Is the Traveller Market Fractured

[Liam Devlin]

Originally posted by Rhialto the Marvelous:
Liam, when I mean products available right now, I don't mean pdfs or reprints of old material. Nobody* new to Traveller will bother buying those. If you were 25 now, would you buy reprints of games that are as old as you are yourself?

If I was 25 now...

I can't answer that one, as I cannot turn back the clock, alas..

The only people who buy them are--our fine grognardy selves. We get them as backups, or to fill this or that hole in our 25+-years-old collection.

..Or to go back and find the means to unite the fractured rulesets, Like I did

Then there are recent Trav products that cater, again, to us grognards, and that's where the fragmentation does set in, e.g. with Avenger's 1248 (setting fragmentation), or something like Trav HERO (rules fragmentation).

In era-setting, I disagree. Ruleset wise I concur.

But with all respect to the authors and publishers: those are small enterprises, $$$-wise and community-wise. They're not large enough to atomize a market or a community.

What really counts, in terms of atomization or not, are currently supported, full-blown, stand-alone Traveller game lines. Here we have a choice between GT and T20. And those are both on their way out. (Yes, both. We have the T20 corebook and a worldbook. Maybe we'll get a player's book. Nowadays, three books is a fairly good run for a game line.)

I'm sorry, I'm not in this for a "good run". I'm here to help perpetuate the game.

So if you have core deadtree books pubbed, they're some how legitimate more than say a small enterprise's pdf series of them, and that pdf publications don't matter, cannot fracture the Traveller market?

Does the 1248 deadtree Out of the Darkness & Bearer's of the Flame count?

Now, 'last time I checked, they were systemless, and the buyer-player-GM could choose which rulesets they wished for them...

I see that uniting, not separating.

If and when T5 gets published, it would be just in time to replace GT and T20. And suddenly, we'd have a single market leader. Things would look very neat and simple to those who are new to Traveller. A clean slate.

All this is assuming T5 turns out great, of course...

I strongly disagree with your T5 assessment uniting on a clean slate, based on the various rulesets fracturing of the Market already documented.

(Again) My opinion of T5 is posted on the other thread.

Thanks for being even clearer. Hope I was too.

sincerely,

 

[Malenfant]

Originally posted by Supplement Four:
Let's look at some quick-figuring numbers and take some guesses.

I have no idea how big the market is for Traveller, but I'm sure, by looking at game store shelves, that Traveller's market is a small subset of the entire rpg-buying public.

For figuring sake, let's pick a big, round number. Let's say that Traveller's market is 100,000 consumers.

That's the entire market--all of those who buy Traveller items for any rule edition.

Now, again, I'm just picking a number out of the air. Maybe that real number is bigger than 100 grand. Maybe it's smaller. Nobody probably knows for sure. But, since we'll be working with percentages, the point can be made. (Just insert the real number.)

OK, let's consider the fractionalization of the Traveller market. Already, we know that the entire Traveller market is but a small part of the entire RPG market (I'm sure no one would argue that D&D has the largest market share).

As MJD has already stated elsewhere, what's happening is that an already small market is yet again subdivided among the various rules sets.

Or, in other words, the small Traveller market is fractured.

I think it's true to say that most of the fanbase got into the game through CT. Then MT came out and some percentage of that fanbase bought into that wholesale, and some percentage remained with CT, and some more people joined from outside. Then TNE came out, and then most likely the split was from the MT fanbase only (and some came in from outside again). For all the screaming that the CT grognards threw about TNE, I don't think any of those people were actually the type who would have bought into it in the first place. Then T4 came out, and some of the CT group went for that (and others came from outside). GT and T20 probably got some of the remaining CT market but more likely found their own new markets. So really I think the "Traveller market" may actually be the original CT crowd, since I think those who came into Traveller after CT came out are far fewer than those who came into it while it was the only system around. And that is what is actually being fractured with each new system.

We can't really make the other versions of Traveller go away (though see below). That being the case, they are always going to be possible purchase options, and now that most of them are available online via DTRPG or the CD-ROMs it's a hell of a lot easier to get into them. So if someone likes the old GDW house system he can get TNE and be happy. If someone else like the CT system he can get the reprints or the CDROM and be happy.

For there to be any "unifying" system, you'd have to remove all the other systems. That's easy enough for Marc to do - he pulls the licenses for all other active systems (ie GT and T20), stops selling the reprints and the CDROMs, and gets DTRPG to remove all the PDFs of the other editions of the game. That leaves the stuff on Ebay and in the bargain bins, but that's a microscopic percentage of the possible market. Then when he releases a new system, that becomes the only practical, easily accessible choice for a newcomer or for someone looking for active support of the OTU.

But doing that is going to alienate a lot of people - if the T20 or GT crowd wanted to play a system that is say, vaguely like a revised T4 then they probably would have got T4 to start with - and the same applies for the remaining CT crowd. The only sensible option I can see here is that Marc's got to produce a system and a setting that will appeal to the core of his market (i.e. the CT crowd) to keep their interest, and keeping T20 and GT up and running alongside it doing their own thing and appealing to their own submarkets.

 

[Supplement Four]

Originally posted by Malenfant:
For there to be any "unifying" system, you'd have to remove all the other systems.

Why?

Why not just convert (or pull if they're not interested in converting) all licenses to the new system, ensuring that all new Traveller product will be produced for the "official" system?

People want to sell reprints of TNE, T20, GT, whatever...why not let them?

It's just that nothing new will be produced except for the one official Traveller system.

FFE produces the main line.

Avenger/Comstar produce products to support the FFE main line.

QLI either switches to producting items for the main line, or they are stuck reprinting older T20 stuff for as long as they can sell it.

SJG can either produce stuff for the main line or, like QLI, reprint older GT stuff for as long as they can sell it.

Any new publishers of Traveller material will produce stuff for the main line.

...in effect, every publisher publishes Traveller stuff that works with the "official" rules set.

That's the only way publishers are going to be profitable with Traveller material down the line.

The alternative, as I tried to illustrate above, is a slow death for Traveller as the core group of players age and cease playing (read: cease buying Trav stuff).

-S4

 

[Supplement Four]

If MWM is real smart, what he'll do is capture the biggest part of the market (74% according to those numbers in that poll I cite above) by producing T5 as an improved version of CT/MT.

He's likely to lose the least of his market that way and increase market share for Traveller publishers.

100,000 world wide market.

74,000 reduced world wide market after 26% of the market gets pissed because the new "official" system isn't TNE, or GT, or T20.

All publishers of Traveller material experience an increase in sales...because even though the entire market shrank to the tune of 26%, the customers for their products jumped up seven fold (because the Traveller market is no longer fragmented).

That's the business plan for success.




And, publishers of Traveller should put out some dynamite products with fantastic art and excellent content--that will not only please consumers comprising the current market but also bring in new blood to the game.

It's got to be a dynamite game, though. It's got to rock. It's got to look good. And, it's got to be well written/well thought out.

There's an opportunity here to turn the who boat around.

The ship just needs a good captain.

-S4

 

[Supplement Four]

Originally posted by Supplement Four:
</font><blockquote>code:</font><hr /><pre style="font-size:x-small; font-family: monospace;">CT 52%
MT 24%
TNE 0%
T4 2%
GT 11%
T20 11%</pre>

[/quote]These poll results illuminate a grave mistake MWM is making with T5.

Last I heard, T5 was based on T4.

Note, from the poll, that only 2% of the market uses T4 as their system of choice.

That's bad business. No wonder I've seen so many people spout negative things about their experiences with T5.

Marc, brother, you've got to wake up and base T5 on CT/MT. That's where the majority of your market is.

-S4

 

[atpollard]

When CT first came out, I was impressed by two things - the Character Career History and the simplicity of the rules. Putting aside the terrible errata problems of some of the later traveller rules, I think that the original simplicity has been lost. For me, Traveller IS both a setting (that I sometimes used and sometimes did not) AND a rules set.

If the entire world decides that they want an ultra detailed rules system and Traveller flourishes under that system, then I will be happy for those who play it - but I will always prefer the elegant simplicity that first attracted me to the game.

PS. given the OCD factor of the existing fan base, Traveller will not die a quiet death.

 

[Jeff M. Hopper]

Originally posted by al duc:
</font><blockquote>quote:</font><hr />Originally posted by Liam Devlin:
Seriously...GURPS traveller is dwindling in output.

Funny how the fact that JTAS publishes a new issue every two weeks doesn't even register with many Traveller fans... </font>[/QUOTE]This is something that I 'm wondering as well. So far JTAS has published an article for every version of Traveller except for the TNE ruleset. If people would like a rallying point for players using diverse rules that caters to those diverse rules, then JTAS would be a good place to do so in an effort to stop the "fracturing" or the "balkanization". JTAS could become a "United Nations" for players of differing Traveller rulesets.

By all indications, even if SJG stopped doing GURPS Traveller, JTAS would still be supported as long as there are subscribers.

From my own viewpoint, I enjoy the diversity of rules for Traveller. The differing rulesets can be picked through and combined by me as a referee to create a game that is more enjoyable for my players due to the hybrid vigor of the diverse combinations. By seeing the differences and the commonalities of various Traveller rulesets, I gain insights that improve my game.

 

[Malenfant]

Originally posted by Supplement Four:
</font><blockquote>quote:</font><hr />Originally posted by Malenfant:
[qb] For there to be any "unifying" system, you'd have to remove all the other systems.

Why?

Why not just convert (or pull if they're not interested in converting) all licenses to the new system, ensuring that all new Traveller product will be produced for the "official" system?
</font>[/QUOTE]Who's going to do all that work? Publishers who currently have their own systems (SJG and QLI) would want to produce supplements for those systems, not someone else's - that promotes sales of their own products. If SJG produced T5 supplements, then why would any Traveller fans buy GURPS?

People want to sell reprints of TNE, T20, GT, whatever...why not let them?

Well, why do you think Microsoft stops supporting its old operating systems after a while, and pulls the previous one from the shelves as soon as the new ones come out? It's because they want everyone on the same page - they want everyone to buy the new one primarily because sales of the new one is what makes them the most money.

Marc's surely not making much off any sales of TNE or GT or T20 anymore - those tailed off a long time ago. If he wants to make the most money, then he'll want to close everything else down and focus people on his system. And he'll want it to be a system that they would want to adopt.

 

[Malenfant]

Originally posted by Jeff M. Hopper:
By all indications, even if SJG stopped doing GURPS Traveller, JTAS would still be supported as long as there are subscribers.

While I was there at least (which was a while ago), SJG were losing money on JTAS more often than not - I think at best it was barely breaking even.

What JTAS has going for it is that they actually pay decent coin for articles (and if you liked SJG's stuff then they gave you double the cash payment in Warehouse 23 credit, which was rather cool - I bought most of GT that way). The problem is that the readership is very small - I suspect my 'Brown Dwarf' and 'Interstellar Wanderers' articles remain hidden from most of the Traveller fanbase because they're on JTAS .

 

[Jeff M. Hopper]

Originally posted by Malenfant:
</font><blockquote>quote:</font><hr />Originally posted by Jeff M. Hopper:
By all indications, even if SJG stopped doing GURPS Traveller, JTAS would still be supported as long as there are subscribers.

While I was there at least (which was a while ago), SJG were losing money on JTAS more often than not - I think at best it was barely breaking even.
</font>[/QUOTE]If JTAS was in the dire financial condition that you state when your articles were published back in 2003, then how is it that JTAS is still active and being published in 2007? I'd say that JTAS is made of sterner stuff then you would imply.

 

[Supplement Four]

I love the old JTAS. (And, I love the Traveller White Dwarf articles, as well as Traveller's Digest).

But, from what little I've seen of the SJG JTAS (the sample copies), I wasn't impressed. I wasn't impressed at all.

From those of you who read the SJG JTAS...did I just see some subpar articles?

Is the SJG JTAS any good?

 

[Jeff M. Hopper]

Originally posted by Supplement Four:
I love the old JTAS. (And, I love the Traveller White Dwarf articles, as well as Traveller's Digest).

But, from what little I've seen of the SJG JTAS (the sample copies), I wasn't impressed. I wasn't impressed at all.

From those of you who read the SJG JTAS...did I just see some subpar articles?

Is the SJG JTAS any good?

I've gotten my money's worth and more out of the online JTAS. Here's a thread about it.

 

[flykiller]

... and any RPG game driven by sales & a lack thereof, is it seen as "dead"? ... and address more products that all of us can use & enjoy

well there is such a thing as saturation. if not another traveller publication were ever printed I won't live long enough to exhaust all the traveller game ideas I have now, and see on this board, and see on the net, and have in the traveller materials I already own. I could use some minor game support materials, sure, but another ruleset or another setting or a "unified" traveller is just overflow.

Unite, or Traveller dies a slow, lingering death.

among those who play, traveller is doing just fine. the quantity of fan material is overwhelming. as for new players, apparently many don't see something they want to play - if they did, they'd play, "unified" game or not.

 

[Malenfant]

Originally posted by Jeff M. Hopper:
If JTAS was in the dire financial condition that you state when your articles were published back in 2003, then how is it that JTAS is still active and being published in 2007? I'd say that JTAS is made of sterner stuff then you would imply. [/QB]

Or that SJG doesn't mind taking a bit of a loss to keep it going. I dunno, maybe it got out of the rut it was in. I think Jon did manage to turn it around at some point back then, maybe IW has made it pick up a bit too.

 

[The Shaman]

Originally posted by atpollard:
When CT first came out, I was impressed by two things - the Character Career History and the simplicity of the rules. Putting aside the terrible errata problems of some of the later traveller rules, I think that the original simplicity has been lost. For me, Traveller IS both a setting (that I sometimes used and sometimes did not) AND a rules set.

Originally posted by flykiller:
if not another traveller publication were ever printed I won't live long enough to exhaust all the traveller game ideas I have now, and see on this board, and see on the net, and have in the traveller materials I already own. I could use some minor game support materials, sure, but another ruleset or another setting or a "unified" traveller is just overflow. . . .among those who play, traveller is doing just fine. the quantity of fan material is overwhelming.

Both of those points are so well made, I'll just add, "Me, too."

 

[Liam Devlin]

The Shaman wrote:Both of those points are so well made, I'll just add, "Me, too."

"Brevity, the soul of wit." Thank you Shaman,

sincerely,

 

[Liam Devlin]

Originally posted by flykiller:
</font><blockquote>quote:</font><hr />... and any RPG game driven by sales & a lack thereof, is it seen as "dead"? ... and address more products that all of us can use & enjoy

You've a brilliant way with cut and paste, have I told you, flykiller?

well there is such a thing as saturation. if not another traveller publication were ever printed I won't live long enough to exhaust all the traveller game ideas I have now, and see on this board, and see on the net, and have in the traveller materials I already own. I could use some minor game support materials, sure, but another ruleset or another setting or a "unified" traveller is just overflow.

You'll dash the hopes of those thinking a Known Space Milieu-neutral full of each eras UWP's then is a good thing you keep this optimism up, flykiller.

Unite, or Traveller dies a slow, lingering death.

among those who play, traveller is doing just fine. the quantity of fan material is overwhelming. as for new players, apparently many don't see something they want to play - if they did, they'd play, "unified" game or not. </font>[/QUOTE]Well, S4's quote aside (I'm not ready to bury Traveller plainly said), yes, there is a plethora of "fan material" to choose from, usually doctored with this or that fan's ruleset, and a lot of it is adrekha (yes I used a fine Vilani word--thank you Professor Emeritus Robject!), which you must wallow through to find the gems.

As for "many new players", I'll wait till I hear from them. I do thank you for your opinions though. Thank you for responding, once again...I knew you would.

sincerely,

 

[ravells]

Supplement 4, your conclusion (that everyone publishing traveller materials would make more money if there was a single unified ruleset) depends on the assumption that the audience are going to increase their spending or that the total audience will grow. If 100,000 people spend $10 a year on traveller products, that's an annual income of $1,000,000 for the entire industry, regardless as to whether they are spending that money on a unified system or a fractured one.

Yes, if there is a unified system those who are producing products for a minority of the market (e.g. T20) are likely to gain, but that will mean losses for someone else, unless either the size of the market increases or people spend more.

So I'm still not convinced that a unified system is going to increase the amount spent on traveller products unless a unified system is likely to attract new players or cause existing players to spend more (again - not convinced about this).

Ravs

:Edit: What we need is a big buget film or TV series in a Traveller setting to inject new members.

 

[Pickles]

I would like to point out that if the market went all-T4 all-GT, all T20 or all-T5, I wouldn't be in the Traveller market. CT yes, MT maybe, but that's it. So, having one ruleset wouldn't be a panacea from my viewpoint nor, I suspect but lack the data to verify, from most other people's.

"You can satisfy some of the people with few rules sets, many of the people with many rules sets, but never all of the people with one rules set."

 

[Klaus]

So why don't new players see something they want to play? If Traveller really were doing fine, then I submit that they would.

The great pity is that the Traveller brand is still potentially very strong. It is respected by those who know, a venerable game with it's own distinctive, novel, and unfortunately, unimitated rule concept (why that is is for another thread).

The future of rpgs is certainly digital. Not necessarily mmorpgs in their current forms, maybe more along the lines of Mass Effect or KOTOR. There are no leading online sci fi games. EVE doesn't have 'on foot', and SW Galaxy is a bit naff, or so I've heard.

In fact, Traveller as a brand resembles that of it's 8-bit offspring, Elite. It too had a legendary first edition, then subsequent follow ups messed with the formula and didn't do as well. There's even the vapourware of Elite 4. The only reason Elite is not a major franchise now, is that the original was never released in the US, and so doesn't have the market traction it does in the UK.

How can Traveller as a brand continue? Well, how has Conan remained such a popular brand? It's not the books, and it's not the films. It's the comics. Incredibly popular, more popular than Spiderman worldwide.

That might be an answer. Traveller in another medium. Comics is one form that might work. Anime is another. Even a fan film. But Traveller is already on life support if it is only us aging geeks that give a damn.