Shipyard Production

[AnotherDilbert]

TCS calculations are "wrong", i.e. non-canonical.

I counted only TL15 world (1105 data), I guess the sector was TL14 max in 990, and guess that the same worlds that are now max TL was max TL then.

So if we simply subtract 1 from all TLs above only Amdani and Kimel were TL14 then.

I do not know the data for 990 so I am just guessing wildly.

 

[tjoneslo]

990 to 1105 is 115 years.

So in addition to moving everything down a TL (or possibly more), the population would shrink. Running a 0.5% growth rate backward for 115 years results in a population multiplier of 0.56, and resulting in a smaller population, and a smaller build capacity.

I went back to Pocket Empires to see how they did their economics. And I discovered why I didn't add it to the Trade Map calculations. There are too many "Roll 2D to calculate this value" or "Player decides" options. So there isn't any way to generate a static set of economic numbers or, by extension, things like GWP or starport capacity. I understand the T5 economic extension and Ru calculation take precedence over the PE ones. But the T5 Rules and rule masters (Marc, Don, Rob) could not explain how these numbers relate to anything else, like GWP or starport build capacity.

So as much as everyone want's to proclaim the TCS build capacity number non-canon and invalid, I've got nothing to replace them with.

 

[Hal]

Let's test the Striker budget on a real world example, e.g. Sweden.

TL8, Pop=9.5 million, let's say Industrial.

GDP_St = 8000 * 1.4 * 9.5E6 ≈ GCr100

In reality:

GDP ≈ $45000 [PPP] * 9.5E6 ≈ G$430 ≈ GCr_Imp200 (roughly)


Or the US:
TL8, Pop=320E6, let's say Rich.

GDP_St = 8000 * 1.6 * 320E6 ≈ GCr4000

In reality:

GDP ≈ $55000 [PPP] * 320E6 ≈ G$17600 ≈ GCr_Imp8000 (roughly)



So, the Striker formula seems pretty good, it is within a factor of two or three.



Let's compare military budget with TCS for Sweden:

(Striker Military) GCr100 * 1% = GCr1, half that for the Navy so GCr0.5
(TCS Naval) Cr = 500 * 0.5 * 9.5E6 ≈ GCr2

TCS presupposes an interstellar TL with a higher GDP/capita, and perhaps a bit higher military expenditure, so Striker and TCS is in the same ball park.



If we now try to apply the Striker formula on the Imperium:

Average TL12 giving a GDP/capita of kCr16.
Pop in the region of 100 trillion?
GDP = 16000 * 100E12 = 1.6E18 = ECr1.6
Assuming a default military budget of 1%, of which 30% is given to the Imperium we get ECr1.6 * 0.003 ≈ PCr5.
If we assume half of that goes to the Imperial Navy, and half of that on ships we get a budget for ships of about PCr1. According to TCS we can have 10 times that in build fleet, so we can have a fleet worth PCr10.
Assuming a BB cost of GCr200 and that a quarter of the navy is BBs we get around 10000 BBs or 1000 BatRons for ~300 fleets + ~300 reserve fleets. I would say we are within a factor of two or so...


Canon or not, I would say the budgets from Striker and TCS are good enough to use as an estimate.

The thing to keep in the back of your mind is that naval ships in the real world, cost considerably more than do the Space Naval ships do in Traveller.

As if that were not enough? I took the time to create a spreadsheet for use with GURPS TRAVELLER GROUND FORCES (not the same thing as say, GDW's STRIKER, but the idea was to work off the TO&E and try and get an estimate of how much the equipment cost to raise a Battalion. As a result of that exercise, I estimated that the cost to raise a battalion was about equal to the cost of three Naval Destroyers.

In short - the concepts regarding Gross Domestic Product and military spending budgets of the real world, tend to badly reflect what is used in the Traveller Universe. Mind you, I honestly believe that making an effort to FIX things is a good idea. I also liked the rules in Pocket Empires where a certain portion of the budget had to go to "other things" like culture and such, are a valid set of rules as far as concepts go. In addition, there should be costs like maintenance of infrastructure and a cost of administering a government etc. Problem is - any super detailed system you make that isn't administered by the GM via computer coding, is going to bog down play at the table etc. You should see the MESS that was made with GURPS TRAVELLER'S FAR TRADER! My God, even with coding involved, it is not easy to utilize at the table. Trying to administer it as a GM at the table without a computer results in GM shutdown.

Well, nuff said on that by myself. It is EASY to criticize other people's work, but not so easy to come up with your own solutions that everyone agrees is the neatest thing since salt on eggs. So take it (my opinion) with a grain of salt *cough*.

Hal

 

[Hal]

Where I'm going with this: I'm looking a hypothetical Daibei sector during the Rim War. Using the T20 Fighting Ship supplements I've got a reasonable handle on what the initial naval assets might have looked like. Assuming the borders stabilized around 993, I was curious how those naval assets, particularly capital ships, might have changed by the time the Imperium started to advance in 998.

CT High Guard states that "Ships of 5,000 tons or less can be completed in 36 months or less by any competent shipyard. Ships over 5,000 tons require from 24 to 60 months to complete, based on conditions, volume of orders, and the degree of haste desired by the ordering government."

Although there would have been great pressure to speed up production, I'm assuming conditions and volume work are working against this imperative, so I'm using 1 new capital ship per 200kt of capacity during this period.

The results are . . . a ridiculous amount of ships. Daibei has 3 pop A worlds that have or likely had Class A starports.

Even regressing pop and tech levels, Amandi on the Imperial side could have turned out 630 capital ships in those 5 years, while Kimel on the Confederation side could have turned out 520 capital ships.

That seems like an order of magnitude too high to me.

One thing I hated about this particular process is that shipyard capacity is used for what in the Traveller Universe? Is it ONLY used for hull construction, or is it used for Hull repairs, Hull maintenance, and Hull upgrades? if it is also used for everything I've mentioned above, then the issue really comes down to this:

What is the total tonnage in use in the subsector at that moment. If it takes two weeks to handle maintenance, then a shipyard capacity of 200 dtons per year, would be able to service some 25 hulls in the course of a year, or 26 if you have multiple shifts that can handle down time due to vacations and the like. Presumably too, ship yard capacity has to undergo its own maintenance to be effective over a long period of time. So... Let's call it 25 hulls can be maintenance for that 200 dtons of shipyard capacity given over ONLY to maintenance. Then you have repairs. THAT is something I can't begin to estimate. Ditto on Upgrades. In the end? I have to wonder just how much really is available for new hulls?

Heck, if you go by the law of supply and demand? How much new construction does the subsector or sector really need at any given time?

So, you call it. Are the rules realistic? <shrug>

 

[robject]

Where I'm going with this: I'm looking a hypothetical Daibei sector during the Rim War. Using the T20 Fighting Ship supplements I've got a reasonable handle on what the initial naval assets might have looked like. [...]

The results are . . . a ridiculous amount of ships. Daibei has 3 pop A worlds that have or likely had Class A starports.

Even regressing pop and tech levels, Amandi on the Imperial side could have turned out 630 capital ships in those 5 years, while Kimel on the Confederation side could have turned out 520 capital ships.

That seems like an order of magnitude too high to me.

Well, start from the other direction, then. What should production be, and where does that lead you? Are the resulting percentages and/or formulas meaningful and useful?

 

[tjoneslo]

Well, start from the other direction, then. What should production be, and where does that lead you? Are the resulting percentages and/or formulas meaningful and useful?

There are two things you need a shipyard for: the merchant fleet and the warship fleet.

Merchant fleet: From my original calculation based upon trade volumes we get 6.8 to 10.2 billion tons of ships. Ship maintenance requires 2 weeks, or 400 million tons of port capacity. For the whole Imperium.

Naval fleet: There are many arguments about how big the imperial Fleet really is, compounded by several contradictory canon statements on the matter. So pick your favorite.

For this one I'm assuming warships cost 1MCr per Dton. The Imperial naval budget is 18 trillion people times Cr500 each for 9,000 TCr. Which in turn buys 9 billion tons of ships. Or can maintain 90 billion tons of ships. Assuming the shipyard capacity to support them. Which is 3,600 million tons of port capacity.

Adding these together there should be about 4 billion tons of starhips building and maintenance capacity. In the whole Imperium.

According to the Trade map data, the Imperium has 19 billion tons of capacity, or about 5x as much as needed.

 

[flykiller]

There are two things you need a shipyard for: the merchant fleet and the warship fleet.

and the nobility fleet, don't forget those. lots of yachts, lots of high-class liners, nobility-class liners.

"are those nasty old meson guns really more important than mummsie's grand-tour-party-boat?"

 

[Hal]

and the nobility fleet, don't forget those. lots of yachts, lots of high-class liners, nobility-class liners.

"are those nasty old meson guns really more important than mummsie's grand-tour-party-boat?"

Then toss in the "boats" as well, as those will need some form of maintenance over time.

If someone calculates that the shipyard capacity of the Imperium is 5x higher than it needs to be, the question becomes one of how to account for that capacity, and how to account for the law of supply and demand.

Just because a world can have a given level of trained personnel who work at a ship yard, doesn't mean there will be that number available - especially if 80% of the work force can't find work!

Perhaps the best way to handle this would be to toss in a new modifier to the formula:

Instead of Pop-1, why not make it pop-2 instead? (I'm going by memory here, so forgive me if I'm misremembering!). Drop it one level of magnitude, and assume that the higher capacity can only come into being when/where the economic activity is high enough to sustain it.

 

[flykiller]

Then toss in the "boats" as well

oh geez yeah, the in-system fleets will be substantial. ore haulers, gas giant fuel transfer boats, police, search and rescue, busses, troop transfer, survey, trainers. not to mention in-system liners like the phloston paradise.

 

[Whipsnade]

Even regressing pop and tech levels, Amandi on the Imperial side could have turned out 630 capital ships in those 5 years, while Kimel on the Confederation side could have turned out 520 capital ships.

Man them.

Seriously.

Find the bodies those 1100 some odd ships need and then train them enough just to not be dangerous to themselves and their fellows.

Towards the end of WW2, the US Navy had more ships afloat and building than it could man. And that was with a draft.

Leaving aside the meta-game chargen mechansim, does the Imperium even have a draft? Are inhabitants of the worlds the Imperium claims not to rule told to register, wait for lottery draws, report for physicals, appear before boards, and then wait for the telegram/email telling them they've been inducted into the Emperor's Service?

Or does the Imperium "subcontract" out the draft to it's member worlds in accordance with legal precedents and customs dating back to that world's admission?

Consider the fodder a draft may provide too. Here's a quote from Agent of the Imperium for those of you who haven't yet read it:

... was a product of his particular social class: his rudimentary education focused on being a good citizen, media emphasized patriotism and social co-operation, entertainments provided fairy-tale adventures with little relationship to reality. Consequently, he had an unrealistic understanding of the nobility. He believed in the platitudes of honor and responsibility that were so often spoken but not respected, and he subconsciously expected that most of his duties would be dramatic affirmations of those high principles.

(emphasis mine)

Remember, the average Imperial "citizen" lives on a Pop A world and "enjoys" law level in the A+ range.

Shipyard capacity DOES NOT EQUATE the amount of tonnage that can be built. The "equation" is not that simplistic. When "determining" how many ships a world can build, there are a great many factors to consider other than yard capacity and most of those factors are sociological in nature.

The OTU is not a spreadsheet macro. You don't toss a few numbers into a funnel, turn a crank, and pop out an Imperium. The process needs to take into account the contrariness of humanity.

 

[aramis]

Man them.
Leaving aside the meta-game chargen mechansim, does the Imperium even have a draft? Are inhabitants of the worlds the Imperium claims not to rule told to register, wait for lottery draws, report for physicals, appear before boards, and then wait for the telegram/email telling them they've been inducted into the Emperor's Service?

Or does the Imperium "subcontract" out the draft to it's member worlds in accordance with legal precedents and customs dating back to that world's admission?

We know that the draft was instituted by Archduke Dulinor as an Illelish domain-wide reform BEFORE 1107. (we can only guess about the rest.)

 

[Enoki]

I'd think given the range of law levels, the presence of a noble class, and the sorts of governments possible that many worlds have a "Levy" versus a draft, or something similar.

That is, things like every male in high school with a gpa less than say 2.5 gets put in the military at 18. Or, every town / neighborhood / area has to cough up so many people of the right age who are able bodied to put in the military each year.
Others might have universal service of 2 to 4 years. There might be things like buying your way out of service by providing a substitute for yourself too.

Some world with billions of people, over crowing, and a lack of jobs, with a law level of say C and a impersonal bureaucracy for a government would happily institute universal conscription or forced levy into military service as a way to get rid of idle bodies.

On others with low population, little law, and more open government, such things might be unheard of. No reason to expect a world with 10,000 inhabitants to have to put up many, if any, people for military service.

I could also very easily see there being a core of professional "in for life" service personnel too. There could easily be a "foreign legion" sort of units too. These would be government sanctioned mercenaries who get in with few questions asked so long as their mentally and physically capable. I could see such units being the "go to" guys for most small wars and actions.

So, 1100 ships... Let's say 300 personnel to man and service them each... 330,000. That's doable in an empire with hundreds of billions of citizens...

 

[Whipsnade]

We know that the draft was instituted by Archduke Dulinor as an Illelish domain-wide reform BEFORE 1107. (we can only guess about the rest.)

We also know Dulinor's draft was seen as unprecedented and that the Chattering Classes disapproved.

 

[Whipsnade]

So, 1100 ships... Let's say 300 personnel to man and service them each... 330,000. That's doable in an empire with hundreds of billions of citizens...

Not as doable as you'd think.

First, your crew estimates are far too low. Three hundred is just for cruisers, the capital ships quoted require much more. Much more like 4K for a Tigress and 1K to 1.5K for the others. And we haven't counted frozen watches yet.

Service personnel, the 'teeth to tail" ratio, are going to be perhaps ten times the number of crew.

Then there's training, another factor that's hard to stuff into a spreadsheet macro. Yeah, during WW2 the USN was able to take hillbillies and turn them into radiomen and radar operators, but what was the TL "gap" in question? One or two? Are you going to take a kid from a TL 4, 5, or 6 world and train him in a reasonable amount of time to operate, maintain, and repair TL 14 and 15 equipment?

Then there's distance. Are you going to recruit a kid from Lishun to serve aboard a BatRon in Daibei? You're going to man your sector fleet from the sector in question.

You're going to need many more men than you think, you're only going to be able to recruit them from worlds above a certain TL, and you're only going to be able to ship them so far.

Go ahead. Build those 1100 ships in one year. Now man them.

 

[AnotherDilbert]

The thing to keep in the back of your mind is that naval ships in the real world, cost considerably more than do the Space Naval ships do in Traveller.

I don't think so.
A Zumwalt cost ~G$4 ≈ GCr2 to build, that is in line with a small Traveller destroyer.
A Ford class carrier cost ~G$10 ≈ GCr 5 to build. That is far less than a Traveller battleship à GCr 100+.
A single Tigress (GCr 360 ≈ G$700) likely costs more than all warships in the world today, if these numbers are correct (warning: wiki involved).

As a result of that exercise, I estimated that the cost to raise a battalion was about equal to the cost of three Naval Destroyers.

The costs will vary wildly with training and mechanisation. Don't forget the logistics needed to keep the unit in the field.The basic infantry kit is hardly a major cost?

 

[AnotherDilbert]

One thing I hated about this particular process is that shipyard capacity is used for what in the Traveller Universe? Is it ONLY used for hull construction, or is it used for Hull repairs, Hull maintenance, and Hull upgrades? if it is also used for everything I've mentioned above, then the issue really comes down to this:

TCS says it's for building, repairing, and refitting. I have always assumed maintenance also take yard capacity.

But, it's probably only military yard capacity. CT TCS allows capacity to be quickly increased in as you go to war.

 

[AnotherDilbert]

Man them.

Seriously.

Find the bodies those 1100 some odd ships need and then train them enough just to not be dangerous to themselves and their fellows.

1100 capital ships would require about a million crew, most newly recruited and trained.

The US Navy today has about 400 000 personnel (inc. reserves) out of a population of 320 000 000, that is about 1 in 1000 serving.

Amdani alone has 90 000 000 000 inhabitants. If they live to be 100 years old, that is a year class of 900 000 000 people turning 18 every year. If we recruit 1 in 1000 of them (0.1%) that is 900 000 new recruits every year.

Finding the able bodies is hardly a problem. Training them might be. Amdani has about 300 times the population of the US. Can the US Navy train 3000 new recruits a year? At a guess that would be close to trivial.

 

[Condottiere]

Yard capacity will depend on actual orders on the book, and/or government hand outs and subsidies.

Once you lose capacity and/or skilled workers, rebuilding it will take time.

 

[aramis]

1100 capital ships would require about a million crew, most newly recruited and trained.

The US Navy today has about 400 000 personnel (inc. reserves) out of a population of 320 000 000, that is about 1 in 1000 serving.

Amdani alone has 90 000 000 000 inhabitants. If they live to be 100 years old, that is a year class of 900 000 000 people turning 18 every year. If we recruit 1 in 1000 of them (0.1%) that is 900 000 new recruits every year.

Finding the able bodies is hardly a problem. Training them might be. Amdani has about 300 times the population of the US. Can the US Navy train 3000 new recruits a year? At a guess that would be close to trivial.

You need two crews each for sustained operations - blue/gold. Ships generally can be working 11/12 of the year, crews considerably less.

Also, capital ships crews run more than 1000 on a ready basis. So... probably 2 to 3 million crew. Nominal "tail" runs 8 to 12 times the number of men rated as crew needs - 8 for blue/gold, 12 for long-term remote ship ops (plus extra hulls for supplies). Each man needs 1/150 Td of life support supplies per week after the 4th (because 4 weeks is the default), so, 7-10 tons per week per battlecruiser on a minimum once-per-four week replacement schedule,

A fast resupply ship (J5) is probably about 10% of its hull in capacity... so a ARF is is likely to service a 'ron - 8-10, let's call it 10 for safety, like any good admiral - so that's a 1000Td J5 hull with 100 tons cargo and a crew of about 25. (It's got turrets, because of mission danger. no spinals, bays, nor barbettes.) And you want 4x that for actual combat, because you need to have it jump to the courier, then jump to the fleet's planned location (which base may not actually know).

And then you need fuelling auxiliaries. They really can't be better than J4 and do their job... which is not a tanker, but a self-mobile processor and fuelling depot. We can make them with crews of about 15-20... J4 for fleet speed, and about 1000 tons - external inflatables seem the way to go for extra tank space. How many do we need? figure at least one per 'ron. Probably 1 per capship, 1-2 per desron (and a cru-ron has 8-10 cruisers, each with a DE as well, so essentially a desron is built into each cruron and batron)...

And all of these need tail, too.your 1100 warships have 2000-3000 auxiliaries, minimum, possibly more - up to about 5K...

 

[AnotherDilbert]

Not as doable as you'd think.

First, your crew estimates are far too low. Three hundred is just for cruisers, the capital ships quoted require much more. Much more like 4K for a Tigress and 1K to 1.5K for the others. And we haven't counted frozen watches yet.

Service personnel, the 'teeth to tail" ratio, are going to be perhaps ten times the number of crew.

Then there's training, another factor that's hard to stuff into a spreadsheet macro. Yeah, during WW2 the USN was able to take hillbillies and turn them into radiomen and radar operators, but what was the TL "gap" in question? One or two? Are you going to take a kid from a TL 4, 5, or 6 world and train him in a reasonable amount of time to operate, maintain, and repair TL 14 and 15 equipment?

Then there's distance. Are you going to recruit a kid from Lishun to serve aboard a BatRon in Daibei? You're going to man your sector fleet from the sector in question.

You're going to need many more men than you think, you're only going to be able to recruit them from worlds above a certain TL, and you're only going to be able to ship them so far.

Go ahead. Build those 1100 ships in one year. Now man them.

I agree that training is going to be the major problem.

I accept your logistical overhead.

In the example above 1100 capital ships were built by two yards over a period of five years.

These two systems alone has a population of ~170 billion people. If a little over 1 in 1000 of them are serving in the Navy (like the US today) that is about 200 million Navy personnel. The natural replacement rate would be very roughly 20 million. So their Navy bases are used to train 20 million new recruits a year. Over a five year period that would be 100 million new recruits.

The building program would need about 11 million more recruits. I suggest that would be doable over five years.

These recruits all come from these two TL15 worlds (Amdani & Kimel) so should be familiar with TL15 standards.