Supporting Pacification Campaigns

[Matt123]

Wouldn't winning the war require the import of similar troop numbers anyway? Often, troop numbers are reduced during occupation.

No and especially no if the 3I has a tech advantage and dominates close orbit. To win a war requires achieving set objectives, for example destroying the war fighting capabilities of the En. This will take less resources the greater the tech disparity. Every time the En concentrates their forces, your high tech forces get to move in and destroy them supported by ortillery.

To provide the newly "liberated" population with the sense of safety to carry on their daily activities, enjoy public infrastructure and start thinking about governance, you need a lot of sophonts on the ground talking with and protecting the population. Some of which will/may come from existing local police/paramilitary & military forces.

I can picture an Imperial TL15 Division cleaning up a TL10 Army 20 times its size quite comfortably. Come the "peace" tho' you only have enough troops to guard the seat of government, the space port and some public infrastructure. The population will feel you are "hiding" in your fortified zones, coming out only for raids. The cities will be hot beds of insurrection and resentment and the hills will belong to the freedom fighters. Your 10-12,000 troops have no chance of winning over a high pop world.

Omelettes and eggs.
Perhaps you are confusing a 200 year plan vs a 20 year plan.
200 years is a very long time. Long enough for Earth to progress from TL4 to TL7 and Pop8 to Pop9 without outside assistance. (And assistance is there for the asking, all you have to do is trade nicely...)
And if, by any chance, 200 years isn't enough - double it.

Equally we haven't had anyone bombing our infrastructure and playing us off against each other. Hmmm...

At what point does the cost of interdiction exceed the cost and taxation profits of invasion. 200 years, 400 years, maybe 50 years?

There is one way you might do it in a generation or two (and it's been done before) with ratios around 1:100 or so - take all the children into an Imperial enclave at age 2 and release them back into the community as well-adjusted Imperial Citizens at age 20.

ooo... you would make a great evil dictatator! lol. That might work, will have to think that one through. Offering off world scholorships might do it without the Dr Evil connotations. Hmmm, where has it been done b4? I'm thinking the Romans had a version...

 

[Higgipedia]

I can picture an Imperial TL15 Division cleaning up a TL10 Army 20 times its size quite comfortably.

Indeed. Look at the beginning of WWII and the Axis versus the Poles and Ethiopians. That was only a one or two TL advantage. Or even the U.S. and British forces versus the Iraqis at the start of OIF (and that is pretty much just the upper tier of a TL vs. the lower tier). The armor bonuses alone will be huge.

Come the "peace" tho' you only have enough troops to guard the seat of government, the space port and some public infrastructure. The population will feel you are "hiding" in your fortified zones, coming out only for raids. The cities will be hot beds of insurrection and resentment and the hills will belong to the freedom fighters. Your 10-12,000 troops have no chance of winning over a high pop world.

Again, look at Iraq and Afghanistan. Both required "surges" of troops to become effective. Afghanistan, with a much more militant and fanatical population is starting to look like even more troops would be required to "win" that peace.

I am in total agreement with Matt123 on this. In a straight fight (an invasion), the technologically superior forces will mop the floor with the inferior. In an asymmetric environment (most occupations/insurgencies), the technological advantage can be nullified. You just need to look at the news of the most recent U.S. conflicts to see proof of this.

 

[DaveChase]

When you are figuring out your Transport cost per Marine, are you assuming that they are awake and moving during the loading, Jump week and in system travel?

Or are you assuming cold storage/low berthing?

Dave Chase

 

[rancke]

When you are figuring out your Transport cost per Marine, are you assuming that they are awake and moving during the loading, Jump week and in system travel?

Or are you assuming cold storage/low berthing?

The Keith-class seems to carry awake troops. Cramped, but awake.


Hans

 

[Matt123]

When you are figuring out your Transport cost per Marine, are you assuming that they are awake and moving during the loading, Jump week and in system travel?

Or are you assuming cold storage/low berthing?

Dave Chase

I prefer to avoid low berths for troops, they inflict casualties... I'd rather they were awake and prepping for the job.

 

[Icosahedron]

No and especially no if the 3I has a tech advantage and dominates close orbit. To win a war requires achieving set objectives, for example destroying the war fighting capabilities of the En. This will take less resources the greater the tech disparity. Every time the En concentrates their forces, your high tech forces get to move in and destroy them supported by ortillery.

This is true. With a large tech disparity you may need more troops to occupy than to invade.
If you choose to occupy.

However, I still think that this:

To provide the newly "liberated" population with the sense of safety to carry on their daily activities, enjoy public infrastructure and start thinking about governance, you need a lot of sophonts on the ground talking with and protecting the population. Some of which will/may come from existing local police/paramilitary & military forces.

is only true in the short term - a decade or so, perhaps as much as a generation. After that, people will just get on with life, as they have done throughout history, and some faction or other will take control and create a government. If that government is willing to trade nicely, so be it. If not, start over. Repeat as required.

I can picture an Imperial TL15 Division cleaning up a TL10 Army 20 times its size quite comfortably. Come the "peace" tho' you only have enough troops to guard the seat of government, the space port and some public infrastructure. The population will feel you are "hiding" in your fortified zones, coming out only for raids. The cities will be hot beds of insurrection and resentment and the hills will belong to the freedom fighters. Your 10-12,000 troops have no chance of winning over a high pop world.

Again, the hills will only belong to the freedom fighters for a decade or two - and then only if there is a ground presence for them to fight against. If there's nobody to fight, they'll leave the hills to the shepherds soon enough and join the people in the towns earning money and raising families.
Eventually, their grandchildren's grandchildren's grandchildren will decide their civilisation can greatly prosper if they carry out interstellar trade, and they will request such an opportunity when they are ready. After 200 years, the past war will be no more relevant to them than the American War of Independence is relevant to transatlantic trade today.

At what point does the cost of interdiction exceed the cost and taxation profits of invasion. 200 years, 400 years, maybe 50 years?

That depends on whether the invasion and occupation actually works, and how long it takes if it does. If occupation results in brushfire insurgencies and the maintenance of guerrilla armies for generations, occupation could turn out to be a very costly strategy - which I believe was the point of the original post?

ooo... you would make a great evil dictatator! lol. That might work, will have to think that one through. Offering off world scholorships might do it without the Dr Evil connotations. Hmmm, where has it been done b4? I'm thinking the Romans had a version...

I'll take that as a compliment, since in one of my campaigns I run an evil empire.
I'm always interested in testing out Dr Evil strategies on a forum. I like the offworld scholarships, though we're entering into transport problems again. It'll be much cheaper to ship teachers in than students out.

Re-education is a common pacification technique. It would be difficult to think where it hadn't been done before. Perhaps not on such a scale, but it's pretty central to millennium-term planning.

 

[Major B]

I prefer to avoid low berths for troops, they inflict casualties... I'd rather they were awake and prepping for the job.

I agree for the invasion force, but if there is a requirement to move in large numbers of troops for the pacification campaign I think the bulk would be shipped cold. If planning was done right (how big is that if?) they should be prepping dirtside on a staging base nearby while the invasion is happening, so the week in jump isn't critical prep time for any group past the first wave of reinforcements.

 

[Matt123]

I agree for the invasion force, but if there is a requirement to move in large numbers of troops for the pacification campaign I think the bulk would be shipped cold.

Are you allowing for the low berth death rate? 4+ to survive assuming good endurance and a Medic-2 skill is present. Thats a 3/36 death rate or 8.33%. For every 10,000 troops sent, 833 die. Costly in terms of lost experience, not to mention the impact on unit morale afterwards.

I generally use CT, later editions might not be as harsh.

 

[rancke]

Are you allowing for the low berth death rate? 4+ to survive assuming good endurance and a Medic-2 skill is present. Thats a 3/36 death rate or 8.33%. For every 10,000 troops sent, 833 die. Costly in terms of lost experience, not to mention the impact on unit morale afterwards.

I generally use CT, later editions might not be as harsh.

Later editions are definitely not nearly as harsh, nor is that appaling death rate ever mentioned in any of the background material (and that includes CT material), so to reconcile the differences, I assume that the CT rate is either for badly maintained tramp freighters or a game artifact to make things exiting for player characters (or both).

Also, I assume that there are (at least) three different ways to put someone into low berth: 1) No preparation (you lie down in the berth and press a button), in which case you'd need a full medical team working in a fully equipped hospital to be revived, 2) Some prep (10 minutes supervised by a competent medic), in which case you can be revived safely in 10 minutes provided a competent medic supervises, and 3) Lots and lots of prep, in which case you can be revived safely by pressing a button. (Note: In all cases your chances deteriorate if you lie too long in the berth; I haven't defined "too long", but it's years and decades, not weeks and months. In one adventure of mine a full crew had been in low berths for five centuries and only two of them survived being revived in a hospital)-


Hans

 

[Matt123]

snip...
is only true in the short term - a decade or so, perhaps as much as a generation.

The historical operations with sufficient troops generally lasted less than that. Taken from this study;

- Philippenes 1899 to 1901 with peak numbers 68,000 troops over 1900, over half in Luzon achieving 12.5/1000
- Post war Germany 1945 to 1949 with peak numbers immediately after Germanies surrender. One year after surrender the ratio was 15.75/1000.
- Post war Japan 1945 to 1949 also had peak numbers immediately after Japans surrender. Japan was governed through its existing (demilitarised) government structures and police force. After 12 months the ratio including Japanese police was 4.92/1000
- Mayala 1948 to 1960 had 30,000 troops, 10,000 malayan police, 30,000 special constables and 15,000 home guard. Troop numbers remained fairly stable while police numbers increased to 40,000, special constables to 44,000 and home guard to 250,000. Just using initial figures tho' we get 85,000/4.86 mill population or 17.5/1000
- Bosnia 1995 to 1999 maxed at 60,000 troops for 4 million population or 15/1000
- Kosovo 1999 had 41,618 troops for 1.97 million population or 21/1000

The majority lasted 4 years or less. The notable exception being Malaya where for 12 years insurgents hide "in the hills". With Imperial SOP's shortening or eliminating the British learning curve, even the Malaya scenario would have lasted well under a decade.

Again, the hills will only belong to the freedom fighters for a decade or two - and then only if there is a ground presence for them to fight against. If there's nobody to fight, they'll leave the hills to the shepherds soon enough and join the people in the towns earning money and raising families.
Eventually, their grandchildren's grandchildren's grandchildren will decide their civilisation can greatly prosper if they carry out interstellar trade, and they will request such an opportunity when they are ready. After 200 years, the past war will be no more relevant to them than the American War of Independence is relevant to transatlantic trade today.

It could be said the AWI was the result of a failed pacification programme. Certainly blockades didn't work to force the rebelious Patriots to see the error of their ways and start paying taxes again! Damn those rebels, lets bomb their harbour cities, that'll show them who's boss!

That depends on whether the invasion and occupation actually works, and how long it takes if it does. If occupation results in brushfire insurgencies and the maintenance of guerrilla armies for generations, occupation could turn out to be a very costly strategy - which I believe was the point of the original post?

Well, it was actually on how do you transport and supply such a large occupation force, we have digressed somewhat...

At this point we have a 200-400 year plan of bombing from orbit, encouraging factional fighting and repeating the message "All your base are belong to us." Needless to say that while the population is engaging in centuries of genocide and destroying their infrastructure and industrial base, there are no taxes flowing in the Emperors direction.

Vs a six month campaign to defeat the military forces followed by a decade (perhaps) of occupation and reconstruction. Resulting in a compliant tax paying member of the Imperium.

I like the offworld scholarships, though we're entering into transport problems again. It'll be much cheaper to ship teachers in than students out.

True, but the benefits of sending back highly qualified young adults with off world experience of the advantages of trade and tech should be very stabilizing. Timing wise they would start to return as the occupation is lifted. Transport out wouldn't be an issue, the troop transports are empty on the return trip.

 

[Icosahedron]

The historical operations with sufficient troops generally lasted less than that. Taken from this study;

The majority lasted 4 years or less. The notable exception being Malaya where for 12 years insurgents hide "in the hills". With Imperial SOP's shortening or eliminating the British learning curve, even the Malaya scenario would have lasted well under a decade.

I'll grant that if you're in a position to throw sufficient boot leather at the problem, for a sufficient time, occupation will probably be a quicker option. The problem arises if resources are short and/or you try to cut corners. These things frequently fail -

It could be said the AWI was the result of a failed pacification programme. Certainly blockades didn't work to force the rebelious Patriots to see the error of their ways and start paying taxes again! Damn those rebels, lets bomb their harbour cities, that'll show them who's boss!

And as we all know, future occupations don't always learn from past mistakes...

Of course, in the AWI, the attacking forces didn't take out the sedition-spouting () leadership with a surgical strike first. Makes a big difference.

Though it could be argued that a surgical strike that takes out a leader's pet Beaker Monkey could have more of a sobering effect on an errant government than marching in with an army and taking out the leader and government en masse. Makes them consider their own mortality, perhaps...

Well, it was actually on how do you transport and supply such a large occupation force, we have digressed somewhat...

We have indeed, though it's an interesting digression. However, since the transport of occupying troops is of equal interest to Dr Evil, perhaps we should return to that issue.

Needless to say that while the population is engaging in centuries of genocide and destroying their infrastructure and industrial base, there are no taxes flowing in the Emperors direction.
Vs a six month campaign to defeat the military forces followed by a decade (perhaps) of occupation and reconstruction. Resulting in a compliant tax paying member of the Imperium.

But you lose less troops. I suppose it depends on your empire's value system and how important that particular world's taxes are to your overall economy.
...And destroying infrastructure is not a significant component of the stand-off plan. As you say, it's counterproductive. You just want to take out (or simply cow) errant leadership and the more recalcitrant followers. The general population is seldom a problem.

True, but the benefits of sending back highly qualified young adults with off world experience of the advantages of trade and tech should be very stabilizing. Timing wise they would start to return as the occupation is lifted. Transport out wouldn't be an issue, the troop transports are empty on the return trip.

Well, it seems we agree on kidnapping and brainwashing the kids, anyway. :devil:

So, about those troop/children transports...

 

[jatay3]

The canonical 3I doesn't hire mercs; they activate them. A merc license is also equipped with a reserve activation clause (see Invasion: Earth)...

The 3I doesn't have to hire them. If it hires them it can use a broker and not reveal who is doing the hiring. Often quite useful.

 

[jatay3]

Couldn't a lot of the same effect of pacification just be done by fortifying the area around the starport and then waiting? We are really assuming that the Imperium has a motive for wanting to conquer the area.

And then too, aren't we assuming that the population cares who they pay taxes to? What if they are indifferent to the Imperium? Hasn't that largely been the case through history; look at the Persians. Their idea of pacification was simply not being babylonians or assyrians.

 

[aramis]

The 3I doesn't have to hire them. If it hires them it can use a broker and not reveal who is doing the hiring. Often quite useful.

Canon is explicit that the merc license means being subject to activation. No blind drops needed; the 3I, when it hires mercs as the 3I, is using them as "imperial army" troops.

 

[Matt123]

Couldn't a lot of the same effect of pacification just be done by fortifying the area around the starport and then waiting?

Not really, you may as well just wait on your home planet as opposed to wait in what has become a defacto Embassy grounds. For there to be a need for pacification there has to be an effort to create a change in who provides government services and security. If you adopt a waiting game someone else will do it. If you do nothing but sabotage those efforts, the population sees you as part of the problem, not the solution.

We are really assuming that the Imperium has a motive for wanting to conquer the area.

Yes. Not only that, but also that diplomatic efforts to assilimate the system have failed.

And then too, aren't we assuming that the population cares who they pay taxes to? What if they are indifferent to the Imperium? Hasn't that largely been the case through history; look at the Persians. Their idea of pacification was simply not being babylonians or assyrians.

Which is why IMHO pacification will generally succeed if resourced and implimented well. Joe Public generally takes the path of least resistance. If you can "be the solution" and demonstrate that the Patriots are the danger to law and order, much of the population will fall behind the occupiers glad their families are safe and life can go on as normal.

Wait in your safe zone for the population to come to you however and chances are when they come they will be fired up and armed by those same Patriots.

 

[Matt123]

I'll grant that if you're in a position to throw sufficient boot leather at the problem, for a sufficient time, occupation will probably be a quicker option. The problem arises if resources are short and/or you try to cut corners.

And this is the heart of the thread. Assuming troops can be drafted from nearby systems how do you get those troops there, whats the planning time frame, how long before the troops ships get on station, how how many and how long do you have them. And finally once the troops are there what efforts are required to keep them in supply.

To get more specific, what are the ships, who controls them, what do they do when not moving troops, where are they stationed.

The supplies question, assuming predominantly Light Infantry depends on weapons, supply of high tech off world kit, spare parts, boots, mail & coffee. Much could be sourced locally, assuming a stable enough environment. However a supply chain ensuring 1,000,000 troops spread across a planet, get three meals a day is not insignificant.

And as we all know, future occupations don't always learn from past mistakes...

IMTU the 3I has documented and refined its military operations over 1100 years against every type of opponent. The 3I military machine is, whilst not un-beatable, certainly a well lead & thourough juggernaught.

Of course, in the AWI, the attacking forces didn't take out the sedition-spouting () leadership with a surgical strike first. Makes a big difference.

Damn them slippery sedition spouting Patriots, hiding from my Marines and cannon... Never mind, until they see the error of their ways, WE'll SIT OFF SHORE & DEPRIVE THEM OF TEA!

 

[rancke]

The first section of David weber's In Fury Born features some interesting conflict involving local government forces, local insurrectionists (both equipped to TL 8ish), and Terran Empire troops (higher TL). Pacification, assymetrical warfare, and tech disparities are all major issues.

The first seven chapters can be read here.


Hans

 

[E.D.Quibell]

Or the whole thing here:

http://baencd.thefifthimperium.com/22-MissionofHonorCD/MissionofHonorCD/In Fury Born/index.htm

Quite legitamatly.

Best regards,

Ewan

 

[jatay3]

Not really, you may as well just wait on your home planet as opposed to wait in what has become a defacto Embassy grounds. For there to be a need for pacification there has to be an effort to create a change in who provides government services and security. If you adopt a waiting game someone else will do it. If you do nothing but sabotage those efforts, the population sees you as part of the problem, not the solution.

The Imperium doesn't normally care who provides government services, and no one can replace them in providing security from offworld threats.

It doesn't matter who controls the planet so much as who controls the most important parts of it. The Imperium can afford to seal a planet from the outside world and has the technology to control the datanet. The rest is simply good training. When the Imperium controls all the information on the planet, there is no longer a meaningful insurgency.

Successful insurgency in modern times has depended more on lobbying and information warfare then on arms. In the Traveller universe, no one will know what is happening on a far off planet and no one will care.

 

[jatay3]

Canon is explicit that the merc license means being subject to activation. No blind drops needed; the 3I, when it hires mercs as the 3I, is using them as "imperial army" troops.

Surely you are devious enough to understand that the Imperium might have political reasons to use them without revealing the source? What about a planet like Granicus? It's chief shelter from Imperial wrath is the desire of the Imperium not to provoke other worlds. But the Imperium has more then enough motive to hit it.