To be honest, I've read more about them in this board than seen in canon, but I lack many books and suplements, mostly from CT era (few of them reached Barcelona). I nany case, Zhodani and Solomani fletes are depicted in all supplements as unified, powerful and long planned entities, that sure have those heavy, HiTech ships, while Vargr are rarely depicted in sucha a way.
Where are they?
The few Vargr squadrons (2 BatDrons, 3 CruDrons, 1 AsltDron and 1 TankDron) in the vargr countermix are considered
Low Zhodani for effects of
Squadron Quality rule, so at the level of Sword World ships (TL10-12), and receive column shifts against them even against the Imperial Colonial Fleets (Low Imperial quality). All of this (along with their J3 only capability) hints me that they are well under TL 14...
And for their ground troops, where TL is specified (and easier to upgrade in TL than ships), they are all TL 10-13, so 2-5 TL's under Imperial Standard
And how long can they have their fleets away without being themselves threatened by other similar entities or corsairs?
See that the world Emperor was between quotation marks, so I was not talking about a Vargr Emperor, but what they see as Emperors (or Prince, if you prefer, one of the archetypes in their histories, according CT:AM1 and MT:V&V)
I'd say it's more a wrong choice of words.
When I said an Alliance, I meant any multi-system political entity. Even Vargr Pocket Empires, while existing, are not too stable (according CT:AM1 and MT:V&V) and face multiple threats i ntheir borders.
And, in any case, MT talks more about raiders and corsair alliances than about Vargr pocket empires trying to expand.
Several points here
- I'm not sure just a three to one is enough to defeat the planetary fleet of such a system that would have more than a single TL advantage
- Droping rocks is useful on a punitive raid, not if you intend to either plunder or conquest a planet
- Regardless what you (or myself, for what's worth) can think about the TL inflation in MT, is as canon as the vargr invasions
- In the specific case of Gemid, even it being TL 16 won't affect maximum imperial TL, as it's not an Imperial world, but a client state
I see the Vargr as they are depicted (or as I understand it) in CT:AM1 and MT:V&V. According what I understand about them, they are an accomplished race, but also a unstable one.
Due to their charisma following tendences (for lack of better words to describe it), they tend to fall apart when their leaders are out of touch and a charicmatic leader appears. And, as this is just the situation it may happen if you give a subordinate (no matter how trusted) a powerful squadron (let's say a TL15 Tender/rider one), my take is that those squadorns will be (at most) rare, out of fear of an "Aldmiral" becoming too charismatic and deciding he is no longer compeled to follow his Prince.
So, IMHO:
Are vargr capable to build such powerful squadrons?
sure
Do they build them?
not so sure
Do they send them far away to plunder the Imperium?
very dubious, as their Squadron Leaders can become too charismatic, too powerful and too far from their Princes to keep being his subordinates, and the prince risks to lose them even if they win. And in the meanwhile, you have weakend your own Pocket Empire to neighbouring ones (can you trust them?) or the ever present corsair/raider bands.