Originally posted by thrash:
</font><blockquote>quote:</font><hr />Originally posted by rancke:
I have one very good pointer: [Infractructure costs] not so much that a world with population X can't afford to maintain Y ships. That limits how much it can cost considerably.
Circular logic: you're assuming that infrastructure costs are included in the 10% maintenance figure and therefore negligible, when that is the question.</font>[/QUOTE]Not so. In fact, I'm assuming that they're comparable to the cost of maintaining the ships alone. What I'm also assuming is that Cr500 per capita is already a lot for a population to spend on its navy (Though that's more a fact than an assumption). Consequently either infrastructure costs are not included in the Cr500 but negligible or they're included in the Cr500. I assume the second.
As an aside, if you were to claim that infrastructure costs were fairly small (say, an additional Cr100), then I wouldn't mind going along with that. For reasons of my own I would like the total peacetime military expenditure of a government with a government code of 1.0 to be equivalent to 10% of GWP[*], and for that purpose Cr500 is just a tad too low.
[*] That would make the highest possible wartime budget 15%, which would neatly dovetail with Striker.
</font><blockquote>quote:</font><hr />Sure, it's not totally accurate. It's a simplification.
It's a gross over-simplification that ignores the effects that campaigns have on infrastructure and base support. </font>[/QUOTE]Just as TCS does, you mean?
Consider the Islands Clusters Campaign:
* Elysee begins with a Class B starport and a naval base, immediately available to any conqueror, but no navy and thus no fleet maintenance costs -- what pays for their upkeep?
* New Home, which begins with a Class A starport and a naval base, captures Elysee in a bloodless coup. New Home's naval infrastructure holdings have nearly doubled, but its maintenance costs remain exactly the same -- indefinitely.
* Serendipity Belt attacks the New Home fleet at Elysee. New Home manages to retain the system, but at the cost of half its fleet destroyed. Next year's fleet maintenance costs are half of this year's -- but there is no change in the number or type of naval facilities.
What does any of that prove except that the TCS model isn't all that detailed?
Your model is non-sensical, or at best wildly inaccurate, because in it substantial changes in facilities holdings (which you agree cost nearly as much as ships) have no effect whatsoever on their maintenance costs, and substantial changes in budget for upkeep have no effect on their availability (unlike ships, which must be scrapped or placed in ordinary).
It's a lot less inaccurate than your assumption, which provides the pocket empires with fleets that are totally oversized.
</font><blockquote>quote:</font><hr />Your model would have much bigger inaccuracies.
How so, without imposing your assumptions on it?</font>[/QUOTE]By imposing your assumptions on it. You're saying that infrastructure costs are significant. You're saying the naval budget that we know of isn't being used to support it. This means that either the total naval budget is much higher -- a possibility that I reject because it would lead to peacetime budgets that are unreasonably high -- or half the naval budget we know of is actually being used to pay for infrastructure maintenance. Which would mean that the calculated fleet sizes are massively wrong.
My model simply does not consider how much it costs to build and maintain infrastucture or provide base support at all. That's what "it simply ignores the subject completely" means.
But not considering how much it costs and where the money to pay for it is to come from is a fatal flaw in your model.
</font><blockquote>quote:</font><hr />I was hoping for something a bit more substantial. This is just as much an unsupported assertation as anything I've said.
You are making the extraordinary claim that fleet maintenance does not (cannot) represent just what it appears to do. The burden of proof is yours: where are your revised figures, including the factors you've neglected so far?</font>[/QUOTE]I don't accept the burden of proof. I haven't neglected them. I've claimed they don't amount to more than 2% of the original cost of the ships. I do so not because I have worked out a detailed analysis of how many missiles a ship expends each year during peacetime. I admit (no, I state) that I haven't. I do so because I claim that using 7% to pay for this would leave nothing over from the only naval budget that we know of for maintaining the bases. You are the one who claims (by implication) that the budget is larger than what the canonical evidence says. If you want to substantiate that, you're the one that has to prove, not only that 10% is a reasonable figure, but that 5% is an unreasonable one.
In truth, I probably still have the detailed analysis I did for Imperial Navy. I don't see why I should have to post it for you to quibble with before you've shown us your own, however.
I have shown you mine: I claim that your model will give excessively high naval budgets.
</font><blockquote>quote:</font><hr />You're perfectly right. We could assume that the Cr500 per capita is wrong (It's obviously an average anyway). But assuming that would make the fleet sizes wrong.
What fleet sizes are those? The fleet sizes depicted in FFW and other canon sources are entirely consistent with the budget percentages in Striker and the 10% fleet maintenance figure -- as I've already demonstrated in considerable detail. </font>[/QUOTE]But all through this discussion you've insisted that the 10% fleet maintenance figure is wrong, because you've insisted that 10% is only enough to maintain the ships themselves. If you're right in you assumption that infrastructure maintenance cost roughly the same, you're insisting on spending 20% per year (And if you say that infrastructure costs are 2%, then you're saying that the true cost is 12%. In any event, by insisting that 10% is only enough to pay for the ships alone, you're saying that a navy costs more than 10% to maintain. It's all very well to blithely say that you're ignoring infrastructure costs, but it's arrant nonsense to do so. You can't dissasociate the two. Either infrastructure costs are included in the 10% or they not. You can't have them included when it suits you and excluded when it suits you. So which is it?
You seem to be saying that "assuming that Cr500 per capita is wrong invalidates fleet sizes based on Cr500 per capita," which is clearly but trivially true.
The statement "10+X > 10 for X > 0" is also trivially true, yet it's what you seem to be trying to deny.
Chris, what you seem to be saying is so silly that I'm sure I must be misunderstanding you, but I can't for the life of me spot where I'm going wrong.
</font><blockquote>quote:</font><hr />It's not a straw man. The implications of an assumption is crucial to evaluating that assumption.
It is a straw man because you are answering your own objections, not mine.</font>[/QUOTE]What?!? I'm objecting to what I perceive as a flaw in your model. How can that be a straw man? It directly addresses your argument.
Fleet maintenance costs pay for the operations and maintenance of the fleet, for which there are extensive rules covering construction, upkeep, and disposition. They do not pay for bases, nor planetary defenses, nor armies, for which there are no construction, upkeep, or disposition rules in the game. What is so difficult to understand about that?
The available naval budget pays for two things: Ship construction, for which there are extensive rules, and fleet maintenance, for which there is only one, extremely simple, rule. Your assumption, that this one extremely simple rule only covers ship maintenance and not bases and logistics, is only an assumption, not the incntrovertible fact you treat it as (Nor is it a whole set of "extensive rules"). My assumption that it does cover bases and logistics is also just an assumption. The difference is that your assumption entails big discrepancies in the overall picture while my assumption entail small discrepancies.
Hans