Planetary Emergencies

[Liam Devlin]

Originally posted by TheEngineer:
Hi !

Maybe people on a vacuum world or one with a corrosive atmo might be better prepared to get along with a disaster as those on a pretty planet.

This might be, because the environment was/is a constant threat, which already existed even during settlement and people are better adopted to such a situation.
So safety and rescue facilities might be much more frequent, as well as safety-training.
Even the technical layout might be much more redundant, to provide LS even if some modules are toast.

Just a thought....

Regards,

Mert

Good argument Mert!
I would think those living on such a world (hostile environment) would be better trained to deal with such a crises, and would have a back up system in case of the worst ever happening.

What the GM ref must calculate is of course the "panic factor". How well organized is the government? How fast will they respond as the "first line"?

@Will they stay and keep control, or will they bail take a ship and save their own skins?

@How flexible are they to such "acts of God/ Nature"?

@You can have the smallest totalitarian regime with the most fearsome army, yet be unable to feed your population through even lean years without outside support/ imports.

@Amber zoned worlds with lots of system civil unrest would be powderkeg situations if we translate this broadly in the event of such dire circumstances.

@On worlds with breathable atmospheres (4-9)it isn't lack of air that will kill them, but dehydration, starvation, loss of basic services.

On these latter, perhaps the 1248 OoTD planetary MSP (Maximum sustained population) tables could be used to calculate what affect an event like that could have?

Again, this is dealing with worlds with massive populations over what the world's resources can provide.

One could extrapolate the trade modifier "Na" (non agricultural) as particualr vulnerable to loss of food shipments!

Thanks Mert!

 

[Liam Devlin]

Originally posted by Randy Tyler:

Right, it falls upon the sub-sector or quadrant nobles to do something about it. Since it might be a couple of months before word of the disaster spreads across the quadrant then add a couple of months while the nobles gather up whatever help they can muster plus the couple of months to journey back to the stricken world it's probably going to be at least six months before any substantial help arrives. It's up to the world's government to handle the situation until then, if they lost life supposrt then that means 99.999% will die (I'm sure the local government leaders will somehow manage to survive along with their families.).

The importance of the media watching the response is going to be less of an issue than what we had with Katrina. Imperial nobles aren't elected like city mayors, state legislators, and President's are here in the US. Depending upon the government there might be no coverage of the disaster on some worlds (where conditions are similar ie vacuum worlds with life support dependencies, etc) because the local government might not want it's population questioning them and a potential response to a like disaster. Dictators are not know to permit a free press to exist, especially if it questions the government's actions. Even on worlds that have a free press and democracy with elections there might not be much response with the people who live there. Not every society is going to feel sympathy or guilt because someplace else had a disaster.

Randy Tyler--
Agreed.

@Planetary Press is one thing; TAS/ TNS quite another. The Nobility are aware of the powers of the 4th Estate (the Press). Some couldn't care less; others court it assiduously; but none of them ignore it entirely

@--And true, not every interstellar society and world will have sympathy for the one whose own govt. bungled it, and cost lives through indecision, ineptitude, wasteful spending, fraud, corruption, graft, etc etal.

Some Democracies will look at such a things as "well you should have elected better leadership"..

Some Dictatorships/ Autocracies will view such things as, "Your lack of effective control led to it"..

Oligarchies will say, "You should have selected the best/ brightest/ most capable/ wealthiest/ eldest-wiser etc..

Again--it will fall to the Nobility (in an Imperium era campaign) to do something about it, and that too is hampered by resources, and what he/she subsector, planetary, and Sector Duke can scrounge/ have set aside to mobilize for the relief.

Long term recovery efforts may change the face of the affected world's economy, and should be reflected by the GM's notes on the UWP...

Good thinking Randy!

 

[Black Globe Generator]

What kind of efforts would TAS provide to them or the Traveller equivalent of the Red Cross?

IMTU the Red Cross equivalent of the Third Imperium is Kimushenama (Vilani: literally, "little mother bird"), an organization established during the First Imperium by Vilani aristocrats concerned with the health and welfare of the lower classes.

Kimushenama can be found throughout the Imperium. It is a favorite charity of the nobility, particularly among the old Vilani families, and its sponsors include members of the Imperial family. Kimushenama is organized by planetary chapters served by subsector and sector councils - each chapter decides what projects to pursue on its homeworld while the subsector and sector councils provide support for the individual planets where the need exceeds the depth and breadth of the local resources.

Kimushenama maintains Emergency Response Modules with supplies for managing a wide variety of natural and sophont-made disasters as well as lists of professional and volunteer responders. The modules are typically staged in systems with a type A starport and a naval base if possible - they may also stage modules on high-population worlds.

In the event of a planetary disaster, the staff of Kimushenama can typically have primary modules prepped and staffed for deployment within a matter of days - primary modules provide immediate medical care and basic shelter and subsistence for up to 100,000 sophonts for up to two weeks. Additional modules may take up to another two weeks to staff for deployment, not including travel time. If all goes well, Kimushenama can provide on-going aid for up to 1 million people within one month of initial notification using its staged resources.

Kimushenama depends primarily on the Colonial Fleets for module deployment in the event of an planetary emergency, though merchant and other vessels may be drafted as naval auxiliaries or chartered to transport supplies as needed. The organization owns a handful of ships in each sector, primarily for moving supplies and people to the module staging points or to provide assistance for local projects - charters of private merchant vessels are common as well. (Hang plot hooks here... )

The symbol of Kimushenama is a four-winged bird carrying a sprig of vegetation in her bill. The bird is Kaavak's wren, known for its maternal diligence in the face of various predators, and the plant in its beak is quatrefoil, a medicinal herb.

 

[whartung]

As has been mentioned, anything out system is simply too late. The only thing of value they can bring really is good loans and grants, or boost shipments of whatever off world goods that the planet normally receives.

Now, a group like the mentioned Kimushenama could perhaps provide aid and infrastructure to setting up of refugee camps, but, again, the time factor almost rules that out.

If the disaster is localized on the planet (like Katrina), then there's (ideally) nearby unaffected infrastructure that can be leveraged for support.

But if, effectively, the entire planet is disabled, then out system help will simply arrive too late.

The locals need to have enough supplies to sustain themselves for at least a MONTH before they can rely on help arriving.

Again looking back at Katrina, the problem wasn't the city population. A majority left and was absorbed in to the surrounding areas. The trouble was with the folks remaining in the city, and we're talking the low 10's of thousands of people.

100 dTons will supply fresh water for 30,000 people for 1 day.

100 dTons would supply an MRE for roughly 90,000 people.

So, two Free Traders landing each day would provide enough food and water for the Katrina victims for one day.

Now obviously, if you have fusion power, setting up a water purification system is essentially trivial.

Also, there's more efficient food stuffs to ship for long term food than MREs, but MREs are handy. And, of course, folks can make do with less than what I'm quoting (3 meals/day, 4 liters of water/day per person).

But it gives a sense of scale necessary in terms of basic food and water requirements.

1 dTon of shipping supports 175 man/days. 1B people require 5.7M dTons of supplies/day.

Plus, of course, distribution.

So, anyway, I don't think that any large scale planetary disaster is survivable with after the fact out system support. The only way to survive it is to leave before it happens, or stage vast amounts of supplies in orbit awaiting the disaster, and then deploy them to the concentrations of survivors.

Finally, the Imperium has witnessed planetary disasters -- on a huge scale. It was called "virus".

 

[Liam Devlin]

And mind you, without an orderly feeding process, those dropped supplies will fall to the dog-eat-dog of panic without help on the ground distributing them.

Been there, done that, seen the results of opposite 01-03 SEP 2005 in person.

SSG Daniel Hammersley,
TF-Arkansas, A Co 2/153
'Operation Katrina-Relief" 31 Aug-2005 28 Feb 2006

 

[Spinward Scout]

That had to be rough, Liam. I couldn't believe most of what I was seeing/hearing on the news.

So that's it. A planetary disaster happens on a HiPop world and unless they know about it ahead of time and have food and water ready, the population is down to a single digit percentage.

Ouch.

And if they are ready, it's all about distribution.

I really like the 'storing supplies in orbit' idea.

I think I might write up a scenario for Roup. Prevent the Disaster before it happens (a.k.a. Armageddon) or if the Prevention fails, surviving the Disaster. Two weeks to get minimal help, and say only one week before the Disaster strikes. A mining ship explodes and throws an asteroid or comet out of orbit. And time is running out.

What kind of group would you run in something like this? A Hero type group that would try to save the day? Or a Journalistic type that is recording what's happening? Or something else? A group that's trapped and has to survive?

Hmmmmm, the possibilities...

Dameon

 

[Liam Devlin]

Originally posted by Sir Dameon Toth:
That had to be rough, Liam. I couldn't believe most of what I was seeing/hearing on the news.

We walked into the midst of the chaos and saw for ourselves..900 of us from Arkansas. A low and high point in American History for sure.

So that's it. A planetary disaster happens on a HiPop world and unless they know about it ahead of time and have food and water ready, the population is down to a single digit percentage.

Ouch.

And if they are ready, it's all about distribution.

I really like the 'storing supplies in orbit' idea.

Yep. And rotate the orbital emergency stocks every so many years whn they "expire". Good idea for Star system with M-class stars & a high volatitlity of solar flares, or other predictable but long time between natural disasters (meteor showers, etc.).

I think I might write up a scenario for Roup. Prevent the Disaster before it happens (a.k.a. Armageddon) or if the Prevention fails, surviving the Disaster. Two weeks to get minimal help, and say only one week before the Disaster strikes. A mining ship explodes and throws an asteroid or comet out of orbit. And time is running out.

What kind of group would you run in something like this? A Hero type group that would try to save the day? Or a Journalistic type that is recording what's happening? Or something else? A group that's trapped and has to survive?

Hmmmmm, the possibilities...

Dameon

Depends on the players you have. I can see a mix of either Dameon.

Good thoughts!

 

[parmasson]

OK any high pop system is bound to have settlements elsewhere in the system. In system help could be the first line of assistance. If the main world has say 2 billion people and the rest of the settlements in the system only have a small percentage of the total system population then there could be millions or tens of millions of people who could help right now. With any kind of organization much could be done. If an air raft can make orbit then evacuation or shipping supplies becomes easier. Not ideal mind you, but at least possible. In the big ship OTU relief is conceivable because 500kt freighters can be really helpful, in a small ship TU forget it.

As for supplies. In the center of a moon would seem better to be.

 

[Blue Ghost]

My gut instinct is that planetary wide disasters would be somewhat rare for a single system, but not unique to the Imperium (and other interstellar nations) as a whole.

Local disasters, on the other hand, are a different story. But this is where it gets somewhat deceptive, because on moderate to low pop worlds most of the population is concentrated in one or a handful of population centers. This makes a disaster near one of those hubs effectively a "planetary wide" disaster as nearly everyone on the world is effected by virtue of everyone being in one spot.

But I guess I'm just arguing semantics here

In terms of first responders I personally like Black Globe Generator's approach to his TU. To me that makes more sense than anything in the world in terms of an Imperium wide relief agency.

Other disasters;
Caldera and/or volcano near a metropolis.
Undersea city suffers a flood due to a seaquake.
Meteor shower punctures a geodesic dome protecting a city on a vacuum world.
Solar flare... not sure how to deal with that one.
A Perfect Dust Storm on a Martian-like world.
Amonia comets striking a world with an exotic atmosphere, and altering the chemical composition to a corrosive one... nitric acid rain anyone?
Interstellar locusts?

*okay, I made that one up*
Typhoons and/or hurricanse and/or tornados on worlds that don't have weather control.
Tidal waves (the non tsunami kind).
Plagues.
Crops dying.

Wow. Suddenly I feel like playing Sim City.

 

[aramis]

Let's see, where to begin.

In-system travel:
Under TNE, or T4, most in-system travel is beyond a week out. (Most T4 designs I've seen go HEPlaR for cost reasons over T-Plates)
CT, MT, T20: inner system worlds can reach in under a week; deep system is over a week.
All: probably not enough in system to help most mainworlds. In a few thinly dispersed systems, there might be enough to evac, but it's all still past "the first 48" hours.

The First 48 Hours: This is the point where most of the dying occurs. The unprepared and injured tend not to last through this period unless adequate help is maintained. Hours 4-8 are when most of the critically injured die, from shock. The walking wounded often drop within the following 24 from secondary infections and shock coupled with exposure. (Anchorage Fire Department Training Video, ca. 1985)

Now, even at closest approach, Mars is STILL 0.6 AU, and Venus 0.4 AU away; Even at 6G, half an AU is going to take some time. Mars is still 20 hours, plus decision and loading time, at closest approach; 44 hours plus decision and loading time at 6 G furthest separation, assuming straight shot sun-skimming.

At 1G, mars is 49-108 hours away... not counting decision and load times.

So don't count on freighters being able to make it during the first 48 hours. So more than half the "potential deaths" have already died before even neighboring orbits responders can arrive in any real sense.

On-world bases

Most on-world bases would have adequate stores for their own emergency needs. Probably not for more than a few days for their local environ's habitation, and certainly not for the whole world.

Asteroids
Given that it only takes TL4 to build modest sized scopes (0.5-1m reflectors), TL4 to build blink comparators, TL4 to do the chem for and take photographs (though properly we didn't do them 'til TL5, unless the Turin shroud is a photographic process...) it is highly likely that most TL4+ worlds can and will be able to do decent asteroid hunting, and have more than 4weeks notice.

Given four weeks notice, that's enough to have a response "just in time: up to one week to have an Xboat or courier arrive. It jumps out, hails help, which jumps back. 3 weeks. at a week out, a ship's drive should be able to nudge it off course. Best bet? nudge it off the ecliptic.

A small correction at 1 week is still going to result in a close call. (Under TNE, it is more likely to need 3 weeks adjust time, not one. So the Courier itself does the task.)

Given that 1m scopes are readily doable at TL 5+, as opposed to merely possible, and 2m scopes are a possibility at TL7+, and many earth crossers are detected with sub-meter scopes... with months before closest approach!

Also, at TL6, one has possible satellite and radar capability. orbiting asteroid radars are no less possible than the DEW-line radars... if there is political will to do so.

Not a major threat at all. Anything big enough to need significant efforts for diversion would have been surveyed long before, long enough that it could have been stably altered into a non-crossing orbit.

Single Place Colonies
Blue Ghost - not semantics; it is a real distinction. If the world is habitable, they have an immediate evac point by non-space means. Expect every ship in system to be ordered to help, and your loaded cargo may be scrapped by the world (put it down on THAT island; then land here, load 30 people per ton of cargo space in the bays, and make a short hop to that other island).

It is a huge difference to have a single place colony on a hab world.

On a non-habitable world, there is still the possibility of evac, just not nearly so happy a one... and it is far less likely.

Low-pop multi-center
Now, habitability is far less important. You now have somewhere to go in the first 48, and probably somewhere to stay for help to arrive in 4-8 weeks. It isn't a happy thing, but it is survivable in ways a world-wide is not.