Raider vs Merchants
In this combat simulation, I abstract the merchants to a large degree. I am mostly interested in the number of merchant turrets needed to defeat the raider. Once turret numbers are known, you can allocate them as desired to merchants.
Merchants are assumed to have the following stats; MD2, JD2, Computer-2, Agility-0, Size mod -1 (under 1999 tons), Armour-0. Turrets are assumed to have 1x missile-2, 1x pulse-2, 1x sand-3 (which includes TL13 modifiers).
***** Summary *****
It takes 250 plus merchant missile batteries (factor-2) to have a chance at causing damage to our light raider. While missiles at short range and lasers at any range, automatically miss. Thats 25,000 tons of shipping, assuming a turret & gunner every 100 tons of shipping.
Alternatively it takes 70 plus missile-3 batteries to cause a single missile hit at long range. Assuming even numbers of missile, sand & lasers, thats 21,000 tons of shipping, again assuming a turret & gunner every 100 tons - not very likely for merchants.
Meanwhile our raider is scoring nuclear missile hits on our convouy at a rate of 5 hits per turn at long range, 4 hits at short range.
I think we can safely say our raider will happily attack a convoy up to, perhaps beyond, 100,000 tons of merchant shipping, if it has no escort. Virtually without any serious risk. Baring perhaps a very lucky damaging hit (19.44% chance on Surface Damage Table) on the raiders MD.
*** Combat Simulation 1. vs. 30 turrets ***
Turn 1. The Light Raider Budhyi fires at long range, 6 x missile-2 needing 6+ to hit, modified to (size mod -1, computer diff +3) 4+ (91.66%) giving 5.5 hits. 30x sand-3 battery must be defeated, needing 6+ modified to (computer diff +3) 3+ (six 0.9166 hits x 97.22% five times each), giving 4.776 hits. The merchants pulse batteries are ineffective vs the raiders missiles (needing 2+ to penetrate) & are saved for attack. 4.776 hits are rounded up to 5 hits.
The Merchants fire back, 30x missile-2 batteries, hits on 6+ modified to (defensive modifier -3, computer dif -3) 12+ (2.7%) giving 0.81 hits. Defensive fire of 4x fusion-5 batteries & 3x sand-3 batteries will reduce this easily to 0 hits. The pulse batteries need 14+ to hit, also no hits.
Results in 5 nuclear hits on the merchants, for no hits in reply.
Hmmm, at short range, the Merchants wouldn't hit with either missiles (13+ to hit) nor lasers (also 13+).
*** Combat Simulation 2. vs 300 turrets ***
Any turn at Long range.
The merchants fire 300x missile-2 batteries, hits on 6+ modified to (defensive modifier -3, computer dif -3) 12+ (2.7%) giving 8.1 hits. 4x fusion-5 batteries must be defeated on 8+ modified to (computer dff -3) 11+ (4 hits x 8.3%) leaving 4.432 hits. 3 sand-3 batteries must be defeated on 6+ modified to (computer dif -3) 9+ (3 hits x 27.77%) leaving 2.265 hits, rounded to 2 hits with HE warheads.
250 missiles hit on 12+ (2.7%) = 6.75 hits. Penetrating 4 fusion batteries 11+ (8.3%) leaves 3.082 hits. Penetrating 3 sand batteries 9+ (27.77%) leaving 0.853 hits rounded to 1 hit.
200 missiles hit on 12+ (2.7%) = 5.4 hits. Penetrating 4 fusion batteries 11+ (8.3%) leaves 1.732 hits. Penetrating 3 sand batteries 9+ (one 0.866 hit x 27.77% twice & one 0.866 hit x 27.77% once) leaving 0.31 hits rounded to 0 hits.
***Combat Simulation 3. vs 70 turrets, missile-3 batteries ***
The Merchants hit at both long range on 11+ (8.3%) and short range 12+ (2.7%). At short range 250 missile-3 batteries are needed to score one hit.
At long range 70x missile-3 batteries, hits on 5+ modified to (defensive modifier -3, computer dif -3) 11+ (8.3%) giving 5.831 hits. 4x fusion-5 batteries must be defeated on 7+ modified to (computer dff -3) 10+ (4 hits x 16.66%) leaving 2.5 hits. 3 sand-3 batteries must be defeated on 5+ modified to (computer dif -3) 8+ (3 0.833 hits x 41.66%) leaving 1.041 hits, rounded to 1 hit with HE warheads.