Insurgencies in Traveller

[JustinInOz]

3I - Planetary Government Interface

The 3I interface between planetary government and the Imperium seems to be an incredible tolerant one. This given that almost any form of government can exist and is tolerated. The restrictions seem to centre around the use of WMD, payment of taxes, outright human trafficking and permission of free trade (oh and psionics). Aside from this relatively limited list, what occurs on the planet is of no concern to the empire at large.

This is an unusual situation. The avowed respect of domestic affairs is the science fiction part here. What makes for an interesting game is the examination of what this means when human nature is thrust into the situation. As long as no one steps over the line drawn by the 3I, people can do what they like. Our real world models of insurgency and its suppression/encouragement are secondary to this departure from our real world norms.

Insurgency is just another form of change of government. Elections, coup detat, inheritance and revolution are all forms of government change. As long as the new government did not try to secede from the Imperium or break one of the easy to adhere to rules, I see no reason why the 3I would even lift a finger. I would put it to you that any insurgency would at least pay lip service to this, to do otherwise is to invite intervention from high tech marines with very liberal rules of engagement. Liberal because their enemies are threatening the core of the imperial government.

On the contrary to what has been one of the theses of this thread, I think the 3I would be a hotbed of insurgencies.

Now what I have been saying is in general and in principle. In specific circumstances, large corporations may feel that their interests would be served by the present government or the government in waiting. In which case they would be helping one side or the other. Just as the US in Vietnam (hindering), Afghanistan (helping earlier and hindering now) and Nicaragua (helping).

Large corporations often have nobles as their leaders and nobles are members of the 3I government. I would say that this chain of involvement is a bit tenuous and would bring about much less direct involvement than battalions of marines descending from space. A whole lot more interesting types of involvement to play out too.

 

[samuelvss]

While I think that Blackhawk Down can be turned into a great Traveller scenario (done it myself), I don't know how applicable that situation is to an insurgency.

For starters, there was no insurgency per se in Somalia, since there was no government.

I don't believe I said there was. Neither did I bring it up as an example of how the U.S. did poorly, though certainly they did. (They were criminally predictable; that they weren't expecting a fight was negligence bred of overconfidence. They overestimated their enemy.) I brought it up as an example of how quickly the uninvolved (the armed but non-militia) can be mobilized in a very well-armed society. In this case, the citizenry rallied around the militia.

But the framework posited by Mao is logical, well-supported by historical evidence and very helpful to a Traveller referee.

I didn't say it wasn't. I was arguing, as I believe you assert, that the truth is more complex than the model.

 

[tbeard1999]

I was arguing, as I believe you assert, that the truth is more complex than the model.

My mistake then. I assumed that this was already understood. Of course a model is less complex than the thing it's modeling. But that observation alone doesn't get us very far, does it? If there are specific, important limitations in the model, I'd love to know what they are. But I can't do much with a generalized observation that models are imperfect. Everything is, after all.

 

[JustinInOz]

Models

I would chime in here to say that the Mao model is robust and very useful.

Robust because, it is pretty consistent with insurgency patterns through all recorded history. If you have an interest in guerrilla warfare, please look into "War in the Shadows, The Guerrilla in History" by Robert Asprey. Guerrilla warfare and hence insurgencies follow a very distinct pattern. This pattern has not changed since Alexander of Macedon carved out an empire. I only start with him because that is as far back as the illumination of history permits us to see. If you look at the interactions between colonial powers and the low tech people they conquered, I would assert that the principles of asymmetric warfare have been in play since we have been able to pick up rocks. Insurgencies and guerrilla warfare tactics succeed when the ground is fertile for them, they fail when it is not.

The Mao model is useful precisely because it is simple. Additional complexity does not often equal additional usefulness nor additional predictive power. The additional complexity more often describes a limited set of circumstances better but brings about an inability to describe what happens in general. We are trying to set up interesting games to run that do not overtax the suspension of disbelief. So I would say that simple is what we need. The three phases and movement between them give a gm a very useful shorthand to describe what is happening in a game.

To assert that we have entered into a new phase of history where previous axioms do not apply is dangerous at best. What Mao formulated works pretty well. Whoever knows these principles will be in a better position to exploit them and come out on top in an insurgency.

The main thing which is uncertain is how high tech gets applied. This has been brought up by tbeard. As an insight to this I put forward that you might want to look at what sort of interactions the Europeans had when conquering their colonies. They were generally overrunning people with a lower tech level.

One thing that often strikes me about traveller is the very varied patchworks of tech levels in a subsector. There might not be a gravitic tech level place for 3 jumps or so. Where do these high tech troops come from? Whoever is applying high tech assets to an insurgency might be applying this force from a long way away. They will have considerable logistics issues to deal with in supporting their gizmos for an extended period in the field. As a general rule, insurgencies play out over a long period of time.

 

[Icosahedron]

The 3I interface between planetary government and the Imperium seems to be an incredible tolerant one. This given that almost any form of government can exist and is tolerated. The restrictions seem to centre around the use of WMD, payment of taxes, outright human trafficking and permission of free trade (oh and psionics). Aside from this relatively limited list, what occurs on the planet is of no concern to the empire at large.

This is an unusual situation. The avowed respect of domestic affairs is the science fiction part here. What makes for an interesting game is the examination of what this means when human nature is thrust into the situation. As long as no one steps over the line drawn by the 3I, people can do what they like. Our real world models of insurgency and its suppression/encouragement are secondary to this departure from our real world norms.

Well, that's what the 'Prime Directive' policy says on paper. :smirk:

From an inspection of Pocket Empires, I would add 'activities likely to undermine the Imperial economy', eg widespread destruction of the environment, destruction of resources, genocide (destruction of population), destruction of Infrastructure, incitement to riot, etc etc. Basically anything that will significantly reduce the GWP and hence the amount of Tax the winning government is able to pay. IMO the Imperium will not be happy if a 'private war' halves the planet's tax output for a couple of generations - and this makes them much more meddlesome...

Insurgency is just another form of change of government. Elections, coup detat, inheritance and revolution are all forms of government change. As long as the new government did not try to secede from the Imperium or break one of the easy to adhere to rules, I see no reason why the 3I would even lift a finger. I would put it to you that any insurgency would at least pay lip service to this, to do otherwise is to invite intervention from high tech marines with very liberal rules of engagement. Liberal because their enemies are threatening the core of the imperial government.

On the contrary to what has been one of the theses of this thread, I think the 3I would be a hotbed of insurgencies.

Of course, this also means that governments can put down insurgencies with a ruthlessness that would provoke media outrage and 'peacekeeping missions' today, so that might limit the hotbed.

Now what I have been saying is in general and in principle. In specific circumstances, large corporations may feel that their interests would be served by the present government or the government in waiting. In which case they would be helping one side or the other. Just as the US in Vietnam (hindering), Afghanistan (helping earlier and hindering now) and Nicaragua (helping).

Large corporations often have nobles as their leaders and nobles are members of the 3I government. I would say that this chain of involvement is a bit tenuous and would bring about much less direct involvement than battalions of marines descending from space. A whole lot more interesting types of involvement to play out too.

Maybe, but those nobles can afford to buy deniable assets such as mercenaries...

The Imperium itself might have favourites too. They might tolerate all government types, but certain types in certain areas at certain times might be more useful to Imperial Politics.

 

[Icosahedron]

One thing that often strikes me about traveller is the very varied patchworks of tech levels in a subsector. There might not be a gravitic tech level place for 3 jumps or so. Where do these high tech troops come from? Whoever is applying high tech assets to an insurgency might be applying this force from a long way away. They will have considerable logistics issues to deal with in supporting their gizmos for an extended period in the field. As a general rule, insurgencies play out over a long period of time.

Pocket Empires provides a useful model for the economics of distant and long-term intervention, too.

 

[tbeard1999]

I'm finally reading FM 3-24 Counterinsurgency (2006), which articulates the unified US Army and Marine Corps counterinsurgency doctrine. Presumably, this is the doctrine that Gen. Petreus used so successfully to win in Iraq (Petreus wrote the forward for the manual). Like most military field manuals, it's pretty dry reading. When I finish it, I'll comment in this thread.

FM 3-24 approvingly notes Mao's theories of insurgencies and describes the phases thusly:

Mao’s Theory of Protracted War outlines a three-phased, politico-military approach:
-Strategic defensive, when the government has a stronger correlation of forces and insurgents must concentrate on survival and building support.
-Strategic stalemate, when force correlations approach equilibrium and guerrilla warfare becomes the most important activity.
-Strategic counteroffensive, when insurgents have superior strength and military forces move to conventional operations to destroy the government’s military capability.

Phase I, strategic defensive, is a period of latent insurgency that allows time to wear down superior enemy strength while the insurgency gains support and establishes bases. During this phase, insurgent leaders develop the movement into an effective clandestine organization. Insurgents use a variety of subversive techniques to psychologically prepare the populace to resist the government or occupying power. These techniques may include propaganda, demonstrations, boycotts, and sabotage. In addition, movement leaders organize or develop cooperative relationships with legitimate political action groups, youth groups, trade unions, and other front organizations. Doing this develops popular support for later political and military activities. Throughout this phase, the movement leadership—

+Recruits, organizes, and trains cadre members.
+Infiltrates key government organizations and civilian groups.
+Establishes cellular intelligence, operations, and support networks.
+Solicits and obtains funds.
+Develops sources for external support.

Subversive activities are frequently executed in an organized pattern, but major combat is avoided. The primary military activity is terrorist strikes. These are executed to gain popular support, influence recalcitrant individuals, and sap enemy strength. In the advanced stages of this phase, the insurgent organization may establish a counterstate that parallels the established authority. (A counterstate <or shadow government>
is a competing structure that a movement sets up to replace the government. It includes the administrative and bureaucratic trappings of political power and performs the normal functions of a government.)

Phase II, strategic stalemate, begins with overt guerrilla warfare as the correlation of forces approaches equilibrium. In a rural-based insurgency, guerrillas normally operate from a relatively secure base area in insurgent-controlled territory. In an urban-based insurgency, guerrillas operate clandestinely, using a cellular organization. In the political arena, the movement concentrates on undermining the people’s support of the government and further expanding areas of control. Subversive activities can take the form of clandestine radio broadcasts, newspapers, and pamphlets that openly challenge the control and legitimacy of the established authority. As the populace loses faith in the established authority the people may decide to actively resist it. During this phase, a counterstate may begin to emerge to fill gaps in governance that the host-nation (HN) government is unwilling or unable to address. Two recent examples are Moqtada al Sadr’s organization in Iraq and Hezbollah in Lebanon. Sadr’s Mahdi Army provides security and some services in parts of southern Iraq and Baghdad under Sadr’s control. (In fact, the Mahdi Army
created gaps by undermining security and services; then it moved to solve the problem it created.) Hezbollah provides essential services and reconstruction assistance for its constituents as well as security. Each is an expression of Shiite identity against governments that are pluralist and relatively weak.

Phase III, strategic counteroffensive, occurs as the insurgent organization becomes stronger than the established authority. Insurgent forces transition from guerrilla warfare to conventional warfare. Military forces aim to destroy the enemy’s military capability. Political actions aim to completely displace all government authorities. If successful, this phase causes the government’s collapse or the occupying power’s withdrawal. Without direct foreign intervention, a strategic offensive takes on the characteristics of a full-scale civil war. As it gains control of portions of the country, the insurgent movement becomes
responsible for the population, resources, and territory under its control. To consolidate and preserve its gains, an effective insurgent movement continues the phase I activities listed <above>. In addition it—

-Establishes an effective civil administration.
-Establishes an effective military organization.
-Provides balanced social and economic development.
-Mobilizes the populace to support the insurgent organization.
-Protects the populace from hostile actions.

Effectively applying Maoist strategy does not require a sequential or complete application of all three stages. The aim is seizing political power; if the government’s will and capability collapse early in the process, so much the better. If unsuccessful in a later phase, the insurgency might revert to an earlier one. Later insurgents added new twists to this strategy, to include rejecting the need to eventually switch to large-scale conventional operations. For example, the Algerian insurgents did not achieve much military success of any kind; instead they garnered decisive popular support through superior organizational
skills and astute propaganda that exploited French mistakes. These and other factors, including the loss of will in France, compelled the French to withdraw.

I'm not sure I agree entirely with this characterization of Maoist insurgent doctrine, but they are the experts. In particular, I think that Phase 1 will be considerably more active than is implied above. But in any case, Phase 1 operations will try to avoid engagement with significant government military forces.

Other types of insurgency models are noted in FM 3-24. But more space is devoted to the Maoist model than all the others combined.

And while Mao's doctrine may not be the *only* model, it's a very useful one for Traveller referees. By breaking the insurgency down into discrete stages, it provides a framework for a referee to set his adventures.

 

[tbeard1999]

IThe Mao model is useful precisely because it is simple. Additional complexity does not often equal additional usefulness nor additional predictive power. The additional complexity more often describes a limited set of circumstances better but brings about an inability to describe what happens in general. We are trying to set up interesting games to run that do not overtax the suspension of disbelief. So I would say that simple is what we need. The three phases and movement between them give a gm a very useful shorthand to describe what is happening in a game.

Yeah, what you said.

To assert that we have entered into a new phase of history where previous axioms do not apply is dangerous at best. What Mao formulated works pretty well. Whoever knows these principles will be in a better position to exploit them and come out on top in an insurgency.

One thing I've noticed is how regularly folks assert that we've entered a new era in which past historical experience is irrelevant. And how consistently they get proven wrong...

In any case, Mao's model has two attributes that commend it. (a) It's acknowledged by military professionals to be a valid (if not the only) model for large insurgencies; (b) as you note, it's very "user friendly" for a Traveller referee.

The main thing which is uncertain is how high tech gets applied. This has been brought up by tbeard. As an insight to this I put forward that you might want to look at what sort of interactions the Europeans had when conquering their colonies. They were generally overrunning people with a lower tech level.

One thing that often strikes me about traveller is the very varied patchworks of tech levels in a subsector. There might not be a gravitic tech level place for 3 jumps or so. Where do these high tech troops come from? Whoever is applying high tech assets to an insurgency might be applying this force from a long way away. They will have considerable logistics issues to deal with in supporting their gizmos for an extended period in the field. As a general rule, insurgencies play out over a long period of time.

Yeah, one thing that I should have made clearer is that the tech level of the government can have a profound effect on the nature of an insurgency (and on its chances of success). A TL15 industrialized government, with grav mobile armies, effectively perfect real-time reconnaisance, etc., will pose a far different challenge for an insurgency than a TL8 agricultural government. If suspension of disbelief is to be maintained, referees must be prepared to explain how certain high tech advantages are countered by the insurgents. In my opinion, the two key high tech advantages that must be countered are:

1. Reconnaisance and information processing technologies. How are the insurgents able to pull off Phase 2 operations in the face of real-time enemy omniscience (satellites, RPV, sophisticated sensors, and the computing power to process that info in real time)?

2. Unlimited air mobility. In the 20th century, the helicopter (and air mobility) was the most effective weapon against insurgents. But because helicopters are relatively vulnerable, insurgents at least had some ability to combat them. This changes radically IMHO when fusion powered grav tanks arrive. Now you have heavily armored tanks that can fly faster and far longer than TL8 helicopters. How do the insurgents counter this? (I don't have this problem IMTU because there are no grav vehicles. Helicopters, tiltrotors, and VTOL jets -- fusion powered of course -- are the replacement for grav vehicles.)

 

[Kaveman Koder]

This is full of great ideas...

One of the great things about higher TLs, they are currently fiction. So these 2 points can be overcome, presuming the insurgents can get their hands on advanced equipment.

1. Filters, scramblers and electronic decoys spring to mind.

2. Having no idea how Anti-grav works, but you could have Anti-anti-grav strips. A bit like road spikes. Imagine flying along and grav kicks back in, ouch.

While the technology of war is to develop the advantage, soon follows tech or strategies to null that advantage. Often from the same side, as no-one likes their ultimate weapon turned back on themselves.

Obviously exceptions rule.

 

[epicenter00]

To assert that we have entered into a new phase of history where previous axioms do not apply is dangerous at best. What Mao formulated works pretty well. Whoever knows these principles will be in a better position to exploit them and come out on top in an insurgency.

Is it?

Here's my POV then:

The point of this thread is that governments fighting against insurgencies are not doomed - Viet Nam is not always the best model to use for this. There are plenty of other ways the chips can fall and GMs should remember this. This assertion I agree with wholeheartedly.

However, I'm sensing an implied undercurrent in some posters here that with the tools of massive intervention, higher technology, control of information, and elimination of participatory (democratic) government, insurgencies will be easily beaten. Furthermore, that these insurgencies will continue in the same old ways as in the 20th century to be ripped apart ever more easily by TL15 Traveller forces. This is the part I disagree with.

Given all of those factors, I really don't think past model of "organizing in the countryside" and whatnot can really accurately apply anymore. Insurgencies that try such a model (unless there are indeed compensating events) will fail - eventually insurgencies will abandon such models and explore new strategies until they find ones that work.

The 3I overacts and does some not so nice things. One trooper kills a little kid smashing a sensor position. They rough up some women while tossing houses. Bam. A few of those and then they only need a supply of monkey model weapons and officers/cell leaders to get phase two started.

Actually, this isn't necessarily a point. A key part of the modern tactic of fighting interventionist insurgencies (that is, where your combat troops are off in another country) depends very much on pervasive information control and for the lack of a better word, "spin" (some will call it "bread and circuses" but that's only part of it). It's a part of Information Warfare. It's really kind of bandwidth control - most people only have a certain amount of "bandwidth" (interest) for information, a bandwidth that varies from person to person. If you can saturate that bandwidth with information at least partially biased towards you, for enough of the population, you're winning the war on the home front. For instance, in the United States, a key element in the failure of the insurgent cause in places like Iraq or Afganistan is their inability to fill up the informational bandwidth of the American people with information against the American cause - indeed, the penetration of Arab media (pro-insurgent or not) is close enough to nil. Now, most of us may speak to people "who have heard" this, that, or the other thing. But really, how much can you believe of anything you're told from someone "who has heard" something?

---

As for an insurgency in higher tech environment, I would actually say that countryside model just doesn't work too well. One of the key advantages to organizing in the countryside is that there's simply so much countryside and only so many CO-IN troops. Insurgents can safely train, rest, and so on in a variety of remote or inaccessible areas. Checking all of these places could very well be impractical - involving overstretching limited forces and forcing CO-IN troops to fight on the insurgents terms. However, as TLs rise, the increasing sophistication of surveillance technology, the ability to cheaply, quickly, and safely move CO-IN troops into areas where they'll do the most good (and just as importantly, pull them out when they're injured, about to be overrun, or simply not doing any good) would eliminate a lot of the appeal of rural areas, eliminating a lot of the strategic benefits rural organization.

As an alternative, I would offer urban organization. In an urban situation, the CO-IN troops have to practice greater restraint - a lot of the really destructive weapons simply aren't appropriate anymore. Points in an urban area are a lot closer together - this actually would have an effect of partially negating the mobility advantage of TL14/15 grav vehicles (by this, I mean that a TL14 grav vehicle is going to have a massive advantage over a ground car or truck over even 60km or so in rural areas whereas in an urban area, a 5km distance might be good enough for an operational radius for the insurgents. A grav vehicle can still cover 5km a lot faster than a groundcar, but time advantage isn't quite as great - the insurgents might be able to strike-and-fade/scatter before the grav vehicles show up). There's a lot more hiding places in urban areas - there's Mao's sea (the civilian masses) as well as buildings, built-up areas, slums, etc. Perhaps an unexplored area hiding place of such groups could actually be Traveller equivalent of the walled communities of the very wealthy. Insurgents could hide in such places as the menial workers such places have and ignore. They could sneak in their fighters and weapons disguised as food deliveries, in gardening trucks, and so on. Such people would take a very dim view of Imperial troops coming around inspect things, as well, such people would also have a poor opinion of surveillance and similar activities that compromise their privacy. Turning a guard of such places would a big coup - the guy doesn't need to help the insurgents actively, just not inspect certain vehicles as rigorously as others.

Under such an insurgency, the point might be stockpile food and basic supplies, then work on disrupting civil infrastructure. The first goal might be to spike the jobless, and compromise the ability to civil authorities (police) to control certain areas - ie; intentionally creating slums and a disenfranchised class whose resentment can be tapped later.

The next step would be to disrupt the "bread and circuses" of the controlling regime - that is, pirating vid transmissions and so on until the government is forced to clamp down on video transmission, eliminating the entertainment that keeps a population passive and able to ignore the social situation around them. As well as creating an alternative information system so that people can get information that can be blatantly or subtly biased in favor of the insurgents. After all, if the sanitized information the extant media doesn't agree with what you see every day and you can't catch your favorite sit-coms on TV and the internet is spotty at best eliminating a lot distraction, you might start paying attention to the news outlets that do work - the ones controlled by the insurgents.

Then the final stage might be to simply disrupt the civil infrastrucutre - that is, prevent food deliveries, disrupt municipal water supplies (this doesn't even need to be outright water main destruction, even a few instances of widespread failure of water quality will make people leery, then you take away the option of bottled water, we'll say), prevent garbage pickup, stop up the sewers, and so on. When things start getting desperate, the insurgents can be there to hand out food and water, their cadres will be there to patrol the streets of the areas that have been abandoned by the police (who will always move to protect the privileged, who are after all, who ultimately control the paychecks of the police).

How's that for a model of urban insurgency? It's still obviously pretty rough.

 

[Garyius2003]

A traditional, in the hills or forest, type of gaining strength and training will not work in the 3I so long as the government has a few million credits a month to spend on mercs, or some corp will spend the money for them.

Any government with the cash to buy a few TL-13 hover bots and the ability to rent a TL-13 lift battalion and a grav tank company for a year or four will own the rebels.

Even a vietnam style think jungle will not work where the government can spend a few million credits, airdrop sensors, and pay for a Brigade level command post at TL-14 to monitor the sensors and command the above battalion and tank company.

Spend a little extra and rent a separate grav APC battalion and the government can rapid dispatch their own troops as the clean up nice guys after the off world high tech mercs act as the fist.

There needs to be a special reason why the rebel scum is able to assemble and train without the government being able to bring them to heel.

Figure 10 million credits per month for the above lift battalion, tank company, and high tech HQ. Most governments can afford that when the alternative is losing power. For a four year contract figure less than 500 million credits.

 

[samuelvss]

How's that for a model of urban insurgency? It's still obviously pretty rough.

I think you've got it. While the opportunites for surveillance are certainly greater in an urban environment, there are orders of magnitude [several] more stuff to look at and for, in a much tighter area. Ultimately, high-handedness can be provoked, with resulting collateral damage rather likely. There is no way to guard every bit of infrastructure, though the COIN sensors here may include thousands for every troop, literally crawling and buzzing over everything. THAT will make people love and trust ya...

The government will have huge information gathering capability, which will be subject to compromise. Agents can be turned, especially if they are local. If they are not local, then they are far less effective at developing local human sources.

Again, the bank robber analogy seems germain. The bank robber, picking the time and place of his crime, will never be prevented completely by technology; his opportunity costs may go up, and his chances may be greatly reduced, but as he is picking the time, place and manner while having as much time as he wishes to figure the system in which he opporates, he will never be completely deterred, or apprehended. Likewise the urban high-tech insuregency.

In certain resource-rich, totalitarian societies, they may have no chance of advancing. Technology changes the face but not basic nature of insurgency. The more advanced technologically, the more moving parts; the more moving parts, the more targets.

Jo-jo (12 yrs) chops a communication cable with a meat cleaver, and runs back to his friend's sleepover. Survaillance has made him; in 2 min a G-carrier sweeps in. The squad leader has a hard copy of the survaillance pictures of little Jo-jo, who has changed clothes and looks a bit like his kid brother. They, after fairly restrained interrogation and biometrical measurement, take Jo-jo away. Kids screaming. Gauss rifles and combat armor. Mother wailing and beating her breast. All on a live feed throughout the city. Holocrystals are being recorded in hundreds of homes. Meanwhile, the scene is being repeated many times over. Well, they sure got Jo-jo; maybe they'll come back for his family, and squeeze them!

The places where the "rural" insurgency may still be relevant is in a backwater without a great deal of money.

 

[BlackBat242]

David Weber has a nice depiction of a high-tech insurgency in "The Shadow of Saganami"*.

Quite usable for Traveller.



*one of the "Honorverse" books without the so-hated-here Manticoran officer.

 

[Garyius2003]

David Weber has a nice depiction of a high-tech insurgency in "The Shadow of Saganami"*.

Passed Midshipwoman Duchess Princess Blue Green strode from the Snottie Row towards the central lift of the RCM Cruiser Dogfish. She suppressed a brief shudder that she might encounter the Assistant Tactical Officer, who had been criticizing her for not polishing her brass enough and for not noticing something hidden in the last simulator session.

Double Master Chief Jane Smithson, the Command Chief of the Dogfish, noticed the shudder and made a note of it to discuss it quietly with the Captain. She briefly touched the service stripes reaching up to her elbow, each one representing 3 years–OVER FIVE T-YEARS- of service. Last night the second shift helmsman chief had mentioned to her, over a beer, that the ATO was only a commoner and that suggesting a correction to a princess of the blood such as Midshipwoman Green could led to trouble not only for ATO but for the whole ship. She thought “Being posted out here is bad enough, with only Class Two Revolt to keep us busy. What would be a worse posting than this be?”.

Green reached the bridge for her shift, and slipped into her console. She received the reports of her enlisted techs and reported to the officer of the deck. She set her people to scanning the area around the planet Westworld and the surface itself.

A thought raced through her head “If only we can find where the rebels are assembling their weapons and training with them.” Another thought raced just as quickly “Maybe I can get the ATO to like me if I find out more about him.”

Green barked out the correct orders to half of her techs, who turned off the secondary scanners and started a Class 1A analysis of the ATO’s complete service record. Over Three Million Billion Gigabytes of computer power were smoothly diverted to solving the problem.

 

[JustinInOz]

Urban Insurgency

As near as I can figure, modern models of insurgency could be found in Iraq today.

I am guessing the two examples would be what happened in Fallujah and what is happening in Sadr City.

I am only going on what I have gleaned from common media rather than any directed study of Fallujah. I think that the army decided to move against the insurgents by the application of conventional force. They ordered the city to be cleared out. They then rained artillery down for a while. Lastly they moved in with tanks flanked by infantry. They killed everyone they found.

Some of the insurgents fled. Some stayed. All who stayed were killed. According to Maoist doctrine, they should have fled. They did not have the strength to resist.

The real question that needs to be answered is overall was this action beneficial to the American position as a whole? Did it secure the peace in the city long term? Did the destruction of infrastructure outweigh the benefits of destroyed insurgent capacity? Did it win any hearts and minds? To answer this would require some direct research.

Sadr city seems to be a situation where in an urban environment the insurgents are winning at best or at a stalemate at worst. The American forces are simply erecting a wall around the whole place. They have conceded control of a whole section of the city to the Mahdi Army. Again, how this has progressed I am not too sure.

Another example of urban terrorism progressing to revolution could be found in the Stern Gang in the 1940's in then British Occupied Palestine.

 

[Garyius2003]

The Stern Gang is a nice situation for a GM to set up and run, but may be hard to explain in game so that the players will suspend disbelief.

You have a religious group which wants to retake its historical homeland from a power which freed it from some really bad guys (which is easy to work into a game).

Members of the same religion are in power up to the second level of government, and first level of media and finance in two of the three powers, including the power occupying the planet (harder to work in)

The same religion was just the victim of a fourth power which set up mass death camps and was stopped and utterly defeated by the other three powers (really hard for players to accept)

The religious group then turn on their saviours and start killing them and their families in terror attacks (this may be an easy sell, players are cynics)

The religious members in leadership positions then use the 'fact' that the remaining powers had moved too slowly in saving their people to justify the terror attacks (no player is going to think people are that stupid)

Stern Group type plots require a perfect storm of events and a public that can be led to positions that are fairly crazy.

 

[atpollard]

The Stern Gang is a nice situation for a GM to set up and run, but may be hard to explain in game so that the players will suspend disbelief.
[snip]
Stern Group type plots require a perfect storm of events and a public that can be led to positions that are fairly crazy.

Substitute Species for Religion. Some sort of Aslan-Vargr-Imperial-Zho thing ... after all, those aliens dont think like people ... who can understand them!!

 

[epicenter00]

The Stern Gang is a nice situation for a GM to set up and run, but may be hard to explain in game so that the players will suspend disbelief.

Let me try it.

The planet Diirukugaan was originally settled by Vilani during the time of the Long Night. It remained a backwards, pastoral world which dutifully fulfilled its few obligations to the Grand Empire of the Stars. Being a low population world with few significant mineral deposits, but gentle weather and a benign local ecosystem, the world was used in farming and food manufacturing efforts.

When the Grand Empire of the Stars, gripped by increasing ennui and decadence was no longer able to control significant portions of its empire, Diirukugaan was increasingly less-visited, then eventually entirely abandoned to its fate. This process was not officially posted, simply that the Imperial envoys visited the planet less and less frequently until eventually stopping entirely. The planet, ever dutiful, continued to process foodstuffs and store them in increasingly large systems of warehouses against the day the tax ships would return.

Instead, the world's next visit came from assayers of the Imperium of Man. The Terrans were looking to claim and integrate the entire Empire, and Diirukugaan was no exception. The Terrans, along with Vilani envoys were warmly received by the planet's inhabitants who saw recontact with the wider universe as a good thing. Unfortunately, along with trade, death came to Diirukugaan. Influenza UNWHO-1001921 sometimes known as the "Dalian Plague" was carried by one of the Terran envoys or perhaps one of the early Terran traders to the world. While leading to some deaths amongst Terrans, the influenza was devastating to the Vilani, whose immune systems were weaker than those of Terrans due to their early development on Vland. While vaccines, treatments, and quarantines existed and were successfully used on many worlds, on Diirukugaan, the disorganization of the world meant that treatments never arrived - Terran governors recorded a mortality rate of 78% of the world's inhabitants.

Despite this catastrophe, the RoM needed such foodstuff worlds desperately - several worlds within three or four worlds could not meet their basic foodstuff requirements. Although the option of using Vilani immigrants was considered (this time with proper vaccination), the RoM government instead utilized Terran immigrants from the European region. The plan, designed to cement actual Terran control of the former Vilani Empire by spreading Terran-loyal populations in the Empire, ran into a few problems on Diirukugaan.

The first was that the Terran immigrants to the world weren't really farmers. Instead, they were a part of a pastoralist movement sweeping Europe at the time. While many had lived on farms, many more had not and while attracted to the simple rural life, many had difficulty adjusting to a true backwater, where high-tech civilization was not simply minutes or an hour away at most.

The second was that Diirukugaan's agriculture was based around Vilani models - indeed Diirukugaan's ecosphere was similar to Vland's in utilizing levo amino acids. It was found that familiar Terran crops had a lot of trouble adapting to the ecosphere and the overstretched Imperium of Man was unable to allocate resources to engineer proper plants. Though the pastoralists attempted to adjust to using Vilani agriculture models their task was made more difficult by the fact that the Vilani farming population had been devastated by diseases brought by Terrans. Eventually engineered plants were brought from Terra (one of the last things to arrive in the decaying situation as the Long Night descended). This created a widespread belief the Terrans were racist - that they were willing to support their spoiled children with agricultural aid but not willing to ship cheap vaccines that could have saved millions of Vilani (like most good conspiracy theories, it's very difficult to prove or disprove given the bureaucratic nightmare that was the Ramshackle Empire) - that, and the majority Terran population renamed the world St. Vincent.

Through the centuries of the Long Night, both groups dwindled in population and indeed eventually the old grievances were mostly forgotten. The groups intermarried until even genetic tests for ethnicity had more to do with chance of recessive and dominant genes than "pure" family lines - siblings in many families might test "Vilani" while another might test "Solomani."

Beyond this the conflict could go a number of ways with these factors:

• The world's more "Vilani-appearing" population is discriminated against by Solomani settlers in the TI era.
• The Solomani Rim war sees the world taken (if it was in the sphere). Even if it wasn't, the TI settles a large number of Vilani on the world to create a loyal world. This is augmented by Vilani fleeing the Solomani Confederation.
• Historians digging up the past find records of the ancient grievances of the Vilani against the Solomani on their world. This is subsequently fanned into life by recently appointed Vilani nobles who desire to confiscate "Solomani" (or Solomani-appearing) natives the planet. Vilani university students subsequently start a branch of the Rachele Society.
• The world's name is changed back from St. Vincent to Diirukugaan.
• With the coming of the Rebellion, the faction controlling the world considers giving the world to the local Solomani governor in return an unofficial ceasefire.

Your "Stern Gang" would be: Vilani turning on the Imperial governors and the loyal Vilani government of the world as the rumor spreads their world is going to be given to the Solomani.

 

[BlackBat242]

Some interesting reads:


FM 31-21; 29 SEP 61; GUERRILLA WARFARE AND SPECIAL FORCES OPERATIONS
http://stevespages.com/zip/united_states_army_fm_31-21 - 29_september_1961.zip

FM 90-8; 29 AUG 86; COUNTERGUERRILLA OPERATIONS
http://stevespages.com/zip/united_states_army_fm_90-8 - 29_august_1986.zip

MCWP 3-33.5; 08 OCT 04; COUNTERINSURGENCY OPERATIONS
http://stevespages.com/zip/united_states_marine_mcwp_3-33.5 - 8_october_2004.zip

SMALL-UNIT LEADERS’ GUIDE TO COUNTERINSURGENCY
http://stevespages.com/zip/small_unit_leaders'_guide_to_counterinsurgency.zip

from: http://www.stevespages.com/page7c.htm

 

[tbeard1999]

Some interesting reads:


FM 31-21; 29 SEP 61; GUERRILLA WARFARE AND SPECIAL FORCES OPERATIONS
http://stevespages.com/zip/united_states_army_fm_31-21 - 29_september_1961.zip

FM 90-8; 29 AUG 86; COUNTERGUERRILLA OPERATIONS
http://stevespages.com/zip/united_states_army_fm_90-8 - 29_august_1986.zip

MCWP 3-33.5; 08 OCT 04; COUNTERINSURGENCY OPERATIONS
http://stevespages.com/zip/united_states_marine_mcwp_3-33.5 - 8_october_2004.zip

SMALL-UNIT LEADERS’ GUIDE TO COUNTERINSURGENCY
http://stevespages.com/zip/small_unit_leaders'_guide_to_counterinsurgency.zip

from: http://www.stevespages.com/page7c.htm

I'd also add that the US Army and Marines have significantly revised their counterinsurgency doctrine in FM 3-24 Counterinsurgency (2006). This is also (AFAIK) the first time that the Marines and Army have promulgated a unified counterinsurgency doctrine. So far, I've found it far more readable than previous FMs, but it's still pretty dry.