Supporting Pacification Campaigns

[rancke]

It is a simple matter, Hans... (Except in the 20th century, and Rome vs Cathage) groups of people ONLY go to war to take valuable resources from others. Simple fighting for denial of access to others has only in the 20th/21st Century been seen as viable. If it was worth fighting, it was worth taking when you're done.

Yes, but the OTU has 20th/21st Century style terrorists. "A Dagger at Efate" shows that. In that adventure, the Ine Givar is trying something in that vein, but a lot less effective than what you describe. Why didn't they just use rhe Dagger to make such an attack? Answer: Because for some reason the chance it has of working is less than the inane attack they did try.

If you bombard a planet into submission, you've just reduced their capture value by orders of magnitude. They know it, you know it. Any single world also knows that a single high speed assault from 2+AU* is a thermonuclear weapon of mass destruction.

Which is a very good reason to limit the to speed of thrusters. Since they're already violating some physical laws, one more won't matter.

But any local population capable of doing it is also aware that any larger unit can afford the losses better than they, and it requires NO special ships. Except for zealots of the most insane kind, it's not MAD, it's Assured Societal Suicide. You take out a population or two, and then the response is an overwhelming black war. The initiator has just guaranteed that their world will get resurfaced as soon as the parent polity finds out.

And if the Imperium uses that tactic, it is the initiator.

Which we know from MTHT, once black-war starts, entire subsectors are obliterated, and literally billions die....

But it takes full fleets to do so, not a handful of subsidized merchants.

The 5FW shows only that the 3I, Daryans, Sword Worlders, Ardenese and Zhodani consider industrial populations the value worth taking. Only the 3I and Zhodani are big enough to not face Assured Societal Suicide from doing planet cracking. Even denial by obliteration is only going to cost you your own in retaliation. Therefore, none of them can consider it viable.

Neither side would consider MAD viable. That's what makes it work.

*2 AU is doable within the 1000 diameter limit of all but the M5-M9IV and A0-M9D stars... in fact, most can get a 3AU burn... A0-M0IV, and all I, II, III IV and V stars have at least 26LM, 3.25 AU, and A0-K5VI and A0-M5V, have at least 46LM, or 5.75 AU... at which point one starts getting insanely fast. Tables in T5....

Please tell me that T5 is not actually going to validate the existence of near-C space drives! Bad enough that they're implied. Making them explicit is just one huge can of worms.

Anyway, bottom line: It doesn't matter why the Imperium won't do it, whether it's because It's Not a Nice Thing to Do and we are Nice People (Yeah, right :devil or because there is very little chance that it will work or because We Like to keep Regina the Way it is Right Now, Thank You Very Much. The salient point is that they won't do it (as the decision to impose an interdict in the first place might also suggest). And if they won't do it, they can't impose a blockade with a single patrol cruiser and they can't retailate when it is shot down with just a subsidized merchant.


Hans

 

[aramis]

And if the Imperium uses that tactic, it is the initiator.

But the Imperium is big enough that if they do it, they can't be wiped out by any given local who tries.

Please tell me that T5 is not actually going to validate the existence of near-C space drives! Bad enough that they're implied. Making them explicit is just one huge can of worms.

T5 continues the Traveller tropes of continuous thrust gravitics-tech drives, and retains the T4 1000 diameter thruster cutoff. It happens to have handy charts showing the 10, 100, and 100 diameter limits of stars.

The unspoken corollary is that this means near-C shuttle-bombs are quite possible around main sequence stars, as one has at least 2 AU.

Using 8LM=1AU (not exact, but close enough), T=2√(D/A) and Traveller's 300,000km LS, that 1G=10m/s, and that 2 AU is D=2*8*60*300000000=288000000000
which gives 339411. seconds, and just over 1PSL. It takes 94 hours to accelerate to it.

At 3 AU available, same sloppy figures: 1G: 415692. sec, and roughly 1.3 PSL, 1.8 Megatons per ton mass. A single large cruiser (100KTd) can thus hit masses of 1 million metric tons, and thus impact with about 2 million megatons. That's a world shattering KA-WHUMP.
at 6G: 169705.sec, 10182337.m/s, 3.3PSL, and 10 megatons per metric ton... again, 10 million tons TNT equivalent... and fast enough to make kinetic intercept problematic.

One heavy cruiser can kill a whole bloody planet given a week of acceleration.

Anyway, bottom line: It doesn't matter why the Imperium won't do it, whether it's because It's Not a Nice Thing to Do and we are Nice People (Yeah, right :devil or because there is very little chance that it will work or because We Like to keep Regina the Way it is Right Now, Thank You Very Much. The salient point is that they won't do it (as the decision to impose an interdict in the first place might also suggest). And if they won't do it, they can't impose a blockade with a single patrol cruiser and they can't retailate when it is shot down with just a subsidized merchant.


Hans

There is no proof they haven't, and none that they won't. Only that they didn't during the 5FW. Remember, the absence of evidence is not evidence of absence. You're arguing that they never did because they didn't during the 5FW. Nothing states that.

The use of black war, once a polity reaches sector+ in size, is no longer suicidal, as the ability to prosecute a war past those distances is much reduced. A significantly smaller government has no recourse against such strikes obliterating them, while the larger government can and will obliterate them in return if they try it. Not "Mutual Assured Destruction"... for the smaller party it is assured self destruction without significiant risk of destruction for the larger party.

That the 3I and the ZC don't use it in the 5FW merely shows that it would have destroyed what they wanted. That the smaller ones don't is merely a sign that think they couldn't survive the retaliation. In the 5FW, it's not important enough to use it in the war.

In the late 2CW, it is...

 

[rancke]

But the Imperium is big enough that if they do it, they can't be wiped out by any given local who tries.

There is the not unreasonable possibility that the Imperium wouldn't want even one of its major worlds wiped out.

One heavy cruiser can kill a whole bloody planet given a week of acceleration.

The next question becomes, do we want to game in a universe where one heavy cruiser can kill a whole bloody planet and the Ine Givar can turn a cargo hold full of steel rods into nuclear missile equivalents? I certainly don't.

There is no proof they haven't, and none that they won't. Only that they didn't during the 5FW. Remember, the absence of evidence is not evidence of absence. You're arguing that they never did because they didn't during the 5FW. Nothing states that.

There's no proof, granted. But in many cases absence of evidence is most certainly evidence of absence. If the Ine Givar doesn't use a captured Broadsword Class cruiser to launch a barrage of near-C steel rods on Regina but rather launches the Dagger itself, that means that there is a reason why they didn't. And it's evidently not that the Ine Givar doesn't do that sort of thing, since what they did is exactly that sort of thing, only much less likely to succeed. Or was it much less likely to succeed? Maybe they chose to go with Plan B because Plan A wasn't nearly as likely to succeed.


Hans

 

[BraselC5048]

For the figures I posted, I had a hard time coming up with any real-world data. I just sort of guessed/estimated how many vehicles a division would have, and added that to the tonnage for troops. For supplies, I estimated how much ammo a division would use (artillery shells etc. included). At least it does agree well with numbers from TNE's World Tamer's Handbook.

Now that you mention it, 1/4 ton per solder is probably too little. Maybe reducing the amount of tonnage needed for life support? Keeping the troops occupied and sane for the trip is probably a big issue, likely one that hasn't been fully solved. Perhaps medication of some kind? Also, none of those transport figures include supplies for more then a few days fighting, at most. You'll need more ships to bring those.

Most military transport IMTU is provided by civilian freighters, almost always 5000 tons or larger. Anything much smaller and you can't transport enough troops. Long term buildups are relatively easy, but launching a major planetary assault (60+ divisions) requires a substantial fraction of an empire's shipping. Any planet for a populating of more then about 2 billion is likely impossible to capture. Even if those large freighters aren't subsidized, there shouldn't be any problem in getting them to be used for transporting troops during wartime (never has been in any war in real life).

I do have one question, though; if a large number of divisions are engaged on a planet, and their supply reserves dwindle to nothing, and then they aren't resupplied for a week (supplies usually come once a week
), what would the consequences be? That ended up happening in a campaign I was playing as a result of raiding supply lines.

 

[Icosahedron]

You need a full scale invasion to do that. Which takes a lot more than just one patrol cruiser. Which is the point I was trying to make.

Once you've done that, you need to prevent the interdicted world from building more system defense vessels in secret down on the surface and from buying military vessels from outsiders. Which is easy enough to do if the world has a population level of 5 or 6 or 7, but gets hard when it can call on the economic resources of hundreds or thousands of millions. You really can't blockade a high-population world on the cheap, unless its TL is quite low.

I'm not saying the Imperium can't do it. I'm saying it can't do it unless it commits some serious assets.

Hans

I thought we were discussing pacification/occupation after invasion?

In my scenario, occupation of the starport is what prevents shipbuilding. Shipbuilding requires huge facilities. You will already know where they are and can occupy them for your own use, or destroy them from orbit. Trying to build shipbuilding facilities will take a very long time and can be thwarted too easily to make it a worthwhile proposition.

The whole point of interdiction is to maintain space superiority. If you haven't got superiority, you haven't got interdiction. If you have got superiority, you can maintain it with a handful of ships.

I agree that you won't get complete control with a single ship*, it would be too easy to decoy - though it would still dissuade the majority of trade - but a small task force might be sufficient for effective interdiction, once you've established space superiority.

*Is complete control even possible? Every Red Zone game involves somebody running the blockade. However, the occasional successful blockade runner won't maintain the planet's interstellar trade - certainly not for those high pop worlds.

 

[Matt123]

For the figures I posted...

Interesting thoughts, ta.

I do have one question, though; if a large number of divisions are engaged on a planet, and their supply reserves dwindle to nothing, and then they aren't resupplied for a week (supplies usually come once a week), what would the consequences be? That ended up happening in a campaign I was playing as a result of raiding supply lines.

It pretty much depend on what pressure the divisions are under. If engaged by En forces, they may well collapse either through lack of ammo, spares or food. There are plenty of WWII examples of surrounded divisions holding out till the last bullet, especially when limited quarter is expected eg the Russian Front. At Stalingrad the German divisions were still fighting months after their heavy equipment stopped working, they were dieing of starvation, cold and out of ammo before the remnants surrendered.

If there is no/limited military pressure such an occupation force facing rebels, the only real problem is food. Ammo & spares supplies will not be stretched. Mitigating the food supply shortage, generally occupation forces are dispersed making "foraging" practical, if unpopular with the locals.

 

[rancke]

I thought we were discussing pacification/occupation after invasion?

It morphed into discussing interdiction for when you decide that invasion and/or subsequent occupation is unfeasible.

In my scenario, occupation of the starport is what prevents shipbuilding. Shipbuilding requires huge facilities.

Why? Is there something magic about starship components that require vastly more space to assemble than other artifacts of comparable size?

You will already know where they are and can occupy them for your own use, or destroy them from orbit. Trying to build shipbuilding facilities will take a very long time and can be thwarted too easily to make it a worthwhile proposition.

If you're trying to conceal the building of spaceships, wouldn't you camouflage your shipbuilding facilities against detection from above? I would.

The whole point of interdiction is to maintain space superiority. If you haven't got superiority, you haven't got interdiction.

And if you have the resources of an entire high-population world and the requisite technology, you can build ships. If you don't have the requisite technology but do have the resources of an entire high-population world, you can buy ships (Yes, communication to make a deal with a procurer would be hampered by a blockade, but where there's money, there's a way).

Now, I'm not saying you can build monitors and orbital fortresses or buy cruisers and battleships. But you certainly can build or buy enough to deal with a lone patrol ship.

If you have got superiority, you can maintain it with a handful of ships.

You can if they are big enough. A handful of patrol ships won't do it. A squadron of cruisers probably would.


Hans

 

[Matt123]

You need a full scale invasion to do that. Which takes a lot more than just one patrol cruiser. Which is the point I was trying to make.

Once you've done that, you need to prevent the interdicted world from building more system defense vessels in secret down on the surface and from buying military vessels from outsiders. Which is easy enough to do if the world has a population level of 5 or 6 or 7, but gets hard when it can call on the economic resources of hundreds or thousands of millions. You really can't blockade a high-population world on the cheap, unless its TL is quite low.

I'm not saying the Imperium can't do it. I'm saying it can't do it unless it commits some serious assets.

None of which can assist the interdicted world to re-establish its interstellar trade.

Lets assume the interdicted world has a Trillion Credit Squadron as a PDF AND retains the Starport to build and maintain a jump capable fleet. The 3I Navy can easily and effectively respond by sending a single 400tn Patrol Cruiser (with a supply ship to ensure a safe return trip) to announce the interdiction. The message is clear, the 3I doesn't care about your PDF, the 3I controls your trade.

Any multi-ship owning merchant company shipping to this world can be caught by effective patrolling of every other system within J3. That might take another dozen 400tn Patrol Cruisers.

Of course merchants might open fire on Patrol Cruisers, as might PDF escorts, but its a big leap from blockade running to declaring war on the 3I. Pick on one 400tn Patrol Cruiser and you will answer to the entire Sector Navy. Its very expensive for a world to lose its Trillion Credit PDF. Almost as bad as a merchant company finding they have been declared outlaws and their mortgages have been called in for using the banks security (the ship) for illegal activities.

I think I was a bit pessimistic when I suggested 95% of trade would stop going there. On reflection it would be more like 99.99% plus of the total tonnage imported would be stopped. Occasional rogue Free Traders blockade running can't do much more than bring in the Great Leaders preferred cigars.

 

[aramis]

Concealing the welding and cutting equipment would be a rather tough job (Tough, not impossible). We're talking about being able to cut, assemble, and weld plates of metal up to 30m long for even the smallest of ships, and several cm thickness... high power, and depending upon specific mode, potentially generating significant RF emissions and HUGE thermal loads. On a vacuum world, it's going to be pretty obvious... or deep underground, in which case, how do you get it out?

Assuming a shell of only 2cm thickness, you're still looking at some hefty bulk metal being moved. The mining gets targeted... it's easier to detect and larger scale... and without the raw materials, nothing gets made.

A type S is roughly 1285 square meters of exterior hull... at a mere 2cm, that's almost 26 cubic meters of metal for the shell alone... and assuming it's a steel hull, about 180 tons... not counting any interior bulkheads. And that's one of the very easiest hull forms to make. 5 flat plates.

Any shipyard, wet or aerospace, has the tools needed for mounting the parts... but getting the parts too and from is not readily hidden against TL 8 orbital surveilance... with a pixel being under a 10cm dimension...

The question becomes whether it can be hidden long enough to matter.

And in the case of a single picket, it's good enough to simply track and report all landing ships, then have that information spread throughout the sector... those violating get one trip... and then soon as the news catches them, sure, they land... and all seems well, until the patrol cutters of that system hover over the merchant while the 3I reposesses the ship on charges of treason.

Heck, once the SDG chips go online, they have their transponder tell the merchant's to scream "My crew violated an interdict! I'm Stolen!"... No rest for the wicked then...

 

[rancke]

None of which can assist the interdicted world to re-establish its interstellar trade.

Being able to break the blockade seems like a step in that direction.

Lets assume the interdicted world has a Trillion Credit Squadron as a PDF AND retains the Starport to build and maintain a jump capable fleet. The 3I Navy can easily and effectively respond by sending a single 400tn Patrol Cruiser (with a supply ship to ensure a safe return trip) to announce the interdiction. The message is clear, the 3I doesn't care about your PDF, the 3I controls your trade.

These are the same people the Imperium is interdicting because of their intractable hostility towards it?

Any multi-ship owning merchant company shipping to this world can be caught by effective patrolling of every other system within J3. That might take another dozen 400tn Patrol Cruisers.

Not true. If the potential profit is worth it, there's nothing easier than penetrating a screen like that. Simply use deep space jumps. With or without deep space fuel caches, as the logistics dictates.

Of course merchants might open fire on Patrol Cruisers, as might PDF escorts, but its a big leap from blockade running to declaring war on the 3I. Pick on one 400tn Patrol Cruiser and you will answer to the entire Sector Navy.

Yeah... that's why the Somali don't attack ships in international waters, right? And why the US kept suffering the impressment of American sailors by the Royal Navy. And why throughout history every small nation has invariably knuckled under to the bigger neighbor in any and all situations.

People often don't act rationally in these situations. You really can't expect anyone who commands a CruRon to take orders from a patrol ship, no matter what the implied threat. And, of course, the underdog doesn't actually have to win over the bully, he just has to make it more costly to win than the bully cares to pay.

"Answer to the entire Sector Fleet[*]" sounds impressive, but a lot of it is tied up elsewhere and it costs money to set the rest in motion. Money the sector duke might want to spend on other things. He's more likely to leave it to the local duke.

[*] There is no Sector Navy. It's the Imperial Navy's sector fleet.​

Its very expensive for a world to lose its Trillion Credit PDF.

If you're not going to use it, what the point of having it?

Almost as bad as a merchant company finding they have been declared outlaws and their mortgages have been called in for using the banks security (the ship) for illegal activities.

Not going to happen to any of the megacorporations. Nor to any company that keeps its visits clandestine. But, sure, the interdicted world is going to have to pay through the nose for anything it gets.


Hans

 

[rancke]

And in the case of a single picket, it's good enough to simply track and report all landing ships, then have that information spread throughout the sector... those violating get one trip... and then soon as the news catches them, sure, they land... and all seems well, until the patrol cutters of that system hover over the merchant while the 3I reposesses the ship on charges of treason.

Odd how pirate ships that actually land in a starport pretending to be legitimate merchant ships don't leave behind enough clues to track them down, but merchant vessels that are only observed visually at a distance can be identified with absolute certainty.

And that doesn't address my point about owners who are powerful enough to avoid the consequences.

Heck, once the SDG chips go online, they have their transponder tell the merchant's to scream "My crew violated an interdict! I'm Stolen!"... No rest for the wicked then...

What chips are those? The ones that contradict several bits of CT canon that feature false transponders? The TNE chips that is a huge mess of contradictions? Those chips? You don't really believe in unforgable transponders, do you? Not in a universe where pirates are a perennial problem, I hope.


Hans

 

[aramis]

Odd how pirate ships that actually land in a starport pretending to be legitimate merchant ships don't leave behind enough clues to track them down, but merchant vessels that are only observed visually at a distance can be identified with absolute certainty.

And that doesn't address my point about owners who are powerful enough to avoid the consequences.


What chips are those? The ones that contradict several bits of CT canon that feature false transponders? The TNE chips that is a huge mess of contradictions? Those chips? You don't really believe in unforgable transponders, do you? Not in a universe where pirates are a perennial problem, I hope.


Hans

They are not forgeable... but they are potentially corruptible. One could fake a short bit, but since they are conversing sophonts trained to pass certain data on.... they are forgeable at TL17+, but Sambqys is unlikely to be willing to forge them...

They don't violate ANY CT canon; they don't start implementation until the post 5FW era, which is in the no-mans land between CT and MT.

They are canon, whether YOU like them or not, Hans. Just as much as the devastated worlds of Hard Times are, and the gravitic constant acceleration drives.

The typical merchant isn't going to have had the time and inclination to forge nor fake them...

And there is little reason ship can't be identified once it's in orbit. It's actually HARDER to ID a ship through atmosphere than in orbit. But if the world has no Atmo, it should be, provided the PP is on, IDable pretty easily in orbit. It's natural drive RF harmonics are going to be as clear a signal as they are for subs. (And subs can be ID'd rather positively by their RF signals and sonar peculiarities.)

If they spent the extra for the chameleon hull, yeah, it's a bit harder to do the visual... but you can still look for dead pixel regions. Keep in mind, the default sensor kit includes a pretty darned powerful visual kit, IR kit, and imaging radar/ladar. (AEMS and PEMS with wonderfully long ranges...)

We're not talking IDing from 2 LS... we're talking IDing from 50,000km or so... well within firing range under most editions.

Besides, it's best for a picket to wait til a ship is on boost to lob missiles at it... it presents an asymmetric warfare environment, with the advantage to the upper ship.

 

[rancke]

They are not forgeable... but they are potentially corruptible.

Not according to canon. Every transponder has two chips, an active and a passive control chip against which the active chip can control itself. [Survival Margin, p. 69]

They don't violate ANY CT canon; they don't start implementation until the post 5FW era, which is in the no-mans land between CT and MT.

"Prototype SDG transponders were in final testing in 1086, and with the passing laws in 1088, the new transponders [...] became mandatory equipment on al spacecraft operating within Imperial boundaries. These were installed as standard equipment on new construction vessels, and over the course of a 12-year phase-in period, were retro-fitted to all existing vessels..." [ibid, p. 70-71]​

So by 1100 every vessel in the Imperium supposedly had them. Which contradicts every mention of fake transponders in CT and MT canon, and makes piracy completely impossible. I mean, things are hard enough for the poor pirates as it is, but that's just peanuts to forcing them to fly around in a ship that constantly broadcasts its true identity and recent whereabouts.

They are canon, whether YOU like them or not, Hans. Just as much as the devastated worlds of Hard Times are, and the gravitic constant acceleration drives.

Just as it is canon that the Imperium's major neighbors all meekly accepted the installation of black boxes manufactured in the Imperium, not only in the percentage of their ships that actually crossed the border into the Imperium but also in every other one of their star- AND space-craft. Instead of, oh, I don't know, refusing and retaliating by forbidding any ship carrying an Imperial transponder from entering their territory (followed by the Imperial megacorporations pressuring the emperor into abandoning that ludicrous scheme).

(So how to reconcile the deyo transponders with CT and MT? Here's my suggestion: The chips are touted as being unforgable, but they're really not. However, they're still better than the previous system, so they're used and the neighbors steal and reverse-engineer their own versions.)

And there is little reason ship can't be identified once it's in orbit. It's actually HARDER to ID a ship through atmosphere than in orbit. But if the world has no Atmo, it should be, provided the PP is on, IDable pretty easily in orbit. It's natural drive RF harmonics are going to be as clear a signal as they are for subs. (And subs can be ID'd rather positively by their RF signals and sonar peculiarities.)

Your assumptions appear to be wrong, or we'd have no pirates at all, would we?


Hans


PS. In case someone wonders how I can use pirates in my arguments when I'm such an anti-pirate kind of guy: I'm not anti-pirate. I'm very much in favor of having pirates in the TU. Pirates are FUN[*]! I just don't believe they would work as advertised if the TU was real. But it isn't real, so the problem isn't as big as it would have been if it was. I can argue that there are pirates in the OTU, because canon says so (Just don't ask me to justify some of the more egregious examples).

[*] Pirates are fun for RPG purposes. No approval of actual piratical activities, past, present, or future is expressed in this sentiment.​

 

[Matt123]

Being able to break the blockade seems like a step in that direction.

Well, yes if importing the Great Leaders favourite cigars is going to help you keep your vital industry supplied with imported material.

Otherwise no, the few Captains of multi megacredit ships prepared to risk their asset, cannot supply even a fraction of 1% of the previous trade.

Not true. If the potential profit is worth it, there's nothing easier than penetrating a screen like that. Simply use deep space jumps. With or without deep space fuel caches, as the logistics dictates.

So you are suggesting the risk of losing an otherwise legal, profitable, multi megacredit trading assett is worth the profit from blockade running. I disagree. Those that are preparred to risk blockade running will be those with little to lose, they are already illegal or desperado's resigned to the consequences if they are caught.

The obvious consequences of course range from death to losing your very expensive ship and being locked up for a very long time. All for a profit that in no way will exceed what you could make if you just sold your own ship.

The far better line of work for those prepared to take the risk, is freelance blockade enforcement. Especially if blockade runners are as frequent as you predict! Work in pairs and just take thier ships boat or air-raft (like piracy, but legal...). You might even get recognition/rewards from the local Nobility and free repairs/maintenance/reloads from the Navy...

Yeah... that's why the Somali don't attack ships in international waters, right?

Somali Pirates are ex fisherman and merchant crew whom have resorted to piracy through being forced out of merchant sea work and having their fishing grounds raped by international fishing fleets. They are not blockade runners, Somalia is not interdicted. Yet I can assure you the Somali Pirates have never attacked a patrol vessel.

People often don't act rationally in these situations. You really can't expect anyone who commands a CruRon to take orders from a patrol ship, no matter what the implied threat.

No, I expect the CruRon Commander to be following orders set by his Military/Political Command structure. Not only that but I expect him to be trained to act rationally under stress and be able to make sound judgements in short timeframes with minimal information. In addition to that, if the Great Leader does not desire war with the 3I, the CruRons Rules of Engagement will clearly state "Do not shoot at 3I Navy ships." For clarity I guess the Great Leader could add "regardless that the ship is only 400tn."

So yes, I do expect a hostile CruRon acting under orders to take orders from a 3I Patrol Cruiser. With the obvious exception of the Political Leaders being prepared to go to war.

And, of course, the underdog doesn't actually have to win over the bully, he just has to make it more costly to win than the bully cares to pay.

"Answer to the entire Sector Fleet
[*]" sounds impressive, but a lot of it is tied up elsewhere and it costs money to set the rest in motion. Money the sector duke might want to spend on other things. He's more likely to leave it to the local duke.

The Sector Fleet is not dispursed and tied up elsewhere, thats the job of the Sub-Sector Fleets (both elements of the Imperial Navy...). Sub-sector Fleets fight small fires, patrol & act as trip wire forces for Sector Fleets. While the combat power in the Sector Fleet (BatRons, CruRons, Etc) is kept close to hand ready for war fighting.

Where a local world chooses to engage in war vs the 3I, taking out its low to mid tech Defence Fleet makes for a great live fire exercise. Cost isn't an issue, the fleets exist and are usually engaged in Fleet exercises anyway.

If you're not going to use it, what the point of having it?

The 3I justification for having a PDF is to defend against external threats, not to throw your muscle around with the 3I. If your Great Leader is starting to think otherwise it might be time for a diplomatic visit from at BatRon of 4 TL15 Tigress Dreadnoughts plus supporting CruRons.

Actually thats probably overkill. Just send a couple of Fleet Carriers with around 600 TL15 fighters and a couple of escorting Light Cruisers. The diplomatic point will be made and if war vs the 3I is declared, the fighters will make short work of any opposition before attacking military ground targets.

Not going to happen to any of the megacorporations. Nor to any company that keeps its visits clandestine. But, sure, the interdicted world is going to have to pay through the nose for anything it gets.

Again, the volumes shiped will be miniscule compared to before the interdiction. And the profits made will be miniscule compared to what is being risked. In the case of megacorps, open defiance of 3I policies did not get them to where they are today.

Do a risk/return analysis. You will find its far better to just shift the megacorps merchants to new markets. Not to mention that successful large business runs as a system, not a series of speculative adventures hoping for "the big one". Thats the exclusive realm of PC level activities.

 

[rancke]

Well, yes if importing the Great Leaders favourite cigars is going to help you keep your vital industry supplied with imported material.

Otherwise no, the few Captains of multi megacredit ships prepared to risk their asset, cannot supply even a fraction of 1% of the previous trade.

Do you have any canonical information about how important interstellar trade is? Volume, value, kind? If so, I'd be right pleased to know what it is. Hard Tmies implies that it can be vital if the world is dependent on technology for keeping up life support equipment, but if that's the case, the interdict is going to kill off the population anyway, so why bother with the blockade? Why not go straight for the orbital bombardment? From the trade tables, much of interstellar trade is luxury trade in the first place.

So you are suggesting the risk of losing an otherwise legal, profitable, multi megacredit trading asset is worth the profit from blockade running. I disagree.

You're arguing without evidence, though. How do you know what the profit is?

If someone is prepared to pay MCr12,000 (that's about twice the going rate)for a squadron of 1000T destroyers, someone is going to want to pocket that MCr6,000 profit. That's simply human nature. Demand and supply.

Those that are preparred to risk blockade running will be those with little to lose, they are already illegal or desperado's resigned to the consequences if they are caught.

Or people who believe that they won't get caught, or that enough will remain uncaught to pay for the loss of the ones that do get caught. I said "if the profit is commensurate with the risks" or words to that effect.

Very few people are resigned to the consequences of getting caught. Some of them may be unrealistic in their expectations, but most of them will expect to get away with it. That's human nature too.

The obvious consequences of course range from death to losing your very expensive ship and being locked up for a very long time. All for a profit that in no way will exceed what you could make if you just sold your own ship.

And again, how do you know what the potential profits are? The customers have to pay your price or go without. That's a really strong bargaining position.

The far better line of work for those prepared to take the risk, is freelance blockade enforcement. Especially if blockade runners are as frequent as you predict! Work in pairs and just take thier ships boat or air-raft (like piracy, but legal...). You might even get recognition/rewards from the local Nobility and free repairs/maintenance/reloads from the Navy...

And this is cheaper for the navy than employing their own assets how?

No, I expect the CruRon Commander to be following orders set by his Military/Political Command structure. Not only that but I expect him to be trained to act rationally under stress and be able to make sound judgements in short timeframes with minimal information. In addition to that, if the Great Leader does not desire war with the 3I, the CruRons Rules of Engagement will clearly state "Do not shoot at 3I Navy ships." For clarity I guess the Great Leader could add "regardless that the ship is only 400tn."

What makes you think the Great Leader won't interpret the Imperium putting his world under interdict as a hostile act?

So yes, I do expect a hostile CruRon acting under orders to take orders from a 3I Patrol Cruiser. With the obvious exception of the Political Leaders being prepared to go to war.

You didn't answer me the first time. This IS the same world that is being interdicted for getting in the Imperium's face in the first place, right?

The Sector Fleet is not dispersed and tied up elsewhere, thats the job of the Sub-Sector Fleets (both elements of the Imperial Navy...). Sub-sector Fleets fight small fires, patrol & act as trip wire forces for Sector Fleets. While the combat power in the Sector Fleet (BatRons, CruRons, Etc) is kept close to hand ready for war fighting.

The sector fleet is tied up at a dozen subsector capitals and a score of bases, being kept ready to react if the Big Neighbor attacks. And sending it off is going to cut into the sector duke's funds.

Where a local world chooses to engage in war vs the 3I, taking out its low to mid tech Defence Fleet makes for a great live fire exercise. Cost isn't an issue, the fleets exist and are usually engaged in Fleet exercises anyway.

It's still going to cost money.

The 3I justification for having a PDF is to defend against external threats, not to throw your muscle around with the 3I.

Oh, the SDBs are for when the Imperium has smashed the original system defense fleet and left again, leaving behind one piddling patrol ship. If the Imperium didn't want its high-population members to "throw their weight about", it shouldn't permit them naval budgets that can pay for system fleets that are five times bigger than the average numbered Imperial fleet. (Yes, 60% of 70% of 3% of GWP allows worlds like Trin to pay for something a lot bigger than the fleets described in MT:Rebellion Sourcebook). Granted, a sector fleet has more than five numbered fleets. The Spinward Marches, for instance, has 11 (Or 22 if you count the reserve fleets. Or 29 if you count the duchy navies; but there's no evidence to say how big those other fleets are). Still, smashing a planetary navy is going to cost. And you don't want to make the other high-population worlds believe that you might do the same to them. It has been argued that the high-population worlds ARE the Imperium. They're the ones that funds and build the ships that go into the Imperium's fleets.

If your Great Leader is starting to think otherwise it might be time for a diplomatic visit from at BatRon of 4 TL15 Tigress Dreadnoughts plus supporting CruRons.

And as I mentioned before (you must have missed it), there are no examples in history of small nations defying bigger neighbors in the face of steep odds, is there?

(Side note: There are eight units to a Tigress squadron).

Actually thats probably overkill. Just send a couple of Fleet Carriers with around 600 TL15 fighters and a couple of escorting Light Cruisers. The diplomatic point will be made and if war vs the 3I is declared, the fighters will make short work of any opposition before attacking military ground targets.

That depends on the tech level of the world. If it's Trin or Mora or Glisten or Rhylanor, they'd laugh themselves silly over something that size. If it's Dodds, its system defenses are going down in flames (unless they've been smart enough to buy TL15 ships from Trin; if they have, they're not only going to be able to handle a decent sized task force (nowhere near a full numbered fleet, though; TL7 credits just don't buy a lot of TL15 hardware) but they just might have powerful friends on Trin putting pressure on the duke.)

Do a risk/return analysis. You will find its far better to just shift the megacorps merchants to new markets. Not to mention that successful large business runs as a system, not a series of speculative adventures hoping for "the big one". Thats the exclusive realm of PC level activities.

You DO have exhaustive figures about the potential profits, it seems, since you can make such a positive statement. Care to share with the rest of us?


Hans

 

[Captain Midnight]

Going back to the initial discussion topic (since I have zero interest in going through another version of the eternal piracy debate or the high-speed bombardment debate), there are various technological issues that will come to bear on the issue. What are some of those issues, you might ask?

Identification of locals. Presumably, if a counter-insurgent group is operating with TL approaching Imperial, they'll be able to implement some sort of identity-verification measure that includes genetic scans. I've read that biometric ID became a major factor in dealing with insurgents in Iraq, and it seems logical that it would be a major priority for any sort of occupying power. They can talk up the benefits to be gained (medical diagnosis, easy personal credit, datanet access, etc.), but they can also decline to release anyone taken into custody without "tagging" him and entering him into their registry. There are also ways to share large quantities of information rapidly on a planet-wide level, and to make breaking an ID protocol extremely difficult, albeit not totally impossible.

Ease of interrogation. CT/MT (maybe other versions) has "truth drug", which makes interrogation guaranteed effective... and if you can use it as a basis for a loyalty oath, and for regular loyalty checks, and people know they're going to be checked out with it, that changes the entire picture. There are also psionic methods, perhaps not so easily available for Imperial forces (though not impossible -- note that even the 3I has decided that psionic powers are useful, and in some time periods, was enthusiastic about them), but if you're playing in a situation where psionics aren't contraindicated... telepaths make awesome interrogators.

Less complicated logistical issues. OK, your militants control the local equivalent of the Khyber Pass, and will ambush anything coming along the pathetic road net. Imperial forces couldn't care less, as grav trucks will fly over and/or around, at altitudes you can't reach. The POL issues are also reduced, as are (potentially) ammunition issues, so the support load required is reduced as well. Maybe you can set up an ambush close to a base, but the ambushers better watch out for neural activity sensors.

Extrapolating from current situations (or historical ones) is sometimes useful, but sometimes there are really and truly technological game-changers.

 

[Icosahedron]

Is there something magic about starship components that require vastly more space to assemble than other artifacts of comparable size?

Canon suggests that shipbuilding is restricted to starports, and large ones at that. Furthermore, ports capable of shipbuilding are of strategic importance.
This suggests to me that a considerable investment of time, money and resources is required to develop a shipbuilding industry.

If you're trying to conceal the building of spaceships, wouldn't you camouflage your shipbuilding facilities against detection from above? I would.

If such camouflage were possible, yes, but in the face of the above observation, I'm not convinced it is possible.

And if you have the resources of an entire high-population world and the requisite technology, you can build ships. If you don't have the requisite technology but do have the resources of an entire high-population world, you can buy ships (Yes, communication to make a deal with a procurer would be hampered by a blockade, but where there's money, there's a way).
Now, I'm not saying you can build monitors and orbital fortresses or buy cruisers and battleships. But you certainly can build or buy enough to deal with a lone patrol ship.

You can begin to build ships, but as soon as you do, your attempts are discovered and destroyed from orbit.
We're in agreement that a lone patrol ship isn't being discussed.

A handful of patrol ships won't do it. A squadron of cruisers probably would.
Hans

Depends on the strength of the interdicted world. For a world under pop 5 with effectively no air/space military capability, a single monitor with a flight of fighters might be all that's necessary.
OTOH, a pop 9+ world with the capability to produce or import a significant space navy might need a significantly sized task force to successfully interdict it.

devil: All the more reason to drastcally reduce the world's capabilities before you interdict it. In fact, if the planet is so intractible and is going to tie up all those resources for an indefinite period, why not just cut your losses, bomb it down to pop 0 and start again from scratch with a new colony. Maybe the next world will think a bit harder about negotiating a trade deal... /:devil

 

[Matt123]

Do you have any canonical information about how important interstellar trade is?

Wow. Seriously. Wow.

I can refer to canon explanations of how the 3I started and why. I can refer to canons focus on Merchants as one of the key careers. I can look up numerous canon books and get quotes just from the introductions. This one from Book 0, pg 8 "Introduction to Traveller", the very first sentance.

"Traveller is a science-fiction role-playing game set in the distant future, when humanity has made the leap to the stars and interstellar travel is as common as international travel is today."

Of course you could try arguing that was written in 1981 and international travel was not very common back then. Or perhaps that the presence of international travel does not mean there was any corresponding trade shipments. Best of luck with that.

Volume, value, kind? If so, I'd be right pleased to know what it is.

I know you have played with spreadsheets and engaged in debates on how to establish these figures. I'm not about to persuade you with quantitative data. I can however discuss qualitative data at length.

Hard Tmies implies that it can be vital if the world is dependent on technology for keeping up life support equipment ...snip

And why pick an extreme as an example. But regardless if you as the interdictor are concerned, let through life support equipment and medical supplies. If you like, let them import anything they like, just ban exports, that alone will cripple the economy.

You're arguing without evidence, though. How do you know what the profit is?

If someone is prepared to pay MCr12,000 (that's about twice the going rate)for a squadron of 1000T destroyers, someone is going to want to pocket that MCr6,000 profit. That's simply human nature. Demand and supply.

And how do you know someone is prepared to pay that much for a squadron of Destroyers? Where is your hard evidence and examples of widespread Destroyer importing by interdicted worlds.

Or people who believe that they won't get caught, or that enough will remain uncaught to pay for the loss of the ones that do get caught. I said "if the profit is commensurate with the risks" or words to that effect.

And the risk is the loss of your starship. I note the example above involves using someone elses starship (the Destroyers). Can you think of any 80tn cargos that will pay 20MCr for the delivery service ??? If you can, I'll consider risking my clapped out 20MCr Free Trader to deliver that.

Very few people are resigned to the consequences of getting caught. Some of them may be unrealistic in their expectations, but most of them will expect to get away with it. That's human nature too.

lol. You are not describing your typical multi-millionaire. Your typical business owner with a multi-megacredit asset. Your typical Captain used to taking responsibility for the lives of his/her passengers & crew. Or anyone that has convinced a financier he/she is worthy of being trusted to repay many, many megacredits.

In short, this is unconvincing. And I say this willing to accept there will be exceptions, as already noted in previous posts. But the exceptions don't drive interstellar commerce.

And again, how do you know what the potential profits are? The customers have to pay your price or go without. That's a really strong bargaining position.

Well, if you are prepared to pay a price that reflects that I am about to risk my home, my business, my credit rating, my legal status, my life, my freedom and my chosen way of life as a Starfarer. Well sure. The cost is 20MCr per 80 tons delivered. 50% up front, 50% on delivery.

And this is cheaper for the navy than employing their own assets how?

Pirating the blockade runners for thier ships boat shouldn't cost the Navy anything. Any why would you consider what are in effect Letters of Marque as an either/or choice. Most RL examples involved Privateers AND Nation State Navy.

What makes you think the Great Leader won't interpret the Imperium putting his world under interdict as a hostile act?

As well he should. He should have kept the diplomatic efforts up and more importantly, paid his taxes.

You didn't answer me the first time. This IS the same world that is being interdicted for getting in the Imperium's face in the first place, right?

In the context of my quoted paragraph it didn't make sense. I chose to delete my original reply in the interests of keeping my post shorter.

Happy to answer but you will need to explain the question a bit more.

The sector fleet is tied up at a dozen subsector capitals and a score of bases, being kept ready to react if the Big Neighbor attacks. And sending it off is going to cut into the sector duke's funds.

And your canon referances are? FFW demonstrates that penny packets are be defeated in detail in a major war where your opponent concentrates their forces. Mind you most strategists can tell you that.

Oh, the SDBs are for when the Imperium has smashed the original system defense fleet and left again, leaving behind one piddling patrol ship.

Lol, I never suggested you FINISH with a Patrol Cruiser. You START with a Patrol Cruiser. In many cases one can be optimistic that differances will be resolved to the 3I's satisfaction well before it becomes neccesary to crush the system defences. Why shift in the fleet when its not needed.

If the Imperium didn't want its high-population members to "throw their weight about", it shouldn't permit them naval budgets that can pay for system fleets that are five times bigger than the average numbered Imperial fleet. (Yes, 60% of 70% of 3% of GWP allows worlds like Trin to pay for something a lot bigger than the fleets described in MT:Rebellion Sourcebook). Granted, a sector fleet has more than five numbered fleets.

Ahh, the perils of relying on canon...

My preferred playground is CT plus interesting bits from later editions, so I can't comment on MT:Rebellion Sourcebook and I lack the time to read my pdf copy.

I can comment on Striker which indicates 30% of a worlds military budget is paid to the 3I. There are lots of reasons why this number shouldn't be taken as hard data, however as an indicator it is still valid. The question becomes one of why I should believe your implied position that an Empire of many, many tax paying, hi-pop worlds cannot if desired, totally crush the system defences of one High Pop world within its own borders.

The Spinward Marches, for instance, has 11 (Or 22 if you count the reserve fleets. Or 29 if you count the duchy navies; but there's no evidence to say how big those other fleets are). Still, smashing a planetary navy is going to cost. And you don't want to make the other high-population worlds believe that you might do the same to them. It has been argued that the high-population worlds ARE the Imperium. They're the ones that funds and build the ships that go into the Imperium's fleets.

Don't confuse the desire to be liked, with respect. The 3I commands respect, it earns that respect by providing security from outside threats and ensuring a degree of civility and trade between member systems. The high pop worlds don't have to like the 3I, they do have to pay taxes and for that they get a degree of interstellar stability.

And as I mentioned before (you must have missed it), there are no examples in history of small nations defying bigger neighbors in the face of steep odds, is there?

Didn't miss it, thought it was a rhetorical question. Every watched "300", it was based on fact. Ever looked at a RL map, its full of small nations. Global even continental unification has eluded the efforts of big neighbours throughout RL history.

I can mention Afghanistan vs the British & Russians several times. Veitnam held off the US. North Korea is still independent despite world opinion. Britian held off the German war machine in WW2. Turkey held off Britian, ANZACs anf French in WW1. Norway held off Russia in WW2. I can go on...

As I say, I thought the question was rhetorical or at least not a serious one!

(Side note: There are eight units to a Tigress squadron).

Depends on your choice of rules poison and whether you think 8 units is a practicle sub-unit for a Battleship or Dreadnought formation, I don't.

The referance for the 8 ships per BatRon comes from Fighting Ships, a document so flawed that IMHO it is nothing but Imperial propaganda and mis-information. It most certainly is not an authoritative essay on the structure and capability of the Imperial Navy.

That depends on the tech level of the world.

Absolutely. I'm still discussing high pop worlds run by religious fanatics, they don't generally have high stellar TL's.

If it's Trin or Mora or Glisten or Rhylanor, they'd laugh themselves silly over something that size.

Then send something more substantial. I don't run with the theory the Imperial Fleet lacks the assets or the will/funds to use them. I do run with the theory don't use the 10lb sledgehammer when the 8lb one will still flatten them.

You DO have exhaustive figures about the potential profits, it seems, since you can make such a positive statement. Care to share with the rest of us?

Lol, its you trying to convince me that its worth giving up my nice safe merchant role for the life of a borderline criminal, risking my retirement asset, a premature death or the long term hospitality of the Imperial Navy in return for...

Sure you will get some willing to try for the peanuts being offered. But you avoid explaining how those few will maintain trade volumes after the declaration of Interdiction by a single Imperial Patrol Cruiser.

 

[Icosahedron]

Still, smashing a planetary navy is going to cost. And you don't want to make the other high-population worlds believe that you might do the same to them. It has been argued that the high-population worlds ARE the Imperium. They're the ones that funds and build the ships that go into the Imperium's fleets.
Hans

But when you've won, the planet pays you back in war debt, on top of its taxes.

Well, actually, yes, maybe you do want other high-pop worlds to to believe that if they, too, start acting stupid they can and will be taken down...

However, your argument that the high-pop worlds ARE the Imperium raises the question of how feasible is it that a high-pop world, snug in its position as one of the Imperial elite, is actually going to go rogue in the first place? Rogue worlds are much more likely to be low-pop underdogs with an axe to grind - and they're much easier and cheaper to deal with.

 

[Matt123]

Going back to the initial discussion topic (since I have zero interest in going through another version of the eternal piracy debate or the high-speed bombardment debate)

All the more suprising given the participants

, there are various technological issues that will come to bear on the issue. What are some of those issues, you might ask?

Identification of locals. Presumably, if a counter-insurgent group is operating with TL approaching Imperial, they'll be able to implement some sort of identity-verification measure that includes genetic scans. I've read that biometric ID became a major factor in dealing with insurgents in Iraq, and it seems logical that it would be a major priority for any sort of occupying power.

Interesting, can you recall where you read that?

They can talk up the benefits to be gained (medical diagnosis, easy personal credit, datanet access, etc.), but they can also decline to release anyone taken into custody without "tagging" him and entering him into their registry. There are also ways to share large quantities of information rapidly on a planet-wide level, and to make breaking an ID protocol extremely difficult, albeit not totally impossible.

The difficulty with implimenting this is twofold. Whilst the pacification is under way it is unlikely you will get widespread public co-operation with the scheme. Mind you as I write this it occours to me it may well already be implemented... The second problem is you still have to id the rebels which biometric data cannot help with.

Ease of interrogation. CT/MT (maybe other versions) has "truth drug", which makes interrogation guaranteed effective... and if you can use it as a basis for a loyalty oath, and for regular loyalty checks, and people know they're going to be checked out with it, that changes the entire picture.

Only so far as you can screen anybody entering government employment given access to enough truth drug. Try and screen the entire population through govt "Truth Interviews" and watch the chaos start.

It would help tho with interrogations and do away entirely with any need for torture/harsh interrogation. In many cases it may also make it "acceptable" (not neccesarily a death sentance) to spill the beans on your rebel family members/freinds.

There are also psionic methods, perhaps not so easily available for Imperial forces (though not impossible -- note that even the 3I has decided that psionic powers are useful, and in some time periods, was enthusiastic about them), but if you're playing in a situation where psionics aren't contraindicated... telepaths make awesome interrogators.

Less complicated logistical issues. OK, your militants control the local equivalent of the Khyber Pass, and will ambush anything coming along the pathetic road net. Imperial forces couldn't care less, as grav trucks will fly over and/or around, at altitudes you can't reach. The POL issues are also reduced, as are (potentially) ammunition issues, so the support load required is reduced as well. Maybe you can set up an ambush close to a base, but the ambushers better watch out for neural activity sensors.

Absolutely. Something to consider tho' is the relatively easy access to high tech military equipment your rebel planet had before they got invaded. Are you sure the supply air-rafts are secure from TL14 disposable missile launchers on this TL11 planet? Ditto with the neural sensors and whatever the counter is. A classic rebel ploy is to lead the occupiers to make assumptions and lull them into a false sense of security...

As an occupier, whilst ammo & POL's may not be the issue they are today, you still need to move troops, feed them in the feild, provide close support and evacuate casualties. These are all weak points exploitable by prepared & resourcefull rebels. (As are public infrastructure, police bases, transport nodes, comms nodes, local govt, etc, etc)

Extrapolating from current situations (or historical ones) is sometimes useful, but sometimes there are really and truly technological game-changers.

Yes but history has also shown where you get game-changers, a counter quickly follows. And you should never assume the rebels are stupid, un-educated or lacked access to pre-war arms merchants.

Chances are good they can convince a blockade runner to deliver 80tns of high tech counters...