Speed of colonization

[Adam Dray]

I suspect this has been discussed here before, but my search didn't yield fruit.

How quickly does a sentient species explore star systems once they've reached, say, jump-2?

How quickly does that species (say the Imperium) colonize those systems and bring them into the imperial fold?


If you can be in a new system 2 parsecs away in two weeks, you basically can be 100+ parsecs from home in a year. Since (in our 2D Traveller universe), the number of worlds within reach is a function of the square of the distance, the real limiting factor seems to be spaceship production.

Colonization seems to be the solution to that. How long does it take to build a class-A port and start chunking out more scouts? How many scouts can a class-A port build in a year?

Has anyone simulated this yet?

Also, what's the effective reach of any interstellar empire? I'm pretty sure this is an "asked and answered" question, but I don't know the result. The sizes of the Vilani, Solomani, and Zhodani empires suggest an answer, I suppose.

I guess what I'm getting at is, how quickly does the "frontier" border last before its "newness" wears off and prospectors and other outlander types move deeper into the wilderness of space? How far do you have to travel to "go where no man has gone before"?

 

[GypsyComet]

Social pressures, available technology beyond the jump drive itself, and of course noisy neighbors all complicate the picture.

 

[whartung]

I've dabbled with it a little.

I think is happens in phases.

First, you need to scout the systems, and explore the planets. I don't know if I would consider a forward exploration camp to be a colony, more an outpost of sorts.

You need a claiming infrastructure to establish rights for land. Who claims it, who owns it, how is it governed.

Then you have the initial colonization. The core group that establishes a foothold to start building infrastructure. Once you have that down to a routine you can start going parallel, getting bootstraps going on several worlds at once.

Finally you have migration as populations move off the home world and out in to the frontier.

I think once Jump was discovered, it would be a solid 10-20 years before scouting begins, and even then with only a few ships I think. As shipyards are developed, ships could start heading out. But you're still proofing and perfecting the jump drive itself, deep space, frontier operations, etc.

I think you'll see ships making double or more jumps (i.e. a J1 ship with tankage for 4 jumps). I think you'll see a preponderance of ships boats and pinnaces used to exploration and planetary operations, so as not to potentially risk the ship in unknown worlds.

The scientists will get first crack, crews will be quarantined and studied. That'll be another 10 years or so.

Then the initial waves of explorer outpost will go out, or commercial exploitation parties.

Unlike earth, I think a civilization will be overly cautious until they get a reasonable cross section of alien encounters. Not wanted to bring back a Great Plague, or anything like that.

The next question is whether the exploration will be state or commercially funded. I think the initial push would be state funded up until the exploration outpost go out. With those the commercial sector will kick in, looking for exploitable resources, setting up trade to the outposts, and eventually early explorers/"mountain men" will start to arrive. Those with the resources to get a starship ride.

Beyond a simple system scan (i.e. identifying major bodies), it takes time to explore the systems. I think the initial push would be to make identify wilderness refueling opportunities in order to promote more expansion and scouting options, and that would run fairly quickly as long as the ships are reliable and hold out.

But it will take further study and time to better map systems as suitable for land fall, etc.

I have an empty 1/4 sector at home I was dabbling with. I'll play with it and see if I can come up with some actual numbers about exploration times with a J1 ship.

 

[McPerth]

I suspect this has been discussed here before, but my search didn't yield fruit.

How quickly does a sentient species explore star systems once they've reached, say, jump-2?

How quickly does that species (say the Imperium) colonize those systems and bring them into the imperial fold?

That will depend on many factors. The ones ointed by GypsyComet are only ones. Proximity of available planets, comptaribility with their biologies (if any), etc. can also be fators on it.

Old (classic) 2300AD had some interesting points about newly forme colonies, but I'm not sure how exportable to traveller they are...

If you can be in a new system 2 parsecs away in two weeks, you basically can be 100+ parsecs from home in a year. Since (in our 2D Traveller universe), the number of worlds within reach is a function of the square of the distance, the real limiting factor seems to be spaceship production.

If you can go 2 parsecs in 2 weeks, you'll reach about 50 parsecs in a year, not 100. That does not void you point, though...

Colonization seems to be the solution to that. How long does it take to build a class-A port and start chunking out more scouts?

For what I've read about it, I guess that was answered in T4ocket Empires, though I have not read it

How many scouts can a class-A port build in a year?

According CT:TCS that will depend on the population in this system, though I'm not sure about it being really acccepted...

 

[maksimsmelchak]

I suspect this has been discussed here before, but my search didn't yield fruit.

How quickly does a sentient species explore star systems once they've reached, say, jump-2?

I'd say at least three weeks if preparations were already made and a local launch point was nearby.

Otherwise, it is more likely that the expanding frontier would be a few months or more away. Farther frontiers could be years away...

I would think that it would be fairly easy to find colonists from the Aslan (Ihatei) or high=population human worlds... The grass is always greener...

Of course, there is Traveller background that brings up penal colonies and other kinds of involuntary, unhappy forced colonists...

Shalom,
Maksim-Smelchak.

 

[McPerth]

The grass is always greener...

Where there's grass...

Not all planets are garden...

 

[GypsyComet]

I would think that it would be fairly easy to find colonists from the Aslan (Ihatei) or high=population human worlds... The grass is always greener...

This type of outbound pressure never goes away, really. It is why I have no real problems with all those "small town worlds" in the established Imperium.

 

[maksimsmelchak]

This type of outbound pressure never goes away, really. It is why I have no real problems with all those "small town worlds" in the established Imperium.

If a world had any promise at all, I'd think it would go from a "Lo" (Low population) rating to a much higher one in nothing flat... Even with each jump taking a week, word gets around fats and "gold rushes" (Lanthanum rushes) would attract attention quickly...

I think there are probably far too many "Lo" worlds.

Small towns are fine, but in a galaxy where billions and trillions of sophont-sized populations, I'd think that it would be very easy and likely to spread out the population love.

I'd also really like to see a more cosmopolitan galaxy. Don was working on that. Adding sophont codes to worlds and making them more cosmopolitan. I don't think he was able to finish his Geonee project before he made it to a better place. RIP.

Shalom,
Maksim-Smelchak.

 

[Garnfellow]

I did a simulation of the settlement of Magyar Sector a couple of years ago. I'll see if I can find my notes. Basically, at the start of the Interstellar Wars the Vilani had settled subsectors D and H and by the end of the IW the Terran Confederation had claimed a big chunk of the rest of it (depending which CT map you look at). I was curious if one could construct a plausible scenario for this.

Note that "claimed" does necessarily mean "settled," but even still that's a lot of territory in a very short time, complicated by two factors: the Terrans didn't have J-3 until the Eighth Interstellar War, and even the earliest sublight expeditions would have barely had time to reach Magyar by the end of the IW.

So I assumed Terrans began colonizing Magyar well before they had J-3, forcing them to pass through Vilani territory. So somehow the colonists had either implicit or explicit permission from the Vilani authorities to emigrate.

I assumed the process began between the Third and Fourth Interstellar Wars. So by -2350 you had Terran surveys of the closest empty Magyar systems, and by -2330 you had some of the first colonies. I assumed the Terrans were engaged in a crash course settlement program, trying to claim and seed as many worlds as quickly as they could.

Basically I took an empty map of Magyar and tried to map out a logical sequence of settlement. I assumed it would take 5 years to survey a system and designate it worth colonizing, 5-10 years of robotic bootstrapping to start laying down basic infrastructure, and then another 5-10 years before you got a real colony with something like Pop 3 or 4. Because Magyar was largely unclaimed, I assumed priority would be given to habitable worlds first. I also assumed that the Terrans were engaged in all sorts of genetic and biomedical work to goose birth rates and give them a solid 3% average annual population growth. I think I also assumed a colony failure rate of something like 5% for every 50 years.

On a parallel path, I assumed you had a handful of dissident Terran populations establishing their own colonies outside both the Confederation and Ziru Sirka.

 

[Adam Dray]

I assume that the physical aspects of the UWP can be determined from very far away, with a good set of instruments, even at TL 8-9. Any decent scouting mission should carry a wide range of long-distance scanners capable of detecting planets and some signs of life and tech level 6+. You don't actually have to jump there to find another civilization.

That reminds me, is there a set of system generation rules for the deep frontier where no one has gone before? I'll bet GT has it, right?

 

[robject]

How quickly does a sentient species explore star systems once they've reached, say, jump-2?

How long does it take to build a class-A port?

How many scouts can a class-A port build in a year?

Also, what's the effective reach of any interstellar empire?

how quickly does the "frontier" border last before its "newness" wears off and prospectors and other outlander types move deeper into the wilderness of space?

How far do you have to travel to "go where no man has gone before"?

Exploration Radius is 2D Months from the Edge

Exploration is probably based on the psychology/sanity of the sophont. Life support and replacement parts can always be piled up. If an exploration team can hold it together for around a year, then the typical limits to exploration would be several months one way, and several months back. In other words, the exploration radius for a sophont is something like 2D Months, one way, from the edge of an empire.



Growth is One Parsec Every 2D Years

The Third Imperium took about a thousand years to develop to its current form, from Sylea to Vilis - a distance of 150-odd parsecs. Assuming that population growth ignored rifts and other sophont populations and still somehow exactly matched longwise radial expansion, that would be 0.15 parsecs per year, or one parsec every seven years... in other words, an empire increases one parsec in radius every 2D years.

Starting from scratch, that would be one subsector in 35 years, and the entire sector in around 125 years.

It seems too fast. You might argue that many worlds were formerly First and Second Imperial, so Sylea had a leg up. You might also argue that growing the Imperium was more like blowing up a balloon (just filling up some partially occupied space) than growing a shrubbery (building a new structure from scratch).

If you feel that's too fast (for example for infrastructure to keep pace), then add a +DM, roll more dice, or both.

They may be slower starting, and they may slow down once they're a certain size, and things change with technology, but in the basic scheme of things I prefer a flat measurement.

Some sophonts have slower imperial growth rates. So, one parsec per 4D years. Or 6D. Or never.




Empires are Bound by the Speed of Communication

All empires in Traveller are bound by speed of communication, so an empire can be approximately one year in travel distance from core to edge (e.g. Jump-4, average, from Sylea to Vilis, if I recall correctly). Beyond that you will have multiple empires as the fringes secede.



Many Kinds of Class A

Class A starports come in all sizes and shapes. Of course the biggest starports are likely to be Class A (and B) starports, but there are tiny ones as well. And remember that worlds can build starships separate from starports.

But if your point is about infrastructure, just interpolate back from the "One Parsec Every 2D Years" and you can decide how fast infrastructure can be set up. Again, if that's too fast, add a +DM, or roll more dice, or both.

 

[mike wightman]

Cough - Solomani rim expeditions - cough
Cough - Zhodani core expeditions - cough

Also it took the third Imperium 200 years to reach its current size, give or take a subsector or two.

 

[Adam Dray]

Exploration Radius is 2D Months from the Edge
Growth is One Parsec Every 2D Years
Empires are Bound by the Speed of Communication
Many Kinds of Class A

Thanks for the lengthy reply!

Is all of this canon or speculation? If canon, do you remember where it's canonized?

If speculation, what did you base it on?

 

[maksimsmelchak]

Thanks for the lengthy reply!

Is all of this canon or speculation? If canon, do you remember where it's canonized?

Canon.

Shalom,
Maksim-Smelchak.

 

[aramis]

The general maximum size of an empire is 6 months round trip from capitol to edge, historically. Many space empires in fiction double this. (The main body of the 3I is about 3 months one way by fastest j4 routing... so is the Solomani Rim.)

Notethat, historically, when empires exceeded that size, they usually fragmented into successor states focused upon regional capitols. The most classic cases are the Mongols (Kyïvan Rūs, Han China), Rome (Byzantium, Holy Roman, Greco-Roman Egypt).

In Cultures, cultural regions tend to be a week to a month from their notional capitols.

 

[GypsyComet]

Cough - Solomani rim expeditions - cough
Cough - Zhodani core expeditions - cough

Also it took the third Imperium 200 years to reach its current size, give or take a subsector or two.

More like 400. The reclaiming of Daibei and Magyar from the Aslan hadn't even begun in 200, a lot of Deneb was still in Vargr hands, and the Imperium was just starting to push into the Solomani Rim. The Peace of Ftahalr setting the Aslan border won't be signed until 380, and the border around Solomani space remained unstable for a couple centuries after that.

 

[Condottiere]

If you have to be arbitrary, two months is about as efficient as you can get in terms of time and distance.

The Chinese were in a unique position, since they had no real near peer competitor, but had inherent structural weakness that a smaller efficient opposing force could take advantage of.

 

[BlackBat242]

It also depends on whether a given culture's mindset has a planet starting to colonizing others "as soon as it can" (aggressive & risk-taking) or if it will wait "until it has to get rid of excess population due to population-vs-carrying-capacity calculations" (deliberate and conservative).

There can be a very great difference between the two.

 

[aramis]

It also depends on whether a given culture's mindset has a planet starting to colonizing others "as soon as it can" (aggressive & risk-taking) or if it will wait "until it has to get rid of excess population due to population-vs-carrying-capacity calculations" (deliberate and conservative).

There can be a very great difference between the two.

The culture and mindset issue is part of the Zhodani Core Missions - which were a VERY specific, very expensive, and very focused response to a stimulus no other sentients in Imperial-Known space had experienced... They have a very uniform, very stable, and very self correcting culture, a very specific reason to head where they did, and colonized to support a comm net that has a 40-year travel time round trip for information.

That the Zhodani can enforce their leadership's will upon the people, and all the leadership shared the vision, and it's doable in the needed time span... No other group, except maybe the hivers, could accomplish as much, let alone retain something recognizable over that distance as a unified culture. And even they don't have a unified culture over that distance, but do share enough that they at least recognize each other as not being from a different base culture.

That the Droyne do so without communication is one of the big secrets of Adv 12...

 

[maksimsmelchak]

That the Droyne do so without communication is one of the big secrets of Adv 12...

Aramis, please IM me about this secret. I do not recall it and I certainly read Adventure 12 back in the day...

I had always thought that the Droyne possess telepathy or psionic communication methods...

Of course, my memory is imperfect and I couldn't remember the Chamax a few years ago...

Shalom,
Maksim-Smelchak.