Shipyard Production

[aramis]

Ha, no.

With a reasonable dose of imperial paranoia you would probably deploy the personnel in another sector.

But the manpower is available, if we use several planets we have several times the manpower, which I think was the core point.


On the other hand there are not that many worlds in the Imperium. The majority of the population lives in ~300 popA systems, and the wast majority (~95%) in ~1000 pop9+ systems, the other 10000 systems are just noise.

Even fewer of those have starport class A and TL F, so that they can build Imperial warships.

Any sane navy makes certain there is some diversity in naval crews... if only to prevent the state-crewed ships from secession during a civil war.

There are reasons that the US military no longer wants state units. That reason was the US Civil War... state units generally fell along state lines, even if they were in federal service prior. (In fact, much of the modern US Army's and US Navy's organization harkens back to lessons learned in the USCW. Including the end of the UK-style Regimental system.)

At the very least, you want at least 5 major worlds' people on every ship. You can make use of the low-tech guys in the support train, and in the basic stewards and in the fetch-n-mop crew - and the ones who can and do adapt, you cross train into more technical fields. And you want your officers as widely drawn as your crew.

 

[welsh]

I'd think that much like it is with the "military-industrial complex" here, expansion would be something the management would get the Imperial government to subsidize or fund.

Well, obviously. That expansion is in the cost of the ships. Although it isn't included in High Guard's tables.

But physical expansion is only part of the problem. You also need skilled labour.

I used to work at an armoured vehicle plant. One of our major problems was finding enough welders who knew how to weld armour. We did big contracts, contracts we could have done much faster if we expanded ... but we wouldn't have been able to find the skilled workers to staff the expanded plant. In fact, finding skilled workers was enough of a problem as it was.

You can't just bring them in from some other system. There is a finite number of skilled workers, no matter where they're scattered to. And I don't think the experience of building 400-ton freighters is an ideal background for building 50,000 ton cruisers, any more than experience building cars translates easily to building tanks.

Here's another problem: the government isn't going to finance that expansion, knowing the bubble will burst when their procurement shrinks in 5 or 6 years. Either that's going to be money down the drain, or they're going to have to throw more money in just to keep the lights on -- i.e. they're going to end up buying another class of ship just to keep that skilled labour force from drifting off into other careers. This happens with defence procurement today.

Peacetime demand is what sets your yard capacity. It's not just about physical facilities or how much money you have.

 

[Enoki]

Well, I have about 15 years experience working in navy maintenance yards and ship yards (shops 10A, 10B, 51A, 51B, 35, 31, etc.). Anyway, I experienced repairing ships both hands on and as a supervisor with the ship's superintendent's office.
A lot of the work doesn't require highly skilled people. It requires trainable warm bodies. Sure, there is a requirement for a certain number of skilled people but a lot of them are mostly there to "step and fetch" or do mundane tasks (a favorite punishment job I put people on was sand blasting parts).

As for transferable skills, it depends on the system the person is working on. A lot of the detail fitting out is subbed out to secondary companies for completion. One of the bigger problems is not with new construction but with refitting older ships. The drawings are all out-of-date, many of the parts are no longer made, even companies that made them no longer exist.
Being able to find such parts, find alternatives is an art. I know. I got really, really good at that. ComNavSurfPac N5643 (the maintenance people) along with SubLant, SubPac, and parts of SpaWar loved to send me crappy drawings for some quote or to find parts because they couldn't.

This can be a bigger problem than building new. And, it can be some mundane part or item, but without it the ship can't operate.

As for the government financing stuff, politics trumps economic sense. Lytton shipyards was kept in business building LHA / LHD's for decades because they had political support in Congress that kept giving them work. The Navy didn't want more of this class but they kept getting them anyway. Isn't the first time, won't be the last. If a yard were in some Duke's political realm he might well want it to keep busy because it lines the pockets of powerful people he needs to keep happy. Kickbacks, payola, and graft will still exist.

 

[AnotherDilbert]

Any military establishment has to farm specialised suppliers. If you want military shipyards/aircraft manufacturers/AFV manufacturers to stay in business you have to give them steady business.

The Imperium already has plans for what to mobilise, and when, for any foreseen military scenario. In case of a war with the Zho, some parts of Corridor and other fleets will start to move towards the Spinward Marches, and certain shipyards will be ordered and payed to expand their capacity to support that massive move. This probably happens before the news has reached Capital. Perhaps the best example of this enacted are the German (&French, Russian, and Austrian) mobilisation plans before WWI.

The Imperium has in the region of (300 + 300) numbered fleets à perhaps 3 squadrons with 10 ships per squadron = 18000 capital ships. If these are replaced every 40 years, they order around 450 capital ships per year. Since a capital ship takes several years to build roughly 1000 capital ships are being built at any given time. Colonial, planetary, and client state orders add to this. If every ship is given a refit every 20 years which takes 6 months a further 18000 / 20 / 2 = ~450 capital ships are refitting at any given time. A further 18000 / 50 * 2 = ~720 capital ships are undergoing maintenance. Add to this a significant weight in escorts, boats, fighters and an even greater weight in support ships and craft.

The Imperium decides which yards are doing this work based on which yards they want available in the next war. E.g.the yards in Mora, Trin, Rhylanor, and Glisten are the basis of any warfleets in the Spinward Marches, so they will all be given regular work.

So, yes economy rules, greatly influenced by Imperial planning.

 

[AnotherDilbert]

I don't think this is quite right. CT High Guard has "The Imperial Navy may procure ships of up to tech level 15, although it also procures vessels at tech levels 10 through 14" (20).

The T20 Fighting Ships book states "At the present time (993) the Imperium possesses a mature Tech Level 14 capability on its highest-tech worlds. Many worlds possess lower TLs, and thus starship construction for the Navy is conducted at TL 12-14 to allow contracts to be spread out and to ensure maintainability once vessels are in service" (3).

The T20 Fighting Ships of the Solomani Confederation doesn't have as definitive statement on Solomani technological capabilities, but the example ships are mostly TL 13 and 14. So I'd assume the Confederation of the Rim War period also constructed starships at TL 12-14.

My basic assumptions are formed by CT. In HG combat hi-tech ships have large advantages. A TL14 ship might be as good as 3 - 5 TL13 ships and is probably cheaper. In CT:Fighting Ships nearly all Imperial warships are TL15, any TL14 ships are described as obsolete. In CT&MT it makes no sense to build warships of lower TL.

Traveller T20 might be different, I have never seen it. If you build warships of lower tech you have more yards to choose from, obviously.

 

[welsh]

A lot of the work doesn't require highly skilled people.

Remember, we're not talking about building ships. We're talking about building starships, and we're building the big ones in orbit. I'd think this requires a skilled workforce.

As for the government financing stuff, politics trumps economic sense.

Right, which is kind of implied by my earlier point re keeping the lights on. But it doesn't suggest at all that we're going to have zillions of tons of capacity: the government is not going to fund wartime construction levels year in and year out. We're going to have a small number of specialized naval yards and the bulk of shipyards will be building smaller merchant ships.

The problem is simple: after you start building 100,000 ton ships for the Navy, you're going to have to build an awful lot of Type A hulls to take up the slack when those contracts go away.

 

[AnotherDilbert]

Remember, we're not talking about building ships. We're talking about building starships, and we're building the big ones in orbit. I'd think this requires a skilled workforce.

Oh, yes, but similar skills are probably available in other orbital industries. We might increase the productivity of the skilled workers by giving them less skilled assistants, especially for repair work.

The problem is simple: after you start building 100,000 ton ships for the Navy, you're going to have to build an awful lot of Type A hulls to take up the slack when those contracts go away.

Quite. But I do not think the Type A is the typical freighter. The Free Trader is the exception, used away from the major trade routes, where adventurers thrive.

I think most trade and passengers are carried between the major pop 9+ worlds on fairly substantial ships. I can easily see raw materials carried by megaton bulk haulers. I made an attempt at modelling a high speed major trade route here:
http://forum.mongoosepublishing.com/viewtopic.php?f=89&t=118716

 

[tjoneslo]

As the resident member of the spreadsheet brigade I have learned the following things from this thread:

1) The port capacity number produced by TCS is a theoretical maximum. For wargame scenarios, like the Islands campaigns, you will have your starports working at maximum theoretical capacity for obvious reasons. For a place like the Imperium the reality of economics and lack of obvious threats means the port build capacity will be smaller, in some cases much smaller, than the theoretical. To be useful the spreadsheet should generate a more realistic number based upon economics, not just theoretical maximums.

2) It is only implied, and stated partly in GT:Starports, that Imperial naval bases are the place where the Imperial navy ships are build, maintained, and repaired. This has several implications:

A) The collection of Naval bases should have a "Port capacity" large enough to support the Imperial navy in the area. Generally this is a subsector. Based upon calculations done by Chris Thrash and Hans the Imperial subsector navy (Numbered Fleet) is between 10 and 30 million Dtons.

B) The colonial/reserve fleet is about the same size, but must be serviced at the existing ports in the subsector.

C) The merchant fleet, based upon the volume of existing trade in the Subsector, must also be serviced in the existing ports in the Subsector.

D) B + C have two outcomes. The Port capacity of the A ports in the subsector need to support the replacement building of the merchant and colonial fleets. The Port Capacity of the A, B, and C ports needs to support the maintenance and repair capacity of the fleets. These are probably distributed according to population and or trade flow. The economic breakdown for each sector (e.g. Daibei Sector) has a "Port Size" calculated based upon the cargo and passenger traffic. If you want to know where the merchant are going, start with the big ports.

3) The gap between actual and theoretical can not be filled in short periods of time. TCS states it takes 548 weeks (10.5 years) for a captured starport to begin building ships. Pocket Empires gives port upgrade times of 10 to 30 years. Meaning the port build capacity can't be brought up to maximums before the war is over.

4) The number of Imperial nobility is under 6,000. These people are who decides where the naval bases are built and what size. This number is too small to apply a statistical generalization. There are also enough exceptions (e.g. Corridor Sector fleets) is the best the spreadsheet can do is provide a generalization at the subsector level: The <N> naval bases support a fleet of <X> MdTons, requiring <Xc> dTons of build capacity. The Colonial fleet is <Y> MdTons, requiring <Yc> dTons of capacity. And the Merchant fleet is <Z> MdTons requiring <Zc> dTons of capacity.

 

[Hal]

Nice "train". Several questions pop into mind.

1) how is MgT different than other Traveller rules systems?
2) why did you assume high passage travelers only?
3) does it work with middle passage economics?
4) assuming that drop tanks were a failed experiment (since subsequent Traveller publications did not include designs with drop tanks, how does that modify your train concept?
5) would not the additional use of drop tanks require more shipyard capacity usage due to boats recovering drop tanks? How many times can a tank be reused before it becomes unsafe?

 

[Garnfellow]

Any sane navy makes certain there is some diversity in naval crews... if only to prevent the state-crewed ships from secession during a civil war.

Very interesting thought. I wonder, though, if as world population increases wouldn't diversity within that world tend to increase? Most low pop worlds with C+ starports and 9+ TL probably speak Galangic and have cultures that reasonably conform to Imperial norms. But as population increases you have more potential to get distinct subcultures.

Humans seem to love to sort themselves and others into neat categories: am I a spreadsheet universe person or not? Shall I renounce Excel and all its works?

A world of 90 billion people, even with a religious dictator for world government and super high law level, seems like it would contain a lot of potential diversity, probably far more so that that 90 million anarchy world.

Would the Imperium really say, even though world X accounts for 95% of the subsector's population, we are going to cap their numbers at no more than 10% of the navy or army population in order to avoid undue Xish influence. It's an interesting question, and could make for some interesting policy choices.

 

[Hal]

As the resident member of the spreadsheet brigade I have learned the following things from this thread:

<snipped stuff>



2) It is only implied, and stated partly in GT:Starports, that Imperial naval bases are the place where the Imperial navy ships are build, maintained, and repaired.

GURPS TRAVELLER makes assumptions differently for starports than other game systems. For example, it has shipyard modules that determine production rates. They are a capital investment such that it puts a hard limit on how many hulls can be produced per unit of shipyard.

Secondly, naval shipyards are combined in with commercial shipyards except in depot systems. Military and civilian shipyards are largely one and the same. Makes me wonder how they maintain security, but that's what they wrote.

 

[Condottiere]

It happens in Flandry, that sailors are posted on their last tour to defend their home regions, which sets off a widescale mutiny, deliberately provoked by the viceroy, when he tries to arrest the family of the commanding (and popular) admiral.

Given the apparent logistics in the Third Imperium, I doubt that even a quarter of Imperium enlisted naval crews leave their originating sector.

 

[Garnfellow]

As the resident member of the spreadsheet brigade I have learned the following things from this thread:

1) The port capacity number produced by TCS is a theoretical maximum.

BINGO. I don't think anyone here is trying to use formulas or spreadsheets to synthesize a simple, reductive OTU. But just because we can't sum up all the GWPs and get an accurate subsector naval budget doesn't mean these tools aren't useful and can't inform our understanding of the setting. All these formulas do is help point us toward the boundary conditions, no more or no less. They don't dictate absolutes.

This discussion has been very helpful to me -- I think it shows pretty clearly that pop, TL, and port capacity probably weren't limiting factors for the Confederation in Daibei during the Rim War. Which frees me to look at other explanations for why they lost this sector. If the calcs suggested that the Confederation could have only turned out 2-3 new BatRons between 993 and 998, well then that would have had to have been considered in the narrative.

 

[AnotherDilbert]

1) how is MgT different than other Traveller rules systems?

In this context MgT2 if fairly similar to HG. Jump drives are bigger, M-Drives smaller. Warships are not that similar.

2) why did you assume high passage travelers only?

I had freight, mid (3rd Class), and high (2nd Class) "carriages". I didn't bother with detailed economical calculations for anything but the high passage since it clearly worked.

3) does it work with middle passage economics?

I estimated a high passage ticket to kCr30 and mid kCr20. To travel the 10 Pc from Rhylanor to Mora in two weeks for kCr40 seems quite good to me.

4) assuming that drop tanks were a failed experiment (since subsequent Traveller publications did not include designs with drop tanks, how does that modify your train concept?

No J-6 for a start, perhaps J-4. The jump tugs would be larger and more expensive, so tickets would be more expensive.

5) would not the additional use of drop tanks require more shipyard capacity usage due to boats recovering drop tanks? How many times can a tank be reused before it becomes unsafe?

I think I had a drop tank tug somewhere... It was not very expensive if it covered multiple recoveries per day.
We have no stated design life on drop tanks, but they can be reused. The drop tanks are more expensive (and sturdier) than CT, so we can't afford to lose them every jump, but if we use them 1000 times the cost is trivial. I should probably add some costs here.

 

[flykiller]

Would the Imperium really say, even though world X accounts for 95% of the subsector's population, we are going to cap their numbers at no more than 10% of the navy or army population in order to avoid undue Xish influence.

(I ask that, and no-one answers ....)

such a policy would 1) turn away qualified people while 2) telling them the reason we are turning you away is because we don't trust you and 3) force aggressive recruitment of borderline qualified and unqualified people while 4) telling them you'll be declared competent no matter what because we need you because you are not them over there.

such a policy won't end well.

 

[Uren]

As the resident member of the spreadsheet brigade I have learned the following things from this thread:

1) The port capacity number produced by TCS is a theoretical maximum. For wargame scenarios, like the Islands campaigns, you will have your starports working at maximum theoretical capacity for obvious reasons. For a place like the Imperium the reality of economics and lack of obvious threats means the port build capacity will be smaller, in some cases much smaller, than the theoretical. To be useful the spreadsheet should generate a more realistic number based upon economics, not just theoretical maximums.

2) It is only implied, and stated partly in GT:Starports, that Imperial naval bases are the place where the Imperial navy ships are build, maintained, and repaired. This has several implications:

A) The collection of Naval bases should have a "Port capacity" large enough to support the Imperial navy in the area. Generally this is a subsector. Based upon calculations done by Chris Thrash and Hans the Imperial subsector navy (Numbered Fleet) is between 10 and 30 million Dtons.

B) The colonial/reserve fleet is about the same size, but must be serviced at the existing ports in the subsector.

C) The merchant fleet, based upon the volume of existing trade in the Subsector, must also be serviced in the existing ports in the Subsector.

D) B + C have two outcomes. The Port capacity of the A ports in the subsector need to support the replacement building of the merchant and colonial fleets. The Port Capacity of the A, B, and C ports needs to support the maintenance and repair capacity of the fleets. These are probably distributed according to population and or trade flow. The economic breakdown for each sector (e.g. Daibei Sector) has a "Port Size" calculated based upon the cargo and passenger traffic. If you want to know where the merchant are going, start with the big ports.

3) The gap between actual and theoretical can not be filled in short periods of time. TCS states it takes 548 weeks (10.5 years) for a captured starport to begin building ships. Pocket Empires gives port upgrade times of 10 to 30 years. Meaning the port build capacity can't be brought up to maximums before the war is over.

4) The number of Imperial nobility is under 6,000. These people are who decides where the naval bases are built and what size. This number is too small to apply a statistical generalization. There are also enough exceptions (e.g. Corridor Sector fleets) is the best the spreadsheet can do is provide a generalization at the subsector level: The <N> naval bases support a fleet of <X> MdTons, requiring <Xc> dTons of build capacity. The Colonial fleet is <Y> MdTons, requiring <Yc> dTons of capacity. And the Merchant fleet is <Z> MdTons requiring <Zc> dTons of capacity.

How did you find / calculate the population on the nobility?

 

[Hal]

Around 2004 or so, I used GT: Far Trader to estimate tonnage shipped between Ianic and other trade worlds, all such that the trade was handled by tramp freighters only. That gave me a ballpark figure for fuel required per week. Elsewhere in the GT books, it was mentioned that worlds with a low hydrographic value, would heavily restrict wilderness refueling of the world's water. Thus, the concept of a single refueling company opening up shop to fetch fuel from the nearest gas giant, refining it on the journey back, might be profitable. I researched the operations aspect on the ground for underground fuel storage tanks, pump rates of flow, personnel required, and yearly maintenance required. The I statted out the "oiler" transports (maneuver 3 g drives) along with a space station with jump 1 drives and a lot of spare tankage to accumulate raw hydrogen in its operational phase, and built automated gas giant fuel scooping craft whose only task was to scoop fuel and deposit it at the station. Then I set it up as a publicly held stock company. It (on paper) looked good.

That would have been the playing field (the Ianic star system) for an online campaign game of pirates versus navy scenario run double blind. The navy didn't know how/where the stolen goods would be unloaded, and the Pirates wouldn't know what the navy was doing.

Creating the details can often set up scenarios that people don't realize can cause things to happen in a particular manner. All of this was based on GT foundations that might not be valid for other systems. It also used rules for maintenance with out starports.

 

[AnotherDilbert]

(I ask that, and no-one answers ....)

such a policy would 1) turn away qualified people while 2) telling them the reason we are turning you away is because we don't trust you and 3) force aggressive recruitment of borderline qualified and unqualified people while 4) telling them you'll be declared competent no matter what because we need you because you are not them over there.

such a policy won't end well.

Depends entirely on the polity. The Imperium would probably recruit the best and send many of them to the next subsector or sector. In peacetime at least.

A small nation-state (the Swordies?) would probably recruit and station people locally, since local rebellions is something that happens to unpopular empires.

 

[Condottiere]

It's hereditary, so unless there's something obviously wrong with the heir apparent and/or the current holder of the title, selection is automatic.

 

[flykiller]

The Imperium would probably recruit the best and send many of them to the next subsector or sector. In peacetime at least.

the worst of both worlds. send the best to sectors in which they have no interest, specifically because they have no interest in those sectors.

the soviet union did the same thing. sent ethnic russians to patrol the borders and control the asian provinces, while stationing urghurs in moscow because they knew the urghurs hated ethnic russians and would fire on them with no hesitation. yeah, that works great for a decade or two for the duration of a personal career, but the citizens know it and resent it and work against it for generations, unconsciously and consciously, until that system stops functioning.