He’s being far too reasonable, that path leads to content collapse and Long Nights!!!
CT Only: What One Thing Would You Change About Classic Traveller?
- Thread starter robject
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In retrospect, it's clearly an alien-built precursor to the exploratory merchant, Leviathan. Where Leviathan has armor and redundant systems, Annic Nova relies on security through obscurity (hiding out well past Jump limit and letting the boats do the contact).
It could be. A subsidized merchant can put a price ceiling on freight rates, by "cleaning up" everything left over after the megacorps haul their stuff. Sure you can try to charge more, but your customers will just wait a week for the subsidized cargo space.
So I took an A2 J2 trader, 61 tons cargo, 10 staterooms (4 for crew), 4 low berths, and had it try to ply its trade between Regina and Yori, both Rich worlds, which isn't bad as those things with an RI buy DM will have a cheaper purchase than if sold on an RI world. For example, Firearms are -2 to purchase and -1 to sell on a Rich world, which means, on average, Firearms tend to profit. Notably there's aren't any +X buy and -X sell DMs.
Out of the box, the A2 ship is not profitable. It's roughly 210K expenses per trip, and freight plus passengers (all High Passage) is only 125K. It starts DEEP in the hole.
The axiom "Never start a business without 6mos of operations in the bank". I napkined a J2 trader to run 210K per trip, all told, w/refined fuel, and start with 2.5MCr in the bank
It then followed this simple plan.
When arriving at a port, any speculative cargo that it can sell at a profit, it sold.
It then paid for ship operations (fuel, salaries, mortgage, etc.)
If cash drops lower than 3*operations, it sells all of its cargo.
If the available spec cargo is less than 1/2 available cash, and assuming it fits, (it does not break down the cargos available if they don't fit), the ship buys the current spec cargo.
Any remaining hold was used for freight. It picked up any available passengers.
30% of the ships made it to 100 trips (roughly 4 years). The rest flamed out in about 2 years.
Obviously the heuristic on spec purchasing can be tweaked, but the basic point is that it's a rough go. When your reserves get low, they can run out quite quickly. Once critical mass is reached, you can (almost) go indefinitely. I pushed it to 10 year runs, and saw similar failures, but one flamed out in 5 years.
The J1 Free Trader is pretty much break even out the gate. On this route since it's hard to not fill up the hold and staterooms on these two worlds (that is, 2 rich, 7-8 pop worlds, J1 apart).
At J2 it's a real crap shoot. Refined fuel is a little more than 10% cost of operations in this case.
Out of the box, the A2 ship is not profitable. It's roughly 210K expenses per trip, and freight plus passengers (all High Passage) is only 125K. It starts DEEP in the hole.
The axiom "Never start a business without 6mos of operations in the bank". I napkined a J2 trader to run 210K per trip, all told, w/refined fuel, and start with 2.5MCr in the bank
It then followed this simple plan.
When arriving at a port, any speculative cargo that it can sell at a profit, it sold.
It then paid for ship operations (fuel, salaries, mortgage, etc.)
If cash drops lower than 3*operations, it sells all of its cargo.
If the available spec cargo is less than 1/2 available cash, and assuming it fits, (it does not break down the cargos available if they don't fit), the ship buys the current spec cargo.
Any remaining hold was used for freight. It picked up any available passengers.
30% of the ships made it to 100 trips (roughly 4 years). The rest flamed out in about 2 years.
Obviously the heuristic on spec purchasing can be tweaked, but the basic point is that it's a rough go. When your reserves get low, they can run out quite quickly. Once critical mass is reached, you can (almost) go indefinitely. I pushed it to 10 year runs, and saw similar failures, but one flamed out in 5 years.
The J1 Free Trader is pretty much break even out the gate. On this route since it's hard to not fill up the hold and staterooms on these two worlds (that is, 2 rich, 7-8 pop worlds, J1 apart).
At J2 it's a real crap shoot. Refined fuel is a little more than 10% cost of operations in this case.
Condottiere
SOC-14 5K
Reminds me of a start up.
Concept wise, it's a reversal, with a bunch of pensioners willing to leverage their savings, skills and experience to make it work.
Concept wise, it's a reversal, with a bunch of pensioners willing to leverage their savings, skills and experience to make it work.
Indeed many businesses do not make it past the first two years, that is why the US tax code allows for declaring a loss in those two years almost automatically.
Spinward Flow
SOC-14 5K
Makes me wonder what kind of results you would have had doing the same round trips between Kinorbes/Roup and/or Feri/Enope.
I get the feeling that Kinorbes/Roup might have been really unfairly profitable on speculative cargo (Agricultural+Rich to Industrial).
If the A2 were paid off or operating under subsidy, you wouldn't be dealing with the usury of bank financing costs.
Also, if you dedicated 5 tons of cargo capacity to carrying Mail (Cr25,000 per delivery) it would really help get you closer to profitable and away from the edge of bankruptcy. After all, earning another Cr50,000 per month (MCr0.6 per year over 12 out of 13 months) can really make a difference in your bottom line (if you'll let it) ... although in order to do that you would need to arm the A2 and add a Gunner (or two) to the crew.
A fuel purification plant, even a TL=9 one (for 9 tons of cargo space lost), is well worth the investment in terms of fuel costs avoided. Although only Regina offers refined fuel (Yori is a type C starport with only unrefined fuel), being able to avoid 40-50 tons of refined fuel purchase (Cr20,000-25,000 per round trip) can quickly add up and help your bottom line. Sure, you'll be Cr9000 short on cargo revenue per jump, but even then the fuel purification plant will pay for itself within about a year (and you won't have to worry about the risk of misjumps).
Might want to try your test again with slightly different parameters (such as putting a TL=9 fuel purification plant into the cargo hold) and trying out the Knorbes to Roup circuit and see what you get ... just a point of comparison against your Regina to Yori runs.
Condottiere
SOC-14 5K
It just occurred to me, that the subsidies could take the form of cashback, or partial tax write offs, after submitting receipts, which means you collect after the fact, rather than receiving the subsidies at the time of embarkation.
HanleyTucks
SOC-11
Being more likely than not to fail in honest business is what encourages people to take big risks, or break the law - in other words: to adventure!
Spinward Flow
SOC-14 5K
Aye.
Cash starvation by virtue of starship design is one of the core adventure hooks in CT.
About 2% is hardy “usury” (my only ‘nitpick’ in everything you had to say).
No doubt there's some much better pairing out there.
Only subsidized merchants can carry mail.
Well don't forget you're financing that plant over 40 years, so the weekly margins are even better. Since the refined fuel is about 10% of the expenses, I don't know how impactful that will be to the big picture. During one 10 year run, I saw evidence of them having an year when they demonstrated no positive cash flow. 26 weeks of cash out the door (mind, it was still buying cargos, but it wasn't selling them -- at least not enough to break even). That's a cash flow problem, not necessarily a value problem (which is why when money gets tight, I have a fire sale and just sell everything to build operating capital). When this happened, it had plenty of cash so it could weather the storm easily (which is why it made it to 10 years -- this guy made 25M on an Armored Vehicles transaction. War Profiteer.).
Also, this should be run with a broker. Why anyone would not run a +4 broker (any broker for that matter) is beyond me. Brokers are free money.
Spinward Flow
SOC-14 5K
I object to needing to pay for 240% of the base purchase price in order to finance a starship.
This is a fallacy.
Subsidized ships are public services.
But there can be private couriers too.
Yes, yes ... I know ... the LBB2.81, p9 entry literally reads:
And yes, I see that the first two words in that entry are "Subsidized merchants" ... but notice the phrasing used.
Subsidized merchants -->MAY<-- receive mail delivery contracts.
It doesn't say -->ONLY<-- subsidized merchants -->CAN<-- receive mail delivery contracts.
It's kind of like me saying that "people who go swimming MAY drown" ... which is true (because some people who do go swimming do indeed drown) ... but then extending and extrapolating from that to understand that "ONLY people who go swimming CAN drown" ... which is clearly not the case (people can drown in 2 inches of water depth, which is less than what is needed to swim in). People can drown in bathtubs too small to swim in (for example) and they did not drown because they were swimming, yet they still drowned.
Likewise, you can truthfully claim to NOT be the murderer who killed the victim because the last time you saw them the victim was quite alive ... which sounds on the face of things to completely exonerate you of suspicion (right?). Such a claim, even if true(!), can still include circumstances such as putting the victim (alive) into a death trap, which you put into motion and then walk away from, while the victim is still alive (the death trap kills them after you have left) ... so that your claim that the victim was still alive when you last saw them is indeed true, while neglecting to include the extended circumstances that were entirely your fault for killing the victim.
Same deal here.
Subsidized merchants MAY be set up with mail contracts to carry mail within their route jurisdiction ... and here are the starship requirements to meet the requirements needed for that to happen (5 tons dedicated cargo space, must be armed, must have a gunner as crew). So the statement is INCLUSIVE (subsidized merchants MAY) without being EXCLUSIVE (ONLY subsidized merchants CAN).
The limiting factor is the mail delivery contracts involved ... not the "subsidized merchant" status as a make or break point on whether or not you can get the contract(s) involved ... and the starship outfitting standards. A subsidized merchant will have the contract arrangements for mail drawn up by the subsidizing government, so obtaining the mail delivery contracts "is done for you" (if you want it) as part of your subsidy agreement. However, it would be the height of arrogance to assume that such mail delivery contracts cannot be obtained in any other way than via a subsidy agreement.
Kind of like assuming you need to own a starship in order to buy speculative cargo so as to ship it to other star systems for sale.
That is an obviously wrong assumption, given the fact that as a starship-less merchant (wannabe prince) ... if you've got the credits you can buy a speculative cargo just like anyone else and then book cargo space and passage on a starship to another star system in order to control the sale of your speculative cargo in another star system.
My point being that PRIVATE (meaning: not subsidized) mail courier services ARE going to exist.
It makes no sense for them to be limited to public subsidies exclusively and only.
If a private company wants to get in on the mail delivery contract "game" they can ... it just isn't going to be done "for them" by a subsidizing government, that's all. Representatives of your company will need to go around to the various worlds to set up the necessary (private) contracting for mail services and then once that is done you can deliver mail to each world that you've contracted with.
Kind of like unlocking flight points or travel points in computer RPGs (almost all published after 1981, with most MMORPGs getting published more than 20 years after 1981).
You have to visit the flight point (go there first) and talk to the contact NPC before you can unlock it for a right to return to it later. Once you've unlocked the destination, you can travel to it. It's sort of the same thing with mail delivery contracts, I reckon. You can't just show up with a pile of mail without a contract giving you permission to deliver mail ... but once you do have a contract, you can deliver mail to that location from elsewhere (anywhere else, really) because you've been "vetted" for mail delivery to THAT world.
So if I've got a privately owned J1 Free Trader (for example) ... and I want to deliver mail to the 3 star systems within 1 parsec of Regina/Regina/Spinwards Marches ...
... as a privately owned ship I need to first GO to Ruie, Jenghe, Hefry and Regina (sequencing doesn't really matter) so as to "unlock the right" to deliver mail to each of those systems via obtaining a mail contract granting my ship permission to deliver mail to each of those systems. Once such permission is granted by each system, after that my ship can make mail deliveries to each of the systems I've got a mail contract with (provided my ship maintains the 5 tons dedicated cargo space, armed and gunner in crew minimum conditions).
A subsidy will grant you those contracts before you visit those systems, since it's all handled through the subsidizing government ... but that's not the ONLY way to obtain those rights to deliver mail. You can just "go there" yourself and set them up by registering as a private entity, the trick is that it won't be done for you before you visit the first time.
Hope that makes sense.
What does the pool of people with broker skill look like? Are there enough to go around?
Also, if everyone has a broker, wouldn't the tables be adjusted accordingly? At least assume a minimum level of broker skill on the other side of each transaction...
I had forgotten that part, though I never added mail when running/playing trade type games. That does change some of the cost examples given previously a great deal. Had to look in book 2 (page 9 on mail & incidentals) for that.
And the reasoning for that limitation would be to make sure the mail actually got there w/the added insurance of a subsidized contract.
And as pointed out, may does not necessarily mean only, but could be interpreted that way.
But it's not a very good way to run a financial enterprise. Which would be a problem if this were an economy simulation rather than a framework for a role-playing game.
Narrator: it's still a problem.
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Compound interest is inexorable.
What do payments on a 20-year loan look like? 10 years?
Also, it can't possibly have a risk premium priced into it at at that rate.
mike wightman
SOC-14 10K
For worlds not on the main trade routes/xboat routes it makes sense to allow any ship regardless of subsidy status to be able to carry mail if it meets the criteria - set aside 5t and be armed.
Also note that those same rules say a subsidised ship must be 600t which is broken within the space of a few pages... makes you wonder why they didn't change it to 400t at some point...
Also note that those same rules say a subsidised ship must be 600t which is broken within the space of a few pages... makes you wonder why they didn't change it to 400t at some point...
Possibly because they realized the Liner (M) (like all high-Jn ships) couldn't be run profitably on per-jump freight rates, but didn't catch that the Merchant (R) couldn't either until late in play testing. A version of it without the lifeboat comes close to breaking even.
mike wightman
SOC-14 10K
They call the 400t ship a subsidised merchant from 77 edition onward, despite the fact the rules say you need to be 600t to be subsidised. Even the latest error corrected Facsimile Edition of CT continues this glaring error.
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