I'm glad we finally agree on that.
I've never disagreed on that.
By extension from the first point: if a single J1 route is optimal then a chain of such J1 routes will be viable (for a given volume of trade).
Wrong. The trade is not transitive because the cost of transportation is not transitive.
What I think you're missing is that in a chain of systems A - B - C that are J1 apart there is A-B trade, B-C trade and A-C trade and as the A-B and B-C trade will optimally be J1 then J1 ships (of the right size for the volume of trade) can profitably run the whole route A-B-C.
Yes, but what you overlook is that if you have a route A-B-C-D-E-etc. then sooner or later, and most often sooner than later, one of the worlds in the string will be a low-population world that will interrupt the string of profitable one-parsec links.
That doesn't mean they're serving the A-C trade; it means they're serving the A-B trade and B-C trade *sequentially*. The direct A-C trade is more likely (depending on the rules) to use J2 ships.
Yes, but except in those rare cases where the traffic is low enough that a single J1 ship can carry all the A-B trade and all the B-C trade, the A-B trade will most likely be carried by one set of J1 ships and he B-C trade by a different set of J1 ships.
This is my point about layers of trade. Where it's possible there will always be J1 trade as the bottom layer. Depending on the route there may also be higher Jn layers as well.
The operative clause is 'where it's possible'. Most J1 routes will be interrupted by links in the chain where is isn't possible.
The size of J1 ship that is viable for such is likely to be limited to the lowest volume of trade in the chain.
example: four systems A - B - C - D each J1 apart where the volume of trade is:
A-B: 1000 units
B-C: 100 units
C-D: 1000 units
then it may be that only ships of the right size for the B-C part of the route are viable for the whole route.
More likely you'll have a 1000 unit J1 fleet handling the trade between A and B, a 100 unit fleet handling the trade between B and C, and another 1000 unit fleet handling the trade between C-D. But, sure, a 900 unit fleet between A and B, 3 100 unit fleets between A, B and C, and another 900 unit fleet between C and D is possible. But what happens with the next link where the trade between D and E is 1 unit?
Either way it is still A-B, B-C, C-D trade *sequentially* not the direct A-D trade which might be more likely (depending on the rules) to go in J3 ships.
Even if the rules makes J3 a bit more expensive than J1, the trade between A and D would go by J2+J1 rather than by J1+J1+J1.
Anyway the main point is there is always a case for Free Traders anywhere there's a J1 route. The question on each route is how many other layers of trade ships might there be in addition.
Free traders are tramp traders. They survive in the cracks of the regular trade. As such, their numbers will be small by comparison with the regular trade. And it's the regular trade that makes a trade route.
Hans