duran.goodyear
SOC-8
One of the things about 2300ad that always interested me was the somewhat delayed look at the way technology developed, in that humanity was able to make advances in the way he lived, but something happened to slow down certain aspects in the development of technology.
in the 1980's it was easy to forsee a devistating war between the powerblocs of the day, reducing the majority of man kind to scrambling for food day to day instead of trying to rule the world from far over seas.
One of the principal reasons for war, which I'm sure a lot of you are aware of, is the control of resources. Petrochemicals being the principal one today. Obviously the need to fight over a resource stems from the finite amount of that resource that might exist in the world.
This leads me to the Peak Oil thought.
Its been a very quiet, but well regarded theory and ever approaching fact that we'll all have to deal with, that there is a finite amount of Oil in the world. And that we're getting close to maxing out on our ability to increase the amount we can produce daily. As economies develop world wide, they increasingly need more and more oil to support them selves. Its estimated in some circles that we have between 0(on the extreme low end), and 100 (on the very high end) years left before we reach a point where the demand for oil out paces the amount we can produce.
The economic effects of this are staggering, when you consider how much of every facet of the world economy needs Oil to simply exist.
Peak oil I suggest, is the reason 2300ad is a slightly, less developed world view of things then one might expect from science fiction.
Written in the 1980's, 2300ad didn't forsee the stunning advances that are more plausible today in the realm of computers, bio-tech, cybertech, material tech, and other nifty things that make me say "damn" these days. Recent game publications such as "Transhuman Space", and works of fiction from people like Peter F Hamilton are presenting a world in which artificial intellegences, bio-technology, and user interfaces out-strip the views of the future that GDW presented in 2300ad.
War was the answer GDW had for the slow down in human development, a massive world war that ended human civilization and required a massive rebuilding of almost all things.
I'd like to present that lacking the massive powerblocs that lead to this theory in the 1980's, we can use Peak Oil as the same massive cataclysm that reduces mankind to putty for a few decades.
Peak Oil will destroy the world economy in a conflagration of resource wars, and economic collapse that we havn't even begun to imagine. In a world where oil could cost 10, to 100 times as much as it does now, almost every aspect of life will change, and requre a radical rethink as to how we do things. Lots of people will die in war, and in the destruction of the international trade network. Massive regions of the world tha t rely on external food production will not be able to buy food, as the oil needed to fuel the ships, and trucks that move the food radically increases in cost. The simple math that we currently are only able to find 1 new barrel of oil, for every 4 we pull from the ground will accelerate, and eventually it will become unteniable.
Deacades of civil strife, resource wars, and economic devistation will stagnate the advances of human civiliazation.
Only the nations that are cheif exporters of resources, with low population will be spared, but only assuming the survive the invasions and wars to capture their resources. Out of these survivors will sprout the rebirth of humanity, and the eventual path that could lead us to the 2300ad we forsee in the games from GDW and now what Colin and crew are working on.
Radical new technologies based upon high technology materials, and energy storage, that allows for a hydrogen power grid, supplied by advanced fusion, and solar energy will be the principal energy source for the homeworlds. Plastics will be replaced by advanced synthetics. And eventually, man will rebuild. But not with out a massive cost in life.
One of the darker prophecies of the peak oil theorists is the massive loss in the transportation network of the world will result in mass starvations. One estimate suggests that towards 4 billion people will die due to starvation, disease, and the conflicts that will be spurned from lack of food and the destruction of the agriculture industries.
Mankind will rebuild, but only in the areas that keep him alive, and the radical advances in bio-technology, cyber-technology, and computer technology will not happen nearly as quickly in a world where man is more interested in feeding his children, and rebuilding from the wars of his past.
Space Travell I suspect will be spurned by the smarter groups realizing that the resources of one world will never support an entire population forever, and that even if its not petrochemicals, spreading humanity to the stars, and relying on a diverse number of eco-systems will help ensure humanities survival, and disperse the demands placed on any one eco-system.
I would propose that the advances we are forseeing in computer, bio, and cyber tech for the next 50 years could be put on hold and possibly even abandoned in development for the next 200 years if not farther depending on your view of your own campaign, allowing the "low-tech" view of 2300ad to exist, with radical new technologies slowly working their way in to the world of 2320 and beyond.
The world presented in books like the Transhuman campaign for gurps are facinating, and easily visable if you have a passing knowledge in how fast our knowledge of biotech is advancing, but the technologies presented in such books radicaly shift the nature of the 2300ad we all have a passion for, and easily destroy the cowboy / old west feel of things. The distinct lack of a quick bio-war answer for the kafers makes things much more tense, when we are still fighting with projectile weapons, and have let radical advances in bio-tech languish for 200 years.
Anyway, I hope this is some food for thought, and maybe a bit more realistic then trying to shift things geo-politicaly to try and make a world war happen. Though of course all of these things could come to pass if a big rock hits the earth, and the dust blocks the sun out for a few years as well
Comments?
in the 1980's it was easy to forsee a devistating war between the powerblocs of the day, reducing the majority of man kind to scrambling for food day to day instead of trying to rule the world from far over seas.
One of the principal reasons for war, which I'm sure a lot of you are aware of, is the control of resources. Petrochemicals being the principal one today. Obviously the need to fight over a resource stems from the finite amount of that resource that might exist in the world.
This leads me to the Peak Oil thought.
Its been a very quiet, but well regarded theory and ever approaching fact that we'll all have to deal with, that there is a finite amount of Oil in the world. And that we're getting close to maxing out on our ability to increase the amount we can produce daily. As economies develop world wide, they increasingly need more and more oil to support them selves. Its estimated in some circles that we have between 0(on the extreme low end), and 100 (on the very high end) years left before we reach a point where the demand for oil out paces the amount we can produce.
The economic effects of this are staggering, when you consider how much of every facet of the world economy needs Oil to simply exist.
Peak oil I suggest, is the reason 2300ad is a slightly, less developed world view of things then one might expect from science fiction.
Written in the 1980's, 2300ad didn't forsee the stunning advances that are more plausible today in the realm of computers, bio-tech, cybertech, material tech, and other nifty things that make me say "damn" these days. Recent game publications such as "Transhuman Space", and works of fiction from people like Peter F Hamilton are presenting a world in which artificial intellegences, bio-technology, and user interfaces out-strip the views of the future that GDW presented in 2300ad.
War was the answer GDW had for the slow down in human development, a massive world war that ended human civilization and required a massive rebuilding of almost all things.
I'd like to present that lacking the massive powerblocs that lead to this theory in the 1980's, we can use Peak Oil as the same massive cataclysm that reduces mankind to putty for a few decades.
Peak Oil will destroy the world economy in a conflagration of resource wars, and economic collapse that we havn't even begun to imagine. In a world where oil could cost 10, to 100 times as much as it does now, almost every aspect of life will change, and requre a radical rethink as to how we do things. Lots of people will die in war, and in the destruction of the international trade network. Massive regions of the world tha t rely on external food production will not be able to buy food, as the oil needed to fuel the ships, and trucks that move the food radically increases in cost. The simple math that we currently are only able to find 1 new barrel of oil, for every 4 we pull from the ground will accelerate, and eventually it will become unteniable.
Deacades of civil strife, resource wars, and economic devistation will stagnate the advances of human civiliazation.
Only the nations that are cheif exporters of resources, with low population will be spared, but only assuming the survive the invasions and wars to capture their resources. Out of these survivors will sprout the rebirth of humanity, and the eventual path that could lead us to the 2300ad we forsee in the games from GDW and now what Colin and crew are working on.
Radical new technologies based upon high technology materials, and energy storage, that allows for a hydrogen power grid, supplied by advanced fusion, and solar energy will be the principal energy source for the homeworlds. Plastics will be replaced by advanced synthetics. And eventually, man will rebuild. But not with out a massive cost in life.
One of the darker prophecies of the peak oil theorists is the massive loss in the transportation network of the world will result in mass starvations. One estimate suggests that towards 4 billion people will die due to starvation, disease, and the conflicts that will be spurned from lack of food and the destruction of the agriculture industries.
Mankind will rebuild, but only in the areas that keep him alive, and the radical advances in bio-technology, cyber-technology, and computer technology will not happen nearly as quickly in a world where man is more interested in feeding his children, and rebuilding from the wars of his past.
Space Travell I suspect will be spurned by the smarter groups realizing that the resources of one world will never support an entire population forever, and that even if its not petrochemicals, spreading humanity to the stars, and relying on a diverse number of eco-systems will help ensure humanities survival, and disperse the demands placed on any one eco-system.
I would propose that the advances we are forseeing in computer, bio, and cyber tech for the next 50 years could be put on hold and possibly even abandoned in development for the next 200 years if not farther depending on your view of your own campaign, allowing the "low-tech" view of 2300ad to exist, with radical new technologies slowly working their way in to the world of 2320 and beyond.
The world presented in books like the Transhuman campaign for gurps are facinating, and easily visable if you have a passing knowledge in how fast our knowledge of biotech is advancing, but the technologies presented in such books radicaly shift the nature of the 2300ad we all have a passion for, and easily destroy the cowboy / old west feel of things. The distinct lack of a quick bio-war answer for the kafers makes things much more tense, when we are still fighting with projectile weapons, and have let radical advances in bio-tech languish for 200 years.
Anyway, I hope this is some food for thought, and maybe a bit more realistic then trying to shift things geo-politicaly to try and make a world war happen. Though of course all of these things could come to pass if a big rock hits the earth, and the dust blocks the sun out for a few years as well
Comments?
