Supporting Pacification Campaigns

[Matt123]

Just finished reading an interesting study on troop densities required for "contingency operations", in other words pacification campaigns such as the occupation of Germany, Japan, Malaya, etc.
http://carl.army.mil/download/csipubs/mcgrath_boots.pdf

It concludes (with caveats) that a force density of around 13 troops per 1000 population is required, with a third of that dedicated to police work. It includes local indigenous forces/police in that number.

The implication to pacification campaigns in Traveller is interesting, assuming tech or doctrine has not found a way to reduce these numbers.

A mid pop system, say pop 6 with 5,000,000 citizens, would need 65,000 troops/police to pacify it. If say close to half that came from local forces/police, that still leaves around 35,000 troops required to be bought in and supported by naval assets. Including support troops thats about 35 Battalion equivalents or 4 Divisions depending on your force structure.

Obviously every factor over pop 6 adds another "0" to our force needs. A pop 8 world may need 400 Divisions, a pop 9 or 10 world may be virtually un-pacifiable by virtue of the logistical problems...

Anyone want to hazard a guess at the shipping needs of such a pacification force?

 

[DaveChase]

Before attempting to answer your question on logistics for forces, you might want to consider the following:

Air/Space Superiority
Planet type (Desert, Jungle, Water, etc)
TL difference
Goverment type of planet versus intented Imperium desire of government
If there is a valuable resource(s ) that is desired, needed, or required from the planet


Each of these will help determine how many troops on the ground are really needed.

Dave Chase

 

[jawillroy]

IMTU, there are some polities that tend towards occupying worlds, and they use ground forces in pacification campaigns. The (not so very) big Empire doesn't like to get invested that way: they'll gain space superiority and blockade the system instead. "Who cares what the blue-skyers get up to? When they decide they want to deal, they'll step in line."

'Course, there's always room for some Macguffin like an unobtainium or handwavium mine onworld that the Empire needs access to, so I suppose if it's important enough they'll send in an army - but I'm not sure they'd need to pacify the whole planet for that if they've got space superiority.

 

[rancke]

Supporting pacification campaigns

Just finished reading an interesting study on troop densities required for "contingency operations", in other words pacification campaigns such as the occupation of Germany, Japan, Malaya, etc.

Quick note to prevent misunderstandings: The Pacification Campaigns (capitalized) is a historic period where the Imperium undertook a variety of campaigns to convince neighboring worlds to join up, ranging from friendly persuasions over economic pressures to boots on the ground. What you're talking about here covers the military version of such campaigns, but in the Imperium the other kinds are included in the term too.

A mid pop system, say pop 6 with 5,000,000 citizens, would need 65,000 troops/police to pacify it. If say close to half that came from local forces/police, that still leaves around 35,000 troops required to be bought in and supported by naval assets. Including support troops thats about 35 Battalion equivalents or 4 Divisions depending on your force structure.

I think tech levels would be a significant factor, although I'm at a loss to guess just how they'd influence the numbers. At some point you're going to need warm bodies to actually patrol the streets, and I've no idea if those 13 per 1000 (at TL7, presumably) are already the bare minimum or if you can do with less.

Anyone want to hazard a guess at the shipping needs of such a pacification force?

The Keith-class 30,000T transport from GT:Ground Forces can ferry a complete Army light infantry brigade, or a grav tank brigade and a rapid interface battalion, in both cases including equipment. There is room aboard for 395 officers and 3,398 other ranks (Not including the crew of 301+80 (the 80 is a frozen watch)).

A Keith supposedly costs MCr9,618. There are some huge discrepancies between the GT economic system and the other Traveller versions, but I think the ship-building costs are comparable. I could be wrong, though.


Hans

 

[Starviking]

The Pacification Campaigns (capitalized) is a historic period where the Imperium undertook a variety of campaigns to convince neighboring worlds to join up, ranging from friendly persuasions over economic pressures to boots on the ground.

And genocide in the areas the Vilani were tasked with pacifying, if I recall my Traveller Canon correctly...

 

[Matt123]

Before attempting to answer your question on logistics for forces, you might want to consider the following:

snip...

You forgot world size, increasing surface area to be patrolled...
And regardless it can be assumed the invader has the advantage in space/close orbit/higher tech and high pop worlds are inherantly valuable.

But nope, I'm not considering any of those variables. The numbers of troops on the ground regardless are extremes on a traveller scale when it comes to troop movements and logistics.

And thats before you consider pop 8 worlds where the numbers jump to 5,000,000 troops and pop 10 worlds where you need 500 million troops on the ground interacting with the population.

Forget for a moment the variables you mention, how would your fleet support such an operation and I guess how many operations like this can be conducted at the same time.

 

[Matt123]

Quick note to prevent misunderstandings: The Pacification Campaigns (capitalized) is a historic period where the Imperium undertook a variety of campaigns to convince neighboring worlds to join up, ranging from friendly persuasions over economic pressures to boots on the ground. What you're talking about here covers the military version of such campaigns, but in the Imperium the other kinds are included in the term too.

I guess I'm being a bit vague, I'm interested in both the Pacification campaigns and year 1100 3I. Differant Naval strategy may be involved but the need to supply and support X million troops on planet Y will be the same.

I think tech levels would be a significant factor, although I'm at a loss to guess just how they'd influence the numbers. At some point you're going to need warm bodies to actually patrol the streets, and I've no idea if those 13 per 1000 (at TL7, presumably) are already the bare minimum or if you can do with less.

Likewise I'm not sure how tech would improve the situation. The studies author covers from tech 5 through to 8 (1899 to current day) to come up with 13/1000. Most of the tech advances over the last 100 years has been in the feild of war fighting with relatively little interest in this area up to recent times.

The core need to be fullfilled in this study (& others) is to give the population the sense of security it needs to carry on its daily routines and re-establish its own governing and policing structures. Its hard to picture how this can be fulfilled without boots on the ground.

The Keith-class 30,000T transport from GT:Ground Forces can ferry a complete Army light infantry brigade, or a grav tank brigade and a rapid interface battalion, in both cases including equipment. There is room aboard for 395 officers and 3,398 other ranks (Not including the crew of 301+80 (the 80 is a frozen watch)).

A Keith supposedly costs MCr9,618. There are some huge discrepancies between the GT economic system and the other Traveller versions, but I think the ship-building costs are comparable. I could be wrong, though.

Transporting a Light Infantry Brigade per month from say 2 jumps away, gives 3,500 x 12 = 42,000 troops transported in a year at a cost of (MCr9,618 x 10% maintenance costs) / 42,000 troops = 23,000 Cr per trooper to get them there.

For a pop 8 world needing 5,000,000 troops built up to a peak in two years, that takes 60 Keith Class transports. 115 Trillion credits in transportation costs alone (thats the maintenance on 60 Keith Class for two years, not the purchase price).

So 23,000Cr to get a trooper to a world. Is there a need for an unarmed cheap Navy mass troop transporter? STUFT civilian liners would cost 16,000Cr per trooper (gotta consider the empty return trip).

How about the logistics needs?

 

[DaveChase]

Ok, so we will not figure in all the important variables.

Read Hammer Slammer novels to get an idea of how different cultures (fictional) handle having troops on the ground.

I still say that the type of goverment (Traveller versions) will make a huge impact on the # of required troops on the ground in military presence is required.

Back on the Hammer Slammers take for a bit;
The Imperium might hire mercs to do the job (professional companies) if it would be cheaper.
Also along the same lines, maybe they gave the rights to the world to some noble with the clear understanding that the world must start falling in line with Imperium standards with in a set time frame.
Then it is up the to the noble (family) to decide how best to bring the world to it's knees. I mean how to intergrate fully the world in to the empire of the Imperium.

Dave Chase

 

[aramis]

The canonical 3I doesn't hire mercs; they activate them. A merc license is also equipped with a reserve activation clause (see Invasion: Earth)...

 

[Matt123]

The canonical 3I doesn't hire mercs; they activate them. A merc license is also equipped with a reserve activation clause (see Invasion: Earth)...

Interesting, my first response was that Mercs would definately not be cheaper than Imperial Troops. Even "activated" they would still not be cheaper, they just wouldn't have an option to turn down the job and will be in a far weaker negotiating position for fee's.

My other observation was that Hammers Slammers have little to offer a campaign where formation based armed resistance has all but stopped, with what remains being mostly Platoon and Company level infantry actions.

Light Infantry Mercs, Special Forces and Intelligence units tho' would be very usefull.

 

[Matt123]

Ok, so we will not figure in all the important variables.

lol, its not that they aren't important, its that they do not "solve" the problem of how to transport 5 million troops.

The study indicates that cultural factors do have an impact (lets call government type part of culture) and should indeed be taken into account in mission planning, along with numerous other variables that defy turning this 13/1000 figure into a military accountants wet dream.

But again its the scale of troops needed on a pop 8 plus world which is the problem, not the fine tuning. If your lift capacity is 50,000 troops over 2 years (2 or 3 Keith Class transports needing two jumps each way), you cannot get close to even half of the 5 million potentially needed within a practicle time frame. Not even if government type/culture reduce your needs on this planet by 50%. Of course on the next planet these factors may increase your needs by 50%.

 

[aramis]

Interesting, my first response was that Mercs would definately not be cheaper than Imperial Troops. Even "activated" they would still not be cheaper, they just wouldn't have an option to turn down the job and will be in a far weaker negotiating position for fee's.

My other observation was that Hammers Slammers have little to offer a campaign where formation based armed resistance has all but stopped, with what remains being mostly Platoon and Company level infantry actions.

Light Infantry Mercs, Special Forces and Intelligence units tho' would be very usefull.

Conscripted Merc Units are FAR cheaper for a government... you don't equip them, don't train them, don't pay their peacetime salaries nor recruiting budgets, and actually can tax them, to boot, during "peace" time. At least if you have some other areas for them to be working (like letting your subordinate governmental units fight each other, as the 3I does).

Further, if you do have a peacetime need, you can make it competitive bid...

And when conscripted, you treat them as expendables.

 

[Icosahedron]

Much depends on the reason for pacification. Do you want to eliminate their capability to wage war? Do you want to punish them for past actions? Do you want to extract minerals? Do you want to profit from their trade and taxes?

Nukeing the top 100 cities to rubble will go a long way to reducing troop needs if you're a 'dark empire' and don't have any use for the population or city infrastructure. Creating a de-militarized zone around a mine or other resource may be all that's necessary to extract resources.

As others have said upthread, the only reason to pacify the entire population is if you want their trade and taxes - ie the population digit itself is what you prize - and in that case, air/space superiority and a total blockade will probably be more effective than troops on the ground. Let internal factions battle it out on the ground while you monitor from orbit and 'help out' here and there, and when a polity that wants to trade has 'pacified' all the others for you, you open the Red Zone and trade.

I think a space empire would have to function with 500 year or thousand year plans. Pacifying an entire planet in 2 years is probably not feasible, nor is it a likely strategic objective - give it 200 years OTOH and you can have what you want with no troop transport problems at all.

For the shorter term objective, though, spy drones may reduce patrol needs, and community spies have always been effective - remember what it said about those figures including locals...?

 

[Matt123]

Conscripted Merc Units are FAR cheaper for a government... you don't equip them, don't train them, don't pay their peacetime salaries nor recruiting budgets, and actually can tax them, to boot, during "peace" time. At least if you have some other areas for them to be working (like letting your subordinate governmental units fight each other, as the 3I does).

Further, if you do have a peacetime need, you can make it competitive bid...

And when conscripted, you treat them as expendables.

Ok, I'll give you that. When measured against long term expenditure Mercs are cheaper.

Treating them as expendible tho' seems a waste when there are barely trained conscripted civilians available. Not that there is much call for that kind of operation in these campaigns.

 

[Matt123]

Much depends on the reason for pacification. Do you want to eliminate their capability to wage war? Do you want to punish them for past actions? Do you want to extract minerals? Do you want to profit from their trade and taxes?

You are confusing winning the war vs winning the peace. This phase is after combat operations have achieved its goals. Their ability to wage war is crushed, they have been punished, all thier resources are now yours and yes, you also want their trade & taxes. But... there is a segment of the population that aren't co-operating with the new owners. IMHO, situation normal for any invaded system.

As others have said upthread, the only reason to pacify the entire population is if you want their trade and taxes - ie the population digit itself is what you prize - and in that case, air/space superiority and a total blockade will probably be more effective than troops on the ground.

History tells us otherwise...

Let internal factions battle it out on the ground while you monitor from orbit and 'help out' here and there, and when a polity that wants to trade has 'pacified' all the others for you, you open the Red Zone and trade.

That requires taking apart the system of governance, neutralizing anything contributing toward stability, supplying arms to favoured factions, watching mass refugees, mass genocides, starvation and chaos as essential infrastructure is destroyed by competing factions. And then hoping you can have a stable government over what population is left scratching an existance in the rubble created by a full blown civil war that you started.

Worst of all, the prize after 200 years of fiddling is no longer a high pop productive system capable of contributing to the Empire.

I think a space empire would have to function with 500 year or thousand year plans. Pacifying an entire planet in 2 years is probably not feasible, nor is it a likely strategic objective - give it 200 years OTOH and you can have what you want with no troop transport problems at all.

I was refering to a troop buildup over two years. It will take perhaps decades to create stability.

All I can see using the 200 year plan of encouraging chaos, instability, regime change and surgical strikes from space is 5 to 10 generations developing a culture of resistance and self sufficiency. The recession in tech level, reduction in population and fragmentation of society into local warlord clans will work to prevent any successful assimulation of what was once a high pop productive system.

You can't bomb your way to a happy compliant population. It works if all you want to achieve is stealing the resources, but thats not what the 3I wants. It wants self governing populations that grow and develope, engage in trade and pay Imperial taxes.

For the shorter term objective, though, spy drones may reduce patrol needs, and community spies have always been effective - remember what it said about those figures including locals...?

Yep, it should be remembered tho' that the need is to develope stability and trust in the new regime. Interactions with Imperial representatives on the ground (ie the front line troops) is a key part of that.

Spy drones (no doubt very small ones), will help significantly with intel gathering and a network of local "spies"/"loyalists" will also help. Neither tho' contribute to having a presence on the ground. (and community spies are not includes in those figures).

Hearts & Minds is an old cliche', but the message behind it has been learnt by the French, the British and more recently the US. To build trust and faith takes regular interaction with the new authorities, the supply of infrastructure as well as effective "policing" operations.

 

[dean]

Not sure area is really a factor in consideration, as like 90% of the population is found in 10% of the land area (cities).

Further, there would rarely be instances where there would not be some faction vying for power that would become allied with the pacifying forces and provide a lot of the troop strength and intelligence apparatus (see Jerry Pournelle's King David's Spaceship[.

 

[Icosahedron]

You are confusing winning the war vs winning the peace. This phase is after combat operations have achieved its goals.

Wouldn't winning the war require the import of similar troop numbers anyway? Often, troop numbers are reduced during occupation.

That requires taking apart the system of governance, neutralizing anything contributing toward stability, supplying arms to favoured factions, watching mass refugees, mass genocides, starvation and chaos as essential infrastructure is destroyed by competing factions. And then hoping you can have a stable government over what population is left scratching an existance in the rubble created by a full blown civil war that you started.

Worst of all, the prize after 200 years of fiddling is no longer a high pop productive system capable of contributing to the Empire.

All I can see using the 200 year plan of encouraging chaos, instability, regime change and surgical strikes from space is 5 to 10 generations developing a culture of resistance and self sufficiency. The recession in tech level, reduction in population and fragmentation of society into local warlord clans will work to prevent any successful assimulation of what was once a high pop productive system.

Omelettes and eggs.
Perhaps you are confusing a 200 year plan vs a 20 year plan.
200 years is a very long time. Long enough for Earth to progress from TL4 to TL7 and Pop8 to Pop9 without outside assistance. (And assistance is there for the asking, all you have to do is trade nicely...)
And if, by any chance, 200 years isn't enough - double it.

There is one way you might do it in a generation or two (and it's been done before) with ratios around 1:100 or so - take all the children into an Imperial enclave at age 2 and release them back into the community as well-adjusted Imperial Citizens at age 20.

You can't bomb your way to a happy compliant population. It works if all you want to achieve is stealing the resources, but thats not what the 3I wants. It wants self governing populations that grow and develope, engage in trade and pay Imperial taxes.

The population doesn't need to be happy, just compliant, though admittedly that doesn't seem to be the 3I's way in the OTU.

Or does it?

Stealing resources. Imperial taxes. The difference is...?

 

[Patron Zero]

Strength Rather Than Slaughter

Just a question but would not isolation be a more 'economic' and possibly humane application of force than subjugation ?

Trade embargo or out and out 'sequestering' of travel, from said world or system, could work as either a long or short term solution in some situations.

Mind I'm drawing a loose parallel with the Cuban blockade and the Viet Nam Conflict, both of the 1960s era.

 

[Matt123]

However we reduce the number of troops needed on the ground, there is still a need for substantial troop movements into and out of recently conquered systems.

If the Keith class costs 23,000Cr (25,000 with life support costs) to get a trooper to a world, assuming the source world is 2 jumps away and civilian liners cost 16,000Cr per trooper (gotta consider the empty return trip) here's an alternative.

A 25,000 dton unarmed freighter in Imperial Naval service, the IMTT is modified to take within its 15,000 dton cargo capacity, up to 12,000 military cots and associated portable air and water life support. The equivalent of a reinforced Light Infantry Division with support services including its own divisional catering corp and supplies.

Generally kept in the service of Naval Depots or Sector Admirals, the Navy is wary of allowing mass troop transport capability at lower echelons.

When carrying troops IMTT's do not operate alone and they are not intended to operate in hostile environments. IMTT Captains literally have thousand of lives in thier hands.

Classed as "juicy targets" by unfreindly powers, the reality is that the IMTT moves from secure system to secure system to get to the interdiction fleet. Its lack of armament reflects that it will always operate in the company of Naval Fighting Ships.

(HGS design)
Class: Imperial Mass Troop transport
Tech Level: 13

USP
EX-L422243-000000-00000-0 MCr 10,084.390 25 KTons
Bat Bear Crew: 131
Bat TL: 13

Cargo: 15,369 Passengers: 5 Fuel: 5,500 EP: 500 Agility: 1 Shipboard Security Detail: 25
Craft: 3 x 50T Modular Cutters

Architects Fee: MCr 100.844 Cost in Quantity: MCr 8,067.512

Detailed Description
(High Guard Design)
25,000.000 tons standard, 350,000.000 cubic meters, Close Structure Configuration
16 Officers, 115 Ratings
Jump-2, 2G Manuever, Power plant-2, 500.000 EP, Agility 1
Bridge, Model/4 Computer
3 50.000 ton Modular Cutters (Crew of 3, Cost of MCr 0.000)
5,500 Tons Fuel (2 parsecs jump and 28 days endurance)
No Fuel Scoops, No Fuel Purification Plant
108 Staterooms, 5 Middle Passengers, 3,369 Tons Cargo
12000 Military Cots (1.000 ton, Crew 0, Cost MCr 0.125)

COST
MCr 10,185.234 Singly (incl. Architects fees of MCr 100.844), MCr 8,067.512 in Quantity

The IMTT can ship troops at a cost of 5,600 + life support, total 7,600Cr. Like above that assumes the trip from source to destination is two jumps away.

To build up 1,000,000 off world troops over two years would take 4 IMTT's and cost 7.6 Billion Credits in transport costs alone (hmm, just realised I called a BCr a TCr in an earlier post, I'll edit that).

Whilst there is nothing in canon (I vaguely recall a 4 bed, 4tn bunk room somewhere) on military cots, bunk/cots are fairly luxurious for LI. The biggest problem will be keeping the troops busy, but then thats why you have Officers...

 

[Matt123]

Mind I'm drawing a loose parallel with the Cuban blockade and the Viet Nam Conflict, both of the 1960s era.

Neither of which ever ended up paying taxes to the blockaders.

The problem with using blackades is they don't work. Like bombing, blockades are good for reducing a countries economy and infrastructure, but lousy at getting countries to trade with you or pay you taxes.

Blockades & bombing through history have resulted in defiance, the endurance of hardship and the uniting of factions against a common outside enemy.