The Alternate Timeline

[Mythmere]

Rancke, all your points are absolutely correct. I'm not trying to show that the canon outcome is the most probable outcome, merely that it is POSSIBLE, which has been challenged by those using arguments such as yours and also information about relative fleet strength and economic clout.

I especially like your analogy to the British fleet during the Napoleonic war. In that context, let me point out that the fleets were JUGGLED, and the admiralty was terrified that their luck would fail (with the French slipping out of Brest or grabbing Gibraltar from Toulon. I greatly respect your opinion as one of the experts on canon, so here is my request:
rather than reading my scenario as an argument about what is LIKELY, could you read it as an argument about what is POSSIBLE? I would love to hear your feedback along those lines. Is it possible that concern about the Zho would keep Norris from sending enough ships to retake Tobia?

As to Tobia, there are systems with split clan governments; if Tobia was split between two Tlaukhu clans, that would unify a lot of force; especially if the clans were of two blocs.

I'd love to hear your feedback. The feedback you have given so far is all correct, but doesn't necessarily refute that my scenario is POSSIBLE.

Sorry for emphasis in caps if that doesn't read correctly. Should be italics, but that takes a lot time to type.

 

[rancke]

Originally posted by Mythmere:
Rancke, all your points are absolutely correct. I'm not trying to show that the canon outcome is the most probable outcome, merely that it is POSSIBLE, which has been challenged by those using arguments such as yours and also information about relative fleet strength and economic clout.

That's just it. I don't think it is remotely possible. If I did, I would support you enthusiastically. I'm what other people have described as a 'canonista', because I think sticking to canon is the only way you can keep a shared universe consistent, and IMO inconsistency is a real belief suspender snapper.

But that all presupposes that the canon is consistent in the first place. When it isn't, I am as far from being a canonista as you can get.

I especially like your analogy to the British fleet during the Napoleonic war. In that context, let me point out that the fleets were JUGGLED, and the admiralty was terrified that their luck would fail (with the French slipping out of Brest or grabbing Gibraltar from Toulon.

But there's a difference in Norris' situation that you may not appreciate. His biggest threat isn't a threat at all. If the British had reduced the Brest squadron too much, the French would have gotten out. If Norris weakens the Grand Armada in Vilis, does the Zhodani attack? No, they do not. And I certainly don't believe the Zhodani would be able to mount an attack on the Domain without some preliminary shifting of forces. Assuming, as I do, that Norris has a half-way decent scout network, he will feel able to shift a few reserve fleets to strengthen his corewards and his rimwards borders.

rather than reading my scenario as an argument about what is LIKELY, could you read it as an argument about what is POSSIBLE?

That's how I always (try to) look at attempts to explain weird canon. My basic philosophy is that any assumption that, if true, will fit some bit of canon should be regarded as true. But that only works if the assumption itself works.

Is it possible that concern about the Zho would keep Norris from sending enough ships to retake Tobia?

Over what time frame? As 1117 turns into 1118 and into 1119 and into 1120, do you think he will keep adding every reactivated squadron and every new-built ship to the Grand Armada?

As to Tobia, there are systems with split clan governments; if Tobia was split between two Tlaukhu clans, that would unify a lot of force; especially if the clans were of two blocs.

There are ten Thlakhu blocks. We don't know how uneven their relative strength is, but I doubt that the two strongest could represent more than, oh, let's say a third of the total Aslan strength. But your clans won't be able to bring all that strength to bear. The logistics of star travel means that taking over a neighboring system is far more profitable for a clan lord than taking over one twenty parsecs away: He can ferry many more supporters there with the same number of ships. And any ships stationed there is only one jump away if he should be attacked. So his biggest threat is his neighbors. That means he can't send off all that many of his own warships, lest his neighbors be tempted to take over his world.

I'd love to hear your feedback. The feedback you have given so far is all correct, but doesn't necessarily refute that my scenario is POSSIBLE.

Well, there are several different parts, not all equally implausible:

1) The ihatei has the strength to conquer Tobia. I flat out don't believe it.

2) The Aslan clan lords could theoretically muster enough strength to conquer Tobia. Well, yes. They do after all represent several hundred subsectors.

3) The Aslans can cooperate enough to arrange such an expedition. I don't believe it. The original description of the Aslans makes a point that the Aslans "are not and never have been" able to cooperate, except in the face of a threat.

4) Any single clan can muster enough strength to conquer Tobia. Possibly. Some of the Top Ten are awfully big.

5) Any clan could send off enough strength to conquer Tobia without exposing itself to being taken over by the other clans. I very much doubt it.

6) Tobia wants to leave the Imperium. Sure. No problem. Wanting to exchange the Hierate for the Imperium, though?

7) Norris would allow them to. Considerably more iffy, since the Trojan Reach is part of Norris' responsibility. My image of Norris just don't include any tendency to shirk his responsibilities.

8) The Aslans can make a difference in Norris' ability to retake Tobia. Some difference, of course, but not much.

9) Tobia's ruler will pay Aslans land to help him. Sure, if he thought they were worth it. Of course, he would require them to swear fealthy to him, in which case Tobia remains a non-Aslan world.

10) Tobia's ruler would voluntarily swear fealthy to a Thlakhu clan. No. Can't come up with any scenario that would make him do that.

One final note: Once you decide that a piece of canon doesn't work and decide to change it, why not change it for something half-way believable?


Hans

 

[Mythmere]

But the fleet power is not ridiculously out of whack. Tobia subsector has a population of 26,980 million. This means that a fleet with a sticker price of 202,350,000 MCr is hanging around in the vicinity.

Aslan population in the Trojan Reach is as follows:
Tlaiowaha: 24,973 million
Hkea'as: 146 million
Goertel: 24,397 million
Silraaihe: 82,089 million
Ranib: 21,028 million
Nora'a 174,026 million

So the ANNUAL Aslan naval budget in the Reaches would be 244,994,250 MCr

In other words, if the Aslan see an opportunity to gain land, would they allocate a year's naval budget to equip their landless sons with ships? I think the answer is yes: each clan would independently make that decision. This armada would be divided into a minimum of 10 independent fleets, probably more like 50.

Ranke, you mentioned that the merchant traffic in Tobia could fight off the Ihatei. Looking at these numbers, it is the other way around. Aslan merchanters could take the entire subsector of Tobia, leaving the heavy ships to mass on Tobia.

Although the Aslan average tech level looks to be somewhat lower than the Imperial, the vast bulk of the Aslan population comes from TL D worlds.

Even if the fleets squaring off are TL13 with 16% more money spent against TL 15, the TL 13 fleet is doubled in the second year, and the TL 15 fleet is internally reinforced by only 1/10. The second year shows an overwhelming Aslan fleet superiority.

As I look at the numbers, I'm no longer clear why conventional wisdom sees an Aslan victory as so impossible.

 

[mad13142000]

Sorry, still don't buy it. One could make the recent comparison that the U.S. military has a 2 tl advantage over the Iraqis..Then one division easily won over the 4 or 5 divisions facing them.
So I still don't see the Vargr and Aslan so easily over-running Imperial sectors. Either the Imps kick them piecemeal, or the various factions re-unite for the express purpose of kicking out the non-humans..

-MADDog

 

[rancke]

Originally posted by Mythmere:
But the fleet power is not ridiculously out of whack. Tobia subsector has a population of 26,980 million. This means that a fleet with a sticker price of 202,350,000 MCr is hanging around in the vicinity.

Aslan population in the Trojan Reach is as follows:
Tlaiowaha: 24,973 million
Hkea'as: 146 million
Goertel: 24,397 million
Silraaihe: 82,089 million
Ranib: 21,028 million
Nora'a 174,026 million

So the ANNUAL Aslan naval budget in the Reaches would be 244,994,250 MCr

In other words, if the Aslan see an opportunity to gain land, would they allocate a year's naval budget to equip their landless sons with ships?

In a word: No, I don't believe they would. You see, the ones who hold the purse strings (the clan lords) has little incentive to do so and lots of incentive not to. The fact that they equip ihatei fleets at all is a tribute to their sense of tradition. I don't believe any clan lord would jeopardize his ancestral lands in doing so.

Do you know the game Diplomacy? Imagine a Diplomacy game where an America with 30 support centers was added. The seven Old World countries could conquer all this extra space provided they can agree to strip their own supply centers bare and send their 34 units across the Atlantic. All it takes is trust that none of the other countries will order their units home as a surprise move and take over all those undefended supply centers.

It is my belief that the Aslan clan lords are participants in a 4000 man perpetual Diplomacy game. They can't afford to send off all, or even a sizable fraction, of their regular forces. They can't even afford to send off all their ihatei. And they can't afford to equip the relatively few ihatei they do manage to send off with top-of-the-line military escorts.

And they don't. The one ihatei expedition we have canonical information about belonged to the Loaktarl (See AM1), a clan that ontrolled a good part of four subsectors. The first ihatei fleet they sent out in over a generation comprised 50,000 ihatei in 10 armed transports...

Rancke, you mentioned that the merchant traffic in Tobia could fight off the Ihatei.

I don't think I did. A merchant would be at a disadvantage against a 30,000 T cruiser, even an obsolescent TL 13 one. A 20,000 T TL 15 cruiser wouldn't be.

Although the Aslan average tech level looks to be somewhat lower than the Imperial, the vast bulk of the Aslan population comes from TL D worlds.

According to Steve Higginbotham, GM of multiple TCS games, a TL 13 force is at a 5 to 1 disadvantage against a TL 15 force of the same size (Reasonably sane designs assumed on both sides). And, of course, ihatei ships are obsolescent. That means they are at a further disadvantage. If they are TL 12, the disadvantage is 20 to 1.

Even if the fleets squaring off are TL13 with 16% more money spent against TL 15, the TL 13 fleet is doubled in the second year, and the TL 15 fleet is internally reinforced by only 1/10. The second year shows an overwhelming Aslan fleet superiority.

As I look at the numbers, I'm no longer clear why conventional wisdom sees an Aslan victory as so impossible.

The regular Aslan forces needs a 5 to 1 numerical advantage to achieve parity. Add to this the question of how much of their military budget that is invested in defenses and the problem imposed by fighting a war 20 parsecs away, and the numbers looks a bit less overwhelming.

And, once again, a clan lord has little motive to fight a war 20 parsecs away. Sending off an ihatei fleet once in a long while when the clan has accumulated enough old, outdated, and above all cheap ships, yes, that will score him some political points on the domestic front. Fighting a war in the neighboring system where the gains will be under his direct control, yes. But fighting a war 20 parsecs away? There's preciously little in it for him.


Hans

 

[Mythmere]

Hans, I thank you for your input. IMTU the utter collapse of Tobia probably won't happen as per canon: as you said, if canon is broken, replace it with something believable. You have made your case very well, so here I merely speculate rather than debate, presenting my argument in one place:

There is political discord, democratic agitation, home rule, and secessionist terrorism at a high level in Tobia. Duke Quinn has trouble paying the navy. (Total Imp population in TR: 118,080 MCr, Total naval forces in Trojan Reach: 885,600,000 MCr). Tobia subsector has fleet of about 202,350,000 MCr, half of which is colonial fleet, half of which is Imperial. Colonial fleet is TL 14, Imperial is TL 15.

Rebellion begins in 1116. Various Aslan clans decide to send Ihatei into the Imperium, allocating one year's production to the invasion. (this compares more to one turn's income in Risk than to abandoning production centers in Diplomacy). All standing Aslan navies stay where they are, maintaining status quo. Most clans become party to a two-year "on your honor" accord not to attack each other during the invasion. Ten ihatei fleets of about 244,994,250 MCr each head into Tobia by 1117. These are TL 12 fleets b/c they are the older ships, not the new construction.
In 1116 Duke Quinn sends half of his Imperial fleet and half of his colonial fleet coreward to deal with Vargr invasions. Remaining fleet in Tobia: 50,587,500 MCr at TL 14, 50,587,500 MCr at TL 15.

Assuming that the ratio of 5:1 would stand with the TL2 difference between TL12 and TL14 (as btw/ 13 and 15), let's say that Quinn puts one of his fleets on defense and one on offense. Let's say the colonial fleet runs into one of the Ihatei fleets. Five times Quinn's MCr is 252,937,500, compared to the Ihatei MCr of 244,944,250. The ihatei fleet is defeated, but not much of the colonial fleet is going to return. There are still nine ihatei fleets available to fight the Imperial fleet. With this sort of superiority of numbers it is likely that the Imperials, rather than the Aslan, would be the ones subject to being destroyed piecemeal. Let's say that, shocked by the defeat of the colonial navy, Quinn keeps his TL 15 fleet at Tobia system while the Aslan occupy the rest of the coreward/trailing Trojan Reach with virtual impunity. Let's also say that some of the TL 14 ships taken by the Aslan go back into service. The Imperial navy takes a bunch of freighters to raid New, but New happens to have two of those Ihatei fleets (or some similar situation in which an inferior Imperial fleet jumps into two of the unallied Aslan fleets, which are both willing to fight together when given this sort of opportunity).

Anyway, that's my picture of the canon scenario, plausible or not. I think it's possible, though it calls for bad tactics on Quinn's part and unusual cooperation among the Aslan clans.

 

[rancke]

Originally posted by Mythmere:
There is political discord, democratic agitation, home rule, and secessionist terrorism at a high level in Tobia.

Sure, why not.

Duke Quinn has trouble paying the navy.

Why?

(Total Imp population in TR: 118,080 MCr, Total naval forces in Trojan Reach: 885,600,000 MCr).

This all depends on what figures you use. For the last couple of years I've been using GT figures (I converted when I helped out with the pre-playtest of the ill-fated first version of GT:Imperial Navy). I get a total GWP for Tobia of 464,642 billion Crimp (of which Tobia contributes BCrimp420,000). The other three subsectors in Trojan Reach (don't forget them, they contribute to the regular navy at Quinn's disposal) has GWP totals of BCrimp93,653 (Gazulin), 168,000 (Sindal, which is to say Albe), and 230,124 (Pax Rulin). Note that using CT figures tend to give you larger figures. They're all in the same ballpark, though.

Tobia subsector has fleet of about 202,350,000 MCr

Assuming each world pays 1% in tax to the Imperium, Tobia subsector contributes 4.646 trillion Crimp to the Imperial military, which, if we assume the IA gets 10%, corresponds to 41.8 trillion credits worth of navy. Just how this is distributed between regular and colonial forces is important, since we are assuming that the regular forces are stationed in Vilis. But the really interesting part is Tobia's planetary defense budget. The average military spending of an Imperial worlds is said to be 3%. That means that if Tobia pays 1% to the Imperium, it has 2% to spend on its planetary forces. Assume 60% of that goes to the planetary navy, we get system defenses worth FIFTY trillion credits

If, that is, Tobia only spends 2% on its planetary defenses. An average implies that some spends less and some spends more. I don't know about you, bu I consider it much more likely that the border worlds spend more and the core worlds spend less than the other way around. So I could easily see Tobia spend 3 or 4%.

...half of which is colonial fleet, half of which is Imperial. Colonial fleet is TL 14, Imperial is TL 15.

Subsector navy and Tobia planetary defense forces will be built to TL 15, since the shipyard that builds and maintains them is TL 15. Having a colonial fleet that is less than TL 15 only makes sense for the subsectors that doesn't have a high-pop TL 15 world.

Rebellion begins in 1116. Various Aslan clans decide to send Ihatei into the Imperium,

How fast does the news reach the Hierate? How long does it take for the 29 to work out an agreement given the communications lag? And why would the various clan lords make such an agreement? Many of them have been rivals for longer than the Imperium has existed. The Ikhtealyo bloc (which, btw, dominates the Aslan part of Trojan Reach) are proponents of peaceful relations with the Imperium and stands to lose heavily if it comes to war. Anything that benefits one clan will be an unpleasant event for some other clan. "The Aslans are not and never have been able to cooperate".

And, again, there's no reason incentive for the clan lords to aid an attack on the Imperium. Nor is there much incentive for an ihatei admiral to go to the Imperium with all those much less well defended worlds in the Buffer Zone and further spinward in Beyond and Touchstone lying there. (Mind you, I'm not saying there won't be some addle-brained admirals who'd want the glory of taking on the Imperium, but you're imagining that every clan lord and every admiral will be equally addle-brained.

...allocating one year's production to the invasion. (this compares more to one turn's income in Risk than to abandoning production centers in Diplomacy).

It doesn't work like that. A clan has as many warships as it can afford. That year's production you talk about is going to be spent on maintaining the standing fleet. The only way the clan lord can outfit an expedition is by reducing his own fleet in some way. And if he did have the money, there'd have to be someone who just happened to have that many obsolescent ships to sell him.

All standing Aslan navies stay where they are, maintaining status quo. Most clans become party to a two-year "on your honor" accord not to attack each other during the invasion.

And they all trust each other not to break that accord?

Ten ihatei fleets of about 244,994,250 MCr each head into Tobia by 1117.

It takes months for the news to reach Kuzu. Even if the 29 could hammer out an accord, it would take many months to do so. It takes time to outfit an ihatei fleet (and half the money spent on one goes to non-combattant vessels). It takes time to get from wherever these ships are outfitted to the cis-rift terminus of the Great Rift crossing. It takes about a year to get a jump-3 force across the Great Rift. It takes anothr 4 or 5 months to get from the trans-rift terminus of the Great Rift Crossing to Tobia. And all these ships has to be maintained when they get to Trojan Reach (which is dominated by a Tlaukhu bloc unfriendly to the enterprise).

Assuming that the ratio of 5:1 would stand with the TL2 difference between TL12 and TL14 (as btw/ 13 and 15),

According to Steve the effect is not transitive. Here is the chart he made for me:

TL 10 TL 11 TL 12 TL 13 TL 14 TL 15
TL 9 2/1 5/1 12/1 100/1 * *
TL 10 - 3/2 6/1 50/1 1000/1 *
TL 11 - - 2/1 5/1 12/1 500/1
TL 12 - - - 3/1 10/1 20/1
TL 13 - - - - 3/2 5/1
TL 14 - - - - - 3/1

* - can defeat any number of foes of the lower TL

So TL 12 ships face 10 to 1 odds against TL 14 ships.


Hans

 

[Mythmere]

You have convinced me!

The main factors in convincing me (if you're interested)
- reminding me that the annual fleet budget will mainly be used for repair, so your diplomacy analogy is better than the Risk analogy
- I didn't know one clan had predominance in the TR
-the 10:1 ratio of force

So, Hans, I bow to your analysis. What, then, do you think would actually happen? Any ideas? As you said, when canon is broken, replace it with something realistic.

Historically, revolutions at the core of an empire lead to breakaway nations at the fringes: something will happen out on the fringe, but what?

 

[rancke]

Originally posted by Mythmere:
What, then, do you think would actually happen? Any ideas? As you said, when canon is broken, replace it with something realistic.

Historically, revolutions at the core of an empire lead to breakaway nations at the fringes: something will happen out on the fringe, but what?

Well, I suppose we want to keep it as close as possible to the original concept, so I guess the Imperium will cut down on its patrols into the Buffer Zone to allow the ihatei to swarm all over the neutral worlds between the Hierate and the Imperium. There are some of the worlds there that will be able to resist with their own resources, but many must have been protected by someone in order to remain independent. IMO that someone is the Imperium. Norris will feel able to restore some of the regular squadrons to Trojan Reach in 1118 or 1119, but by then a lot of ihatei could be down on surfaces and be much more difficult to remove again. You could end up with a Hierate/Imperium border that touches each other. And, of course, some ihatei would manage to slip across the border and occupy bits of mostly-empty Imperial worlds.


Hans

 

[daryen]

If you don't mind some third-party intrusion to your conversation, I have a couple thoughts.

First, do notice how ridiculous that even the TNE crew felt the ihatei invasions were. MT specifically lists Glisten as having fallen to the Aslan, but the Regency Sourcebook specifically states that, while invaded, Glisten never fell to the Aslan.

Second, Mythmere, you could use your story for Tobia with just one minor detail. Assume that Tobia controlled a small, now independent pocket empire (like you suggested).

As Hans points out, the ihatei can (and probably would) take over some (if not many) of the lo-pop worlds in the Imperial portions of the Trojan Reaches.

To tie those two ideas together, the Tobia Cluster is independent. However, since they are surrounded by Aslan activity, the vast majority of the Domain populace just assume they were conquered by the Aslan. Norris probably knows better, but doesn't bother correcting the misinformation, as he intends to use it later.

As a result, Tobia (and most surrounding worlds) are not conquered by the Aslan, but everyone *thinks* the were. Later, that perception is accepted as the "real" history.

 

[Mythmere]

Please do jump in! One thing we've established is that the Aslan *could* muster a huge number of soldiers -- the numbers I used were from Galactic 2.4. Hans has decisively established that the Tobian colonial fleet could withstand virtually anything the Aslan would (given their culture and tech level) be able to throw at them. If we take from canon that a major Ihatei move took place, it would be in freighters and minor warships.

Fist and Scaladon in Tobia, and Chalchiutsomething in Sindal are the only points from which jump-2 craft can reach the Tobian Main. So Tobia can lock down the Main by splitting the fleet into five (three fifths around those systems, one fifth in Tobia, and one fifth on normal patrols. This is still enough force to hold against about anything the ihatei will have.

Perhaps if a couple of clans built a deep space fuelling station with their clunky freighters, that would allow a sudden push over the main defenses with jump-2 craft, but the craft would still have to make a landing opposed by Imperial ships of probably greater force even granting a split Imperial fleet and total surprise. Once they get on the ground they have the potential for vast numerical superiority, but how do they get on the ground?

 

[Mythmere]

Another thought on concerted Aslan action. What result if a xenophobic Imperial military officer puts down some Imperial Aslan trouble by slaughtering a bunch of Aslan including those of several other clans and visiting traders from within the Hierate? Enough to spark unity? Because that sort of thing was common in the history of Imperial nations.

 

[daryen]

I do want to state that I completely agree with Hans on Tobia. Its *planetary* navy could beat off any number of ihatei invasions. (This is even if the Imperial and colonial navies have completely left.)

Tobia would only fall if there was a concerted *clan* attack, which, according to canon, never happened. (The clans themselves only attacked the Floriani and the Glorious Empire. Everything else was ihatei.)

The other thing to remember is that there is no need to attack Tobia and the worlds around it. There are plenty of other worlds in the Reaches and there can't be that many ihatei. They would just go around the Tobia cluster (however big it would end up being) and take the easy worlds.

 

[Ran Targas]

Just a thought, Myth:

Everyone is describing this skirmish as a stand-up fight, is there no subterfuge to the Aslan invasion? If there are anti-Imperial factions on the planet, and the Aslan were providing them with hardware, a coordinated space/land strike might catch 2/3 of the Navy on the ground or at minimum power in orbit.

Is this out of character for OTU Aslan?

 

[Anthony]

Originally posted by Ran Targas:
Is this out of character for OTU Aslan?

Well, it's pretty much impossible to do. First of all, any insurgent operation on a scale to noticeably affect the security of a pop-A world is way too big to keep quiet. Secondly, your fleet will arrive spread out over hours, which will give the home fleet time to hit ready status. Third, you'll be arriving with intelligence at least two weeks out, which makes accurate coordination nearly impossible.

 

[Mythmere]

I don't think it's necessarily out of character, but I agree with Anthony, it's unworkable on Tobia system.

The theory of zillions of aslan ihatei in barely spaceworthy tubs heading in for the great land rush of 1117 makes sense if you think of it as group madness (think gold rush) fuelled by a genetic lust of land stronger than the human lust for gold. But what do these eager young Aslan encounter? Well, they swamp the worlds in the buffer zone. The Imperium can't shoot them all down: they all have different clan transponder signals. Imperium can either interdict or search aslan traffic, or define a defense zone and let the rest fall to the Aslan. Several systems may fall to a single freighter full of ihatei just because no one tried to stop it from landing.

The Imperium would end up with a weird mishmash of scattered systems invaded and hard to retake due to the number of Aslan already on the ground. Probably Tobia defends the entire 14 system Tobia main, plus any other systems within jump-3 of Tobia, retakes them if necessary, and then, I think, draws a line in the sand. Any aslan clan troops in the Tobian main or the designated systems will be destroyed out of hand as an attacker. This gives Tobia a small buffer, a sense of security, and time to wonder what an island of humanity on the edge of a huge alien culture, with possibly no more Imperium at their backs, should do. The duke will want to exchange correspondence with Norris to set his fears at rest. He will probably swear fealty to Norris in exchange for guarantees of military support if the Aslan attack. And yet the Tobian Main will be an island a subsector away from Norris' borders, because Gazulin (unlike in canon) will certainly fall if the Ihatei bypass Tobia looking for targets. So you have a separated feudal state of Tobia, waiting to see if the Imperium will survive so many parsecs away.

 

[daryen]

Originally posted by Mythmere:
So you have a separated feudal state of Tobia, waiting to see if the Imperium will survive so many parsecs away.

Yes. And, the important part of all of this (to match canon), is that everyone *thinks* Tobia was taken by the Aslan ihatei. They weren't, of course, but everyone "knows" they fell.

(Well, not everyone, Norris and his staff know the reality. But the vast majority don't. And that "popular perception" is what dictates the recorded history.)

 

[Anthony]

It's also possible that Tobia agreed to some form of friendly alliance or similar with some of the Aslan, or that the Tobia area chose to permit some of the ihathei to settle certain areas as long as they accepted fealty to Tobia. This could easily be interpreted as an 'aslan' state, even though it's in fact controlled by humans.

 

[rancke]

Originally posted by Mythmere:
The theory of zillions of aslan ihatei in barely spaceworthy tubs heading in for the great land rush of 1117 makes sense if you think of it as group madness (think gold rush) fuelled by a genetic lust of land stronger than the human lust for gold.

I'm sorry to be so unbending, but no, it doesn't make sense. For one thing, I think Aslan land hunger is quite a bit overstated. GT:AR2 tells us that 28% of all Aslans are of SL 1 or above. That means 72% are not. In other words, a large slice[*] of all Aslan males neither own land nor control it. Yet they seem to manage just fine. They're probably no happier with their landless state than any human lower class person is with his moneyless state, but they don't run amuck or commit suicide. So Aslan males obviously can control their land hunger.

In the second place, we are not talking about unhitching the mule from the plow and setting out for California. Even a barely spaceworthy tub cost many millions of credits. By my calculations each ane every ihatei costs someone in the neighborhood of 100,000 credits.

The theory of huge numbers of ihatei in barely spaceworthy tubs heading in for the great land rush of 1117 run smack dab up against the fact that no Aslan society can afford to ship off huge numbers of ihatei even in barely spaceworthy tubs.


Hans

[*] I won't say 72% because various assumptions can make the proportionate number of males in the upper classes different from the number of males in the middle and lower classes. But since upper class male have more wives than lower class males, the percentage of males that are upper class is going to be less than 28% of all males.

 

[mad13142000]

As someone who never played MT, but has TNE, what WAS Strephon doing off core when the assasination attempt took place?


I need to figure this out so I can write the mother of all Traveller adventures...
-MADDog