable doubt that you will be able to sell what you carry?

Are fishermen engaged in 'speculative fishing' because they sell their catch at an auction?

The Trade system in Book 2, where the ship owner buys the cargo and attempts to find a buyer at one or more of the worlds they visit.
But what if you have a contract with someone to sell you a fixed amount of whiffleberries for a fixed sum and are confident that you'll be able to sell it at auction for a decent but not extravagant profit? Is that Book 2 type speculation?

I remember several people describing using the system (and manipulating the goods pricing) to buy one or two crates of something (Computers was a favorite) at 20% of original cost, then later reselling them at 150% of cost when the rolls came up right. They made enough money to buy another ship outright.
I was in a campaign like that once. Only, it was 68 (or whatever the cargo capacity of our free trader was) multi-million credit 1 dT computers bought at 30% (with a bank loan) and sold a couple of months later for 300% (on a world with population level 4).

This works pretty good for PC scale adventures. But not so much for a modern technology society.
I don't see where a society like the Imperium differs significantly (in this respect) from 18th Century Britain, however modern the technology. Indeed, given the communication restrictions, I don't see how you can possibly have a trade system that resembles the one we know from our modern societ.


Hans
 
Yes and no. Technically it may be speculation, but I don't think the China Tea Trade was all that speculative. Is it speculation if you know beyond reasonable doubt that you will be able to sell what you carry?

Speculative trade has several elements:
1) the shipper buys the goods at source
2) the shipper sells the goods at market
3) the shipper isn't the manufacturer nor end customer
4) no contractual prices is set for end sale

The Chinese Tea trade was very much of this sort, tho' the marketplace the goods were sold at was often owned by the shipper - the British East India Company - to local warehousers in the UK.

Once they managed to acquire the tea plantations, that ceased being speculative trade, and became vertically integrated trade; the end market was still (and is still) an auction.

The issue for tea wasn't whether there was a demand, but if it was sufficient to pay for the voyage. It wasn't always so. Which is part of why most tea-haulers also carried dishware and silk. Usually, if one was overabundant, the others weren't, and you could make a more stable profit, even if it was a lesser profit.

Many small risks being, generally, better business than one big one for an all or nothing score, most of the BEI Co's ships carried mixed loads.
 
Speculative trade has several elements:
1) the shipper buys the goods at source
2) the shipper sells the goods at market
3) the shipper isn't the manufacturer nor end customer
4) no contractual prices is set for end sale

The Chinese Tea trade was very much of this sort, tho' the marketplace the goods were sold at was often owned by the shipper - the British East India Company - to local warehousers in the UK.
Maybe so, but in that case we need another term for the kind of trade Book 2 emulates, because there is one BIG difference: China Tea Trade type trading involves transporting goods from one known market to another known market rather than finding a bargain at some random port and transporting it to another semi-random port in the hope of making a sale. And that's the difference I've been trying to highlight, because I think that is the kind of trade the regular companies do a lot of the time -- unlike Book 2 trading tramps.

Or perhaps it's the China Tea trade that needs another term. I don't much care, because that's not the important thing. The important thing is that the two kinds of trade are markedly different; if both are speculative trade then they are different kinds of speculative trade. And the difference is, I suspect, quite crucial.


Hans
 
Maybe so, but in that case we need another term for the kind of trade Book 2 emulates, because there is one BIG difference: China Tea Trade type trading involves transporting goods from one known market to another known market rather than finding a bargain at some random port and transporting it to another semi-random port in the hope of making a sale. And that's the difference I've been trying to highlight, because I think that is the kind of trade the regular companies do a lot of the time -- unlike Book 2 trading tramps.

Or perhaps it's the China Tea trade that needs another term. I don't much care, because that's not the important thing. The important thing is that the two kinds of trade are markedly different; if both are speculative trade then they are different kinds of speculative trade. And the difference is, I suspect, quite crucial.


Hans
Book 2 is also from a known market to a known market... the question isn't "Can I sell it there?", but "How much will I be able to sell it for there?"

Mongoose is the edition where you may not be able to sell it, just for reference.
 
Book 2 is also from a known market to a known market... the question isn't "Can I sell it there?", but "How much will I be able to sell it for there?"
Then let me try to explain it in a different manner. If you ask about a ship engaged in Book 2 type speculative trading -- would you accept the term 'tramp trade'? -- "Where is the Empress Fiona going to be in three months?", the answer will be "I don't know". If you ask about a ship engaged in the other kind of speculative trade -- regular trade? -- the answer will be "On Feri for the first whiffleberries."

Does that make the difference I'm talking about clear?


Hans
 
Then let me try to explain it in a different manner. If you ask about a ship engaged in Book 2 type speculative trading -- would you accept the term 'tramp trade'? -- "Where is the Empress Fiona going to be in three months?", the answer will be "I don't know". If you ask about a ship engaged in the other kind of speculative trade -- regular trade? -- the answer will be "On Feri for the first whiffleberries."

Does that make the difference I'm talking about clear?


Hans

Yes, but in terms of overall trade, it really doesn't matter which one is which.

And those aren't the only modes, either...

There's also the guy who doesn't have a specific demand to fill, but still has a route to run. (Sounds exactly like the classic subsidized trader.)

And the guy who is out searching for something specific, because he knows that, if he can get enough in time, he'll make a killing. He's the exact opposite of the tramp. Once he gets enough, or the time window expires, he heads back to where he knows the demand will hit.

Stable flows for the demand tend to be intentionally somewhat under-filled by the routed and/or scheduled speculators. Why? because of an application of the relationship of supply, demand, and price... if you fill demand fully, you crash the price. Guys on the stable flow runs do NOT want to crash the price. By leaving room for lining their pockets, they also leave room for the small tramp to occasionally hurt them, but the increased profits most of the time make up for that.
 
Right. This is the speculative trade system. You speculate that someone on Muan Gwi wants your cigars. The Trade system in Book 2, where the ship owner buys the cargo and attempts to find a buyer at one or more of the worlds they visit.
I guess I got sidetracked. The point I intended to make is that you don't need to assume that Havana cigars bought on Regina were ordered from Regina and delivered four years later. Those cigars almost certainly made their way to Regina "on their own", so to speak. And the same goes for 99% of all long-distance trade (where 'long-distance' is any distance so long that ordering stuff for delivery is impractical).


Hans
 
I guess I got sidetracked. The point I intended to make is that you don't need to assume that Havana cigars bought on Regina were ordered from Regina and delivered four years later. Those cigars almost certainly made their way to Regina "on their own", so to speak. And the same goes for 99% of all long-distance trade (where 'long-distance' is any distance so long that ordering stuff for delivery is impractical).


Hans

The problem there is in the assumption that stuff from earth hitting regina at MCr10k/week is benefiting earth at MCr10k/week. Which is exactly the definition of the BTN - it's "how much value is trading between a & f over distance z"...

Where, with the staging, a benefits only from the increased value with b; b gets it from a & c, c from b and d, d from c and e, e from d & f, f from e and g, until finally g only benefits from increased value with f.

Or, to put it in practical terms...

Zeb writes a book. it costs him $5 to manufacture it, not including his time. He sells it to the wholesaler for $10, shipping costs them $0.5. The wholesaler sells it to the retailer for $20, plus another $1 in shipping. The retailer marks it up to $40. Zeb sees $5 in profit.
Now, Zeb also sells it direct mail for $35, but shipping costs $5. Still, that's only $40 to the customer... but Zeb makes $25 in profit.

Give the wholesaler ownership of the delivery trucks, and the wholesaler is now 1/2 of the way to a speculator. (The last half is the auctioning at both ends.)

There's a huge difference to the ends for changing hands several times versus changing hands only at the ends. Each middleman reduces the value gained by the source, while increasing the cost to the destination above the costs of shipping.
 
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