But.....The galaxy is 8 to 10 billion years old and if there are spacefaring aliens in the area of the Shapely Center (something I doubt, too much radiation there) then they could have been here travelling at 1/2 the speed of light a LOOOOOOOOONG time ago.
But I don't even ask for a ship, since we haven't seen any, how about a single glimmer of a radiated signal of any kind....nada.
My point originally was that the study quoted above actually HURT the chances of life outside our own biosphere becaquse it acutally cuts DOWN the area to be considered to a torus of volume around the galactic center, eliminating quite a bit of the galxay's volume and a number of stars.
Pappy
Friend Pappy,
Fair enough. This is what I get for posting too late at night, and for not being clear.
I've been discussing various related topics and not flagging when I'm speaking for myself, and when I'm speaking based off of pre-conditions others have put forward ("if conditions", for lack of a better term).
To clarify:
Do I believe there is life out there? Yes, but by life, I mean everything from microbes on up ...
Do I believe there is sentient life in our galaxy? Very probably yes. But by sentient life, I'm only referring to life which "thinks" -- I would include porpoises and some whales in this category, for example -- I'm not pre-supposing anything else (culture, tool use, level of advancement, spaceflight)
Do I believe there is spacefaring sentient life out there in the galaxy, creatures more advanced than humanity, who have found a way to sidestep the lightspeed barrier? It seems unlikely, as much as I might prefer it to be otherwise.
When discussing the galactic-core-as-home for such advanced beings, I was only offering the most common theory for their point of origin
if such beings existed (some folks wanted to discuss along those lines, IIRC).
Your data is newer than what I was working from (although I had come across it before, and promptly forgot it. D'oh!) and it does change the scenario we were working from substantially. It makes my jokingly-described "Gleebian Alliance" of starfaring races even more unlikely.
The one thing I do stubbornly believe, however, is that IF we take as given that advanced, starfaring races exist, then I highly doubt that Earth is of significant or general interest to those races. Taking advanced races as a given also implies a galaxy replete with life, with life existing at every point along the developmental scale between microbes and the Gleebian races.
As much as it goes against the human sense of self-importance (some might well say arrogance), IF such a lively galaxy exists, I can't imagine that our little pre-hyperspace world out on the edge of the galactic rim would be of much interest to anyone.
Someone mentioned galactic conquerors and C19th century "culture bearers", but this ignores the "if conditions" which allow the advanced races scenario. IF the galaxy holds advanced life, then there will likely be a lot of it -- and such beings will be more enmeshed in their own politics, than coming out to bother with us primitives.
The "Jannissaries" SF novels aside, asking why the advancd aliens haven't conquered us or co-opted us into their politics (presuming again that they do exist, for the discussion) seems rather akin to asking why the White House or Islamic extremists haven't conquered or co-opted primitive Amazonian tribesmen to fight in their ongoing struggle.
Anyway, that's where I'm coming from. Others may see it differently, and that's why they call it discussion.
I'm going to be offline for an indeterminate length of time, starting tomorrow. I trust everyone can keep a lively, civil conversation going in my absence.
Thanks for talking,
LL