Economic potential of a system and cargo

[Enoki]

The system below rates worlds on their economic potential. This is different from their actual economic output or input. It is an indication of the world’s ability to import and export goods, and some indication of the strength of the local economy.
What it does not do is measure the world’s actual economic progress. This is dependent on not just the world itself, but the economic potential of its neighbors.

The system:

This is based on five factors off the UWP. As there is no single economic factor, these five substitute for it. They are:

Population. As population rises, the potential market rises with it. As this value is an exponential, it is represented in the formula below as an exponential too. Too few people, there is no market for goods. Lots of people equals a big potential market for goods.

Tech level. Until tech level rises to a minimum level where what is being produced locally has some potential export value, there is little economic value in the local economy. This rises substantially as it approaches the highest technology levels available.

Starport: A great starport provides more access. A poor or non-existent one adds little or no value to the economy.

Government and Law. These go hand in hand. No government or law is almost as bad as an oppressive government and heavy handed legal system.

The formula:

(Pop^2 + TL + SP + (( Gov + Law)/2)^2) / 30 = EV (economic value)
This is rounded to two decimal places.

Determining the values:

Pop (Population) is determined by taking the square of the UWP pop value.

Tech level (TL) uses the following table:
TL Value
0 1
1 1
2 1
3 1
4 1
5 1
6 3
7 6
8 9
9 12
A 24
B 36
C 48
D 60
E 72
F+ 84

The starport (SP) value is taken from the following table:
Port Value
A 64
B 24
C 8
D 2
E 0
X 0

Government values are on the following table:
Code Value
0 3
1 5
2 8
3 4
4 8
5 7
6 1
7 5
8 4
9 2
A 3
B 0
C 3
D 0
E 0
F 0

Law level values are on the following table.
Code Value
0 1
1 2
2 3
3 3
4 4
5 5
6 6
7 7
8 7
9 7
A 7
B 3
C 1
D 1
E+ 0


When these are run through the formula, the result will be between 0 and 10. A 0 or 1 is pretty much an economic basket case, while an 8 to 10 is an economic powerhouse. Worlds close to 5 have healthy economies.

You might wonder why the world’s physical conditions like atmosphere, size, or hydrographics were not considered. This is because they don’t impact the economic ability of that world in a significant way. A world will produce what it can produce with the resources available. The local population, government, law, technology, and starport determine the access to the resources in the system and their exploitation.

Cargo

The second place this can be used, is in determining general cargo available for small ships, of the sort players usually are using in a game. This system is ONLY for cargo. IT doesn’t cover speculative trade, or other items beyond basic cargo availability. The system for that is as follows:

If the system you are in and the system you are going to has an EV >= 5 there is sufficient cargo to fill to the ship’s capacity.

If the system you are in or are going to has an EV < 5 then the following formula is used:

(EV current system * (1 / (EV current system – EV system to go to))) * 2D6 = tons of cargo available.

Cargo available is always rounded up to the next ton.

Example: The system you are in has an EV of 5.23. The system you want to go to has an EV of 2.41. The formula filled out is:
(5.23 * (1/(5.23 -2.41))) * 2D6
Or
1.85 * 2D6
You roll a 7. That means you have 12.95, or 13 tons of cargo available.

If the above calculation results in a value <= 0 then, you may opt to use the following formula:

The above result + (EV current system) * 2D6 = tons of cargo available.

Example: The system you are in has an EV of 2.52. The system you are going to has an EV of 4.83. This gives:
(2.52 * (1/(2.52-4.83))) * 2D6
Or
-1.09 * 2D6
You roll a 4. That means there is negative 4.36 tons of cargo. So, you use the second formula:

2.52 * 2D6
You roll a 9 this time. This results in:

22.86 – 4.36 = 18.32 tons or 19 tons of cargo available.

This could still result in a negative cargo quantity depending on the rolls. If it is, there is no cargo available.

Within the Third Imperium, amber zones count half, red zones have no cargo. These are optional, per the referee, outside the Third Imperium.

What this system results in is that if you are going to low tech, backwater, worlds with a population of a few thousand, be prepared to find most of the time there is no cargo available regardless of where you’re going next.
If you want reliable cargo, you have to trade between the economically viable worlds in a subsector. You can also reliably expect some cargo going from an economic powerhouse to a backwater world, but probably won’t find much for the return trip.

This system works. It is consistent anywhere you go. Using a spreadsheet makes it simple to use and track a ship’s cargo purchases and sales.

 

[kilemall]

Hmm, this strikes me as falling more on the sim side then game play value. In particular this is going to drive traffic away from all the interesting little screwy backwater planets where you have all that adventure possibility.

The other part I am concerned with is that I don't know the sim is accurate. Specifically, small crappy worlds will be desperate to earn coin to buy the products or resources they cannot generate through their own technology and facilities.

I would expect a lot of cheap raw resources being shipped out, disproportionately large to the planet's ability to buy imports.

So for general cargo, I would tend to reverse it- the EV would define how many tons are available for the destination.

Most people who are shipping already have buyers so small lots of precisely targeted items for known customers of the small EV worlds, a huge maw of tonnage consumption for the high tech interstellar powerhouse planets. Not many tons going out there, likely all finished goods or industrial equipment. Plenty coming back. Interstellar mercantilism at it's finest.

 

[kilemall]

The other way to go that comes to mind is to use this in speculation.

Basic concept- planets have typical imports and exports they are known for.

So roll on the speculation table for which items are typical import/exports.

The number of imports/exports typical to a world would be equivalent to the EV.

1 EV, 1 import and 1 export rolled.
10 EV, 10 imports and 10 exports rolled.

If a planet has the same import and export item, it means there is an interplanetary trade going on with a resource feeding a customer.

Could be a mining colony producing raw resources to an industry, could be an ag planet that is the main population center feeding the outworlds.

So shipping interstellar may involve going direct to the source or market. Or maybe they are considered off-limits and captive and going direct may involve consequences.

Then, when it's speculation export time, simply roll 1d6, 1-3 is normal speculation table, 4-6 is one of the known exports.

Effects vary according to rules set and ref tastes. For CT, I would roll an additional 1d6 to drop the price.

No special rolls for speculation imports, just an adjustment for price up. For CT, I would roll an additional 1d6 to add to the price.

If it's been years since the PCs have been to a planet or there is out of date information, consider changing what the import/export items are, surprise and changing markets should be part of the play.

 

[Enoki]

Hmm, this strikes me as falling more on the sim side then game play value. In particular this is going to drive traffic away from all the interesting little screwy backwater planets where you have all that adventure possibility.

Why? It leaves cargo going in as highly viable, even possibly more so than the original rules allow. It just means there's not a lot coming out.

The other part I am concerned with is that I don't know the sim is accurate. Specifically, small crappy worlds will be desperate to earn coin to buy the products or resources they cannot generate through their own technology and facilities.

How is a world with say a population of several thousand, a TL of 7, and a so-so government going to do that? There aren't enough people to generate big income. There's likely little they can export unless there's some very specific item or resource they have. Even then, if that resource requires refinement, or processing, it's not going to be the high dollar item it is at the market end.

I would expect a lot of cheap raw resources being shipped out, disproportionately large to the planet's ability to buy imports.

I wouldn't. A small mining operation or the like simply can't produce the volume of product necessary to make a lot of money. It takes some exceptional, rare resource to make a small pop specialty system work, and even then, it's going to be a boom system.
Think of it in the way of the mining boom towns of the early industrial revolution.

So for general cargo, I would tend to reverse it- the EV would define how many tons are available for the destination.

That's what this system does. It predicts what the available cargo going to a destination will be. You're on a higher tech, higher population world they're exporting stuff to their low pop neighbors.
Their low EV neighbors are exporting or shipping what they can, usually small amounts of stuff of variable worth. If the low EV planet does have a niche resource or product, they might be making good money on small volume, but it's still small volume.

Most people who are shipping already have buyers so small lots of precisely targeted items for known customers of the small EV worlds, a huge maw of tonnage consumption for the high tech interstellar powerhouse planets. Not many tons going out there, likely all finished goods or industrial equipment. Plenty coming back. Interstellar mercantilism at it's finest.

For many low EV worlds you're talking a population of maybe thousands. That means for many products the total shipped there might be a few tons a year. Multiply that by a number of products and at any given time there's a small number of tons going to that world. There simply isn't any market for more. Population determines the market size. Tech level, government, law, and the starport determine whether the locals have cash to spend or not.

Used on a spreadsheet in particular, this simplifies what CT and MT have for cargo to a single roll... Two if you get a negative outcome. You don't have to worry about the size of the load, or make multiple rolls to get a load. There's simply X tons of cargo going where you're going.

 

[Enoki]

The other thing the EV does is show you in a single number what the potential of each system is. I've used it on over a dozen subsectors now and I always find the same thing.

First, in any subsector, there are 3 to 5 (give or take) really economically viable systems. These are the ones that generate most of the trade in the subsector. They have EV's of 6+.

The rest are split between systems with a value of less than 3, making them true backwaters with no economy to speak of. They typically are systems with few people and or low tech. The others are ones that could be doing alright for their tech level but they're simply not competitive with the big guys.

It mirrors nations on Earth in that sense.

It's also made me question why the X-boat routes are what they are. I'd expect the X-boats and major trade routes to be between the big economies and subsector capitals. But, they often aren't. That, to me, makes no sense.

 

[kilemall]

How is a world with say a population of several thousand, a TL of 7, and a so-so government going to do that? There aren't enough people to generate big income. There's likely little they can export unless there's some very specific item or resource they have. Even then, if that resource requires refinement, or processing, it's not going to be the high dollar item it is at the market end.

I wouldn't. A small mining operation or the like simply can't produce the volume of product necessary to make a lot of money. It takes some exceptional, rare resource to make a small pop specialty system work, and even then, it's going to be a boom system.
Think of it in the way of the mining boom towns of the early industrial revolution.

The Comstock Lode is EXACTLY my model. It didn't get going though until the railroads could ship the material out, and the ore to smelting prior to shipment out of state. Tonnage may have been far less then say the burgeoning cattle business of the west, but definitely worth far more per ton-mile.

That's what this system does. It predicts what the available cargo going to a destination will be. You're on a higher tech, higher population world they're exporting stuff to their low pop neighbors.
Their low EV neighbors are exporting or shipping what they can, usually small amounts of stuff of variable worth. If the low EV planet does have a niche resource or product, they might be making good money on small volume, but it's still small volume.

Whether it's my wording or your misunderstanding, that is not what I am proposing. I'll reexpress the concept in the terminology you seem to be using.

I am saying the EV should be used for the market, not the origin.

So big shipments go TO the high EV world or between high EV worlds, and small or non-existent ones to the low EV world.

And again, for the reasons I expressed- that the smaller economy desperately wants produced items, but does not have a deep enough production, support and/or export base to pay for it, whereas the big economy planets can pay and have the breadth of consumers/value add companies to buy.

So the lower EV planet would ship more lower tech material to be able to buy the better high EV origin items. A higher percentage of the lower EV planet's economy would turn to export for exchange purposes

And that would be consistent with what the player cargo system is based on anyway- odd lots not consigned to regular corporate/government service. Wouldn't it make more sense that such planets would produce a higher percentage of odd lots given that there is likely less regular service?

Heh, EV=RU?

 

[tjoneslo]

Two things:

First the EVs are log scaled with regards to economy. Meaning if you calculate 10^EV you can estimate the size of the economy.

Maximum values I can come up with for EV based upon real worlds:

Axxx947-F => 9.50 => 3,162,277,660
AxxxA57-F => 9.90 => 7,943,282,347
AxxxB77-F => 10.17 => 14,791,083,881

Second. I would think that the player's skills (e.g. broker or bribes) could modify the amount of cargo available.

A quick and dirty way would be to allow the player to add their broker skill to either the source or destination world EV. Gives the skilled players more (potential) cargo to haul.

You can work this in reverse too. Annoy the locals, and the GM can supply a -1 (or worse) penalty to the EV for the world for the players. Makes the world a difficult place to buy or sell cargo.

Also you can apply a -1 DM for running the route again too soon. Bring in a load of cargo and there is a -1 EV for the world for a month (or two). Bring a second one, and get another -1 EV. This prevents the running of cargo from large world to a smaller one indefinitely. And reflects the challenges of having a small world generate enough currency to buy external goods too often.

Or get a gold rush or Government sponsored colonization effort, and give the world a +1 or +2 DM, to encourage (slightly) the trade to and from the world.

And this might move the EVs for the world above (or below) 5, meaning it would be very easy to fill a cargo hold, or much more difficult.

 

[Enoki]

Yes, they are a square function, or log scale. That reflects that those planets with TL's that are at the current high end of technology will be the ones that produce the most valuable and widely distributed products while those at the lower end have fewer options for what will sell as an export in particular.
The starport is the same way. You have good connections to your neighboring systems you have more import - export potential. You lack a starport, you aren't getting near the business. This could be due as much to your lack of technology or population as anything else too.

The resulting EV figure is supposed to be somewhere between 1 and 10. Because the formula is exponential, the results on average will be too. There simply won't be many worlds with an 8+ economy. You really have to have done everything right to get in that range. The average economies, say high 4.XX to 5.XX are doing okay. A 6 to 8 is really capable of supplying its own needs and exporting to its neighbors.
Anything 4 or less pretty much indicates a basket case. These simply don't have some combination of population, starport, technology, or a repressive government that causes the economy to fail. Usually, its more than one factor.
So, while the resulting number is linear, the results look more like a bell curve than a flat line.

Yes, I need to add in the DM for things like broker and what-not. That's easily done and really wouldn't change over the standard rules for DM's.

I also agree that local conditions could change things as the referee wants to. Certainly a local "gold rush" or something would skew cargo shipments dramatically in some cases. A system / planet with some really high demand specialty item would too. I did that with some systems in the Glimmerdrift on the border of the Hinterworlds, I called the Boutique Worlds. Each has some highly valuable export unique to that world that skews demand.

The advantages of this system are:

It uses standard UWP values to determine the EV.
It results in a single number for each world / system.
It is relatively simple once you get used to the formulas
You need only make a single roll for cargo at any stop.
DM's are easily added to the system for local exceptions and player skill.

The original CT / MT cargo system had you rolling for major, minor, and other cargo and freight as if there was some difference within the game, applying DM's repeatedly... And in a few cases duplicating the effect of something. It is cumbersome and time consuming.

If you had the EV for each world listed on something like the Traveller map and were playing a merchant type game, you could easily and quickly tell which worlds were the best for cargo, imports and exports.

What this system doesn't handle is speculative trade. That's a far more complex subject and one I haven't tried to deal with... yet...

 

[Timerover51]

One comment I do have, with the following data coming from the CIA World Factbook for the current year.

How does the formula work for present-day India, which is capable of launching its own satellites, so Tech Level 8 to 9, has a population of 1.26+ billion, and a per capita income of $6,700? For government, I would rate it as 9-Impersonal Bureaucracy, with a Law Level of say 6 to 7.

Edit Note: If I give India a starport of C, my answer, assuming I ran the formula correctly, is just under 4, 3.94166 more exactly.

Note, I would rate the CIA estimate of percentage of the population below the poverty level and income disparity as a bit on the optimistic side.

 

[Enoki]

One comment I do have, with the following data coming from the CIA World Factbook for the current year.

How does the formula work for present-day India, which is capable of launching its own satellites, so Tech Level 8 to 9, has a population of 1.26+ billion, and a per capita income of $6,700? For government, I would rate it as 9-Impersonal Bureaucracy, with a Law Level of say 6 to 7.

Edit Note: If I give India a starport of C, my answer, assuming I ran the formula correctly, is just under 4, 3.94166 more exactly.

Note, I would rate the CIA estimate of percentage of the population below the poverty level and income disparity as a bit on the optimistic side.

It is an estimate of potential. That aside, it is a good market for many goods today, indicating that there is considerable potential for imports, and that there are likely to be exports too. So, on the whole a rating of 3.94 probably isn't too far off the mark.
If you gave them a B starport (after all they do have ballistic missile capacity, and can build major sized ships locally... sort of the equivalent) then they'd jump up a bit. If we were to say they were around a 4 to 4.25 that makes them an up and coming "world" economically, which they are.