LBB1/LBB4 To-Hit Probabilities

[Golan2072]

In order to prevent turning the previous thread into a specific game-mechanic discussion, I've decided to start a discussion of LBB1/LBB4 combat probabilities to a new thread.

Originally posted by tbeard1999:
... the CT combat system has some serious limitations when you (a) use military weaponry from Book 4; or (b) when you introduce Book 4+ characters who often have very high skill levels (it isn't uncommon in my experience for Mercenary characters to have 5+ levels of Combat Rifleman).

The result are weapons that hit *and* cause damage virtually automatically. I'm not a huge fan of this, and since my campaigns have lots of automatic weapons and gunfire, the CT system is particularly ill suited for me. Of course, the CT system works fine with Book 2 weaponry.

Under LBB1 combat, you hit on a modified result of 8+ on 2D. That's means that:

1) A total DM of -5 or more is an automatic miss.

2) A total DM of +6 or more is an automatic hit.

My aim is to find out the limits of the LBB1 combat system in regards to auto-hits and auto-misses. Both auto-hits and auto-misses aren't nescerily bad - Combat Armor SHOULD stop alot of attack types, and a grizzeled veteran (Rifle-3) SHOULD be able to hit a man at 5m in full-auto - but I want to see what the limits actually are.

By "External DM" I mean the total of all DMs except for the range and armor ones.

Auto Misses (External DM +0):
- Hands vs. Combat Armor at Short range.
- Claws vs. Combat Armor at all ranges.
- Teeth vs. Combat Armor at all ranges.
- Horns vs. Combat Armor at Close range.
- Hooves vs. Combat Armor at Close range.
- Club vs. Combat Armor at all ranges.
- Dagger vs. Mesh, Cloth and Combat Armor at Short range.
- Foil vs. Mesh at Close range and Combat armor at all ranges.
- Cutlass vs. Mesh, Cloth, Ablat and Combat armor at Close range.
- Sword vs. Mesh and Cloth at Close range and Combat Armor at all ranges.
- Broadsword vs. Mesh, Cloth, Ablat and Combat Armor at Close range.
- Bayonet vs. Combat Armor at Close range.
- Spear vs. Ablat at Close range and Combat armor at all ranges.
- Halberd vs. Combat Armor at Close range.
- Pike vs. Mesh, Cloth, Reflec, Ablat and Combat armor at Close range.
- Cudgel vs. Combat Armor at all ranges.
- Body Pistol vs. everything at Medium range or Combat Armor at all ranges.
- Autopistol vs. Mesh, Cloth, Ablat and Combat Armor at Medium range, anything at Long Range.
- Revolver vs. Cloth at Medium range, Mesh, Cloth and Ablat at Long Range, and Combat Armor at Medium and Long ranges.
- Carbine vs. Cloth and Combat Armor at anything but Short range, and Mesh at Very Long range.
- Rifle vs. Cloth at Close and Very Long ranges and Combat Armor at Close, Long and Very Long ranges.
- Autorifle vs. Mesh, Cloth and Ablat at Close range and Combat Armor at Close and Very Long ranges.
- Shotgun vs. Ablat at Close range, and Mesh, Cloth and Combat Armor at Close and Long ranges.
- SMG vs. Mesh and Ablat at Very Long range, and Cloth and Combat Armor at Close, Long and Very Long ranges.
- Laser Carbine vs. Reflec, Ablat and Comat Armor at all ranges.
- Laser Rifle vs. Reflec and Ablat at all ranges and Combat Armor at Close and Very Long ranges.
- Assaut Rifle (single) vs. Mesh at Close and Very Long range, Cloth at Close, Long and Very Long ranges, and Combat Armor at anything but Short range.
- Assualt Rifle (Auto) vs. Cloth at Close range, and Combat Armor at anything but Short range.
- LAG/DS vs. anything at Close range.
- LAG/HE vs. Cloth at Close range and Combat Armor at Close and Very Long ranges.
- LAG/Flech vs. Cloth at Close range and Combat Armor at Close and Very Long ranges.
- ACR/DS (single) vs. Cloth at Close Range and Combat Armor at Close and Very Long ranges.
- ACR/DS (auto) vs. Combat Armor at Close range.
- ACR/HE (single) vs. Cloth at Close, Long and Very Long ranges and Combat Armor at anything but Short range.
- ACR/HE (auto) vs. Cloth and Combat Armor at Close and Very Long ranges.
- Gauss Rifle (single) vs. Combat Armor at Close range.
- Accelerator Rifle (single) vs. anything at Close range and Mesh, Cloth, Ablat and Combat Armor at Short range.
- Accelerator Rifle (auto) vs. Ablat and Combat at Close range and Mesh, Cloth and Combat Armor at Short range.
- Snub Pistol/HE vs. anything at Medium range and Combat Armor at all ranges.
- Snub Pistol/HEAP vs. anything at Medium range.
- Snub Pistol/Tranq vs. Cloth at Close and Medium ranges and everything else at Medium range.
- RAM/HE (single) vs. Combat Armor at Very Long range.
- RAM/Flech (single) vs. Cloth and Combat Armor at Very Long range.
- RAM/HEAP (single) vs. Combat Armor at Very Long range.
- LMG vs. Cloth and Combat Armor at Short Range.

Auto Hits (External DM +0):
- Stinger vs. Nothing at all ranges and Jack at Close range.
- Thrasher vs. Nothing, Jack and Reflec at all ranges and Mesh, Cloth and Ablat at Close range.
- Cutlass vs. Nothing and Reflec at Short range.
- Broadsword vs. Nothing, Jack and Reflec at Short range.
- Autorifle vs. Nothing, Jack and Reflec at Short, Medium and Long ranges.
- Shotgun vs. Nothing, Jack and Reflec at Short and Medium ranges.
- SMG vs. Nothing, Jack and Reflec at Short and Medium ranges.
- Assault Rifle (auto) vs. Nothing, Jack and Reflec at Medium range.
- LAG/Flech vs. Nothing, Jack and Reflec at Short, Medium and Long ranges.
- ACR/DS (auto) vs. Nothing, Jack, Reflec and Ablat at Short, Medium and Long ranges.
- Gauss Rife (single) vs. Nothing, Jack, Reflec and Ablat at Medium and Long ranges.
- Gauss Rifle (auto) vs. Nothing, Jack, Mesh, Reflec and Ablat at all ranges but Close and Cloth at Medium and Long ranges.
- Accelerator Rifle (auto) vs. Nothing, Jack and Reflec at Medium and Long ranges and Ablat at Medium range.
- RAM/HE (single) vs. Nothing, Jack, Reflec and Ablat at Medium and Long ranges.
- RAM/HE (auto) vs. Nothing, Jack, Reflec and Ablat at all ranges and anything at Medium and Long ranges.
- RAM/Flech (single) vs. Nothing, Jack and Reflec at Medium and Long ranges and Mesh and Ablat at Medium range.
- RAM/Flech (auto) vs. Nothing, Jack and Reflec at all ranges and against Mesh and Ablat at Medium and Long ranges.
- RAM/HEAP (auto) vs. Nothing, Jack, Mesh, Reflec and Ablat at Medium and Long ranges and Combat Armor at Medium range.
- LMG vs. Nothing, Jack and Reflec at Medium, Long and Very Long ranges and vs. Mesh and Ablat at Medium range.
- Auto-Cannon/DS vs. ANYTHING AT ANY RANGE (!)
- Auto-Cannon/HE vs. ANYTHING AT ANY RANGE (!)
- PGMP-13/14 vs. Nothing, Jack, Mesh, Cloth, Reflec and Ablat at ALL RANGES.
- FGMP-14/15 vs. ANYTHING AT ANY RANGE (!)
- VRF Gauss Gun vs. ANYTHING AT ANY RANGE (!)

 

[Golan2072]

In order to prevent turning the previous thread into a specific game-mechanic discussion, I've decided to start a discussion of LBB1/LBB4 combat probabilities to a new thread.

Originally posted by tbeard1999:
... the CT combat system has some serious limitations when you (a) use military weaponry from Book 4; or (b) when you introduce Book 4+ characters who often have very high skill levels (it isn't uncommon in my experience for Mercenary characters to have 5+ levels of Combat Rifleman).

The result are weapons that hit *and* cause damage virtually automatically. I'm not a huge fan of this, and since my campaigns have lots of automatic weapons and gunfire, the CT system is particularly ill suited for me. Of course, the CT system works fine with Book 2 weaponry.

Under LBB1 combat, you hit on a modified result of 8+ on 2D. That's means that:

1) A total DM of -5 or more is an automatic miss.

2) A total DM of +6 or more is an automatic hit.

My aim is to find out the limits of the LBB1 combat system in regards to auto-hits and auto-misses. Both auto-hits and auto-misses aren't nescerily bad - Combat Armor SHOULD stop alot of attack types, and a grizzeled veteran (Rifle-3) SHOULD be able to hit a man at 5m in full-auto - but I want to see what the limits actually are.

By "External DM" I mean the total of all DMs except for the range and armor ones.

Auto Misses (External DM +0):
- Hands vs. Combat Armor at Short range.
- Claws vs. Combat Armor at all ranges.
- Teeth vs. Combat Armor at all ranges.
- Horns vs. Combat Armor at Close range.
- Hooves vs. Combat Armor at Close range.
- Club vs. Combat Armor at all ranges.
- Dagger vs. Mesh, Cloth and Combat Armor at Short range.
- Foil vs. Mesh at Close range and Combat armor at all ranges.
- Cutlass vs. Mesh, Cloth, Ablat and Combat armor at Close range.
- Sword vs. Mesh and Cloth at Close range and Combat Armor at all ranges.
- Broadsword vs. Mesh, Cloth, Ablat and Combat Armor at Close range.
- Bayonet vs. Combat Armor at Close range.
- Spear vs. Ablat at Close range and Combat armor at all ranges.
- Halberd vs. Combat Armor at Close range.
- Pike vs. Mesh, Cloth, Reflec, Ablat and Combat armor at Close range.
- Cudgel vs. Combat Armor at all ranges.
- Body Pistol vs. everything at Medium range or Combat Armor at all ranges.
- Autopistol vs. Mesh, Cloth, Ablat and Combat Armor at Medium range, anything at Long Range.
- Revolver vs. Cloth at Medium range, Mesh, Cloth and Ablat at Long Range, and Combat Armor at Medium and Long ranges.
- Carbine vs. Cloth and Combat Armor at anything but Short range, and Mesh at Very Long range.
- Rifle vs. Cloth at Close and Very Long ranges and Combat Armor at Close, Long and Very Long ranges.
- Autorifle vs. Mesh, Cloth and Ablat at Close range and Combat Armor at Close and Very Long ranges.
- Shotgun vs. Ablat at Close range, and Mesh, Cloth and Combat Armor at Close and Long ranges.
- SMG vs. Mesh and Ablat at Very Long range, and Cloth and Combat Armor at Close, Long and Very Long ranges.
- Laser Carbine vs. Reflec, Ablat and Comat Armor at all ranges.
- Laser Rifle vs. Reflec and Ablat at all ranges and Combat Armor at Close and Very Long ranges.
- Assaut Rifle (single) vs. Mesh at Close and Very Long range, Cloth at Close, Long and Very Long ranges, and Combat Armor at anything but Short range.
- Assualt Rifle (Auto) vs. Cloth at Close range, and Combat Armor at anything but Short range.
- LAG/DS vs. anything at Close range.
- LAG/HE vs. Cloth at Close range and Combat Armor at Close and Very Long ranges.
- LAG/Flech vs. Cloth at Close range and Combat Armor at Close and Very Long ranges.
- ACR/DS (single) vs. Cloth at Close Range and Combat Armor at Close and Very Long ranges.
- ACR/DS (auto) vs. Combat Armor at Close range.
- ACR/HE (single) vs. Cloth at Close, Long and Very Long ranges and Combat Armor at anything but Short range.
- ACR/HE (auto) vs. Cloth and Combat Armor at Close and Very Long ranges.
- Gauss Rifle (single) vs. Combat Armor at Close range.
- Accelerator Rifle (single) vs. anything at Close range and Mesh, Cloth, Ablat and Combat Armor at Short range.
- Accelerator Rifle (auto) vs. Ablat and Combat at Close range and Mesh, Cloth and Combat Armor at Short range.
- Snub Pistol/HE vs. anything at Medium range and Combat Armor at all ranges.
- Snub Pistol/HEAP vs. anything at Medium range.
- Snub Pistol/Tranq vs. Cloth at Close and Medium ranges and everything else at Medium range.
- RAM/HE (single) vs. Combat Armor at Very Long range.
- RAM/Flech (single) vs. Cloth and Combat Armor at Very Long range.
- RAM/HEAP (single) vs. Combat Armor at Very Long range.
- LMG vs. Cloth and Combat Armor at Short Range.

Auto Hits (External DM +0):
- Stinger vs. Nothing at all ranges and Jack at Close range.
- Thrasher vs. Nothing, Jack and Reflec at all ranges and Mesh, Cloth and Ablat at Close range.
- Cutlass vs. Nothing and Reflec at Short range.
- Broadsword vs. Nothing, Jack and Reflec at Short range.
- Autorifle vs. Nothing, Jack and Reflec at Short, Medium and Long ranges.
- Shotgun vs. Nothing, Jack and Reflec at Short and Medium ranges.
- SMG vs. Nothing, Jack and Reflec at Short and Medium ranges.
- Assault Rifle (auto) vs. Nothing, Jack and Reflec at Medium range.
- LAG/Flech vs. Nothing, Jack and Reflec at Short, Medium and Long ranges.
- ACR/DS (auto) vs. Nothing, Jack, Reflec and Ablat at Short, Medium and Long ranges.
- Gauss Rife (single) vs. Nothing, Jack, Reflec and Ablat at Medium and Long ranges.
- Gauss Rifle (auto) vs. Nothing, Jack, Mesh, Reflec and Ablat at all ranges but Close and Cloth at Medium and Long ranges.
- Accelerator Rifle (auto) vs. Nothing, Jack and Reflec at Medium and Long ranges and Ablat at Medium range.
- RAM/HE (single) vs. Nothing, Jack, Reflec and Ablat at Medium and Long ranges.
- RAM/HE (auto) vs. Nothing, Jack, Reflec and Ablat at all ranges and anything at Medium and Long ranges.
- RAM/Flech (single) vs. Nothing, Jack and Reflec at Medium and Long ranges and Mesh and Ablat at Medium range.
- RAM/Flech (auto) vs. Nothing, Jack and Reflec at all ranges and against Mesh and Ablat at Medium and Long ranges.
- RAM/HEAP (auto) vs. Nothing, Jack, Mesh, Reflec and Ablat at Medium and Long ranges and Combat Armor at Medium range.
- LMG vs. Nothing, Jack and Reflec at Medium, Long and Very Long ranges and vs. Mesh and Ablat at Medium range.
- Auto-Cannon/DS vs. ANYTHING AT ANY RANGE (!)
- Auto-Cannon/HE vs. ANYTHING AT ANY RANGE (!)
- PGMP-13/14 vs. Nothing, Jack, Mesh, Cloth, Reflec and Ablat at ALL RANGES.
- FGMP-14/15 vs. ANYTHING AT ANY RANGE (!)
- VRF Gauss Gun vs. ANYTHING AT ANY RANGE (!)

 

[tbeard1999]

Originally posted by Employee 2-4601:
In order to prevent turning the previous thread into a specific game-mechanic discussion, I've decided to start a discussion of LBB1/LBB4 combat probabilities to a new thread.

</font><blockquote>quote:</font><hr />Originally posted by tbeard1999:
... the CT combat system has some serious limitations when you (a) use military weaponry from Book 4; or (b) when you introduce Book 4+ characters who often have very high skill levels (it isn't uncommon in my experience for Mercenary characters to have 5+ levels of Combat Rifleman).

The result are weapons that hit *and* cause damage virtually automatically. I'm not a huge fan of this, and since my campaigns have lots of automatic weapons and gunfire, the CT system is particularly ill suited for me. Of course, the CT system works fine with Book 2 weaponry.

Under LBB1 combat, you hit on a modified result of 8+ on 2D. That's means that:

1) A total DM of -5 or more is an automatic miss.

2) A total DM of +6 or more is an automatic hit.
</font>[/QUOTE]This is technically true, although a total modifier of +3 means an extremely high change of hitting and wounding (83.33%) while a -2 means an extremely low chance of hitting and wounding.

This is one of the least admirable qualities of the vaunted bell curve, in my opinion. A relatively modest shift in the roll can have huge statistical consequences.

Both auto-hits and auto-misses aren't nescerily bad - Combat Armor SHOULD stop alot of attack types, and a grizzeled veteran (Rifle-3) SHOULD be able to hit a man at 5m in full-auto - but I want to see what the limits actually are.

The problem is that the CT "to hit" roll is also the penetration roll. I agree that an expert rifleman should be able to hit a target most of the time (although the evidence from real world combat doesn't necessarily support this). But I am less willing to allow him to radically increase his chance of penetrating armor. While it is theoretically true that purported "weak spots" can be picked out, I am skeptical that this can occur without a shooter taking very careful aim and/or standing still. In any case, the statistics are depressing. At the end of the day, it's way too easy to get effectively automatic hits in CT.

It is interesting, by the way, to consider real world gun combat examples when talking about RPGs. In the famous Gunfight at the OK Corral, 20-30 shots were fired, mostly from pistols at 10 feet or less. There were 9 hits (not including the shotgun blast that hit Tom McClaury), implying an overall hit rate of abour 30-50%. However, the real "to hit" percentage might be lower, as Billy Clanton was hit 5 times in rapid succession (he may not have been dodging effectively after the first hit) and Tom McClaury was shot once while collapsing from the shotgun blast. In CT (and Striker) these men would have hit their target 83% of the time (5+ on 2d), before adding any skill or advantageous DEX modifiers.

Frank Chadwick, in "Lethality in Roleplaying Small Arms Systems", he analyzes a number of gun battles between US police and Mexican gangs on the US/Mexico border. They were using revolvers and a few shotguns. Some interesting conclusions:

--US police fired 90 shots and hit with 29.

--a "...total of fifteen officers and suspects were wounded ...and they were hit by a total of 32 bullets. Most of the injured men were struck by a single bullet; four were struck by multiple bullets, and of these one was struck by eight bullets. Of these fifteen casualties, 2 were killed almost instantly while the other thirteen survived and recovered. All of those who suffered multiple gunshot wounds recovered. That is, none of the fatalities were caused by a cumulative build-up of trauma, but rather were due to a single, almost instantly fatal, wound."

--In terms of fatality, only 1 of the 11 chest wounds were fatal (!), the single head wound was fatal, and none of the 4 abdomen wounds were fatal.

--Ty

 

[tbeard1999]

Originally posted by Employee 2-4601:
In order to prevent turning the previous thread into a specific game-mechanic discussion, I've decided to start a discussion of LBB1/LBB4 combat probabilities to a new thread.

</font><blockquote>quote:</font><hr />Originally posted by tbeard1999:
... the CT combat system has some serious limitations when you (a) use military weaponry from Book 4; or (b) when you introduce Book 4+ characters who often have very high skill levels (it isn't uncommon in my experience for Mercenary characters to have 5+ levels of Combat Rifleman).

The result are weapons that hit *and* cause damage virtually automatically. I'm not a huge fan of this, and since my campaigns have lots of automatic weapons and gunfire, the CT system is particularly ill suited for me. Of course, the CT system works fine with Book 2 weaponry.

Under LBB1 combat, you hit on a modified result of 8+ on 2D. That's means that:

1) A total DM of -5 or more is an automatic miss.

2) A total DM of +6 or more is an automatic hit.
</font>[/QUOTE]This is technically true, although a total modifier of +3 means an extremely high change of hitting and wounding (83.33%) while a -2 means an extremely low chance of hitting and wounding.

This is one of the least admirable qualities of the vaunted bell curve, in my opinion. A relatively modest shift in the roll can have huge statistical consequences.

Both auto-hits and auto-misses aren't nescerily bad - Combat Armor SHOULD stop alot of attack types, and a grizzeled veteran (Rifle-3) SHOULD be able to hit a man at 5m in full-auto - but I want to see what the limits actually are.

The problem is that the CT "to hit" roll is also the penetration roll. I agree that an expert rifleman should be able to hit a target most of the time (although the evidence from real world combat doesn't necessarily support this). But I am less willing to allow him to radically increase his chance of penetrating armor. While it is theoretically true that purported "weak spots" can be picked out, I am skeptical that this can occur without a shooter taking very careful aim and/or standing still. In any case, the statistics are depressing. At the end of the day, it's way too easy to get effectively automatic hits in CT.

It is interesting, by the way, to consider real world gun combat examples when talking about RPGs. In the famous Gunfight at the OK Corral, 20-30 shots were fired, mostly from pistols at 10 feet or less. There were 9 hits (not including the shotgun blast that hit Tom McClaury), implying an overall hit rate of abour 30-50%. However, the real "to hit" percentage might be lower, as Billy Clanton was hit 5 times in rapid succession (he may not have been dodging effectively after the first hit) and Tom McClaury was shot once while collapsing from the shotgun blast. In CT (and Striker) these men would have hit their target 83% of the time (5+ on 2d), before adding any skill or advantageous DEX modifiers.

Frank Chadwick, in "Lethality in Roleplaying Small Arms Systems", he analyzes a number of gun battles between US police and Mexican gangs on the US/Mexico border. They were using revolvers and a few shotguns. Some interesting conclusions:

--US police fired 90 shots and hit with 29.

--a "...total of fifteen officers and suspects were wounded ...and they were hit by a total of 32 bullets. Most of the injured men were struck by a single bullet; four were struck by multiple bullets, and of these one was struck by eight bullets. Of these fifteen casualties, 2 were killed almost instantly while the other thirteen survived and recovered. All of those who suffered multiple gunshot wounds recovered. That is, none of the fatalities were caused by a cumulative build-up of trauma, but rather were due to a single, almost instantly fatal, wound."

--In terms of fatality, only 1 of the 11 chest wounds were fatal (!), the single head wound was fatal, and none of the 4 abdomen wounds were fatal.

--Ty

 

[Golan2072]

Originally posted by tbeard1999:
I agree that an expert rifleman should be able to hit a target most of the time (although the evidence from real world combat doesn't necessarily support this).

At a long range, probably not (unless we're talking about an expert sniper using good optics); but I was talking about Short range, which is 5m away, and about autofire - how likely is a trained soldier to miss at this distance when autofiring?

Originally posted by tbeard1999:
At the end of the day, it's way too easy to get effectively automatic hits in CT.

I completely agree with you - WAAAAAAAAAAAY too easy. Some high-end weapons just hit all of the time even when adverse conditions apply.

Originally posted by tbeard1999:
It is interesting, by the way, to consider real world gun combat examples when talking about RPGs. In the famous Gunfight at the OK Corral, 20-30 shots were fired, mostly from pistols at 10 feet or less. There were 9 hits (not including the shotgun blast that hit Tom McClaury), implying an overall hit rate of abour 30-50%. However, the real "to hit" percentage might be lower, as Billy Clanton was hit 5 times in rapid succession (he may not have been dodging effectively after the first hit) and Tom McClaury was shot once while collapsing from the shotgun blast. In CT (and Striker) these men would have hit their target 83% of the time (5+ on 2d), before adding any skill or advantageous DEX modifiers.

Won't this be a roll of 8+ on 2D in Striker (42% chance to hit)? I mean, the targets were at an effective range, and no auto-fire bonus applies. Am I missing a DM (assuming a Recruit and no DEX DM)?

Originally posted by tbeard1999:
--US police fired 90 shots and hit with 29.

Hmmm... I wonder if these numbers would differ if the weapons used would've been automatic rifles fired from the shoulder (or when prone)...

Originally posted by tbeard1999:
--a "...total of fifteen officers and suspects were wounded ...and they were hit by a total of 32 bullets. Most of the injured men were struck by a single bullet; four were struck by multiple bullets, and of these one was struck by eight bullets. Of these fifteen casualties, 2 were killed almost instantly while the other thirteen survived and recovered. All of those who suffered multiple gunshot wounds recovered. That is, none of the fatalities were caused by a cumulative build-up of trauma, but rather were due to a single, almost instantly fatal, wound."

--In terms of fatality, only 1 of the 11 chest wounds were fatal (!), the single head wound was fatal, and none of the 4 abdomen wounds were fatal.

This seems to support Striker combat and "abstract" Striker wounding

 

[Golan2072]

Originally posted by tbeard1999:
I agree that an expert rifleman should be able to hit a target most of the time (although the evidence from real world combat doesn't necessarily support this).

At a long range, probably not (unless we're talking about an expert sniper using good optics); but I was talking about Short range, which is 5m away, and about autofire - how likely is a trained soldier to miss at this distance when autofiring?

Originally posted by tbeard1999:
At the end of the day, it's way too easy to get effectively automatic hits in CT.

I completely agree with you - WAAAAAAAAAAAY too easy. Some high-end weapons just hit all of the time even when adverse conditions apply.

Originally posted by tbeard1999:
It is interesting, by the way, to consider real world gun combat examples when talking about RPGs. In the famous Gunfight at the OK Corral, 20-30 shots were fired, mostly from pistols at 10 feet or less. There were 9 hits (not including the shotgun blast that hit Tom McClaury), implying an overall hit rate of abour 30-50%. However, the real "to hit" percentage might be lower, as Billy Clanton was hit 5 times in rapid succession (he may not have been dodging effectively after the first hit) and Tom McClaury was shot once while collapsing from the shotgun blast. In CT (and Striker) these men would have hit their target 83% of the time (5+ on 2d), before adding any skill or advantageous DEX modifiers.

Won't this be a roll of 8+ on 2D in Striker (42% chance to hit)? I mean, the targets were at an effective range, and no auto-fire bonus applies. Am I missing a DM (assuming a Recruit and no DEX DM)?

Originally posted by tbeard1999:
--US police fired 90 shots and hit with 29.

Hmmm... I wonder if these numbers would differ if the weapons used would've been automatic rifles fired from the shoulder (or when prone)...

Originally posted by tbeard1999:
--a "...total of fifteen officers and suspects were wounded ...and they were hit by a total of 32 bullets. Most of the injured men were struck by a single bullet; four were struck by multiple bullets, and of these one was struck by eight bullets. Of these fifteen casualties, 2 were killed almost instantly while the other thirteen survived and recovered. All of those who suffered multiple gunshot wounds recovered. That is, none of the fatalities were caused by a cumulative build-up of trauma, but rather were due to a single, almost instantly fatal, wound."

--In terms of fatality, only 1 of the 11 chest wounds were fatal (!), the single head wound was fatal, and none of the 4 abdomen wounds were fatal.

This seems to support Striker combat and "abstract" Striker wounding

 

[tbeard1999]

At a long range, probably not (unless we're talking about an expert sniper using good optics); but I was talking about Short range, which is 5m away, and about autofire - how likely is a trained soldier to miss at this distance when autofiring?

Apparently, it's far more difficult to hit a target than we usually imagine. That makes sense, really. Most of us have never been in combat, so we draw our conclusions from the movies, even if only subconsciously. Movies, for many reasons -- drama, time, audience taste, etc. -- show gun fire as far more effective than in real life. Come to think of it, *everything* seems faster, more decisive, etc., in the movies...

Note the article and gunfight I cited -- about a 30% hit chance at point blank range, and this from experienced shooters. I think that's a fair baseline.

I completely agree with you - WAAAAAAAAAAAY too easy. Some high-end weapons just hit all of the time even when adverse conditions apply.

Yes, there are even mindbenders like "roll a negative 2 or better on 2 dice..."

Won't this be a roll of 8+ on 2D in Striker (42% chance to hit)? I mean, the targets were at an effective range, and no auto-fire bonus applies. Am I missing a DM (assuming a Recruit and no DEX DM)?

I changed my assumptions and failed to harmonize my statement, so my bad. In Striker, they would hit on an 8+ like you say.

Hmmm... I wonder if these numbers would differ if the weapons used would've been automatic rifles fired from the shoulder (or when prone)...

My conversations with trained soldiers indicates to me that the main use of automatic weapons is to suppress the target. In Iraq, journalists can easily tell the difference between US professional soldiers and terrorist rabble because the US troops fire single shots.

Still, you'd have to imagine that there's a higher chance of hitting a target with a 3 shot burst, but only if the recoil from the first shot didn't spoil the aim.

Chadwick evolved his thinking on gun combat and in the GDW house system, gun combat skill had little to do with effectiveness of automatic weapon fire. You essentially rolled a bucketful of d10s (nominally 1 per shot fired) and hit on a 10. So it was quite possible that a highly skilled shooter would choose semiautomatic fire.

Striker's autofire mechanics are so smooth that I've never been moved to change them, despite the fact that my own (admittedly limited) conversations with trained riflemen backs up Chadwick's theory.

Originally posted by tbeard1999:
--a "...total of fifteen officers and suspects were wounded ...and they were hit by a total of 32 bullets. Most of the injured men were struck by a single bullet; four were struck by multiple bullets, and of these one was struck by eight bullets. Of these fifteen casualties, 2 were killed almost instantly while the other thirteen survived and recovered. All of those who suffered multiple gunshot wounds recovered. That is, none of the fatalities were caused by a cumulative build-up of trauma, but rather were due to a single, almost instantly fatal, wound."

--In terms of fatality, only 1 of the 11 chest wounds were fatal (!), the single head wound was fatal, and none of the 4 abdomen wounds were fatal.

This seems to support Striker combat and "abstract" Striker wounding

[/QB]

Yep. I've done a fair amount of research on small arms combat in designing my modern wargame rules (A Fistful of TOWs) and I came to the conclusion that Chadwick is right -- hit points are a lousy way to represent damage in firefights.

--Ty

 

[tbeard1999]

At a long range, probably not (unless we're talking about an expert sniper using good optics); but I was talking about Short range, which is 5m away, and about autofire - how likely is a trained soldier to miss at this distance when autofiring?

Apparently, it's far more difficult to hit a target than we usually imagine. That makes sense, really. Most of us have never been in combat, so we draw our conclusions from the movies, even if only subconsciously. Movies, for many reasons -- drama, time, audience taste, etc. -- show gun fire as far more effective than in real life. Come to think of it, *everything* seems faster, more decisive, etc., in the movies...

Note the article and gunfight I cited -- about a 30% hit chance at point blank range, and this from experienced shooters. I think that's a fair baseline.

I completely agree with you - WAAAAAAAAAAAY too easy. Some high-end weapons just hit all of the time even when adverse conditions apply.

Yes, there are even mindbenders like "roll a negative 2 or better on 2 dice..."

Won't this be a roll of 8+ on 2D in Striker (42% chance to hit)? I mean, the targets were at an effective range, and no auto-fire bonus applies. Am I missing a DM (assuming a Recruit and no DEX DM)?

I changed my assumptions and failed to harmonize my statement, so my bad. In Striker, they would hit on an 8+ like you say.

Hmmm... I wonder if these numbers would differ if the weapons used would've been automatic rifles fired from the shoulder (or when prone)...

My conversations with trained soldiers indicates to me that the main use of automatic weapons is to suppress the target. In Iraq, journalists can easily tell the difference between US professional soldiers and terrorist rabble because the US troops fire single shots.

Still, you'd have to imagine that there's a higher chance of hitting a target with a 3 shot burst, but only if the recoil from the first shot didn't spoil the aim.

Chadwick evolved his thinking on gun combat and in the GDW house system, gun combat skill had little to do with effectiveness of automatic weapon fire. You essentially rolled a bucketful of d10s (nominally 1 per shot fired) and hit on a 10. So it was quite possible that a highly skilled shooter would choose semiautomatic fire.

Striker's autofire mechanics are so smooth that I've never been moved to change them, despite the fact that my own (admittedly limited) conversations with trained riflemen backs up Chadwick's theory.

Originally posted by tbeard1999:
--a "...total of fifteen officers and suspects were wounded ...and they were hit by a total of 32 bullets. Most of the injured men were struck by a single bullet; four were struck by multiple bullets, and of these one was struck by eight bullets. Of these fifteen casualties, 2 were killed almost instantly while the other thirteen survived and recovered. All of those who suffered multiple gunshot wounds recovered. That is, none of the fatalities were caused by a cumulative build-up of trauma, but rather were due to a single, almost instantly fatal, wound."

--In terms of fatality, only 1 of the 11 chest wounds were fatal (!), the single head wound was fatal, and none of the 4 abdomen wounds were fatal.

This seems to support Striker combat and "abstract" Striker wounding

[/QB]

Yep. I've done a fair amount of research on small arms combat in designing my modern wargame rules (A Fistful of TOWs) and I came to the conclusion that Chadwick is right -- hit points are a lousy way to represent damage in firefights.

--Ty

 

[Supplement Four]

Originally posted by tbeard1999:
Yep. I've done a fair amount of research on small arms combat in designing my modern wargame rules (A Fistful of TOWs) and I came to the conclusion that Chadwick is right -- hit points are a lousy way to represent damage in firefights.

Three Comments:

(1) Remember that "hit points" in CT aren't just abstract hit points as they are in the d20 system. In CT, loosing hit points also means degraded ability (your STR is lower, or your DEX, or END).

If you get hit for 10 points of damage under the d20 system, there's no effect on your character if he's still got at least 1 hit point.

If you get hit for 5 points of damage under the CT system, it can have vast consequences for your character in that maybe you're no longer getting your DEX bonus to-hit, or anything you do DEX related (given that DEX took the 5 point hit) will not succeed near as well as it did when your DEX was full.

(2) CT also has built in stop-gaps. A character with physical stats 777 has a total of 21 "hit points". But, once this character looses 7 points to one stat, he's unconscious. If he looses 14 points total, he's seriously wounded.

Compare that to a d20 character with 21 "normal" hit points. That character can take a 7, 14, or even a 20 point hit and be as good as new--as good as he was before being damaged.

My point being: CT "hit points" also include wound effects where as games with standard hit points do not.

(3) Lastly, I am in favor of removing hit points all-together. I want the bookkeeping to disappear.

I like systems where, if you take a certain amount of damage, you're stunned or dazed for a bit. If you take more damage, you're scratched/cut/lightly wounded. Even more damage means you've got a moderate wound. Then if damage reaches another threshold, you're seriously wounded. Then, if damage reaches a big number, the character is dead.

This way, you're not keeping track of hit points.

But, also note, you've got an extra job now: You've got to implement some type of wound effects (if you're moderately wounded, you take these penalties).

CT is very clean in the way it combines this step with hit points, and it's hard to ignore how well the system incorporates that step.

 

[Supplement Four]

Originally posted by tbeard1999:
Yep. I've done a fair amount of research on small arms combat in designing my modern wargame rules (A Fistful of TOWs) and I came to the conclusion that Chadwick is right -- hit points are a lousy way to represent damage in firefights.

Three Comments:

(1) Remember that "hit points" in CT aren't just abstract hit points as they are in the d20 system. In CT, loosing hit points also means degraded ability (your STR is lower, or your DEX, or END).

If you get hit for 10 points of damage under the d20 system, there's no effect on your character if he's still got at least 1 hit point.

If you get hit for 5 points of damage under the CT system, it can have vast consequences for your character in that maybe you're no longer getting your DEX bonus to-hit, or anything you do DEX related (given that DEX took the 5 point hit) will not succeed near as well as it did when your DEX was full.

(2) CT also has built in stop-gaps. A character with physical stats 777 has a total of 21 "hit points". But, once this character looses 7 points to one stat, he's unconscious. If he looses 14 points total, he's seriously wounded.

Compare that to a d20 character with 21 "normal" hit points. That character can take a 7, 14, or even a 20 point hit and be as good as new--as good as he was before being damaged.

My point being: CT "hit points" also include wound effects where as games with standard hit points do not.

(3) Lastly, I am in favor of removing hit points all-together. I want the bookkeeping to disappear.

I like systems where, if you take a certain amount of damage, you're stunned or dazed for a bit. If you take more damage, you're scratched/cut/lightly wounded. Even more damage means you've got a moderate wound. Then if damage reaches another threshold, you're seriously wounded. Then, if damage reaches a big number, the character is dead.

This way, you're not keeping track of hit points.

But, also note, you've got an extra job now: You've got to implement some type of wound effects (if you're moderately wounded, you take these penalties).

CT is very clean in the way it combines this step with hit points, and it's hard to ignore how well the system incorporates that step.

 

[Supplement Four]

Originally posted by tbeard1999:
The problem is that the CT "to hit" roll is also the penetration roll.

I've been considering all this with my new system.

(Interesting thread, btw.)

Let's say a dude picks up a M-16 and fires it, semi-automatic, at a target at Medium Range.

Under my new system, this is how this shot will be played out...

</font><blockquote>code:</font><hr /><pre style="font-size:x-small; font-family: monospace;">ATTACK ROLL (8+ needed to-hit)
+n 2D Attack Roll
+n Skill
+/-n DEX Weapon Adjustment Modifier
+/-n Range Modifier
-----
= TAR Total Attack Roll</pre>[/QUOTE]As you can see, this will end in a lot of "hits"...many attack will even be automatic hits (barring a Critical Failure roll) when DMs are high.

BUT, under this new system I'm using, an 8+ roll on the Attack Roll only means that the attack has a possibility of hitting. The defender still gets a chance to evade.

HIT LOCATION: The GM rolls for Hit Location. If the part of the target is covered, and the shot hits the covered part of the body, then the attack fails.

</font><blockquote>code:</font><hr /><pre style="font-size:x-small; font-family: monospace;">DEFENSE ROLL (TAR+ needed to evade attack)
+n 2D Defense Roll
+n Evasion Modifier (Based on Range)
+n DEX UGM High Natural Ability Modifier
+n Cover Modifier (if using cover)
+n Speed Modifier (if moving)
-----
= TDR Total Defense Roll</pre>[/QUOTE]

 

[Supplement Four]

Originally posted by tbeard1999:
The problem is that the CT "to hit" roll is also the penetration roll.

I've been considering all this with my new system.

(Interesting thread, btw.)

Let's say a dude picks up a M-16 and fires it, semi-automatic, at a target at Medium Range.

Under my new system, this is how this shot will be played out...

</font><blockquote>code:</font><hr /><pre style="font-size:x-small; font-family: monospace;">ATTACK ROLL (8+ needed to-hit)
+n 2D Attack Roll
+n Skill
+/-n DEX Weapon Adjustment Modifier
+/-n Range Modifier
-----
= TAR Total Attack Roll</pre>[/QUOTE]As you can see, this will end in a lot of "hits"...many attack will even be automatic hits (barring a Critical Failure roll) when DMs are high.

BUT, under this new system I'm using, an 8+ roll on the Attack Roll only means that the attack has a possibility of hitting. The defender still gets a chance to evade.

HIT LOCATION: The GM rolls for Hit Location. If the part of the target is covered, and the shot hits the covered part of the body, then the attack fails.

</font><blockquote>code:</font><hr /><pre style="font-size:x-small; font-family: monospace;">DEFENSE ROLL (TAR+ needed to evade attack)
+n 2D Defense Roll
+n Evasion Modifier (Based on Range)
+n DEX UGM High Natural Ability Modifier
+n Cover Modifier (if using cover)
+n Speed Modifier (if moving)
-----
= TDR Total Defense Roll</pre>[/QUOTE]

 

[Supplement Four]

Originally posted by Supplement Four:
I've been considering all this with my new system.

Let's do an example. I'll roll real dice as I write. And, I'll use characters from the Traveller Adventure. The same scenario as above.

Gvoudzon, 788766, fires a single semi-automatic shot at retired merchant captain Freezon with his autorfile.

Gvoudzon's skill: Rifle-1.

</font><blockquote>code:</font><hr /><pre style="font-size:x-small; font-family: monospace;">GVOUDZON's ATTACK ROLL (8+ needed to hit)
+10 2D Attack Roll
+1 Gvoudzon's Skill
+1 DEX Weapon Modifier
+0 Rifle @ Medium Range
----
= 12 Total Attack Roll</pre>[/QUOTE]This shot has the potential to hit since the total is 8+.

Freezon is 22 meters away, crouched over the engine compartment of a grounded air/raft. The vehicle is providing Freezon with cover over the lower part of his body, waist down.

The GM rolls hit location, resulting in a hit to Freezon's lower right arm.

Freezon, 5A7B98, is allowed a Defense Roll.

</font><blockquote>code:</font><hr /><pre style="font-size:x-small; font-family: monospace;">FREEZON's DEFENSE ROLL (12+ needed to evade)
+8 2D Defense Roll
+2 Evasion @ Medium Range
+1 DEX UGM High Natural Ability bonus
+4 Cover from the air/raft
+0 Speed Modifier (Speed-0, stationary)
----
= 15 Total Defense Roll</pre>[/QUOTE]As the Defense Roll is greater than the Attack Roll, Freezon successfully evades Gvoudzon's attack. The bullet richoets of the air/raft (or flys past Freezon's ear...or whatever the GM describes).

Note that, had the shot hit, Armor would modifiy the damage roll, absorbing some of the damage (if Freezon is wearing armor that protects his arms).

It's still got some kinks, but that's the basics of the system I'm working on.

 

[Supplement Four]

Originally posted by Supplement Four:
I've been considering all this with my new system.

Let's do an example. I'll roll real dice as I write. And, I'll use characters from the Traveller Adventure. The same scenario as above.

Gvoudzon, 788766, fires a single semi-automatic shot at retired merchant captain Freezon with his autorfile.

Gvoudzon's skill: Rifle-1.

</font><blockquote>code:</font><hr /><pre style="font-size:x-small; font-family: monospace;">GVOUDZON's ATTACK ROLL (8+ needed to hit)
+10 2D Attack Roll
+1 Gvoudzon's Skill
+1 DEX Weapon Modifier
+0 Rifle @ Medium Range
----
= 12 Total Attack Roll</pre>[/QUOTE]This shot has the potential to hit since the total is 8+.

Freezon is 22 meters away, crouched over the engine compartment of a grounded air/raft. The vehicle is providing Freezon with cover over the lower part of his body, waist down.

The GM rolls hit location, resulting in a hit to Freezon's lower right arm.

Freezon, 5A7B98, is allowed a Defense Roll.

</font><blockquote>code:</font><hr /><pre style="font-size:x-small; font-family: monospace;">FREEZON's DEFENSE ROLL (12+ needed to evade)
+8 2D Defense Roll
+2 Evasion @ Medium Range
+1 DEX UGM High Natural Ability bonus
+4 Cover from the air/raft
+0 Speed Modifier (Speed-0, stationary)
----
= 15 Total Defense Roll</pre>[/QUOTE]As the Defense Roll is greater than the Attack Roll, Freezon successfully evades Gvoudzon's attack. The bullet richoets of the air/raft (or flys past Freezon's ear...or whatever the GM describes).

Note that, had the shot hit, Armor would modifiy the damage roll, absorbing some of the damage (if Freezon is wearing armor that protects his arms).

It's still got some kinks, but that's the basics of the system I'm working on.

 

[Ptah]

Interesting, as always, so is that 3 rolls to resolve 1 attack? And what if the GM had rolled a head or thigh hit, any different resolution?

 

[Ptah]

Interesting, as always, so is that 3 rolls to resolve 1 attack? And what if the GM had rolled a head or thigh hit, any different resolution?

 

[Supplement Four]

Originally posted by Ptah:
Interesting, as always, so is that 3 rolls to resolve 1 attack? And what if the GM had rolled a head or thigh hit, any different resolution?

I'm going back and forth on that. The third roll is the Hit Location. I stuck that in there to make it even harder for characters to be shot--since damage being shot is very deadly. I may remove the Hit Location, or resolve it another way...still pondering.

Of course, a fourth roll is damage. Armor will modify damage. So, even if shot, if an armored location is hit, the armor can absorb much of the damage.

Damage: All gunshots apply all damage to one stat at random, just like the first blood rule (making this system very deadly if you get shot). All blade/brawling attacks apply damage in groups of a single die as per normal CT rules.

I am going to make some parts of the body do more damage, and some less.

I was thinking: Head is +1D damage.

Arms: -1D damage.

Torso/Legs: Unmodified Damage.

It still got some kinks, but that's the broad strokes.

Oh...

Also, I allow up to three attacks in my game. If using autofire, that's six attacks, using Panic Fire (3 attacks @ 2 attack rolls each for autofire).

I'm thinking of doing all the attacks first (in the interest of speed of gameplay), then only rolling one defense roll against all the attacks.

So, let's say in our example above, Gvoudson uses his M-16 on full auto, using the Panic Fire rule.

Well, he'd get 6 attack throws, provided he had enough ammo (he'd need enough for 3 autofire bursts with the weapon).

Gvoudzon would roll all three attacks.

Then, once he was done, we'd roll a single defense roll against all the attacks.

If Gvoudzon's totals were: 5, 8, 10, 12, 13, 11.

And Freezon's defense roll was: 11

That would mean Gvoudzon scored two hits (the 12 and 13).

That should be a lot quicker than having Freezon roll defense against all six attacks.

 

[Supplement Four]

Originally posted by Ptah:
Interesting, as always, so is that 3 rolls to resolve 1 attack? And what if the GM had rolled a head or thigh hit, any different resolution?

I'm going back and forth on that. The third roll is the Hit Location. I stuck that in there to make it even harder for characters to be shot--since damage being shot is very deadly. I may remove the Hit Location, or resolve it another way...still pondering.

Of course, a fourth roll is damage. Armor will modify damage. So, even if shot, if an armored location is hit, the armor can absorb much of the damage.

Damage: All gunshots apply all damage to one stat at random, just like the first blood rule (making this system very deadly if you get shot). All blade/brawling attacks apply damage in groups of a single die as per normal CT rules.

I am going to make some parts of the body do more damage, and some less.

I was thinking: Head is +1D damage.

Arms: -1D damage.

Torso/Legs: Unmodified Damage.

It still got some kinks, but that's the broad strokes.

Oh...

Also, I allow up to three attacks in my game. If using autofire, that's six attacks, using Panic Fire (3 attacks @ 2 attack rolls each for autofire).

I'm thinking of doing all the attacks first (in the interest of speed of gameplay), then only rolling one defense roll against all the attacks.

So, let's say in our example above, Gvoudson uses his M-16 on full auto, using the Panic Fire rule.

Well, he'd get 6 attack throws, provided he had enough ammo (he'd need enough for 3 autofire bursts with the weapon).

Gvoudzon would roll all three attacks.

Then, once he was done, we'd roll a single defense roll against all the attacks.

If Gvoudzon's totals were: 5, 8, 10, 12, 13, 11.

And Freezon's defense roll was: 11

That would mean Gvoudzon scored two hits (the 12 and 13).

That should be a lot quicker than having Freezon roll defense against all six attacks.

 

[Ptah]

I like that last idea. It even makes sense to me to use 1 defense roll. One way I see to speed this up is to throw the hit location dice with the attack/to hit dice. I'm not sure what you are using for hit location.

There are nice specialty 12-sided dice that have "head" "torso" etc. written on the faces.

Get a dozen of those and your set. There is always the old stand-by of different colors, easy to implement with 6-siders.

 

[Ptah]

I like that last idea. It even makes sense to me to use 1 defense roll. One way I see to speed this up is to throw the hit location dice with the attack/to hit dice. I'm not sure what you are using for hit location.

There are nice specialty 12-sided dice that have "head" "torso" etc. written on the faces.

Get a dozen of those and your set. There is always the old stand-by of different colors, easy to implement with 6-siders.