System Sustainability

[Spinward Flow]

The policies of the Chinese Government have created an imbalance [M:F and age] that has resulted in a population that has ALREADY peaked and is expected to decline

It's even worse than that.

In chinese culture, what makes a person "chinese" is NOT RACIAL ... it's family names.
What race you are "doesn't matter" (per se), but what does matter is your family name.
And ... spoiler alert ... family names are patriarchal, meaning that you get your family name from your father.

What this means in practice is that ONLY BOYS grow up to become men who can carry on the family name, because only males can pass on their family name to their children and descendants. In other words, girls/women/females are substantially "irrelevant" when it comes to passing on the family name (which makes people "chinese") into the next generation.

Oh but it gets worse.

There's the 4:2:1 problem going on in chinese society right now.
What's the 4:2:1 problem, I hear you ask?

The 4:2:1 problem is:

• 4 grandparents
• 2 parents
• 1 child

When it comes to passing on the family name (grandfather to father to son) ... that 1 child had better not be a girl ... because if it is, then the current branch of the family name is going to "end" with that 1 child (because girls grow up to get married and take on their husband's family name).

Which means that the current generation of boys becoming men have grown up being treated like "little emperors" because they are the culmination of 3 families (2 pairs of grandparents and 1 pair of parents) so they have been doted on their entire lives. Now throw them into a life threatening occupation (such as the army, for example) where they could die without passing on their family names to another generation.

So there's been this tremendous bias towards "we want to have boys" among families, because boys carry the family name into the next generation, along with a zero sum game of "we don't want any girls" among families, because "having a girl" should be Somebody Else's Problem™. Therefore, out of parochial self-interest, there's a tremendous gender imbalance in the M/F ratio going into the next generation beyond the current one.

There's a reason why the One Child Policy is causing tremendous strain on chinese civic culture right now, enough so that the PLA needs to be very careful about battlefield casualties, because a LOT of their current manpower (emphasis on "man") is reliant on those 4:2:1 children coming of age and if they get slaughtered (needlessly) then there are going to be a LOT of exceptionally unhappy families moving towards unrest that could spark a revolt against central authority.

Military analysis is currently speculating that by the end of the 2020s decade, the opportunity for mainland China to invade Taiwan will have passed ... simply because of the demographic crunch on the home front, such that the military simply can't "afford" to expend the casualties necessary for an invasion operation AND survive the backlash at home, in addition to the manpower shortages they're going to be facing as demographic destiny starts to arrive. They just simply won't have the reserves needed for such an operation.



My point being that the M/F ratio is PART of the problem causing the population to decline, but it's actually the result of the One Child Policy that was intended to shrink the population (which it did and has). The M/F ratio imbalance is actually a "side effect" of the One Child Policy in combination with the way that "chinese-ness" is passed on through family names.

You can't "become" chinese (via naturalization) ... you can only be born chinese ... and for that, you have to have a father with a chinese family name ... and only fathers can pass on their family names to the next generation.
4:2:1 ... for the the 1, girls don't count when it comes to passing on the family name.

Now start thinking in terms of 8:4:2:1 and the kind of pressure it puts on the youngest generation to carry on the family name and traditions ... in a culture where ancestors are respected and deserving of veneration ... and those ancestors are going to "have ideas" (and expectations) about how their descendants should carry on the family name and traditions.

Let's just say that the "evolutionary pressure" starts getting rather intense at that point, with respect to who "wins" and who "loses" at the game of musical chairs as the population shrinks. Gets even worse when there "aren't enough wives to go around" because of the M/F imbalance, making the pressure cooker of competition to pass on family names to the next generation get even more intense.

 

[bookwyrm]

Technology Level - Traveller

wiki.travellerrpg.com

Tech Level Comparison Chart - Traveller

wiki.travellerrpg.com

These links might help with the TL sustainability question in the OP. Or at least give some food for thought.

@Spinward Flow I remember reading about the population problem a bunch of years ago, I think it was in National Geographic (but not sure) and couldn't help but think that a focus on male children with a deemphasis on female children would cause serious problems if not addressed quickly. At the time I read the article, I think China's One Child Policy had been in effect for about 20 years and problems to be concerned about were happening. It's been about 10-15 years since I read that article, and it looks like the problems from that one policy has snowballed quite a bit into some bigger problems, as you insightfully shared in your post.

We have had many technological advances over the past bunch of centuries that were thought would bring a golden age of some sort, but which then were discovered to have unintended consequences. I wonder what kind of unintended consequences would come from that kind of System Sustainability if that Technological Advance is ever reached?

 

[casquilho]

There's the 4:2:1 problem going on in chinese society right now.

What year was the one child policy ended? How long until we see the effect of that?

 

[Dragoner]

The Chinese I have talked to are not very pleased with the amount of people, and crowding. War really isn't in their nature either, this is from the Tao Te Ching:

Tao Te Ching - Lao Tzu - chapter 30

Whenever you advise a ruler in the way of Tao,
Counsel him not to use force to conquer the universe.
For this would only cause resistance.
Thorn bushes spring up wherever the army has passed.
Lean years follow in the wake of a great war.
Just do what needs to be done.
Never take advantage of power.

Achieve results,
But never glory in them.
Achieve results,
But never boast.
Achieve results,
But never be proud.
Achieve results,
Because this is the natural way.
Achieve results,
But not through violence.

Force is followed by loss of strength.
This is not the way of Tao.
That which goes against the Tao
comes to an early end.

Basically they want to retake Taiwan without a battle, which is the ideal victory according to Sun Tzu. Recently I heard a conversation with someone criticizing the one China policy, and a Chinese person from Taiwan said "It is our policy too, we are the Republic of China."

 

[Condottiere]

The Chinese upper crust has always had concubines, and if necessary, could afford to pay the designated fines, bribes, and/or send them overseas; which helped when capital flight became more urgent.

On the political socio economic level, everyone below them has gotten used to having only one kid, paying through the nose to obtain competitive advantages for them, which a significant number really can't afford, especially after the financial crash, and really have become to resent, after the pandemic lockdown, even if the regime encourages the Han to now have three.

Because generational blackmail can go a number of ways, the Biblical seventh generation, and North Korean three, currently, a lot can't afford to get married (not counting dowry demands), and if they do, can't afford, or won't have a kid.

And that's before environmental concerns, and food safety.

 

[atpollard]

While China and its situation is utterly fascinating, let's tie this conversation back to TRAVELLER and the OP so it doesn't need to be shut down for getting TOO Political.

China is relevant, we just need to bring the focus back to TRAVELLER instead of CURRENT POLITICS. ['nuff said by me.]

 

[whartung]

Yes, we can talk about the One Regina policy instead!

 

[Commander Truestar]

Yes, we can talk about the One Regina policy instead!

Which one would that be?
The Regina system?
The Regina Duchy?
The Subsector?

 

[Commander Truestar]

Yes, we can talk about the One Regina policy instead!

 

[Condottiere]

Sort of ironic that matchmaking is mentioned.

 

[Grav_Moped]

Sure, but I have trouble believing if we moved a bunch of TL 2-skilled people to an airless moon they would last very long despite their culture. Even if they were given a high tech head start.

If I'm a moderately-high-ranking noble in the 3I (or any iteration of an Imperium), I'm going to have my polity's universities research, test, and then publish plans for graceful technological degradation of low/no-atmosphere worlds. Sometimes it's not going to be possible, but if it is, I'm going to want the instructions out there, in all formats ranging from data crystals to high-durability plastic "paper".

This will be the encyclopedia, While You Still Can, Vol. 1-15. It'll be taught (in overview form) as part of ordinary education.

This is not the same as an apocalypse package (trav wiki), as it doesn't include makertech. It's merely the instructions to construct the best possible life support system/closed environment that's sustainable with the lowest necessary technology. It includes analysis of what technolgy a given population and resource base can sustain, and targets that as the level for which the fallback enviromnmental system is to be built. The second-least pleasant part of the text describes the expected casualty levels as technology regresses to a sustainable level. (The most unpleasant part is discussion of triage at what might, in other circumstances, be considered crimes against sophontry.)

 

[Grav_Moped]

Recently I heard a conversation with someone criticizing the one China policy, and a Chinese person from Taiwan said "It is our policy too, we are the Republic of China."

Been like that since the Revolution. We (the US and the West) used to treat Taiwan as the legitimate goevernment-in-exile of China, well past when that was even a remote possibility.

 

[Condottiere]

Official ambiguity.

 

[Enoki]

With mining operations, I see these as they are here on Earth today.

What you have is a "Mining town" attached to the mine itself. The town has sufficient amenities and such to keep the miners satisfied, and the management happy. There are still such towns in Arizona like, Bagdad, or San Manuel. La Rinconada (Peru) is a perfect example of a mining town on the edge of nowhere. It is a near perfect Traveller setting.

There's the equivalent of a class C starport, a 9-hole golf course with clubhouse. There is housing for the workers and a company store (think Dollar General or Walmart with credit extended to the workers). There might be things like a swimming pool, recreational center, and other such amenities for the workers and management too.

If the operation is big enough, there's a parallel 'free' town that the company doesn't own with similar amenities along with things like questionable vices and such available. So, the company might not offer bars, nightclubs, bordellos, and such, but the parallel 'free' economy does. This town / economy could very well be run by a syndicate or gang of a criminal nature as well.

La Rinconada is the other example. It is a "Wild West" mining operation where damn near anything goes. Gangs and mobsters run much of the economy. Everything is run on barter / unfettered capitalism. The "law" is nearly nonexistent. Again, the starport is class C.

Note: The starport does not have an "authority" or legal body operating it. Instead, it is a measure of what's available for services.

 

[Timerover51]

I was working on MTU and wanted to invent a TL level at which a planet could be 100% sustainable, regardless of planet type.

So, ignoring terraforming for a moment, if a planet of a million people lived on an airless moon, or corrosive ball of rock, there would likely be a TL where they could produce all the food and resources they require without the need of imports.

Is anyone aware of a reference in one of the many versions of Traveller where this is spelled out?

How much hydrogen does this airless rock have for fuel? Ships go through hundreds and thousands of tons of hydrogen every trip.

 

[Enoki]

How much hydrogen does this airless rock have for fuel? Ships go through hundreds and thousands of tons of hydrogen every trip.

Depends on the rocks. With a mining operation, it's very likely hydrogen is a byproduct of the smelting / refining process of the ore.

 

[Enoki]

Technology Level - Traveller

wiki.travellerrpg.com

Tech Level Comparison Chart - Traveller

wiki.travellerrpg.com

These links might help with the TL sustainability question in the OP. Or at least give some food for thought.

@Spinward Flow I remember reading about the population problem a bunch of years ago, I think it was in National Geographic (but not sure) and couldn't help but think that a focus on male children with a deemphasis on female children would cause serious problems if not addressed quickly. At the time I read the article, I think China's One Child Policy had been in effect for about 20 years and problems to be concerned about were happening. It's been about 10-15 years since I read that article, and it looks like the problems from that one policy has snowballed quite a bit into some bigger problems, as you insightfully shared in your post.

We have had many technological advances over the past bunch of centuries that were thought would bring a golden age of some sort, but which then were discovered to have unintended consequences. I wonder what kind of unintended consequences would come from that kind of System Sustainability if that Technological Advance is ever reached?

Well, it's hardly the only idiotic policy Maoist China adopted. There was the "Four Pests" campaign. Mao ordered all the sparrows in China killed because they ate the people's grain...

https://www.thevintagenews.com/2016/09/26/1958-mao-zedong-ordered-sparrows-killed-ate-much-grain-caused-one-worst-environmental-disasters-history/

The result of this program was widespread famine.

 

[Enoki]

With the above, you can always have a scenario where there is some dictatorship of one sort or another (think government E+) that has decreed something like the Four Pests campaign and the planet's population is facing starvation. The dictatorship is unwilling to admit they screwed up. The players could make a fortune if they can smuggle in a cargo of food. The downside is getting caught means some punishment worse than death at the hands of the dictatorship.

 

[Spinward Flow]

The downside is getting caught means some punishment worse than death at the hands of the dictatorship.

What are they gonna do? FEED US?!?

 

[whartung]

What are they gonna do? FEED US?!?

...to the population?

Yes.

The players could make a fortune if they can smuggle in a cargo of food.

IMHO, that's a lousy scenario.

Smuggling food in is fine, selling it to the starving is something else. Profiteering from their suffering is on another level.

Player 1: "Yes, let's see, 25,000Cr and I'll pilot the trader to Bastion V"
Hero NPC glares at that player. "WTH is wrong with you? Give me the keys, I'll fly it."
Hero NPC2 "Lock and load, I'm in", gives disparaging glare to Player 1.