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Twilight 2033 Tech

Originally posted by Tom Kalbfus:
Aircraft carriers might go the way of the dodo, airplanes will have long enough ranges, that they can be flown from any airbase in the world to any point on the globe, that combined with their ability to land on any flat piece of ground means runways aren't needed either, just refueling stations.
You forget one very important thing... pilot endurance. Then again this is one of the reasons why so much research is being put into UAVs. They are already calling the Lockheed F-32 JSF the last manned fighter because it is assumed that from now on UAVs will be the preferred arial weapons platform.
 
You forget one very important thing... pilot endurance. Then again this is one of the reasons why so much research is being put into UAVs. They are already calling the Lockheed F-32 JSF the last manned fighter because it is assumed that from now on UAVs will be the preferred arial weapons platform.
The technology is such that a pilot can go to sleep in the cockpit while the fighter is on auto pilot, when it gets there or hostiles are detected on the sensors, an alarm will wake the pilot up.
 
yeah cause i know i want to face a bogey first thing when i wake up
 
Heh, just saw an in-depth news report on the Stryker. My reaction was "This is news?" The report was making abig deal about the Stryker's being wheeled instead of tracked and having all sorts of spiffy electronic kit and the thing that kept going through my mind was that other countries (namely Canada, possible a few others) have been hauling their troops around like this for years now.

What's the big deal (other than the... interesting ...idea of replacing tanks with the MGS)? ;)
 
Just a couple of thoughts:

As is typical of wars, the current war in Iraq seems to have provided an interesting reality check for a lot of theories.

In particularly, it seems that the age of the teenager with a rifle is far from over. Apparently, nothing beats having lots and lots and lots of troops, even when one side has a massive superiority in training, firepower, and technology.

You might be able to partly compensate for that by the use of drones, but somebody is going to have to be sitting around seeing what the drones see. The more drones a particular operator will have to manage, the more likely that the operator will be unable to cope with the information coming in.

More generally, I suspect that the best way to project forward to 2033 is to look back 30 years, and see how much has changed. And then look back another thirty years and see how much changed in that period.

If you do that, you may be able to get a feel for both the degree of change and continuity you would expect.

If you go back 60 years, you find a picture that is remarkably like the present, IMHO! It's all tanks, automatic weapons, cruise missiles (V1s), ballistic missiles (V2s), jets, radios, radar... All more primitive, of course, and some just beginning to appear, but most of the key elements were there.

If you look back 30 years, you find a nicely intermediate picture. More of everything, plus helicopters (which were pretty much an emerging technology in the 40s anyway, IIRC).

If you want, you can play the same game and look back twenty years, or ten. The M1 was a spiffy new wonder-toy (about) twenty years ago! It got its first real test a bit over ten years ago. In other words, it's actually quite an old design, despite its various upgrades.

That's another key: a lot of your gear is likely to remain in service for extended periods, particularly if really large scale conflicts are fairly rare. On the other hand, it is likely that this is only really true of the platforms themselves - much of the gear they carry may well be radically changed.

So the US military in 2033 could well be using replacements for the M1, M2, and HMMWV, or even upgraded versions of the latter. They would probably be using lots more electronics, better body armour, improved weapons, and be supported by a lot more UAVs and "drones" of various sorts, but really they would look a lot like the US military now.

Judging from current trends, they might also be supported by lots of "civilian contractors", of which at least some would in actual fact be mercenaries. On the other hand, it isn't obvious that this tendency is proving particularly successful in Iraq, so it is equally possible that many of the functions "contractors" are playing might well be absorbed back by the regular military. But I suspect some "contractors" would definitely still be around.

Going back to my point about teenagers with rifles: you will have your fair share of indifferent troops. These will either be conscripts, or may be reservist or National Guard types. These will be the troops that pad out the crowd scenes, even though they will be better trained and equipped than almost all of their opponents. Some, of course, may be former regulars, so calling them "indifferent troops" may be a little harsh. Let's just say that they have families and "real lives" that many of them would rather get back to.

The factor most likely to remain constant in the wars of the 2030s is that it is easier to destroy than conquer. It's easy to march into a country, destroy a conventional army, and declare victory. It's not so easy to do anything other than turn around and march out again afterwards.

This is a likely pattern in the 2030's version of the Twilight War - "we had to destroy civilisation in order to save it."
 
I must say I have to agree with almost all of alanb's assessment. There does seem to be a need in Western militaries to incorrectly re-invent the wheel now and again. Quite possibly, a future Twilight War might start with a whole passel of new-fangled concepts, some of which get trashed, other which might not, but with a return to fundamentals, with the late-war seeing a return of "old" kit, for a variety of reasons.

Oh, and one point about "indifferent" troops. Some reserve formations can be very very good, as good as their regular counterparts, or at least close enough that they require only a short intensive refresher period. Of course, this varies widely from country to country, but still, let's not write off all reservists too quickly
 
Wow. Quite an interesting thread. Now the Stryker isn't a new idea to the US Military. The US Army and Marines looked at similiar set of vehicles back in the 1980's when the Rapid Deployment was made(Early version of Central Command). The Marines more or less adopted this vehicle pre-Styker vehicle.

Now if you look at every other Army in the world at the time the US Army was really the only one that didn't have some of these Wheeled-IFV/APC type vehicle in inventory. The 9th Infantry Division was test-bed unit that test options of using these and HMMWV's in a similar role that they play now in Iraq. Quite funny at time how history can show that just maybe... So now several Light Infantry Brigades are being converted to use these similar to how Mech units use their M2 and M113s. Also the Light Armored Cavalry Regiment is due to switch to these vehicles too.

It seems the US is following an idea what the Germans toyed with briefly in the 1980 in expanding the number Brigade in each Division. Even if it was for two completely different reasons.

Now as to what any Army would be like by 2029 or 2033. Well there seems to be a trend since basic the end of the Korea War to downsize units. Most NATO Division are usually about 2/3 the size of US or German Divisions. Same with most Pact Divisions. With the collaspe of the Soviet Union. Several units that were full equipped and Staff 'A' Divisions are now classified as Brigades. While true most of their 'B' and some of their 'C' Divisions have also been degraded to Brigades this was largely due to the fact that to begin with before reclaissification took place that is what their actual strength was.

I actually see the US and some other nation such as UK and Germany retaining select Division HQs with a Division 'Support Brigade'. These unit will no longer have component Brigade assigned, they would go to a Theather of Operation and then have Brigades assigned to them. So a Division could very well look like the 2nd Infantry in Korea(as per late 80s) with 1 Armored Brigade, 1 Mechanized Brigade, and 1 Airborne(Air Assault) Brigade. Or any other creative way such as the 1st Cavalry after Vietnam before it was organized as a run of the mill Armored Division with 1 Armored Brigade, 1 Mechanized Brigade, and 1 Air Combat Cavlary Brigade.

I do see the M1 and M2 families still being in service, although it would be greatly improvement on both families of vehicle. As well as several 'Intermediate' Brigades(motorized) made up of Stryker-type vehicles with variety of function(including version that has 120mm gun in a remote turret) that is airlift capable, which are supplemented by HMMWVs or what ever vehicle replaces it. Lets face it we all know that you can't win a modern war with all Heavy unit or Light units. You need a mixture of Heavy, Light, Medium to carry out any operation on the ground. The Heavy Brigades would still be largely be made up of Armored and Mechanized Battalions with some Stryker-type Battalion. With the Light Brigade would tend to be largely Foot Infantry, Airborne, Air Assault, Mountain troops with some Stryker-type Battalion thrown in too. The Medium would be a mixture for the most part with some being made exclusively with Stryker-type Battalions. The Medium Brigades in the future would serve as the tripwrire such as the Marine Corps and XVIII Airborne Corps did during the early days of Desert Shield.

As for airpower I do see UAV taking a larger role to. It is just a matter of time before Fighter size vehicle are ready. Bombers would still be manned, but for the time being.

I also see vast improvement with Helicopters so that what we have know in AH64, OH58, and UH60 would be rolled into one package. One where when you seen it you would really have to know what to look for to tell if it an attack platform or in the utility mode carrying troops. Both would be able to perform Recon equally. The UH60 would still be around largely for medical team uses so as not to confuse the combat helicopter with the medical ones. For the most part you would see these assigned to Combat Brigades with some Aviation Brigades left for Corps level function.

The above is my humble opinion only...

Sault RPG Player
 
As for the 'Contractor' aspect. Well as far back in history. There have always been countries who have been willing to hired mercenaries. In the middle ages most military powers had large number of their Armies made up by these soldiers. In fact it wasn't until the 1800s that it largely feel out of favor.

Germany revived it somewhat during WWII with several SS Division being raised in non-German area that they had captured. It shouldn't be surprising to see them return on the large scale. These 'Contractors' have been providing security for most diplomats and ohter functionaries for years now in far off places where you really don't want 'Soldeirs' guarding you. Even in the PGW IIRC the Guard with Schwarzkof was one of these 'Contractors'. Besides in 2000 in T2K you see mercenaries being used in large numbers in Poland.

Yet, I would tend to agree once a country would realized they were in a long prolong war these paramilitary forces(make no mistake that is what they are) would be absorbed into the Army and place in uniform. Otherwise you get what the British tend to call 'private' amries in which you have little control over unless the local commander in careful. Come to think of it the US hasn't seem to figure this out, yet.*Shrugs*

Then again if it was myself no one would be allowed to carry a weapon unless they were in a reconginized uniform of the coalition. Everyone else would be fair game for small arms target practice including these 'contract' workers. Getting off my soapbox on controlling a population now...

Sault RPG Player
 
Originally posted by saultrpgplayer:
Germany revived it somewhat during WWII with several SS Division being raised in non-German area that they had captured.
Between 1940 and 1944, the British, French and Dutch mainly relied on their colonial forces.

Without the Indian Army, there would have been no "British" Army.

These were troops either raised from their colonies, ie "non-(British/French/Dutch) area(s) that they had captured", or from areas outside their direct control, like Nepal.

And then there was the French Foreign Legion, mainstay of both the Vichyite and the Gaullist armies.

Mercenaries have never gone away.

Of course, prior to the 19th century, many European countries preferred them to potentially disloyal local conscripts, or, like Prussia, mixed the two together in the same regiments. The French revolution, and the wave of nationalism that that sparked pretty much put an end to that.

The small states in the Persian Gulf are still big users of mercs, too.
 
Never said it went away entirely, just they aren't really used as much. In WWII India, Austrilia, New Zealand, various South African, West African, and East African Nations were still part of the empire so technically they were still UK Troops.

Now yes the British have the Napalese and the French their Foriegn Legion. Spain also a small contingent of what it called the Foriegn Legion, but I believe this has been disbanded. Many of the Persian Gulf state still have there armies of largely merc with large number of British Officers. Which incidently the British have had a history having Officers seconded to other nations that are part of the British Commonwealth.

Abbott
 
Originally posted by saultrpgplayer:
Never said it went away entirely, just they aren't really used as much. In WWII India, Austrilia, New Zealand, various South African, West African, and East African Nations were still part of the empire so technically they were still UK Troops.
Not entirely. South Africa, Australia, and New Zealand (and Canada) had acheived dominion status in the early 30s and their troops were no longer considered "British" as in the Great War. The forces from those nations did serve, to greater or lesser degree, under UK command, sometimes as individual divisions, other times as corps, and, in Canada's case, fielding an army under command of 21st Army Group.

So, no, they were not Empire troops, either in fact or in law.
 
I doubt many merc outfits today can lay a claim like the Condotteri (Hawkwood, et al) during the Italian city wars in the 1400's. There are certainly mercenary/security outfits today which could be written into such roles for 2033. Some of the past decade which could be factored into any engagements include. The reousrceful GM could easily add them into an future scenario quite easily.

The List -

Executive Outcomes out of South Africs
Military Professional Resources Inc. (MPRI) here in the United States
Sandline International in the UK
Satellite Protection Services in Denmark


Something else to add to the carnage...

TR
 
First of all, the way mercenaries are used in any particular period of history really depends on the social context. In the 1400s, it was entirely normal to make a deal with a nobleman to have his followers fight for you. In the 18th century, a ruler might choose to recruit his army from foreigners rather than take too many farmers away from the land. In the 21st century, it is entirely normal to make a contract with a corporation for security related services, even outside military contexts.

What I would do in 2033 would be to have a few "governments" whose senior personnel have mercenary bodyguards (a la Afghanistan), and have mercenary cadres training their armies. In effect, these governments would survive for exactly as long as their mercenaries are there.

These mercenaries would be provided by more or less respectable corporations. As such, they would be solid professionals, and probably wouldn't engage in Thirty Years War style nonsense. On the other hand, at least some of them might be experts in "interrogation", and be quite happy to run torture-factories...

In most cases, these mercenaries wouldn't form entire units, so the private army issue wouldn't arise. On the other hand, as the "Twilight" darkens, they might find themselves commanding a bunch of miscellaneous odds and ends in the service of increasingly powerless warlords. At that point, they might start turning condottieri. After all, if they aren't being paid, and they can't go home, they might as well start finding new contracts for themselves.

These could be quite nasty opponents. They would have a solid core of veterans (often ex-Special Forces), and a bunch of followers who might be reasonably well trained (or who might be warlord/marauder rabble).

Of course, there would be other outfits with a similar composition, but different origins. For example, you might have groups of Special Forces personnel who were assigned to cooperate with local allies, ending up in a similar situation.

And if you are silly enough, you might wind up with a bit of a Colonel Kurtz situation... The horror! The horror!
 
Have you thought about bringing the year back a little (like 2020 that has bean segested) the first world powers at this time are heavely invested in the current and emraging tech espechily the US and most of that is on highend big ticket items like fighters and ships. so say mid next decade the world powers finily get round to upgrading ground forces kit, just before the comensment of hostilitys only 50-75% of catgory A uinits have bean re-equipted, the nukes fall taking out the bulk of New-Tec production and battle feild atrision acounts for much of that alredy deployed the focous of war production falls to prevousaly civilion manafactures and everyone brakes out the warstocks to equip their swelling armies with cica 1990-2010 guns and ammo made in sporting goos factorys. with little acess to ammo and spears for their new equpment in theater US forces draw on old NATO (for europe) stockpiles and since verous contractors where compeating to create the "Euro-Rifle" for the EC they lack a standrdised New-Tec rifle so they join in the braking out of old stockpiles as the war drags on more and more older techonolgys are used by all partys to continue hostilitys as they can use civilion factorys and the few suviving militry contractors are left with only their older production ficilitys as the ones for newer tecknologys wher distoried erily in the war, this goes on untill it is T2K only +20 years on the dates. new techonolgys is a moot point bacause the factories are so much slag and rubble or cut-off from the theatre of opperasion


Now all you need is a series of triger events, say economic crises in europe (and else where) leads to the colapse of the CIS and a Neo-Markist coupe in Russia that then tries to restablish the USSR and Warsaw Pact by force of arms dispite atempts at counter-coupes and ristance by formor client states this leads to intervension by US & EC forces since the UN has bean dedlocked on most matters since the mid-2000's and reduced to little more than a humanitarian orgnision and debating forum.

in Aisa arfter a "suscsfull" nulclur test by North Korea sees the cease-fire that ended the Korean war is put to paied and hostilitys recomence, in China the economic redevlopment of the 90's and 2000's lead to choas and a colapse sillmer to Russia's but this time its a three (or more) cornerd fight as the ruling comunists face Neo-Maoists and democratic/nationalist fronts and the things deteroate untill all that is left is warlords claiming to repsent the differing factions. in Indonesia an exteramest (and supposedly) Islaimic Junta ceases power under questionable cermstances and tries to annex the newly uinited Timor and Papua New Guinea as well dispite verous politicaly modrate provinces trying to susceade Austrlia backs its allies and the secessionists.

Africa freed from international introversion sees long suppressed animosities brake in to endless rounds of open warfare and enteric cleansing through out much of the continent.

the US is badly nuked and is heavely engaged in most world thearters so is ill prepeared for the invaision of its southwesten states by the revoulsonary govenment that has ceased power in Mexico.

South America is hardly hit by the world economic crises and the effects of the verous wars but along with Austrlia most probaly faires the best of all the contanants.

I have used this background for my T2K rivisons since the late 90's with grate suscess only updating slected details to fit changing world events, it means i can use most first and secound edision books with little modifacion and can use the 2nd edision rules without any hassles.
 
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