RandyT0001
SOC-13
The Drake equation: N = N* fp ne fl fi fc fL
( http://www.activemind.com/Mysterious/Topics/SETI/drake_equation.html )
At the bottom of the above linked page is a calculator one can use to input your own factors and solve the equation (if you have Netscape Livescript). The number in the parentheses is what the calculator has as the default and is used by some scientists when solving the equation.
N* represents the number of stars in the Milky Way Galaxy. Current estimates are 100 billion. (100 billion)
Reasonable to me. 100 billion to 200 billion. I use 100 billion.
fp is the fraction of stars that have planets around them. Current estimates range from 20% to 50%. (50%)
My belief is that there are more, probably about 70% of stars have some planets around them.
ne is the number of planets per star that are capable of sustaining life. Current estimates range from 1 to 5. (1)
So every star is going to have a planet in it's habitable zone with liquid water? This IMO is too optimistic. Of the nine worlds in our system only one has life and possibly another had life in the past, Mars. That's about 22% of the worlds in our system. I use the 0.33 factor here believing that at most every third star will have a planet in the habitable zone. If they had the option to use 0.25 or 0.2 then I would have used those numbers intead.
fl is the fraction of planets in ne where life evolves. Current estimates range from 100% down to close to 0%. (50%)
My belief is that primitive life, bacteria, algae, etc will spawn readily from the basic chemistry of ammino acids, peptides, etc that is naturally produced on worlds that are in a star's habitable zone. I used 90% here as the factor. Maybe I'm too optimistic here.
fi is the fraction of fl where intelligent life evolves. Estimates range from 100% down to near 0%. (20%)
By "intelligent life" I am going to suppose they mean as intelligent as humans. Of the million plus species here on Earth there might be 1000-10,000 species with the potential to develop intelligence as high as humans have but have not becasue humans did. I'm going to be generous here (IMO) and say that 1 of 20 life bearing planets will develop a species as intelligent as humans.
fc is the fraction of fi that communicate. Estimates are 10% to 20%. (20%)
So the scientists think that one out of five intelligent species will develop some form of "radio" technology? It seems to me they are ignoring our own past. Of the 100,000 years modern man has walked the Earth only in the last 2000 years or so has there been much impetus to develop new technologies. Only in the last 500 years or so has there been advances in technology for the primary purpose of advancement. I think that even an intelligent species will be too content to just survive life, as we did for tens of thousands of years, to have much technological advancement. I use 1% as the factor here.
fL is fraction of the planet's life during which the communicating civilizations live. Estimates range from less than 100 years to over one million years. (10,000 years)
All life is about conflict, survival of the fittest. It is about using the resources for you and your offspring. If ways to better utilize these resources evolve or are developed via technology then life seizes upon that advantage. For an intelligent species it is technology that is developed over what is really a short evolutionary time scale. How long before an intelligent species kills itself? One million years? IMO, too long. 10,000 years seems to me to be the top end of the scale here. One thousand years seems to be a reasonable number to me given that life involves conflict over limited resources (and the realistic limitations to interstellar space flight). I use 1000 years as this factor.
N = the number of communicating civilizations in the galaxy. (1000)
My final number of communicting civilizations in the galaxy is: 1.0395 And that would be us. Even if we were to use 1000 civilazations that would be one per 100,000,000 stars. Hell, even with the Hubble telescope, I don't think humans have been able to locate 100,000,000 stars yet.
What does this mean for Traveller? Using my numbers then there are 2079 worlds of the 3rd Imperium's (approximately) 10,000 worlds that have life on them. Of those 104 have intelligent life. Only one (Terra) develops enough technology to have radio and develop space travel. Changes the scenery a bit doesn't it?
Make of it what you will.
( http://www.activemind.com/Mysterious/Topics/SETI/drake_equation.html )
At the bottom of the above linked page is a calculator one can use to input your own factors and solve the equation (if you have Netscape Livescript). The number in the parentheses is what the calculator has as the default and is used by some scientists when solving the equation.
N* represents the number of stars in the Milky Way Galaxy. Current estimates are 100 billion. (100 billion)
Reasonable to me. 100 billion to 200 billion. I use 100 billion.
fp is the fraction of stars that have planets around them. Current estimates range from 20% to 50%. (50%)
My belief is that there are more, probably about 70% of stars have some planets around them.
ne is the number of planets per star that are capable of sustaining life. Current estimates range from 1 to 5. (1)
So every star is going to have a planet in it's habitable zone with liquid water? This IMO is too optimistic. Of the nine worlds in our system only one has life and possibly another had life in the past, Mars. That's about 22% of the worlds in our system. I use the 0.33 factor here believing that at most every third star will have a planet in the habitable zone. If they had the option to use 0.25 or 0.2 then I would have used those numbers intead.
fl is the fraction of planets in ne where life evolves. Current estimates range from 100% down to close to 0%. (50%)
My belief is that primitive life, bacteria, algae, etc will spawn readily from the basic chemistry of ammino acids, peptides, etc that is naturally produced on worlds that are in a star's habitable zone. I used 90% here as the factor. Maybe I'm too optimistic here.
fi is the fraction of fl where intelligent life evolves. Estimates range from 100% down to near 0%. (20%)
By "intelligent life" I am going to suppose they mean as intelligent as humans. Of the million plus species here on Earth there might be 1000-10,000 species with the potential to develop intelligence as high as humans have but have not becasue humans did. I'm going to be generous here (IMO) and say that 1 of 20 life bearing planets will develop a species as intelligent as humans.
fc is the fraction of fi that communicate. Estimates are 10% to 20%. (20%)
So the scientists think that one out of five intelligent species will develop some form of "radio" technology? It seems to me they are ignoring our own past. Of the 100,000 years modern man has walked the Earth only in the last 2000 years or so has there been much impetus to develop new technologies. Only in the last 500 years or so has there been advances in technology for the primary purpose of advancement. I think that even an intelligent species will be too content to just survive life, as we did for tens of thousands of years, to have much technological advancement. I use 1% as the factor here.
fL is fraction of the planet's life during which the communicating civilizations live. Estimates range from less than 100 years to over one million years. (10,000 years)
All life is about conflict, survival of the fittest. It is about using the resources for you and your offspring. If ways to better utilize these resources evolve or are developed via technology then life seizes upon that advantage. For an intelligent species it is technology that is developed over what is really a short evolutionary time scale. How long before an intelligent species kills itself? One million years? IMO, too long. 10,000 years seems to me to be the top end of the scale here. One thousand years seems to be a reasonable number to me given that life involves conflict over limited resources (and the realistic limitations to interstellar space flight). I use 1000 years as this factor.
N = the number of communicating civilizations in the galaxy. (1000)
My final number of communicting civilizations in the galaxy is: 1.0395 And that would be us. Even if we were to use 1000 civilazations that would be one per 100,000,000 stars. Hell, even with the Hubble telescope, I don't think humans have been able to locate 100,000,000 stars yet.
What does this mean for Traveller? Using my numbers then there are 2079 worlds of the 3rd Imperium's (approximately) 10,000 worlds that have life on them. Of those 104 have intelligent life. Only one (Terra) develops enough technology to have radio and develop space travel. Changes the scenery a bit doesn't it?
Make of it what you will.
