Interplanetary Airlines

[wbyrd]

Okay, while working on an idea for a passenger transport for in system flights. I ran some rough numbers, to set a price for interplanetary service. I came up with some rough numbers but was hoping for some other ideas from the crowd.

currently international flights are anywhere from 1000 to 3000 dollars ( US ) a seat.However after some rough number crunching I came up with a rate of around 500 per passenger one way Earth to Mars.

For people doing the math at home I used this thought process.

I used a a 100 ton Transport with seats for 98 people I came up with a monthly expense of only 317100 a month....

upkeep,payments,salary, fuel etc... then added salaries for another 20 people as ground support etc... coming up with around 370,000 a month.
transport Base cost: 71.388 Mcr
Payment 1/240th of cost
Maintenance 1/12 of 0.001 of total cost
Life support 4900 Cr/month figured as low berth for basic acceleration couches
Fuel 3500 Cr for 7 tons per month
Salary figured at half starship crew rate
Ground staff, 20 persons at 2000 cr per month average ( allowing for higher paid admin etc..)

Now assuming a flight to a near world takes around 16 hours at thrust 6 ( which I built the transport around...I came up with a rough number of passengers per month. 1490 passengers per month with the transport only in making 15 one way flights a month.due to turn around, maintenance and down time)

That gives me around 700,000 and change gross revenue...with each passenger paying 500 Cr for a one way flight from Earth to Mars. That means the company is making 1 credit per credit spent on the flight....which I am assuming is enough to make a profit for the company.

considering a starship passage for low berth is 1000Cr per parsec, and mid passage is 3,000, 500 to 750 credits seems reasonable for a "short" in-system hop.....unfortunately the number just doesn't feel right..

Am I missing something, or does anyone have any better ideas?

 

[mike wightman]

Cheap fusion and grav drives make commuting to the moon trivial - think subway costs rather than airline.

Aircraft today are an order of magnitude more expensive than Traveller jump ships, they are two orders of magnitude above in-system small craft.

In a high pop or industrial Tl12+ system i would think in-system travel is cheap.

My vision for life beyond TL9 is to move industry into space and clean up the planet. Space habitats for short commutes, and keep the main world for family homes etc.

 

[wbyrd]

I did some research on fuel costs for a 747, a single full load of fuel at current prices is .....impressive. the massive expense of jet fuel seems to be the vast bulk of air travel.

63,705 U.S. gal (241,140 L).....roughly 17 Displacement tons. At around $5 US a gallon that's 318,000 dollars for a full tank of gas....

with 419 passengers on board that's.... 750-760 dollars worth of gas per passenger.

since a 100 ton craft with type sX engines/power plant burns 1.75 displacement tons of fuel per week.... at a cost of 875 credits for refined fuel the fuel costs of a Traveller vessel are a very small fraction of the costs of a 747.

a fusion powered vessel can run for ten weeks on the same amount of fuel as a in a single tank load of fuel for a 747..... if it's running from earth to mars that's.... around 45 round trips, if it is running nonstop.


that's 1,620 Million miles on the same amount of fuel as a 747 burns in 6,100 miles.

 

[rancke]

Aircraft today are an order of magnitude more expensive than Traveller jump ships, they are two orders of magnitude above in-system small craft.

Really? I've always had the impression that it was the same order of magnitude.


Hans

 

[mike wightman]

An airbus Dreamliner and the 787 cost about $350-400million - that's for aircraft not as big as a 200t free trader.

 

[rancke]

An airbus Dreamliner and the 787 cost about $350-400million - that's for aircraft not as big as a 200t free trader.

That's 70-80 million credits.


Hans

 

[Sir Brad]

don't forget to convert to adjusted dollars, depending on what your buying a 3I Credit is worth between two and ten (in a couple of cases up to 20) 2014 US$.

 

[rancke]

don't forget to convert to adjusted dollars, depending on what your buying a 3I Credit is worth between two and ten (in a couple of cases up to 20) 2014 US$.

I used 1 CrImp = US$5. A simplification, I know, but one that gives a ballpark figure.


Hans

 

[mike wightman]

That's 70-80 million credits.


Hans

Depends on how you value the Imperial credit vs the dollar - the 3I credit was pegged to the 1977 dollar value, what would a dreamliner or 787 cost in '77 dollars?

 

[rancke]

Depends on how you value the Imperial credit vs the dollar - the 3I credit was pegged to the 1977 dollar value,

I took the value of the 1977 dollar expressed in 2014 dollars (well, I took it from memory and rounded off).

what would a dreamliner or 787 cost in '77 dollars?

One fifth the 2014 amount would be my guess.


Hans

 

[mike wightman]

So you are saying a 787 would be worth $60,000,000 1977 dollars since it's current price is $300.000,000?

I think you have it backwards

It would cost $1.5billion 1977

 

[Xerxeskingofking]

why? the dollar has not undergone deflation, so it's "value" should slowly decrease as inflation takes effect. ergo, one 77 dollar should be worth more than one 2014 dollar.

 

[rancke]

So you are saying a 787 would be worth $60,000,000 1977 dollars since it's current price is $300.000,000?

I think you have it backwards

It would cost $1.5billion 1977

So a loaf of bread (or a donut or whatever) that will cost you $1 today would have cost you $5 in 1977?

I think not.


Hans

 

[wbyrd]

it looks like a 2014 Us dollar is worth 4 1977 dollars...
http://www.in2013dollars.com/1971-dollars-to-2014-dollars
http://www.dollartimes.com/calculators/inflation.htm


so a 350 million dollar Airliner in 2014 is 87 million in 1977


that makes a 747 prices in 1977 dollars.(in Millions US Dollars)
747-8 367.8 Musd ( 91.95 million 1977 dollars)
747-8 Freighter 368.4 Musd (92.1 million 1977 dollars)
So that puts a 747 in the price range of a R-type fat trader.

If you consider the role of a 747 in our world, it serves basically the same function as the R-type does in the Traveller universe. It is a Low-medium weight vessel conveying cargo and people from one major population center to another. ( compared to ocean going freighters, which would be the capital class freighters)

 

[wbyrd]

a 2014 dollar is worth .25 1997 dollars

so divide the price of a 747 by 4...which means it's 1977 price is

747-8 367.8 = 91.95
747-8 Freighter 368.4 = 92.1

which is roughly the same price as an R-type Fat trader.

 

[Sir Brad]

Cost wise yes, role not so much, a Type A is roughly equivalent to a river barge (still in use today), a Type R is equal to a turn of the 20th century Tramp Freighter (roughly the same cure,passengers and cargo) that the pattern was still in service till the 1960's. the Type M is a late 1800's coastal Passenger Steamer like the ones that worked the Australia & American East Coast and Grate Lakes and Europe, faster and more comfy than trains of the day, before wide spread air travel their follow-on's dominated the North Sea until the rise of the modern North Sea Ferries (the type of ship not the defunct company) that ply the waters from Russia to Island to Spain.

 

[rancke]

Another factor is that per capita income of people on TL15 worlds is three times as much as that of people on TL7 worlds. So in one sense prices are three times lower for such people than for people on 2014 AD Earth.


Hans

 

[BlackBat242]

it looks like a 2014 Us dollar is worth 4 1977 dollars...
http://www.in2013dollars.com/1971-dollars-to-2014-dollars
http://www.dollartimes.com/calculators/inflation.htm


so a 350 million dollar Airliner in 2014 is 87 million in 1977


that makes a 747 prices in 1977 dollars.(in Millions US Dollars)
747-8 367.8 Musd ( 91.95 million 1977 dollars)
747-8 Freighter 368.4 Musd (92.1 million 1977 dollars)
So that puts a 747 in the price range of a R-type fat trader.

If you consider the role of a 747 in our world, it serves basically the same function as the R-type does in the Traveller universe. It is a Low-medium weight vessel conveying cargo and people from one major population center to another. ( compared to ocean going freighters, which would be the capital class freighters)

However, your numbers seem off for some reason - here are numbers from a web-page that was posted on-line in August 2004:
http://www.concordesst.com/faq.html

In 1977, the airlines bought their initial complement of 9 aircraft for around £23 million each ($46 million US dollars). This would equate to around £200 million ($350 million) at todays prices.

OK, granted that these aircraft were heavily-subsidized by the British & French governments - but their actual construction costs seem about the same as you give for a 747-8:

The development costs of Concorde were around £1.134 billion, which was funded by the UK and French governments. The cost to build the 16 production Concordes was £654 million of which £278 million was recovered through sales returns (this included spares, technical support, etc.).

This comes out to £40.875 million each ($81.75 million US dollars) build cost.

For a supersonic passenger airliner, not a subsonic one.


Yes, the inflation rate for aircraft has been higher than the general inflation rate (8.7x price increase for Concorde by 2004) - so the 747 would have cost much less in 1977 than you calculate.

 

[wbyrd]

Yes, the inflation rate for aircraft has been higher than the general inflation rate (8.7x price increase for Concorde by 2004) - so the 747 would have cost much less in 1977 than you calculate.

I dug around and found ...747-200: US$39 million (1976) soooo yes you are correct a 1977 version 747 is 1/3 what I estimated...so it seems the cost of jetliners is heavily inflated.

or it could be the 747 includes a lot more electronics, computers, and advanced ( for us) avionics that the original 747, the older 747s had less advanced engines, avionics and on board systems...so they would be cheaper.

 

[aramis]

Cheap fusion and grav drives make commuting to the moon trivial - think subway costs rather than airline.
.

The math of the design systems doesn't make it work that way.

It looks more like trains.

Using MGT...
_________________ 1G _______ 2G _______ 3G _______ 4G ________ 5G ________ 6G
_ 100.00 ________ --- _____ 32.71 _____ --- ____ 105.21 ______ --- _____ 225.82
_ 200.00 _______ 14.85 ____ 26.61 ____ 44.87 ____ 76.63 ____ 145.68 ____ 410.96
_ 400.00 _______ 13.01 ____ 24.10 ____ 40.92 ____ 69.46 ____ 128.52 ____ 357.74
_ 600.00 _______ 16.28 ____ 27.63 ____ 44.58 ____ 74.61 ____ 132.42 ____ 305.84
_ 800.00 _______ 17.85 ____ 29.30 ____ 47.13 ____ 75.54 ____ 130.99 ____ 298.64
1,000.00 _______ 17.57 ____ 28.85 ____ 46.16 ____ 73.72 ____ 129.15 ____ 279.30
1,200.00 _______ 17.73 ____ 29.61 ____ 46.92 ____ 76.43 ____ 133.57 ____ 307.19
1,400.00 _______ 17.55 ____ 29.23 ____ 46.73 ____ 74.97 ____ 131.83 ____ 297.86
1,600.00 _______ 17.41 ____ 28.96 ____ 46.17 ____ 74.61 ____ 129.02 ____ 285.60
1,800.00 _______ 17.30 ____ 28.75 ____ 45.75 ____ 73.71 ____ 128.24 ____ 281.42
2,000.00 _______ 17.22 ____ 28.58 ____ 45.42 ____ 73.01 ____ 126.43 ____ 274.01

Max ____________ 17.85 ____ 32.71 ____ 47.13 ___ 105.21 ____ 145.68 ____ 410.96
Avg ____________ 16.68 ____ 28.57 ____ 45.46 ____ 77.08 ____ 131.58 ____ 302.22
Min ____________ 13.01 ____ 24.10 ____ 40.92 ____ 69.46 ____ 126.43 ____ 225.82
Median _________ 17.36 ____ 28.85 ____ 45.96 ____ 74.61 ____ 130.07 ____ 297.86
StDev ___________ 1.57 _____ 2.10 _____ 1.81 _____ 9.53 ______ 5.41 _____ 47.79

Rate, Max _______ 1.00 _____ 1.83 _____ 2.64 _____ 5.90 _____ 8.16 ______ 23.03
Rate, Avg _______ 1.00 _____ 1.71 _____ 2.73 _____ 4.62 _____ 7.89 ______ 18.12
Rate, Min _______ 1.00 _____ 1.85 _____ 3.15 _____ 5.34 _____ 9.72 ______ 17.36
Rate, Median ____ 1.00 _____ 1.66 _____ 2.65 _____ 4.30 _____ 7.49 ______ 17.16
Average Rate ____ 1.00 _____ 1.77 _____ 2.79 _____ 5.04 _____ 8.32 ______ 18.92

Basal Ton Cost _ 18.25 ____ 30.68 ____ 47.27 ____ 86.61 ____ 136.99 ____ 690.01

Charged price _ 35.00 ____ 65.00 ____ 100.00 ____ 185.00 ____ 305.00 ____ 550.00

The upper section is operational cost, assuming no down time, per payload ton per day. The charged cost runs at CT profit margin (worked from J1 merchants and CT book rates).

In other words, it's cargo space. adding seats adds very little, a credit a day or so, to half a ton.

Mars, at 2 G, should be charged between 1 and 4 days, depending upon where in orbit. (Median travel is about 42 hours, plus launch, land, load, and unload.) Luna should be about 0.28 day at 1G, 0.22 day at 2G... which is due to launch, land, load, and unload taking about 3 hours total, and the trip being around 4 G-hours.

Luna should be about Cr5.25 per passenger in seats, or about Cr12 in a private cabin.

Mars should be between Cr130 (closest approach), and Cr520 (opposition) at 2G... it's far enough that 1G is actually more for longer trips. That's 1-4 days on a 2G system ship.