Aslan Preview

[Ishmael]

not sure if I should post this here, but

K'kree might have female biased sex ratios too, but there is a twist.....
in wild earth herd animals, the excess males are often weeded out through gender-biased predation. But if they have eliminated all the predators, there is no male-biased predation, so what about those excess males?

I know nothing of otu k'kree... never played with them either.

 

[rancke]

Ranke
I must humbly apologise. I misread a part of your response and sent my reply which was based on my mistake.

Forgive me.

I still stand be my reasons for using the models that I chose.
We'll just have to disagree on that.
I hope my gaffe was my last.

Don't worry about it. No harm done, no offense taken. And I can agree to disagree.


Hans

 

[Whipsnade]

am I on the wrong track? or in the right ballpark....

Ishmael,

I don't think you're on the wrong track and I think you're definitely in the right ballpark too.

You post contains quite a bit of stuff that deserves some actually thinking. That's why I'm not going to post a response yet. I want to re-read it a couple of times, let it percolate a while, and sleep on it too.

There's a lot of "meat" there, I want to do it justice.

Thanks for all the work you just handed us!


Regards,
Bill

 

[rancke]

Canon states there is a 1:3 male-to-female ratio. Such skewed birth ratios is an evolutionary disadvantage, so it seemed that a such a birth ratio wouldn't plausibly arise.

Why would a skewed birth rate be a disadvantage? Especially when the skew is in favor of females?

I'm asking because I'm interested, not because I think it's a telling point. Evolution doesn't necessarily give you the optimum solution, it just gives you a better one than the immediate competitors for your ecological niche. Considering how little we really know about the evolutionary pressures that has shaped the Aslan, I don't think you can really say much, either way, about the plausibility of a 1:3 birth skew.



Hans

 

[far-trader]

Why would a skewed birth rate be a disadvantage?

I'm not sure but I'd think it ties in with infant mortality rates, generations, and genetic diversity.

If the birth ratio* is 1 male per 3 females and the infant mortality rate is at all significant you stand a chance of having a generation that is seriously short of male genetic diversity. Which is likely to cause a cascade in the next generation. It could spell the extinction of the species.

Of course being alien biology who knows. The same rules need not apply of course.

* and we still need a cite for that, AM1 is not clear, or clearly not birth if by not clearly stating it as birth ratio we should presume it is not birth ratio but population ratio, or rather as it says "society" ratio

 

[far-trader]

Ishmael,

I don't think you're on the wrong track and I think you're definitely in the right ballpark too.

I think I'm with Bill on this. Gave it a quick read, need to have seconds and then digest it

(I'm also wondering if this would be better broken off into it's own "Aslan Biology and Sociology" thread? Though I'm not quite sure where the split would be made, a couple pages back at least?)

 

[rancke]

I'm not sure but I'd think it ties in with infant mortality rates, generations, and genetic diversity.

If the birth ratio* is 1 male per 3 females and the infant mortality rate is at all significant you stand a chance of having a generation that is seriously short of male genetic diversity. Which is likely to cause a cascade in the next generation. It could spell the extinction of the species.

Assuming that is true (and I don't mind assuming that), it doesn't guarantee extinction, just makes it more likely. ISTR some species here on Earth that appear to've been down to very low numbers (an analogous state of low genetic diversity) and recovered.

Of course being alien biology who knows. The same rules need not apply of course.

There's that too.

* and we still need a cite for that, AM1 is not clear, or clearly not birth if by not clearly stating it as birth ratio we should presume it is not birth ratio but population ratio, or rather as it says "society" ratio

Agreed, the text is ambiguous. I will say, however, that until right now, I don't think anyone has ever interpreted it to mean anything other than a 1:3 male:female birth ratio. And given that Aslan duels and wars are said to be carefully regulated to reduce their lethality, I don't fancy the death rates you'd need to reduce a 1:1 ratio to a 1:3 ratio. Come to that, I don't think it at all plausible that a culturally driven male death rate would be that uniform across all of Aslandom, be it those who live inside the Hierate or those who live outside the Hierate.


Hans

 

[far-trader]

... And given that Aslan duels and wars are said to be carefully regulated to reduce their lethality, I don't fancy the death rates you'd need to reduce a 1:1 ration to a 1:3 ratio. Come to that, I don't think it at all plausible that a culturally driven male death rate would be that uniform across all of Aslandom, be it those who live inside the Hierate or those who live outside the Hierate.

Hard to argue that. I'd agree, the idea of some post birth die off of that magnitude seems highly implausible. That's another side of it that got me wondering what else might explain a post birth ratio change of such magnitude and twin-spirit clicked into my mind. Even it might be a bit to explain such a swing, at least without some rite of passage test like I suggested in the post. Or some other factor. Maybe there's another idea? Maybe even in Ishmael's post above but I'm a bit too... disconnected at the moment to reread it (good ale, good night )

 

[ThunderChilde]

Left field comment.
In several periods of Fuedal Japan's history, a female Samurai might well have been regendered, and made to take a "wife" too. Not because she was a lesbian, but because she had become a "man".

Completely a social dynamic driven by the notion that a woman could not be so skilled and dangerous a Samurai, so she must actually be a man.

I know we are ducking the Lions and Samurai drift, but I had been sitting on that observation since yesterday. It also seems more germaine than Berdache to the discussion.

 

[Whipsnade]

(I'm also wondering if this would be better broken off into it's own "Aslan Biology and Sociology" thread? Though I'm not quite sure where the split would be made, a couple pages back at least?)

Dan,

Let me ditto that suggestion. This definitely needs it's own thread.

As for the split, how about at Ishmael's mega-post? It's relatively succinct considering all the angles it needs to cover and contains nearly everything we're going to be discussing back and forth. Besides, it will make a big splash!

What do you say, Ishmael? Want to cut & paste that whopper and make it Post #1 of a new thread in some other forum?


Regards,
Bill

 

[Whipsnade]

ISTR some species here on Earth that appear to've been down to very low numbers (an analogous state of low genetic diversity) and recovered.

Hans,

Homo sapiens is one of those species.

There's that too.

Evolution works differently on other worlds? That's a very slippery slope, almost a-scientific IMEHO.

Evolution is like gravity, it works the same way everywhere. Random mutations occur, regardless of what genetic coding system a life form may use, a tiny few of those mutations confer an advantage in survival of the individual who holds them, and that surviving individual then has a better chance of 1) having offspring and 2) passing along the mutation.

You're correct in stating that evolution doesn't work towards some "goal" or "perfection". It just works in conjunction with fluctuations in a species' environment. What may be beneficial today may be lethal tomorrow because of environmental change.

Let me suggest The Beak of the Finch by Jonathan Weiner to anyone interested in an accessible and charming description of the process.

Agreed, the text is ambiguous. I will say, however, that until right now, I don't think anyone has ever interpreted it to mean anything other than a 1:3 male:female birth ratio.

Agreed. I'd never viewed the text that way until casting about for an excuse to explain away the 1:3 ratio. And I don't much like the excuse I proposed.

And given that Aslan duels and wars are said to be carefully regulated to reduce their lethality, I don't fancy the death rates you'd need to reduce a 1:1 ratio to a 1:3 ratio.

I don't too and I don't find the idea of a culturally driven male death rate plausible either, even though I suggested a mechanism for it.

We've got to get a handle on that damned 1:3 ratio somehow and Ishmael is our current best hope for giving us one. Hopefully we all can help him some manner.


Regards,
Bill

 

[DonM]

Wow. Two clarifications:

1. I already apologized to Marc for discussing this; not that it needed to remain a secret, but that it wasn't my business revealing it, it was Marc's.

2. Rob and I don't make decisions. Marc makes decisions. Rob and I produce opinions, Marc asks questions, we all do research, etc. Marc then makes decisions.

Guess what: sometimes we miss things. Sometimes, Marc looks at an old idea thats been brought up and tossed in the passed and lets it past. Sometimes none of us realize the significance of a change.

My comments on the art: I didn't like it, and I think the only good artwork for Aslan has the name Keith somewhere in the attribution. And even that artwork gets the dewclaw part wrong. What Marc does with my opinion is his decision.

But can I point out that even if the Aslan book as released has NO changes from the review draft, it will not cause the imminent death of the OTU.

The sad fact is that some of you have already declared that you have no intention of helping fix any problem -- you just want to complain about them. If ever our game could use your creativity and ingenuity, it is now, but you have already decided to walk away. And I have to say this:

If you aren't willing to be part of fixing problems, don't whine about them. There are many legitimate methods for fixing Mongoose Traveller, and you don't want to use any of them. Guess what: posting obnoxious about Matt and Marc isn't one of them. It just annoys Matt (why he continues to come over to CotI and try to be friendly in any fashion escapes me, but I respect his continued efforts) and Marc (who inevitably gets e-mails about it like it's some kind of international crisis), and doesn't contribute at all.

Look over this whole thread -- is there one item of any value that contributes to the game? "Aslan r teh suxxors" would actually be an improvement over some of the comments in here... and you guys are looking at a preview of a tiny part, not the review draft, and Mongoose is still working on the book.

You could have posted something like: Aslan Preview Draft (Matt, Please Consider these Fixes), and then had constructive notes on improving the draft, and references to artwork of your preference. There are some attempts in here that get easily lost in the shuffle (I think Hans tried to post some historical notes).

Had we all been contributing to that thread, Matt would have good, solid reasons for considering your suggestions. As it stands, he'd be completely justified in blowing off the whole thread as unnecessary garbage. And I can't blame Matt for that; that blame rests on the posters of the garbage.

And if Matt can't see the small good items posted because of the garbage, that's also not his fault.

I just find it astonishing that when we really come down to it, the loudest complainers really have no desire to help fix any problems they have. Rather, they just want to drive people off.

And if you just got offended by that paragraph, good. I meant to offend you.

 

[mike wightman]

Daft question then.

Why doesn't Mongoose send stuff out to more people for checking before it's published?

A lot of the 'mistakes' could be tidied up before even reaching the preview stage.

Anyway - back to Aslan again.

AM1 first mentions the 1:3 ratio in the physiology section - implying that it is indeed a birth rate difference. So we are really looking for a mechanism where female foetuses are more common than male.

Is it possible the male Aslan is becoming extinct?

I've read that it is a real possibility that in thousands of years time the human y chromasome could have all but disappeared...

It could be a stress based hormone thing - during times of peace and plenty the female Aslan biology favours female foetuses.

 

[aramis]

Humans do not have a 1:1 birth rate. It's close, but not quite the same.

If Aslan have a similar process, for simplicity we'll use the same labels as humans, X & Y, if the X sperm is more motile and better able to penetrate the egg, and that still results in sufficient males born to reproduce the species, and the species is generally successful, then there is less selection pressure for better sperm, especially when post agricultural selection is for more females to do the agricultural work.

Interesting abstract:
http://www.labmeeting.com/paper/220...nal-serum-human-chorionic-gonadotropin-(mshcg)

 

[Whipsnade]

Why do you have such a strong philosophy that you require this sort of incentive... and at the same time you're obviously very moved by concerns. Not moved enough to try, though? Is there a past experience so strong that all you can do is worry?

Robject,

I've been wrestling for over a day now with how I can explain my position. If you and I sat down with a couple of beers and chatted for a quarter hour or so, I'm sure I could explain myself. Trying to do the same succinctly in a post has got me stumped, but I'm going to try anyway.

First, let me assure everyone that what I'll be writing applies to ME and ME only. This is something I hold MYSELF to and in no way expect it to apply to anyone else. This is a personal belief ONLY and neither a suggestion or demand concerning the behavior of others. I hope everyone understands that.

I have a few hobbies, gaming is one of them. My hobbies are avocations, not a vocation, and I demand of myself that I honor that distinction at all times. I engage in these hobbies because I love them and because I love them my activities within these hobbies are done of my own free will. I perform these activities for free out of my love for the hobbies, out my gratitude for the continuing pleasure the hobbies give me.

This means my activities in these hobbies are my gifts to the hobbies I love. In order for those gifts to truly be gifts they must be free. I simply must give them freely or they don't count. Nothing I produce can be of any tangible worth.

Please believe me, I'm not some "Information Should Be Free" freak, anarchist, or other such goof, but I do demand of myself that a strict accounting be maintained. I wouldn't trust myself otherwise and I have failed in the past, most recently with the T5 playtest.

Any gift I produce for my hobbies must be free. It can't behind a firewall, it can't be inside a book cover, it must be free or it is no longer a gift. When I realized that COTI had mistakenly placed my Four Basic Cons essay in the Moot, I immediately sent another copy to Freelance Traveller. That essay was a gift to Traveller and thus had to be free. That file's location wasn't a mistake on COTI's part, it was a failure on mine instead.

This why I won't, can't, write for JTAS. It's not that JTAS is "bad" or that SJGames is "bad" for charging a fee for JTAS access or that others are "bad" for writing for JTAS. I can't write for JTAS because what I produce must be free for it to remain a gift. Please remember, this only applies to me and to no one else.

This is why I've turned down playtest credits from Avalon Hill, SPI, XTR, and most recently SJGames. It's why I routinely write statements like The author EXPLICITLY renounces any and all copyrights to this material and EXPLICITLY places it the the PUBLIC DOMAIN. in the materials I post. It's why I routinely tell people to "fold, spindle, and multilate" the ideas I share. It's why I withdrew so abruptly from the T5 playtest too.

When Mr. Miller mailed me a few T5 handouts I was ashamed. No, not ashamed exactly. That's not strong enough. Mortified would be a better word. When I received those handouts I realized that I'd just charged Mr. Miller for what should have been a gift. I abused the playtest, I demeaned what should have been a freely offered gift. People may laugh and I'll understand if they do, but I was actually heartsick over this. I certainly didn't intend to join the T5 playtest in order to grub about after free stuff, but that is what happened anyway. I failed, utterly failed, and I was disgusted with myself for weeks.

I wouldn't be human if I didn't split hairs on this position, if I didn't bend it occasionally. I can't write for JTAS for example, but I've helped many others with dozens of JTAS articles. I explain that to myself by saying I'm just handling jots and tittles, the real material is work of someone else and not a gift from me. That's an excuse more than an explanation, but it's one I can live with.

All this nonsense means I can't work for Mongoose. I can't write something they will sell. I can't charge Mongoose for what is meant to be a gift. What I can do is something I've suggested Mongoose should consider for months now, provide submissions to a freely available errata system similar to that found at SJGames.

I hope this explains my silly beliefs well enough to answer your questions. It's hard to explain it all in text form. If we'd talked, I feel certain that you'd have understood where I was coming from within a few minutes.


Regards,
Bill

 

[MongooseFordy]

Daft question then.

Why doesn't Mongoose send stuff out to more people for checking before it's published?

A lot of the 'mistakes' could be tidied up before even reaching the preview stage.

I put out an open call for playtesters for all Mongoose lines a few months ago on our boards. Every Traveller product goes to two or three playtest groups, plus seeing approval from Marc Miller and his team of reviewers.

Nothing was posted here at the time because I wasn't aware of this board.

I might come to regret this, but if anyone wishes to be put on the playtest list (we pay in product) then feel free to PM me.

 

[mike wightman]

I find myself in full agreement with you Bill.

Virtually everything I have ever written for Traveller has been posted for free on these boards in the hope that people will find some of it useful.

I have taken part in playtests and the like but always freely. I choose to spend my hobby time doing stuff like this because it is fun.

 

[Ishmael]

What do you say, Ishmael? Want to cut & paste that whopper and make it Post #1 of a new thread in some other forum?

Done
I put it in the IMTU forum so there is no confusing it with OTU

I'll put up links there to things that go into more detail about sex ratios and allee effects later.
I'll see if I can find a detailed post about panthera leo (krugeri, iirc ) as a baseline so references to real-life lions make more sense

if I ever get around to making a spreadsheet modeling this, I'll post it too.

oh yeah...disclaimer for anything I post
If I post it, its for the community ( CC-sa-by )
If I post it, its ATU stuff only
I also make no guarantees as to how well my stuff stands up to closer scrutiny... use it at your own risk
hmmmmmm the agriculture/diet effects would be accounted for by helping to quantify 'carrying capacity', eh?
but I'm basically lazy......

 

[Psion]

Humans do not have a 1:1 birth rate. It's close, but not quite the same.

If Aslan have a similar process, for simplicity we'll use the same labels as humans, X & Y, if the X sperm is more motile and better able to penetrate the egg, and that still results in sufficient males born to reproduce the species, and the species is generally successful, then there is less selection pressure for better sperm, especially when post agricultural selection is for more females to do the agricultural work.

Here's a thought (which I like and may use, but maybe it's just me). Recall that Aslan are not descended from Earth mammals (possible misconception in Scouts notwithstanding). Perhaps Aslan gender is not fixed at birth at all, but is something that is undetermined until sexual maturity. That would add a whole new spin to the idea of Berdache.

Indeed, if Aslan gender is something that can be influenced by social pressures, then perhaps gender ratios have changed overtime as technological advances bring social change. Perhaps in primitive tribal times, gender ratios were 1:1, but population pressures, limits on available land to own, and increased need for female role (which included technicians) caused a shift in gender ratios.

 

[Supplement Four]

You could have posted something like: Aslan Preview Draft (Matt, Please Consider these Fixes)...

It's hard to be inspired to help improve MGT when the game continues to go in the direction it is going. It's like a hard core rock producer being asked his opinion on a couple of guitar riffs for a disco song. The rock producer pulls his hair out at hearing Stairway To Heaven, Bad To The Bone, and Running With The Devil...disco style. The producer just wishes the disco would be changed back to rock.

But, disco is "in". It's selling. So, the rock producer is SOL.

And if you just got offended by that paragraph, good. I meant to offend you.

I'm assuming that you're not using the universal "you" here and speaking directly to me since you responded to my post.

I'm not offended at all, and it wasn't until I got to this last line that I realized you've got some anger behind your words.

Tell ya what, pal, that's a direct attack on me you just made. If I wasn't who I was, I'd report your butt in the blink of an eye.

You're supposed to be the "other moderator", and this type of thing is exactly what I meant when I spoke out against you as being that third moderator. You don't have the temperment for it.