Dealing with Lockdown
- Thread starter Timerover51
- Start date
Straybow
SOC-14 1K
That's moving the goalposts, IMO. Sure, test when people come to the doctor or hospital as part of a treatment plan. Then the doc can say, "Don't worry, you have the flu which has only killed 40k people instead of 90k."
The idea that testing will solve the problem is also a fool's errand. If you tested me yesterday, it means almost nothing today.
Can you tell me why Belgium has almost double the deaths per million of their neighbors in France, more than double Netherlands, four times that of Luxembourg, and over EIGHT TIMES the deaths per million of neighboring Germany? Nope, nobody can. They share borders, had free movement over those borders up until quarantines were ordered, have similar geography (at least for nearby regions of France and Germany) and urban density. They had similar quarantine rules, too. Testing isn't going to tell you.
Can testing explain why Sweden, famous for flouting the expert advise and restricting only large gatherings (was it 500?), has deaths per million lower than France, UK, Italy, Spain (which may have had the strictest quarantine measures of all), and Belgium and only 30% higher than USA?
California probably had far more passengers from China in December and January than any of those countries, and yet California has only 81 deaths per million, lower than every country in western Europe except Austria.
Testing isn't about you (mostly).
Testing you yesterday might not even have meant anything yesterday, either. Unless you've been literally isolated for a few days beforehand, you might be infected but not yet have a detectable virus load. Or you might have gotten a false negative -- it happens.
What testing does mean is that if you pop positive, you need to be quarantined and your contacts traced to find others who need to be quarantined. Repeat until you find all the positives or hit dead ends. Keep at it long enough and you might be able to control things -- but that takes testing and manpower and money and... well, maybe that's not an option. [IMPLICIT POLITICAL CONTENT REDACTED]
Sure. They count any death that even remotely could have been from SARS-CoV-2 as a CoVID-19 death. Other places are less strict about it (die with all the symptoms, but never got tested? Not the 'rona, sorry. Heart attack or stroke from CoVID-19 aftereffects? Not 'rona either. Not a state resident? Not our business, maybe your home state will report it eventually. And so on...).
Italy got slammed from Chinese tourists before they knew what hit them. The UK was actively trying to expose everyone (herd immunity) until they realized how many corpses that meant. I already discussed Belgium.
The entry point from China was mostly San Francisco, which locked down the entire Bay Area hard and fast once they knew what was happening. They know from pandemics (AIDS...). Those most likely to have been exposed were also those with the resources to self-isolate by working from home and shopping online. And there's a LOT of California that has nothing to do with SF -- or Los Angeles (particularly the high-end areas and around LAX) for that matter -- and wouldn't be in contact with China travelers or those they encountered.
Last edited:
Condottiere
SOC-14 5K
I hear, however that's interpreted, that human malware is spreading faster in American rural communities with "aging populations" than urban ones.
Assuming local statistics are accurate, new detected infections are counted in the low double digits, specifically ten more than yesterday, though I suspect that could be due to the weekend, but the steady decline has been the overall trend.
June eighth is supposed normalization; end August, gatherings for more than a thousand people.
Checking on flight availability, prices look okay, bring your own mask, protocol for lining up on the toilet run, and being provided with a snack bag for short haul flights.
Assuming local statistics are accurate, new detected infections are counted in the low double digits, specifically ten more than yesterday, though I suspect that could be due to the weekend, but the steady decline has been the overall trend.
June eighth is supposed normalization; end August, gatherings for more than a thousand people.
Checking on flight availability, prices look okay, bring your own mask, protocol for lining up on the toilet run, and being provided with a snack bag for short haul flights.
Straybow
SOC-14 1K
No, nobody needs to be tested unless they're actually sick. Even if you can trace contacts it may not show up if you test too early in incubation. Maybe 14 days after contact, when incubation is almost guaranteed complete, a test might be useful. It's pointless to test the general population, a complete waste of time and resources, or worse yet, a tool for manipulation.
In other words, reporting is not reliable and everyone keeps reporting as though. No, UK dropped their herd immunity approach because France insisted they would close Calais to Brits if UK didn't adopt tighter restrictions.
Haha, no. AIDS was never a pandemic. It does not spread by casual contact, nor were any restrictions placed on the general public. This shelter-in-place thing is entirely new. It has never been done even for the plague.
While SF Bay area had about 5000 arrivals/day from China, LA had about 8000/day. Yet LA has significantly more cases/deaths per 100k. I don't think reporting for LA is that different from reporting in other counties.
Test, retest after 4 days. Should catch most cases -- some immediately, some after incubation. By 14 days, the cases that are symptomatic will have manifested symptoms...
Which means everyone else is undercounting (we already know this from excess deaths year-over-year). Doesn't help your case.
That too.
Granted. But it was a remarkably persistent (still is, but treatable) epidemic, and it's a close-to-home demonstration of what happens when you ignore rapidly spreading disease.
1918 Spanish Flu response came close. Admittedly, it wasn't nationwide, but in the places it was in place, when it was in place, it worked. When the lockdowns were lifted, it came back. See the experience of St. Louis vs. Philadelphia, and the 3rd wave in St. Louis for an example.
But wow, CA was doing so amazingly well wasn't it, just a few posts back?
BackworldTraveller
SOC-13
a) How do you know that they aren't actually sick if they aren't tested?
b) One person who is invisibly sick can infect how many before someone twigs?
c) How many acquaintances have to die before you stop viewing "I didn't know I would kill you" as less "oops" and more "negligent homicide"? My family already has members who have had this, and we have various people in the family wouldn't survive getting it.
d) The largest transmission issue here has the people who weren't visibly sick and moved between multiple vulnerable people.
e) 100 years of anti-biotics and miracle surgery seem to have made us forget the historical impact of illness on every day life.
Or a full bubble helmet
Condottiere
SOC-14 5K
Timerover51
SOC-14 5K
My wife and I drove up to Lake Geneva, Wisconsin today, to have dinner at one of our favorite restaurants. It was a bit crowded when we got there, so while my wife explored some of her favorite shops, I sat down on a bench and people-watched.
As an estimate, maybe one in twenty to twenty-five people wore masks.
It should be noted that you cannot wear a mask and eat an ice cream cone.
Quite a few of the older people were not wearing masks.
Lots of what appeared to be grandparents were pushing buggies with grandkids in them. None of them were wearing masks.
Note, smoking and masks appear to be antithetical.
There were a lot, and I do mean a LOT of Illinois license plates on cars that were parked and also those looking for a parking place.
Social Distancing? What is that?
Lines for seats at the restaurants, not just the one we were hoping to eat at, were shoulder to shoulder, and pretty long. Contract tracing would be totally useless.
When we did get seated, (the manager bumped us in line because of my crutches), some of the waitresses had masks. The majority of the waiters did not. Interesting. The restaurant did its best to spread out seating, but there were a lot of customers. I suspect that the restricted seating is not going to last many more weekends. Lake Geneva is a tourist town.
My wife had her mask with her and put it on if required by a store. Some stores were simply limited the number of customers inside.
Me, I did not wear a mask. It should be noted that I am 68, and do have an underlying medical condition, which would have little if anything to do with the virus. My glasses fog up when wearing a mask, and if you are on crutches, you do need to see where you are placing the crutches. I would not want to break someone's foot.
Note: I did take chloroquine as a malarial preventative while in the Solomon Islands in the South Pacific in 2002, along with most of Bob Ballard's crew. I would have no problem asking for it again if by some chance I do pick up the virus.
It was a nice day, and really nice to see all of the people enjoying the beach and the nice day to get out.
As an estimate, maybe one in twenty to twenty-five people wore masks.
It should be noted that you cannot wear a mask and eat an ice cream cone.
Quite a few of the older people were not wearing masks.
Lots of what appeared to be grandparents were pushing buggies with grandkids in them. None of them were wearing masks.
Note, smoking and masks appear to be antithetical.
There were a lot, and I do mean a LOT of Illinois license plates on cars that were parked and also those looking for a parking place.
Social Distancing? What is that?
Lines for seats at the restaurants, not just the one we were hoping to eat at, were shoulder to shoulder, and pretty long. Contract tracing would be totally useless.
When we did get seated, (the manager bumped us in line because of my crutches), some of the waitresses had masks. The majority of the waiters did not. Interesting. The restaurant did its best to spread out seating, but there were a lot of customers. I suspect that the restricted seating is not going to last many more weekends. Lake Geneva is a tourist town.
My wife had her mask with her and put it on if required by a store. Some stores were simply limited the number of customers inside.
Me, I did not wear a mask. It should be noted that I am 68, and do have an underlying medical condition, which would have little if anything to do with the virus. My glasses fog up when wearing a mask, and if you are on crutches, you do need to see where you are placing the crutches. I would not want to break someone's foot.
Note: I did take chloroquine as a malarial preventative while in the Solomon Islands in the South Pacific in 2002, along with most of Bob Ballard's crew. I would have no problem asking for it again if by some chance I do pick up the virus.
It was a nice day, and really nice to see all of the people enjoying the beach and the nice day to get out.
A somewhat inelegant solution for glasses fogging while wearing a mask:
- Wear mask over mouth, but not nose.
- Use a nose-clip of the sort used by swimmers so you can't breathe through your nose.
I said it was inelegant.
- Wear mask over mouth, but not nose.
- Use a nose-clip of the sort used by swimmers so you can't breathe through your nose.
I said it was inelegant.
BackworldTraveller
SOC-13
By contrast, my daughter was speaking to by someone who has just had her child die of this; another daughter's step-children have had it. The local Hospital was full to overflowing - but is now less so - but if anyone gets anything else (including a number of my friends and family) they cannot get the normal level of service because of the potential fatality of their stay in Hospital or their post-hospital recuperation. The UK apparently has a very different take on the level of corporate responsibility required by the individual to that in some of the US. The level of "Tut Tut"ing here, aimed at larger gatherings and those who break lockdown guidelines is quite high.
On the lighter side...Plenty of time for Traveller!
Here in New Orleans, the initiation and course of Phase 1 seems to be equated with pre-virus times, at least on the scale of day-to-day errands. I would estimate ~30% mask wearers and social distancing is respected but often neglected. But restaurants here are far, far more serious about masks and social distancing than TR51's Lake Geneva experience. We take great pride in our cuisine, after all, and many of our best restaurants are historic businesses in historic buildings. No one here wants that legacy to be threatened so we are happy to muddle thru with masks and limited seating, even at the little po'boy shop down the street.
We're quite troubled though, and exasperated. Our neighboring states have rushed to re-open and are now experiencing spikes, potentially undoing the progress we've made. Back in early March Texas for instance instituted a mandatory 2 week quarantine for people from Louisiana, as we were the "Mardi Gras hotspot." Many here considered that illegal but for the most part we followed our state and local guidelines and hunkered down. Now that we've hopefully recovered and are steadily moving forward, Texas is a hot spot that threatens our momentum, as their own efforts to curb the spread were apparently not as effective. We are a consummate tourist town and were looking forward to start slowly welcoming visitors again, but alas, it will now be even longer before we can.
We are scheduled to move into Phase 2 at the end of the month, which I suspect will basically be life back to normal except for gradually decreasing health regulations on businesses such as restaurants and salons and large groups of people still forbidden. Schools, however, will likely remain closed through the end of the year.
My own industry is still considered Phase 4, late July or early August before our work is deemed safe. *le sigh*
We're quite troubled though, and exasperated. Our neighboring states have rushed to re-open and are now experiencing spikes, potentially undoing the progress we've made. Back in early March Texas for instance instituted a mandatory 2 week quarantine for people from Louisiana, as we were the "Mardi Gras hotspot." Many here considered that illegal but for the most part we followed our state and local guidelines and hunkered down. Now that we've hopefully recovered and are steadily moving forward, Texas is a hot spot that threatens our momentum, as their own efforts to curb the spread were apparently not as effective. We are a consummate tourist town and were looking forward to start slowly welcoming visitors again, but alas, it will now be even longer before we can.
We are scheduled to move into Phase 2 at the end of the month, which I suspect will basically be life back to normal except for gradually decreasing health regulations on businesses such as restaurants and salons and large groups of people still forbidden. Schools, however, will likely remain closed through the end of the year.
My own industry is still considered Phase 4, late July or early August before our work is deemed safe. *le sigh*
Timerover51
SOC-14 5K
My church is opening on Sunday for in-sanctuary worship. This is very good news.
My wife and I will be in attendance.
My wife and I will be in attendance.
Timerover51
SOC-14 5K
Even more good news. All churches in Illinois may now open while observing the Center for Disease Control guidelines.
G. Kashkanun Anderson
SOC-13
Well, I'm in a different kind of lockdown tonight. My house is one block off of a major commercial avenue in the Twin Cities, and every business on the street for a stretch of about two miles around me is either looted or on fire. Or both.
Mostly just looted, thank God. But a lot of businesses I've known and shopped at for years are charred hulks as of tonight.
While avoiding the politics of it, I just want to comment how weird it is to be in the heart of a major city and see buildings burn to the ground around you because there are not enough firefighting assets to handle them all, and so some must be triaged.
Mostly just looted, thank God. But a lot of businesses I've known and shopped at for years are charred hulks as of tonight.
While avoiding the politics of it, I just want to comment how weird it is to be in the heart of a major city and see buildings burn to the ground around you because there are not enough firefighting assets to handle them all, and so some must be triaged.
mike wightman
SOC-14 10K
That's not the reason.
The firefighters couldn't fight the fire in or around the police station because of all of the ordnance in a typical downtown police station.
Since the firefighters couldn't risk their own lives the fires just had to burn.
The firefighters couldn't fight the fire in or around the police station because of all of the ordnance in a typical downtown police station.
Since the firefighters couldn't risk their own lives the fires just had to burn.
Back when LA erupted, I was on the wrong side of the Troubles at a work site, but I was able to spend the night at a friend that was local so I didn't have to try to make my way across or around it to get home.
There was an interesting anecdote about this, under a different context, up in Quebec, I think.
Simply, they had a truly horrible ice storm that just shut down everything to the point that they had to considered the idea of if any large fire broke out, that they would need to make fire breaks vs actually directly fighting the fires.
And by "fire breaks" they meant essentially destroying neighboring houses to contain the fires.
Didn't come to that, thank heavens, but it's interesting that it was under consideration as a contingency and it just reinforces mostly that the fire department isn't there to save your house, rather it's there to save everyone else's.
