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Al Morai and Implications

Let's see...

- Lots and lots of 'funky' sector data.
- Not enough 'important' worlds in long settled regions like Vland.
- Ilelish, the seat of two major rebellions, has no 'important' worlds.
- The Marches; which is continually described as a 'frontier', has too many 'important' worlds.
- And much, much, more!

Yet, you feel certain you can make the data work.

What's that phrase I'm looking for? Oh yes!

Garbage In, Garbage Out.

Watching this particular train wreck is going to be fun!


Bill
 
Ah Bill, you're taking this way too seriously...

I do have to decide what to do with Book 3, though. Can't throw it out. Is it average Imperium year 1110, or not?
 
Hmm, part of the problem may be that Book 3 (world building, right?) is not supposed to be an OTU aid but a YTU aid, perhaps?

I think Bill's not so much trying to rain on this parade as play devil's advocate, like myself, and suggest some direction. Of course I could be wrong about Bill, again
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In any case he makes good points, don't let the delivery of them blind you
 
Originally posted by robject:
Dan - let's review SMC and see what those numbers really are. There are errors in the book, and I picked the most likely mix of ships.

If I recall correctly, the count of Gazelles is on the second or third paragraph of the right-hand page of the Al Morai section. (I need to create a table of contents for SMC).

I don't remember the wording of the worlds served, either. I'll look at that, too, though it's a trivial enough difference to wave one's hands at.
Yep, that's where I see just 4 Gazelles, for the whole route
What's more, unless you make the MK's bigger they won't have any hardpoints. Of course the Shuttles may be armed (had better be armed imo) if the ship isn't with only 4 Gazelles for some 50 systems. Granted most of those systems are pretty safe with local patrols. So maybe the 4 Gazelles are enough if rotated to hotspots as needed and generally assigned to a (very) few trouble systems.

Originally posted by robject:
</font><blockquote>quote:</font><hr />
I think it's closer to a monthly visit by a single type MK with the SMC numbers.
Spread out evenly, maybe? I squinted at the routes and thought, surely, surely those ships would spend a bit more time running goods to the larger ports.</font>[/QUOTE]Yep, spread out since that's the way trade works in Book 2, 1 week in jump and 1 week on planet finding passengers, freight, and speculative cargo. As well as crew shore leave and minor maintenance (life support recharge at least). Skipping through a system doesn't save money, it costs.

Originally posted by robject:
</font><blockquote>quote:</font><hr />
Probably something to do with their military shipping contracts and mail service subsidies.
Thank you - those are excellent points.

In fact, those are such excellent points that I have to ruminate on them a bit. Mail contracts are nice -- they subsidize ship payments, plus pay KCr5 for 5 dtons per ship, don't they? Do you suspect that military contracts are even sweeter?
</font>[/QUOTE]That gave me pause. I hadn't really considered what it might be. Certainly mail rates would suggest a degree of priority and bonus. Tough call but I'd probably say yep. The problem is the ship needs to be armed for mail, and I would think doubly so for military shipments, and the design doesn't mention it nor would it fit.

I do like the idea of special contracts being a very desirable item and allowing ships to make a profit. Though contract ship hire for profit is not supported by the charter rates (which have always felt broken to me). There's a good essay there I think.
 
What should you do? Here's my list:

- Throw out the entireGenii/Sunbane data set. It is worthless. AotI shows hi-pop worlds in Ilelish where Genii/Sunbane does not.

- Use Atlas of the Imperium for the location of all worlds, number of all worlds, number of hi-pop worlds, and types of starports for each world within a sector.

- Use LBB:3 as LBB:3 with absolutely no variants. For example: You don't need stellar data so Malenfant's excellent work is not needed here.

- Apply LBB:3 and only LBB:3 to each world listed in AotI.

- Calculate your trade routes.

What will all this work tell you? Hold onto your hat...

Nothing.

Why? Because the UWPs you just generated are not the canonical UWPs that's why.

All we know canonically are the names, locations, and starports of hi-pop worlds and the locations and starports of all the other worlds. We don't know population multipliers, we don't know government codes, and we don't know travel zones all of which will effect the economic data 'rabbit' you're trying to wrest from this very suspect 'hat'.

Look at pop codes for example. Without knowing the canonical pop codes and pop multipliers, your sector population can be off wildly. Two pop-8 multiplier-5 worlds 'equal' one hi-pop world, but it will take one hundred pop-7 multiplier-1 worlds to do the same. While all those unamed worlds in AotI have populations below 1 billion, they all can have populations ranging from 1 to 999,999,999. Your 'guess-timates' and 'data tweaking' cannot handle such a wide variation, especially considering the strong link between population and economics.

You can grind out all the UWPs you want, but not a single one of them will be a canonical UWP tied to canonical Imperial system. Because none of your UWPs are canonical, any data you create and any inferences you make using those UWPs will tell us nothing about the Imperium.

You're wasting your time and you're wasting your time trying to create little more than a non-canonical economic model 'stick' with which to beat the most recent canonical model of OTU interstellar economics; GT:Far Trader.

Let me sum up: Because the UWPs you have are not canonical and because the UWPs you will create are not canonical, anything you infer from their study or manipulation will not be canoncial.

Label it all 'IMTU' and let the rest slide.


Have fun,
Bill
 
Dear Rob -

Originally posted by robject:
Ah Bill, you're taking this way too seriously...
Where's Whipsnade when we need him?

(He's probably the one who's responsible for tipping the scales... :D )

I do have to decide what to do with Book 3, though. Can't throw it out. Is it average Imperium year 1110, or not?
I take Book 3 as 1107... but maybe you're thinking of Supplement 3: The Spinward Marches, copyright 1979. ;)

Which is more likely to be 1100 data, to tie in with the Adventure 0: The Imperial Fringe ("lunatic rim") campaign...
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Originally posted by far-trader:
In any case he makes good points, don't let the delivery of them blind you
On the contrary, to me, delivery is at least as important as the payload.


Dear Hyphen,

Thanks -- I also take LBB3 as late 3I, and I think it's reasonable to do that. I think it provides a yardstick by which Sunbane data (et al) can be measured as a whole. Despite errors in the data, the averages work.

And we can fix errors.
 
Originally posted by Bill Cameron:
Al Morai may be a 'typical' sector-wide line as Robject suggests. However, the Marches in which it operates is not a 'typical' sector at all.
I don't think it is. If you compare its assets to those of Oberlindes and Akerut (two subsector-wide companies) they are roughly the same. I would expect a typical sector-wide company to be at least an order of magnitude greater than a typical subsector-wide line. (Just an opinion).

Of course, Oberlindes and Akerut may be atypical subsector-wide lines...

Another fact to consider is that (IIRC) Al Morai services worlds with Class C starports. I think Al Morai may well be a niche company.


Hans
 
Originally posted by far-trader:
Yep, that's where I see just 4 Gazelles, for the whole route.
One possible explanation would be that there are other patrol ships owned by other merchant companies who make up the slack and actually protect Al Morai ships in most of those 50 systems its merchants visit. A mutual assistance deal of some kind.


Hans
 
Some random comments.

And, yes, TNE's RSB did give us a look at Deneb, Reft, Trojan Reach, and parts of Corridor. However, because TNE takes place after the fall of the Imperium, that data is useless to us also.)
TNE's RSB covers all of the Spinward Marches and Deneb, a quarter of Trojan Reaches, and most of Reft. It does not touch Corridor at all.

Those UWPs are relevant however. The 1117 UWP listings are quite useful, as DGP was exceptionally lazy when they made them. All DGP did to change the 1110 UWPs into 1117 UWPs was to change the allegiance codes. They didn't change the UWPs themselves. Therefore, all 1117 UWPs are, in effect, also prewar UWPs.

Seriously. Go look at some of the worlds "conquered" by the Vargr or Aslan. If you mentally switch the allegiances back to what they were, you will see what I mean.

This means that the Marches was not 'generated', it was 'crafted' instead.
Well, if the Marches was truly "crafted", they did a pretty poor job. While the Sword Worlds subsector was done pretty well, the rest of it was still way, way too random, and doesn't always agree with its backstory.

The marches have significant chunks defined in TTA far beyond UWP. Mostly upon the Spinward Main.
TTA only covers worlds in the Aramis subsector, and it is fairly cursory. (Similarly, TTB covers worlds in the Regina subsector to an equal depth). Neither book ranges outside their respective subsectors, except is very broad strokes.

The Spinward Marches has been seriously monkeyed with: it's significantly more industrialized than ALL of the other sectors, as well as the average.
It is? I have taken some long, long looks at the four sectors in the Domain of Deneb, and I don't notice a huge advantage in the Spinward Marches over either Deneb or the Trojan Reaches. In some ways (like population) it actually lags the other two.

We may be looking at different things, however. What I look for are worlds that are high population (Hi) and starfaring (TL 9+). I do look for In, but Hi and TL are much more important. I will try to note significant (TL C+) pop 8 worlds. Everything else is completely irrelevant on a macro-economic scale.

On that basis, the Spinward Marches isn't that hot.

If that's not enough, Deneb and Vland (Vland! Can you believe it?) are incredibly, seriously underdeveloped. Vland... (shakes head in disbelief).
I can't help on Vland, but what data are you looking at for Deneb? Unless it is DGP data (from either MTJ3 or RSB) then it is completely irrelevant, and is useless for anything other than sucking up bandwidth. (BTW, this goes for the Trojan Reaches, too.)

And from that, I know that Deneb is not bad off. It has more population than the Spinward Marches, and good technology. And though it may have fewer TL F hi pop worlds (it may not, I will have to check again), it does have many TL C+ worlds, and even has a hi pop TL G world.
 
A couple of things.

First, the Imperial Interstellar Scout Service most recently mapped the whole of charted space in 1065, and there hasn't been a comprehensive survey since.
The Spinward Marches Supplement is dated as 1105.
The Imperial Fringe Adventure has the characters carrying out one of the IISS's special surveys, which is a world data audit conducted every twenty years. This one begins in 1100.

It still has Regina as TL10 ;)

Are GDW published MT sectors considered canon for this?
If so we have data about three more sectors: Massilia (Knightfall), Diaspora (folio adventure), and HinterWorlds (Challenge special supplement).

HTH
 
I don't care what in-game explanation you use, Regina's TL was a retcon. (And it is not the only one.)

I have only really dealt with the Domain of Deneb. So I don't know if what I found with it (that the UWPs are all really pre-Rebellion) applies to any other sectors produced for MT. I have not seen any of those three products, so I am not able to even take a guess.
 
Bill,

I might throw out Sunbane and use AotI... is the AotI data online somewhere?


Originally posted by daryen:

We may be looking at different things, however. What I look for are worlds that are high population (Hi) and starfaring (TL 9+). I do look for In, but Hi and TL are much more important. I will try to note significant (TL C+) pop 8 worlds. Everything else is completely irrelevant on a macro-economic scale.

Daryen,

Please let me know what your scoring rules are. You are using three metrics somehow:

Hi TL9+
Pop8 TLC+
In

It's because we're using different scoring rules. Mine are:

Four or more of:
[ Starport A/B, TLA+, Ri, Ag, In, Hi, Cp, Cx ]

Mine might be too restrictive.

I should count worlds which are simply Hi In.

Of course Regina's TL change was a retcon.
 
Originally posted by robject:
I might throw out Sunbane and use AotI... is the AotI data online somewhere?
Robject,

Trying to pay attention to both payload AND delivery here. You have my apologies, by the way.

AFAIK, AotI is only available online at eBay. And, as Daryen can tell you, it's not worth the prices it normally sells for. FFE must have it in the Reprint pipeline, but your guess is as good as mine regarding a release date.

However, if you do use AotI for locations, hi-pops, and starport, you'll still have to generate your own UWPs. UWPs that will not be canonical.

That's the central problem in all this; We simply do not have the basic data required. And we can't generate the data/UWPs either. You generate one set, I generate another set, and we won't produce the same results. Why? Population code multipliers is why.

Check out this example. It only takes two UWP pop-code 8 worlds with a pop multiplier of 5 equal one hi-pop world. Yet, it requires ten UWP pop-code 8 worlds with a pop multiplier of 1 to do the same thing.

So, you roll the 'right' pop multipliers and your generated subsector has the equivalent of another hi-pop world; a 'virtual' hi-pop world as it were.

Then, using the SAME subsector as you used, I roll the 'wrong' pop multipliers and my version of what was SAME subsector doesn't have that 'virtual' hi-pop world.

Now the 'Cascade o' Consequences' begins:

- The 'virtual' hi-pop world found in your version of the subsector will greatly influence trade routes in that subsector.
- Those routes will in turn greatly influence the economy of the subsector.
- Those subsector routes and the larger internal subsector economy they represent will then make larger the trade route links the subsector has with the subsectors around it.
- In some cases, additional trade routes between the subsector and the surrounding subsectors will be created.
- Finally, those different/larger/additional trade routes will effect the economies of the surrounding subsectors they link to.

On the other hand, ny subsector - which was the SAME as your's until ONE die roll was applied - is completely different. The subsector I generated has:

- Different/smaller/fewer trade routes.
- A smaller subsector economy.
- Different/smaller/fewer links with the surrounding subsectors.
- Smaller economies in the surrounding subsectors.

For those who are counting, a bare handful of pop multiplier rolls in a single subsector end up effecting the economy of that subsector, the economy of the surrounding eight subsectors, the economy of the sector in which they're located, and finally economy of the Imperium as a whole. Talk about the Butterfly Effect!

You can generate UWPs from now until the Heat Death of the Universe and figure economies and budgets from each set. However, unitl those UWPs are canonical UWPs your numbers mean nothing. We don't have the canonical UWPs and we can't generate the canoniocal UWPs so your well meaning effort is doomed to where an 'IMTU' label. I can use the same methodology as you and come up with an entirely different picture thanks to ultimately random nature of Traveller system generation.

I suppose you could generate a few thousand Imperiums and come up with a mean of some kind. However, that would still be a rough approximation. We simply don't the real data we need, the real UWPs. And we'll never have them.

Daryen was kind enough to correct my failing memory with regards to TNE's 'Regency Sourcebook'.
Daryen,

Mea culpa. RSB does not incluce any portion of Corridor.

GDW's 'laziness' regarding their copying of DGP's previous work; the ca. 1117 UWPs, allows us to see just how poor DGP's original work was.

The DGP UWPs were not generated in accordance with either LBB:6 Scouts or MT's sysgen rules. I have no doubt that they were meant to be generated in accordance with those to systems, but the method used to generate them was poorly programmed and/or applied. DGP also failed to 'reality check' the results their UWP generator produced. While there are other examples of this, the best known is Esperanza/New Islands/Reft.

Esperanza was originally 'crafted' as part of a the A:5 Trillion Credit Squadron wargame. GDW was first, foremost, and always a wargmaing company. They brought the wargaming idea of 'play balance' to all their work. The various worlds in A:5 were 'crafted' with LBB:3 in mind and thus before the inclusion of pop code multipliers into Traveller sysgen. However, the eight major worlds in TCS were carefully 'play balanced' with regards to TL and population. When DGP produced their UWPs for the Reft Sector, any 'play balance' in TCS was destroyed.

DGP produced and published a pop code multiplier for Esperanza that turned it into the 363.63kg gorilla of the Islands Cluster. Where the world had 10 billion people before, it now had over FORTY billion thanks to DGP.

Because of DGP's failure to 'reality check' the extended UWPs they generated for MT for either incorrect generation or failure to fit pre-existing canon, I am more than squeamish to accept any of their UWPs. And, because, TNE merely copied DGP's known flawed work, I am more than squeamish to accept any of RSB's UWPs.

IMTU, the only 'canonical' UWPs are those in the Spinward Marches, Solomani Rim, and Gvurrdon. All others are suspect, including those in T20 because I am not sure of their 'ancestry'; i.e. are they copies of DGP's work, Sunbane data, or something new?


Have fun,
Bill
 
Originally posted by Bill Cameron:

I suppose you could generate a few thousand Imperiums and come up with a mean of some kind. However, that would still be a rough approximation. We simply don't the real data we need, the real UWPs. And we'll never have them.
Thank you, Bill. I know what you mean.

Actually, in my mind (perhaps not in others'), it's the high pop, high TL worlds that frame the 'economy'. Pop 8 worlds and under, regardless of their TL or wealth, are small potato(e)s. That's just an assumption, but it's reasonable I think.

Second, I was surprised at how few random UWPs it took before the same trade code/TL mixes started showing up. I generated one million random UWPs, and the variations slowed to a virtual crawl after the first few thousand, and nearly stopped altogether after the first 100,000. In other words, the mean is easier than you might think.

And a rough approximation is about as close as I think we can ever get, even if we had "canon" UWPs for the Imperium.

Again I say, we don't even need all the UWPs to get our 'economic' estimate. Just knowing the pop 9 and A worlds -- even just knowing the proportion and types of pop 9 and A worlds -- will get us that. All the rest is mere detail.

I suppose I have to add IMTU.
 
Originally posted by robject:

Actually, in my mind (perhaps not in others'), it's the high pop, high TL worlds that frame the 'economy'. Pop 8 worlds and under, regardless of their TL or wealth, are small potato(e)s. That's just an assumption, but it's reasonable I think.

[/QB]
I'm of the same mind for MTU.

There certainly will be the rare exceptions for worlds that have some rare natural resource, or unique service (world's with exceptional artists, exceptional interpreters, etc.) that are relatively indepedent of tech level. High Pop but middling tech worlds might be important for labor and very imprtant if near a high tech but low pop world.

Nevertheless, you can do a good model as you suggest and simply add a "uniqueness" factor to account for the exceptions.
 
Originally posted by robject:
Actually, in my mind (perhaps not in others'), it's the high pop, high TL worlds that frame the 'economy'. Pop 8 worlds and under, regardless of their TL or wealth, are small potato(e)s. That's just an assumption, but it's reasonable I think.
As long as GDP is roughly linear in population, which it should be unless something very strange is going on, the economy will be dominated by the Hi-pop worlds (the effects of TL depend on exactly how you scale GDP with TL). Using a 2d6-2 throw for population code, Hi-pop worlds will cover 97% of the population, and thus probably close to 97% of the economy.
 
Originally posted by robject:
Please let me know what your scoring rules are.
First, I want to admit that my goals are different than yours. You are primarily interested in economics; I am more interested in the political implications. You are looking at economic power; I am looking at political power. But then I figure that they are pretty equivalent.

My base "scoring" is [population x TL]*. Nothing formal, of course. And it shouldn't be pure TL either, as the effects of increasing TL are not linear. After that, pretty much everything else is irrelevant.

On a subjective level, I do make a note of In worlds, but don't factor them in. I suppose I should give them a bonus (like 10% or 20%) to honor the setting.

I also initially keep track of pop 8 worlds. If it has a big enough pop multiplier, I count it as a pop 9. If there are enough together, I count them collectively. (The second almost never happens.)

I really ought to program that up.

[Edit]
* By "population", I mean pop digit * multiplier. As Bill mentions below, there is a huge difference between 10 billion (what Entrope really is) and 70 billion (what many internet files say Entrope is).
 
Originally posted by robject:
Actually, in my mind (perhaps not in others'), it's the high pop, high TL worlds that frame the 'economy'. Pop 8 worlds and under, regardless of their TL or wealth, are small potato(e)s. That's just an assumption, but it's reasonable I think.
Robject,

It's a reasonable assumption of you do not include population code mulitpliers. Throw in the multipliers and you'll get 'virtual' hi-pop worlds that will skew your data.

Second, I was surprised at how few random UWPs it took before the same trade code/TL mixes started showing up.
Again, did those UWPs include population code modifiers? A LBB:6 world populated in the 500 million to 900 million range is quite different from the LBB:3's default 100 million variety.

Pop code multipliers will effect your real hi-pop worlds too.

Please generate and add that single number to your sample then see what sort of a range things 'settle' into. Having code A worlds ranging from 10 to 90 billion should broaden the range of possible outcomes quite a bit.


Have fun,
Bill

P.S. Are you just grinding out 11,000 systems in a formless 'chunk' and examining them? Or are you providing them with locations too? With taking the physical locations of worlds into account, your samples are of even less use. You can't examine the 'plum' without the 'pudding'.

Location is why I brought up all that stuff about subsectors and 'virtual' hi-pop worlds. The amount of trade a world has will depend on it's location as well as its population.
 
Originally posted by Bill Cameron:
GDW's 'laziness' regarding their copying of DGP's previous work; the ca. 1117 UWPs, allows us to see just how poor DGP's original work was.
I don't know. DGP did do a lot of really good stuff. But they also dropped the ball on some things. The UWPs are one of those things.

Because of DGP's failure to 'reality check' the extended UWPs they generated for MT for either incorrect generation or failure to fit pre-existing canon, I am more than squeamish to accept any of their UWPs. And, because, TNE merely copied DGP's known flawed work, I am more than squeamish to accept any of RSB's UWPs.
Well, for a personal TU, you can use whatever data you want. Unfortunately, regardless of how good or bad the DGP data is, it is canon, and therefore anyone who wants to work with canon is stuck with it.
 
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