I believe that it's been a long held belief on CotI that a CT/HG battle will only take place with the consent of both sides. (One side or the other can refuse battle and withdraw in one of several ways). This will be modified by necessity to defend certain worlds, refueling points, etc. There are always predictable bottlenecks.
Also the "rule" for "All J4 ships" is a sad joke. At J2 you can fly such a sizable fleet that you can divide forces and still outnumber, and out maneuver, a TCS fleet built to the J4 requirement.
Nothing here establishes a claim for a solely J2 fleet, quite the contrary.
How do you figure that? It sounds unlikely to me. If you have a string of systems A-B-C-D-E each with only a single refuelling option, the J2 fleet has to garrison B, C, D, and E in order to prevent a J4 fleet from attacking A. If you put an average of two gas giants or waterbearing worlds, we double the number of places that must be guarded. When you make that a two-dimensional web of systems instead of a single one-dimensional string, the number of places that must be defended goes up a lot more.
Hans
In CT/HG you can NEVER defend all refueling points (With a maneuver fleet at any rate) it's just plain cost ineffective.
The old adage "Pick and choose your battles" is more than appropriate here as there are both logical and required bottlenecks.
You have a problem on the offensive. You're slow; your targets for attack are easier to predict, enemy worlds farther in are going to have more time to prepare for the arrival of your force, and the enemy can marshall forces in advance of the line of attack. The fact that you can outgun him credit-for-credit will not help you if he draws forces from a wider area and concentrates them on your force. You're going to have trouble withdrawing or reinforcing.
Look to the German army at the outbreak of WW2. Panzer fores could effect a breakthrough but could not consolidate or hold ground. Infantry divisions, moving much slower, were required for this purpose. (Here I
loosely hold that J4=Panzer and J2=Infantry.)
You've got a mainly defensive force, and that puts you at a diplomatic disadvantage.
See above.
By the time your force leaves your borders and responds to the pleas of Pocket Empire Zeta, the jump-4 force has gone there, whupped their butts, and gone home.
Not clear here. If "Pocket Empire Zeta" is my territory or responsibility my reaction to hostilities may very well be the deterrent. (Depending on how far "Pocket Empire Zeta" is from
MY borders.)
You start saber-rattling,
Screw "saber-rattling" It just tips off your enemy to your intentions. Surprise attack all the way. (NOT totally achievable due to mobilization requirements.)
the enemy knows about how deep you can thrust how quickly and what worlds are likely at risk
The enemy always knows this. You know the same about him.
- and he can pull a gambit like running tankers into deep space to pull off an 8-parsec incursion. Meanwhile, you can marshall twice the firepower, but along a long border he can concentrate overwhelming force quickly at one point, defeat your forces there, then shift and concentrate to block your responding attacks elsewhere.
You can never stop a cavalry incursion or massed local force concentrations. In these cases you are forced to react to a degree. (I would love to see a tread on deep space refueling and exchange ideas and philosophies!)
You're basically counting on the fact that your "heavy infantry" are cheaper than his "cavalry" unit-for-unit to build a wall of "heavy infantry" around your borders, hoping it can stop the enemy's "cavalry",
Walls never work but your analogy is reasonable. My "wall" is not intended to stop an enemy cold but to delay and cause attrition loses. (I don't believe in the traditional "attrition" model of combat, I'm a "maneuver" theorist).
but the great power of cavalry has always been its ability to concentrate quickly and strike suddenly where you are weakest.
All to true, but, this is always a temporary advantage on the part of cavalry. They are invariably to weak to hold ground once taken. Also, they will never prevail against a properly deployed Heavy Infantry.
Cavalry can penetrate but unless they can "live off the land" they will die. In CT/HG you can't live off the land for years due to the captured shipyard rules. (Magic Missile Magazines or not

)
I never intended to convey the idea that J2 fleets were the sole choice I would make. I do believe that on the defensive they are a great force for "defense in depth", a time honored and effective proposition. On the offensive, while slow, they are relentless.
Also, assuming a somewhat equal credit navy on both sides (A requirement for two large and hostile governments, otherwise one would have already taken the other over.) for every concentration of force one makes there of necessity arises a corresponding weakness to be exploited.
Without knowing the "terrain" ahead of time no one can design the "right" ship mix in a fleet.
BTW, J2 vs J4 is a better than 2:1 build factor for equivalent Spinal Mounts fielded.
Also to be considered is the
TIME a CT/HG battle can/will take. Conceivably it can go on indefinitely (Weeks at least) with reinforcements (sent for if need be) arriving during battle.