I like your reasoning here. I think I remember correctly that Strephon suffered a breakdown upon news of the death of his wife and daughter at the hands of one of his closest friends.
It was a while before he recovered his senses, so for a while it was the actions of his entourage that dictates his movements. With no pre-determined plan they had to make choices on the spot that had not been covered in security planning sessions.
As to the lack of fleet movement, they too are hampered by the need to plan. Do the sector admirals really have detailed secret strategic plans for how to deploy and crush a renegade sector or two?
How much planning and assembly of a supply chain is required before you commit your fleets to a very costly and likely bloody conflict (TL15 vs TL15
). How much intelligence must be gathered?
Another thing that always bothered me with the sweeping movement of fleets during the rebellion was the lack of consideration of the communication lag, it was almost like someone was just moving pieces around on a board rather than think of the months it takes to reorganise forces before they deploy to an unknown combat zone.
As an aside - by TL15 an autodoc would take all of 5 mins to match a Strephon retinal pattern and finger prints to a clone/body double.