When were Black Globes found?

[rancke]

That's undoubtedly true. The Vargr and Zhodani do begin the war by invading the Imperium. Of course there have been months of tensions leading up to that invasion.

True. Though Santanocheev keeps insisting that there's no danger.

The Imperium hasn't reacted in various preemptive ways to rising tensions in the Marches? No pre-war reinforcement of the counter-insurgency effort on Efate for example?

Very little, and none of it from Mora in the case of reinforcements for Efate. But, yes, the Imperium did create the 1st Provisional Fleet, and Mora's Kokirraks could have been part of that. And whichever BatRon had been split up could have been assembled again. Such measures could have been put in train by Santanocheev's predecessor. If the Zhos had waited a couple of months, Santy might have had time to withdraw those forces again.

Almost forgot. The 800 number was derived from various passages in the FFW booklet. Wil can discuss them in greater detail.

Going over Wil's old posts in this thread, it seems to be based on the existence of four squadrons of Kokirraks in the Marches and extrapolated. But it doesn't account for 70 years worth of attrition. If there are 800 left in 1105 (My own estimate is 960), then (assuming an attrition rate similar to that of the Atlantics) there should have been a total of 1200 built (1440 if my numbers are used).


Hans

 

[Whipsnade]

True. Though Santanocheev keeps insisting that there's no danger.

Hans,

Santanocheev did insist there was no danger. Santanocheev was also the one who cut the orders for units to reinforce counter-insurgency effort on Efate.

What he released for public consumption and what he believed in private could have been very much at odds. I don't think Santanocheev didn't think there was going to be a war as much as he thought there was going to be a different war at a different time in a different place.

Going over Wil's old posts in this thread, it seems to be based on the existence of four squadrons of Kokirraks in the Marches and extrapolated. But it doesn't account for 70 years worth of attrition. If there are 800 left in 1105 (My own estimate is 960), then (assuming an attrition rate similar to that of the Atlantics) there should have been a total of 1200 built (1440 if my numbers are used).

I quite like your 1200/1440 numbers because they "soak up" more of the 2,000+ black globes known to exist.

If we presume the phrase "more than 2,000" to mean 2001 to 2500, we've got a several hundred generators to account for even after R&D wastage and building a fleet of Kokis. Anything that whittles away at that total is a good thing.


Regards,
Bill

 

[aramis]

Hans,

Santanocheev did insist there was no danger. Santanocheev was also the one who cut the orders for units to reinforce counter-insurgency effort on Efate.

Everything seems to indicate Santanocheev was an obviously incompetent officer. He gets removed by a LtCdr with a warrant that could only have been obtained by breaking the law, and the rest of the command fall right in line behind Norris.

If he weren't obviously incompetent, Norris would have disrupted much by assuming command; if he were competent, he'd have realized the zhodani threat.

What he released for public consumption and what he believed in private could have been very much at odds. I don't think Santanocheev didn't think there was going to be a war as much as he thought there was going to be a different war at a different time in a different place.

which, for the head of intel, is still incompetent. Perhaps he was an excellent ship-driver peter-principled into the admiralty. Perhaps he was just a good schmoozer. But the pre-5FW TASNF makes it pretty clear what's coming, so Santanocheev is portrayed as being in denial by his actions.

I quite like your 1200/1440 numbers because they "soak up" more of the 2,000+ black globes known to exist.

I also agree that 1200-1400 makes far more sense for the original run. Perhaps more

Looking at Rebellion Sourcebook, 19 sectors either have territories large enough, or are full sectors, or have canonical statements of overfleet strength (ie: Corridor) to have kokiraks. at 4x8x19 that's 608... another 5 sectors have significant size to have another squadron or 2 each; let's assume one batron per quadrant, counting a half-quadrant to full quadrant as a quadrant... I come u with 75 Batrons that way... at 8 each... 600 ships ca 1100. If we presume 1 batron per full subsector at initiation, instead... 264 subsectors... at 8 each... 1952!

But that also would push the attrition rate quite a bit, if only 32 were still remaining in service on the hot border!

If we presume the phrase "more than 2,000" to mean 2001 to 2500, we've got a several hundred generators to account for even after R&D wastage and building a fleet of Kokis. Anything that whittles away at that total is a good thing.


Regards,
Bill

Let's see... Rim War ends in 990's... we can't reasonably push the Kokirak back THAT far; it'd have been noted in S9.


But if we go with "Every Numbered Fleet gets a Batron of Kokirak" we can eat up all but a handful of those 2000-2100... if it had been more than 2250, it'd be "almost 2500"... I figure it's probably about 2010 or so...

 

[Whipsnade]

Everything seems to indicate Santanocheev was an obviously incompetent officer.

Wil,

I'm not suggesting he wasn't incompetent. I am suggesting that he wasn't totally useless and that his incompetence didn't "trickle down" to effect all the forces under his command either.

He gets removed by a LtCdr with a warrant that could only have been obtained by breaking the law, and the rest of the command fall right in line behind Norris.

Well, we're not dealing with the command structures of a 21st Century Western democracy. Furthermore, that LCDR is also an Imperial Duke and one that one that Santanocheev had very recently pushed to one side.

It's obvious that there was a power struggle going on at the highest reaches of the IN during the immediate pre-war period and, just because Santanocheev & Co. had seemingly won, it doesn't naturally follow that they'd consolidated their victory. Norris & Co. may not have held onto the CinC chair and their intel outfit may be currently "on ignore", but that doesn't necessarily mean they've been completely vanquished. Santanocheev's grip on the CinC position may be tenuous enough not survive any great shocks despite his patron's backing.

If his hold is weak, we need to remember another important fact about the war: Santanocheev is doing very badly. The Zho's hit his assembly area off Inthe and his lone big "push" to relieve Efate has failed. His only success comes at Lanth and that has more to do with the "doe-see-doe" the Imperial fleets danced there than any guidance from the CinC's office. There could be lots of grumblings even before Norris shows up with his Magic Electric Warrant.

In fact, the Warrant could simply be the excuse many needed to do what they were already planning to do; removing Santanocheev from command. Norris waving his Warrant in the face of a winning Santanocheev may have found himself ignored.

If he weren't obviously incompetent, Norris would have disrupted much by assuming command; if he were competent, he'd have realized the zhodani threat.

First, his incompetence needn't effect the forces under him that much. They're merely poorly directed and not incompetent themselves. Also, Santanocheev could have already been on the skids.

Second, as I wrote before I think Santanocheev did recognize a Zhodani threat. It was just the wrong Zhodani threat and deliberately so. Maskirovka was neither invented by the Soviets nor died with them. Norris' real claim to command may not have been the Warrant as much as it was his ability to identify the real threat, the Abyss Campaign, and defeat it off Rhylanor.

Perhaps he was an excellent ship-driver peter-principled into the admiralty. Perhaps he was just a good schmoozer.

Schmoozer definitely. Canon makes it pretty clear that the Delphine advanced him to his position over other senior officers. The involvement of the Delphine hints at internal Imperial political shenanigans in Santanocheev's appointment too. She and Norris don't take too kindly to each other, so what better way to poke an enemy in the eye than to appoint a Sector Admiral who completely disagrees with Norris & Co. analysis of the situation?

But the pre-5FW TASNF makes it pretty clear what's coming, so Santanocheev is portrayed as being in denial by his actions.

Not in denial as much as believing in a Zhodani attack that wasn't the true Zhodani attack. Maskirovka again.

I also agree that 1200-1400 makes far more sense for the original run. Perhaps more

Agreed.

But that also would push the attrition rate quite a bit, if only 32 were still remaining in service on the hot border!

Again, agreed. Perhaps the design, which is noted as being one the older ones in service, isn't that good without the globes? A failed globe generator would then be a bigger part of the equation which determines whether a Koki becomes the 57th Century equivalent of razor blades.

We can also question the original design too. Was it state of the art when the blueprints were finished? Or was it hurried for various reasons and thus lacking in some manner? The Bismarck-class battleships are a good example of this. Their design process was hurried for political reasons meaning they essentially used the same WW1-era armor scheme as SMS Bayern. This "low citadel" design resulted in, among other things, Bismarck being essentially mission killed after only 20 minutes of battle.

Could the Kokis be the hurried copy of an earlier design quickly produced to take advantage of the black globes?

But if we go with "Every Numbered Fleet gets a Batron of Kokirak" we can eat up all but a handful of those 2000-2100... if it had been more than 2250, it'd be "almost 2500"... I figure it's probably about 2010 or so...

Again, agreed.


Regards,
Bill

 

[rancke]

Santanocheev did insist there was no danger. Santanocheev was also the one who cut the orders for units to reinforce counter-insurgency effort on Efate.

Where does it say that Santanocheev ordered anything to go anywhere? As Chief of Navy Intelligence for Regina Subsector, he was a staff officer and presumably not in the line of command at all. Anything sent to Efate would have been sent by the admiral in charge of the 193rd Fleet (or possibly the admiral in charge of the Duchy Navy). Presumably at Norris' behest.

I quite like your 1200/1440 numbers because they "soak up" more of the 2,000+ black globes known to exist.

If we presume the phrase "more than 2,000" to mean 2001 to 2500, we've got a several hundred generators to account for even after R&D wastage and building a fleet of Kokis. Anything that whittles away at that total is a good thing.

The figure is based on the assumption that the four squadrons in the Spinward Marches corresponds to the Imperial average of squadrons per fleet. This could, of course, easily be wrong. If the Imperial average is one squadron per two fleets, the number in existence in 1103 could be 1200 and the original number 1800.

It's also based on the assumption that the attrition rate for Kokirraks is identical to the attrition rate for Atlantics, another frangible assumption.


Hans

 

[rancke]

Everything seems to indicate Santanocheev was an obviously incompetent officer. He gets removed by a LtCdr with a warrant that could only have been obtained by breaking the law, and the rest of the command fall right in line behind Norris.

That's putting it a little strong. He wasn't removed by an ex-commander with a warrant, he was removed by the head of the civil bureaucracy in the war zone with a personal warrant from the Emperor that explicitly put him in charge. As for the legality, SMC states that finding the warrant would retroactively make Norris' trip to Algine's surface legal (As it is, Delphine must have used her own Imperial mandate to reinforce Santanocheev's ban; I can't imagine that the Imperial mandate wouldn't ordinarily allow an Imperial noble to sanction a breach of an interdict).

Perhaps he was an excellent ship-driver peter-principled into the admiralty. Perhaps he was just a good schmoozer.

"[Santanocheev's promotion to Sector Admiral] was less for incompetence [sic] and more for political and social connections." [SMC:11]​

In my writeup of him I'm making him the son and heir of the Countess of Forine (in Mora, not in Lunion), a grandnephew of Delphine through his father, and the husband of the Sector Admiral's daughter.

I also agree that 1200-1400 makes far more sense for the original run. Perhaps more.

Looking at Rebellion Sourcebook, 19 sectors either have territories large enough, or are full sectors, or have canonical statements of overfleet strength (ie: Corridor) to have kokiraks. at 4x8x19 that's 608... another 5 sectors have significant size to have another squadron or 2 each; let's assume one batron per quadrant, counting a half-quadrant to full quadrant as a quadrant... I come u with 75 Batrons that way... at 8 each... 600 ships ca 1100. If we presume 1 batron per full subsector at initiation, instead... 264 subsectors... at 8 each... 1952!

I count 307 subsectors with at least one fleet.

But if we go with "Every Numbered Fleet gets a Batron of Kokirak" we can eat up all but a handful of those 2000-2100... if it had been more than 2250, it'd be "almost 2500"... I figure it's probably about 2010 or so...

To provide a BatRon for every numbered fleet would require 2672 Kokirraks. The text in RbS says 320 fleets, but the map on p. 26 shows 334.



Hans

 

[Whipsnade]

Where does it say that Santanocheev ordered anything to go anywhere? As Chief of Navy Intelligence for Regina Subsector, he was a staff officer and presumably not in the line of command at all. Anything sent to Efate would have been sent by the admiral in charge of the 193rd Fleet (or possibly the admiral in charge of the Duchy Navy). Presumably at Norris' behest.

Hans,

Let's look at the time line...

004-1106 and our fair haired boy enter stage left. He's the INI chief for Regina, a rear admiral, and he's hard at work denying an "insurgent" recently captured on Efate isn't a Zho. He could actually believe that or he could be lying for various reasons.

076-1107 and the Efate build-up is announced, although there are reports of an Imperial infantry brigade on-planet earlier.

187-1107 and the Zhodani ambassador at Regina hands over the Consulate's declaration of war.

212-1107 Norris goes into seclusion officially due to pneumonia and actually due to his Algine mission. There are also rumors he's been deposed by rival power factions in the Navy.

268-1107 and our boy is finally comes on stage again. This time he's the Sector Admiral issuing "no landing orders" for a list of planets which, oddly enough, includes Algine.

SMC flatly states that at the start of the war, command of the Imperial navy was in Santanocheev's hands. It also says his rise from Rear to Sector Admiral took less than two years. Freddie's promotion to Sector Admiral thus had to take place sometime during the 573 days between his There are no Joes on Efate press conference and the Zhodani declaration of war.

So, when did that promotion take place? During the 464 days before the Efate build-up announcement or the 109 days after the same but before the war?

I know which way I'm betting.

SMC holds a few further hints. Norris appealed to Strephon for the Warrant because he knew just how badly the analysis by Santanocheev's new ONI was hurting Imperial preparations. As only the head of the civil bureaucracy, he could not influence military preparations without the Warrant and so sends his appeal to Strephon. Santanocheev could be influencing those poor decisions with faulty intel as a Rear Admiral or he could be making those poor decisions as the Sector Admiral.

There are also hints regarding the "coup" too. Once the war begins, Norris realizes he cannot work with Santanocheev after a few weeks. Within 25 days of the Zhodani declaration of war, Norris is already off on his Warrant hunt. Was Norris actually deposed by rival power factions in the Navy or did he make a tactical withdrawal until he could come back with the ultimate weapon?

And what did Sector Admiral Santanocheev suspect? His "no landings" order which included Algine came only 56 days after Norris dropped out of sight.

I believe it's strongly plausible that Sananocheev was the man ordering the Efate build-up as he fell for the Consulate's pre-war maskirovka efforts. There's more time for the Delphine to appoint him as Sector Admiral before the Efate build-up than there is time between the build-up and the start of the war. The mismanaged pre-war preparations Norris feared would also be much greater if the man whose ONI produced the faulty intel they were based on was now also the man directing those preparations.


Regards,
Bill

 

[rancke]

004-1106 and our fair haired boy enter stage left. He's the INI chief for Regina, a rear admiral, and he's hard at work denying an "insurgent" recently captured on Efate isn't a Zho. He could actually believe that or he could be lying for various reasons.

076-1107 and the Efate build-up is announced, although there are reports of an Imperial infantry brigade on-planet earlier.

187-1107 and the Zhodani ambassador at Regina hands over the Consulate's declaration of war.

212-1107 Norris goes into seclusion officially due to pneumonia and actually due to his Algine mission. There are also rumors he's been deposed by rival power factions in the Navy.

268-1107 and our boy is finally comes on stage again. This time he's the Sector Admiral issuing "no landing orders" for a list of planets which, oddly enough, includes Algine.

SMC flatly states that at the start of the war, command of the Imperial navy was in Santanocheev's hands. It also says his rise from Rear to Sector Admiral took less than two years. Freddie's promotion to Sector Admiral thus had to take place sometime during the 573 days between his There are no Joes on Efate press conference and the Zhodani declaration of war.

So, when did that promotion take place? During the 464 days before the Efate build-up announcement or the 109 days after the same but before the war?

Ah, I see where you're going. A small side issue: Just to encourage everybody to always keep it in mind, remember the communication lag. Santy's promotion would have come sufficiently long before any order he issued reached Regina for the orders to reach Regina from wherever he was when he heard about his promotion. Which could have been anywhere in the Marches. He might have been assigned as attache to the Sector Admiral in early 1107 (getting a promotion to vice admiral) and been on the spot when the Sector Admiral became sick or died or whatever it was that happened to him. That makes more sense to me than to keep him assigned to one post for two consecutive years. But I admit that's only a surmise. We don't know.

I know which way I'm betting.

In other words, the statement you made which sounded like a fact was actually a surmise?

SMC holds a few further hints. Norris appealed to Strephon for the Warrant because he knew just how badly the analysis by Santanocheev's new ONI was hurting Imperial preparations. As only the head of the civil bureaucracy, he could not influence military preparations without the Warrant and so sends his appeal to Strephon. Santanocheev could be influencing those poor decisions with faulty intel as a Rear Admiral or he could be making those poor decisions as the Sector Admiral.

Always keep communication lag in mind. Norris appealed to Strephon long before Santanocheev was put in charge of the sector's forces and almost certainly long before he was put in charge of Regina Subsector Naval Intelligence. Remember that IN personnel seem to switch duties once a year.

There's a scene in the Grand Tour campaign adventure in TD9 that has the PCs ushered into Strephon's presence just as he's viewing Norris' appeal. I can't lay my hand on my copy of TD9 right now, but IIRC this was some time in 1104.

There are also hints regarding the "coup" too. Once the war begins, Norris realizes he cannot work with Santanocheev after a few weeks. Within 25 days of the Zhodani declaration of war, Norris is already off on his Warrant hunt. Was Norris actually deposed by rival power factions in the Navy or did he make a tactical withdrawal until he could come back with the ultimate weapon?

He made a tactical withdrawal.

And what did Sector Admiral Santanocheev suspect? His "no landings" order which included Algine came only 56 days after Norris dropped out of sight.

And is the first incontrovertible evidence of his presence on Regina. He could have been on his way there from Mora and issued his decree the second he arrived. Or he could have been on Regina when Norris went walkabout and sent to Delphine for authorization to issue such a decree.

Actually, there are some problems with the sequence of events any way you work it.

I believe it's strongly plausible that Sananocheev was the man ordering the Efate build-up as he fell for the Consulate's pre-war maskirovka efforts. There's more time for the Delphine to appoint him as Sector Admiral before the Efate build-up than there is time between the build-up and the start of the war. The mismanaged pre-war preparations Norris feared would also be much greater if the man whose ONI produced the faulty intel they were based on was now also the man directing those preparations.

Santanocheev isn't going to be able to set up ONI until he becomes sector admiral.


Hans

 

[Whipsnade]

A small side issue: Just to encourage everybody to always keep it in mind, remember the communication lag.

Hans,

Time lag is moot in this particular case.

First, Santy is on Regina during the Efate press conference in 004-1106.

Second...

Santy's promotion would have come sufficiently long before any order he issued reached Regina for the orders to reach Regina from wherever he was when he heard about his promotion.

... exactly this. He issued those orders as a Sector Admiral[/i]. The further he is away from Regina, the longer he must have been a Sector Admiral which put us deeper into the 573 days between his Rear Admiral and Sector Admiral appearances.

He might have been assigned as attache to the Sector Admiral...

No. There isn't enough time for those intermediate steps. There's only 573 days between Rear Admiral INI subsector chief and Sector Admiral for the Marches. Santy isn't serving as the Sector Admiral's aide only to get the job when the old duffer slips on the soap.

His promotion is a "meteoric rise from Rear Admiral to Sector Admiral" and is due to "political and social connections" with no suggestions about any intermediate steps and damn little time for the same. In fact the very next sentence talks about his promotion not [promotions and the sentence following that states how he and his staff ignored those who opposed them while making their plans and preparations. They won't be planning and preparing, let alone ignoring people, if there's only a few months time between promotion and war.

The Delphine liked Santy, believed Santy's intel above all others, and loved the fact that Santy and Norris loathed each other, so Santy got the job. Santy was the Sector Admiral well before the war kicked off.

In other words, the statement you made which sounded like a fact was actually a surmise?

I only bet when the fix is in because I've never seen a fat gambler or a thin bookie. Santy made Sector Admiral before 076-1107 and his Efate build-up was one of the mistakes Norris had foreseen and feared.

Always keep communication lag in mind. Norris appealed to Strephon long before Santanocheev...

Again, the lag is moot in this particular case. Norris appealed before Santy was Sector Admiral but after Santy's bad intel was leading to mismanaged preparations. Santy is still among the reasons Norris did what he did.

And is the first incontrovertible evidence of his presence on Regina.

No. The 004-1106 press conference is the only incontrovertible evidence of Santy being on Regina. The "No Landings" proclamation is just that, a proclamation. Santy's order is being published on Regina and that order could have issued anywhere.

Santanocheev isn't going to be able to set up ONI until he becomes sector admiral.

He can't offically set up ONI until he is the Sector Admiral and SMC states that explicitly. However, Santy has been collecting, analyzing, and producing bad intel well before his promotion to sector admiral and there must have been a group or groups of people assisting him in that. ONI was up and running long before any stationary and business cards were printed, before office doors were stenciled, and before new titles were handed out.


Bill

 

[rancke]

First, Santy is on Regina during the Efate press conference in 004-1106.

Rear Admiral Lord Santanocheev, yes. The next we hear from him for certain is on Regina on 268-1107. What happens to him in between is pure speculation on our parts.

He issued those orders as a Sector Admiral. The further he is away from Regina, the longer he must have been a Sector Admiral which put us deeper into the 573 days between his Rear Admiral and Sector Admiral appearances.

We can cut it slightly finer than that. He started the 5FW as Sector Admiral, so he's already been promoted on 187-1107.

He might have been assigned as attache to the Sector Admiral...

No. There isn't enough time for those intermediate steps. There's only 573 days between Rear Admiral INI subsector chief and Sector Admiral for the Marches. Santy isn't serving as the Sector Admiral's aide only to get the job when the old duffer slips on the soap.

573 days is a year and a half. Santy could have been to Capital and back in that time. More likely, there's time for two intermediate steps, that is two new assignments (get a new assignment, spend a year on that, get another new assignment). One or two, depending on how long he has been CINCNINT/RS on 004-1106. If he's only just started, he'd get a new assignment in early 1107. Otherwise he could get a new one already in early 1106.

His promotion is a "meteoric rise from Rear Admiral to Sector Admiral" and is due to "political and social connections" with no suggestions about any intermediate steps and damn little time for the same. In fact the very next sentence talks about his promotion not [promotions...

Going from rear admiral to sector admiral in less that two years is a meteoric rise even if he'd have a regular promotion to vice admiral in between. But that's a side issue. The main point is that even if it doesn't net him a promotion, he'd still have another assignment in between. The reason why I suggest attache to the Sector Admiral is that the automatic promotion associated with an assignment as attache is an obvious way to fast-track someone who their lordships look upon with favor.

...and the sentence following that states how he and his staff ignored those who opposed them while making their plans and preparations. They won't be planning and preparing, let alone ignoring people, if there's only a few months time between promotion and war.

And if he's promoted in early 1107, he and his cronies have four or five months to plan and prepare and ignore. Furthermore, the same text says that he rises from rear admiral to sector admiral in less than two years. But if he becomes sector admiral in time to launch that operation against Efate on 078-1107, his meteoric rise would have taken less than one year.

The Delphine liked Santy, believed Santy's intel above all others, and loved the fact that Santy and Norris loathed each other, so Santy got the job. Santy was the Sector Admiral well before the war kicked off.

Early 1107 is well before the war kicks in.

Santy made Sector Admiral before 076-1107 and his Efate build-up was one of the mistakes Norris had foreseen and feared.

That's your opinion. It may even be true (although that 'less than two years' bit makes me doubt it). But it sure is not a canonical fact.

Again, the lag is moot in this particular case. Norris appealed before Santy was Sector Admiral but after Santy's bad intel was leading to mismanaged preparations. Santy is still among the reasons Norris did what he did.

Norris appealed long before Santanocheev became CINININT/RS. You keep ignoring the fact that IN personnel usually only stay in the same assignment for a year. If Norris were to have worried about Santanocheev specifically, Santy would have had to have been obfuscating intelligence for four years minimum.

No. The 004-1106 press conference is the only incontrovertible evidence of Santy being on Regina. The "No Landings" proclamation is just that, a proclamation. Santy's order is being published on Regina and that order could have issued anywhere.

I thought so too at first, but the proclamation is numbered '46-268-1107'. I think it's safe to assume that the 268-1107 part of that number refers to the date of issuance. So it was issued the same day it was released on Regina and signed by Santanocheev. Ergo Santy was in the Regina system on 268-1107.

He can't offically set up ONI until he is the Sector Admiral and SMC states that explicitly. However, Santy has been collecting, analyzing, and producing bad intel well before his promotion to sector admiral and there must have been a group or groups of people assisting him in that. ONI was up and running long before any stationary and business cards were printed, before office doors were stenciled, and before new titles were handed out.

"Now holding the highest level of power in the Marches, he established a parallel intelligence network (the Office of Naval Information) composed primarily of bootlickers and yes-persons."[SMC:11]​

Hans

 

[Whipsnade]

We can cut it slightly finer than that. He started the 5FW as Sector Admiral, so he's already been promoted on 187-1107.

Hans,

Yes. I pointed that out with the time line.

One or two, depending on how long he has been CINCNINT/RS on 004-1106. If he's only just started, he'd get a new assignment in early 1107. Otherwise he could get a new one already in early 1106.

You keep 'reminding" me that Norris appealed to Strephon years in advance. That means Norris has been worried about the mismanagement of IN pre-war preparations for at least that long. If bad intel analysis is part of that mismanagement and Santanocheev is among those producing bad intel analysis, what does that suggest about Santy's tour as CINCNINT/RS and his assignment to INI as a whole?

The reason why I suggest attache to the Sector Admiral is that the automatic promotion associated with an assignment as attache is an obvious way to fast-track someone who their lordships look upon with favor.

The reason why you're assuming he must be a vice admiral first is the fact that you automatically assume promotions within flag ranks must always follow the some set of "rules" despite the many historical examples in which they do not. Flag officers even more than field officers are often jumped over their seniors and "promoted" more than one grade at once. This would hold even more true in a quasi-feudal system like the Imperium.

It's entirely plausible that Santy never spent one day as a vice admiral, especially if he was the Delphine's beamish boy, especially if his promotion was part of her political machinations against Norris, and especially is his promotion was part of a power struggle within the IN.

But if he becomes sector admiral in time to launch that operation against Efate on 078-1107, his meteoric rise would have taken less than one year.

No. As I wrote before, the period between the press conference and the announced build-up is 464 days. That's roughly a year and a third and conforms to the statement of his rise taking place in "less than two years".

It's only less than a year because you...

Norris appealed long before Santanocheev became CINININT/RS. You keep ignoring the fact that IN personnel usually only stay in the same assignment for a year.

... continually confuse chargen with reality.

Do you seriously believe that the Imperium routinely shuffles fleet commanders and flag officers every year because it just so happens that shift third assistant vice deputy laundry officers and drive lackeys get shuffled around that often?

It is entirely plausibly and historically supported for Santy to be jumped from chairing the Zhodani Desk in INI as a rear admiral to leading a war against the Zhodani as a sector admiral without spending any time as a vice admiral somewhere in between.

If Norris were to have worried about Santanocheev specifically, Santy would have had to have been obfuscating intelligence for four years minimum.

Santy could have been producing bad analysis well before he was CINININT/RS. He's obviously part of a group who have been doing so with the belief their interpretations are correct.

I thought so too at first, but the proclamation is numbered '46-268-1107'. I think it's safe to assume that the 268-1107 part of that number refers to the date of issuance. So it was issued the same day it was released on Regina and signed by Santanocheev. Ergo Santy was in the Regina system on 268-1107.

It could refer to the date he signed the order or it could refer to the date his order was announced on Regina. A bundle of 46 proclamations dealing with issues ranging from repair schedules to squadron reassignments to the prohibited landings could have arrived on Regina from Santy's HQ on 268. It's a toss up.

"Now holding the highest level of power in the Marches, he established a parallel intelligence network (the Office of Naval Information) composed primarily of bootlickers and yes-persons."[SMC:11]

Exactly. He established ONI after taking the reins, he made ONI official.

Prior to that, Santy and others were producing bad analysis as part of INI over a period of years. Norris' appeal to Strephon certainly suggests that. Large organizations develop cliques and factions within them which often work at cross purposes. INI, as an intelligence agency, would be even more prone to do so.

Santy would have been part of a faction within INI, most possibly it's most prominent member, which believed pre-war intel should be analyzed in a certain fashion. Santy's unofficial group would be opposed by another which Norris was aligned with. The usual bureaucratic bun fights took place between the two cliques and during one of them Santy was embarrassed when one of his predictions was shown to be wrong. As a result, when Santy was made Sector Admiral, he quickly awarded the faction he'd been part of by making it an official body separate from and superior to INI.

It's called "empire building" and I can't even count the number of times I've personally seen in the business world.

I believe Santy was in the big chair before the Efate operation was announced. Only 111(*) days separate that announcement from the Zhodani declaration of war while 464 days separate that announcement from his appearance at the press conference. Santy needn't have been a vice admiral before taking over the Sector position either, especially given the political nature of his appointment and the quasi-feudal nature of the state he serves.


Regards,
Bill

* - Thanks to bad math I wrote 109 earlier.

 

[rancke]

You keep 'reminding" me that Norris appealed to Strephon years in advance. That means Norris has been worried about the mismanagement of IN pre-war preparations for at least that long. If bad intel analysis is part of that mismanagement and Santanocheev is among those producing bad intel analysis, what does that suggest about Santy's tour as CINCNINT/RS and his assignment to INI as a whole?

I don't know what it suggests about Santy, but it does suggest to me that Norris was worried about mismanagement performed by people other than him.

The reason why you're assuming he must be a vice admiral first is the fact that you automatically assume promotions within flag ranks must always follow the some set of "rules" despite the many historical examples in which they do not. Flag officers even more than field officers are often jumped over their seniors and "promoted" more than one grade at once. This would hold even more true in a quasi-feudal system like the Imperium.

I'm not assuming he must be a vice admiral first. I think there's some reason to suppose he might have been and no reason to suppose he wasn't. As such, one might as well adhere to the existing rules and not deviate for no good reason. And I am assuming that he's being jumped more than one step (I use that word to avoid the perennial discussion on whether a Fleet Admiral is a two-star or not and assume that (as various bits of evidence shows) in the Imperial Navy you start by being a rear admiral, get promoted (or "promoted"[*]) to vice admiral, then possibly promoted/"promoted" to admiral (evidence is lacking on that one), then promoted/"promoted" to fleet admiral, then promoted to sector admiral.)

[*] That is to say, if Fleet Admiral is the first admiral's rank and the only one between commodore and sector admiral, then you start as the sort of Fleet Admiral who are referred to as 'rear admiral' and assigned to one set of assignments, then you're "promoted" to being the kind of FA who're referred to as 'vice admiral' and employed in another set of assignments, then "promoted" to the kind of admiral who're referred to as 'fleet admiral' and employed commanding fleets, until finally you're promoted to sector admiral.​

It's entirely plausible that Santy never spent one day as a vice admiral, especially if he was the Delphine's beamish boy, especially if his promotion was part of her political machinations against Norris, and especially if his promotion was part of a power struggle within the IN.

Plausible, sure. A canonical fact, no. The only possibility, no.

No. As I wrote before, the period between the press conference and the announced build-up is 464 days. That's roughly a year and a third and conforms to the statement of his rise taking place in "less than two years".

I see. He was promoted, he snapped his fingers, and the first troops arrived on Efate that very same day? It takes time to mount a campaign. Nevertheless, I did say that you might be right. But you might just as well (and IMO are much more likely to) be wrong.

Do you seriously believe that the Imperium routinely shuffles fleet commanders and flag officers every year because it just so happens that shift third assistant vice deputy laundry officers and drive lackeys get shuffled around that often?

Do you have any evidence to show that it doesn't?

It is entirely plausibly and historically supported for Santy to be jumped from chairing the Zhodani Desk in INI as a rear admiral to leading a war against the Zhodani as a sector admiral without spending any time as a vice admiral somewhere in between.

Possible, yes. Not contradicted by history, arguable. Supported by history, no.

I'll skip the rest of your points and just note than in each case you appear to be confusing "not contradicted by the available evidence" with "supported by the evidence".

I believe Santy was in the big chair before the Efate operation was announced. Only 111(*) days separate that announcement from the Zhodani declaration of war while 464 days separate that announcement from his appearance at the press conference. Santy needn't have been a vice admiral before taking over the Sector position either, especially given the political nature of his appointment and the quasi-feudal nature of the state he serves.

The operative word in that paragraph is 'believe'.


Hans

 

[rancke]

Looking back over the current sub-thread, I think we've taken it about as far as it'll stretch, and perhaps a little beyond. What we have is a small group of facts that canon says did happen and a small group of fact that canon says didn't happen. Between them is a vast empty space of "we don't know". I really just wanted to know if Santy ordering the attack on Efate was spelled out anywhere. Beyond that your guess is as good as mine[*], and I don't want to give the impression that I think my version is anything more than a suggestion.

[*] Well, almost as good .​

Note that I'd be perfectly happy to discuss this further, perhaps with a view to reaching a consensus of some sort, but either in a separate thread (if others would like to contribute) or by private e-mail.

Anyway, Bill, there's really nothing in your version that I couldn't live with; I'd just prefer my version, that's all.



Hans

 

[Andrew M]

Oh, but before we finish this argument, I just wanted to ask this..

If Santanocheev were to deliver presents to all of the little boys and girls of the Imperium on Christmas Eve, how fast would he have to travel?

If he were only to give presents to the good little boys and girls, would this make any difference?

How would Santanocheev's Imperial Navy spy network be able to tell which of them were good, and which of them were bad?

 

[Hal]

Getting back to the original thread...

If the original globes found were devices that measured 300 centimeters on a side, then those devices would have measured what, roughly 27 cubic meters in volume?

What I find interesting is the fact that there aren't ANY black globe devices that measure 2 dtons in volume, and that the TL 17 globes measure some 20 dtons at their smallest given volume.

The very BEST black globe that one can build at TL 15, also happens to be Factor-4 screens, which don't make sense to me for the following reason:

If they are TL 15 devices, why are they unrepairable by worlds with a TL-15 tech base?

Wouldn't it make more sense that the devices are unrepariable and hence, unreplaceable if their operational TL were higher than what the current technological base is capable of handling?

It seems to me, that this presents an odd paradox. If the Korriks were built from the original intent to be black globe platforms, and 1000 is the year that the Imperium reaches TL 15 on the basis that a few of its primary worlds are fully TL 15, then might not the Korriks have been built strictly using TL 15 technology rather than with scavanged black globes?

In the end, it almost seems to me, that the Koriks are standard fare Imperial Technologies based ships, and that the 2,000 globes that were functinal, would be instead, higher tech versions.

My question is this - WHY list TL 17 or TL 18 black globes if none of the standard fare ships being created via High Guard, are ever supposed to be at those tech levels? The highest TL alluded to in Traveller is what, TL 16?

In all fairness, just because one has a definition of "TL 15" as being capable of building factor-4 force screens doesn't mean that those force screen technological advances were present at the start of TL 15. It does however, call into question in my mind, that if Factor-4 screens are to be treated as TL 15 technology, that all TL 15 built ships should be treated as being capable of having Factor-4 screens as functional technology, rather than "50% chance of a functional factor-4 screen due to..."

Just my thoughts...

 

[aramis]

Actually, Hal, CT TTB lists TL's up to 22. It mentions the Imperium caps at TL 15.

World gen can generate up to TL22.

 

[robject]

Iteration Five, 28 Dec 2009

Knorbes Black Globes
Iteration Five, 28 December 2009

changes in red

1020 Discovery. A cache of appx 2,010 operational ancient Factor-4 black globe generators, are discovered on Knorbes (A12 pp14-15; Wil and Bill's estimate of "more than 2,000"). This is followed shortly by the Kokirrak class being designed to take advantage of the cache (S9 pp19,32,42). Kokirrak development is slipped into the budget and production schedule along with post-Rim War refits et al. The presence or number of non-operational BGGs in the cache is not mentioned. It is possible that the Kokirrak design was the hurried copy of an earlier design, quickly produced to take advantage of the black globes, thus potentially shortening their operational lifetime.

1030 First Flight. All Kokirraks receive one of these BGGs (S9 p42) -- 1200 ships or more (extrapolated from the number of operational globes found plus 5FW p19). The Kokirraks fly for decades, with a service life extending thru the turn of the century (S9 p42).

*** some text in the 1030 entry clipped at Wil's suggestion

1060 Prototypes. Operational data from the Kokirrak globes combines with painstaking research; somewhere around 1060, someone manages to build an experimental Factor-1, then a second... The navy orders 25 prototypes as a test, and designs the Kinunir-class "frontier cruisers" as a financial dodge; the money boys are not told the tonnage.

1077 Deployment. Approvals for the frontier cruiser hit around 1073, and they go into service in 1077 (A1). These new BGGs are inferior to the old ones, and the project is shelved (S5 p3).

1103 Second-Gen Deployment. The old BGGs from the cache which are still in service made a dent in the 4FW, so the project gets picked back up, and pushed for more for the impending 5FW, with a line finally starting serious production of Factor-1 BGGs around 1103 at Vlandian shipyards (S5 p5). Thus, a shortage of BGGs for the Lightning-class cruisers is relieved by 1104 (S5 p3).

1104 Kokirrak BGG Disposition. Half of the Kokirraks are still in service (reasonable assumption by Wil, Bill); of these, only half still have a functioning BGG by 1104 (S9 p42). Thus the operational half-life of the Ancient BGGs (in this context) is 40 years.

 

[rancke]

Knorbes Black Globes
Iteration Five, 28 December 2009

1060 Prototypes. Operational data from the Kokirrak globes combines with painstaking research; somewhere around 1060, someone manages to build an experimental Factor-1, then a second... The navy orders 25 prototypes as a test, and designs the Kinunir-class "frontier cruisers" as a financial dodge; the money boys are not told the tonnage.

The navy ordered 24, not 25.

Were the money boys told about the black globe genrators? And if they weren't, what were they told?

"That place in the engine room there, what's that for?"

"Ah, that's where we plan to mount the... um..."​

As an aside, IMTU the "money men" were the Duchy of Glisten Navy and the Duchy of Regina Navy. It was a joint project between those two and the IN, with each of them ordering a squadron of 8. I even worked out which navy received which ships:

No.   Name            N   Laid down   1st Flgt    Builder        Fate
9512  Shulgi          I   017-1074    243-1077    Ling Standard  in service
9513  Zaggisi         I   123-1074    243-1077    Mars           in service
9514  Kinunir         I   127-1074    240-1077    General        lost 1088
9515  Shulgiili       I   364-1074    264-1077    GSB, AG        in service
9516  Allamu          R   101-1075    134-1078    Clan Severn    lost 1084
9517  Enki Kalamma    G   252-1075    293-1079    Yard 17        in service
9518  Regal Splendor  I   253-1075    234-1079    Yard 17        to Vega 1092
9519  Markashi        I   259-1075    129-1079    Yard 17        in service
9520  Apishal         G   254-1077    015-1080    Ling Standard  in service
9521  Ninkur Sagga    R   009-1078    057-1080    General        lost 1084
9522  Mukhaldim       G   100-1078    143-1088    Mars           in service
9523  Kagukhasaggan   G   345-1077    225-1081    GSB, AG        in service
9524  Kharkar         I   210-1078    113-1082    Clan Severn    in service
9525  Agidda          R   085-1078    325-1083    Yard 17        in service
9526  Luuru           R   090-1080    360-1083    Yard 17        in service
9527  Ukushki Sar     G   095-1080    120-1084    Yard 17        in service
9528  Gaesh           R   210-1083    010-1087    General        paid off 1098
9529  Ishmeilum       I   270-1082    125-1086    Clan Severn    in service
9530  Urshu           G   128-1085    341-1088    GSB, AG        in service
9531  Adamdum         R   140-1086    247-1089    Clan Severn    in service
9532  Adda Dubsar     G   292-1087    -           General        scrapped 1089
9533  -               R   -           -           Yard 17        -
9534  -               G   -           -           Yard 17        -
9535  -               R   -           -           Yard 17        -

N = navy (G = Glisten, I = Imperial, R = Regina).

Shipyards: General is on Regina. Clan Severn is on Rhylanor. Ling Standard is on Mora. Yard 17 is on Mora. Mars is in Glisten. GSB, AG is on... Trin?

Notes: Each of the eight shipyards (if we count Yard 17 as three) were supposed to build three ships. For some reason Mars Yard took ten years to finish the Mukhaldim. For some other reason Ling Standard couldn't/wouldn't/wasn't allowed to build its third ship. So Clan Severn and General each got a fourth contract.

 

[Grognard]

Would it be prudent to reverse engineer the Kinunir and Kokirrak and see if the BGGs in their designs were 2 tons or 25 tons? Then we would know if they were built around the ancient artifacts, or not.

Maybe we could hire a group of adventurers to sneak into General shipyards Regina facility and measure the fittings in the scrapped hull there..... LOL!

 

[Seriayne]

Would it be prudent to reverse engineer the Kinunir and Kokirrak and see if the BGGs in their designs were 2 tons or 25 tons? Then we would know if they were built around the ancient artifacts, or not.

Maybe we could hire a group of adventurers to sneak into General shipyards Regina facility and measure the fittings in the scrapped hull there..... LOL!

Maybe, but I always got the impression that the generators were always pretty small, but that all the fitting mounts, capacitor crossovers, regulation systems etc. took up all the extra 'tonnage' in the installation.

I once also had the sneaking suspicion that all BG's in the Imperium came from ancient sites, more than just the one in the SM, and that they're unable to build the core BGG at all, just the housings, but that'd be silly. The table was for BGG fitting, not manufacture, or, if not manufacture, then the BGG represents a technological shortcoming, an unevenness in the Universal Tech Profile of the whole Imperium.

Are there OTU Hiver or pre-Maghiz Darrain designs that have BG's?