Worlds without Roads

[Timerover51]

Biter's trade volume is MCr1,812 or about 181,200 dtons per year. The assumption in Far Trader is Half is coming in, half is going out. But it may be shipping out cargo containers of food, and simply sending money back. It's more likely that food and other raw materials are shipped out and parts, supplies, and consumer goods are shipped in.

Plus the 480,000 dtons of food distributed locally, leaves about 13,800 dtons per year of local good for local distribution. This would indicate the transport network is used for 1) Food, 2) Serving the export market, and little else.

Might I ask where you are pulling your figures from? Also, assuming 5 Tons of mixed foodstuffs per Traveller dTon, with a value of 10,000 Credit per dTon, that equates to a cost per kilogram of food of 2 Credits, or roughly a Credit a pound. With an exchange rate of $4.50 per Credit, that puts the average cost of food at just under $4.50 per pound. The 2015 Subsistence Rate for the US Military was $13.85 per day, supplying about 6 pounds of food for a Class A ration. Your food costs are about twice what they should be. As a person will consume about 800 kilograms of food per year, the cost would be under your system 1600 Credits per capita per year. That is over 1/2 of your per capita income.

The costs for grav vehicles in CT (ie. from whole cloth) would seem to indicate grav vehicles cost 10x to 100x what a boat or car costs. That is, in line with an airplane. However, if you build vehicles with the different design systems, grav vehicles are not that expensive. The do cost more, but not two orders of magnitude more.

Granted, Biter does not seem to have a lot of industrial capacity, so locally built vehicles will not be a thing. And importing them imposes a severe transport tax. I think they will come into the Uncommon, rather than Rare category.

The Paul R. Tregurtha is a 1,000 foot Great Lakes bulk carrier, and was built in 1985 for about $60 million. She can carry up to 69,000 metric tons of Taconite (iron ore) pellets. A World War 2 Liberty ship, with a 10,000 ton cargo capacity, could be built for under $2 Million. Per the Bureau of Labor Statistics Inflation Calculator, 1 Dollar in 1945 is equivalent to $13.35 in 2016. That would kick the cost of a Liberty up to 26.7 Million Dollars. The inflation rate from 1985 to 2016 is @2.23 cents today to equal a Dollar in 1985. That would increase the cost of the Tregurtha to 133.8 Million Dollars.
Using the $4.50 conversion factor, a Liberty would cost 5.93 Million Credits and the Tregurtha 29.7 Million Credits. It should be noted that some of the Liberty ships built cost just over 1.5 Million Dollars.

To move a ton of cargo with a Liberty ship costs 593 Credist up-front capital costs, to move a ton of cargo with the Paul R. Tregurtha costs 430 Credits, up front capital costs. What is the up front capital cost to move a ton of cargo via a Grav vehicle?

 

[McPerth]

Not necessarily. It is entirely possible that there are several locations on a low population world that have specialized functions but have no reason to interact on a regular basis. Think of this the way a frontier area, like the Western US, was settled.

You might have one location where the government and military are concentrated. Being at a centralized location makes control and use easier and less costly. Another location might be extracting resources for export. Their only need from the government location is protection if and when necessary. That could be the government sends a system defense ship or other ship with troops to defend the location when necessary. No need for roads or regular transport otherwise.
A third location might be developing and not yet sufficiently economically viable to rate a road or fixed transportation route.

If such specialized locations exist, they will sure have some form to communication among them, as it's the only way a specialized producer population cluster may exist, as specialized means they will have supplus on some products, but lack other ones.

There is no reason that just because they are not closely linked that they will balkanize politically. We don't see that in the colonial era. Where colonies broke away and gained independence distance, not routes of communication, were the primary driver along with culture and such.

For most practical matters, distance is not measured in miles, but in time to get from one place to another and capacity to so move.

In middle ages, Barcelona was buying wjeat to Crimea while there was supplus in Castilla, as the sea communications made it cheaper to move it by ship crossing the whole Black and Mediteerranean seas than to take it by land from Castilla. What could then be considered closer for trade pourposes?

 

[McPerth]

I was to now mostly talking in general for low pop low tech planets, not specificially for Biter.

As for the specific case of Biter:

Its UWP (according Travellermap) is B354623-A. That means:

1. With an equatorial circumference of about 15000 km, distances are at most 7500 km (about the sitance from Rome to Chicago.
2. With its low gravity and its breathable atmospheric presure, air travel would be easier than in Earth. Coupled with point 1, that means no location is more than a few hours apart form any other one
3. With its TL, it can maintain an extensive grav network (more so when cupled with points 1 and 2)
4. With its B starport, it is likely to have an orbital terminal from where most outworld trade is conducted, and shuttles to most producing áreas (if they are not centralized)
5. Point 4 means there's no need for large bulk cargo movement to a centralized "warehouse", and most such traffic is just for planetary consume.
6. In resume, I see no need for a nextensive road/railroad network in Biter.

 

[tjoneslo]

Might I ask where you are pulling your figures from?

I'm using the trade map data from the wiki, which in turn was generated by the Trade map generator tool I wrote using the rules from GT:Far Trader and other rules. It is the best set of canon economic data available.

There are two errors on that table: The RU and GWP values are swapped, and the trade value should be MCr.

To move a ton of cargo with a Liberty ship costs 593 Credist up-front capital costs, to move a ton of cargo with the Paul R. Tregurtha costs 430 Credits, up front capital costs. What is the up front capital cost to move a ton of cargo via a Grav vehicle?

This is what I ran my head into. The different Traveller versions have different costs, in some cases significant, about how much it costs to build and maintain a Grav vehicle or cargo shuttle.

As McPerth points out, Biter does have a class B port and is capable of building non-starships. I.e. orbital cargo shuttles which may be a big part of the cargo transport system.

I will have some time tonight, let me pull out my favorite build system and post a few designs.

 

[epicenter00]

It is one thing that encourages me to take the advice in the original LBBs and just create my own game based on what I want (VIVA IMTU! ).

I fully agree with you; I don't really find it interesting or "realistic" myself. However, you were asking what I think goes on over on the average world in the OTU, and that's how I see it the OTU as working. It's not very interesting to me, either.

I do have to agree with many other posters, though ...once you start injecting "logic" in the Biter situation, things get kind of complicated.

If people want to participate materially in the economy of their world, they're going to go where there is infrastructure for them to plug into. Biter (which is a non-Imperial world) once had a much higher population. They lost a lot of that population. The people have probably had to displace quite a bit to adjust to the new economic reality; there's ruins of cities, but there are going to be entire towns and cities that have been abandoned over time as there were no more opportunities and the collapse of the global transportation network - in fact the number of abandoned communities may outnumber number of ones destroyed in the war. Obviously, some people are going to stubbornly cling on in isolated communities out of choice. However, it's been a long time since that war; many of those holdouts are going to have dried up and blown away; their young people are going to have made the trek (in whatever way possible) to areas that are doing economically better. Insular communities will still exist, but they aren't going to have roads or anything else going to them; they live in the boonies out of choice and aren't planning to materially participate in "economy" of their world. Anyone who actually wants to do things like sell grain and so on either moves to where there is infrastructure.

Or trade may adjust.

As I've stated before, it's entirely possible that there are no roads. Even without a proliferation of grav vehicles, you can still have a working global community with just a relatively small (compared to the planet's population) number of grav vehicles, which still eliminates the need for expensive roads to isolated communities.

Alternatively, there's nothing that says that traders aren't going to the communities directly. The per-kilometer or per-mile costs of flying a free trader are extremely low. I can't imagine it being much skin off of an off-world merchant's back to simply negotiate prices over the radio or whatever, hit a bunch of these communities, and load their wares directly aboard his or her ship; the farmers are going to get less money for this (to make it worth the merchant's time) but "less" is better than "nothing."

Without even leaving the world, the advantages of grav and scale are great. While many people imagine grav trucks ... there's bigger rewards for going larger. Players routinely fly Free Traders around all over planets. That fusion reactor makes operating a large transporter not much more expensive than operating a smaller one. I have to imagine there are "captains" who basically fly around "grav freighters." These are likely old starships with their Jump drive removed, their life support downgraded (it's not like they have to spend a week in jump and so on), and much of their fancy computers removed (again, no jump drive or stellar navigation) so they're basically sea freighters that require no water. These "ships" would simply visit communities in turn and picking up goods to take to markets. Such a freighter would be essentially like operating a starship, except over much smaller distances (and the freighter being marginally cheaper). The only thing preventing such a trade on Biter would be the actual profitability of doing runs over world's surface balanced against having to get your spare parts from off-world. If it is enough to be profitable, people will do it, allowing some "economically participating" communities to exist further out - Biter seems pretty poor but there may be sufficient market for these kinds of "grav freighter" captains to make a living.

See that the selling modifier for air-rafts in a Ni planet (pop 6-) in CT trade rules is +2, so making the aerage selling price 120%, hinting that they should be more expensive tan usually on them, even without considering the local currency value. And this is bulk selling, not retail one...

The only price I've ever seen for an Air/Raft is 600k Cr, which is the price listed to buy one (retail and I am assuming brand new). Is there a lower price if you want to ship them in bulk?

But again, I'm speaking from the POV of how the OTU is written in adventures. Somehow, despite the high costs, people are getting these grav vehicles from somewhere. Maybe they steal them. Who knows.

 

[McPerth]

The only price I've ever seen for an Air/Raft is 600k Cr, which is the price listed to buy one (retail and I am assuming brand new). Is there a lower price if you want to ship them in bulk?

Not really, unless you use the discounts for quantity buying told about in LBB4 page 43, but what I meant was that if you try to sell an air raft as speculative trtade in a NI planet (tyhe kind of planet we're talking about) odds are that you get more than those 600 kCr, so hinting that they are more expensive in this planet,

 

[Timerover51]

I fully agree with you; I don't really find it interesting or "realistic" myself. However, you were asking what I think goes on over on the average world in the OTU, and that's how I see it the OTU as working. It's not very interesting to me, either.

I do have to agree with many other posters, though ...once you start injecting "logic" in the Biter situation, things get kind of complicated.

Given what is stated about Biter, as soon as "logic" or "Real World" examples are applied, things definitely do get complicated. I have grave doubts about a population of 3 million being able to produce all that is needed to build even a non-starship, even with the Class B starport classification. As for supporting a "C" Tech Level, I would argue that is done with imports, with the local Tech Level being around 8.

Or trade may adjust.

As I've stated before, it's entirely possible that there are no roads. Even without a proliferation of grav vehicles, you can still have a working global community with just a relatively small (compared to the planet's population) number of grav vehicles, which still eliminates the need for expensive roads to isolated communities.

Alternatively, there's nothing that says that traders aren't going to the communities directly. The per-kilometer or per-mile costs of flying a free trader are extremely low. I can't imagine it being much skin off of an off-world merchant's back to simply negotiate prices over the radio or whatever, hit a bunch of these communities, and load their wares directly aboard his or her ship; the farmers are going to get less money for this (to make it worth the merchant's time) but "less" is better than "nothing."

Those isolated communities may only be producing sufficient food for their own needs, although a couple of possibilities to exist. One, they may be producing sufficient excess grain, potatoes, or equivalent to produce alcoholic beverages, similar to the whiskey production by the settlers of the frontier being traded for necessities such as sugar, gunpowder, and lead. Grain is not apt to be of high enough value for trade, while meat might be. However, meat is going to require refrigeration of some form, either a refrigerated freighter or refrigerated cargo pods. Aside from meat, the communities may be able to trade something like ginseng root, which was a trade item in Kentucky during the frontier period, wild animal skins and products, or wood from scarce or limited availability trees. You also need to plug a time factor into such trading. A Free Trader is not really suitable for bulk loading cargo, so hand-loading via sacks might be the only way to load cargo.

Without even leaving the world, the advantages of grav and scale are great. While many people imagine grav trucks ... there's bigger rewards for going larger. Players routinely fly Free Traders around all over planets. That fusion reactor makes operating a large transporter not much more expensive than operating a smaller one. I have to imagine there are "captains" who basically fly around "grav freighters." These are likely old starships with their Jump drive removed, their life support downgraded (it's not like they have to spend a week in jump and so on), and much of their fancy computers removed (again, no jump drive or stellar navigation) so they're basically sea freighters that require no water. These "ships" would simply visit communities in turn and picking up goods to take to markets. Such a freighter would be essentially like operating a starship, except over much smaller distances (and the freighter being marginally cheaper). The only thing preventing such a trade on Biter would be the actual profitability of doing runs over world's surface balanced against having to get your spare parts from off-world. If it is enough to be profitable, people will do it, allowing some "economically participating" communities to exist further out - Biter seems pretty poor but there may be sufficient market for these kinds of "grav freighter" captains to make a living.

You might want to take a look at the up-front capital costs I cited for a Liberty ship and a Great Lakes Bulk Carrier. A modified Free Trader should have about 102 tons of cargo volume. Loaded with bulk wheat, that is a 1000 tons. How much are you going to have to make off of that wheat to cover your ship costs?

The only price I've ever seen for an Air/Raft is 600k Cr, which is the price listed to buy one (retail and I am assuming brand new). Is there a lower price if you want to ship them in bulk?

But again, I'm speaking from the POV of how the OTU is written in adventures. Somehow, despite the high costs, people are getting these grav vehicles from somewhere. Maybe they steal them. Who knows.

The 1977 edition of the LBB had an air/raft at 6 Million Credits. Starter Traveller, The Traveller Book, and the 1981 edition of the LBB all use 600,000 credits. It looks like T5 uses 60 Thousand credits, and I seem to recall seeing that at least one other place. However, the load of an air/raft is only 4 tons mass. I have worked up a Grav Cargo hauler, based on the CH-37 Mojave, capable of carrying 10 metric tons internally, or slinging a cargo pod of 20 metric tons, with a top speed of 300 kph. Pricing it is proving to be a headache.

 

[kilemall]

On grain value, one should consider that it's been a few thousand more years of development, the crops have improved in the meantime, and so a ton of FutureCorn is likely to be an order of magnitude cheaper to grow and also more useful either nutritionally, or possibly for industrial/post-industrial materials use.

As for payoff- Cr500 per ton to produce, Cr100 to ship to local downport and another Cr100 to ship up, Cr300 local profit if sold to speculator for Cr1000, ship and sell for Cr4000, yields MCr4 total- rough cost Cr1200 per ton per jump, three jumps, you have Cr 400 X 100 tons profit- Cr400,000 profit over three weeks, not stellar and one isn't arming up anytime soon, but a few milk runs like that should help with the bottom line.

 

[Timerover51]

On grain value, one should consider that it's been a few thousand more years of development, the crops have improved in the meantime, and so a ton of FutureCorn is likely to be an order of magnitude cheaper to grow and also more useful either nutritionally, or possibly for industrial/post-industrial materials use.

As for payoff- Cr500 per ton to produce, Cr100 to ship to local downport and another Cr100 to ship up, Cr300 local profit if sold to speculator for Cr1000, ship and sell for Cr4000, yields MCr4 total- rough cost Cr1200 per ton per jump, three jumps, you have Cr 400 X 100 tons profit- Cr400,000 profit over three weeks, not stellar and one isn't arming up anytime soon, but a few milk runs like that should help with the bottom line.

Question for you. Would you pay 4 Credits for one kilogram of flour, or to put it in other terms, would you pay $18 for 2.2 pounds of flour, or just under $9 per pound. If so, when is the last time you went grocery shopping?

Edit Note: Wheat is presently being sold at a price of 37.6 Credits per metric ton, in the Real World. Allowing for Biter's thin atmosphere, the production costs might be a bit higher, and the yield per acre a bit lower, I have not seen yield figures for Wheat grown at high altitudes on Earth. Unless you hit a planet where there is essentially a famine going on, I very much doubt that any speculator is going to buy wheat for 1000 Credits per ton mass.

 

[aramis]

Question for you. Would you pay 4 Credits for one kilogram of flour, or to put it in other terms, would you pay $18 for 2.2 pounds of flour, or just under $9 per pound. If so, when is the last time you went grocery shopping?

Edit Note: Wheat is presently being sold at a price of 37.6 Credits per metric ton, in the Real World. Allowing for Biter's thin atmosphere, the production costs might be a bit higher, and the yield per acre a bit lower, I have not seen yield figures for Wheat grown at high altitudes on Earth. Unless you hit a planet where there is essentially a famine going on, I very much doubt that any speculator is going to buy wheat for 1000 Credits per ton mass.

That is only about 3× local asking prices in Anchorage (~$6.50 for 2lb, at Wal*Mart). And roughly what the price is in Bethel, Alaska. Expect it to be about $20-$25 in Eek or Egegik...

Also, remember, the price of packaged goods, like a 2lb bag of flour, are considerably higher than bulk grain...

 

[atpollard]

Biter could also ship the wheat to the city, grind it into flour and export those 'Little Debbie' cakes. Value added, baby. That's the way to go for Interstellar shipping.

(There is just something about the atmospheric composition on Biter that gives sponge cake an amazing texture and a unique flavor that you just can't find anywhere else.) :rofl:

 

[Timerover51]

Biter could also ship the wheat to the city, grind it into flour and export those 'Little Debbie' cakes. Value added, baby. That's the way to go for Interstellar shipping.

(There is just something about the atmospheric composition on Biter that gives sponge cake an amazing texture and a unique flavor that you just can't find anywhere else.) :rofl:

Works for me, but I prefer "Twinkies" myself.

 

[atpollard]

Works for me, but I prefer "Twinkies" myself.

The beauty of Twinkies is they can be shipped STL and still arrive 'fresh'.

 

[Condottiere]

Principal ingredient in anagathic drugs.

 

[Enoki]

Principal ingredient in anagathic drugs.

I thought that was MSG...

 

[flykiller]

one of the preps for lowberth ....

 

[tjoneslo]

TL10 Grav Truck

Crew: 2 total. 2 crew stations covering vehicle maneuvering system, communicator, 3 sensors.

Subassemblies: Vehicle +6, Body +6. 

P&P: 119,500-kW fusion reactor (200 year duration; no access space), 5,000 lbs. thrust standard thruster (no access space), four 58,500 lbs. thrust standard lift thrusters (lift engine; no access space). 

Fuel: 

Occ: two roomy crew stations (improved access), bunk, 3-man environmental control system	Cargo: eight 14.2-m^3 cargo holds

Armor F   RL  B   T   U
Body  3/5 3/5 3/5 3/5 3/5

Equipment
Body: AESA (scan 17, 10-mile range); small computer (complexity 4); PESA (scan 17, 10-mile range); radar (scan 21, 50-mile range); medium range radio communicator (5,000-mile range).  

Statistics
Size: [LxWxH] 20.1 m x5.02 m x2.51 m 	Payload: 36,469 kg	Lwt.: 105,977 kg
Volume: 252 m^3	Maint.: 9.69 hours (9.91 mh/day)	Price: $4,260,750 

HT: 9	HP: 4,500 [Body]. 

Aerial Performance: Stall Speed 0 kph, Drag 600, Top Speed 402 kph, aAccel 0.644 kph/s, aMR 2.5, aSR 5, aDecel 16.1 kph/s.

An example of a fusion powered grav thruster truck capable of hauling 8 dtons of cargo. With a crew of two, it can drive for 8 to 12 hours straight, covering about 3,000 km.

Based my previous estimate, Biter needs 675,000 dtons per year transport capacity. This becomes 1875 dtons per day. This means we need about 250 of these trucks. at Mcr4.26 each it costs Mcr 1,065 to buy all of them. They are build at GTL 10, which is TTL 10. This means Biter can, in theory build them and maintain them locally.

TL8 Heavy Truck

Crew: 1 total. 1 crew station covering vehicle maneuvering system.

Subassemblies: Vehicle +6, Body +6, Wheels +4. 

P&P: 4,000-kW HP diesel (no access space), 4,000-kW wheeled drivetrain (no access space). 

Fuel: 7,268 liter standard fuel tank (fire modifier -2). 

Occ: roomy crew station, bunk, roomy passenger seat	Cargo: eight 14.2-m^3 cargo holds

Armor  F   RL  B   T   U
Body   3/5 3/5 3/5 3/5 3/5
Wheels 3/5 3/5 3/5 3/5 3/5

Statistics
Size: [LxWxH] 17.7 m x4.43 m x2.22 m 	Payload: 36,469 kg	Lwt.: 52,313 kg
Volume: 174 m^3	Maint.: 29.9 hours (3.21 mh/day)	Price: $446,800 

HT: 10	HP: 3,000 [Body], 100 each [18xWheels]. 

Wheeled Ground Performance: Speed Factor 18, Top Speed 249 kph, gAccel 11.3 kph/s, gDecel 16.1 kph/s, gMR 0.5, gSR 6, Ground Pressure 9,611 lbs./sf, Off Road Speed 32.2 kph.

This is a similar wheeled ground vehicle for delivering cargo. It is almost exactly 1/10 the cost. And 1/3 the cost to maintain.

 

[Condottiere]

In the end it comes down on the available industrial base, capital, and the perceived return on investment, plus government subsidies, or actual financing.

If there's a lot of traffic, a diesel or electrical railway.

 

[Timerover51]

Just a couple of comments on your ground vehicle. Just about all of my data is in English units, so I will do some conversion.

First, the engine is listed at a 4,000 Kilowatt Diesel, which equates to 5360 horsepower. One kilowatt equals 1.34 horsepower. The vehicle is carrying 7,268 liters of Diesel fuel, which will weight 6090 Kilograms. A gallon of Diesel weights 6.99 pounds compared to water at 8.34 pounds, so has a specific gravity of 0.838. That 6090 kilograms of Diesel equals 13,428 pounds. A well-tuned Diesel may use 0.4 pounds of Diesel per horsepower-hour, a really well-tuned one might get that down to 0.375 pounds per horsepower hour, while an average Diesel will burn about 0.5 pounds per horsepower-hour. Assuming you are running at about 80% load, or say 4000 horsepower, with a fuel burn of 0.4 pounds per horsepower-hour for 1600 pounds per hour, you use up all of your fuel in 8.4 hours.

Next, there is the ground pressure of the vehicle, which is given as 9,611 lbs./sf, and I assume that the "sf" means "square foot". That would equal a ground pressure of 66.7 pounds per square inch. That ground pressure will restrict the vehicle to heavy-duty roads only, and you can expect to bog down as soon as you go off-road.

If I have a chance, I will post the data for a 1953 Tank-Transporter, which could haul up to 90,000 pounds or 40,823 kilograms. A bit slower than your truck, but probably a whole lot cheaper. I can also post the data on the 7.5 ton cargo truck, which could haul 10 tons on the highway.

 

[epicenter00]

You might want to take a look at the up-front capital costs I cited for a Liberty ship and a Great Lakes Bulk Carrier. A modified Free Trader should have about 102 tons of cargo volume. Loaded with bulk wheat, that is a 1000 tons. How much are you going to have to make off of that wheat to cover your ship costs?

I'm not really disagreeing with you here because ... frankly we don't have enough information. We're sort of driving into (yet another) one of Traveller's howling wildernesses at night without headlights.

(italics are my parameters - changing these points shifts costs considerably)

It's my impression that Traveller on-world grav vehicles are very cheap to run. Assuming that most of a starship's use of hydrogen fuel is used because of Jump operations and that normal hydrogen consumption is much lower, and that it seems that equipment in Traveller is highly overbuilt (which is the only way I can really justify the ridiculous prices for a lot of items) - the cost per mile for shipping with such a grav-hauler is going to be closer to "free" than even a penny. It may be very cheap to haul, at least over planetary distances. In particular, I don't think it's going to have the same kinds of costs as relatively maintenance heavy pre-1940s technology which has considerable overhead in terms of maintenance crews, a constant drain of POL products, and so on*. Like a Liberty Ship (iirc) used Triple Expansion engines, which were already outdated by circa 1940, but they were cheaper to operate, easier to maintain, and merchant marine crews were familiar with them. Do you have any information on how such engines compare to modern marine diesel technology? After conversions for inflation, I have to imagine modern marine diesels are cheaper to operate and certainly more powerful than triple-expansion or else nobody would have switched. When I think of this stuff, I am assuming that in the Far Future, fusion and grav require even less maintenance and fuel is dirt cheap (iirc, using unrefined fuel has no other disadvantages than misjump ... if you don't have a jump drive...).

Exporting off-world ... yeah. Probably not grain ... likely not even flour. I doubt even exporting meat (raw or preserved in some way) would be economical unless it can get some sort of reputation or origin to an off-world market that allows it to sell for a (much) higher price ... unless a neighboring world has need for food imports.


* Though there is an odd reference in Traveller 4 about some tramp freighter equivalent starship having a machinist and a set of machine tools. If a ship that small has a machinist-engineer and all those various metalworking machines and enough metal stock to mill an funeral urn, perhaps I'm wrong and 1940s technology is more apt (I guess I could argue that happens to be the engineer's hobby, but that's churlish and I sense that those machining tools are necessary for starship maintenance).