Dealing with Lockdown

[Xerxeskingofking]

i'm told by the medics that during a hypothetical mass causality event, where the wounded significantly outnumber the treatment ability (normally talked about during a major offensive, or something like "the fuel dump just blew up"), they adjust their normal 3 tier triage scale (T3,T2,T1, which, very roughly, are "walking wounded", "needs hospitalisation" and " imminently life threatening" respectively) with a 4th category, historically called "expectant", which basically is them deciding the casualty isn't saveable, and they are put in a corner with some pain meds until they die.

Didn't come to that, thank heavens, but it's interesting that it was under consideration as a contingency and it just reinforces mostly that the fire department isn't there to save your house, rather it's there to save everyone else's.

lives. they are there to save lives.

Property is secondary, and can be saved or sacrificed as needed, in order to save the most lives possible. Hence, the existence of the fire axe, to break property to save people.

 

[BackworldTraveller]

When London burned (1666), the nearby locals tried to make firebreaks - but the owners of the houses being broken fought the firefighters until the King made it official. Strangely, fighting the firefighters didn't save the houses!

 

[McPerth]

In Spain there's the set phrase idea de bombero (firefighter's idea) to refer to something quie radical or strange. It is said to come from the measures firefighters have sometimes to take to achieve their goals.

Basically, as Xerxes has told, it's a triage situation, where you have to guess how to minimeze the damages, as you cannot avoid them all.

This is also the lockout goal, and, as always in triage situations, the results can only be seen aftermath, the decision makers having to live with their choices, for good or bad...

 

[aramis]

That's not the reason.

The firefighters couldn't fight the fire in or around the police station because of all of the ordnance in a typical downtown police station.

Since the firefighters couldn't risk their own lives the fires just had to burn.

Gun Stores and Police Stations are both "external fight only" situations for that very reason, at least for Anch.orage FD. Same with Chemical Supply Houses. (I was an AFD Explorer in HS.)

You do your best to keep the neighboring buildings from igniting... but many districts don't have adequate separation to allow for that.

No matter the building, if there's anything exploding, you back out.

 

[Condottiere]

Opportunity cost.

You have to make judgement calls during crisis; in theory, insurance should cover lost property value.

Emergency services are community focused, in that as a collective we fund them; if crises can be controlled and contained, they can focus on individual needs.

 

[Timerover51]

Opportunity cost.

You have to make judgement calls during crisis; in theory, insurance should cover lost property value.

Emergency services are community focused, in that as a collective we fund them; if crises can be controlled and contained, they can focus on individual needs.

It depends on the store's insurance policy. Then the owners have to make the choice of do they rebuild at that location, or take the insurance settlement and build elsewhere, or simply take the insurance settlement and elect not to rebuild.

Secondly, how much of the property that is inside the building covered by insurance. If the building was looted prior to burning, or simply looted, the insurance may not cover the losses. Some of the stores were clearly looted prior to the fires.

 

[Straybow]

1918 Spanish Flu response came close. Admittedly, it wasn't nationwide, but in the places it was in place, when it was in place, it worked. When the lockdowns were lifted, it came back. See the experience of St. Louis vs. Philadelphia, and the 3rd wave in St. Louis for an example.

Yes, Philly's crowded parade was stupid. Right before the start of the normal flu season, I would add. But in 99% of American cities that didn't have a parade like Philly, they didn't suffer like Philly. Can't use Philly as a stand in for "normal business," much less normal business with rational precautions.

I found some data comparing Missouri to Kansas, and the ratio of normal flu season deaths to 1918-19 were almost indistinguishable between the states. St Louis' 772k was over 20% of the state population, so the death rate that fall can't have been drastically less than other cities in the region.

Most cities closed theaters and other large gatherings. St Louis was unusual in closing businesses. But note that up through WW1 the country was still largely rural and agricultural. The effect of shutting down city businesses would be less drastic to overall economy. People could do business in surrounding towns, or even move in with relatives outside the city, like folks used to do during plagues. That's different from shutting down entire states.

But wow, CA was doing so amazingly well wasn't it, just a few posts back?

Yes, and still is despite the huge amount of traffic with China in the early phase of CV-19. 30% of US CV-19 deaths in NYC, another 30% within Acela corridor outside NYC, and 4% in CA with population of comparable size to the entire Acela corridor. It may be that the asymptomatic spread in CA is higher than NYC.

I read somewhere that a genetic study of the virus strains shows that most of the outbreaks in cities of US and Europe may have come through NYC. I am dubious.

 

[Straybow]

a) How do you know that they aren't actually sick if they aren't tested?
b) One person who is invisibly sick can infect how many before someone twigs?
c) How many acquaintances have to die before you stop viewing "I didn't know I would kill you" as less "oops" and more "negligent homicide"? My family already has members who have had this, and we have various people in the family wouldn't survive getting it.
d) The largest transmission issue here has the people who weren't visibly sick and moved between multiple vulnerable people.
e) 100 years of anti-biotics and miracle surgery seem to have made us forget the historical impact of illness on every day life.

a) How do YOU know if you're sick? Symptoms.
b) "Invisibly sick" isn't a thing. It is called "asymptomatic infection," which means infected but not sick. Still no solid research on asymptomatic transmission rates.
c.1) I believe my friends had CV-19 symptoms two weeks after contact with Chinese visitors in January, and my family had milder symptoms about two weeks following that; tested negative for flu and strep (I had a runny nose and wasn't tested). This was after our normal winter bugs had come and gone. We made the likely connection after the fact.
c.2) I get in the car and drive despite a far more provable relationship between miles driven and vehicular fatalities. I even take my precious wife and children with me.Why am I not paralyzed with fear?
d) The solution is to protect vulnerable people, not to shut down commerce among generally non-vulnerable people.
e) The latest CDC figures show a likely fatality rate of only 0.4%, about 4x that of flu, but still negligible death rate below age 50. As serology studies continue, more mild cases will be included and the death rate will go down.

 

[Grav_Moped]

"Protect vulnerable people."

Sounds easy. It's not.

Obvious case: nursing homes.
1. Staff isn't paid well enough to keep from needing to work shifts at other facilities, so they're vectors. Where does the money to fix that come from?
2. Staff has families. Including children who would be back in school, presenting massive exposure potential.

Second obvious case: Schools. Are we to forcibly retire any teacher or administrator over 50 years old for their own safety? If so, who pays for their retirement? And who pays for training their replacements?

And then you get into who's vulnerable. Elderly, asthmatic, high blood pressure or history of cardiovascular issues, diabetic, immune-compromised.... Are these going to be legal disabilities (with government support) until we get a vaccine, or are they just going to have to take their chances in the workforce?

Other situations are easier, like meat-packing plants or ag workers. Just don't report the illnesses and nobody important will notice or care. No news, no problem.

 

[G. Kashkanun Anderson]

That's not the reason.

The firefighters couldn't fight the fire in or around the police station because of all of the ordnance in a typical downtown police station.

Since the firefighters couldn't risk their own lives the fires just had to burn.

That was Minneapolis. I’m across the river, in Saint Paul. We didn’t join the party until last night, two days after Minneapolis hit the fan.

The building I’m talking about housed a NAPA Auto Parts store and a very nice looking Ethiopian restaurant. At the time local FD abandoned the fight (around 1 AM), there were close to a dozen other commercial buildings on fire at the same time within a mile or so of it, one of which was an entire strip mall which, if left unchecked, could have jumped over to Allianz Field, our brand new, $200 million Major League Soccer stadium right next door.

There is a police precinct in the middle of all that confusion, but it was largely untouched. It’s also right next to the local Target, which is probably why the police were able to almost instantaneously shut down any attempts at looting it.

I went out and took a survey the next morning. At least nine of those burned buildings are total losses, including the strip mall. Several are reduced to twisted rubble. The closest was just two blocks from my house.

One irony: the entire ‘superblock’ the stadium sits on is set for complete demolition and redevelopment, courtesy of the billionaire owner of the soccer team. The only thing holding it back were all the multiyear leases held by the businesses on the site, of which the strip mall was a major portion. With the shops destroyed, the team can just bulldoze it ad librum and build all the upscale bars, shops, promenades and hotels that their site plan calls for.

 

[Condottiere]

Creative destruction.

 

[aramis]

If so, who pays for their retirement?

That varies widely. Many districts have gone for the 401(k) only, so as to reduce ongoing commitments

And who pays for training their replacements?

The incoming teachers, or, if said teacher is former military, the VA - the training is a bachelor's hard minimum, and usually, also a masters degree. (Only one state didn't require a masters for newly licensed teachers last I checked, which was 2016... and that was Louisiana, who requires a Bachelors degree plus certain courses.)

Most states have lesser requirements for certain specialist teachers: VocTec, JROTC, and Music are often not required to have a standard cert, and usually require a degree in field and a Bachelors.

Many Vocational instructors have a BA in ed, and an AAS or ADT associates in field. Aviation Maintenance Technology instructors usually have a Bachelor's and their AI and A&P FAA credential, and not uncommonly also the jet engines endorsement.

Several states have a separate licensure for school nurses. Alaska requires school nurses (and the one DO who was functioning as a school nurse) to be licensed by the state Dept of education, but they're not required to be licensed by the state dept of Occupational Licensing nor the Medical Board (which operates through the Dept. of Occ. Licensing). One school nurse in Anchorage lost her nursing license for cause, but continues as a school nurse, as the Dept of Ed apparently never got the complaint. (Reasons for her loss of Nursing Occupational License are unclear.)

 

[aramis]

Some Actual Data!

https://thorax.bmj.com/content/early/2020/05/27/thoraxjnl-2020-215091.full
British Medical Journal article about COVID-19 demographic aboard a cruise ship.

 

[Timerover51]

"Protect vulnerable people."

Second obvious case: Schools. Are we to forcibly retire any teacher or administrator over 50 years old for their own safety?

I doubt if any will be forcibly retired in Illinois, as then the age discrimination lawsuits will start to fly. Those with 25 to 30 years in taking retirement might be more likely. Thirty years is full retirement benefits in Illinois for school personnel.

If so, who pays for their retirement? And who pays for training their replacements?

In Illinois, the taxpayers are on the hook for just about all retirement payments for public employees, as their contributions are pretty minimal. Per the Illinois Constitution, no pension benefits can ever be reduced, although the recently hired are under a different calculation for benefits. Take a look at Illinois unfunded pension total of supposedly $137 Billion, more realistic estimates put it at over $200 Billion. Then there is the City of Chicago on top of that, with unfunded teacher retirement benefits, without adding all of the other public employees.

As for replacements, Illinois has a very hard time getting teachers hired, as people would much rather leave the state. Do not even mention Chicago.

And then you get into who's vulnerable. Elderly, asthmatic, high blood pressure or history of cardiovascular issues, diabetic, immune-compromised.... Are these going to be legal disabilities (with government support) until we get a vaccine, or are they just going to have to take their chances in the workforce?

That will be fairly unlikely, as that would so totally blow up the Social Security Disability Fund, which is already underfunded, as to require massive payroll tax hikes. As for a vaccine, the safest thing to do is assume there will not be one, and then be pleasantly surprised.

By the way, the plague outbreak in London in 1665 left somewhere between one-sixth to one-seventh of the population, which was about a half-million at the time, dead. London and England survived. This current virus does not come near to approaching the lethality of many earlier plagues. People are demanding a risk-free society, and that will not happen.

 

[Straybow]

"Protect vulnerable people."

Sounds easy. It's not.

Obvious case: nursing homes.
1. Staff isn't paid well enough to keep from needing to work shifts at other facilities, so they're vectors. Where does the money to fix that come from?
2. Staff has families. Including children who would be back in school, presenting massive exposure potential.

1) As long as they have clean scrubs at each workplace, no problem. 2) Few children get sick, and transmission from minors to adults seems to be rare enough that there aren't any known cases (not that all cases are of known origin). The transmission from asymptomatic cases in general is poorly understood.

Second obvious case: Schools. Are we to forcibly retire any teacher or administrator over 50 years old for their own safety? If so, who pays for their retirement? And who pays for training their replacements?

Same as 2) above. Any staff of vulnerable age and condition should wear protection and limit exposure. Have a separate lounge/lunch room. Students who are sick stay home. It has worked in Sweden. If someone feels the risks are to great, any decision to change careers is met with the same problem.

And then you get into who's vulnerable. Elderly, asthmatic, high blood pressure or history of cardiovascular issues, diabetic, immune-compromised.... Are these going to be legal disabilities (with government support) until we get a vaccine, or are they just going to have to take their chances in the workforce?

According to Lancet, asthma is not a co-morbidity indicator. Asthma is actually underrepresented among fatalities. More importantly, none of these conditions seem to predispose the patients to contract CV-19. Only that if contracted the chance of hospitalization and death goes up.

People with those health conditions will have to take their chances. It's something called "life." They are also more likely to die from flu, strep, staph, or even common colds. CV-19 is not a special case that defies pathology. Anyone can become a germaphobic hermit, but neither the government nor fellow citizens are obligated to support them financially.

Other situations are easier, like meat-packing plants or ag workers. Just don't report the illnesses and nobody important will notice or care. No news, no problem.

As far as anybody can tell, it isn't food-borne. If bat sales in China are the origin (call me skeptical), it is from bat saliva and droppings, not the meat.

Anybody in any field of work can catch it, but outdoor conditions (much of agriculture) are detrimental to the virus. UV in sunlight destroys it in minutes where it might otherwise persist for hours. Vitamin D also appears to help the body resist infection.

 

[Condottiere]

On the bright side, the Black Death brought increased liberty and wage increases in it's wake for the Medievals; probably was one of the major factors that cost the English crown it's French holdings.

However, similar plagues weakened the Roman Empire, and was a major factor in Volkerwanderung.

The problem with the current Virus is it's infectious, combined with densely packed populations, and an unwary electorate.

Locally, very few are walking around with masks, but the authorities acted decisively, and almost every store took minimal precautions, with plastic barriers between cashiers and customers (which one article called transparent gold), hand sanitizers, and in one instance, disposable plastic gloves. Add to that respect for personal space (not always followed between close acquaintances). Measures can be ramped up or down, depending on subsequent infection rates.

We don't know if the Virus triggers some form of secondary reactions from exposed people, specifically children.

The issue seems less than the effect of the Virus on the electorate, and more of the authorities having a plan in place when a pandemic appears, and being willing to act decisively.

 

[flykiller]

The issue seems less than the effect of the Virus on the electorate, and more of the authorities having a plan in place when a pandemic appears, and being willing to act decisively.

admirably accurate. the "plan" has had more effect than the virus - apparently gdp contracted .4 this month.

 

[Grav_Moped]

1) As long as they have clean scrubs at each workplace, no problem. 2) Few children get sick, and transmission from minors to adults seems to be rare enough that there aren't any known cases (not that all cases are of known origin). The transmission from asymptomatic cases in general is poorly understood.

Apparently South Korea disagrees with this. They shut their schools back down again (BBC) after a spike in cases. To be clear,the outbreak wasn't from schools as such, but they didn't think it would be safe with an ongoing outbreak.

Same as 2) above. Any staff of vulnerable age and condition should wear protection and limit exposure. Have a separate lounge/lunch room. Students who are sick stay home. It has worked in Sweden. If someone feels the risks are to great, any decision to change careers is met with the same problem.
According to Lancet, asthma is not a co-morbidity indicator. Asthma is actually underrepresented among fatalities. More importantly, none of these conditions seem to predispose the patients to contract CV-19. Only that if contracted the chance of hospitalization and death goes up.

So, they need to be protected from exposure.

People with those health conditions will have to take their chances. It's something called "life." They are also more likely to die from flu, strep, staph, or even common colds. CV-19 is not a special case that defies pathology.

Except they're 4 to 6 times more likely to die if they get CoVID-19 than if they get the flu. This is not normal.

Anyone can become a germaphobic hermit, but neither the government nor fellow citizens are obligated to support them financially.

So, don't protect the vulnerable if it costs money? Ok.

As far as anybody can tell, it isn't food-borne. If bat sales in China are the origin (call me skeptical), it is from bat saliva and droppings, not the meat.

Not disagreeing with you on that. It's the workers that are the vectors.

Anybody in any field of work can catch it, but outdoor conditions (much of agriculture) are detrimental to the virus. UV in sunlight destroys it in minutes where it might otherwise persist for hours. Vitamin D also appears to help the body resist infection.

Climate doesn't do it; look at what's happening in low-latitude Brazil. And the risk for ag workers isn't necessarily the fields, it's the crowded vans that take them there, and the crowded slums they're provided as living quarters.

"One farm in Tennessee distributed Covid-19 tests to all of its workers after an employee came down with the virus. It turned out that every single one of its roughly 200 employees had been infected." (Bloomberg.com)

 

[Grav_Moped]

admirably accurate. the "plan" has had more effect than the virus - apparently gdp contracted .4 this month.

Some of that was inevitable. Sweden's central bank is forecasting a 7-10% hit to GDP (Financial Times) this year, despite their laissez faire policies.

 

[Xerxeskingofking]

a significant economic effect was inevitable, and expected. People just aren't working or shopping, either because they are too sick, or too scared.

As far as anybody can tell, it isn't food-borne. If bat sales in China are the origin (call me skeptical), it is from bat saliva and droppings, not the meat.

I thought it was a settled question. that the virus was spread form live animals being kept in the Wuhan animal market to human staff their, then out to others.

apparently, the virus shows genetic markers associated with bats , but also with Pangolins, also sold for food at the same market. it appears that the virus must have jumped between those two species at some point before it jumped to humans.

The vector risk that Grav Moped is on about is more that people working these jobs, often on low wages who might be in a position where they are sick or think they might be sick, but unable to not go into work because they got bills to pay and no savings to live off instead, especially if their is no debt relief or similar social welfare support available (for example, the Employment Retention Scheme or the mortgage holiday, both implemented in the UK).

this isn't a risk unique to the meat packing industry, obviously, it just happened to be spoken about in that context.


the wider point is that protecting the vunerable "shielded" people requires significant sacrifice, or at least buy-in and compliance, form everyone in order to work.



on a different note, the UK have been publishing some the slides they use for their daily updates (link is to Gov.uk).

buried in their, on the slides for the 26th May, they have a slide (number 6 of 8) which shows the difference between suspected and confirmed COVID deaths in the UK. These "unconfirmed" deaths (where covid is mentioned on the death certificate but no test was run to confirm it) run at about 50% extra on top of the confirmed deaths.

Its not a perfect measure but its about the only data I have seen for how many deaths their might be "on top" of the official numbers. I have a sneaking suspicion that one of the reasons the UK has such bad death rates is that its just being more open with the data its collecting and is being very thorough in collecting it. I don't know what the rules are for deaths to "count" in many countries, but im willing to bet some countries (not naming any) have significantly more deaths than their "official" counts due to gaps in reporting, and that this is going to be a big issue going forward as virus penetrates deeper into Africa and the poorer parts of south America, where a lot of people are going to die of this virus that wont be counted or reported due to the inability of the healthcare systems in those countries to test cases in the volume required.