Ok, how about this one. More in line with the original T2K concept but playing off of more recent developments in global politics:
T to T+14
A major terrorist attack in India (perhaps using a small nuke) sets off the long anticipated Indian invasion of Pakistani controlled Kashmir. Pakistan responds with a nuke strike (for several reasons: It knows it can't win a conventional war without radically altering the balance of forces, so it uses several nukes to hit key transportation hubs in northwest India so as to cripple Indian Army logistics. Pakistan also knows that if it does not use its nukes right away there is the potential for a US special ops mission to take control of them before they can be used. There are more, but I digress.)
India retaliates with its own nuke arsenal, but escalates as well, hitting all of Pakistan. In addition, the Indians have always blamed China for giving Pakistan the missile technology, so they lob a couple of missiles at China as well.
China is blindsided by the attack and thrown into chaos. The US and Russia both rush to assure China they did not launch and to offer assistance with recovery operations. China views this as an effort to recolonize her in her weakened state. Radical elements within the Chinese government believe that the entire series of events was a deliberate plot by a Russo-American alliance to cripple China before it can challenge them on the world stage. In the chaos after the attack, these elements quickly gain control of the government.
After a short time period (a couple of days at most) China retaliates against all the 'members of the plot' and launches its missiles against each, India, Russia, and the US.
The India and Russia get the worst of this, but serious damage is done to the US west coast as well. The US retaliates in coordination of what is left of the Russian government (thus making the US and Russia de facto allies). China also uses conventional forces to attack Russia in the Far East. France and Germany withdraw from NATO fearing that the US will activate the alliance to pursue the war against China.
France, seeing that the US is seriously weakened by the current situation (recovering from a significant nuke strike and getting sucked into a war with China), begins to assemble a coalition to challenge the US for leadership of Europe. The US, Britain, and Russia, along with several other nations demand that France turn over its nukes to international control (Joint NATO/Russian). France refuses, thus setting up a potential confrontation in the heart of 'old Europe'.
Ok, that's the basic idea. It could all play out in a matter of a few days or a few weeks. As you can see, there are a lot of possible branches and sequals from this core chain of events, and lots of other potential nastyness could emerge (I didn't go into how the European war plays out or even touch the Midle East and how it would react to these events), but it could be a start to a new Twilight War.
Kind of scary when you think about it,
Rob