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2400ad

Maybe it's my doubt that a plant can generate 1,000 atmospheres of internal pressure (yes, reread the paper) while generating (or rather cooling itself) to a mere 350 Kelvin while in sequence producing high (denaturing) molarities of base (indeed, oven cleaning concentrations), acid and bleach, then dropping down to ca 100K. The reaction conditions are so harsh that an organic steel smelter is more credible, or indeed a chocolate teapot.

Then maybe my questions about how a uniform semi-crystal structure is going to be achieved (while compressing at 1,000 atm etc.), the very word "nano" (a horrific buzzword, much misused) implies it's unsuitable for spinning.

What you describe is the process we would use to make the composite today, using bulk manufacturing. That process is far outside our kind of biology. But it is a bit like saying that ants cannot make formic acid because their bodies cannot handle heating anhydrous glycerol and oxalic acid to over 100 C; they of course cheat by using an enzymatic reaction instead.

If we want to show that a product cannot be made by a particular kind of biology we have to show that some necessary step is impossible. For example, depositing diamond is probably impossible with Earth biology because the high energy content in the diamond bonds that have to be made using "tools" made out of weaker proteins working in a water phase. It is less clear that fullerene compounds cannot be made.

We have evidence for life surviving at high pressure (Halomonas saliara apparently requires 1000 atm pressures) and high molarities (halophiles thrive in saturated salt solutions), we have plenty of bioproducts containing very complex crosslinked structures with various kinds of nanoscale order, neutrophil granulocytes actually produce hypochlorous acid (bleach) and there are examples of organisms producing cell-free composites. These are organisms that occur naturally; it seems reasonable that their performance can be pushed much further by specializing them. For example, halobacteria are limited by the energy demands of resisting the osmotic gradient. In nature they can only get energy from sunlight, but in a biotech environment we could supply them with suitable chemical energy directly and at a higher rate (we could even remove large chunks of their metabolism and run that externally). So even if the production of organic beanstalk composite would take something like the process in the paper, it is not that far removed from what conceivably could be done by very tweaked cells.

Chocolate teapots are only useless if they are made of normal chocolate; one can easily imagine a bioengineered "chocolate" that does not rely on fat adhesion for structural strength (maybe some kind of lacquer instead) that would actually work as a teapot. It would of course be unlikely to taste any good.

That said, I think the Pentapods would be stupid if they forgo the tried and tested human materials science (and the existing economies of scale) to solve the problem in a much trickier way using their own technology. After all, using bacteria to nanocrystalise metal is far less efficient than using a forge if you want to make something macroscopic. They would be better off evolving organisms making beanstalk component chemicals like long fullerene strands more cheaply than human bulk processes. Still, if there was an embargo on selling hightech to Provolutionist rogue nations they would be motivated to find their own biotech solution. A bit like Germany using hydrogen in the Hindenburg because of the helium embargo.
 
>Or that fusion power is not enough to extract them?
>Ore mining is independent of ore refinement

If power and heat costs were marginal, it would be worthwhile 'mining' Earth's sea water for minerals including metals today. Would have to be done on a massive and integrated scale but if the power were basically free ..... desalinated water, fertilisers and nearly pure metals (probably in powder form) would be the result with less harmful byproducts than normal mining/refining.

flash boiling the seawater of 'metal poor' Joi would be the most difficult way of gaining metals. extracting it from ordinary dirt gains you far more and a far broader mix of outputs, especially if you don't need the seawater>freshwater byproduct.

Here we could get a fair amount of metal, but the energy required is amazing. A kg of gold for example would, ISTR, involve rotovaping a cubic mile of seawater requiring an energy input on the order of 1x 10^19j (i.e. 1,000x 1GW fusion reactors working for about 7.6 years), if we wanted the water back another factor of 10 is involved.

(Incidently, others in my research group work on desalination, since distillation is an economic non-starter, even before energy costs started to rise).

The problem with mining is one of concentration. There is metal everywhere, but unless it's concentrated then it's difficult to use. This concentration needs vulcanism (hence Aurore, subjected to large tidal forces probably is very rich), and obviously needs metals present in the first place (a function of planetary density)
 
The problem with mining is one of concentration. There is metal everywhere, but unless it's concentrated then it's difficult to use. This concentration needs vulcanism (hence Aurore, subjected to large tidal forces probably is very rich), and obviously needs metals present in the first place (a function of planetary density)

Most garden worlds would have active volcanism and plate tectonics (otherwise they would be post-gardens or glaciers due to a stopped carbon cycle). Even without volcanoes I would expect certain ores or deposits to form due to density-dependent sedimentation along rivers. There are a lot of processes that can enrich certain elements in certain places, from meteor impacts (Crater) to salt lakes. Low-density gardens would have smaller iron cores and maybe less metal in magma, but hydrothermal separation would still occur.

The big issue is whether ores are rich enough to mine economically, but this is dependent on demand and technology. If the demand is high people are going to use high energy, relatively expensive methods to squeeze elements out of local ores, or import it more cheaply from a nearby belt, or just use a substitute. Maybe Kie Yuma has little iron ore, but that just means Trilon will use advanced composites where most planets use iron.
 
>or just use a substitute

if people are going to use desperate measures to extract metals like seawater mining you can bet that substitution and efficiency are going to be key considerations

>fusion reactors working for
It seems you are thinking wastefully and linearly. the whole operation kind of depends on the process used. remember I'm suggesting a massive and heavily integrated complex being used. the heat from various stages would have to be recycled in other stages

>if we wanted the water back another factor of 10 is involved

if solar evaporation/distillation starts the process as as an initial concentrator then you are substituting land for power and recover some (fresh) water at the start with little input. You could also help things along by heating the 'brine' with the steam from other stages .... perhaps after its passed thru a steam turbine to convert some of the heat energy back into power ?

also natural consensation / night temperature chilling effects can be used to recover some of the water from the later concentration processes .... when not used gainfully in other processes .... the rest we leave to the natural rain cycle as well as possibly generating some of the power required. Or do what the russians did and pipe the hot water / steam around for residential heating before dumping it into the environment
 
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Most garden worlds would have active volcanism and plate tectonics (otherwise they would be post-gardens or glaciers due to a stopped carbon cycle).

Based on the description, Joi seems to be on the verge of becoming a post-garden world. That said, as you point out, there are certain to be anomalous deposits.
 
I think extraction from seawater is a unlikely possibility even with plentiful energy; it is very inefficient unless you are looking for salt (and then you would be better off by going to a salt flat where nature has already concentrated it anyway).

If we look at the typical composition of a terrestrial planet it is going to have a crust made of silicates with plentiful aluminum (around 8% per weight). If you have lots of energy you can hence always make aluminum and ceramics. Iron is generally common (5% by weight) so it would be unlikely that there would be absolutely no sources. As for other elements, calcium, sodium and potassium are quite common but not that useful as building materials (but have lots of industrial uses). A terrestrial planet is also going to retain a lot of volatiles (water!)

Continental crust is generally enriched in "incompatible elements" (elements that don't dissolve nicely in liquid magma), and may actually be the main reservoirs of them. These elements are LILE (large-ion lithophile elements) potassium, rubidium, caesium, strontium, barium, rare earth elements, thorium, and uranium, and HFSE (high field strength elements) zirconium, niobium, hafnium, and tantalum. This doesn't mean they have to form good ores, but they are around. I think this explains why King is tantalum-rich: it is such a big world that the incompatible density in the crust becomes pretty high (bigger worlds have a smaller crust volume compared to the mantle volume), and then erosion and active volcanism concentrates it. Conversely, small worlds, even of high density, may have low incompatible levels in the crust.

As a rule of thumb, the more a world has been subjected to transformations the likelier it is to have high concentrations of certain things in certain places, and this makes it a potential mining site.

I think a post-garden that has ceased continental drift will likely have a lot of old deposits formed during the more active eras by volcanism and biology. It might still be enriching certain elements, for example coltan sands (a tantalum ore) formed by weathering and deposition. Oil and other organic resources may be very plentiful.

Pregardens are still not infant planets (2300 doesn't have a real option for hadean volcanic worlds), and seem to have been around for a billion years or more. That is enough for some volcanic separation and ore formation. I would just expect them to be less rich than a mature planet.

Desert worlds are likely to be pretty bad sources of ores. They are generally small (no incompatibles concentration), their continental drift is long over or never occurred (still, there could be some old deposits - ores don't go bad) and they tend to be unpleasant places. Hothouses are also problematic since the lack of water inhibits continental drift and their climate makes mining hard. Some might have cyclic crust melts though, which could concentrate certain minerals.

Outer system bodies generally have much more ice and volatiles than anything else; this may actually be valuable for supplying a space infrastructure (nitrogen compounds are expensive in space, yet needed for habitat ecosystems and as atmosphere filler). An interesting category is gas giant moons that have been partially molten: they can have deposits of light semi-volatile elements like sulphur, phosphor or arsenic that could be of interest.

Asteroid mining is actually more of a high-energy, low-grade ore effort than planetary mining since most asteroids are pretty homogeneous chunks (a good find means that it happens to have an unusually useful composition); the economic strength lies in being above the gravity well rather than in the groundside value of the material.
 
What of the political situation on Earth? Are there new states? Central Africa, Algeria becoming independent of France is interesting, but would Japanese Federation [or rather, the Japanese-Filipino Federation as renamed due to pressure by Filipinos] would still exist in 2400 AD?
 
What of the political situation on Earth? Are there new states? Central Africa, Algeria becoming independent of France is interesting, but would Japanese Federation [or rather, the Japanese-Filipino Federation as renamed due to pressure by Filipinos] would still exist in 2400 AD?

I'm guessing of course, but I would see some changes because of trends described in 2320 AD. Seeing what is happening 80 years into the future is quite a bit harder than just 20 years.

- Argentina finally tips the Latin American balance and becomes the dominant power. Argentina's loss of their ally Mexico (because of democratic changes), weakens this dominance. There will be political changes in Argentina, maybe into democracy or landed aristocracy will be replaced by a media aristocracy.

- Mysore manages to unite India, or at least a significant part of the Indian states. If this enables an economic development of India, it could well have the same dynamic effects we see in our times.

- Manchuria turns from Central Asia and quickly dominates Canton and rump-China. An eastward looking Manchuria will probably see Japan tightens its alliances in the region, as issues can follow.

- Africa is uncertain. There will be interaction between the UAR and Azania, and French Africa is right in the middle. I think that French Africa is too rich and self-reliant to get dominated by either. Independence? Possibly, but the ties to France are strong, so it depends much on what happens in metropolitan France.

- The Stellar states will probably add to their numbers, with some worlds becoming independent, or starting up as independent. Indeed, the influence of some of the new stellar states could start to be felt on Earth, meddling in the affairs of the Core.

- Technology, ah, that is the hard part. I think that the 2320 AD revision did it right, some developments in line with what 2300 AD had already introduced. Still, even this provided for many conflicts under the surface of the world. Now, adding 80 years to 2320 is a far larger step, where a major disruptive technological development could have happened. The transhumanist development bonanza, as described by Anders in the first post, is possible and could be enjoyable. But it could also destabilise GDW's setting, that has some inherent conflicts with modern science fiction. I would advice to pick one disruptive technological development in the next 80 years and focus on that.

:toast:
 
Does Manchuria finally re-unify China?

I see it as possible. On page 56 in 2320 AD it says that Manchuria's misfortunes in the two Central Asian Wars has lead to Manchuria starting to talk about "Chinese Territorial Integrity" which worries Canton and its buffer state rump-China very much.

Even if we say that Manchuria's efforts do not lead to a war, it seems unlikely that Canton and China would be able to resist Manchuria's advances.

In fact, it may have been Manchuria's Central Asian ambitions that held it back, as it brought it into conflict with Russia and a still strong France. With Manchuria grabbing for a united China, I do not see that powerful opposition. Perhaps Japan would oppose, but there is less certainty about France, that has been into conflict with Canton about Indochina.
 
I see it as possible. On page 56 in 2320 AD it says that Manchuria's misfortunes in the two Central Asian Wars has lead to Manchuria starting to talk about "Chinese Territorial Integrity" which worries Canton and its buffer state rump-China very much.

Even if we say that Manchuria's efforts do not lead to a war, it seems unlikely that Canton and China would be able to resist Manchuria's advances.

In fact, it may have been Manchuria's Central Asian ambitions that held it back, as it brought it into conflict with Russia and a still strong France. With Manchuria grabbing for a united China, I do not see that powerful opposition. Perhaps Japan would oppose, but there is less certainty about France, that has been into conflict with Canton about Indochina.


And as the Empire of China?
 
And as the Empire of China?

Why? Bear in mind, the "Manchurian" population is almost certainly a misprint (out by a factor of 10, it's ca. 272m, possibly including Korea and Tibet). In population term, "Canton" is the dominant power (is indeed it is today).
 
Manchuria has, according to 2320 AD page 57, 890 million inhabitants (not including Korea and Tibet). Canton, according to page 60, 522 million.

Rump- China, Korea and Tibet are listed generally in the "Asia" entry among Tier 4 nations on page 67, so we don't know their precise population.

As for a reunited China? Possibly problematic as Canton and China are so much poorer and less organized than Manchuria.
 
I think I agree. Both China and Canton claim that Manchuria is not the "real" China and their own governments claim themselves as the real successors of China.

Rump China claims that it preserved the very name China and it was the legitimate government before the Twilight War.

Canton's case is similar, but then it claims that they are the legitimate government since the fall of the Qing Dynasty and those two governments are illegitimate [basing on the hypothesis that Taiwan wasn't mentioned at all in the Twilight War sourcebooks and possibly the ones who enticed the southern Chinese warlords to come to their side, transferring the capital from Taipei to Canton, and creating Canton as we know it.

Also, who are the new space-faring nations? Do Rump China and Rump India get active in space?
 
Also, who are the new space-faring nations? Do Rump China and Rump India get active in space?

There was a discussion about this on the forum. Checking out the entries for rump-India (Indian states, page 60 in 2320 AD) and rump-China (Asia, page 67 in 2320 AD) indicates only spaceplanes for interface capability, no spaceships.
 
So by 2400 AD, they still do not build starships? I don't think they would be "backwards" like that for long. After all, they may have good researchers and workers to work at the higher tiered nations for the technology. Maybe they still do not have the money and the economy to build starships or even buy one, but they certainly had a national will to have one. ;)

Do both rump-China and rump-India finally get their innards together for good and have a stablized economy just like their neighbors?
 
Rump- China actually did get a small description of its own in the Earth/Cybertech Sourcebook page 56 that states that it is mainly mountains and low population with people clinging to the ancient ways of their ancestors.
 
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