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Manchuria, hegemon of the Chinese Arm

rfmcdpei

SOC-12
While I was looking over 2320 earlier this week, I realized than Manchuria dominates the Chinese Arm more thoroughly than any of the ESA powers, even the French, dominated the French Arm. *

By 2320, Manchuria possesses six colony worlds (Cold Mountain, Syuhlahm, Chengdu, Haifeng, Kwantung, Dukou) with a combined Manchurian population in the 55-65M range, and many more outposts aside. Of the five most populous worlds (Chengdu, Kwantung, Daikoku, Heidelsheimat, Cold Mountain) Manchuria has substantial colonies on three. Perhaps most importantly, Manchuria has an enviable position with the Sung, and the billions of Stark. All these advantages easily places Manchuria far ahead of its local rivals.

- Texas has a bit more than four million people on three worlds, but is lumbering towards financial collapse.

- Brazil has a million people on Paulo and INAP 10-12 million on Kwantung and Montana, but these two Latin American starfaring powers are faced with long supply lines absent the development of tugs and a pretty destructive mutual hostility. As for the Incans, the less said about their potential the better.

- The Canadians, working in collaboration with the Scandinavians and the Sung, have managed to start the colonization of the Canadian Finger, but their worlds are settled only recently and are still relatively lightly settled, to say nothing of a hideously long and vulnerable supply line.

- The Japanese and the Arabians have reasonably large colonies on Daikoku, the Life Foundation its own on Austin's World, and the Cantonese their own colony on Syuhlahm, but each of these colonies are relatively isolated and hence vulnerable. In Arabia's case, it's a minor wonder that it hasn't managed to overextend itself on the model of Texas.

- Heidelsheimat is a self-sustaining and reasonably prosperous new nation, but it's still only one nation on one planet and has to deal with a pointless rivalry with the Texans besides.

A combination capable of defeating Manchuria doesn't seem likely. Even if all of the human powers on the arm were somehow combined, internal rivalries (INAP versus Brazil and maybe Yexas, Heidelsheimat versus Texas) would quickly tear this coalition apart. Compare this to the situation on the French Arm, where the three major powers manage to counterbalance each other, at least until the War of German Reunification and the Kafer War.

A lot depended on the success or failure of the Japanese colony on Cold Mountain. The Japanese had a viable supply line via the French and Japanese outposts, and if the colony had been successful perhaps we might have been talking about a Japanese Arm, The Japanese colony failed, however, and Manchuria took the initiative to establish a colony on Delta Pavonis' garden world with brute force methods. I'm tempted to believe that afterwards, the Manchurians took the initiative and actively planned to establish themselves as the locally dominant power.

Consider. Even before Manchuria paused to build up its colony on Syuhlahm, a world on the dead-end finger to 82 Eridani, it had aggressively explored further along the Chinese Arm (Chengdu was found in 2182, near two decades before the French had set up shop on Beowulf), eventually establishing highly successful colonies on Chengdu and Kwantung, outposts later upgraded to colonies on Dukou and Haifeng, and numerous outposts elsewhere. I'm also inclined to believe that Manchurian military vessels played a dominant role in the Slaver War (could the Canadians really have had that much military force deep in the Chinese Arm?). The Manchurians are also able to enforce fairly strict regulations on exchanges with the Eber on Komoran.

How does Manchuria manage? At least on the Chinese Arm, Manchuria but through its open and highly collaborative approach with other countries. It has established itself as an open, friendly, and highly collaborative power. thrpough its benevolence. With a substantial Manchurian infrastructure for--among other things--fuelling and repairing starships built up on the Chinese Arm, different starfaring powers were able to build up colonies in distant areas of the Arm in the late 23rd century: INAP and Brazil were able to establish their colonies on the Latin Finger, Canada its colonies on the Canadian Finger, the Life Foundation its Austin World colony, and the Incans and Texans their colonies all over the Arm. The Japanese and Arabians of Daikoku and the Cantonese of Syuhlahm have shorter supply lines, but these colonies' well-being depend on Manchurian benevolence. As for Heidelsheimat, I can only imagine that it was established during a period of ESA-Manchuria detente, and that the Bavarian colony was protected during the Central Asian War by some sort of bargain ("You leave Tunghu alone and we'll not bother Heidelsheimat?"). Heidelsheimat's independence likely pleases the Manchurians. We also know that Manchuria is doing a better job getting along with the Sung than Canada, perhaps because their relationship with Korea predisposes them to understand this sort of hierarchy.

How does Manchuria plan to reinforce its dominance of the Arm? I suggest that Chengdu is key, that the Manchurians are cultivating the world as the capital world of the Chinese Arm. Not only does it have a central location, it has a liberal regime, a cosmopolitan population, and an explicit goal of becoming an educational centre. It might not be wrong to think of Chengdu as the uber-Singapore of this area of space.

Stutterwarp tugs or drive-retuning stations that could connect the Latin Finger directly to the Core could challenge Manchuria, but not necessarily by that much. Many of the more distant Manchurian colonies (Kwantung in particular, also the minor Dukou and Haifeng) would really benefit from easier contact to the Core, and any advantage that INAP and Brazil could gain from easier transport could be counteracted by the easier transfer of Argentine-Brazilian hostility to a Latin Finger that could now enjoy full-scale interstellar wars.

I'm not imaginative enough at this time of the morning to offer specific suggestions for adventures. I do feel relatively confident in suggesting that Manchurian influences will be inescapable. Manchurian/Putonghua may well be cultivated as a major lingua franca throughout the arm, manufactures from Manchuria and the Manchurian colonies will be everywhere, people will be intimately familiar with events in Manchurian (and Korean?) politics and popular culture, and so on. I'd be inclined to bet that players who like Firefly might really like the Chinese Arm, especially if they're venturing force among the Texans. ;-)

Thoughts?

* The American Arm doesn't count in this sort of comparison, given its small size and its intensive colonization by only two, culturally quite similar, powers over a century. The presence of a few tens of thousands of Nigerians on Avalon won't change things. Maybe, just maybe, if there was an influx from an ethnically diverse New Canberra this might change, but until then ...
 
Sounds about right. Manchuria controls the infrastructure and gathers (sort of) rent from the local colonies. Since the countries with colonies on the arm are less willing to risk conflict with Manchuria it also stabilizes Earth politics - likely worth quite sizeable colonial investments.

The real nightmare for Manchuria would be increased colonial independence among its colonies on the arm - so that has to be stopped at any cost. Getting tugships would likely just make the arm richer and easier to control, so that might be a high priority.

I wonder if they have secretly bought part of the Heidelsheimat government? That might explain some of the odd things going on there.
 
Manchuria largely controls most star travel along the arm, either by controlling the ships, or by controlling the fueling depots. As an example, the survey ship that discovered and charted Kanata was a Manchurian vessel chartered by the Canadians, and a similar pattern can be found in many of the worlds colonized along the Chinese Arm.
Manchuria goes out of its way to be indispensable to everyone on the arm, and largely control access to the Sung, Xiang, and Ebers. Friendly, helpful, with more planetary control cruisers than anyone else...

In the Slaver War, Canada contributed 2 frigates, a troop carrier (converted liner), and a couple of supply vessels.
 
The real nightmare for Manchuria would be increased colonial independence among its colonies on the arm - so that has to be stopped at any cost. Getting tugships would likely just make the arm richer and easier to control, so that might be a high priority.

INAP might be a preferred partner, if only because of the Manchurian-Mexican co-existence on Kwantung and a shared antipathy to the ESA powers.

I wonder if they have secretly bought part of the Heidelsheimat government? That might explain some of the odd things going on there.

Part of me wonders whether the resettlement of German refugees on Chengdu might be part of a plan to draw a relatively isolated Heidelsheimat closer into the fold ...

"Thank you for coming by to help the refugees. Every little bit counts, and we have good reason to believe that they're more comfortable with people who share their language than with us. It's a bit of a pity, since we'd really like to help them, but they have gone through so much it's understandable.

"This is a bit embarrassing--I don't think we've ever told you this--but we really respect Heidelsheimat's successes. You've made so little go a very long way. There have been tensions in the past, we won't deny that, but that is passed. We'd really like to get to know you better since you clearly have a lot to offer all of the Arm's colonies and sharing best practice is something we encourage."

"Incidentally, would you be interested in an academic exchange program? We've got some spots opening up at Shenyang University."

And so on.

If the Manchurian government is really being quite successfully Machiavellian, two possible and not-incompatible possibilities come to mind.

1. An increasingly pro-Manchurian and militarized Heidelsheimat could have interesting consequences on the Chinese Arm. In the event of a Heidelsheimat-Texan war, I'm inclined to bet on a Heidelsheimater victory in the Rho Eridani system. Depending on Manchurian priorities, the Heidelsheimaters might even try to expand the war into a campaign against New Austin over at 82 Eridani.

The war would be a costly one for the Heidelsheimaters, especially if you get into counterinsurgency warfare. It would be a catastrophic one for the Texans: If they're having problems financing three colonies at peace, how in the NSL will they be able to afford a sustained war in the distant Chinese Arm against a well-armed enemy? A collapse of the Texan interstellar empire might not be impossible, with who knows what consequences for the Incans.

At this point, Manchuria could step in. "Hello, New Austin. We decided that we had to come as soon as we heard that you were thrown on your own resources. We were so torn by the recent war, we didn't know what to do, but we'd like to make it up to you. If there's anything you need, just ask." Another three or five Manchurian protectorates on the Chinese Arm wouldn't be bad at all.

2. If Chengdu's German colonial population exists in part as a way to draw Heidelsheimat into a pro-Manchurian orbit, the question of Freihafen's role in comes up. Freihafen is a major trading partner of Heidelsheimat and a traditional protector of Heidelsheimater independence, and Freihafen also has a land border with Manchuria at Tunghu. Writings at the non-canon Tirane Sourcebook aside, it wouldn't be out of character for Manchuria to support Freihafener independence inasmuch as it would weaken a major ESA power.

More, if you're resettling a few tens of thousands of German colonials from the French Arm, Freihafen (or Terran Germany) would seem to make easier and more economic destinations than worlds deep in the Chinese Arm. Would Zapamoga have that much cash? Perhaps not, but if Freihafen sponsored these refugees' transfer to Chengdu such a plan would seem more viable. Such an action would imply that the Freihafeners might at least suspect that the Manchurians are trying to engineer something. And yet, they don't care.

Why? Looking at the record to date, Manchuria's active or passive support has led to the independence of two ex-Bavarian colonies. How has Freihafen paid Manchuria back? More, Freihafen has actively collaborated with Nibelungen on multiple fronts since that world's independence. What were Freihafener and Manchurians doing on Nibelungen before independence? What are the Nibelungers doing with the Manchurians now? We do know that for whatever reason they were willing enough to recognize the Kimanjano-Augereau-Nyotekundu UDI in the same region of space.

To me, all this points to a plan of awesome scope. Élyséen independence was pleasant enough, if only as a good way to tweak the French. But the dissolution of the core of the Bavarian interstellar community and the weakening of an upstart and potentially destabilizing Germany and the cultivation of powerful friendly partners among the colonial successor states? That would be an achievement worthy of the best Manchurian state mimeticists.
 
It's important to note that the "trade-gravity"* model of interstellar transit, roughly 15% of shipping gravitated to the Chinese Arm (and only 2% to the American Arm, the rest prettymuch being on the French Arm or Tirane on a roughly even split).

It's nowhere near as rich as the French Arm, and it does indeed suggest a Manchurian hegemon. The Texan colonies, for example, are serviced by Manchurian starships...




Used to construct http://www.geocities.com/Area51/9292/2300/ShipArr.html

The model assumed that the "trade gravity" of each planet was equal to the sqrt of population divided by surface gravity (with the pop used directly in small colonies of less than 1 million to reflect lack of diversity)
 
No, sqrt of population.

The "Trade-Gravity" is a world was defined by sqrt(pop) / surface gravity (I think I may have used effective gravity), removing the sqrt if the world had less than a million inhabitants.

This was compared against the sum "gravity" of the entire human sphere and %'s were assigned to each world. The ships trading with them were then distributed evenly along the main trade route to that world.

It is a simplification as it assumes that all trade centres at Earth. In a couple of areas we can find reasonable "trade triangles" (an agricultural, industrial and mining world in close proximity), plus BCV-4 has enough weight that it should be a trading centre in its own right, but I wasn't prepared to factor in those assumptions.

Finally, the 2300 Resource Figure (which is simply a published discussion from the original gENIE group, back when GDW were still publishing) was used, although I think it's dodgy. Evan Powles had a slightly corrupt copy from years back which I've posted to the 2300noncanon yahoo group. They missed a lot in their discussion and made some very dodgy (IMHO) assumptions.
 
I'm not sure I get the economic model at all. But I haven't studied colonial macroeconomics yet.

Intuitively I would guess a colonial GDP would scale linearly with population (a quick check with real country GDPs and population sizes supports this as a rough rule); I don't see why it would be proportional to the square root of population.
 
>GDP would scale linearly with population

Unless Im totally misunderstanding your meaning, its not even close unless you start from the assumption that all countiries are equally endowed in all resources, eliminating the need for trade.

If it was linear - China would be triple the USA GDP and so would India while Japan could not be the (declining) 2nd largest GDP. If I can find the file I was using for my economic model (2005 GDP and Polulation) I'll post the top nations here later today
 
>GDP would scale linearly with population

Unless Im totally misunderstanding your meaning, its not even close unless you start from the assumption that all countiries are equally endowed in all resources, eliminating the need for trade.

Yes, the GDP per capita varies by several orders of magnitude (and resources is just a minor aspect of that). That was why I said it was a "rough" rule - when I plotted population and GDP in a loglog diagram I got a correlation around 0.6 or so. But the thing I was interested in was the overall slope - it was definitely nowhere near 1/2 as it would have been if the square root rule had been true.

I would expect colonies to start out very inefficient at producing anything, then rapidly scaling up for resource production. It is the further stages where they begin doing manufacturing, trade and services that are harder and more individual to model. Meanwhile the Core is best at all of these, but due to comparative advantage it focuses on the stuff the colonies are worst at.
 
I'm no mathematician (and since I cant get this to appear as a table, no web expert either) so Im not sure what a loglog is etc but I just dont see any trend that relates directly between population and GDP .... at least in these UN figures for 2005:-
Ranking Economy USD 000 Pop 000 USD/Pop
1 USA 12912889 296410 43.6
2 Japan 4976464 127774 38.9
3 Germany 2875640 82469 34.9
4 UK 2272716 60424 37.6
5 China 2269745 1304500 1.7
6 France 2169169 60873 35.6
7 Italy 1772942 58630 30.2
8 Spain 1095876 43398 25.3
9 Canada 1052563 32299 32.59
10 India 804067 1094583 0.73
11 Korea 764995 48294 15.84
12 Mexico 753394 103089 7.31
13 Australia 673197 20329 33.12
14 Brazil 661990 186405 3.55
15 Netherlands 641997 16320 39.34
16 Russian 638070 143114 4.46
17 Switzerland 411409 7437 55.32
18 Belgium 378720 10479 36.14
19 Sweden 369143 9024 40.91
20 Turkey 341987 72065 4.75
21 Austria 306184 8233 37.19
22 Saudi Arabia 289194 23119 12.51
23 Indonesia 282158 220558 1.28
24 Norway 281509 4623 60.89
25 Poland 273099 38165 7.16
26 Denmark 261757 5416 48.33
27 South Africa 223476 46888 4.77
28 Greece 220336 11104 19.84
29 Finland 196883 5246 37.53
30 Hong Kong 192111 6944 27.67
31 Portugal 181330 10549 17.19
32 Iran 177300 68251 2.60
33 Thailand 174961 64233 2.72
34 Argentina 173081 38747 4.47
35 Ireland 171122 4159 41.14
36 Israel 128667 6924 18.58
37 Venezuela 128109 26577 4.82
38 Malaysia 125943 25347 4.97
39 Singapore 119757 4342 27.58
40 UAE 103460 4533 22.82
41 Czech 114794 10234 11.22
42 Philippines 109697 83054 1.32
43 Pakistan 107284 155772 0.69
44 New Zealand 106251 4099 25.92
45 Colombia 104520 45600 2.29
46 Hungary 101566 10087 10.07
47 Chile 95660 16295 5.87
48 Egypt 92984 74033 1.26
49 Algeria 89580 32854 2.73
50 Romania 84633 21634 3.91

The third column is $ divided by pop and seems scattered all over the place.
 
GDP in the real world is a combination of
1) raw resources
2) sufficient manpower to extract said resources
3) industrial capacity
4) sufficient manpower for the industrial capacity
5) political will to maximize the above 4
6) trade partners willing to enhance the value of 1 & 3.
7) ability to live with the consequences of 1-6

We are just now hitting the point where 7 is a major concern to the average producer (since the 1700's, it's been a concern of the average city worker).
 
I'm no mathematician (and since I cant get this to appear as a table, no web expert either) so Im not sure what a loglog is etc but I just dont see any trend that relates directly between population and GDP ....

Yup, it is hard to see. If you plot them against each other it is still hard to see, because most populations and economies are extremely small, so they cluster into a corner together. However, if you look at the logarithms of them (i.e. essentially just the order of magnitude - which is what we are interested in anyway for the crude modelling we want to do) you get a less messy plot.

gdpop.png

(I used some slightly older data with more countries, but I checked that it looks the same as your current data; population is measured in thousands)

Note the big spread - just knowing population will not tell you economy size reliably. But there is a shape to the cloud of points (i.e. population matters a bit), and if you fit a line to it you get the slope 0.89. That means that the contribution of population to GDPscales as the population to the power of 0.89, which is almost 1 (this is the cool property of loglog plots, you can find power laws easily).

So if I just know colony size, guessing at a GDP proportional to the population would be a good start. If I was told what kind of economy it had I could also try comparing it with the GDP/capita for real nations that look similar. It does not matter if they are 2300 countries or current ones, for this kind of back-of-the-envelope calculations consistency is more important than really accurate data.
 
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GDP in the real world is a combination of
1) raw resources
2) sufficient manpower to extract said resources
3) industrial capacity
4) sufficient manpower for the industrial capacity
5) political will to maximize the above 4
6) trade partners willing to enhance the value of 1 & 3.
7) ability to live with the consequences of 1-6

We are just now hitting the point where 7 is a major concern to the average producer (since the 1700's, it's been a concern of the average city worker).

Exactly. In 2300's case, most of the worlds are still resource extraction based, either agricultural (BCV and Nibelungen for example) or mining (Dunkelheim or Aurore).

Oddly, some of these worlds are really dead end and don't have the resources to develop into major industrial nations, Joi is the classic example, there's just nothing to develop an industrial infrastructure with.

Lets consider Nibelungen. It started when it was realised that one of the moons of Neubayern VI (a gas giant) had significant metal concentrations. Several nations (including Bavaria, Britain and Brazil) moved in to mine there, especially for the Tantalum. Bavaria decided to put down a colony on the one marginal world in system as a logistics base for the mines in the outer system. The mines have largely since dried up (only Britain and Brazil's claims are still working ISTR), and Nibelungen now is a small rural world, which relies on farming and textile manufacture. Not a bad gig, but the resources for heavy industry, starship contructions etc. just don't exist there. Nibelungen is doomed to being a sparsely inhabited non-industrial world.

At another extreme is Crater, a world of just over 2m, of whom over half work in "the crater", a metal rich meteor strike, which has yielded tantalum. Moreover, the British also mine the metal rich belt in the system. Crater is a treasure trove pouring wealth into the Empire.

Then there's Nous Voila. An agricultural world with seemingly no hope of ever being a major industrial nation. However, it fitted in when with the Aurore finger as a single economic unit. The 12m people there are probably pretty poor.

Kimanjano was settled entirely because it has petrochemicals. The 7m population there are likely fabulously rich, exporting oil and other petrochemicals as fast as they can pump it.

The general point is, GPP isn't going to scale to the population, but rather to the resources and the ability to exploit them if they exist.
 
I think you are too pessimistic about what it takes to develop into an industrialised nation. Going up Aramis' 7 steps certainly can take time and be ruined by bad colonial/home government decisions (IMHO the main reason many colony worlds are not developing), but there are few clear lock-in situations.

Mining petrochemicals is by no means a better ticket to wealth than doing agriculture - both are quite hi-tech processes if they are to be done for interstellar export. Current oil prices and high competition/low tech agriculture makes oil and agricultural countries very different, but in 2300 the tradeoffs are different. I think tantalum probably have the same effect on the economy as oil currently has - it means an influx of money, but not necessarily wealth (compare how Nigeria and Norway handle it).

As I see Kimanjano in my setting, it was a refinery planet - before catapulting stuff into orbit you want to refine everything for maximal density and profitability. Oil sources are mentioned on a few other planets, but the cluster formation necessary to make interstellar export probably never happened there. Hence Kimanjano ended up the well-off petrochem world.

Clusters are what really make an economy start going somewhere. Beta Canum might have been mainly agricultural on the ground, but it also became a transport and trade capital, and this would be its main source of wealth. Meanwhile Nous Voila mainly subsisted on agricultural subsidies, while its wineyards were decades away from getting the cluster effect making Tiranese wine profitable. Vogelheim might remain a backwater forever, lacking both exceptional resources, manpower, position and economic support.

In my setting Nibelungen is approaching the Core in sophistication: it has developed a self-amplifying economy and is making a lot of use of its good trade position and various light industries selling specialized parts needed along the local arm. It might not have great physical resources but it has the right mixture of position, governance, education and local incentives.

Another weird cluster is Aurore. This place ought to be entirely ruined, but it seems to have become a cluster in the Kafer war business. You have a population with serious war experience, a long need for self-sufficiency, some mineral resources and local manufacturing in a system that is a natural naval staging point and a great deal of need for refuelling, repair, support tasks as well as R&R. As I see it, the place is turning into the equivalent of a city supporting its military base. This also produces spillover capacity in the form of mercenaries, weapons and exploration support - not terribly good by Core standards, but give it a few years and it might even be self-supporting.
 
Looks like we have an answer between the 2 positions

Anders work gives us a "base" GDP fairly directly related to population which can then be modified upward based on colonial resources/facilities or occassionally downwards based on trade flows and colony background in accordance with the 7 steps

I'd always approached it the other way around .... look at what the system does and decide how rich that would make the world overall and then adjust for population size
 
While population is a requirement for economic activity, it does not imply economic activity.

Ultimately we have the following questions:

How much food does the world import or export?

How much industry does the world have?

Does the world provide for an excess of manufactured goods (generally not)

Does the world have any worthwhile exports?

To a certain extent, we can crib the original GG rules and bastardise them with the existing colony rules.

For example, in GG, a colony was a build (it was about 1,000,000 people). Each agricultural colony could support 4 others (which is in line with GG rules).

If I take BCV-4:

French Continent: 18,948,000 people; orbital terminal, beanstalk, heavy industry, farming

BS counts as an SPS ISTR, so produces 12 electricity (GG terms), the OT costs $6.

We're told BCV-4 is agricultural, and produces a slight excess. If we assign 5m population to agriculture that's the Continent fed plus about 1m pax-yrs food exported

The heavy industry is limited by power. In this case 12 electricity units of the SPS will power 3 Rudells of manufacturing output.

3 Rudells = between $36 and $72 dependent on mineral availability


German Continent: 16,250,000 people; orbital terminal, solar power satellite, catapult, scramjets, mining, farming, university

The catapult ($3) etc. will cost 1 electricity per launch, thus some of that 12 electricity is not available for industry, maybe 1 or 2 Rudells.

The mining will cost $1 per unit produced.

The "University" appears in GG as a research facility costing $10 per turn


British Continent: 12,500,000 (the given population figure is the 2296 census) no facilities listed, but mentioned in the text.

The British are a major food exporter (more so than the French Continent), and have some industry.

Perhaps the best we can do is follow Wade Racine's lead.

Hochbaden (2.2m): 1 Rudell, roughly self supporting in agriculture and mining (now of course a tomb), exports manufactures

Nous Voila (12m): 1 Rudell (excess power, but no mines), exports a few million man-years of food a year, imports manufactures and any available ores

Dunkelheim (1.5m): No industrial presence, some farming but still imports foodstuffs, largely a mining economy coex

Kimanjano (7m both colonies): Orbital manufacturing, probably 2 Rudells (power for over 4, but a lack of population), some farming, massive exporter of petrochemicals.

Crater (2m): 1 Rudell, massive excess of minerals for export, major food importer

Kimanjano: the 4 developed colonies (i.e. not the British) are probably 0.5 Rudells (penalised by lack of minerals) and relatively self sufficient in food.

TBC
 
INAP might be a preferred partner, if only because of the Manchurian-Mexican co-existence on Kwantung and a shared antipathy to the ESA powers.

The Argentinians in INAP may have some antipathy with the ESA powers and the British in particular, but Mexico and Manchuria do not. Manchuria doesn't care much for the French but seem to like the Germans, and has a neutral oppinon of the British who have an enclave in their colony at Zeta Tucanae.


Part of me wonders whether the resettlement of German refugees on Chengdu might be part of a plan to draw a relatively isolated Heidelsheimat closer into the fold ...

I think the Manchurians would have little problem helping the Germans because they are major rivals of the French.


1. An increasingly pro-Manchurian and militarized Heidelsheimat could have interesting consequences on the Chinese Arm. In the event of a Heidelsheimat-Texan war, I'm inclined to bet on a Heidelsheimater victory in the Rho Eridani system. Depending on Manchurian priorities, the Heidelsheimaters might even try to expand the war into a campaign against New Austin over at 82 Eridani.

Well I would also bet on a Heidelscheimat victory over the Texans as they have been preparing for war with the Germans since the War of German reunification. But I'm inclined to bet against any Manchurian inteference or aid to Heidelscheimat in its territorial expansion to 82 Eridani. Depending on which view we are looking at (2300AD or 2320AD) it could damage Manchurian relations with Germany who (in 2300AD) still consider Heidelscheimat to be German. It might draw in Friehafen and their French allies who feel protective over Heidelscheimat (in 2300Ad & 2320AD), and would almost certainly draw in the Americans (in 2300AD & 2320AD) who feel protective over Texas and could do quite a lot about it.


The war would be a costly one for the Heidelsheimaters, especially if you get into counterinsurgency warfare. It would be a catastrophic one for the Texans: If they're having problems financing three colonies at peace, how in the NSL will they be able to afford a sustained war in the distant Chinese Arm against a well-armed enemy? A collapse of the Texan interstellar empire might not be impossible, with who knows what consequences for the Incans.

It would be a disaster for all three, but Texas could request America aid.


At this point, Manchuria could step in. "Hello, New Austin. We decided that we had to come as soon as we heard that you were thrown on your own resources. We were so torn by the recent war, we didn't know what to do, but we'd like to make it up to you. If there's anything you need, just ask." Another three or five Manchurian protectorates on the Chinese Arm wouldn't be bad at all.

Another three or five protectorates wouldn't be bad, but they won't be coming from Texan if the USSF has anything to say about it.


2. If Chengdu's German colonial population exists in part as a way to draw Heidelsheimat into a pro-Manchurian orbit, the question of Freihafen's role in comes up. Freihafen is a major trading partner of Heidelsheimat and a traditional protector of Heidelsheimater independence, and Freihafen also has a land border with Manchuria at Tunghu. Writings at the non-canon Tirane Sourcebook aside, it wouldn't be out of character for Manchuria to support Freihafener independence inasmuch as it would weaken a major ESA power.

Again depending upon which view we are looking at (2300Ad or 2320AD), the issue of Friehafens's independence is a hot potato in any countries relationship with Germany and also relevant to their relationship with the French (in 2300AD), although in 2320AD Germany seems to have strangely dropped its interest in the former Bavarian colonies. Any Manchurian plot to weaken the ESA would be focused on the French and not the Germans and British. The Manchurian colony of Tunghu is little more than a prosperous enclave within Friehafen.

More, if you're resettling a few tens of thousands of German colonials from the French Arm, Freihafen (or Terran Germany) would seem to make easier and more economic destinations than worlds deep in the Chinese Arm. Would Zapamoga have that much cash? Perhaps not, but if Freihafen sponsored these refugees' transfer to Chengdu such a plan would seem more viable. Such an action would imply that the Freihafeners might at least suspect that the Manchurians are trying to engineer something. And yet, they don't care.

I think its just helping out its good friend Germany.


Why? Looking at the record to date, Manchuria's active or passive support has led to the independence of two ex-Bavarian colonies. How has Freihafen paid Manchuria back? More, Freihafen has actively collaborated with Nibelungen on multiple fronts since that world's independence. What were Freihafener and Manchurians doing on Nibelungen before independence? What are the Nibelungers doing with the Manchurians now? We do know that for whatever reason they were willing enough to recognize the Kimanjano-Augereau-Nyotekundu UDI in the same region of space.

Well Friefaven and Nibelungen are "culturally" German and newly independent countries so it would be natural for them to collaborate together. The issue of supporting independence movements in the French colonies migh be far higher on Manchuria's objectives, but it would also leave itself open to France also supporting the independence of Manchurian colonies in the Chinese Arm.

To me, all this points to a plan of awesome scope. Élyséen independence was pleasant enough, if only as a good way to tweak the French. But the dissolution of the core of the Bavarian interstellar community and the weakening of an upstart and potentially destabilizing Germany and the cultivation of powerful friendly partners among the colonial successor states? That would be an achievement worthy of the best Manchurian state mimeticists
.

The fact that Germany has weakened its colonial persence in space in 2320AD is probably a disaster for Manchurian defence doctrine, as containing the Germans was a huge distraction for the French. Now they can focus more of their resources to Manchuria.
 
Again depending upon which view we are looking at (2300Ad or 2320AD), the issue of Friehafens's independence is a hot potato in any countries relationship with Germany and also relevant to their relationship with the French (in 2300AD), although in 2320AD Germany seems to have strangely dropped its interest in the former Bavarian colonies.

I'd think it would have to. Freihafen is an independent state that is non-ethnically German, Nibelungen and Adlerhorst peacefully became independent states, and Heidelheimat's unilateral declaration of independence in 2306 was recognized by everyone including (eventually) Germany. Even if it wanted to, it would be impossible for Germany to try to conquer multiple colonies, each with their own notable defense forces, under the protection of France and likely the wider interstellar community.

Well Friefaven and Nibelungen are "culturally" German and newly independent countries so it would be natural for them to collaborate together. The issue of supporting independence movements in the French colonies migh be far higher on Manchuria's objectives, but it would also leave itself open to France also supporting the independence of Manchurian colonies in the Chinese Arm.

Elysia did get its weapons from Manchuria.

I'd suggest that Beta Canum might be a major focus for the Manchurians, with Bavarian-identifying colonies in a German Continent on the verge of a secessionist breakthrough and an angry French Continent.
 
I'd think it would have to. Freihafen is an independent state that is non-ethnically German

Well I think Friehaven is partly non-ethnically German. Have a look at Randy's article about it at the Tirane Sourcebook...

http://www.users.globalnet.co.uk/~dheb/Tirane/Frei/FreiDemographics.htm


Nibelungen and Adlerhorst peacefully became independent states, and Heidelheimat's unilateral declaration of independence in 2306 was recognized by everyone including (eventually) Germany.

Well this happens in Colin's version of 2320AD but not yet in 2300AD.


Even if it wanted to, it would be impossible for Germany to try to conquer multiple colonies, each with their own notable defense forces, under the protection of France and likely the wider interstellar community.

Well in 2300AD all the Bavarian colonies except Friehaven and Heidelscheimat are still German. But I don't think Germany ever had any plans to conquer them, it was just annoyed that they didn't join the reunified Germany like the other colonies. But Heidescheimat and to a lesser degree Friehaven has been paranoid about a German invasion since the WoGR, and other countries excluding France have distanced themselves from the issue.


Elysia did get its weapons from Manchuria.

It also got them from America (FS-17A fighters) and Germany (Legion Verte and others)...

http://www.users.globalnet.co.uk/~dheb/2300/Colonies/Elysia/elysia.htm


I'd suggest that Beta Canum might be a major focus for the Manchurians, with Bavarian-identifying colonies in a German Continent on the verge of a secessionist breakthrough and an angry French Continent.

The Manchurians have little presence in the French Arm, and its not in their interest to provoke France as well as her ally Britain.
 
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