The Alternate Timeline

[Mythmere]

I am by no means an expert on the canon, but I'll throw in my two cents on the Aslan Ihatei, since I'm building my own campaign in 1116 in Tobia, right where the paradox of power centers. One thing hasn't been explored by the various posters here, and it is the centerpiece of my campaign. It also seems to fit, though it might be contradicted by a part of canon I haven't read. Here goes.
Revolutions fit one of two models: either a power vaccuum already exists in the seat of power, and the rebellion occurs once the vaccuum is made apparent (French Revolution, American Revolution, Gandhi) or it is a battle from the periphery (Chinese Communists, most Eastern revolutions). My theory is that the extreme edges of the Imperium would already have been rotted through with dissent by the time the assassination ignited the powder keg. Looking specifically at Tobia, there are a number of very democratic worlds all around it, especially to trailing in Reft. If democratic (home rule) agitation reached dramatic proportions, one could see tax rebellions (no taxation without representation) springing up, and failures of payment to Imperial troops. The colonial navy could be subject to strikes by its (local) recruits. Then, into this volatile mix, the emperor is killed and a succession war begins. It could have been anything. The local planets (the tax rebels) join together in a mutual defense league (the imperial navy is completely unable to restrain the pirates from Theev and elsewhere IMTU). Tobia is isolated, paralyzed. The population is ready to overrun the Imperial power bases to gain democracy, fired by offworld agitators. The subsector duke pulls his forces in to protect himself. There is now open conflict in the most powerful part of the Trojan Reaches. Suddenly, the Aslan. Swarms of them, in ramshackle fleets. Willing to fight for land. Rather than being coopted by the Imperium, they are hired by the rebels. Smaller systems are swarmed in the course of the battles between democratic factions, Imperial factions, reformist Imperial factions, and anti-aslan factions. Tobia remains isolated in a sea of Aslan, with all non-aslan trade disappearing. There is no single group of Aslan for the capital ships to focus upon, just a demographic landslide.
That's how the Ihatei could overwhelm a powerful Imperial outpost like Tobia in exactly the way OTU describes. As long as the dissatisfaction already exists in the far-flung province.

 

[daryen]

One observation:

You would have to be really, really pissed to willingly go from being citizens of the Imperium to slaves of the Aslan.

I don't care what the tax rate the Imperium imposes. It has to be better than the "100% of your freedom, land and money" that the Aslan will impose.

 

[Mythmere]

You would have to be really, really pissed to willingly go from being citizens of the Imperium to slaves of the Aslan.

I don't care what the tax rate the Imperium imposes. It has to be better than the "100% of your freedom, land and money" that the Aslan will impose.

I agree. I think the internal discord I described above wouldn't lead to a voluntary surrender to the Aslan. But it would cause the Trojan Reach to be divided and weak; possibly weak enough to lose the weaker systems to the Ihatei. And once the smaller systems fall, the larger ones depending on metal and food from those smaller systems will be in serious trouble. Especially if Norris' fleet is patrolling the Zhodani border, not the Aslan. It has been a tendency of Imperial nations to neglect the fringes when the core is threatened; the Spinward Marches are far more important than the Trojan Reaches to Duke Norris and to the rest of the Imperium. To my mind, the real question in this scenario is why the Trojan Reach couldn't come together in the face of a common enemy. I think it makes sense to assume that all the sides were using Aslan mercenaries against each other until, too late, someone did a head count on Aslan mercenaries and ships and realized that "Houston, we have a problem."

 

[jsfrodo]

Okay, folks. Y'all have been discussing the various rhyme and reason (or the lack thereof) of the various factors to the whole MT:Rebellion scenario.

Personally, while I agree that much of the way they went about setting up and running the Rebellion left much to be desired, the basic concept can be useful.

In earlier campaigning I often thought that the "huge, monolithic, all-powerful and all encompassing" Imperium could be a bit stifling. When MT first came out, at first I was rather taken aback, but then thought about it and realized that breaking the Empire up into several more managable chunks could make for an interesting scenario. Seems like there's much more room for cross border intrigue, mercenary operations, and "lord knows what" else. Especially if the various factions settle down into stable areas, but with a fair amount of "no-man's-land" in between.

Now the whole Virus/New Era thing (while there are several things I liked about the system) was a bit much. First off, intelligent microchips that can overwrite other chips?? I'm an electronics technician by trade, and I just have a hard time swallowing that one. On top of that, what happens to the computers that were fiber-optic based?? They were supposed to be immune to radiation effects, which likely means an entirely different system than semi-conductors.

Personally, if I'd use the Virus at all, it'd be a much less effective variety, and I'd probably use it more to put an end to Lucan's and Dulinor's realms than anything else, just so they quit their squabbling.

So how's this for a scenario (pulled right off the top of my head)...

Dulinor assassinates the Emperor, runs off to Dlan, and the various factions each do their own thing. For now, we'll assume that Norris has enough problems on his plate dealing with the Vargr, the Aslan and the Zhodani (remember that somewhere in here is when we start seeing signs that the Zhos are coming apart at the seams) to spare too much effort in dealing with the rest of the Imperium, so he runs with his plan to hold out for the eventual successor.

While I loved the "Wounded Colossus" scenario, it'd put us right back to the large Imperium, so I'd probably remove Strephon early on, either by:
1) simply decreeing that it really was him in the throne room,
2) killing him off in a fleet battle, as was claimed in 1119, or...
3) just use the idea presented in "Arrival Vengeance", that he gave up the fight when he saw the cost.

After several (still negotiable how many) years of back and forth battles, raids and interstellar trench warfare, with no clear advantage for anyone, Dulinor's raid releases the Virus(modified), which does a decent job of ransacking the central parts of the Imperium, reducing Dulinor's and Lucan's realms to various bickering "pocket empires" run by the kind of power-grubbing schmucks who would work for people like Dulinor and Lucan.

It also damages the fringes of the other realms, but fails to penetrate the hearts and do killing damage. Things stabilize into several decently-sized interstellar states, separated by wide swaths of small states and single worlds.

So.... whatcha think?? How's that for a first-ever post?? LOL

 

[rancke]

Originally posted by Mythmere:
My theory is that the extreme edges of the Imperium would already have been rotted through with dissent by the time the assassination ignited the powder keg. Looking specifically at Tobia, there are a number of very democratic worlds all around it, especially to trailing in Reft. If democratic (home rule) agitation reached dramatic proportions, one could see tax rebellions (no taxation without representation) springing up, and failures of payment to Imperial troops. The colonial navy could be subject to strikes by its (local) recruits. Then, into this volatile mix, the emperor is killed and a succession war begins. It could have been anything. The local planets (the tax rebels) join together in a mutual defense league (the Imperial navy is completely unable to restrain the pirates from Theev and elsewhere IMTU). Tobia is isolated, paralyzed. The population is ready to overrun the Imperial power bases to gain democracy, fired by offworld agitators. The subsector duke pulls his forces in to protect himself. There is now open conflict in the most powerful part of the Trojan Reaches. Suddenly, the Aslan. Swarms of them, in ramshackle fleets. Willing to fight for land. Rather than being coopted by the Imperium, they are hired by the rebels. Smaller systems are swarmed in the course of the battles between democratic factions, Imperial factions, reformist Imperial factions, and anti-aslan factions. Tobia remains isolated in a sea of Aslan, with all non-aslan trade disappearing. There is no single group of Aslan for the capital ships to focus upon, just a demographic landslide.
That's how the Ihatei could overwhelm a powerful Imperial outpost like Tobia in exactly the way OTU describes. As long as the dissatisfaction already exists in the far-flung province.

That scenario could work (at least until Norris realizes that the Zhodani aren't going to attack; then he takes half a dozen of the fleets he has conveniently assembled in Vilis and goes collect his back taxes from Tobia[*]). But it doesn't result in an Aslan-dominated Tobia subsector. It results in a Republic of Tobia with a few million Aslan citizens who swear fealthy to the republic and not to any Hierate clan.


Hans

[*]Well, being Norris he may decide to let Tobia decide its own fate as long as he is sure they're not going to become a threat.

 

[alanb]

Originally posted by jsfrodo:
So.... whatcha think?? How's that for a first-ever post?? LOL

Very brave.

No, of course it was very good.

The real problem, essentially, is the Solomani. It's very easy to write off Dulinor and Lucan. It's not so easy to rub out the Sollies. (Your limited Virus might work.)

Short of something like Virus, it can take a bit of handwaving to explain why the Sollies didn't keep rolling on into the Imperium, especially if you assume that Margaret and Craig's factions were seriously weakened as well.

You either have to assume that the Sollies broke down into internal conflict - just like the Imperium, and right when they were at the brink of victory - or just that they broke down due to war weariness, after years and years of grinding warfare on high population worlds. This is plausible enough, but there is little evidence of this occurring in other wars in canon.

I'm happy enough simply to work with the Hard Times setting, and assume that the big powers are out of the way for a decade or two. Maybe Lucan and Dulinor took each other out, or maybe not. Maybe the Solomani will recover, or maybe not. It doesn't matter - civilisation must be preserved (or looted) now.

This does what I want it to do. It doesn't necessarily require a contrived stability.

Of course, if you do really need to mess up the Solomani, it's not that difficult. The Old Expanses is a major weak spot for them. This is a major part of their territory which is essentially an undigested Imperial sector. It's likely that the local Solomani Grand Wizards are just the former Imperial Nobles wearing new hats. It wouldn't be too hard to imagine them being alienated by harder line SolSec types from elsewhere in the Confederation. And yes, by 1130, they might have the muscle to make their secession stick, or at least take a long time to be defeated.

Alan Bradley

 

[rancke]

Originally posted by alanb:
Short of something like Virus, it can take a bit of handwaving to explain why the Sollies didn't keep rolling on into the Imperium, especially if you assume that Margaret and Craig's factions were seriously weakened as well.

Not really. One of the defining features of the Solomani Confederation is the Solomani Sphere. Lots of Solomani who would support expansion to fill the entire sphere may well not support expansion past that limit.


Hans

 

[Mythmere]

That scenario could work (at least until Norris realizes that the Zhodani aren't going to attack; then he takes half a dozen of the fleets he has conveniently assembled in Vilis and goes collect his back taxes from Tobia[*]). But it doesn't result in an Aslan-dominated Tobia subsector. It results in a Republic of Tobia with a few million Aslan citizens who swear fealthy to the republic and not to any Hierate clan.
(Hans)

I think that if Norris sees the ability to essentially become monarch of the Domain of Deneb, but there are hostile forces on three sides (even if the Zhos are weak), he will dig in for defense, not send ships into Tobia. Tobia is months away from him even at jump 6, and warships are generally jump 3 or 4. Also, I think Tobia will fall to the Aslan very quickly from lack of food. Many of the human planets in the Reach have had Aslan contact for centuries, and I think there would be many humans who would form Aslan clans in order to reap the benefits of Aslan civilization, much as Aslan live in the Imperium. Norris would probably send a few destroyers rather than his capital ships (gunboat diplomacy off the coast of Africa by the British springs to mind as the model) and they would limp back with the information that Tobia, Gazulin and Albe were in Aslan control with the shipyards working overtime and swarms of smaller vessels (enough to make a 1,000 dton destroyer head for the hills) guarding the new Aslan territory. Norris's reaction? Send in the diplomats, not the fleet. Tlaukhu vessels might be waiting for his ships on the next pass 6 months later, and he can't afford even small losses when he's surrounded by enemies.

 

[Gordon]

There are some great ideas and interesting themes here. I'm going to dig out some of my campaign notes from way back. MTU diverged from canon at the Fifth Frontier War. We played that game over and over, going through the possibilities suggested by various strategies. In the end we had to look beyond the board game to consider a bunch of political consequences, and we ended up with a fairly altered Spinward Marches.

It's a good job I got another copy of the Spinward Marches supplement, my original getting heavily marked up with pencil denoting new borders, X-boat routes, governments and notes. The Solomani Rim was less dramatic, but I got a second of those so I could mark up my original there too. After that, the differences from canon made most subsequent publications source material only, which got cribbed as inspiration for several hundred pages of our own making.

 

[Anthony]

The big problem with Tobia falling to the Ihathei is a matter of relative power: Tobia is pop-A port-A TL-F. If you add up the total aslan fleets for the entire sector (including the net effects of relative TL), the Aslan have enough for a 2:1 or 3:1 military edge. Which, given the logistical constraints and the fact that most worlds aren't going to be too keen on sending their entire fleet into the cause, basically means Tobia can hold off the rest of the sector put together.

The only plausible explanation for the fall of Tobia is that the planet chose to change sides.

 

[Mythmere]

Hi Anthony. I'm not explaining myself well, or so many articulate people wouldn't be misunderstanding me. Not that I don't see your argument, but let me try and state more clearly what my position is, so we can be on the same page.

I think the subsector of Tobia became convulsed with internal anti-Imperial strife before the rebellion. THen, when the rebellion began, a number of the ships of Duke Quinn's fleet headed coreward against the Vargr. Then the ihatei hit, and the not-so-military Duke kept the majority of the fleet in Tobia system to protect the capital. Aslan take over the rest of the subsector and siege Tobia system. Fleet at that point can't break out into the Aslan forces that are now playing defense. THen, probably a food rebellion overthrows Tobia system and the system surrenders.

 

[Anthony]

Originally posted by Mythmere:

I think the subsector of Tobia became convulsed with internal anti-Imperial strife before the rebellion. THen, when the rebellion began, a number of the ships of Duke Quinn's fleet headed coreward against the Vargr. Then the ihatei hit, and the not-so-military Duke kept the majority of the fleet in Tobia system to protect the capital. Aslan take over the rest of the subsector and siege Tobia system. Fleet at that point can't break out into the Aslan forces that are now playing defense. THen, probably a food rebellion overthrows Tobia system and the system surrenders.

Main reason I ignored what you said is that I don't think Tobia is dependent on food for more than luxury purposes. There simply isn't enough production and cargo capacity out there to handle Tobia's full food needs.

Secondary reason is that if you limit yourself to canonical Ihathei, instead of assuming a major invasion by half the sector, Tobia can simply rebuild its fleet and go annihilate the Ihathei, probably creating a mini-florian league.

Third reason is that seiging a system is very difficult in Traveller, because you have to block a rather large number of possible routes out.

 

[Mythmere]

Main reason I ignored what you said is that I don't think Tobia is dependent on food for more than luxury purposes. There simply isn't enough production and cargo capacity out there to handle Tobia's full food needs.

I imagine Tobia produces huge quantities of synthetic food, and possibly enough to maintain itself under peacetime conditions. But there are two Ag planets within jump 2 or 3 (Berg and New) and I can't imagine that Tobia hasn't come to defend on that food supply for a portion of her needs. Note: only a portion, which addresses the issue about not enough capacity to feed all of Tobia. That's agreed between us for sure. But in wartime, food shortages are artificially created by hoarding, especially in a place that knows it depends on outside food sources. I think a severe food shortage of five or six months is entirely credible.

Secondary reason is that if you limit yourself to canonical Ihathei, instead of assuming a major invasion by half the sector, Tobia can simply rebuild its fleet and go annihilate the Ihathei, probably creating a mini-florian league.

Well, in my own campaign I'm going to change what actually happens in the Reach; these posts are an attempt to argue that the canon description is possible (as opposed to probable, which it isn't, as has been pointed out by those, like you, who have enough familiarity with TCS to evaluate the odds). Hence, I'm going to stick to canon or my whole point is blown. So why doesn't Tobia rebuild its fleet? Because Tobia falls within a year (resulting from the food panics). If you don't buy the food panics, then I agree, Tobia has the ability within about a year to field a fleet that can push the Ihatei around.

Third reason is that seiging a system is very difficult in Traveller, because you have to block a rather large number of possible routes out.

Agreed. But if you control all the systems within about jump 3 then food isn't going to get through in any large quantity. There are 13 systems within jump 3 of Tobia, and of these, only Ayldem, a Droyne planet, would be capable of stopping the Ihatei.

So actually, here's a different hypothesis than the defection of Tobia - if the droyne of Ayldem decided to help the Aslan, then the blockade of Tobia (and the fleet clout) suddenly becomes quite possible.

I wonder if the droyne decided to get a wee bit imperialistic in the middle of an Aslan tide?

 

[Anthony]

Assuming Tobia actually gets a significant amount of food from Berg and New (it probably doesn't get much from New, which is a class D port) then it probably has enough merchant shipping to kick the Aslan around. In any case, there's another problem:

Lets say food riots on Tobia cause the government to fall. This isn't very likely, but it's possible. Who do you think will take over:
a) The aslan, who are responsible for the food shortage and have no actual political base on Tobia?
b) A human demogogue, probably favoring 'kicking the kittycats back where they came from'?

 

[Mythmere]

Posted by Anthony:
Assuming Tobia actually gets a significant amount of food from Berg and New (it probably doesn't get much from New, which is a class D port) then it probably has enough merchant shipping to kick the Aslan around. In any case, there's another problem:

Lets say food riots on Tobia cause the government to fall. This isn't very likely, but it's possible. Who do you think will take over:
a) The aslan, who are responsible for the food shortage and have no actual political base on Tobia?
b) A human demogogue, probably favoring 'kicking the kittycats back where they came from'?

Excellent points, both. I think we are hitting on the points where a flip of the coin would turn history. I believe it's about even up what sort of demagogue takes power, depending on the existing government. Duke Quinn was seen as non military, and I have postulated already that he kept the fleet in rather than sailing out. This would tend to suggest that the demagogue would be a hawk, not a surrenderer.

But if the demagogue was a home rule secessionist who believed (possibly correctly), that the Aslan would support home rule for Tobia, then the populace might back him.

And I realize that I have just ended up with *your* scenario as the same as mine: Tobia turns itself over to the Aslan. Nicely done.

 

[mad13142000]

I still don't see the various Imperial leaders remaining separate in the face of invasions from the Aslan and Vargr. One would think they would cease squabbling for the time to unite and kick the stuffing out of any invasion of 'Imperial Space' by aliens...
Of course I HATE the virus Timeline, so...

-MADDog

 

[Ran Targas]

I agree 'Dog, a good alien invasion would definitely unite the factions, atleast it would in the movies!

But are Vargr and Aslan alien enough to unite the entire human population against them? Is there enough disatisfaction with the human rulers that a change wouldn't be tolerated or even embraced?

I do believe the Barons and Dukes would unite, if only to save the aristocracy from unravelling.

 

[rancke]

Originally posted by Mythmere:
I think that if Norris sees the ability to essentially become monarch of the Domain of Deneb, but there are hostile forces on three sides (even if the Zhos are weak), he will dig in for defense, not send ships into Tobia. Tobia is months away from him even at jump 6, and warships are generally jump 3 or 4.

No, the Zhos are strong. They could overrun the Domain if they wanted to. But they don't, and eventually Norris is going to realize that.

The Aslan _Ihatei_ and the Vargr are weak. Norris' deputies can hold them off indefinitely with third string forces. Meanwhile the Domain is on a war footing. That means reactivating scores and hundreds of mothballed capital ships and laying down scores and hundreds of minor ships.

Norris would probably send a few destroyers rather than his capital ships (gunboat diplomacy off the coast of Africa by the British springs to mind as the model) and they would limp back with the information that Tobia, Gazulin and Albe were in Aslan control with the shipyards working overtime and swarms of smaller vessels (enough to make a 1,000 dton destroyer head for the hills) guarding the new Aslan territory.

Norris would be kept apprised of events by jump-6 couriers. Once the pressure began to mount on Tobia (assuming for purposes of argument that the ihatei were numerous and powerful enough to put that sort of pressure on Tobia, which I don't believe they are) he would balance the various needs of different parts of his domain and scrape up something to send to help Tobia. Remember, Tobia represents several percent of his fighting force. Tobia's shipyards are busy maintaining Norris' forces and building new ships for him. It makes no sense for him to just abandon them.

Try reading up on the way the British juggled forces during the Napoleonic wars. It was absolutely vital for them to keep the French navy bottled up in Brest, but did that prevent them from scraping up a squadron to operate in the Indian Ocean? (Even better analogy, did that make them order the East India Company's ships to sail to Brest?)

Norris's reaction? Send in the diplomats, not the fleet. Tlaukhu vessels might be waiting for his ships on the next pass 6 months later, and he can't afford even small losses when he's surrounded by enemies.

He can afford small losses a lot better than he can afford the loss of Tobia's shipyards.


Hans

 

[rancke]

Originally posted by Mythmere:
But if the demagogue was a home rule secessionist who believed (possibly correctly), that the Aslan would support home rule for Tobia, then the populace might back him.

And I realize that I have just ended up with *your* scenario as the same as mine: Tobia turns itself over to the Aslan. Nicely done.

Except that just as the ihatei lacks the strength to conquer Tobia they also lacks the strength to help Tobia against Norris. Now, the Tobians may be able to hold out against Norris on their own, if Norris decides that he doesn't want to pay the butcher's bill that reconquering Tobia would cost him (he can do it, but it will cost him). But any assistance the Aslans could give Tobia would be a minor nuisance to Norris at best. So why would our hypothetical demagogue voluntarily put himself under an Aslan clan lord? (Note that, BTW: One Aslan clan lord. The most he can hope for is the lukewarm support of one Aslan faction, which means a lot less than the total Aslan strength available).

And what's in it for the clan lord that the Tobians would be willing to pay? Land? Hardly.


Hans

 

[Anthony]

Possible Tobia involves basically 'honorary Aslan', in which case Tobia isn't under an Aslan at all, it's just allied itself with some clan. Not sure if such a concept actually exists.

Assuming Tobia has some reason to want to split itself off from the Imperium, allying itself with the Aslan might be productive in terms of trade and/or avoiding harassment by ihatei, who may not be a threat but are certainly likely to be an annoyance.